After traveling extensively in the fourth quarter of 2018, I am convinced that the world is one or at most two quarters away from a global policy panic, signs of which have already emerged in the first days of 2019.
What would this look like? Policymakers throwing everything they can at an economy that is sinking fast and still reeling from the mistakes of the last decade, exactly six months after those same policymakers said the crisis was over. 
As 2019 gets under way, Europe is sliding back into recession despite a negative European Central Bank policy rate, and Germany and its marquee names suddenly look like far greater risks than Italy’s populist government.
Australia is a mess, both politically and economically, as the royal commission has left banks tightening their lending standards in an economy that is at least 50% driven by housing.
Strains in the US credit market reached a crescendo in the first trading days of 2019, as Barclay’s high-yield spread climbed more than 500 basis points above US Treasuries. This combined with a bear-market run in equities from the September highs saw US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell trotting out the latest version of the Fed in an interview where he shared the stage with his two bubble-blowing predecessors. There was plenty of egg on Powell’s face as his promise to “listen to the market” came barely two weeks after he put on a hawkish show at the December 20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. [...]