Der Wolfgang wird wohl von Gewinn Mitnahmen beim Gold sprechen, oder von einer überfälligen Korrektur.
Entweder man bemerkt`s, oder eben nicht!
Denke es hat was mit Optionsverfalltag zu tun!
Gruss
ThaiGuru
Beiträge von ThaiGuru
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Danke für diesen Artikel aus dem Standart zum Goldpreis und seinen Aussischten. Dass der Autor die Chancen von Gold positiv sieht, und den Einfluss des Zentralbanken Goldes auf den Preis nicht mehr für massgeblich hält, sehe ich genau so.
Nur in einem Punkt irrt sich der Autor des Beitrages hingegen ganz gewaltig:
ZitatAllein in den Tresoren der Deutschen Bundesbank liegen mehr als 3.400 Tonnen
Das ist eine komplett falsche Annahme, die leider, obwohl es schon lange öffentlich bekannt ist, dass sich diese (ehemaligen!) physischen Gold Reserven der Deutschen Bundesbank von ca. 3400 Tonnen zum grössten Teil schon seit langer Zeit nicht mehr in Deuschland befinden, trotzdem immer noch fällschlicherweise für bare Münze genommen, und in Zeitungsberichten verbreitet wird.
Ganz klar ist:
Mindestens ca. 1700 Tonnen Gold werden von den Amerikanern für Deutschland "betreut", und in den USA gelagert, in Westpoint um etwas genauer zu sein, und nicht etwa in Fort Knox, oder New York, wie zum Teil immer wieder geschrieben wird.
Von den restlichen ca. 1700 Tonnen befindet sich höchstwahrscheinlich nur noch ein kleiner physischer Rest in den Tresoren der Bundesbank.
Die genauen Mengenangaben werden von der Bundes Bank nicht veröffentlicht. Diese Daten zu den physischen Goldmengen werden wie ein grosses Staatsgeheimnis behandelt.Es ist zumindest stark zu vermuten, dass die Bundes Bank bereits jetzt schon fast physisch Goldfrei ist, weil die Bundes Bank dieses Gold der Deutschen gegen Zinsen an div. Gold Bullion Banken verliehen, oder mit der FED, IMF, Weltbank, oder BIS, etc. geswappt hat, und es physisch gar nicht mehr zurückerhalten kann, weil erstens die Amerikaner anscheinend kein Interesse haben diese 1700 Tonnen an Deutschland jemals wieder zurückzugeben, und zweitens weil die geswappten Gold Mengen von den Swapp Partnern gar nicht mehr zurückgegeben werden können, weil diese grosse Menge am Goldmarkt bei einem heute schon bestehenden Produktionsdefizit von min. 1500 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr, nicht mehr wiederbeschafft werden kann, ohne dass die Goldpreise dabei explodieren würden.
Was die Bundesbank neben einem kläglichen Rest an physischem Gold noch besitzt, sind Gold Forderungen die nur noch auf dem Papier bestehen.
Oder einfacher gesagt:
Das pysische Gold der Deutschen ist vermutlich grösstenteils weg, und verloren!!!
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Dein Zitat:
ZitatSelbstverständlich kann ich was verkaufen was mir nicht gehört.
Deine Aussage ist unglaublich!
Könntest Du mir bitte Deinen Mercedes einmal ausleihen?
Mit Nakten Shortpositionen sind Konto Gold, und Silber Verkäufe von Banken an ihre Kunden gemeint, obwohl die Banken dieses Gold, und Silber physisch nicht besitzen.
Mit Nakten Schortpositionen sind Goldvorwärtsverkäufe von Goldproduzenten gemeint, die überhaupt nicht existieren (manipulierte Gold Reserven, Resourcen), wie z.Bsp. im Falle vom kürzlich in Konkurs gegangenen australischen Goldproduzenten Sons of Gwalia.
Gruss
ThaiGuru
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[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH II
Looking back at the Big One, in its 42nd month gold had gained more than 720% over its price at the start of the cycle. That gain is calculated using the peak price from January '80, of course. Still, even three months earlier in month 39 (October '79) gold had already gained more than 300% from its cycle lows.
And now? Well, we're presently up about 60% from our cycle low in April '01, but then we had already hit the 60% mark back in December last year; so we've actually been treading water for about nine months. Even so, a 60% gain on one's money over the last 42 months sounds pretty damned good compared with CDs paying 3--5% APR over the same period, wouldn't you agree? Not only that, but gold doesn't incur interest income tax, which widens the profitability gap even further.
Lastly, I've written before about the double-digit decline phenomenon (interested readers please see "Midas" commentary from March 14, 2003) from the late 70s market. Briefly, I discovered that whenever the price of gold declined at least 10% from any peak, it ALWAYS went on to put in new highs at least 27% greater than the bottoming low. (This double-digit decline thing only happened five times in those 42 months, and the other four price advances were SIGNIFICANTLY more than 27% above the bottoming lows.)
I also found that the shortest period between the double-digit decline bottom and the new higher peak was 32 trading days. Even the longest period required to put in a new peak price was still only 77 trading days. We haven't been nearly so fortunate, as you'll see below.
So far in our golden bull, we've experienced four double-digit declines from peak (two were just slightly less than 10%, but that's close enough for unremunerated "Midas" contributors). Under the current "managed price" environment (translation: illegal freakin' price rigging) our new peaks are happening alright, but not nearly as quickly as those of the 70s. The first one (in May '01) didn't add 27% to the bottoming price of $263.95 until nineteen months later, in December of '02 (but at least it DID keep the pattern intact.)
Coincidentally (or perhaps it was no coincidence at all), our second double-digit decline took place that same month. The bottoming low price that month was $316.45. The pattern didn't fulfill itself until exactly one year later, last December. To maintain the 27% minimum climb, we needed a price of at least $401.89. What we got was $416.25, or a 31.5% increase off the double-digit decline low a year earlier.
Two-digit decline number three occurred in February of '03. Bottoming price was $344.10, which would require a London PM fix of $437.00 to keep the pattern intact. The price of gold did actually get within about three or four bucks of that target price during intraday trading back in January and again in April this year, but the PM fix didn't reflect it. For all practical purposes, though, I still consider the pattern fulfilled. (I believe we'll likely get the OFFICIAL London fix confirmation soon!).
Finally, our fourth (and most recent) double-digit decline took place back in May, with the bottoming price of $375—a 12.23% decline from the high in April of $427.25. From $375 we need to attain a price of at least $476.25 to keep the minimum 27% advance "rule" intact. Jim Sinclair has staked his reputation on the assertion that we'll see at least $485 soon (although he missed his self-imposed deadline of August 15th), and I certainly wouldn't bet against it myself.
One last point. There are those who argue that world financial and geo-political conditions aren't nearly the same now as they were back in the late seventies. To them I would simply reply, "You're right... they're a damn site WORSE!!!"
Thanks, Bill. Hope this was informative and not too dry,
DerekOur other MIDAS Texan contributor, Dan Norcini, sent us the following last evening:
Hi Bill:
I thought I'd poke another hole in the make belief world that the denizens who comprise the FOMC apparently inhabit.
To quote from our illustrious masters in their recent FOMC release of yesterday:
"Despite the rise in energy prices, inflation and inflation expectations
have eased in recent months.This is what they unabashedly proclaimed from the rooftops yesterday. Now for the REAL WORLD. I can tell you first hand as a livestock trader that BOTH BEEF and PORK prices at the wholesale level have been breaking all kinds of records. Here's a story from Reuters that details the problems at the producer level. But remember - "inflation ... has eased in recent months".
Best,
DanHigh beef prices still plague restaurants-experts
LOS ANGELES, Sept 22 (Reuters) - U.S. beef prices are expected to remain high and strain restaurant company profits for at least the rest of this year, even though prices have retreated from their peak, experts said on Wednesday. Earlier this year, restaurant operators like Outback Steakhouse Inc. and Lone Star Steakhouse & Saloon Inc. said soaring beef costs due to limited cattle supplies were hampering margins and trimming earnings.
As prices on boxed beef moderated from their April peak, analysts for the most part put concerns about higher input costs for steakhouses and burger chains behind them.
But Tuesday's profit warning from No. 3 U.S. hamburger chain Wendy's International Inc. , which blamed higher-than-expected beef prices for some of the shortfall, shed light on the difficulties beef buyers still face. One analyst said the industry is still struggling with higher beef prices and said more restaurant company earnings warnings blaming those costs were possible.
"(Higher beef costs) is something everyone is going to see," said Crowell Weedon & Co. restaurant analyst Doug Christopher.
Another analyst, however, said companies like No. 1 hamburger chain McDonald's Corp. had been more conservative in their beef price forecasts than Wendy's.
"It's in the stocks, it's in the earnings numbers," Harris Nesbitt Gerard analyst Matt DiFrisco said.
Prices on beef used to make hamburgers are up about 24 percent from a year ago because ranchers are holding back cows from slaughter due to higher dairy and cattle prices.
A U.S. ban on imports of Canadian cattle following a case of mad cow disease last year has also tightened supply at a time of increased consumer demand for beef due to the popularity of low-carbohydrate diets.
Wendy's said on Tuesday it had been expecting beef prices to stabilize in the third quarter, but they had instead rose due to low beef production through the late summer.
One expert said demand was particularly high during the heavy grilling months of July and August, and said prices have come down since then. Other fundamentals propping up beef prices, however, are not likely to go away any time soon.
"Even though we've got somewhat weaker seasonal demand, we still have weaker supplies from Canada, beef ranchers are retaining more heffers, and we still have strong demand," said Todd Duvick, an analyst with Banc of America Securities. Companies like Wendy's should face better comparisons with year-ago beef prices in the coming months, Duvick added, but said prices would continue to be high.
"You can't repeal the laws of beef supply," said Malcolm Knapp, president of restaurant market research firm Malcolm M. Knapp Inc. "There is a real imbalance in terms of what we process and what we eat."
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Sur American Gold Corporation is an exploration company to keep any on. They keep coming through and management is superb. It is a "rapidly growing junior exploration and development company actively exploring and developing gold/silver and copper/gold projects in the Philippines. The Company’s flagship project called Batoto which is a very large low-medium grade porphyry-related gold project covering a known area of about 6 sq km which is transacted by more than 70 larger high grade veins as well as countless smaller veins, veinlets and microveinlets." The Company trades on the TSX Venture Exchange (Canada) with the symbol "SUR-V".
The HUI surged early to 217.82, then sold off as the day wore on, closing at 215.72, up 2.48. Resurgent Golden Star Resources (my top holding along with Samex Mining) led the way, finishing up 27 cents (5.92%) to $4.83. No reason for Golden Star not to regain its higher flyer status it earned late last year.
HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8
The XAU was more subdued, gaining only .26 to 96.07.
Gold was immediately taken below the pivotal $410 level at $409.40 as soon as the Access Market opened this afternoon, so for all of today’s good market action, the cabal still has gold below the area it defended all summer long.
Who knows what the bums will do tomorrow. They are petrified of gold closing above $412, so they could do anything in the short-term. What I do know is the "perfect storm" is lining up out there to take the prices of gold and silver sharply higher. Iraq is a mess. The US economy is far worse off than what Wall Street, the Fed and Washington are telling us. The price of crude oil won’t go down. Commodity prices are close to multi-decade highs. Long-term interest rates are very low in the US. The dollar stinks. Physical gold demand is stellar and building. The Gold Cartel is short gold up the wazoo and can’t get out. At the same time most of the market pundits are bearish and looking for $355 to $370 gold, not $455 to $570 gold.
Meanwhile, the senior gold shares have broken out in decisive fashion.
Put this all together and you have a recipe for colorful gold and silver fireworks!
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
There was a good deal of commotion swirling around Fannie Mae today. For the second session in a row its share price was hit hard, closing down another $3.54 to $67.15. It is hard to say if what is going on over there could develop into a significant problem for US financial markets. We have no idea what sort of derivatives problems they may have incurred. However, it is time to monitor how their paper trades in the next few days compared to US Treasuries. Some Fannie Mae material to ponder:
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Sept. 23, 2004--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it placed its 'AA-' risk-to-the government rating, subordinated debt ratings, and preferred stock credit ratings on Fannie Mae (FNM) on CreditWatch Negative due to the accounting and internal control and regulatory capital adequacy issues raised in the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's (OFHEO) "Report of Findings To-Date," special examination report, and the uncertainty these findings present to the current and previously issued financial statements. The 'AAA/A-1+' senior unsecured debt ratings are affirmed.
CreditWatch Negative means that the 'AA-' ratings will either be downgraded one notch or affirmed based on the final resolution of the SEC's informal inquiry,…
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Bill
I have extracted 2 paras below on the numbers involved in FNM's derivatives exposure compared to their earnings, from this article:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…s3y0&refer=top_world_news
....A month after Freddie Mac's June 2003 disclosure of its accounting errors, Howard said in a presentation to Fannie Mae directors that ``a stable pattern of earnings'' was a requirement if the company was to be seen as a low-risk investment, Ofheo said. Fannie Mae earned $7.91 billion in 2003, up from $3.91 billion in 1999...........................
...............Substantial Impact'
Ofheo said Fannie had $12.2 billion of such deferred losses from hedging at the end of 2003, as well as $7.2 billion of adjustments in the carrying value of balance-sheet liabilities relating to its hedges.
These losses and adjustments should be apportioned against earnings in the periods in which they occurred, Ofheo said. As a result, such a restatement might have a ``substantial impact'' on Fannie Mae's regulatory capital, Ofheo said........................
END
Best
AlanFannie Mae Takes Steps to Respond to SEC
Thursday September 23, 3:09 am ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business WriterFannie Mae Taking Steps to Respond Amid Findings of Serious Accounting Problems, SEC Inquiry
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fannie Mae is taking steps to respond to a regulator's findings of serious, pervasive accounting problems that they say cast doubt on the giant mortgage company's past earnings reports and even its financial soundness.
The findings also raised the possibility of deliberate accounting maneuvers designed to bring bigger bonuses to executives.
The price of the Fannie Mae shares dropped nearly 7 percent Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange after the company disclosed what the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight found in an eight-month investigation and the existence of an ongoing inquiry by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Experts said it was difficult to discern at this stage what the impact of Fannie Mae's situation could be. Fannie Mae, a government-sponsored company that is the second-largest U.S. financial institution behind Citigroup Inc., also is the second-biggest seller of securities behind the U.S. Treasury. It uses funds from those sales to buy trillions of dollars in home mortgages from banks and other lenders, which it says provides more liquidity and lower mortgage rates to home buyers.
If Fannie Mae were found to have violated accounting regulations, it could be ordered to decrease its financial leverage by raising fresh capital or buying fewer mortgages -- potentially making it harder for some buyers to obtain financing for their home purchases.
OFHEO, a little-known federal agency, sprang into prominence in mid-2003 after Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae's smaller competitor in the home mortgage market, disclosed that it had understated profits by some $4.5 billion for 2000-2002 in an effort to smooth earnings. Fannie Mae's accounting then came under closer scrutiny, though its leaders insisted that it had no problems of that sort.
In at least one instance, the OFHEO regulators found, it appeared that Fannie Mae management put off some accounting for expenses to a future reporting period in order to meet earnings targets that triggered bonuses for executives.
A 210-page report released late Wednesday by the agency laid out what it described as a pervasive pattern of earnings manipulation, lax internal controls and a corporate culture "that emphasized stable earnings at the expense of accurate financial disclosures."
Management at Fannie Mae "deliberately developed and adopted" inappropriate accounting policies, supported widespread violations of generally accepted accounting principles, tolerated lax internal controls and failed to properly investigate an employee's concerns about accounting, the report said. Fannie Mae's chief financial officer, Tim Howard, "failed to provide adequate oversight," it charged.
The Fannie Mae board has named a special committee of outside directors to respond to OFHEO's allegations and the preliminary inquiry by the SEC, the presiding director of the board disclosed in a public statement.
That means a crucial function effectively has been removed from Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive, Franklin Raines, and other top managers. Raines has in recent months defended the company's accounting and said that it has unfairly suffered "collateral damage" from the accounting crisis at Freddie Mac.
He said Wednesday that company management "strongly supports the leadership" shown by Ann McLaughlin Korologos, who is the presiding director of the board, and the other outside directors in responding to OFHEO's investigation and the SEC inquiry.
"We will assist them in any way we can as they carry out their duties," Raines said.
In a statement early Wednesday, Korologos said the board had hired attorney and former New Hampshire senator Warren Rudman as independent counsel to advise the new committee. Rudman's law firm will in turn hire an outside accounting firm.
"It is a 'wow' situation," said Arvind Sachdeva, an analyst for Victory Capital Management who follows the company. But, referring to OFHEO's findings, he added, "These are opinions."
Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., a longtime critic of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, called it "a sad and disturbing day for investors, homebuyers and taxpayers alike. ... Investors have been fooled, homebuyers have been cheated and taxpayers are at risk."
The OFHEO regulators found that Fannie Mae violated generally accepted accounting principles in its reckoning for transactions involving derivatives, financial instruments that it uses to hedge against interest-rate and other risk.
They also found that the company used an improper "cookie jar" reserve in accounting for some items. The SEC maintains that the practice -- setting aside artificially large cash reserves to reduce revenues, with the idea of reversing that procedure to bolster revenues in less profitable times -- gives investors an inaccurate picture of a company's financial performance.
OFHEO's report said its findings "are serious and raise doubts concerning the validity of previously reported financial results, the adequacy of regulatory capital, the quality of management supervision, and the overall safety and soundness" of Fannie Mae.
Last October, Fannie Mae disclosed a $1.2 billion accounting error for the third quarter, which it said was due to a change in accounting rules and did not affect net income.
Fannie Mae: http://www.fanniemae.com/
Freddie Mac: http://www.freddiemac.com/
Securities and Exchange Commission: http://www.sec.gov/
Report at Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight site: http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/FNMfindingstodate17sept04.pdf
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[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH
The Dow finally put together two fairly hefty losses in a row. It faltered all day long with all rallies failing. It finished near its lows of the session at 10,039, down 70. The DOG was dragged down by the DOW, but still closed up 1 at 1886.
The US economic news continues to disappoint. It is somewhat remarkable how almost every economic news item over the past two months has come in slightly weaker than consensus expectations. It has been that way across the board. The latest:
08:30 Jobless Claims for w/e 9/18 reported 350K vs. consensus 335K
Prior week revised to 336K from 333K.
* * * * *10:00 August LEI reported (0.3%) vs. consensus (0.2%)
Prior reading unrevised at (0.3%).
* * * * *NEW YORK, Sept. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board reports today that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.3% in August, following a 0.3% decrease in July and a 0.1% dip in June.
Says Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein: "The leading indicators continue to soften. There is concern about weak consumption and the pace of wage and salary increases. Consumers worry about their wages and salaries which could limit spending. Businesses worry about their ability to raise prices and to cover rising costs." –END-14:01 FOMC minutes from 8/10 meeting indicate policy makers expected "significant cumulative" rate hikes needed to meet goals
Fed officials believes that the economy was poised to grow stronger ahead, and that the softness at the time would be short-lived.
* * * * *So far we have a case of the Fed speaking on a different planet.
Will the White House use Ivan as an excuse to dump oil onto the market ahead of the coming elections?
10:14 Follow-up: White House indicates Hurricane Ivan has disrupted oil supplies
This reason is being supplied as the catalyst for decision to consider loan of SPR oil to refiners. Oil continues to move lower; Nov. WTI crude quoted at $47.70 last.
* * * * *Good luck on this score:
Fed wouldn't let budget gap fuel inflation-Gramlich
ANN ARBOR, Mich., Sept 23 (Reuters) -
Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Gramlich said on Thursday that credible monetary policies can prevent large government budget gaps from fueling inflation, and expressed confidence the U.S. central bank would not allow this to happen.
Asked following a speech if large government borrowing needs could fuel price increases, Gramlich said, "It could if you don't have a credible central bank."
"I think we (the Fed) have enough freedom of action that even if deficits are large we can prevent that from becoming inflationary," he said, adding that inflation related to government borrowing in other countries often reflects a lack of central bank independence from the government.
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What continues to amuse me is how GATA’s mainstream critics continue to disparage us, and have done so for more than a decade, by describing us as "conspiracy" nuts. What is so strange is that conspiracies are a way of life on Wall Street and in the business world in general. As I have noted in this column since GATA was formed, they are a dime a dozen. Here is another one:
Ex-Computer Associates CEO Kumar Indicted
http://story.news.yahoo.com/ne…te/computer_associates_14
Prosecutors referred to one practice as the "35-day month" because company accountants would extend the booking of revenues in the final month of a fiscal quarter days beyond the true end of the month.
"In many ways, this scheme is emblematic of the schemes of the late 1990s, motivated by the overwhelming desire to create the illusion of success," Comey said.
Three former executives admitted in April that they fraudulently recorded hundreds of millions of dollars worth of contracts in a conspiracy to inflate quarterly earnings. They entered guilty pleas under cooperation agreements that prosecutors called an important move toward indicting other high-ranking company executives.
Even their attorney was dirty!!
Also Wednesday, the company's former general counsel, Steven Woghin, pleaded guilty in federal court to conspiracy to commit securities fraud and obstruction of justice.
"Your honor, I am ashamed to be standing here today," he said. "It is entirely inconsistent with my behavior through a 30-year legal career."
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Not a week goes by without one conspiracy scandal reported after another.
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:
I will be traveling to my daughter's wedding in California until next Thursday so there won't be any commentary until then.
The Fed added $10 Billion in temps and $.4 Billion in potent permanent open market operations today September 23rd 2004, an action that dropped the repo pool to $51.014Billion. However, the INTRADAY pool level is at $64.514 Billion and that is powerful fuel to juice the markets. The repo pool's 30-day moving average is still in a parabolic trajectory upward, while the DOW's ma is barely hanging on. The DOW would be nicely up if the Fed didn't have to deal with their other disasters.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/repos0923.gif]
Oil continues to wreck the Fed's market-controlling plans with Gulf of Mexico production significantly down from hurricane damage, ULCC tanker single-hull retirements looming early next year with higher lease rates for the double-hulled transports and the deteriorating Middle Eastern mess which has effectively reduced overall supply of desirable light sweet crude. Yesterday Brent North Sea crude hit $44.93/bbl. Here is a useful link to that chart data :
http://www.oilnergy.com/hpix/1obrentd.gif
Doubtless, the rise in Fed repo levels is related to the Fed's primary dealer's efforts to suppress oil prices and I look forward to receiving the next BIS derivatives release to see just how much more has been added to the sea of paper oil derivatives.
Bitter Medicine
The reality of government intervention is a bitter pill for TA specialists who cling to the dogma of their Fibonacci numbers, double tops and bow ties. This stuff is fine in simplistic investment areas but fails miserably in important, Nation-threatening strategic commodities and financial indexes where government constitutes a third party.
This fact was proven for silver and gold when nations joined together in 1878 to create the gold standard. Today's TA gurus would have you believe that never occurred. Indeed, these gurus never chart this period because they couldn't use Elliot Wave techniques to point out the "Fifth Wave" in the middle of a fixed regime. The TA guys imagine that governments didn't act to protect their vital interests by fixing the gold and silver price.
Well, they did act and they ARE again acting today. Only this time around governments are a bit more subtle and manage to hoodwink the majority of TA specialists who keep losing when the markets make unexplained hairpin turns or stay in odd conditions too long. TA keeps getting hosed because its main thesis is simply wrong. There are more than two parties present, one of which doesn't care about losses.
Bitter Medicine
This staunch refusal to accept the obvious is similar to the refusal of leading physicians to accept the germ theory of infection in the nineteenth century. They couldn't see the putative microbes so to them they didn't exist. Whole medical schools refused to accept the news that small germs caused lethal infections. It was only well after the improvements to optical microscopes (mainly through the use of fluorite as an optical element [Zeiss's "Glass X"]) that the younger members of the profession grudgingly accepted the idea. The older ones never capitulated, they just faded away.
So we arrive today with smart TA people doing dumb things and dragging a load of innocent investors down with them.
Those who assert there's no intervention must explain how 4 standard deviation preemptive selling events pop up EXACTLY 6 months prior to 2,600 tonne gold deliveries in the UK according to Her Majesty's Customs records (Thanks to James Turk's work). They must explain how these repeated events would happen only once by chance in 1,538 years of COMEX trading. They must explain why leading statistics professors have concluded intervention is real (Clawar). And they must explain how it was that the $30 Trillion interest rate derivatives monster at JPMorgan began within weeks of the cartels' successful breakage of gold's 200-day moving average. But the TA guys can't do this because they will get eviscerated by facts.
Ma tells the tale
The moving averages, when properly constructed, show the Fed's interventional plan and their progress. Yesterday, I linked the Ten-Year Yield proprietary moving average (pma) and it shows long stretches of flat intervals with market wrenching hairpin turns. IF one turns away from Wall Street dogma for a moment, they MAY gain some perspective by accepting that these patterns are man-made (Fed-made to be exact). Nature doesn't deliver straight lines and neither do freely traded, random markets. Knowing this forearms traders and investors and greatly adds to their confidence level.
MikeMore from Mike:
Hi Bill:
After examining my various metrics at this afternoon's fixings, I remain confident (But cautious) that the current rising gold move will be safely tradable only through Oct 1rst. After that the Fed has set up a big coincidence in my numbers and I don't like Fed coincidences. However, their Washington Agreement attack will be brief.
How to proceed
In my view, cautious traders can exit the rising gold wave on October 1rst and plan to re-enter say by Thursday October 7th, which I think may be a reaction low point.
Bullion positions should remain intact while any HUI or XAU profits should be taken on Oct 1 at the close. SAMEX is excluded from any current profit taking as their projects are nearing drill core data developments.
Why the WA attack will be brief
The Fed has turned the MCDI pma metric down after a long stretch of up phase and this signals that they are retreating downward in a formal maneuver and we should expect that the DIVG AND gold will enter a rising phase after this attack because the Fed cannot muster enough metal to sustain a falling dollar AND deliver falling gold.
MikeWell, we have two gurus here going in opposite directions. Mahendra is super bullish. Mike says the bad guys have something up their sleeves in early October and are going to attack. This sure will be interesting to see how this plays out. Both can’t be right, or can they?
Mike talks about the fallacy of technical analysis in rigged markets. Here is a perfect example of a group of market technicians, who know absolutely nothing about the real gold market, using their technical work to forecast the future price of gold. Boy, do I love to see this sort of commentary out there:
Bearish Analysts See Gold Price Back at $370/oz
Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:12 AM ET
LONDON (Reuters) - Gold is more likely to turn tail and break back down to $370 an ounce than revisit 15-year highs before the year-end, technical analysts said on Thursday.
Spot gold peaked in January at $430.50 an ounce -- its highest since December 1988. It came tantalizingly close to that level again in April, but failed and slumped to a low of $371 an ounce in May.
It has since been chopping around in a $393-419 trading range, leading some of the more bearish to proclaim its three-year bull trend is over.
Technical analysts, who study charts of historical price patterns, said that in the short-term gold would remain trapped within those parameters, possibly attempting a modest move higher.
The metal was quoted at $407.80/408.50 at 1141 GMT (7:41 a.m. GMT) on Thursday, up from New York's previous $406.75/407.50.
"For now it is in a choppy range with a slight near term bias to the upside, but we'd be looking to sell in to that strength," said Robin Wilkin, JP Morgan's foreign exchange and commodities technical analyst.
Independent analyst Cliff Green said the implications of gold's recent sideways activity were that it was topping out.
"That's why I would prefer to sell the rallies within that range rather than buying the dips. I just think it is a deteriorating picture that will eventually resolve itself by a big break to the downside," he said. Shorter term, gold's outlook was more positive with analysts looking for a move back up toward August's breakout at $414.
"Right now it looks like we're rolling the dice to break above $410 again," said Gerry Celaya, chief strategist at UK-based Redtower Research.
"If that happens it will be looking to the top of the channel around $418/419, but we're not that bullish and think gold will stop before there between $410 and $413," he said.
All analysts said a break below support at $393/95 would open the floodgates for a push back down to May's low of $371 and they expected this before the end of the year.
"Eventually, I could even see us going back toward $350," Green said. "Longer term, I am quite negative."
-END-
This past week has been a contrarian’s dream for our camp. We have seen nothing but gold bearish commentary from all over the world.
Derek Van Artsdalen, a gold bull, from San Antonio:
Hi Bill,
As you know, I've been maintaining a pretty extensive spreadsheet over the past couple of years. It's loaded with data tracking the present gold market and comparing it with the infamous mother of all gold markets from the late 70s. It's been a good half-year or so since I took a look at how our current market is doing relative to the Big One back then. Here's what I found...
[Note: although gold remained in a strong bull mode for several years into the mid-eighties, for our purposes here we'll just consider what happened through January 1980, when things culminated with the blowoff top around $850 per ounce.]
From the Great Bull's early beginnings in August '76 with the cycle low of $103.50 (all prices London PM fix) to the parabolic explosion in January '80, the total time elapsed was 42 months. Coincidentally, if you count back to our current market's inception in April '01 with the cycle low of $255.95, we're now in exactly the 42nd month of our own golden bull. Let's see how things are stacking up against the mother of all golden bulls over which Jimmy Carter & Company presided with their 20% interest rate (JC's apparently a far greater humanitarian than politician)...
First, the average monthly fluctuation in the gold price during those 42 months was 8.04%, which is a pretty big swing. Putting that in perspective, such a violent spread these days could take the current price of gold back to $375 or as high as $440. In comparison, our current average monthly fluctuation to date has been only 5.25%. My own feeling is that we should prepare for more, not less, price volatility than we've been used to so far. Bear in mind, though, that in a bull market dramatic price volatility implies much HIGHER prices in the long run.
Next, I find it interesting that the average peak-to-peak monthly gain in the gold price back then (excluding the last three months, which were real barn burners and would really skew the stats) was just over 3%, or 36% per annum (not compounded). To date, our own average peak-to-peak monthly gain in the price of gold has been a far tamer 1.15%, or 13.8% (again, not compounded). Still pretty impressive, however, considering that the prime rate has been at 40+ year lows and most money market funds have been paying less than 2%. Even long-term CDs have generally averaged less than 5%. That's beginning to change, of course, but you get the idea...
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[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
The John Brimelow Report
Chartist M. Pring call breakout
Thursday, September 23, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.47, PM $8.47, with world gold at $407 and $408. AM is ample for legal imports. PM is so high as to suggest a transcription error, especially as the other Indian cities carried by Reuters appear marginal for legal imports. Barclays Capital’s gold analyst, Kamal Naqvi – himself an Indian – notes today:
"The Indian jewellery buying 'season' has now started in earnest with the festival of Dussehra in early October and then Diwali in early November. So far demand is reported to be good..."
TOCOM was closed today, so the question of how much more selling is possible from the Japanese "General Public" was untested. It appears they will find prices steeply higher, especially in yen, this evening.
NY yesterday traded 44,250 lots with open interest slipping 634 lots. Standard London noted:
"The weaker tone continued in New York as the Funds sold on the COMEX, driving the spot price to a low of $404.20, however good physical buying stemmed the decline and a sharp increase in crude oil…reversed gold’s fortunes."
Early NY yesterday in fact saw a serious effort to break gold down: half the day’s estimated volume traded in the first 90 minutes of the day.
Today there have been two distinct efforts to rally gold; early in the European day, and more significantly, in the NY morning. At 10-10 am NY time TheBullionDesk.com put out a note saying:
"SORRY if you find us a little slow…TheBullionDesk is experiencing unprecedented volumes of traffic"(JB emphasis). These kinds of notes have flagged interesting experiences in the gold market in the past.
Consequently it is interesting to see that the long term momentum chartist Martin Pring last night has, (reluctantly), gone positive on gold:
"The Gold Bugs Gold Share Index has managed to break to the upside, and the KST (a measure of momentum – JB) for the gold price itself is right at its moving average, suggesting the gold asset markets are poised for an upside breakout. Only the resistance
trendline in Chart 6 stands in the way. If we see a decisive close above the trendline this would suggest that the rally has legs and that the gold price is headed significantly higher."
Martin tells me the trendline in question was at $408.80 spot - $2 below today’s close.
JB
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[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
September 23 - Gold $410.50 up $3.50– Silver $6.44 up 10 cents
Gold And Silver Poised For Fireworks!
ZitatI have learned, that if one advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life he has imagined, he will meet with a success unexpected in common hours...Henry David Thoreau
ZitatGO GATA!!!
A very positive day for our team. Gold came in slightly higher following dollar weakness and then rose much further as the dollar remained steady. As you know by now based on past MIDAS commentaries, clearing and closing above $412 is key. Wouldn’t you know $412 was the exact high tick on today’s rally. Buying was resolutely consistent all session long until the close when Dresdner Bank (Oh mein Gott das ist ja der Arbeitgeber vom Goldanalysten Wolfgang in der FTD,TG) showed up on the sell side to knock gold back.
The news from the cash market is superb. Buyers are gobbling bullion up. Evidence of this was the PM London Fix coming in at $411.50.
Heard from our London silver source today as well as our STALKER source, who has returned from an exhaustive 17-day trip to the Far East. Here is the latest:
*Our silver man is as bullish as ever, looking for $8+ silver in the next couple of months. He reaffirmed a very tight silver market in Europe and remarked his number one buyers are the Saudis with Canadians coming in second. Guess the Canadians are buying silver outside of their own tax jurisdictions.
*On a separate note, our US STALKER source reports of increased buying of bullion for pension funds by business professionals (such as lawyers). They are doing so for the usual reasons such as diversification. What is important is that gold is going on the radar screen of more and more investors out there.
*The STALKER and the mini-stalkers began their $1.5 billion worth of buying over a week ago. It will be ongoing and they are buying in three time zones to take advantage of price dips wherever they occur. Those zones are Australia, Europe and the US. One of the mini-stalkers dropped out.
*Of most importance is our STALKER source believes there is a good deal more buying to come after the $1.5 billion order is completed. He has strong reasons to believe the Chinese are going to be in the world market for a SUSTAINED period of time to supply their new gold market exchanges and will be using him as one of their buying agents.
We are only talking here about one significant buying group. When you put just this buying on top of what we know from John Brimelow’s invaluable input about the Indians, you can see why The Gold Cartel has its hands full with their continuing price suppression scheme. The physical market is their Achilles Heel. They can throw all the derivatives they want at the market, which can subdue to the gold price over the short-term. However, when buyers demand the physical, they must deliver. Paper does them no good when this happens in size.
There is a Comex option expiry on Monday. You know the bad guys are going to do all they can to keep gold in check until then, if they can.
The gold open interest was little changed at 255,452, down 634 contracts. Silver the same, up 107 contracts at 82,434.
DEC gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4DEC silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C4This is an FYI on an email I received on Tuesday from a very informed European Café source:
Bill
My source in the European bank said to me today (before the PM rise) that there are strong rumors in the bank’s circles about an event in the weekend that will influence positively the commodities markets. He and his sources don’t know what it is and I wouldn’t, at that stage, give it much credence. The rise today in the shares, the gold and the silver might add some weight to these rumors.
Did you hear anything?
Thanks***
The dollar closed down .06 at 88.62, while the euro rose .08 to 122.61. The dollar rallied for some strange reason after the August Fed minutes were released at 2 EDT. All the minutes revealed was the Fed has been wrong so far about their economic assessments.
The gold fundamentals seem to get better and better on a weekly basis. Surging crude oil has to have wealthy Arabs in a salivating mood to buy bullion. Down around 75 cents this morning, crude oil turned right around to finish at $48.46, up 11 cents per barrel.
The CRB rose again, climbing .57 to 280.06, its second highest close of the move and close to its highest close in a zillion years.
CRB monthly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/M -
Wie man unschwer erkennen kann, "arbeitet "das Gold Kartell heute wieder einmal mehr auch nachts!
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http://80.239.136.196/news/columns/view.m?news_id=967759
GOLDINVEST.de,
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Vier Newmont-Mitarbeiter in Indonesien verhaftet
16:15 23.09.04
Vier Newmont-Mitarbeiter in Indonesien verhaftet
Vier Mitarbeiter von Newmont Mining Corp. (NMC.TO), darunter Bill Long,
General Manager der Minahasa Mine in Indonesien, wurden heute überraschend
verhaftet. Der Verhaftung waren zunehmende Spannungen mit der lokalen
Bevölkerung rund um die Minahasa Mine vorausgegangen. Newmont wird
vorgeworfen, die Minahasa Mine habe die nahe gelegene Buyat Bay mit Arsen
und Quecksilber verschmutzt. Ersten Meldungen zufolge hat die Regierung
Untersuchungen vornehmen lassen, die im Gegensatz zu den firmeneigenen
Aussagen hochgradige Verschmutzung gefunden haben.Im Gebiet von Minahasa
waren über Jahre hinweg kleine Minenbetreiber (artisanal mining) tätig, die
üblicherweise Quecksilber zur Abscheidung von Gold verwenden. Die
Verschmutzung dürfte daher ursächlich nicht auf Newmont zurückgehen.
Vielmehr scheint die Gesellschaft das Opfer einer öffentlichen Kampagne zu
sein, um nach der Schließung der Mine im August 2004 Schadensersatz
herauszuholen. Nichts desto trotz befindet sich die Gesellschaft in einer
schwierigen Position, da es unbestritten Gesundheitsschäden in Folge von
Verschmutzung gibt und Newmont der naheliegende Sündenbock ist. Das
kanadische Brokerhaus Nesbitt Burns wertet den Vorfall aber insgesamt nur
als "slighty negative" und hält an seinem Urteil "Market perform" fest.Die New York Times hatte jüngst kritisch über das Minahasa Projekt und das
möglicherweise umweltschädliche Verhalten von Newmont berichtet. Derzeit
betreiben drei umliegende Gemeinden eine Schadensersatzklage über US$ 543
Millionen. David Baker, Vice President von Newmont, hatte den Behauptungen
widersprochen. Die Arbeit in Minahasa habe die Bevölkerung zu keinem
Zeitpunkt gefährdet.Redaktion GOLDINVEST.de daily
......................................info@goldinvest.de
http://www.goldinvest.deHinweis: ARIVA.DE veröffentlicht in dieser Rubrik Analysen, Kolumnen und Nachrichten aus verschiedenen Quellen. Verantwortlich für den Inhalt ist allein der jeweilige Autor.
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http://www.instock.de/Nachrichten/10146826.html
Chartanalyse: Gold "kaufen"
Chartanalyse Gold (Stand: 22.09.2004)
erstellt durch Chart und Rat:
Abgesehen von mehreren leichten Übertreibungsphasen nach oben bewegt sich der Gold Preis wieder in einem langfristigen intakten Aufwärtstrendkanal. Diese Kursentwicklung bestätigt den nach wie vor aussichtsreichen Chartverlauf. Aus diesem Grund können die Positionen auf einen steigenden Gold-Preis weiterhin in Verbindung mit der Indikatorenanalyse aufgebaut werden. Erst bei einem erneuten Bruch des Aufwärtstrendkanals nach unten sollten Zukäufe zurückgestellt werden.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://mdb.instock.de/files/2243.png]Technische Indikatorenanalyse
Der Abstand zur Tage-Linie ist im positiven Bereich gering d.h. der Kursverlauf bewegt sich innerhalb der üblichen Schwankungsbreite.
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Der TBI besitzt einen sich leicht verstärkenden positiven Trend. Der kurzfristige GD liegt zur Zeit oberhalb des langfristigen GD.
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Der RSI befindet sich im neutralen Bereich d.h. es liegt weder eine Übertreibungsphase nach oben wie nach unten vor.
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Die Slow-Stochastik ist im neutralen Bereich steigend d.h. die Schlußkurse liegen zur Zeit näher am Tageshoch als am Tagestief.
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http://www.finanznachrichten.d…04-09/artikel-3880879.asp
23.09.2004 18:47:
Amex Gold Bugs Index zieht nach oben raus
Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) - Kursstand: 216,69 Punkte (+1,61%)
Aktueller Tageschart seit 03.2004 (1 Kerze = 1 Tag)
Diagnose: Der Gold Bugs Index brach im April aus dem langfristigen Aufwärtstrend nach unten aus und korrigierte den Anstieg bis in den Bereich des Retracement- Supports bei 173,3 Punkten. Nach einem weiteren Test dieser Unterstützung im Juli konnte sich der Kurs deutlich erholen, scheiterte aber zunächst am starken Widerstand bei 207075 Punkten. Mit dem Ausbruch aus der kurzfristigen Konsolidierung wird der Widerstand, ebenso die mittelfristige Abwärtstrendlinie, nach oben durchbrochen. Weiteren Widerstand bildet der Bereich 240,81 Punkte.
Prognose: Der Ausbruch aus dem mittelfristigen Abwärtstrend wird signifikant. Kann dieses Niveau auch auf Wochenschlussbasis gehalten werden ist ein neues Kaufsignal bis zunächst 240,81 Punkte generiert. Ein Pullback in den Bereich 207,75 Punkte muss zunächst noch einkalkuliert werden, darunter sollte der Kurs jetzt nicht mehr nachhaltig zurück fallen.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://godmode-charts.de/chart/charts2003/ccc/17210.gif]Chart erstellt mit Qcharts
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http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040923/cnth005_1.html
Press Release Source: Atlas Mining Company
Atlas Mining Announces Renewal of Contract With Lintech International
Thursday September 23, 8:31 am ET
Traditional Clay Markets Reaming the Focus of the New ContractOSBURN, Idaho, Sept. 23 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Atlas Mining Company (OTC Bulletin Board: ALMI - News), a rapidly growing natural resource and mining company, announced today that the company recently renewed its distributor agreement with Lintech International, of Macon, GA. In the agreement, Lintech will be the lead distributor of all halloysite clay products for Atlas with the exception of microtubular-related uses. The renewal extends an agreement between the two companies that had been in place for three years.
William Jacobson, CEO of Atlas Mining said, ''Tom Hinson and the entire team at Lintech have been very supportive of our efforts since the beginning. I am very honored to have an association with such a reputable group, and I know they will be very instrumental in bringing buyers, as well as servicing current clients in need of halloysite.''
Lintech International is a well-established industrial minerals distribution company that warehouses, markets, and distributes various industrial minerals throughout the world. The agreement with Lintech brings Atlas Mining qualified marketing professionals to help market and distribute its halloysite product to end users. Lintech is ISO 9002 certified with a fulltime marketing and distribution staff of 35 employees.
''We will be storing some of our product at their facility in Macon, Georgia,'' said Jacobson, referring to Lintech's 30,000 square foot warehouse and office facility. Lintech sells and distributes over $20 million of industrial products on an annual basis, and maintains seven warehouses throughout the United States.
Tom Hinson, President of Lintech International said, ''We have been working with Atlas for several years to get to this point. We have done extensive market research on the product and feel very confident that the demand is there.''
Recently, both Jacobson and Hinson were onsite at the Dragon Mine, Atlas Mining's halloysite clay property in Juab County, Utah. ''It was great to be able to see the progress the company has made over the summer,'' commented Hinson. ''We're anxious to begin receiving their very high quality finished product.''
Jacobson continued, ''Our relationship with Lintech, and with Tom in particular, has been excellent. They have been there for us, sending our finished samples out to buyers, and representing us in a most professional and expert manner. Tom and I both saw the overall value in renewing this distributor agreement and we got it done with what felt like very little effort,'' concluded Jacobson.
About Atlas Mining Company
Atlas Mining Company is a diversified natural resource company with its primary focus on the development of the Dragon Mine in Juab County, Utah, the only known commercial source of halloysite clay outside of New Zealand. The unique purity and quality of the Dragon mine halloysite is unmatched anywhere in the world and has spawned considerable research into new and exciting applications for this product. Atlas also holds mining and timber interests in Northern Idaho, and operates an underground mining contracting business. Atlas stock trades on the OTC Bulletin Board under the symbol "ALMI." More information about Atlas Mining Company can be found at
Safe Harbor Statement
As a cautionary note to investors, certain matters discussed in this press release may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such matters involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including the following: changes in economic conditions; general competitive factors; the Company's ability to execute its business model and strategic plans; and the risks described from time to time in the Company's SEC fimlings.
For more information, please contact:
John Roskelley, President,
First Global Media
Tel: +1-480-902-3110--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Atlas Mining Company -
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http://aktuell.focus.msn.de/hp…e/newsausgabe.htm?id=6850
Zinsängste
Goldpreis klettert und klettert
[Blockierte Grafik: http://a.relaunch.focus.de/img…rc_Ax175,210x175+15+0.jpg]Wieder gefragt: In unsicheren Zeiten horten Anleger Gold
23.09.04
Gold ist am Donnerstag im europäischen Handel stetig geklettert und hat gegen Handelsschluss die Marke von 410 Dollar geknackt.
Der schwächere Dollar und die Ölpreisrally begünstigten Goldkäufe, sagten Händler. Zum Handelsschluss kostete die Feinunze Gold 411,15/411,90 Dollar nach 405,05/405,80 Dollar am Vorabend. Das zweite Fixing in London erfolgte bei 411,50 nach 408,50 Dollar am Morgen und 405,35 Dollar am Mittwochnachmittag.
Händler zogen als Begründung für den Anstieg des Goldpreises weiterhin die Erhöhung der US-Leitzinsen am Dienstag heran. Obwohl auch der nächste Zinsschritt als ausgemacht gelte, erscheine eine darauf folgende weitere Verschärfung der US-Zinspolitik nach den letzten Aussagen der Fed nun unwahrscheinlicher. Die Aussetzung eines oder mehrerer Zinsschritte würde das gelbe Metall für Investoren attraktiver machen.
Nachdem die psychologisch wichtige Hürde von 410 Dollar durchbrochen sei, könnte Gold in der Spitze sogar bis 418/419 Dollar steigen. Wahrscheinlicher sei jedoch, dass der Anstieg zwischen 410 und 413 Dollar ins Stocken gerate, sagte ein Gold-Analyst.
Eine Schweizer Grossbank gab den Gold-Kilopreis mit 16 500/16 750 nach 16 355/16 605 Franken am Vorabend an.
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http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,319564,00.html
23. September 2004
KOSTENSCHUB
Bush-Vorhaben treibt Ölpreis in die Höhe
Die Ölpreise haben sich am Abend sowohl in London als auch New York wieder ihrem Allzeithoch genähert. Ein Grund dafür ist die Überlegung der Bush-Regierung, Teile der Ölreserve des Landes zu "verleihen".
New York - In New York verteuerte sich ein Barrel (159 Liter) der Sorte Light Sweet Crude zur Lieferung im November an der New Yorker Terminbörse Nymex bis 19.30 Uhr um 0,93 Prozent auf 48,80 Dollar. Zuvor war der Future bis auf 49 Dollar gestiegen, nachdem er im frühen Handel noch bis auf 47,50 Dollar gefallen war. In London stieg der Preis für ein Barrel der Nordseesorte Brent zur Lieferung im November um 1,16 Prozent auf 45,45 Dollar, nachdem er sich am Vormittag noch bis auf 44,35 Dollar verbilligt hatte.
Marktteilnehmer führten die Kursgewinne auf die mögliche Freigabe von Teilen der strategischen Ölreserve zurück. "Dies wäre eine Wende in der Politik von Präsident Georg W. Bush", sagte ein Händler. Dies könnte der Markt als Zeichen der Angst vor einem zu geringen Ölangebot auffassen. Außerdem hätte dieser Schritt wohl eher kurzfristige Wirkung.
Zuvor hatte ein Regierungssprecher gesagt, dass das Energieministerium erwägt, den vom Hurrikan "Ivan" betroffenen Raffinerien an der Golfküste unter Umständen mit Öl aus den strategischen Reserven auszuhelfen. Dies würde direkt vom Energieministerium bekannt gegeben werden. Die strategische Reserve sei geschaffen worden, um das Ölangebot vor physischen Störungen zu schützen.
© SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004
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http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/349197.htm
Sino Gold gets approval for Jinfeng
By: Geoff Candy
Posted: '23-SEP-04 13:19' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
Sino Gold, the Chinese gold mine listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, has received approval from the Guizhou Province’s Environmental Protection Bureau, for its Jinfeng Project.
This is good news for China’s largest foreign gold producer because no further environmental approvals are required for the start of a project that is believed to be the largest undeveloped known gold resource in China.
Following this approval the company has submitted the formal Land Use Rights that are required for the project. The company is confident that they will receive the rights and plan to start development of the project early in 2005.
Gold production is scheduled to begin in 2006 and mining is expected to last for 12 years, initially as an open-cut operation and followed by underground mining expected to at an annual ore production rate of 1.2 million tons.
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http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1095957023.php
International Forecaster September, 2004 (#4
Gold, Silver, Economy + More
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By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster
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http://news.goldseek.com/Dani/1095959227.php
Gold objective $600
By: Chaize Thomas, Dani 2989, Dani 2989
Here is a technical analysis simplified at most to give a clear reading of the possible evolution of the price of the ounce of gold. It is necessary to watch on the graph the previous summit which is the third point of an old resistance. The question is to know or goes price of the ounce of gold and what speed?I. Objective 600$.
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There is an important resistance in the zone $405-430. This old resistance of 15 years opens the door of 600 dollars. But it is going to need a hard battle to the gold-diggers to break this Ligne Maginot.
Most low is $255 and the resistance in the zone of $430, 430-255 = $175, 430+175 = $600. And so the following objective is 600 dollars.
But it is difficult to know the time when is going to set the break of this resistance.
Once this resistance there are two scenarios of evolution of possible price.II. Linear progress.
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If the progress of the prices of the ounce keeps the same growth rate of the price of the gold as previous years, are needed 5 - 6 years to reach the objective of 600 dollars. The growth of the gold in a linear shape which follows a right-hand side of tendency since the low point to 255 dollars.
III. Parabolic progress.
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There is the second possible scenario, the increase takes a shape parabolic as in the 1980s. With this scenario 600 dollars will be reached much more quickly. Big maximum is enough of two years for reaching the objective of 600 dollars.
IIt is difficult to know at which moment the resistance in the zone of 430 dollars be going to break. But it seems very likely that then the second objective will be in the zone of 600 dollars. If we had credit note also the necessary time to reach this objectives there are two possible scenarios. The first one is that of the continuance and the second of the acceleration.
To give my opinion in a more net way, I would say that the ounce is going to break its resistance and to reach 600 dollars, but that the factor time and very difficult to estimate. That is why I think that it is wise to place it on this long-term sector and to avoid the goings there and back short term. Why to take short-term risks while this market offers stratospheric perspectives long term.
Be careful, this is only a personal opinion.
Chaize Thomas
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http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040923/235421_1.html
Press Release Source: Bema Gold Corporation
Bema Gold Corporation: Kupol Project Update
Thursday September 23, 11:40 am ET
Exploration and Feasibility Drill ResultsVANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 23, 2004--Bema Gold Corporation (AMEX: BGO - News; TSX: BGO - News; AIM: BAU) is pleased to announce further drilling results from the 2004 Kupol Project exploration and feasibility drilling program.
The highlights of the recent drilling program are: the extension of high grade mineralization 250 metres to the North at depth; the discovery of a new wide high grade vein in the recently discovered multiple veins in the North Zone; the discovery of a new high grade sub parallel or offset vein in the South; the discovery of a new high grade ore shoot in the Central Zone; and ongoing detail drilling in the Big Bend Zone continues to demonstrate strong continuity of the high grade zone.North Zone
A total of 38 holes totalling 13,800 metres have been completed in the North Zone. Exploration drilling in the North Zone has extended high grade mineralization a further 250 metres to the North at depth. (See table for holes 333 and 361) Infill drill hole 267 discovered a new wide high grade vein with an approximate true width of 20 metres vein averaging 31.3 g/t gold and 330.3 g/t silver. In addition, a number of holes (holes 268, 281, and 286 listed below) intersected multiple veins including the new wide vein.
weiter.....
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Zitat
"......es gibt kein Gesetz auf dieser Welt das Goldvorwärtsverkäufe oder Shortpositionen in Gold verbietet."
Absolut richtig!
Doch es gibt Gesetze die nakte Gold Shortverkäufe verbieten!
Genau darum geht es hier, bei dieser Gold Preis Manipulation.
Mehrere Gold Bullion Banken, Gold Produzenten, Zentralbanken, und die FED verkaufen Gold, das entweder überhaupt nicht nicht physisch vorhanden ist, oder noch viel schlimmer, den Gold Verkäufern nicht einmal gehört.
Das ist illegal!
Darum werden wir Gold Bugs schlussendlich mit Sicherheit NICHT scheitern!
Sobald die Oeffentlichkeit den Betrug erkannt hat, oder den Gold Preis Manipulateuren das physische Gold ausgeht, werden die Goldpreise massiv steigen!!
Gruss
Thaiguru
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http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH
Yesterday the MIDAS focus was Barrick. What fun it was to spot this in the October 5, 2000 MIDAS:
"Keep this in mind for future reference: JP Morgan and Barrick, JP Morgan and Barrick!!!"
Here we are four years later and yep, GATA called it, Morgan and Barrick are in New Orleans Federal Court defending themselves against Blanchard Coin for manipulation of the gold price.
Sadly, almost embarrassingly for them, it is time Newmont get their just due. Take a gander at what Newmont sent to St. Louis’ savvy Wistar Holt
From: Jennifer.VanDinter@Newmont.com
Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2004 5:18 PM
To: wholt@holtshapard.com
Subject: Wistar Holt @ Holt & Shapard Capital ManagementMr. Holt,
We apologize for the delay in responding to your request for information. We are aware of the report issued by Sprott Asset Management earlier this year. It is Newmont’s policy not to comment on the viewpoints of any individual firms, including Sprott. If you are seeking an objective analysis of the report from a respected market commentator, we would suggest the September 14, 2004 issue of The Gartman Letter.
For further clarification, Newmont’s core business is gold mining. As you are probably aware, Newmont has steadfastly maintained a non-hedging philosophy with respect to gold because we believe that investors want maximum exposure to the gold price. We are not affiliated with, and have no control over, the bullion or central banks. Ultimately, we do not believe that any market can be controlled over an extended period of time. Finally, we do not intend to discuss this report with our shareholders, although any matters that would require shareholder approval will be included in the next proxy statement, which will be filed with the SEC and mailed to shareholders in spring 2005.
If you have any additional questions, please send us an e-mail or call us at 1-800-810-6463. Thank you for your interest in Newmont.
Sincerely,
Newmont Investor RelationsObjective analysis of respected commentator GARTMAN, whose acknowledged clients are Barrick Gold and the bullion banks in The Gold Gartel????!!!!????!!!! That is like asking a Republican campaign strategist what he thinks of the Democrats views.
Wistar responds:
From: Wistar Holt [mailto:wholt@holtshapard.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2004 9:55 AM
To: 'Jennifer.VanDinter@Newmont.com'
Subject: RE: Wistar Holt @ Holt & Shapard Capital ManagementWell Ms. VanDinter,
You certainly "tipped your hand" by suggesting I review the Gartman Letter, referring to it as "objective." To put it mildly, you are out to lunch! That report like a few other rebuttals is weak, unsubstantiated, and very biased. Now, let me tell you how I really feel about this manipulation issue.It is frustrating to my clients and me to witness such blatant suppression of gold and silver. Ultimately, I would like to see the mining industry uniformly pursue legal actions against the bullion banks, minimizing the time and expense by utilizing much of the documentation provided by GATA, Sprott, Blanchard, and others. Perhaps the mere filing of a collective class action suit would be enough to force them to back away from their secretive, manipulative acts. According to the S.E.C., manipulation of markets is clearly illegal. Lately, the price action of gold and silver leads me to believe (after 25 years of market experience) that J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, et al are committing acts of crime in the market on a daily basis. Whether it be the "capping" of gold at benchmark levels like $410, or the sudden sharp, inexplicable $7 decline following hours or days of price stability whereby the seller ironically shows no interest in maximizing the selling price, or the sudden sharp multi-point decline in the HUI index in the last few minutes of trading suspiciously vindicated by a sharp decline in the gold price overnight or the next morning, or the almost "automatic" sharp decline at the opening of COMEX trading, or the limited $6-8 upside "rule" on the most bullish of days far exceeded by the downside on declining days; this doesn’t add up amidst the extremely bullish fundamentals like rising deficits, soaring oil, escalating debt, depleting savings, unlimited fiat paper/money supply, and a weak dollar.
Ms. VanDinter, as mentioned above, I happen to strongly disagree with your point that, "we (Newmont) have no control over the bullion or central banks. Personally, I believe you have more control than Blanchard and Company, Inc. Take a look at what they are doing about it; a fresh class-action lawsuit which may ultimately contain many of YOUR shareholders! You don’t think, "…any market can be controlled over an extended period of time." Well GATA has documentation that gold has been manipulated since the mid ‘90’s! What is your definition of "extended period of time?" Guess what, some of us Newmont shareholders would like to see it all settled WITHIN OUR LIFETIME!
Frustratingly, after reading your response, I’m still not sure whether you (Newmont) believe that gold is manipulated but "have no control over the bullion or central banks." Or, you don’t believe it exists at all. Which is it? Is there a risk or consequence to an acknowledgment? I would like to know.
Respectfully,
Wistar HoltHouston’s Dan Norcini back to Wistar Holt:
Hello Wistar:
Thanks for the email and the exchange between you and that nitwit in Investor Relations that Newmont must have found at the local charity house.
The major mining companies are totally and completely useless and a bunch of gutless wonders. Imagine the holy hell we would be hearing from the techies or dot coms if it was found out that the feds had been surreptitiously manipulating the price of computer chips on the basis of some contrived nonsense such as "national security". Do you think for one moment that chipmakers would stand mutely by and allow it happen? Yet here we have a case where the profitability of these damn fools are directly affected and we hear such drivel as "we have no control over the bullion banks". We are not talking about "CONTROL OVER", we are talking about fighting them. Hell, why not just lay down in front of them and say" "Here I am, come and do with me anything you want".
I would think that these people would show a bit more frustration and righteous indignation. Instead they are as passionless as a corpse. A pox on the whole lot of them.
About New Orleans. - I will be there. Look forward to meeting you buddy.
best,
DanPerhaps no company has been more disappointing to GATA over the last half decade than Newmont Mining. With their clout in the state of Colorado and Nevada, and potential political influence with the US Congress, it is my opinion they could have put an end to the manipulation of the gold price years ago. Instead, they have chosen to remain silent and not to act in the best interest of their shareholders. Some of the bummers:
*When we met with Congress in 2001, they told us if the gold price was suppressed why was Newmont silent?
*I have met President Wayne Murdy twice, once at a private dinner during the Denver Gold Group Conference when GATA conducted its fax bombing attack at the attending CEO’s. Wayne is a very nice fellow, but a mainstream powderpuff.
*Newmont has not had the courtesy to respond to GATA’s phone calls or emails.
*Newmont actually returned an email to their CEO saying they never received it. Huh??? That is a first.
*Chairman Pierre Lassonde, the one man who could do so much for the gold industry, has chosen to cop out and do nothing. A HUGE disappointment in my book.Retro time again. Back to some excerpts from the MIDAS of:
July 31, 2000 - Spot Gold $277 down $1 - Spot Silver $4.99 up 4 cents
So now what? I can't tell you how buoyed up I am from the feedback about how GATA is gaining ground behind the scenes. All of us ARE being heard and more than I can let on at the moment. There is only one place that we are not being heard, to the best of my knowledge: by the gold producers in the United States.
It is a shame that GATA's biggest obstacle to helping gold investors, gold company shareholders and gold miners, geologists, etc, are the people that should be our biggest supporters. It is the big U.S. gold producers that have hindered Congress' investigation of the gold market as they go "duh" when staff members of US Senators and Congressman contact them as to GATA's claims. They could urge Congress on instead of responding, "what manipulation, what sizable gold loans, what gold derivatives problem??????????"
Time to take the gloves off.
To Newmont Mining shareholders:
The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has courted Newmont's financial support and moral support for well over a year now. One year ago, Larry Kurlander, one of their senior executives, came to Dallas to pick my brain and we spoke for over 3 hours. Then, he met with Frank Veneroso of Veneroso Associates in Newark, New Jersey for about the same amount of time. My meeting with Larry, a nice enough fellow, who rides a Harley over the countryside for recreation and fun, was very business-like, and could not have been more cordial. While he has a nice salary, it was my time on my dime.
Since then, he refuses to take my phone calls and will not correspond at all. Worse, I called Chairman Ron Cambre's office to get his email address to send him some information. In the strangest return email in history, his office sent my email back saying that was not Ron Cambre's email address (after they gave it to me), thus "suggesting" that he could not have received an email from me in the first place. Good Lord. What did Larry Kurlander, a former District Attorney with extensive Washington contacts tell Cambre? Does Newmont know about the ESF, the Fed, and the rest of the mob and is so afraid that GATA is right that they have to send back emails? - that they won't even accept phone calls when we are trying to help their own shareholders?
Why do I go into this now? Because in ONE week, one of their popular Colorado Senators has immediately gone to bat for one of this Colorado constituents regarding the ESF and this July 23 Midas commentary:
"The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee believes that Congress and US citizens have a right to know if they have been involved in the gold market in any way over the past couple of years. Chris Powell, GATA Treasurer/Secretary, has taken action in this arena and forwarded this sample letter to the Café in case you wish to take some action yourself:
"U.S. Sen. / U.S. Rep. ----------
U.S. Senate / U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, D.C. 20510 / 20515
"Dear Senator / Representative --------:I write to you with concerns about questionable activities in the gold market, in the hope that you might be able to get answers for me.
"First, I am concerned that the Commodities Futures Trading Commission seems to be indifferent to the manipulation of the gold price in the Comex gold market by the strangely disproportionate and seemingly coordinated sale of futures contacts and options by J.P. Morgan & Co., Goldman Sachs & Co., and Deutsche Bank. I would be grateful if you could bring this to the attention of the commission's chairman, William Rainer, and ask him if the commission lately has reviewed the gold market generally and the role of Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank particularly.
"Second, I am concerned about the profits and losses recently reported by the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund. According to a gold market analyst, Reginald H. Howe, the profits and losses recently reported by the ESF correspond very closely with changes in the price of gold, the ESF showing profits when gold's price falls and losses when it rises. The implication is that the ESF is selling futures, options, or other financial instruments related to gold to keep the price down.
"As you may know, the ESF is under the direct control of the President and the Treasury Secretary, and it seems to me that only they can speak authoritatively about the ESF's activities. So would you consider asking the Treasury Secretary to explain exactly how the ESF's profits and losses have been generated in the last two years and whether those "profits and losses have involved gold in any way? I very much would like to know. I suspect that the financial world would be interested in the answer too.
Thanks for whatever you can do."
End.
I urge every Newmont shareholder to ask Newmont Mining Chairman Ron Cambre, and President Wayne Murdy, if they have requested the same? If not, why not?
When I spoke with John Mielke of the CFTC today, I told him when the gold price explodes and creates financial problems the most asked question will be, "how could that have happened?" If he does not look into the obvious, then he might be held accountable some day. The same is true of Cambre and Murdy. Put them on notice, Newmont shareholders! It will all come out in the eventual gold market scandal investigation of who did what when notified. Just the way it is!
The Republican Party Convention in the US is in high glory now with many people with diverse views (pro-life/pro-choice) coming to together to root on their party and their man for President, George W. Bush. Newmont need not agree with all that GATA has to say, or even be associated with us, but can't they at least do what one American Indian has already done; what one proud American Senator of their own State is doing! Ben Nighthorse Campbell is known for being a stand up guy. How about you - Ron Cambre and Wayne Murdy?
I encourage every Café member who has some time to call or email Wayne Murdy or Pierre Lassonde at Newmont if you are as disgusted with them as I am.
MIDAS
I urge the GATA ARMY to go into action again. Contact Wayne Murdy and Pierre Lassonde by phone or email and register your own thoughts with them. It takes so little time. Yet, if thousands contact them, it will at least get their attention.
To RAP up, the gold shares held very well today with the silver shares the strongest. The XAU gave up .56 of yesterday’s advance to 95.81, while the HUI lost 1.12 to 213.24.
Only a matter to time before gold busts through $412. Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
FYI on the preparation of the MIDAS:
As soon as one MIDAS is done, information for the next one is collected. I present to you what is of most interest to me as a precious metals investor, using my many years of experience in this arena. Naturally, I cull it out to what I believe will be most beneficial for you. This goes on until the MIDAS goes up.
There is no way I can do all of this and have it perfect edited and corrected by 5:30 to 6:00 (approx) East Coast time. Therefore, I do the best I can and get it out there for readers on the East Coast US, figuring the timeliness is more important to most than the cleanest copy possible. I am fortunate to have a fantastic editor named Sarge who gets on the case as soon as it is up, or as soon as he returns from other duties. He then does the final edit and corrects any factual mistakes I might have made. With his "Mensa" mind, he doesn’t miss much. If anyone out there is looking for a superb find in this area, you may reach Michael at unclemikey@citlink.net
This is why the MIDAS copies are so much cleaner later in the evening. Some of you might have seen a bunch of mistakes, or writing of a lesser quality, in last evening’s MIDAS 2000 Barrick re-run commentaries. That was before Sarge showed up.