Rohstoffnews

26.01.2005 13:14:29 Gold picks up in Europe, currency pressure looms

LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Wednesday after a currency-led drop the previous day, but the market may face fresh pressure from dollar moves, dealers said.

Spot gold was at $423.50/424.30 by 1158 GMT, compared with $422.05/422.80 quoted in New York late on Tuesday.

"The market held above $421 very well yesterday. I think we're looking broadly at a $421-428 range, but if we go under $420 we could see $417," one dealer said.

Support was located just above this year's low at $416.15, with resistance seen at $430.

Dealers said the market was skittish, with no clear direction seen ahead of key events including elections in Iraq this weekend, U.S. President George W. Bush's speech to the nation and the Group of Seven gathering next month.

Market participants will be looking at such events mainly for their impact on the dollar, although violence in Iraq would heighten gold's safe-haven appeal.

OTC January options are due to expire on Wednesday, with dealers pointing to strike prices around $420.

The dollar edged back against the euro after gaining broadly in the previous session on stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence figures.

A stronger U.S. currency weakens non-U.S. investors' buying power for dollar-priced gold, but currency watchers were looking ahead to early February's G7 meeting amid speculation about a revaluation of the Chinese yuan.

European policy makers recently urged Asian countries, especially China, to let their currencies rise to share the burden of the dollar's three-year decline.

Analysts were still broadly believers in a higher gold price in the longer term as they expected the dollar's decline to resume.

"We continue to expect the dollar to move lower, and gold higher, although identifying the trigger for such a move remains as elusive as ever," HSBC analyst Alan Williamson said in a report.

Williamson noted the latest statistics of the gold holdings on the streetTRACKS gold exchange-traded fund showed a sharp increase in bullion holdings over recent weeks.

Gold held in trust at the close of trading on Tuesday totalled 152 tonnes, up 54.1 tonnes from the start of the year.

In other metals, silver was steadier after prices lost more than two percent on Tuesday due to drops in gold.

Spot silver was last at $6.70/6.73 versus New York's previous $6.66/6.68.

Platinum was flat at $861.00/866.00, while palladium was down marginally at $187.00/192.00 from $188.00/193.00.

26 Jan 2005 17:03

26.01.2005 16:36:33 NY gold rises early as dollar falls

NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures climbed Wednesday morning as a weaker dollar against rival currencies sparked buying in the precious metals, dealers said.

At 10:10 a.m. EST (1510 GMT), gold for February delivery was up $3.90 at $426 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, trading from $421.40 to $426.80.

"In the absence of any particular fundamental change right now, people are very much trading off the currencies, with short-term technical parameters being guidelines and currencies being the main driver," said a New York gold desk trader.

But declining COMEX gold open interest recently, indicating reduced speculative participation, and a smaller fund net long position, should eventually pave the way for long accumulation in gold, market sources said.

Gold futures have been stuck in a trading range from about $400 to $459 over the last five months, and analysts see the action staying choppy in the near term as traders analyze currency moves and U.S. economic data, as well as geopolitical developments.

Analysts said the Iraq presidential elections this weekend, followed by U.S. president George W. Bush's State of the Union address and the Group of Seven meeting in February should keep traders on their toes.

In currency news, some investors expect Asian money to appreciate against the dollar, given recent comments from a Chinese official on the policy of its currency. China is likely to discuss the revaluation of its yuan at the G7 meeting next week, the official said.

A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals more attractive to non-U.S. investors.

By midmorning, the dollar fell 1 percent to 103.02 yen , while the euro traded above $1.30 to sit at $1.3050, which is well below its all-time high against the dollar at $1.3667 on Dec. 30.

Chartists peg support in COMEX gold at $420, propped up by steady physical demand due to Asian Lunar New Year, with resistance at $430.

Spot gold changed hands at $425.70/6.50, above Tuesday's late quote at $422.05/2.80. The London afternoon fix was $425.80.

Over-the-counter January options expire Wednesday and dealers said they zeroed in on strike prices around $420.

March silver gained 14 cents to $6.825 an ounce, dealing within a $6.695 to $6.85 band.

Prices of late have struggled up from the bottom of a $6.11 to $8.23 trading range.

Spot silver traded up to $6.78/81 from yesterday's late quote of $6.66/68. The fix was $6.72.

NYMEX April platinum rose $3.10 to $867 an ounce. Spot platinum fetched $864/868.

March palladium dipped $1.55 to $191 an ounce. Spot was at $187/191.

26 Jan 2005 17:11

26.01.2005 17:09:10 UPDATE 1-Gold rises $4 in Europe, chases euro/dollar

(Updates to afternoon)

LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices ran higher on Wednesday afternoon as a rising euro made the metal a cheaper buy for non-U.S. investors.

Spot gold was at $426.90/427.70 by 1545 GMT, compared with $422.05/422.80 quoted in New York late on Tuesday.

The euro picked up after a strong survey on German business sentiment. It was last at $1.3070.

"Strong German business confidence data today has kept the currencies and in turn precious metals in an active mood," James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said in a daily report.

Dealers said the market remained skittish within a broad $421-428 range, with no clear direction seen ahead of key events including elections in Iraq this weekend, U.S. President George W. Bush's speech to the nation and the Group of Seven rich nations gathering next month.

Market participants will be looking at such events mainly for their impact on the dollar, although violence in Iraq would heighten gold's safe-haven appeal.

Currency watchers' main focus is early February's G7 meeting amid speculation about a revaluation of the Chinese yuan -- ignited by China on Wednesday.

European policy makers recently urged Asian countries, especially China, to let their currencies rise to share the burden of the dollar's three-year decline.

Analysts were still broadly believers in a higher gold price in the longer term as they expected the dollar to continue its decline.

ELUSIVE TRIGGER
"We continue to expect the dollar to move lower, and gold higher, although identifying the trigger for such a move remains as elusive as ever," HSBC analyst Alan Williamson said in a report.

Williamson noted the latest statistics of the gold holdings on the streetTRACKS gold exchange-traded fund showed a sharp increase in bullion holdings over recent weeks.

Gold held in trust at the close of trading on Tuesday totalled 152 tonnes, up 54.1 tonnes from the start of the year.

In other metals, silver was steadier after prices lost more than two percent on Tuesday due to drops in gold.

Spot silver was last at $6.78.6.80 versus New York's previous $6.66/6.68.

Platinum firmed to $865.00/870.00 from $861.00/866.00, while palladium was down marginally at $187.00/192.00 from $188.00/193.00.

26 Jan 2005 19:05

26.01.2005 18:29:21 Nachgebender Dollar treibt Goldpreis hoch

London/Zürich, 26. Jan (Reuters) - Gold hat am Mittwoch dank des nachgebenden Dollars zugelegt. Zum Handelsschluss in Europa notierte die Feinunze bei 426,90/427,70 Dollar nach 422,85/423,60 Dollar am Vorabend.

Ein schwacher Dollar macht das in der US-Währung gehandelte Edelmetall für Anleger aus anderen Währungsräumen attraktiver. Der Dollar litt unter den Ängsten vor einer Eskalation der Lage im Irak nach dem Absturz eines US-Militärhubschraubers und zusätzlich auch unter dem für Januar überraschend gestiegenen deutschen Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex.

Edelmetall-Analysten erwarten, dass sich Gold in der Spanne 421 bis 428 Dollar weiterhin volatil zeigt. Schlüsselereignisse wie die Wahlen im Irak oder das nächsten Monat anstehende Treffen der G-7 Staaten könnten zu nicht kalkulierbaren Ausschlägen führen, hiess es. Längerfristig sollte der Goldkurs angesichts des weiter unter Druck stehenden Dollars aber zulegen können.

Das zweite Goldfixing in London erfolgte bei 425,80 Dollar nach 423,70 Dollar am Vormittag und 424,50 Dollar am Dienstagnachmittag.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.133/16.383 (Vorabend 16.134/16.384) sfr an.

par/pma

26 Jan 2005 19:09

26.01.2005 17:31:26 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> POLL-Coffee to be volatile in 2005 on supply fears [nL26447514]

LONDON - Coffee prices will be volatile in 2005 with huge increases possible if bad weather worsens an expected production deficit, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

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> UPDATE 1-LIFFE sugar hits 3-1/2 mth high [nL26412014]

LONDON - LIFFE benchmark March white sugar futures hit a 3-1/2-month high at $263.0 a tonne, up 1.19 percent, on Wednesday afternoon due to arbitrage with a strong New York, traders said.

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> LIFFE cocoa nears 6-week high on speculator buying [nL2619577]

LONDON - London cocoa shot up in late trade on Wednesday to the highest level in almost six weeks as speculator interest in New York buoyed LIFFE futures, traders said.

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GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK
> CBOT March soy turns up on cash, wheat/corn firm [nN26610266]

CHICAGO - Chicago Board of Trade grain and soy complex at 9:50 a.m. CST (1550 GMT) on Wednesday.

WHEAT - Higher. March up 2-1/4 at $2.99-1/4 per bushel. Deferreds steady to up 3-3/4 cents.

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> US cattle numbers seen up for first time in 9 yrs [nN26449777]

CHICAGO, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. cattle herd may show its first year-over-year increase in nine years as profitable cattle prices, reduced kill rates, and improved grazing encouraged producers to rebuild herds, analysts said.

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> S.Korea's KFA buys 55,000 tonnes soymeal-traders [nSEO306353]

SEOUL - The Korea Feed Association (KFA) bought 55,000 tonnes of South American soymeal for feed production from Cargill at $233.33 per tonne on a cost-and-freight basis, traders said on Wednesday.

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> World eyes bumper oilseed crops in 2005/06 -HGCA [nL26138401]

PETERBOROUGH, England - Word oilseed output looks set to jump to record levels in 2005/06 after a sharp rise in plantings this season, but crop development in key grower South America holds the key for prices, a senior market analyst said on Wednesday.

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> Cargill says Britain struggling on biofuels [nCUL647190]

PETERBOROUGH, England - Britain is unlikely to meet its biofuel production target this year, but investment in this embryonic sector continues to grow, a senior official of U.S. agri-business giant Cargill said on Wednesday.

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METALS > UPDATE 1-Gold rises $4 in Europe, chases euro [nL2616917]

LONDON - Gold prices ran higher on Wednesday afternoon as a rising euro made the metal a cheaper buy for non-U.S. investors.

Spot gold was at $426.90/427.70 by 1545 GMT, compared with $422.05/422.80 quoted in New York late on Tuesday.

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> INTERVIEW-Platinum eyes China bridal market [nT282695]

TOKYO - China's slumping platinum jewellery sector is poised for a rebound and affluent young couples with one eye on the altar will be the key, the head of the industry's marketing arm said on Wednesday. James Courage, chief executive of London-based Platinum Guild International, said the Chinese platinum jewellery market has grown, much as it did in Japan, because women have started buying items for themselves.

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> China alumina prices rise 2 pct on tight supply [nHKG304125]

HONG KONG - Spot alumina prices in China have risen more than two percent in the past two weeks due to tight availability and seasonal demand, traders said on Wednesday.

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> Miner Antofagasta says yr copper output up 5.6 pct [nWLB0106]

LONDON - Total copper production at Chile's Antofagasta Plc (/ANTO.L) hit 132,200 tonnes in its fourth quarter the London-listed copper miner said on Wednesday.

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> M'bishi Materials plans May maintenance at Naoshim [nL2684441]

LONDON - Mitsubishi Materials Corp. (5711.DE), Japan's third-largest refined copper producer, said on Wednesday it plans to shut its Naoshima smelter for 27 days from mid-May for maintenance.

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> Russian copper scrap premiums go as supply rises [nL26109791]

LONDON - Russian copper scrap price premiums have disappeared in 2005 after hitting a record high of $200 per tonne last year, because of increased availability, traders said on Wednesday.

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SOFT COMMODITIES > Nigerian cocoa stocks at historical highs -dealers [nL26256388]

LAGOS - Cocoa bean stocks at Lagos warehouses are at historical highs after unusually heavy arrivals in January, and this year's harvest may match last year's big crop of 190,000 tonnes, dealers said on Wednesday.

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> Brazil 04/05 cocoa arrivals fall 10 pct by Jan 23 [nLAHO15201]

SAO PAULO, Brazil - Brazilian 2004/05 (May/April) cocoa arrivals from Bahia and other states totaled 2.68 million 60-kg bags by Jan. 23, down 10 percent from 3.01 million bags a year ago, the Bahia Commercial Association said Wednesday.

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> UPDATE 2-Kenya tea production hits record high [nL2670538]

NAIROBI - Kenya's tea production hit a record high of 324.6 million kgs in 2004, growing by 10.5 percent from 293.7 million kgs the previous year, the Tea Board of Kenya (TBK) said on Wednesday.

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> Physical sugar-Firmer Indian, Pakistani demand [nEUSUG2]

LONDON - Brisk Indian and Pakistani enquiries for raw sugar underpinned physical trade this week, but traders ruled out Indian buying of whites for the time being.

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26 Jan 2005 21:35

26.01.2005 21:28:18 UPDATE 1-Canada worried by China buying its resources

(Adds quotes, details)

By David Ljunggren

FREDERICTON, New Brunswick, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Canada is concerned by the prospect of China buying up its natural resources firms and is reviewing tougher investment safeguards, Industry Minister David Emerson said on Wednesday.

Critics say that Ottawa should take steps to ensure that control over a large chunk of Canada's natural resources does not pass over to a China hungry for foreign commodities.

"I have heard general concerns expressed -- and I think I share some of those concerns -- that when you have state-owned enterprises such as enterprises owned or controlled by the government of China, that they may not be entirely market motivated," Emerson told reporters.

"That gives rise to issues that would be of some potential concern to us. That's not to say that we would not welcome Chinese investment in Canada or Canadian resource industries. It's simply to recognize that we would need some undertakings," he added.

China Minmetals Corp., the state-controlled metals trading giant, is in talks with Toronto-based Noranda Inc. (/NRD.TO) about a possible takeover of the base metals producer.

Sinopec (/0386.HK) (/SNP.N) and PetroChina (/0857.HK) (/PTR.N) are keen for a deal with pipeline operator Enbridge Inc. (/ENB.TO), which is seeking Chinese buyers for crude oil to be shipped via a planned line to the Pacific coast.

"When you expose yourself to potentially substantial parts of a given sector being taken over by a foreign government, then you have to start asking questions about at what point does that kind of dominant control of a particular sector become a matter of national interest," Emerson said.

Last week in Beijing, Prime Minister Paul Martin signed agreements aimed at boosting co-operation between the countries in oil and mineral exploration.

But Martin is under pressure from the left-leaning New Democrats -- the party keeping his minority government afloat -- to ensure Canadian sovereignty is not harmed.

Emerson said he was looking at how to strengthen the Investment Canada Act to protect Canadian interests when foreign entities bought domestic firms.

"We would probably want to ensure that these companies were open and transparent and, ideally, continue to be publicly traded," said Emerson, adding that if the act were changed it would be within the next year.

"We have to ensure that -- particularly in the case of non-renewable resources -- we're not just willy nilly unloading our natural resources without ensuring full benefits to Canada as a result."

Ottawa was also reviewing whether to amend the act to give Parliament more control over the merger process. The government currently has to approve any merger worth more than around C$250 million ($200 million).

"There is some question in my mind as to whether we might not want to have the option of review on smaller transactions that may be of a very strategic nature," said Emerson.

($1=$1.23 Canadian)

27 Jan 2005 09:02

27.01.2005 08:51:14 TOCOM gold up on NY and bullion, hits 3-week high

TOKYO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures bounced back on Thursday to touch a three-week high as a firm New York close prompted some short-covering, while steady bullion prices also provided support.

The benchmark December gold contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange finished up 17 yen per gram at 1,427 yen after wavering between 1,416 and 1,429 yen -- a level last seen on Jan. 7.

Other months rose by 14-19 yen.

"Spot gold was trading at around a firm $427.5, which encouraged players to buy back gold, and buying accelerated after TOCOM gold topped (the key) 1,425-yen level," a Tokyo analyst said.

TOCOM gold is now up about 3 percent from this year's low of 1,385 yen reported on Monday last week.

The analyst said TOCOM gold appeared to have tested its lowest level for the time being.

Bullion held on to New York gains in Asia as dealers said escalating violence in Iraq ahead of Sunday's poll could boost the metal's safe-haven appeal.

Several guerrilla groups have declared war on the election and vowed to attack polling stations and kill voters.

Spot gold was fetching $427.85/8.35 an ounce at TOCOM's closing bell, compared with $426.50/7.00 last quoted in New York.

Traders are looking ahead to global political events such as the Iraqi election, U.S. President George W. Bush's State of the Union address next Wednesday and the Feb. 4 Group of Seven finance ministers' meeting in London.

In the currency market, the yen softened a touch against the dollar, erasing some of the gains chalked up the previous day on speculation that China may soon change its currency policy.

The dollar was fetching 103.24/3.29 yen at 0630 GMT, against 103.05 yen in late New York trade.

However, the dollar was still about a yen below the two-week high of 104.35 hit on Tuesday.

The benchmark December platinum futures contract closed up 2 yen at 2,794 yen per gram.

Spot platinum was at $866/871, up slightly from New York levels of $865/870 an ounce.

December TOCOM silver was at 225.2 yen per 10 grams, up 1.9 yen.

Spot silver was at $6.77/6.79, flat from New York.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams: For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,427 (up 17) 59,895
SILVER 225.2 (up 1.9) 1,695
PLATINUM 2,794 (up 2) 29,243
PALLADIUM 634 (down 4) 374

27 Jan 2005 14:29

27.01.2005 13:21:43 Silver fixed up in Europe, gold matches dollar

* Silver fixed higher on Thursday at 678.50 cents per ounce compared with previous fix at 672.00 cents. Spot market indicated at $6.76/6.79 by 1212 GMT from New York's $6.77/6.80 on Wednesday.

* Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 2.265, 2.255, 2.302 and 2.182 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively.

* Gold quoted at $426.00/426.80 a troy ounce, against New York's late trade on Wednesday of $426.50/427.00. Currency the key influence ahead of next week's G7 meeting. Price settles back from earlier highs near 100-day moving average level around $428.00 as dollar steadies.

* Platinum at $867.00/870.00, little different from late New York levels at $865.00/870.00.

* Palladium at $188.00/191.00 from $187.00/191.00.

27 Jan 2005 18:34

27.01.2005 17:09:25 Stärkerer Dollar drückt Goldkurs

London/Zürich, 27. Jan (Reuters) - Gold hat am Donnerstag im europäischen Handel nach einem kurzen Höhenflug zum Schluss rund zwei Dollar unter dem Vortagsniveau notiert.

Nach einem Anstieg bis zur 100-Tage-Durchschnittslinie bei 428 Dollar, die gleichzeitig einen wichtigen Widerstand bildet, haben überraschend gute Daten aus den USA das gelbe Metall um vier Dollar nachgeben lassen, so Händler.

Auch werfen kommende Ereignisse wie das am Freitag anstehende vorläufige US-Bruttoinlandsprodukt für das vierte Quartal, die Wahlen im Irak am Wochenende und das G 7-Treffen in London in der nächsten Woche ihre Schatten voraus. Marktteilnehmer hätten sich deshalb in Zurückhaltung geübt.

Einer Reuters-Umfrage zufolge dürfte der Goldkurs auch 2005 und damit das vierte Jahr in Folge steigen. So tippten 32 befragte Goldanalysten und -händler im Schnitt auf einen Jahresendstand von 430 Dollar pro Feinunze. Dies kommt einem Plus von vier Prozent im Vergleich zum durchschnittlichen Kurs von 2004 von rund 414 Dollar gleich.

Als Motor des Kursanstiegs werden Dollarschwäche und die weltweit sicherheitspolitisch prekäre Lage genannt. Ein schwacher Dollar macht das in der US-Währung gehandelte Edelmetall für Anleger anderer Währungen attraktiver. 2006 dürfte Gold nach Einschätzungen der Auguren jedoch wieder auf 413 Dollar zurück fallen.

Zum Handelsschluss in Europa notierte die Feinunze Gold bei 424,50/425,30 Dollar nach 426,90/427,70 Dollar am Vorabend.

Das zweite Fixing in London erfolgte bei 424,50 Dollar nach 426,30 Dollar am Vormittag und 425,80 Dollar am Mittwochnachmittag.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.061/16.311 (Vorabend 16.133/16.383) sfr an.

pma/ish

27 Jan 2005 18:35

27.01.2005 17:18:40 COMEX gold backpedals early on switching, firm dlr

NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures held lower Thursday morning in rollover-dominated trade, pressured by a firm dollar, although jitters before Sunday's Iraq presidential election supported the market, dealers said.

Gold for February delivery was down $2.30 at $424.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division at 11:04 a.m. EST (1604 GMT), trading between $426.20 and $424.

Players were reluctant to knock prices from a recent tight range as they focused on rolling positions in the benchmark February gold contract into next active April futures before first notice day for metal delivery on Monday.

April gold slipped $2.20 to $426.80.

Estimated volume was 30,000 lots, with 5,396 switches, at 10 a.m.

"It's all rollover. We're stuck in a range and $430 is monster resistance," said a COMEX floor broker.

Longer-term, gold prices are expected to rise for the fourth straight year in 2005 as dollar weakness and global security fears attract investors to the market.

A Reuters poll showed Thursday that gold should average $430 this year, up 4 percent on 2004's $413.56. But the survey of 32 analysts and senior traders saw it slipping to $413 in 2006.

For now, dealers said uncertainty before the Iraq poll, U.S. President George W. Bush's State of the Union address next week and the upcoming Group of Seven rich nations meeting were supportive.

Chartists peg support in COMEX gold at $420, with resistance at $430.

The dollar rose Thursday as investors waited to see if a G7 meeting will succeed in convincing China and other Asian countries to free their currencies soon. Before the London meeting, European policymakers have urged Asia to let their units rise and share the burden of dollar weakness.

A soft dollar makes dollar-denominated precious metals cheaper for non-U.S. buyers. Additionally, many investors use gold as an alternative to the greenback.

Midmorning the dollar was up a third of a percent versus the euro at $1.3030.

Spot gold fetched $424.40/5.20, below Wednesday's late New York quote at $426.50/7/00. The London afternoon fix was $424.50.

Looking to the latest U.S. data, new orders for durable goods rose 0.6 percent in December despite a sharp plunge in demand for new aircraft, against expectations for a 0.5 percent gain.

Separately, U.S. first-time unemployment benefits claims rose 7,000 to 325,000 last week.

In silver, the Reuters poll saw silver rising 3.3 percent from 2004's $6.29 to an average of $6.50 in 2005, falling to $6.23 in 2006.

Platinum prices should drop below $800 on a possible supply surplus, while palladium also looked weak, the poll said.

March silver fell 5.5 cents to $6.75 an ounce, dealing within a range of $6.835 to $6.725. Spot reached $6.71/74 from yesterday's late quote of $6.77/80. The fix was $6.785.

NYMEX April platinum rose 70 cents to $869.50 an ounce. Spot platinum traded to $866/870.

March palladium was flat at $192 an ounce. Spot stayed at $187/191.

27 Jan 2005 18:47

27.01.2005 18:28:38 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> Europe gold dips as dollar firms [nL2779980]

LONDON - Gold softened in Europe on Thursday as strong U.S. data helped the dollar to recoup earlier losses, denting gold's investment allure, traders said.

But 32 analysts polled by Reuters were upbeat on the metal's outlook for 2005 -- expecting a fourth successive year of gains -- with prices seen surpassing December's 16-1/2 year peak of $456.75 at some point. [nL27543373]

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> POLL-Gold's bull run to roar on during 2005 [nL27543373]

LONDON -- Gold prices will rise for the fourth consecutive year in 2005, with dollar weakness and global security fears keeping the metal in investors' minds as a handy alternative play, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

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> ANALYST VIEW-Reuters precious metals poll 2005/06 [nL25600111]

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> USDA chief demands Japan set date for beef trade [nN27727737]

WASHINGTON - U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns on Thursday asked Japan to set a specific date for resuming imports of American beef, which Tokyo banned after the discovery of the first U.S. case of mad cow disease 13 months ago.

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GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK
> CBOT soy falls to new lows on exports, weather [nN27467464]

CHICAGO - Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade fell to new contract lows in the May and July months on Thursday amid bearish exports and bright weather prospects for the South American soy crop, traders said.

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> EU cattle may have to wear electronic tags -report [nL27709878]

BRUSSELS - Europe's millions of cattle may all have to carry electronic tags in the future as the EU's latest tactic to prevent any recurrence of highly contagious diseases such as foot-and-mouth, a document showed on Thursday.

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> IGC sees fall in wheat crop after '04/05 record [nL27664314]

LONDON - Global wheat output will surge to a record high of 621 million tonnes in the current 2004/05 (July-June) campaign but slip to 599 million in the season ahead, the International Grains Council (IGC) said on Thursday.

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> German biofuel plant to consume 600,000 T grain [nL27582538]

HAMBURG - A new German biofuel plant now starting production will consume up to 600,000 tonnes of grain when fully operational, the company said on Thursday.

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METALS
> LCH changes margin calls for most LME contracts [nL27692101]

LONDON - LCH.Clearnet, which clears trades for the London Metal Exchange (LME), has raised its initial margins for aluminium, NASAAC alloy, zinc and tin, the clearing house said on Thursday. The clearing house lowered the margin for copper.

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> Harmony (HARJ.DE) waives condition on Gold Fields b [nL27399535]

JOHANNESBURG - Harmony (HARJ.DE) said on Thursday it had waived its minimum acceptance condition on its bid for Gold Fields (GFIJ.DE).

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> Germany wants to halve EU rural aid-Polish paper [nL27705526]

WARSAW - Germany wants to slash payments for rural areas in the EU's next seven-year budget period from a proposed total of around 100 billion euros ($130 billion) to 55 billion euros, a leading Polish newspaper reported on Thursday.

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> Morgan Stanley tips molybdenum price to fall [nL27560078]

LONDON - Morgan Stanley has forecast a slump in molybdenum prices next year, after a recent rally on booming steel demand lifted prices to highs last seen in the late 1970s.

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> Kyrgyzstan sets new antimony plant tender [nL27459098]

BISHKEK - Kyrgyzstan said on Thursday it would hold a new tender for its only antimony producer on Feb. 18 after a little-known Russian firm that won the ailing plant last year failed to pay for property rights.

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> Espanola del Zinc in debt talks with creditors [nL27317879]

MADRID - Spain's Espanola del Zinc (/ZNC.MC) has opened talks with creditors Iberdrola (/IBE.MC) and banks about rescheduling debt repayments, which the firm said was important for a new recovery plan.

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> Phelps Dodge profit jumps with copper price [nN27632957]

NEW YORK - Copper miner Phelps Dodge Corp. (/PD.N), riding a wave of high metal prices, on Thursday reported a jump in fourth-quarter profit.

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> AngloGold profit hit by higher costs, gold hedging [nL27257712]

JOHANNESBURG - World number-two gold producer AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (ANGJ.DE) posted a 7 percent fall in adjusted fourth-quarter operating profit as costs climbed and hedging dampened its exposure to a higher gold price.

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> Russia RUSAL sees 2005 aluminium output up 3-5 pct [nL27676538]

MOSCOW - The world's third largest primary aluminium producer, Russia's RUSAL, plans to increase output of the metal next year by 3-5 percent from 2.67 million tonnes produced last year, CEO Alexander Bulygin said on Thursday.

- - - -

SOFT COMMODITIES > Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals seen 651,265T [nL27697937]

ABIDJAN - Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast reached 651,265 tonnes between October 1, 2004 and January 17, 2005, according to an estimate by major exporters on Thursday.

- - - -

> Brazil sells 99.7 pct of federal coffee at auction [nN27662153]

SAO PAULO, Brazil - Brazil's government sold 99.7 percent of the 40,000 60-kg bags of coffee from federal stocks offered to all industry sectors at a monthly auction on Wednesday, Banco do Brasil said.

- - - -

> Rain ends dry spell in some Ivory Coast cocoa [nL27303478]

ABIDJAN - Rain fell in varying quantities in several Ivory Coast cocoa growing regions on Thursday, bringing relief to farmers who had feared weeks of dry weather in most areas would hurt the development of their crops.

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27 Jan 2005 22:16

27.01.2005 21:55:31 NY gold ends lower amid rollover, eyeing dollar

NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures ended a tad lower Thursday in rollover-oriented trade due to a firmer dollar, although uncertainty before Sunday's elections in Iraq and economic events next week lent support, dealers said.

Gold for February delivery slid 60 cents to $426.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, after trading between $428.10 and $424.

Prices of the metal should continue to move inversely to the dollar in the near term, dealers said, as many investors use gold as an alternative to the dollar.

But jitters before the Iraq elections Sunday, next week's State of the Union address by President George W. Bush and the Group of Seven rich nations meeting were likely to help prop up the safe-haven asset for now, traders added.

"Open interest on the exchange is almost balanced between longs and shorts and the question is, Who is going to get squeezed out in the next move? That is more or less going to come from the dollar," a New York metals analyst said.

New York traders stayed busy transferring positions in the benchmark February gold futures contract into next active April before first notice day for delivery on Monday.

April gold slipped 70 cents to end at $428.40.

Final estimated COMEX volume was 78,000 lots, with 17,867 switches, against Wednesday's official tally of 146,501 lots.

Total open interest fell 10,909 to 262,521 lots Jan. 26.

Chartists peg first support in COMEX gold at $420, with resistance at $430.

The dollar rose against most major rivals Thursday. At mid-afternoon, it was up 0.4 percent versus the euro at $1.3032.

Dealers were awaiting preliminary figures for the U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter on Friday, with markets expecting a rise of 3.5 percent.

Gold prices are expected to rise for the fourth straight year in 2005 as dollar weakness and global security fears attract investors to the market, a Reuters poll showed Thursday.

The survey of 32 analysts and senior traders saw gold averaging $430 this year, up 4 percent on 2004's $413.56. But gold was seen slipping to $413 in 2006.

Spot gold reached $425.70/6.50, below Wednesday's late New York quote at $426.50/7/00. London's afternoon fix was $424.50.

A new U.S. gold exchange-traded fund, iShares COMEX Gold Trust, will launch on the American Stock Exchange on Friday under the stock symbol IAU, the exchange and Barclays Global Investors said Thursday.

The ETF's net asset value will be set daily, based on the COMEX settlement price for spot-month gold futures, less the trust's expenses and liabilities.

"The news is interesting, but they also only put 15,000 ounces into the depository, and that is really minor compared to the other ETF," said a gold analyst. He was referring to streetTRACKS, which had gold holdings of 4.9 million ounces as of Jan. 26.

In silver, the Reuters poll saw prices rising 3.3 percent from 2004's $6.29 to an average of $6.50 in 2005, falling to $6.23 in 2006.

Platinum prices should drop below $800 on a possible supply surplus, while palladium also looked weak, the poll said.

March silver rose 1.5 cents to $6.82 an ounce, trading from $6.835 to $6.725. Spot hit $6.78/81, near Wednesday's late quote of $6.77/80. The fix was $6.785.

April platinum rose $2.5 to $871.30 an ounce. Spot platinum was worth $865/870.

March palladium lost 25 cents to $191.75 an ounce. Spot edged to $188/193.

28 Jan 2005 10:19

28.01.2005 09:14:52 TOCOM gold falls in cautious trade

TOKYO, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures eased on Friday pressured by a stronger yen, but uncertainty ahead of elections in Iraq and the release of key U.S. economic data stopped traders from selling the precious metal aggressively.

The benchmark December gold contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange finished down six yen per gram at 1,421 yen, after moving between 1,416 yen and 1,424 yen.

Other months fell by two to six yen.

Traders said players were reluctant to trade actively ahead of the release of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data at 1330 GMT and Sunday's elections in Iraq, both of which are expected to dictate the dollar's fortunes.

"The feeling is to wait and see what happens on the 30th. It's difficult to trade actively before that," a Tokyo analyst said.

Signs of instability in Iraq are likely to lead to safe-haven buying of gold.

In the currency market, the yen jumped to a nine-day high against the dollar on Friday after a Chinese official said the time was ripe for China to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate regime.

However, the dollar soon recouped its losses after the official said the comments were his own and did not reflect either the Chinese government's or the central bank's policy.

The dollar was fetching 103.18/3.24 yen at 0630 GMT, against 103.04/09 yen in late New York trade.

U.S. gold futures inched down on Thursday due to a firmer dollar, although uncertainty before Sunday's elections in Iraq and economic events next week provided support.

Spot gold inched up in Asia and was fetching $426.75/7.50 an ounce at 0630 GMT, compared with $425.70/6.50 last quoted in New York.

On the domestic front, Japanese gold imports in 2004 rose almost 68 percent from a year earlier to 73.84 tonnes, preliminary data by the Ministry of Finance showed on Friday.

Analysts have attributed the increase in imports in part to brisk demand among investors seeking to diversify their assets ahead of the end to the government's blanket guarantee on bank deposits in March.

Benchmark December platinum futures closed down one yen at 2,793 yen per gram.

Spot platinum was at $867/872, up from New York levels of $865/870 an ounce.

December TOCOM silver was at 224.7 yen per 10 grams, down 0.5 yen.

Spot silver was at $6.78/80 an ounce versus $6.77/80 in New York.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams: For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,421 (down 6) 57,050
SILVER 224.7 (down 0.5) 1,972
PLATINUM 2,793 (down 1) 28,500
PALLADIUM 629 (down 5) 639

28 Jan 2005 14:26

28.01.2005 13:20:02 Europe gold stuck in ranges, eyes US data, dollar

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Gold sat tight in a narrow band on Friday as the market struggled to crack resistance at $428 per ounce, but currency moves and the Iraqi elections were expected to spark volatility in coming sessions, dealers said.

Support for bullion could arrive later as the dollar may feel pressure after U.S. GDP data is released. Safe haven purchases could also be on the cards, with investors alert to any escalation of violence around the Sunday elections.

Spot gold stood at $425.60/426.40 per troy ounce by 1200 GMT from $425.70/426.50 late in New York on Thursday.

"The market is looking very quiet so far -- tracking what the euro does -- I think most people are waiting for the U.S. data before deciding on any major moves," one dealer said.

U.S. fourth quarter GDP is due at 1330 GMT.

Major currencies stuck to tight ranges as investors waited to see how Group of Seven and key emerging nations meetings next week would pressure China and other Asian countries to let their currencies rise.

The euro was steady, near the middle of recent ranges against the dollar at $1.3033.

A stronger euro versus the dollar makes gold more attractive to non-U.S. investors. But European policy makers recently urged Asian countries, especially China, to let their currencies rise to share the burden of the dollar's three year decline.

HSBC metals analyst Alan Williamson said he expected little policy change out of the G7 gathering.

"This is likely to refocus attention on the dollar/euro which should come under renewed pressure once again," he said in a daily report.

Silver softened to $6.79/6.81 from $6.78/6.81 in New York on Thursday.

Platinum was flat at $865.00/870.00, while palladium eased to 187.00/192.00 from $188.00/193.00.

28 Jan 2005 15:46

28.01.2005 14:40:43 Europe gold inches higher after U.S. GDP data

* Gold nudges higher after release of preliminary U.S. GDP figures for the fourth quarter. Growth of 3.1 percent was seen, against a forecast 3.5 percent. Spot quoted at $427.10/427.90 a troy ounce, up some $0.90 from pre-data levels, and compared with $425.70/426.50 at the close in New York on Thursday. Euro rose to $1.3070 from $1.3030. Gold now targets $428.00 resistance. * Silver moves up to $6.84/6.86 from $6.78/6.81. * Platinum static at $865.00/870.00. * Palladium little changed at $187.00/192.00 from $188.00/193.00.

07 Feb 2005 08:52

07.02.2005 08:41:42 TOCOM gold at 3-week low on NY loss, soft bullion

TOKYO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures lost further ground on Monday to touch a three-week low, taking their cue from losses in New York and soft bullion prices.

Talk that the International Monetary Fund, the world's third-largest holder of gold bullion, may sell gold or revalue its holding also continued to weigh on the market.

The benchmark December gold contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange finished down six yen per gram at 1,393 yen, just two yen off the day's high of 1,395 yen.

The session trough of 1,388 yen was the lowest level for the benchmark contract since it slipped to 1,385 yen on Jan. 17.

Other months fell by four to seven yen.

"Gold is looking a bit heavy at the top with the news of the possible gold sales by the IMF," a Tokyo-based analyst said.

Gold futures ended at 3 ½ month lows in New York on Friday
for the second day in a row due to currency-based selling and
the potential for gold sales or revaluation by the IMF.

The IMF will look into using its huge gold reserves to help finance debt relief for the world's poorest countries at the urging of the Group of Seven rich nations, G7 ministers said on Saturday.

The United States has opposed the plan, saying it has other plans for alleviating poverty.

The analyst said the market could recover if strong U.S. resistance derails the proposal.

In the bullion market, gold fell although it was off its near four-month low. The recovery was helped by investor demand.

Spot gold was trading at $414.30/80 at 0630 GMT at TOCOM's close, compared to $415.20 last quoted in New York.

Total gold turnover on TOCOM was estimated at a moderate 79,122 lots, up from Friday's 56,668 lots.

In the currency market, the dollar hit a three-month high against the euro and closed in on a one-month high versus the yen after China told the G7 at the weekend that it is committed to revaluing its currency but will not do so soon.

The dollar was fetching 104.26/32 yen against 104.07 yen in late Friday New York trade.

In other TOCOM precious metals, December TOCOM silver finished down 0.3 yen at 221.7 yen per 10 grams, the day's high, recovering from a trough of 220.4 yen, which was the lowest level since the contract fell to 220.0 on Jan. 13.

A wait-and-see mood pervaded the market after the recovery in the dollar's value.

Spot silver was at $6.60/6.62 an ounce versus $6.61/6.64 in New York.

The benchmark December TOCOM platinum futures contract closed up 11 yen at 2,861 yen, led by technical buying by fund operators.

Spot platinum was at $868/873, up from New York levels of $862/866 an ounce.

Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

Closing prices are in yen per gram except for silver, which is in yen per 10 grams: For open interest details please click

Closing price Turnover (lots)
GOLD 1,393 (down 6) 79,122
SILVER 221.7 (down 0.3) 3,588
PLATINUM 2,861 (up 11) 29,636
PALLADIUM 609 (up 1) 813

07 Feb 2005 13:26

07.02.2005 13:04:35 Europe gold dips on firm dollar, IMF sales study

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Gold was struggling to hold key support in Europe on Monday, unsettled by dollar strength and confusion over what the IMF might do with its huge gold reserves to help relieve Third World debt, dealers said.

A shadow has been cast over the market by the British-led proposal, discussed at the Group of Seven rich nations meeting at the weekend, to revalue or sell some of the IMF's huge gold reserves to fund debt relief for the world's poorest countries.

Spot gold stood at $414.50/415.25 per troy ounce by 1140 GMT, compared with $415.20 late in New York on Friday.

"This (IMF proposal) is bruising sentiment massively and $412 support is quite a critical level -- it's a trendline going back to early 2001," analyst Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com told Reuters.

A communique from the G7 meeting said the IMF had been asked to look at ways of using part of its 100 million ounces of gold holdings to help alleviate Third World poverty.

Analysts said the prospect of outright sales was unlikely due to expected opposition from the United States, which has key voting rights within the IMF.

U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said the United States had other plans for alleviating poverty. Asked about using IMF gold stocks, he said: "The United States is not convinced that's the necessary way to do it."

Yet bullion dealers have been spooked as IMF sales would weigh heavily on a market that has started 2005 weakly after a three-year bull run that saw prices scale a 16-1/2-year peak at $456.75 in December.

The dollar was also putting gold under pressure in Europe as a higher U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for non-U.S. investors.

The dollar rose to a three-month high against the euro and was near a one-month peak versus the yen after China told the G7 it was committed to revaluing its currency but would not do so soon. The euro was last at $1.2850.

John Reade of UBS Investment Bank said the prospect of IMF sales would keep gold under pressure until the IMF's April meeting, which was due to discuss debt relief.

"While we do not expect IMF gold sales to materialise, traders are unlikely to trust this judgment until greater clarity is forthcoming on the issue and gold may weaken further," he said in a daily report.

"We have lowered our one-month forecast to $410/oz accordingly although we hold our three-month forecast of $440/oz as we expect the market to snap back once revaluation and its implications are accepted by the market," he added.

In other precious metals silver moved back with gold to $6.57/6.60, versus late New York levels on Friday of $6.61/6.64.

Platinum firmed slightly to $865.00/870.00 from $862.00/866.00 previously, while palladium moved down to $178.00/183.00 from $180.00/184.00.

07 Feb 2005 14:07

07.02.2005 13:26:32 Silver fixes down, Europe gold thrown on defensive

* Silver fixed lower on Monday at 659.50 cents per ounce compared with previous fix at 665.50 cents. Spot market dips in line with gold to $6.58/6.61 by 1217 GMT, versus late New York levels on Friday of $6.61/6.64.

* Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at 2.210, 2.228, 2.260 and 2.190 for one, three, six and 12 months respectively.

* Gold falls to $414.50/415.25 per troy ounce by 1217 GMT versus $415.20 in New York late on Friday, having dropped to $413.00 earlier, last seen in mid October.

* Market under pressure from decision for IMF to look into using its gold reserves for debt relief and firmer dollar. Euro last at $1.2856.

* Platinum at $866.00/870.00 from $862.00/866.00 previously.

* Palladium at $178.00/183.00 from $180.00/184.00.

07 Feb 2005 18:07

07.02.2005 18:00:06 Commodities News Summary

TOP NEWS
> COMEX gold edges up from 3-1/2-month low early [nN07402671]

NEW YORK - U.S. gold futures rose from a 3-1/2-month low on Monday morning, with the market tracking the euro/dollar, as dealers waited for word about what the International Monetary Fund might do regarding possible gold sales or a revaluation of its vast holdings.

- - - -

> London coffee hits 2-year high on fund interest [nL07560730]

LONDON - London benchmark coffee futures touched a two-year peak on Monday on what traders said was buying by large investment funds.

The market pared gains after initial interest as coffee producers and profit takers sold into the highs.

- - - -

> UN says mad cow tests working, despite outbreaks [nL07115203]

ROME - Testing for mad cow disease is working in catching cases of the lethal brain-wasting disorder, the United Nations said on Monday, in the wake of several new discoveries of BSE-related cases.

- - - -

> Bush asks $587 mln farm cuts, $250,000 subsidy cap [nWBT002409]

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration proposed a $587 million cut in farm subsidy spending for fiscal 2006 and, tackling a sore subject in farm country, a "hard" cap of $250,000 on the maximum payment per farmer.

- - - -

METALS > COMEX copper charges higher on short-cover buying [nN07410825]

NEW YORK - U.S. copper futures shot higher at the open and continued rising on short-cover buying on Monday in response to higher prices in London, traders said.

One trader cited a Chilean economic report that cited hefty copper exports as a reason for the gain.

- - - -

GRAINS/OILSEEDS/LIVESTOCK
> EU wheat down as trade sees repeat of low refund [nL07106262]

PARIS - Europe's wheat markets traded mostly lower on Monday, still suffering the aftershock of the EU's decision to grant low export subsidies last Thursday, a policy likely to be continued this week at least, traders said.

- - - -

> Russia grain lobby unhappy with EU subsidies [nL07710477]

MOSCOW - The Russian Grain Union, the main industry lobby, asked the government on Monday to persuade the European Union to abolish grain export subsidies, which it said were hurting Russian grain growers.

- - - -

> German wheat intervention offers rise sharply [nL07717409]

HAMBURG - German farmers offered some 110,000 tonnes of wheat for European Union intervention subsidies in the past week, about double the rate for most of January, state purchasing agency BLE said on Monday.

That brought total wheat intervention offers so far this season to some 982,000 tonnes.

- - - -

SOFTS > Pakistan in sugar market, but not for 1 mln T [nN07384657]

NEW YORK - Pakistan was said to be negotiating to buy 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes of white sugar for prompt delivery, but most brokers on Monday said it would not purchase the 1.0 million tonnes a Pakistani official had said it would.

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07 Feb 2005 18:10

07.02.2005 17:47:13 Weltwährungsfonds-Spekulationen belasten Gold

London/Zürich, 07. Feb (Reuters) - Gold hat am Montag nur mit Mühe das Niveau der Vorwoche verteidigen können. Fortgesetzte Spekulation um eine in der vergangenen Woche bei dem G 7-Treffen ins Spiel gebrachte Neubewertung oder einen Teilverkauf der Goldreserven des Weltwährungsfonds überschatteten den Goldhandel, sagten Händler. Die Reserven könnten dazu eingesetzt werden, um einen Schuldenerlass für die Länder der dritten Welt zu finanzieren. Der Fonds ist der weltweit drittgrösste Goldeigentümer.

Im Tagesverlauf schrammte Gold dann auch nur knapp an einem Viermonatstief bei 413 Dollar vorbei. Der Weltwährungsfonds-Vorschlag habe Goldkäufer massiv verstimmt und könnte den Kurs unter die kritische Marke von 412 Dollar drücken. Auch wenn die USA dem Vorschlag bisher ablehnend gegenüber standen, dürften die Gerüchte den Goldpreis weiter belasten, bis nicht endgültig und abschliessend Klarheit geschaffen werde, so ein Händler weiter.

Gold stand zum europäischen Handelsschluss bei 414,20/415,00 Dollar nach 414,70/415,50 Dollar am Vorabend. Das zweite Fixing in London erfolgte bei 414,40 Dollar nach 414,50 Dollar am Vormittag und 415,90 Dollar am Freitagnachmittag.

Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16.080/16.330 (Vorabend 15.966/16.216) sfr an.

pma/ajs