Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Pass auf das es nicht vorher ausbricht
Dann heisst es Haxen in die Hand nehmen und teurer kaufen als jetzt.
Ja-Ja das timing und die Geduld , good luck Silverstation.
Juni ist ein guter Monat, egal ob nun am ende des Monats, hauptsache der Schnitt passt.
Ich denke am Freitag ist das alles gegessen und dann gehts sideway weiter zwischen 650 - und der evil triple six.

Dau, auch ein Indikator auf den ich manchmal hinschau, Candlesticks
Geht auch fuer Aktien, mach nur den ticker rein.

http://www.americanbulls.com/S…LD&MarketTicker=TSE&Typ=I

Das Sentiment auf dem PM Markt ist :

Complete indecision between the bulls and the bears.

germoney

...richtig, man weiss nichts, man kann nur vermuten und aus dem Bachgefuehl handeln, bzw. erstmal nichts machen als zuschauen.
Wie jedes Gewitter geht auch das vorbei.

Gruss

XEX

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US 'preparing for the worst

'2007-6-14 07:01

Washington

China's secretive transformation of its military power leaves the United States preparing for the worst eventualities, including over Taiwan, a Pentagon official said on Wednesday.

About 900 Chinese missiles are in place opposite Taiwan, while China is also rolling out far more sophisticated long-range nuclear missiles, combat planes, warships and submarines, the Department of Defence official said.

Richard Lawless, the Pentagon's deputy undersecretary for Asia-Pacific affairs, said the US government urgently wanted to launch a strategic dialogue to discuss China's military intentions, especially over nuclear arms.

"I think if we had a true dialogue of depth... we might be able to constrain and put some of those issues of (Chinese) intent to bed," he told a hearing of the House of Representatives armed services committee.

"Not being able to, we must plan and prepare for the worst," he said. "It is an area of intense concern and we're giving it due attention from the highest levels of the Department of Defence and the inter-agency discussion."

The United States and China have long been at loggerheads over Beijing's military build-up, although US Defence Secretary Robert Gates expressed optimism about future relations at a Singapore security conference this month.

Dialogue to avoid future miscalculations

Gates called for a more detailed military dialogue with China to avoid future miscalculations, while a top Chinese general said Beijing was prepared to open a "hotline" with Washington.

Lawless alleged "a deliberate effort on the part of China's leaders to mask the nature of Chinese military capabilities", which he said could only ring precautionary alarm bells for the US and other governments.

China's successful test of an anti-satellite weapon in January could "disrupt, delay and frustrate our ability to operate" in space, he also said.

And its growing sophistication in "cyber-warfare" has given China the capacity "to attack and degrade our computer systems", he cautioned.

Lawless was briefing US lawmakers on an annual Pentagon report issued last month that questioned China's lack of transparency in its defence budgeting and suggested that it could be "planning for pre-emptive military options in advance of regional crises".

Although Beijing announced an official defence budget figure of $45bn for 2007, the US Defence Intelligence Agency estimates China's total military-related spending for this year could be up to $125bn.

The lack of transparency in China's military activities "will naturally and understandably prompt international responses that hedge against the unknown", the report said.

The expensive upgrading of Chinese offensive systems "is tilting the military balance in the mainland's favour" against Taiwan, but also risks upsetting the regional balance of power in Asia and beyond, Lawless said.

AFP

>by Duncan Cameron

June 6, 2007

The U.S. is losing two wars: Iraq and Afghanistan. No American presidential candidate has a credible plan for bringing a political settlement forward in Iraq, and the U.S. president has lost the domestic support of two-thirds of the population over his conduct of the Iraq war. NATO is helping the U.S. out in Afghanistan, but the war goes poorly, and it has little or no popular support in European nations.

The U.S. dollar is sinking. About one trillion U.S. dollars a year are flowing out into the world, as the U.S. buys about one trillion dollars more abroad that it sells to others. As U.S. dollar spending abroad goes up faster than the demand for these dollars, its price — the dollar foreign exchange rate — falls.

Most Canadians have noticed that the Canadian dollar will now buy you about 94 U.S. cents, while five years ago our money would only fetch 62 U.S. cents. But, our money did not so much go up, as the U.S. dollar went down.

The Canadian media do not tell us is what happens to our money against other world currencies: the British pound, Japanese yen, and the euro. In fact, Canada is probably the only industrialized country in the world where it is standard practice to ignore the value of our money against world currencies, and measure it only against the U.S. dollar. So Canadians get a distorted view of the world.

Compared to the euro, for instance, the Canadian dollar has fallen in value by a few cents, in the same five year period when it went up sharply against the U.S. dollar. Emotion matters in currency markets. As the U.S. dollar falls, people get scared it will fall some more, so they sell. Speculators smell U.S. dollar weakness, and sell dollars today, so as to buy them back later, for less, and pocket the difference as profit. Large scale selling will force down the price of anything. Speculators expect to win because the U.S. continues to spend abroad to buy assets, and fight wars.

Currencies are subject to confidence, and the world is losing confidence in President Bush; the U.S. dollar falls because of his perceived weakness, as well as because of the one trillion dollar deficit abroad.

Bush has defended American hyper-consumption of energy by waging war in the Middle East. His successor will have to plan how to reduce American energy use, deal with an emerging environmental consciousness, and figure out how to find a diplomatic settlement to the Iraq war. No wonder “Re-elect Al Gore” bumper stickers are selling well.

The weak dollar takes the initiative in world affairs away from the American president. To shore up its currency the U.S. needs support of the other world currency countries. While it bullies Japan, and dominates the U.K., the euro countries are capable of acting independently of the U.S.

At every G8 summit, the host is responsible for suggesting a priority agenda item. German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants this three-day meeting in the Baltic resort of Heiligendamm to be the climate change summit, and has called for specific targets to be accepted for greenhouse gas reductions.

Bush wants to derail international agreement on a green agenda this week, so he has announced his own climate change plan. Since this requires another timetable, effectively he has decided to pre-empt any concerted action at the Baltic summit. Instead of working with the host country, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced a Canadian plan, doing his small part to help Bush divide the summit.

Both Bush and Harper need the G8. Without a plan to stabilize the dollar against the euro, interest rates will have to go up in the U.S. to make holding dollars more attractive. Holding up the U.S. dollar through interest hikes will provoke a recession in the U.S., and hurt Canada.

Bankers and financiers are used to a world led by the U.S. Dollar weakness signals both that the euro is a much stronger currency and that the U.S. is no longer in a position to lead on the issues that matter to the world.

The Bush dollar represents reduced status for the U.S., and neither Bush nor Stephen Harper seem to recognize what this means: the age of unilateral American leadership in world affairs is about to end, poorly.

Duncan Cameron is associate publisher of rabble.ca. He writes from Vancouver.

http://www.rabble.ca/politics.shtml?x=59860

GO GATA!!!

Gold bulls are constantly fighting a headwind (Gold Cartel), while US stock market bulls have the good fortune of having a tailwind at their service (PPT). Today was a perfect example. The US stock market was under severe pressure yesterday, but instead of normal follow through early selling, the DOW was called 50 higher, while gold was called $4 lower … this with inflation fears the latest market concern.

It was a pretty wild day with gold rallying to go up nearly $3 on the day, only to give it all back and go down around $2 going into the closing period of trading. Then, it reversed course as local shorts were forced to cover.

The gold open interest rose again, up another 2673 contracts to 412,150. Instead of fund liquidation, we are seeing spec buying. So much for the pundits who continue to claim the price of gold is going down because specs are afraid of rising interest rates, US inflation, and China nonsense.

What does this gold OI build mean? If it is spreading, not much. If it is the SMART MONEY crowd that knows what is coming in the months ahead for the price of gold and why, it is a BIG DEAL. Regardless of what is going on, the normal trading pattern re the open interest has changed dramatically vis-à-vis years past.

There was a fair amount of discussion on that dramatic one day liquidation of open interest before June First Notice Day as to how much was the taking off of calendar spreading. Hard to know. However, the day BEFORE that massive reduction, the open interest went up nearly 10,000 contracts. That was not spreading.

The bottom line is that something extraordinary is taking place regarding gold and the Comex. In time we ought to find out what it is.

Well, what do you know … silver did fill the gap left above $12.80, basis July, and then turned right around. Spot silver dropped to $12.83 this morning before heading back north, rising to $13.16, and then falling again as gold was nailed.

June 13, 2007

On June 7 the national debt of the US was $8.85 trillion. The annual interest on this debt is $406 billion or over one billion dollars each and every day of the year. The debt is increasing at the rate of $1.38 billion a day. Thus, we see the magic of compounding, but unfortunately what we're seeing is compounding in reverse.

With the above in mind, you have to ask yourself, "How in the world is the US going to finance its rising and compounding debt?" And the answer rings loud and clear -- it will be financed through inflation.

I've said it for years, and I'll say it again -- it's a case of "inflate or die," and the US has no intention of dying. So we'll inflate, it's simply a matter of how rapidly we inflate and how successful the government and the Fed are in keeping the American people in the dark about what's happening to their money....

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell061407.html

Saccard

Auch hier wird Russel recht haben.

Furthermore, the major developing nations, and I'm talking about Russia and China, want to be on an economic and political par with the US. To do this, Russia wants a convertible ruble, and China will want a convertible renminbi. As for the euro which is already convertible, it was created in Europe to compete with the dollar.

So far, most of the commerce of the world is done in dollars. But I don't know how long that's going to continue. In due time (when it suits them) Russia will make the ruble convertible and China will make the renminbi convertible -- but as I said, they will do it when they're ready and in their own good time.

I've held all along that the next war will not be a military war. It will not be a matter of the major powers fighting each other. The coming war for power and world leadership will be an economic war.

It will be fought with competitive currencies and the movement of gold and the potential threat of nuclear bombs.

As for the bombs, they will only be a threat. World leaders know that no nation today can win a nuclear war. Nuclear bombs are for defense. If you have nuclear capabilities, you own the ultimate instrument of retaliation. Nuclear is the ultimate threat and therefore the ultimate defense. In classic Zen terms, it's "winning without fighting."

Hier schreibt Astrologe Herr Schaefer folgendes fuer den ganzen Monat Juni:

Es gibt Zeiten, in denen hält man sich besser zurück, beschränkt seine Aktivität auf ein Minimum, geht besser keine Risiken ein und spekuliert auch besser nicht an der Börse, denn es könnten leicht Verluste entstehen. Manchmal kommen die Dinge sehr konzentriert. Hätte ich all diese Warnungen nicht gesehen, hätte ich vielleicht noch Geld an der Börse verloren oder andere leichtsinnige Geschäfte getätigt, so hielt sich der Schaden noch in Grenzen.

Ab jetzt muss ich mich sowieso zurueckhalten.

@GB... das weiss ich nicht.

Das letzte was Merriman sagte war:

Bis Ende Juni keine gute Zeit fuer PM.
Im Juli ein paar Ruecksetzer am 9 .und 10. Juli und 31. Juli.
Ansonsten ein guter Monat fuer PM bis Ende August wobei wieder ein Ruecksetzer am 9.August sein soll.
Der Monat Juni ist ein harter Monat fuer alle Edelmetallfreunde.
Ansonsten vom 2. Juli bis ende Oktober eine bessere Zeit mit POG von 730$ >
Die zwei Wochen muessen wir noch aushalten, eher kaufen und bloss nicht kapitulieren.

Gruss

Eldo