The Daily Reckoning - An Excellent Contrarian Indicator (Mogambo Guru) - Dt. im Anhang

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An Excellent Contrarian Indicator

The Daily Reckoning

Paris, France

Monday, 26 January 2004

----------------------

*** No absurdity left behind...

*** No down payment on houses... even for marginal
borrowers. No premium for risk in bond yields... even for
marginal issuers...

*** Gold at $408... deflation in America... money supply
rebounding... suffocation... and more!

----------------------

No Absurdity Left Behind...

Last week, the Bush Administration proposed to lend money
to homebuyers with a zero-percent down payment. Addison has
more details below...

Want to get ahead in this economy? Don't get a job... get a
house. Mortgage 100% of it. Then, refinance when it goes
up.

Better yet, buy a second house!

A report on CNN tells us that houses in popular resort or
retirement areas - near beaches, mountains, lakes - have
been rising in price much faster than houses in other
places. So noticeable has been the increase that many
second home buyers believe they are making an 'investment'
when they buy.

Anything can be an 'investment.' But not all investments
are good ones. A vacation home is typically a good way to
get rid of money, but a terrible way to invest it. The
happy homeowner has to pay taxes, upkeep, and insurance
(not to mention mortgage installments)... just to keep his
'investment' from deteriorating.

But second homes in attractive areas - such as Cape May,
New Jersey and Naples, Florida - are rising in price by as
much as 38% per year, according to the CNN report. So go
ahead... enjoy the beach, and get rich!

Seeing no risk, investors continue to err on the side of
hazard. Nothing ever goes down, they think, except interest
rates... which only go down.

As long as rates go down, everything else seems to go up -
including junk bonds. Jim Grant reports in Forbes that the
average 10-year junk bond yields only 6.5%. Investors take
on the extra risk of owning junk without asking a penny in
extra compensation. It is absurd, of course, but what
isn't?

"We are in a period unlike anything since the 1930s, when
the world is confronting deflationary forces," said New
York fund manager Arnold Schmeidler to the Asia Times.
Falling inflation rates allow interest rates to fall, too.
People borrow more... and bid up prices for financial assets
and property.

Those who have financial assets get richer - for a while.
Those without them get poorer; wages, at the lower end of
the scale at least, have gone nowhere in the last 30 years.
The middle class disappears.

"American auto companies are selling their production at
zero interest rates because there is excess capacity,"
Schmeidler continues." But China is building auto plants to
make hundreds of thousands of vehicles, so we have extra
capacity being brought into a market where we already have
excess capacity. So the trend is towards 40 cents an hour
wages and top quality competing against the U.S..

"The single-greatest force for deflation is when you have
open trade between nations that have the ability to import
the most efficient manufacturing expertise into a low-wage-
base society, and so can produce products of the same
quality as the high-wage economy. The price pressure on the
product allows consumers to get more for their money and
they benefit. But it is disinflationary, if not
deflationary."

"As the 'boom' of President George W. Bush takes off," Asia
Times concludes, "puzzled American commentators are asking
where are all the extra jobs that the apparently positive
indicators should be creating. In fact, they are being
created abroad - mostly in China."

More on deflation... keep reading...

But first, here's Addison with more news:

Addison Wiggin, plumbing the depths of absurdity...

- For the first time in eight weeks, we open the Monday
session with a less ebullient stock market. The Dow slipped
32 points for the week to 10,568... calling into question,
if ever so slightly, the sustainability of the "bull"
coming out of Wall Street.

- The S&P 500, on the other hand, lost 2 points on Friday
but closed the week up - its ninth straight winning week.
The Nasdaq slumped 16 points itself, closing Friday at
2,123. For the stock market, this week marks the busiest in
the Q1 earnings report season for the calendar year 2004.
Most analysts expect earnings to come in strong across the
board. Still, strong or no, earnings will hardly justify a
stock price 29 times their number, on average... but such is
life for the skeptical observer of markets, life and
politics.

- "U.S. economic statistics have been heavily exaggerated,"
our friend Marc Faber told London's MoneyWeek magazine last
week. "In fact, the economy is pretty soft. Let's
distinguish between real and fictitious growth. In 2004,
everything rose except the dollar. This can't go on - not
every asset class can keep going up."

- Elsewhere, the dollar renewed its retrenchment last week,
falling once again to $1.25 against the euro. Gold edged
higher to $408 from $406. Oil continued to get more
expensive; March crude closed at $34.94 a barrel.

- Friday, as you may recall, we looked at absurdities in
the housing market, homebuilding stocks and a friendly
rivalry between two of our favorite analysts Steve
Sjuggerud and Daniel Denning. Today, word is leaking out of
the financial press about a new program the Bush
administration has proposed for the Federal Housing
Authority (FHA), which will make the housing market even
more absurd... and potentially more lethal.

- First the winning trade, thus far: "I know homebuilders
are officially stocks," writes Dr. Sjuggerud, "but
homebuilders are cheap and stocks in general are
expensive... also homebuilders are hated, while stocks are
loved... so I see more gains to come."

- The story, as Sjuggs sees it: Homebuilding stocks are
still super-cheap, selling at single-digit forward P/Es.
The supply of homes, he contends, is still way short of
demand and the big homebuilders will eat the "mom and pops"
for lunch. "But my favorite part of the story," writes
Steve, "is that 'the common people' hate these stocks.
Actually, everyone hates these stocks. For every three
shares of Beazer Homes that people have bought, there is
one that people have sold short - meaning they're betting
on the share price falling. This is comedy. The stock is at
a forward P/E of 6.5 - and growing like a weed. Forward
earnings for homebuilders have increased 29% per year on
average since 1995, and they're up 34% in the past 12
months. This is an extraordinary opportunity still."

- Last week, the Bush administration proposed that the FHA
allow zero-money-down financing for first-time homebuyers.
Zero money down for a house. The new provision would give
additional teeth to an already absurd mandate of the FHA:
approving applicants who have demonstrated they pose too
high a credit risk to get a loan through the conventional
mortgage market.

- Lenders, of course, love the idea. "Any down payment,"
Angelo Mozilo, CEO of Countrywide Financial Corp. told the
LA Times, "even 3% [the current requirement of the FHA] is
a major, unnecessary obstacle for lower-income
borrowers... " Right now, the FHA allows its applicants to
have monthly housing payments as high as 29% of their
monthly income, and total monthly debt as high as 41% of
their income. Countrywide has traditionally been one of the
highest-volume FHA lenders and is a participant in other
low-or-no-down-payment programs targeted at low-income
homebuyers backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

- "I hate to be on the opposite side of the trade [than
Sjuggerud]," Denning says. "But these low mortgage rates
have led directly to the 'financialization' of the American
economy. The retirement of millions of Americans now
depends on low-income homeowners to make their monthly
payments."

- Denning: "According the most recent data, corporate
private pension plans have $1.5 trillion in assets. Agency
securities - bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -
make up 11% of those assets held outright. Fannie and
Freddie bonds are the third-largest asset type held by
private pension funds. What is NOT disclosed is the dollar
value of 'agency assets' held by publicly traded
corporations - which make corporate bonds and equities
vulnerable to the direction of the mortgage market." Bottom
line: pension exposure to mortgage debt is huge... and
growing.

- Meanwhile, federal regulators, reports the Financial
Times this morning, are asking Freddie Mac to add
additional capital reserves to the company's
coffers... because it "remains exposed to 'substantial
management and operations risk.'"

- But that's only the half of it. "Since the Nasdaq bubble
burst," says Denning, "home equity and real estate have
skyrocketed as a percentage of total household net worth.
In 1999, real estate and housing values accounted for $11.5
trillion worth of household net worth, or about 27% of the
$42 trillion total. Stocks and mutual funds, at $12.1
trillion, made up 28% of household net worth. They were
about even.

- "The mortgage bubble has changed all that. By the third
quarter of 2003, real estate and housing values totaled
$15.8 trillion, or 38% of household net worth. Stocks,
still well down from their 2000 high, are only 19% of total
household net worth at $8 trillion.

- "This bubble," concludes Denning, "is even more dangerous
than the stock market. Housing and real estate are at the
epicenter of American household net worth."

- Should the zero-money down proposal get approved by
Congress, you can bet investors in homebuilding stocks will
continue to be rewarded. But the idea gives Dan Denning the
creeps.

Bill Bonner, still in Paris...

*** Hmmm... Gold dipped to $408. We're wondering if it will
sink down to our most recent buying target - $400. Or,
should we buy now? We don't know, dear reader. Will we get
the violent correct we've been expecting? Or will we never
see $400 gold again in our lifetimes? If we only knew...

*** "DEFLATION HAS ARRIVED."

We quote Bob Prechter from our own Daily Reckoning of last
Wednesday.

"Virtually everyone - and I do not use that word lightly -
believes that inflation will accelerate... The general
population is convinced that prices of their homes and
property can only go up...

"This consensus is not merely overwhelming, but reflects a
belief as vast and deeply held as a religion. Investment
News in September reported a survey by the National
Association for Business Economics in Washington. It
revealed, 'None of the respondents to the May survey, all
of whom were responsible for making macroeconomic
predictions, predicted a decline in the consumer price
index during the next two years.' USA Today confirmed the
fact, reporting, 'Not one economist [of 67 surveyed] said
it was "very likely" the economy would slip into
deflation.' That is a consensus!

"As this is written, not a single major newspaper, magazine
or TV network has done a story on the dramatic contraction
in M3. People are so drunk with inflationary certainty that they
can't even see that deflation is happening. And if
they do, they don't believe that it is meaningful...

"The money supply might rebound for a quarter or two as the
stock market and economy top out this year, but at the
largest degree of trend, the credit bubble - 70 years in
the making - has burst... "

*** And Richard Russell on the same topic:

"... The forces of world over-production and deflation are
at work. But so is the Fed. After a long string of losses
in the broad (M-3) money supply, two weeks ago M-3 surged
$30 billion, and the latest figure for the week ended
January 12 showed M-3 shooting up a monster $37 billion.
The Fed, it seems, has decided to go all-out, preparatory
to the November election. Greenspan has taken the lid off
the M-3 money supply, and the word, I assume, is 'Let 'er
rip!'

"As an aside, two weeks of this kind of money supply growth
would buy all the gold stocks in existence."

*** And here... a note from David Theroux of the Independent
Institute:

"Thank you for your great recent article, 'Lost In Space'!
The question to ask is: Has the 'Era of Really Big
Government' now arrived?

"Over the past three years, with inflation at record lows,
federal spending has increased by a massive 28.3% - with
non-defense discretionary growth of 30.5% - the largest
deficit in U.S. history and the highest rate of government
growth since LBJ.

"As predicted by Bob Higgs, senior fellow in Political
Economy at the Independent Institute, this explosion of
government power has only been possible in the aftermath of
9/11, as politicians take full advantage of a frightened
American public.

"During this time, President Bush has become the first
president since James Garfield (serving only in 1881) and
Millard Fillmore (1850-1853), neither serving full terms,
and then John Quincy Adams (serving a full term, 1825-1829)
not to have vetoed a SINGLE bill, with the result that we
now have record pork spending on agriculture, education,
Medicare, energy, transportation, foreign aid, etc.
Meanwhile, federal agencies have been given new powers to
secretly search any American's property and intercept
phone, Internet, and other communications, as well as
health, financial, and other records.

"During this period, there has been near silence from most
Washington think tanks and the media. According to former
Congressional Budget Office director Rudolph Penner, 'I
don't remember a time when there's been so little
commentary on it, and I can't really explain it.'"

*** A reader comment:

"This is my first effort to reply to any of your messages,
which I always read carefully and many of which I share
with friends. I even bought 'the Book,' read it and
recommended it to family and friends. What you have done
for me is to educate me as to the vulnerability of the old
'buy and hold' philosophy. I have come to the realization
that the current run-up is best viewed as a gift, helping
me to repair some of the damage of 2002-2003.

"However, this gift is likely to be a finite one followed
by another big opportunity for 'holders' to lose their
shirts. Thus, I have taken to carefully examining every one
of my holdings, and will be placing stops as a routine, and
will be selling those with no current or future promise. As
a retired physician, I am not interested in returning to
work to 'make it back one more time.' What I am saying is
that you guys have been a big help in causing me to become
more engaged in the oversight of my financial destiny. I
haven't bought any gold or opened any accounts investing in
foreign currency, but that isn't to say I won't. I still
have, over at the bank, some silver bars I purchased many
years ago at about 9 dollars. Who knows if they ever will
hit that level again. I live in Dallas, and know Scott
Burns, so I am always interested in the occasions when he
cites you, or you cite him. Finally, Ouzilly sounds like a
wonderful place. Someday I'd like to see it for myself... "

*** Yes, Ouzilly is a wonderful place... almost paradise in
some ways. But every paradise comes with its apple trees
and serpents. Your editor has become concerned that the
place might be fatal to him. Oddly, he has developed an
allergy to something. It is, after all, an ancient stone
building that is barely heated. Mold, mildew, dust... he
doesn't know what is it, but after a night in the house, he
can barely breathe.

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: The Mogambo Guru, aided by
the Economist magazine, puts the U.S. central bankers and
prime financial authorities to a little test... with dismal
results.

AN EXCELLENT CONTRARIAN INDICATOR
By the Mogambo Guru

Fed officials believe that the U.S. economy is gathering
strength, a Washington Post headline tells us. Keep this
thought in mind, because it brings up a very interesting
sidebar that appeared in the January 3, 2004 issue of the
Economist, entitled "A Bet Comes Due." It is priceless, and
follows another similar article, in the same magazine,
about the same guys, and which I noted in a prior Mogambo
Guru, and I would have to be crazy to do a search to tell
you which issue and the date and all, because I would have
to read through all of those back issues, and very soon I
would be more confused than I already am, and wondering
what in the hell I was talking about, and "What in the hell
did I mean by that?"

But the point was, for the past few years at least, the
Economist magazine has asked the attendees at the Jackson
Hole conference a few questions during their annual
symposium of what is supposed to be the smartest and
brightest and most powerful financial people and financial
institutions in the country, including the Fed, and is
actually sponsored each year by the Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City. In 2001, the Economist writers asked these
hotshots, "Is this a bubble?" and they all said - and you
will want to keep score, so go get a piece of paper and a
pencil - "no." Now, that period of time is now definitely
proved to have been a bubble, so the fact is plain: they
were wrong. Now to keep score, you write a "zero" for every
time these laughable idiots are wrong, and a "one" for
every time they are right. So far, they have scored a
single zero.

They were also wrong when they unanimously said in 2001
that they "ruled out an American recession," to which I
shout "Wrong-o again, you ignorant weasels!" which is an
audible signal for you to score another zero, and they also
got it wrong when "Last year they predicted that interest
rates would not fall to 1%." So that's another wrong
answer, as indicated by my jumping up on the table and
screaming, "Nice going, chumps! I got your economic savvy
right here, you pathetic morons!"

Now, on my score card I have recorded three zeroes, and a
little drawing that looks kind of like a bagel, but with
lightning bolts coming out of it, which does not mean
anything to me or to you, but is apparently highly
significant to the people assigned to my case.

The story goes on, as an Economist "update," and thus the
reason for the sidebar I mentioned in the first place. This
time, the Jackson Hole weenies were asked in 2003, "Will
the dollar fall to $1.25 against the euro at any time in
the next twelve months?" They all, except one, said "no."
They were wrong about that, too, so they score another big,
fat zero. So getting out the calculator and a pot of coffee
for some marathon calculating, I add zero plus zero plus
zero plus zero, hit the "equals" button, and I peer at the
readout in puzzlement, and this is just the preliminary
result and I am performing some statistical tests on the
data to verify the answer, which is roughly, ummm, zero.

Now since this is a binary system, we can convert these
data to indicate competence in economics, with "zero"
signifying zero competence and "one" signifying complete
competence. A few quick calculations later, we find that
the Fed, and the dimwits they hang around with, score the
lowest possible score, zero, indicating a complete lack of
competence.

So you can see why I have no respect for the Fed or any of
the dimwits that they hang around with. And now that I
think about it, when the Mogambo is elected President, my
first Executive Order will be to require that all the
officials at the Fed and all their - what did I call them?
- dimwit friends all have to wear a large conical hat with
the word "dunce" written on it all the time. In this way,
it will warn other people about their abysmal, arrogant
incompetence. Nah. Now that I think about it, I will just
fire them all, and use the resources to hound them to their
graves, which is a hell of a lot better than they deserve.

And, I am happy to note, the Economist magazine has the
same degree of disrespect for these pompous, arrogant
weenies as I do, as evidenced when they write: "In short,
they provide an excellent contrarian indicator."

With that background, you can appreciate the humor in a
headline that appeared in the Wall Street Journal on
Thursday, January 15th, which was: "Upbeat Fed Sees U.S.
Economy Improving and Inflation Tame." The aforementioned
excellent contrarian indicator, which the Economist
uncovered, says that you will make some big money if you
bet against the asinine opinions of the Fed, and wager that
the U.S. economy is deteriorating, and that inflation is
not, ummm, tame.

The Fed's most recent beige book came out and said that
wages are not rising, which wouldn't be so horrible if the
Fed had, in fact, "tamed" the Inflation Monster. But
separately, the Producer Price Index of the Labor
Department was also recently released and showed that, in
one year, Finished Goods are up 4% in price, Intermediate
Goods are up 3.9% in price, and Crude Goods are up 18.5% in
price.

To put a spin on it, the Fed decided to take the 4%
increase in the price of Finished Goods, ignore the hefty
inflation in Intermediate Goods, and ignore the roaring
inflation in Crude Goods, and back out food and energy out
of what is left, and that brought that index down to an
inflation reading of 1%. They think this is real clever.

Then the CPI came out, and it was up 0.2%. Food prices were
up 0.6% for the month, education costs rose 0.4 percent,
health care costs rose 0.6 percent and housing prices rose
0.3 percent. But, and this passes for good news, I suppose,
apparel prices fell 0.4 percent and transportation costs
fell 0.2 percent. These are MONTHLY increases in prices, so
to get the annual increase, multiply each number by twelve,
which I would do for you, but given my adroit handling of a
calculator it would take the rest of the afternoon for me
to do that, and I would get it wrong anyway. But I will get
you started, and will conscript a passing fourth-grade kid
to do the math, and tell you that multiplying 0.6% by
twelve equals a 7.2% annual inflation in food.

Of course, the lying weasels in the Fed and in the
government proper are all strutting around saying how
inflation is tame, quiescent, and non-existent. To which I
say, as you knew I would, "What a load of crap!" Three-
percent annual inflation in food and energy used to be
enough to cause heart attacks in bankers and bond holders,
and here we are looking at a trend that is more than TWICE
that!

If you have a heart problem, now would be the time to make
that doctor's appointment you've been putting off.

Regards,

The Mogambo Guru
for the Daily Reckoning

P.S. On a happier note, I am sure that you, like me, are
anxiously anticipating tomorrow, January 27, which is
Mozart's birthday, and you are now busy with the
preparations, what with all the buying and decorating the
Mozart tree, and hanging the Mozart lights along the eaves
of your house, and dying eggs for the big Mozart egg hunt
and all.

And this happy time of year, as an example of how it is
always feast or famine around here, also coincides with the
annual Girl Scout Cookie bonanza, and so the Mogambo will
soon be indulging in an orgy of sugary, chocolate treats
while listening to the magical, incredible Mozart on the
stereo. And I suggest that you do the same, because it just
doesn't get any better than that.

And the added benefit is that you get to forget about the
Fed's stupendous, incredible, ineffable idiocy while you're
happily munching and listening... for a day, anyway.

Schwerpunkt heute: US-Immobilienmarkt

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

Keine Absurdität wird ausgelassen ...

Letzte Woche schlug die Bush-Administration vor, Hauskäufern Kredite
mit 0 %-Tilgung zu geben. Gastautor Dan Denning liefert die Details
dazu in seinem Artikel - siehe unten.

Wenn ein Amerikaner in den USA vorwärts kommen will ... dann muss er
sich keinen Job suchen ... sondern ein Haus kaufen. Auch ohne
Eigenkapital. Er kann eine Hypothek in Höhe von 100 % des Kaufpreises
aufnehmen. Und wenn der Wert des Hauses steigt, kann er die Hypothek
erhöhen und hat zusätzliches Geld.

Oder noch besser - dann kann er sich ein zweites Haus kaufen!

Ein CNN-Bericht teilt uns mit, dass die Häuser in populären
potenziellen Ruhestandsgegenden - in der Nähe von Stränden, Bergen,
Seen - erheblich schneller im Preis gestiegen sind als andere Häuser.
Dieser Preisanstieg war so bemerkenswert, dass die Käufer von
Zweithäusern glauben, dass sie mit dem Kauf solcher Häuser ein
"Investment" tätigen.

Alles kann ein "Investment" sein. Aber nicht alle Investments sind
gute Investments. Ein Ferienhaus ist normalerweise ein guter Weg, um
Geld los zu werden, aber ein schrecklicher Weg, um Geld zu
investieren. Der glückliche Ferienhausbesitzer muss Steuern,
Instandhaltung und Versicherung bezahlen (von den monatlichen
Hypothekenzahlungen ganz zu schweigen) ... nur um sein "Investment" im
Wert zu erhalten.

Aber Zweithäuser in attraktiven Gegenden - wie Cape May in New Jersey
oder Naples in Florida - sind laut CNN im letzten Jahr um 38 % teurer
geworden. Also, vorwärts ... man kann den Strand genießen und dabei
reich werden!

Da sie keine Risiken sehen, werden die Investoren immer
leichtsinniger. Nichts fällt jemals, außer Zinsen ... und die fallen
nur. So denken sie.

Solange nur die Zinsen fallen, scheint alles andere zu steigen. "Wir
sind in einer Periode, die anders als alles seit den 1930ern ist, als
die Welt mit deflationären Kräften konfrontiert wurde", so der
Fondsmanager Arnold Schmeidler gegenüber der Asia Times. Zurückgehende
Inflationsraten ermöglichen auch fallende Zinssätze. Die Leute leihen
sich mehr Geld ... und treiben die Preise für Finanzanlagen und
Immobilien hoch.

Die, die Finanzanlagen haben, werden reicher - eine Zeitlang. Die, die
keine haben, werden ärmer; die Löhne, die zumindest am unteren Rand
der Skala notieren, haben sich in den letzten 30 Jahren in den USA
real überhaupt nicht bewegt. Die Mittelklasse löst sich in Luft auf.
"Die amerikanischen Automobilgesellschaften verkaufen ihre Produktion
zu 0 %-Finanzierungen, weil sie Überkapazitäten haben", so erklärt der
Fondsmanager Schmeidler weiter. "Aber China baut Autofabriken, um
Hunderttausende Autos herzustellen, weshalb es bald weitere
Überkapazitäten geben wird, in einem Markt, der schon Überkapazitäten
hat. Also geht der Trend dahin, dass Stundenlöhne von 40 Cents und
Topp-Qualität mit den USA konkurrieren werden ..."

"Die größte Kraft entwickelt die Deflation dann, wenn man Freihandel
zwischen Nationen hat, die die Fähigkeit haben, das effizienteste Know
How in eine Niedriglohngesellschaft zu exportieren, so dass diese
(Niedriglohngesellschaft) die Produkte mit der gleichen Qualität wie
das Hochlohnland produzieren kann. Der Preisdruck auf die Produkte
ermöglicht es den Konsumenten dann, mehr für ihr Geld zu erhalten -
sie profitieren also davon. Aber das ist disinflationär, wenn nicht
deflationär."

"Während der 'Boom' von George W. Bush abhebt", so die Asia Times,
"fragen sich verwirrte amerikanische Kommentatoren, wo all die
zusätzlichen Jobs sind, die die offensichtlich brummende amerikanische
Wirtschaft doch hätte schaffen sollen. Nun, diese Jobs sind im Ausland
geschaffen worden - größtenteils in China."

Jetzt aber zu Addison mit mehr News:

US-Immobilienaktien mit einstelligem KGV

von unserem Korrespondenten Addison Wiggin

Für die Wall Street hat diese Woche die Hochsaison für die
Quartalsberichte begonnen. Und die meisten Analysten rechnen damit,
dass die Berichte quer durch die Bank sehr stark reinkommen werden.
Aber starke Quartalsberichte oder nicht - die werden kaum ein KGV von
durchschnittlich 29 rechtfertigen können ... aber so ist das Leben für
die skeptischen Beobachter von Märkten, Leben und Politik.

"Die US-Wirtschaftsstatistiken sind deutlich übertrieben", so schrieb
mein Freund Marc Faber letzte Woche im Londoner Magazin "MoneyWeek".
"Man sollte zwischen realem und fiktivem Wachstum unterscheiden. 2004
stieg bis auf den Dollar alles. Das kann so nicht weitergehen - nicht
jede Anlageklasse kann weiterhin steigen." Letzten Freitag betrachtete
ich die Absurditäten am US-Immobilienmarkt. Heute habe ich in der
Finanzpresse von einem neuen Programm der Bush-Administration gelesen.
Das würde den US-Immobilienmarkt noch absurder ... und potenziell
tödlicher machen.

Erst die gute Nachricht: "Die Immobilien-Aktien sind günstig, während
Aktien allgemein teuer sind", schreibt Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, "und
Immobilien-Aktien sind verhasst, während Aktien allgemein geliebt
werden ... also sehe ich Raum für Gewinne bei den Immobilien-Aktien."

Die Story lautet laut Dr. Sjuggerud so: Die Immobilien-Aktien sind
immer noch super-billig, teilweise haben sie einstellige KGVs. Und das
Angebot an Häusern ist immer noch knapp. "Aber mein Lieblingsteil bei
dieser Geschichte ist, dass die 'kleinen Leute' diese Aktien hassen.
Derzeit hasst fast jeder diese Aktien. So kommt auf je drei gekaufte
Aktien von Beazer Homes eine leer verkaufte Aktie (mit "Leerverkäufen"
kann man in den USA auf fallende Kurse setzen kann, ein bisschen
vergleichbar mit einer Put-Option). Das ist eine Komödie. Diese Aktie
hat ein KGV 2004 von 6,5 - und sie kann Wachstum vorweisen. Seit 1995
sind die Gewinne der Bauunternehmen um durchschnittlich 29 % pro Jahr
gestiegen, und um 34 % in den letzten 12 Monaten. Das ist immer noch
eine außergewöhnliche Anlagechance."

Goldpreis Richtung 400 ... und Allergien in alten Häusern

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner in… Anmelden oder registrieren

Spekulationsblase am US-Immobilienmarkt gefährlich!

von Dan Denning

Letzte Woche schlug die… Anmelden oder registrieren