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Taylor On US Economy & Gold

Jay Taylor

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/taylor041104.html

Auszug:

Actions by countries like the UAE help keep the gold price artificially low and thus give insiders like J.P. Morgan and Barrick a better chance to hedge more of their gold. Barrick's hedge book is reportedly already $1.7 billion under water. What would $500 or $600 gold do to that book? What kind of disclosure would that company and its bankers be forced to tell the public if Barrick went under? So, news announcements like the one from the UAE should not be surprising. The ruling elite are most likely putting on a full court press on governments they control or have great influence over. We may see more like this, which would keep the cap on gold for a while longer. But remember that gold is so far below its equilibrium price already (somewhere between $600 and $700 or higher), that it may be very, very difficult to push the yellow metal much lower. Believe me, if they could do it, they would have kept gold from rising above $400 or even $300. But as James Turk told me yesterday, "Jay, we are winning. The global economic problems are simply too big for them to keep pushing gold lower."

weiter...

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April 12 - Gold $419.80 down $1 - Silver $8.01 down 13 cents

England’s Royal Mint 60-90 Days Behind in Silver Coin Shipments!

Zitat

Our government... teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy... Louis D Brandeis (former Supreme Court Justice)

GO GATA!!!!

You won’t see more blatant gold/silver price manipulation than we had this morning on Comex. Gold was $2.30 higher, silver 4 cents higher (both calculated from Thursday’s US close), the euro 10 lower and the yen 50 higher. The London bullion market was closed for an extended Easter holiday. All of a sudden silver was trashed by Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase. Minutes later Goldman Sachs smashed gold, even trying to hide its trades by going through a local house, Millenium.

Meanwhile oil was approaching $38 per barrel, platinum was up $33 to $937 and palladium rose as high as $345.

Why should we be surprised? The more reasons for gold to rise, the greater the attack on it by The Gold Cartel. Been that way for many years. After the horrendous time the Bush Administration had last week and with the situation in Iraq deteriorating by the day, the Working Group on Financial Markets was compelled to do what they always do, tank gold to calm down the markets. And, of course, taking the US stock market higher was an imperative.

Sour grapes on my part? Believe so if you wish, however, I am not alone on this line of thinking. From Australia’s Bill Buckler:

For many years, The Privateer has pointed to what we call the "reverse Gold barometer" to measure the seriousness of the financial situation by the fall of the Gold price. For more than two decades, the bigger the crisis, and the more that Gold would have been expected to rise in reaction to the crisis, the more it fell. The days of that "reverse Gold barometer" are numbered. We are nearing the point where Gold reverts to its TRUE historical nature and the extent of its RISE measures the severity of the crisis.

EVERY effort on EVERY front will be expended to prevent that from happening between now and the November US elections. Even if those efforts are successful (and we don't think they will be), the elections are less than seven months away. With the situation poised to go off the rails at any time, waiting seven months in comparative financial safety (by owning Gold) is not a difficult prospect at all. We could do it standing on our heads.

-END-

Gold Cartel forces managed to take down gold to $416.80 and silver to $7.79. However, their raid didn’t work so well as both precious metals came storming back late. It’s not hard to understand why when you read what JB has to say about India.

Big news is a brewin’ in the silver market. My STALKER source tells me the Royal Mint in England is 60 to 90 days behind on their silver coin shipments. Worse, word is they are reneging on orders placed when silver was at $7.50. If true, this is tantamount to declaring a force majeur (default) and when word spreads it should sent the price of silver soaring in the very near future. England is out of silver. The cupboard is bare.

This brings me back the raid today by The Gold Cartel. My STALKER source hears they are going to do all they can to take gold and silver down in an attempt to turn the funds into sellers. The cabal forces are doing so in an effort to cover as much of their short positions as they can, while they still can. Whether they will be successful in their endeavor is another matter. Today’s late gold/silver surge casts grave doubts they will get their way.

This same source tells me the Comex prices are a "disconnect" from the physical gold/silver world. If it were not for the paper derivatives manipulation, the Comex silver and gold prices would be MUCH higher, reflecting a VERY tight physical market around the world. For example, my STALKER source has had difficulty filling two $30,000 silver orders. There are bars here and there around, but nothing of size. As mentioned above, the London silver market has virtually shut down due to lack of supply. My STAKER source’s comment to me about the silver situation was "amazing." "Those dealers who do have any kind of silver in size don’t want to part with it and are holding on for significantly higher prices," he tells me.

Perhaps the start of something big! At day's end the Comex warehouse silver stocks were reduced by the following:

Registered - down 230, 471 ounces
Eligible - down 375,011 ounces
Total drawdown - 605,482 ounces

If this continues, it will spell the beginning of the end for the big silver shorts!

The gold open interest rose 224 lots to 306,643, while the silver open interest fell 474 contracts to 120,533.

Oil closed at $37.84 per barrel, not far from its contract high.

May crude oil:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/54

The dollar fell .07 to 89.22 and the euro lost 6 to 120.80.

Platinum closed at $940, up $40 per ounce. That is where the gold price ought to be.

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The John Brimelow Report

India buys; Japan confesses; Bianco growls

Monday, April 12, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.91, $7.30, with world gold at $420.50 and $ $421.05. Very high: well above legal import level. Indian Financial markets were closed for Good Friday, but local retail markets would have been functioning. With all wholesale gold bullion markets east of NY closed today for Easter Monday, India’s consistent character as a net consumer visibly asserted itself. The Reserve Bank intervened today to hold down the rupee: on the other hand industrial output was reported to have risen 7.4% in February, and a respected think-tank predicted 6.3% GDP growth next year, while raising its estimate for the FY which finished at the end of March by 0.5% to 8.7%. So the boom which has clearly bolstered Indian gold consumption seems still to be continuing.

Interestingly in view of silver’s slump on the NY open, with world silver at $8.12 at the Indian close, domestic Indian prices were only slightly below import point.

Japan had no holiday around the past weekend, but attention in precious metals focused on Platinum and Palladium, where a short squeeze seems to be underway. TOCOM traded only the Comex equivalent of 8,197 lots today and 13,127 on Friday, compared with the equivalent of 23,933 Comex contracts on Thursday. Open interest rose 1,070 Comex lots over the two days to the equivalent of 107,774 Comex.) World gold drifted upwards, closing today $1.30 above the NY finish on Thursday. (NY on Thursday traded 33,235 lots; open interest rose 224 contacts to 306,643.)

Reuters’ enterprising gold desk writer in Tokyo has been tormenting the Japanese authorities about their superficially peculiar FX Reserve non-diversification policy. (Japanese gold reserves at 1.3% of the total are the lowest of any industrialized nation except the UK and Canada. Clearly the gold/FX ratio is an index of US-poodle status.) This has produced the interesting comment from Hiroshi Watanabe, head of the MOF International Bureau:

Zitat

"Hiroshi Watanabe, head of the MOF's international bureau, separately told reporters that it was not appropriate for Japan to discuss gold purchases without a review of the framework on global currency policy. "

"In the early 1970s many industrialised nations agreed to reduce gold holdings and the framework for that agreement still existed, Watanabe said"

Previous accounts of this little known agreement have said that it froze, rather than reduced, major Central Bank holdings. See:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obi…e&s=books#product-details

Pp 170-2.) In any case, the comment further illustrates the determination of the Central Bank campaign against the role of gold, and the fact that Japan’s gold-holding policy is subservient to "International" –i.e. US – relationship considerations..

In a related story, about the possibility of gold options being traded on TOCOM, a TOCOM official is quoted saying that foreign participation generates 20% of the Tokyo gold contract’s volume, a high number.

In an interesting discussion acid even by their standards, Bianco Research contrasts the public expressions of inflation complacency by Fed Officials, with market place apprehensions:

Zitat

"So the …Fed is arguing that commodity prices have little to do with inflation…The Fed's view and the marketplace's view on inflation are diverging to a degree not seen in many years. If you were betting (and most of you are), who do you think will be correct?"

"The marketplace holds nearly an opposite view from the Fed. Wrightson and Associates wrote: "The market is taking a remarkably nonchalant approach to Wednesday's consumer price index report. Forecasts for the core CPI this month are split between a gain of 0.1% and 0.2%, with a majority leaning toward the higher number. If the core CPI does indeed rise by 0.2%, it would be the third consecutive increase of this magnitude. The core CPI would have risen as much in the first three months of 2004 as it did in the first six months of 2003.""
(JB emphasis)

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market continues to move right along according to Mike Bolser’s script. The DOW gained 73 to 10,515, while the DOG jumped 13 to 2065. The worsening mess in Iraq is having very little effect on the financial markets. Wonder how long it will stay this way?

The Bush Administration reports a vastly improving jobs picture. US employers tell a different story:

Apr 12, 2004

DuPont to Cut 3,500 Jobs

The Associated Press

WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) - Chemical giant DuPont Co. plans to eliminate 3,500 jobs, or about 6 percent of its work force, by the end of this year as part of previously announced plans to cut costs.
The job cuts announced Monday include eliminating about 3,000 positions through severance programs and about 500 positions through attrition. Most of the lost jobs will be in North America and Western Europe.
The company will also eliminate 450 contractor positions. –END-

All is well says the Fed:

Fed's McTeer says not worried yet on inflation

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer said on Monday the rapid pace of U.S. economic growth had not yet led him to worry about the potential for inflation to flare.

"I am not worried about the inflationary implications yet of the very rapid growth in the economy that we've had in recent months," McTeer said in an interview with cable news channel CNBC.

Asked whether the economic environment implied the Fed would not be forced to raise rates, McTeer replied: "I won't go beyond the wording of our last press release, which I believe said that we can afford to be patient." –END-

Right McTeer, there is no inflation:

"FOLGERS HIKES COFFEE PRICES 4 TO 6 PCT FOR FOOD SERVICES AND OFFICES, ON MAY 3."

Yep, no inflation concerns, just look at the falling gold price!

OOPS:

The Rumor Mill News Reading Room

http://www.rumormillnews.com

COLLAPSE CONTINUES AS RAW MATERIALS PRICES KEEP RISING

Posted By: Rosalinda

Date: Monday, 12 April 2004, 10:32 a.m.

source:AP, new York Times, April 10

It's not only gasoline that is getting more expensive.

According to the steel consulting firm Meps International, hot-rolled coiled steel, used by auto manufacturers, among others, has risen from $360 per ton in December to $605 per ton in April, attributed to shortages in inputs such as coke and scrap metal.
Plywood, and its alternative, called oriented-strand board, or OSB, both heavily used in housing construction have also shot up in price.
Random Lengths, an Oregon trade publication, reported that the price of 1,000 square feet of 7/16-inch thick OSB, has shot up to $503 from $170 a year ago.

Plywood has gone up similarly, from $240 a year ago to $523.
One homebuilder in California told the New York Times that the cost of the lumber for a typical entry-level home has roughly doubled in 18 months, to $24,000.

–END-

More oops:

Milk is going up 50 cents a gallon in Arizona tomorrow.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $7.2 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today April 12th 2004, an action that nudged the repo pool up a bit to $35.53 Billion.

As previously predicted the DOW now tracks almost directly on its extended trend line, the line that intercepts its previous high (11,750) on Labor Day 2004. The 30-day ma also is beginning to turn back up, albeit very slowly.

Hiding the truth

A glance at the blue line data on the "Repos" chart reveals that the day-to-day repo issuance is modulated so as to obscure the changing size repo pool 30-day moving average, which is used to steer the DOW. The daily repo data is therefore made to appear random when it is not. This concealment tactic is used elsewhere in official reporting.

For example, the BIS conceals their gold forward sales and swaps by co-mingling them with other data using the "Totals with gold" and "Totals" category of the Triennial Survey of all central bank derivative operations. Extracting the gold forward sales and gold swaps from their table of data requires one to make a subtraction operation. When this was done for the 2001 survey, the result was a gold forward sales and swaps total reaching as high as 15,000 tonnes.

Another area of official obfuscation or outright omission was reported by James Turk http://www.fgmr.com/moreproof.htm.

He found that Her Majesty'sCustom's reports show over 2,600 tonnes of gold exports (dishoarding) from the US and UK in 1997 while the widely observed World Gold Council reported less than 500 for that year. Incidentally, this huge amount exactly fit thedelivery tranche of a massive COMEX preemptive selling event in June 1996.

We also find official denials (Mattingly, Fed chief counsel) regarding FOMC transcripts mentioning gold swaps three times, so we must come to expect at all times obfuscation, evasiveness and denial from the Federal Reserve concerning their interventional operations in general and gold in particular.

Turn now to the DIVG 200 day chart at my website:

http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis

It has been my assertion since the beginning that this metric is used by the gold cartel as its principle gold war status indicator since it accounts for the value of gold adjusted for the changing value of the dollar. The gold price alone, observed by so many, somewhat conceals the true progress of the gold war's trench warfare.

The evidence for this view is as follows:

(1) The existence of a clearly defended level of DIVG = 323, the level set at the last dollar euro parity date (Dec 4, 2002). This is shown by a black line "ceiling".

(2) Subsequent to the O'Neill period's DIVG rise, we see three distinct peak defense rejection points at DIVG = 343, 353 and 363. These cardinal dwell points are not random nor can they be directly linked to any observable market price points. They strongly suggest a unitized plan selecting even multiples of the DIVG as defense points.

(3) The three defense cycles attempting to hold DIVG = 323 are most conspicuous thus are likely the product of a formal intervention.

And finally, (4) The linear phase of the DIVGs 200-day ma since December 2003 indicates a non-random, controlled, force removal tactic resulting in a smooth upward trajectory. The ultimate new ceiling (if there is to be one)is unknown at this point.

The above patterns strongly suggest a man-made process of defense in progress and may be of service to those investors interested in piercing the veil of Fed secrecy surrounding the gold market.

The gold price as indicated above is only a very small part of the true action raging in the trenches of today's gold war.

Prediction

Using the DIVG chart as a guide, a prediction can be made regarding the nextcounter attack by the gold cartel. We see the last repulse took the DIVG from 353 to approximately 343, a cardinal DIVG number (using the dollar/ euro parity of 323 as a start point). This time, beginning later this week or perhaps next Monday, I will venture the cartel will drop the DIVG from its current 363 to 353 or thereabouts, a 2.75% change.

What this means is that either the dollar will stay steady and gold will be suppressed down to $408 (a 2.75% change) or gold will stay steady and the dollar will fall about 2.7% or a combination of the two will occur. It is of course impossible to choose which of the two components (or both of them) will make up the change but a reduction in the DIVG of 2.75% will occur if the Fed's cyclical tactics are still operational.

On the brighter side, we can be satisfied that the Fed has been compelled to retreat in the gold war towards higher priced ground as a result, no doubt, of dwindling gold bullion reserves. They will exhaust their stores at a date in the future.
Mike

I read Catherine Austin Fitts's piece at the Dos Passos Table several times. It wasn’t until a subsequent reading that I realized the ramifications of her pointing out that C Rice and the Bush Administration failed to urge immediate evacuation of the South Tower after the North Tower was hit. We know that as soon as the North Tower was hit, the head of the CIA, George Tenet, made a comment referring to the Terrorists and planes. What was, and is, the matter with these folks? I used to work in the South Tower many years ago. Knowing my focus on work, I would not have left after the other tower was hit. Thus, had I still been working there, I would be a dead man today. Yet, if I were told to evacuate, I would have.

12 04 Japan may need to diversify reserves with more gold

TOKYO: Japan seems reluctant to boost its gold holdings as a way of diversifying its massive external reserves, but Tokyo may have to reconsider its stance in the future, with its reserves heavily overweight in US Treasuries.

US Treasuries are seen as among the world’s most liquid and safest sovereign securities, but financial and commodities analysts say it may be dangerous to stick to one brand, especially the bond of a country with towering twin deficits.

"We have to say that concentrating in one thing (US Treasuries) is not healthy and if the issue of diversification is raised then increasing gold should be considered," said Tatsuo Kageyama, a market analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management.

"At present Japan is not considering increasing gold, but debate about diversification should re-emerge over time and it may come to a point where Japan has to think about it seriously."

Japan’s latest reserves figures showed a record $826.577 billion at the end of March. The reserves have nearly quadrupled in the last five years. Japan has been the world’s biggest holder of external reserves since October 1999, having nearly twice as much as number two China, which held about $426.4 billion as of November.

The Ministry of Finance data showed Japan’s gold holdings at just 1.3 percent of the total reserves, with 24.60 million ounces or 765.2 tonnes — the lowest among industrialised nations with the exception of Canada and Britain.

On Thursday, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said he did not think it was necessary for Japan to boost the amount of gold it held in its external reserves.

"I’m aware of arguments about the need to diversify our foreign exchange reserves away from US assets, but I don’t agree with calls for us to hold more gold. Some diversification may be necessary, but I don’t think Japan needs to hold more gold," he said in a speech to foreign correspondents in Tokyo.

Hiroshi Watanabe, head of the MOF’s international bureau, separately told reporters that it was not appropriate for Japan to discuss gold purchases without a review of the framework on global currency policy. In the early 1970s many industrialised nations agreed to reduce gold holdings and the framework for that agreement still existed, Watanabe said.

Japan last increased its gold reserves in May 2001, when it raised the holdings to 24.6 million ounces from 24.55 million ounces.

Yen status: Japan does not disclose details of the breakdown of currencies in the reserves, but its holdings of foreign securities and deposits, about 98 percent of the total, are widely believed to be held in US dollars.

"From the standpoint of hedging, Japan should be thinking about increasing its gold reserves," Kanetsu’s Kageyama said.

Analysts also said that adding gold to its reserves could strengthen the status of the yen.

"In recent years, China has increased its reserves of gold... while Japan has kept gold reserves steady," said Akio Shibata, chief economist at Marubeni Research Institute. "China is doing that to raise the credibility of the yuan. In Japan, the reserves held in dollars are simply too big."

The United States — the world’s largest gold holder — maintains nearly 60 percent, or 8,135.4 tonnes, of its total reserves in the yellow metal. —Reuters

(END)

Silver demand news:

Companies moving to use silver instead of lead for soldering circuitry. This should triple China's demand for silver!
------

Chip makers moving to reduce use of lead Intel, National Semiconductor to begin shipping lead-free packages

http://www.infoworld.com/artic…04/07/HNreducelead_1.html

By Tom Krazit, IDG News Service

April 07, 2004

Intel Corp. and National Semiconductor Corp. announced plans Wednesday to significantly reduce the amount of lead contained within their products, the companies said in separate press releases.

Intel plans to begin shipping lead-free packages with some of its processors and chip sets starting in the third quarter of this year, and with some of its embedded processors in the second quarter. National Semiconductor's products will be completely lead-free by the end of the year, it said.

Electrical components have been attached to circuit boards using solder, a mixture of lead and tin, for decades. Lead is commonly used in the semiconductor industry as part of the package that connects the processor to the rest of the motherboard. It is considered an extremely toxic element, but semiconductor companies have found it difficult to find a different element or combination of elements that reproduce lead's electrical and mechanical properties, the companies said. Lead is also easy to obtain, and therefore cheap.

The two companies plan to use a mixture of silver, copper, and tin in their lead-free packages, they said….

-END-

Sound familiar:

Bill,

On a silver note. I scoured the worlds second largest free zone, Colon, Republic de Panama for silver and gold. We are beginning to vault in the free zone so we wanted to start out with 40,000 ozt silver and 3000 ozt gold. There are ten locations of PM traders in the zone, some very large. Mostly junk metals as far as we are concerned as we need .999 silver and .9999 or close in gold. NO ONE WOULD SELL. They all believe the market is under supplied and poised to move higher. They want to wait for the profit of a higher PM price. This zone is second only to Hong Kong.

Seems the only country that says it wants to sell is the US. So...

Sean Trainor
http://www.crowne-gold.com
sean@crowne-gold.com
0115076752730

It appears this MIDAS will be full of rants:

Bill, reading your latest and the complaints about among others, TD, I have to pass on the latest sign of TDWaterhouse chicanery, apparently for their short sellers. For the second time in as many months, I find that my WHOLE personal account(mostly gold and heavily silver stocks) of a little over $200,000 has been switched over from the cash to marging accounts. The first time it happened, I hit the roof, telling them that I had NO intention of letting short sellers borrow my stock and demanding immediate swaps of all the stocks back to cash account--which they did with multiple assurances. Now, Friday evening, they have done it again. Perhaps this is another sign of how desperate the cartel is sit on the pressure cooker lid. In my daily observation of the stock market with a streaming quote server, I have, over the last couple of months, seen increasing evidence of the most nit-picking, minute to minute attempts to keep gold/silver stocks (particularly HUI stocks) from taking off. They even paint the tape at the end of the day putting in 100 or 200 shares offered at 10 cents below the market to minimize the gain for the day.

This is PARTICULARLY evident in Golden Star.

They have shorted GSS so much here and in Canada that I wouldn't be surprised to see them get in a massive short squeeze. Two days ago a 3 million share trade went across after the closing. Friday there were two 1 million share trades. Hmmm. Are the "big boys" covering their shorts-- in the usual quiet "only for them" way?

Bob Wansbrough

Speaking of ECU, I have had a number of requests as to why I own the stock and continue to add. Here they are:

*CEO Michel Roy has turned around the company from a disaster to one which has sound promise. If there were no problems, the share price would not be as low as it is. My guess is most, or all of them, will be solved in time.

*They ought to be cash flow positive in the very near future.

*They have gained the upper hand on some nagging legal issues.

* The TSX did its best to find errors, frauds or even mistakes in all the public documentation issued by the Company without success.

* The Company, will have a 43-101 compliant technical report prepared and will then be able to release the new numbers for its mineral inventory: these numbers will come from the same database used initially, plus the recent drilling information, plus the development done in the last fives years, plus the inventory of the San Diego property that had about 1.2M tonnes in six veins but had not been included in their initial release.

* They are at the starting point of a development plan on which they have been working for years that should take ECU from a very small producer to a mid-sized one within five years. People have a tendency to forget that the most important asset ECU has is not the mineral inventory, or the properties but its human resources and its expertise in Mexico.

*While I don’t have hard numbers, people I respect believe the company’s cash flow by year end will justify a $2 Cdn. share price.

*I see silver headed for $40, maybe $20 of that by year-end. The $2 share price is based on silver at prices less than what we have today.

ECU Silver closed at 36.5 cents Cdn., up 2 cents.

Their continues to be little interest in the gold share sector. The XAU gained .10 to 101.72, but the HUI lost 1.96 to 227.53. Seems most everyone is short-term bearish.

The Gold Cartel is huffing and puffing. Maybe they will get their way. My thinking is we are due for a bullish surprise and gold is headed up from here. If gold takes out today’s high of $421.90, it should run.

The silver price managers have taken silver below $8 twice and failed to keep it there. Based on the stunningly bullish silver input that continues to come my way, I expect silver to come in 25 to 40 cents higher one day in the near future and soar from there, rising more than $1 on the session.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

bognair

Poste zwischendurch doch mal was Positives, oder gibt es das heute aus Charttechnischer Sicht nichts fürs Gold und Silber?

Kriege sonst noch das Kotzen, wenn ich mir das heutige miese Gold Cabal Spiel das Du uns so aktuell charttechnisch aufzeigst, weiterhin ansehe.

Gruss

ThaiGuru