Beiträge von keepitshort

die US-Dollar-Entwicklung ist wichtig für die Silberpreisentwicklung
wobei die letzten 6 Monate
auch auch die nächsten 6 Monate in der Zukunft
der Ölpreis die US-Dollar-Entwicklung stark beeinflusst

oilprice up --> silverprice up

chart US-Dollar vs Zinsen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news…-low-asia-threat-nab-says
imho US-Dollar down for the next 3 month
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die Ölpreisentwicklung
https://www.bloomberg.com/grap…-opec-production-targets/
imho oil-price up for the next 3 month
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news…nth-as-u-s-dollar-weakens
Equity markets recovering from recent routs boosted confidence in bullish energy demand forecasts.
Oil prices were strong because the stock market stabilized,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “As long as we are going to see stock market stability, oil prices are going to look pretty good.”

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ck-on-wall-street-s-radar
Strategists are looking for fresh drivers on which to pin the dollar’s slump amid a breakdown in the relationship with interest-rate differentials, traditionally a key forcebehind moves. While the two-year Treasury yield has continued its ascent this year -- breaching 2 percent last month for the first time since 2008 -- its 120-day correlation with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has tumbled to 0.23, from an average of 0.57 in 2017. A reading of 1 would indicate the gauges move in lockstep,while minus 1 means they movein opposite directions.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ep-rooted-dollar-sickness
The FX market has been very surprised by some of the breakdowns in correlations we’ve seen,” Nordvig said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Feb. 13, noting that the dollar-yen exchange rate has decoupled from U.S. interest rates. “The really big story is that the dollar is tanking.

irgendwo gelesen
bei der Ölpreis-Vorhersage
hat Goldmännchen
im Trend als Trendfolger richtige Prognosen abgegeben

allerdings liegen die Prognosen oft daneben
wenn der Ölpreis sich am top oder bottom
befindet
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die Videos mit Jeff Currie von Goldman
sind auch nicht sehr interessant
nur reden
keine bildlichen Darstellungen mit Charts
und Charts im Vergleich mit anderen Einflussgrössen

Jeff Currie ist für mich sowas wie die ARD und ZDF Info-Show

02:36 Warrent Buffet started bying silver in 1998
and sold it around 2006
- 129 million ounces of silver
- silver went up two fold
in that time-window of Warrant Buffet silver accumulation

- that Warren Buffet silver was sold, when thee silver-ETF started and somone needed
silver for that silver-ETF
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03:10 129 million ounces of silver for the silver-ETF SLV
COMEX 133 million ounces of silver
it not means that JP-Morgan wons all that
but JP-Morgan owns a lot that is outside
and constantley pulling silver
out of the silver-ETF SLV

because JP-Morgan is not an authorized participant
but can swap SLV for silver-bullion

JP-organ is the custodian for the silver in SLV
and are in charge of the 300 million ounces of silver in the SLV
that are in the vaults in London
the fox will guard the chicken

05:40 Why has JP-Morgan such a huge silver-position


17:40 the FED increases interest-rates
to have enough ammunition in a coming recession
to cut interest-rates

JPMorgan Has the Biggest Silver Position in Modern History | SD Weekly Metals & Markets

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hier mal den US-Bondmarkt betrachtet (Kürzel: TLT)
USO oil-price-ETF
UUP US-Dollar-bullish-ETF

http://stockcharts.com/article…ap-bear-market-rally.html

und weiter viele Charts
http://www.stockcharts.com/articles/
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der Ölpreis wird weiter steigen
target für die oil-inventories
wird neu definiert
https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ere-s-where-they-might-go

Turn Back the Clock
The oil market is emerging from a long period of oversupply that drove prices to 12-year lows and lifted U.S. crude inventories to the highest levelin decades. That means any calculation of a five-year average “is overly weightedby three years of excessive inventory,” according to Saudi Arabia’s Al-Falih.
The average has been rising steadily throughout the price slump. For January, when the period included in the calculation switches from 2012-2016 to 2013-2017, the number will jump by so much that it almost converges with current stockpile levels -- a rather hollow victory in OPEC’s quest to eliminate the glut.
Some of that excesswould be filtered outby comparing inventories to an earlier periodbefore the surplus emerged. Using 2011-2015 would indeed justify Al-Falih’s argument that OPEC has some way to gobefore the job is done.

update: oil https://www.bloomberg.com/search?query=oil

der US-Dollar spielt eine wichtig Rolle
bei der Entwicklung vom Silberpreis
das war auch so beim Silbercrash im April-2011
z.B. US-Dollar up --> Silber down oder zumindest ein grosses Warnsignal

einfach nur die Charts ansehen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ck-on-wall-street-s-radar
America’s budget deficit swelled in the first four months of the fiscal year, increasing 11 percent to $176 billion between October and January from the same period a year earlier, according to a Treasury Department report released Monday.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ep-rooted-dollar-sickness

ttps://www.jmbullion.com/investing-guide/pricing-payments/who-owns-most-silver-bullion-today/

depository-silver-stocks
Brinks
Scotia Mocatta
HSBC
Delaware
JP Morgan
CNT

No other silver warehouses on the COMEX have stockpiled silver like JPMorgan. Overall the other five silver warehouses combined have dropped their silver inventories over the same near six year timeframe.
This data has led many silver industry commentators to publicly speculate over JPMorgan’s motivations as their silver warehouse now holds close to 50% of all deliverable silver bullion on the COMEX (the largest silver price influencing commodity exchange in the world).
[Blockierte Grafik: https://cdn.jmbullion.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/who-owns-the-most-silver-bullion-today-image-4-e1492548619938.jpg]
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How much Silver Bullion does SLV have?
https://www.jmbullion.com/inve…ost-silver-bullion-today/

Interestingly unlike the popular gold ETF GLD, silver spot price declines from the 2011 peak have not really reduced the amount of silver bullion JPMorgan is custodian of for SLV.
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http://www.innovativewealth.co…on-monitor-december-2014/

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.innovativewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/silver-price-vs-SLV-shares-outstanding.jpg]

Gold:
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.innovativewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/gold-price-vs-GLD-shares-outstanding.jpg]
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sucht: http://news.gold-eagle.com/gold-news
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The Dollar – From Bohemia To Bust
http://news.gold-eagle.com/article/dollar-–-bohemia-bust/921

ratio SP500 book to price
ratio SP500 to sales = ??? http://news.morningstar.com/cl…sp?docId=3068&page=3&CN=C

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.news.gold-eagle.com/sites/default/files/evg020918-1.png]

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Silver In Position To Lead Gold ratio = Goldpreis / Silberpreis
http://news.gold-eagle.com/art…er-position-lead-gold/923
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Hochzinsphase und die Jahre davor
http://news.gold-eagle.com/art…ket-decline-mean-gold/924

The data to support this coming wave of inflation can be seen from the graph of the total reserve balances held at the Fed. Recall that what appears on this chart is money the Fed has created in order to buy sufficient bonds needed to force interest rates lower:

http://news.gold-eagle.com/art…forming-long-term-top/396
update: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESBALNS

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.news.gold-eagle.com/sites/default/files/aaron092916-2.png]

We can see that there is no precedent for the amount of money created since 2008. The Fed -- and other major world central banks -- have embarked on a money-printing spree that will go down in history as an experiment like none other. Note that there *is* a line on this graph dating back to 1950... it is just so low on the Y-axis that it barely registers when compared to the nearly $2.4 trillion created by the bank since 2008.
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am 28. Januar 2018 hab ich hier dazu schon einiges zum US-Dollar reingestellt

http://www.gold-eagle.com/arti…art-world-serious-trouble
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http://www.mcoscillator.com/le…ange_in_bull-bear_spread/
[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.mcoscillator.com/data/charts/weekly/Fed_Assets_Feb2018.gif]
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http://www.mcoscillator.com/le…ries_me_hy_bond_a-d_line/

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Nachfrage als Industriemetall verstehen
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gesucht: https://news.goldcore.com/
gefunden: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1518447723.php

weakness:
The worst performing metal this week was palladium, down 6.84 percent. According to the weekly Bloomberg survey, gold traders are more bearish than bullish on prices for the first week since early December.

opportunities:
The silver price might also rise due to improving global economic growth and the expanding middle class in China fueling demand for jewelry and solar panels.
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short-days-of-production palladium-grüne-Säule 120
short-days-of-production silver-grüne-Säule 200
short-days-of-production copper-grüne-Säule 20

https://news.goldcore.com/ie/g…r-prices-physical-silver/

https://www.zerohedge.com/news…-quantity-physical-silver

[Blockierte Grafik: https://news.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/01/Snip20180116_3.png]
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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article61287.html

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2018/Jan/Snip20180116_1.png]
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wichtig: Video
JP Morgan, Scotiabank, & Silver with Ed Steer

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video-time 14:00 -- Bear Stearns -- JP Morgan -- short-position in the banks participation report
video-time 18:44 --> gold-inventories vs gold-price from year-2011 until year-2017
video-time 18:44 --> silver-inventories vs silver-price from year-2011 until year-2017
--Bank Participation Report Silver-- wird im Video ausführlich erklärt:

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in Shanghai werden
auch Silver-future-contracts
gehandelt
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Shanghai versus London-Metals-Exchange (LME)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news…eze-life-from-oil-futures

The more important issue is that a yuan-denominated contract will never lead the oil market so long as Beijing drives foreign traders away by keeping its capital account closed. Few international investors are going to commit to a contract that leaves them dependent on the heavily controlled, illiquid offshore renminbi to settle trades.

https://www.silverinstitute.org/2016-supply-demand/

On a country basis, China consumes the most silver followed by the United States and Japan.

When will a Gold & Silver Bullion Shortage Arise?
https://www.jmbullion.com/inve…r-bullion-shortage-arise/

The largest bullion shortage of the 21st Century to date occurred during the 2008 Financial Crisis. From September 2008 well into the spring of 2009, the world’s largest Government Mints & Private Mints could not supply enough bullion bars and coins to meet global demand.
North American bullion dealers experienced product shortages during this timeframe (many lasting months in duration). What inventory was available then was priced much higher over spot with large product premiums compared to more normal economic time spans.
Take a look in the following two charts at how eBay premiums for gold and silver coins more than doubled during this late 2008 / early 2009 time frame.
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Who Owned the Most Silver Bullion?
https://www.jmbullion.com/inve…wned-most-silver-bullion/
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Silver Solar Demand
https://www.jmbullion.com/inve…tals/silver-solar-demand/
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am 26. März 2018 startet das oil-future-trading
an der commodity-exchange-Shanghai in China

https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ures-set-to-start-trading
- Crude futures to begin trading in Shanghai on March 26: CSRC
- Move seen as effort by China to develop its own oil benchmark
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ures-market-quicktake-q-a
chart --> China surpasses U.S. as world's biggest crude importer

4. Why didn’t China begin trading futures until now?
China introduced domestic crude futures in 1993, only to stop a year later because of volatility. In recent years, it repeatedly delayed its new contract amid turmoil in equities and financial markets.

5. What’s China’s track record in commodities?
Nickel was the last major commodity to be listed there in 2015; within six weeks, trading in Shanghai surpassed benchmark futures on the London Metal Exchange, or LME.

6. Will foreigners buy Chinese oil futures?
7. Could the yuan challenge the dollar’s dominance in oil?

The reference shelf: ---> weitere Internetlinks
z.B. https://www.bloomberg.com/gadf…royuan-s-time-hasn-t-come
In contrast to metals markets, where it accounts for almost half of global consumption, China is just one player among many in crude. Its consumption of 579 million metric tons in 2016 trailed the European Union's 613 million tons and was well behind the 863 million tons in the U.S., according to BP Plc's latest statistical review of the global market, which gave China a share of about 13 percent.

interessanter chart hier die Beschreibung zum Chart
Look, for instance, at the most-traded product on the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, iron ore. While mainland commodity markets have seen febrile activity in recent years, bid-ask spreads are still several times higher than those on major contracts traded in London and New York. That makes trading more costly, volatility higher, and price discovery weaker -- and as a major consumer of crude, Beijing ought to be opposed to that sort of change.

wichtig ist das der US-Dollar an Wert verliert

das keiner mehr in US-Bondmärkte investieren will
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ich würde keine Euro in
ein Griechenlandprojekt investieren

und bei den Griechenlandanleihen
machten nur die cleveren Hedgefonds Gewinne
der Kleinanleger der Greichenlandanleihen
kaufte hat viel Geld damit verloren.
Kenne eine intelligenten Ingenieur der hat damit ca. 30.000 Euro verloren

Gab mal so eine Aktion von Politiker in Deutschland
ich kaufe Griechenlandanleihen aus Solidarität zu Griechenland

es könnte somit nicht nur in den USA
sondern auch in Europa
Probleme am Finanzmarkt geben
dann hätten wir so ein Ereignis wie 1987
oder wie 1929

nach 1929 löste dann der 2. Weltkrieg
das Fianzproblem in den USA
die USA waren nach 1945 die Kriegsgewinnler

nach 1987 gabs in den USA den Aufschwung
durch Computertechnologie (Microsoft, Internet, Satelittentechnik, Chiptechnik)
1987 hatte China noch keine grossen High-Tech-Firmen die Apple-smartphones bauten
China ist ein grosses Problem für die USA

USA Top Secret: Die Gold-Verschwörung

Freitag der 2. Feb 2018
war wirklich interessant
im daily-chart beim Goldpreis und auch beim Silberpreis noch mal
ein kräftiges Minus rote Kerze

wobei Goldmansachs und zwei weitere US-Grossbanken
auf einen steigenden Ölpreis setzen

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.hiked its short-term crude oil price forecast by as much as 33 percent, saying the market is now likely balanced.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news…-market-likely-in-balance

Aus meiner Sicht müsste mir einem steigenden Ölpreis
der US-Dollar weiter an Wert verlieren
und der Goldpreis und Silberpreis steigen

irgendwie habe ich das Gefühl
man manipuliert an schachen Handelstagen
an bevorstehenden Wochenende z.B. Freitag
oder vor einem langen Wochenende mit anschliessendem US-Feiertag
die Kurse

gelesen habe ich ja schon mehrmals
dass z.B. Nachts um 02:00 bei schwachem Handelsvolumen
der Silberpreis plötzlich kräftige Preiskorrekturen nun unten durchführt

der Goldmarkt und auch der Silbermarkt
wir von der USA oder auch mit Unterstützer aus Europa manipuliert

diese Manipulation vom Goldpreis gabs ja schon so um 1974
müsste jetzt die alten Bücher Herauskramen
Ferdinand Lips (ein Schweizer Bankfachmann)
hat da mal einiges dazu geschrieben
aber das ist Gold-History

interessant ist dass dieses Spielchen weiterläuft
wo doch Gold meist
3000 Meter Tief aus der Erde geholt wird
um dieses Gold dann als Münze aufzubewahren
oder dieses Gold in einem Banksafe dann wieder unter der Erde gelagert wird.

Als Zahlungsmittel dient Gold nicht
sondern der US-Dollar der Euro
welche mit Papierversprechen gedeckt sind

die Griechenlandanleihen sollten jedem im Gedächtnis sein
besser klinkt die Target-Salden in Europa
da wüsste ich jetzt auch nicht wie die errechnet werden

Europa, Europa überalles
von der Maas bis an die Memel
das gabs schon zur Zeit von Napoleon

die Geldmittel zur Zeit von Napoleon
und die Geldmittel Zahlungsmittel nach der Zeit von Napoleon
wären wieder sehr interessant
irgenwas lief da auch mit Inflation
die Kriege (Friedensmissionen) muss man irgendwie finanzieren

der fallende Dollar
bringt den Silberpreis zum steigen

https://www.bloomberg.com/news…hy-it-could-keep-plunging

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das ganze kann man auch mit der Zinsdifferenz
GermanZins minus USZins betrachten
https://www.bloomberg.com/view…e-laid-bare-in-real-rates
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im Moment ist aus meiner Sicht
die Ölpreisentwicklung sehr wichtig

aus meiner Sicht
wird die nächsten 8 Wochen
der Ölpreis weiter steigen
und das wird
den Silberpreis nach oben treiben
und die Aktien von Silberminen werden dabei weiter an Wert gewinnen

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Bericht ist zwar vom 1. Oktober 2014
aber in einem Flugkörper kann man keine
schweren Blei-Akkus einbauen
Silber-Zink-Akkus haben da eben die höchste Energiedichte bei geringstem Gewicht
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$251 Million Tomahawk Missile Contract Will Require Silver

https://goldsilverbitcoin.com/…ract-will-require-silver/

Although much of the discussion surrounding the true composition of the Tomahawk missile is speculative, a boisterous group claims that 480 ounces of silver (16kg) is needed per cruise missile.

According ausairpower.net
The Control Section of the missile contains the Silver Zinc battery power supply and launch aircraft captive power supply, the strapdown inertial package and the electromechanical servoes used to actuate the wings, the aircraft electrical interface and the active optical proximity fusing system. The flight control employs roll stabilisation by differential actuation of the wings, which also provide pitch/yaw control. The wings are constructed as a steel casting with a honeycomb trailing edge.

https://www.bullionstar.com/charts/

der merkwürdige Silbermetallsammler
JP-Morgan

im April-2011 bekam JP-Morgan dann auch Probleme wegen Bear-Stearns
aber ab dem Jahr-2014 gings ja dann im Kurs aufwärts wogegen der Silberpreis gesunken ist

angeblich hat JP-Morgan pyhsisches Silber
oder haben die das ganze Silberproblem mit dem ETF-Papiersilber gelöst

time-will-tell beim nächsten silver-up-trend

Betrifft: US-Dollar -- US-Zinsen - German-yield -- japanese-yield --> US-Bondmarket

Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2007… and all of this was based on interest rates that were close to or even below ZERO.
All of this is at risk of blowing up courtesy of this spike inflation.

The Most Important Chart In The World Is In Serious Trouble
http://www.gold-eagle.com/arti…art-world-serious-trouble
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01:12 Dollar long-term-chart

Gold & Silver Price Update - January 24, 2018 + US Dollar Meltdown