Beiträge von ThaiGuru

Der Schreiberling Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach äussert und behauptet in seinem neuesten Beitrag in der FTD, vom 6. September 2004, Gold Cabal linientreu, dass die Nachfrage nach Gold einbrechen würde.

Die Chinesen schreiben aber etwas ganz anderes!

China Daily berichtet in ihrem heutigen Zeitungsbericht davon, das die Nachfrage nach Gold in China gerade gewaltig ansteigt, und mit einer VERDREIFACHUNG der Nachfrage von jetzt 200 Tonnen auf 600 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr innerhalb einiger Jahre gerechnet wird. Diese zusätzlichen 400 Tonnen müssten nach Aussage von WGC fast gänzlich zusätzlich IMPORTIERT werden.

Das ergäbe dann ein erhöhtes Jahres-Produktiondefizit von jetzt 1500 Tonnen, auf 1900 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr, wobei die steigende Nachfrage nach Gold in vielen anderen Ländern noch gar nicht berücksichtigt ist.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Der Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach arbeitet und schreibt im Interesse des Gold Cabals. Sein Haupt-Arbeitgeber ist bemerkenswerter weise beim konkursiten Gold Hedger Sons of Gwalia involviert.

Wenn dieser Gold Kartell Wasserträger von Absatzschwierigkeiten beim Gold schreibt, weiss er ganz genau, dass das nicht nur nicht stimmt, sondern sogar eine Lüge darstellt. Der Wrzesniok-Roßbach sollte eigentlich auch ganz genau wissen, dass ein eventueller Streik in Südafrika das Goldangebot noch weiter verknappen wird, und nicht etwa erhöhen.

Bei einem seit über 10 Jahren bestehenden Goldproduktionsdefizit, dass dieses Jahr mindestens 1500 Tonnen Gold betragen wird, von einem Ueberangebot beim Gold zu sprechen, ist eine völlig idiotische Aussage, oder eben nur dazu gedacht die Leser der FTD böswillig in die Irre zu führen, oder zumindest zu verunsichern, und damit vom Gold Kauf abzuhalten.

Und genau das macht dieser tatsachenverdrehede Schreiberling seit Jahren, und trotzdem hat sich die Nachfrage immer weiter erhöht, und die Gold Preise sind von 250.- Dollar bis auf 430.- Dollar gestiegen, und stehen zur zeit bei ca. 400.- Dollar.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

afm

Verstehe Deine Emotionen nur zu gut!

Die Schweiz will das Nationalbank Gold nicht verkaufen, sie HAT es schon verkauft. Zumindest bald 1300 Tonnen Gold von den früher vorhandenen gesammthaft 2600 Tonnen SNB Gold.

Ueber was die Politiker aller Schattierungen zur Zeit streiten ist die Verteilung des Geldes (Fiat Money) die die Nationalbank für den Verkauf bereits erhalten hat, und für den kleinen Rest, den die SNB noch von ausstehenden Verkäufen bis zur Ausschöpfung der bewilligten 1300 Tonnen Gold der erhalten wird.

Die restlichen 1300 Tonnen Gold stehen, vorerst wenigstens offiziell nicht zum Verkauf.

Das Problem ist nur, dass niemand wissen will, wo den die übriggebliebenen 1300 Tonnen SNB Gold gelagert werden. Da die National Bank, ebenfalls eine Privat Bank, genauso wie die FED, keine Auskunft darüber erteilt wieweit sie das Schweizer Gold in der Schweiz verwahrt, oder in welchen Mengen sie das Gold im Ausland, von welcher Institution verwahren lässt, dürfen wir nur raten.

Selbst der ehemalige Bundesrat Kaspar Villiger sagte sinngemäss auf eine parlamentarische Anfrage (kein Witz!), dass er es auch nicht wüsste, er es nicht zu wissen brauche, und es auch nicht wissen wolle, wo denn das SNB Gold gelagert sei. Es sei alles geheim!

Die SNB führt in ihrer Bilanz ausgeliehenes Gold aus, genauso als Bestände aus, wie wenn es noch physisch vorhanden wäre. Die SNB sieht da anscheinend keinen Unterschied.

Vielleicht versetze ich Dir damit noch einen Schock mehr lieber afm, doch ich befürchte, dass die Schweizerische Nationalbank bereits jetzt schon das allermeiste Gold, auch den offiziell übrig gebliebenen Teil von 1300 Tonnen Schweizer Gold, in Wirklichkeit gar nicht mehr physisch besitzt, zumindest nicht in der Schweiz, sondern der weit aus grösste Teil dieses CH Goldes sich bereits im Ausland, vermutlich in England, und in den USA befindet, und dass die SNB fast nur noch über Gold als Papier Forderungen verfügt. Von unabhängiger Seite wurden in der Schweiz meines Wissensstandes nach, in den letzten Jahren diese sogenannten Goldreserven, seit ich mich zu erinnern mag, noch nie physisch überprüft.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/images/gslogo.jpg]

http://http://news.goldseek.co…ennyStocks/1094427202.php

Gold & Silver Penny Stocks #2

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/G…tocks/GoldPennyStocks.PNG]

By: Dr. Clive Roffey, Gold & Silver Penny Stocks

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/G…s/images/04.09.2004/1.PNG]

weiter....

http://http://news.goldseek.co…ennyStocks/1094427202.php

dr fart

Toll dass Du da beim WDR angerufen hast!

Falls Du hier im Thread noch die Telefon Nummer der wdr veröffentlichen könntest, wären wer weiss noch weitere Leute bereit dort selbst mal anzurufen, und die Bekanntgabe der täglichen Goldpreise zu fordern.

Je mehr Thread Leser da ebenfalls kurz anrufen, desto weniger halten die Dich beim wdr für einen Spinner.

Kundenwünsche sollten dem wdr eigentlich schon etwas am Herzen liegen.

Es müssen nur genügend Leute anrufen.

Ob es für den Leser Brief direkt was von der Zeitung gibt, oder erst später indirekt, wenn die Gold Preis Manipulationen des Gold Cabals enden, durch höhere Gold, und Aktienpreise, sollte nicht so wichtig sein.

Dir selbst ging es wohl auch nicht in erster Linie ums Geld, sondern Du wolltest selbst etwas positives beitragen, dass Gold endlich wieder den Stellenwert erhält beim wdr, und anderswo, den Gold zu Recht verdient.

Die grösste schweizerische Tages Zeitung Blick, zahlt trotzdem noch Geld für jede Information, die zu einem Beitrag in der Zeitung führt.
Blick veröffentlicht übrigens auch immer noch keine Gold Preis Notierungen.

Der Tages Anzeiger bezahlt m.W.n ebenfalls für jeden veröffentlichen Leser Brief. Es sind noch etliche weitere schweizer Zeitungen die ein Honorar, wenn auch meistens ein sehr kleines bezahlen.

Wie es in Deutschland aussieht ist mir nicht genau bekannt, doch kann ich mir nicht vorstellen, dass man für veröffentlichte Leserbriefe bei sämmtlichen deutschen Zeitungen kein Honorar mehr erhält. So geizig könnnen die deutschen Verlage doch nicht sein?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

kalle14

Der neue Spiegel Bericht zur Deutschen Bank trifft den Nagel auf den Kopf. Da kann der Ackerman noch so stark dementieren, und Protestbriefe an die englische Zeitung "The Economist" senden, die Deutsche Bank spielt mit der Substanz des Ersparten ihrer Kunden, und das ist mehr als unverantwortlich. Warte mal ab bis raus kommt wieviel Gold, und Silber die Deutsche Bank "naked short" ist. Oder glaubst Du, dass die DB das an ihre Kunden auf Papier bereits verkaufte, und für diese auf Konten gebuchte Edelmetall, auch wirklich zur Zeit in vollem Umfange physisch besitzt?

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,387111,00.jpg]

afm

Es werden mehr, und mehr kritische Berichte veröffentlicht, die die realen politischen, und finanziellen Hintergründe in den USA hinterfragen. Das die neue Zürcher Zeitung sich ebenfalls damit auseinandersetzt, zeugt davon, dass es bereits laut knirscht im Gebälk.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

COT Gold Report - September 3, 2004

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1094243489.php

COT Silver Report - September 3, 2004

http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1094239949.php

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW fell 30 to 10,260, while the DOG really struggled, falling 29 to 1844. The DOG’s loss more than negated yesterday’s staged advance.

Oil slightly lower and the 30-yr Treasury bond lost about a point.

NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures rose in August as a result of faster growth in real estate loans and commodity prices a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, climbed to 118.5 in August from 117.4 in July, the research group said.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, jumped to 3.5 percent in August from 1.7 percent in July.

"The future inflation gauge is approaching its March 2004 high of 119.0, therefore inflation remains a lingering concern, said, Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $5.5 B in temporary repurchase agreements today Sept 3rd 2004, an action that dipped the repo pool a bit to $53.015 Billion and kept it very high. Yesterday the Fed came in late with another $9.5 Billion add that undoubtedly caused the DOW rally we saw. The DOW's moving average has begun to turn flat in what looks like the third bottom for the move, while the repo pool's moving average has turned sharply up, signaling more support by the Fed.

Oil continues to be a major problem for the Fed and I continue to think that is where the lion's share of temporary repo funding ends up. The next BIS derivatives report will tell us the answer. It was running about $460 Billion. I'm guessing that number will be way up. Recall that whenever there's a rising commodities problem, derivatives go up in an effort to
suppress the price. This pattern is unmistakable and can be seen at:

http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/occ

Richard Russell, the most successful investment letter author, notes that the DOW volume is low. His reasons explaining this are varied but he appears slightly off the mark when the phenomenon is viewed in the context of intervention. Normal activities are thwarted when investors and their agents suspect intervention as they must these days. Everybody agrees that conventional market ratios are warped, breeding suspicion, which leads to low volumes (also seen at the above link). The same pattern is seen in the LBMA gold and especially silver volume numbers. There is an undeniable and steady fall in trading volume in these precious metals caused by the unwillingness of traders to receive lower than appropriate value for their metal. The bulk of the volume that does occur is interventional selling and not the regular give and take seen in a healthy market.

Insiders are expecting a DOW rise, gold market pundits say the jobs report makes it "safe" to allow rates to rise while gold is flat. Let's parse this Wall Street noise.

Firstly, the economy isn't rosy when 500,000 people show up for 3,000 jobs in a Long Beach, CA longshoreman recruit. Second, IF the DOW rises, it will be solely due to Fed repo support and not to Wall Street's propaganda explanations. Finally, interest rates are being FORCED up by rising commodities prices and competitive pressure from other sovereign central bank's higher rates.

In an environment of rising DOW and interest rates the Fed will NATURALLY allow gold to rise so as to conserve their remaining stocks, confident that the FALSE DOW rally will divert people from the REAL rally in gold. There is a firm history of linkage between gold and real interest rates as the good professor, Larry Summers (aka SECTREAS) taught. One cannot speak of moving interest rates without affecting gold. Moving rates UP seems to be the coming mantra so they are also silently speaking of rising gold. This appears to be their PLAN but all plans in a rigged market world are fragile, waiting to be plucked by aggressive speculators with knowledge.

North Ossetia Crisis

The hostage crises is apparently over without great loss of life (10) although there were reports of 160 injuries. It could have been far worse.

Oil...turmoil

Yukos bankruptcy seems a certainty as today their officials lamented the imminent loss of a $2 Billion account needed to pay contractors and staff.
This put heavy upward pressure on the oil price, some thing Putin doesn't mind at all. Nor will he be upset to learn about the sabotage of the day...

Iraq oil pipeline blazes after attack
From:Reuters Friday, 03 September, 2004

http //www.home.eircom.net/content/r...=Eircomnet

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq is struggling to cope with the fiercest attack yet on its northern oil export network, while flows to southern export terminals have been steady after recovering from sabotage, officials say.

Fire was still raging on the northern pipeline on Friday after it was attacked on Thursday in the Riad area, around 70 km (45 miles) southwest of the oil centre of Kirkuk.

"This is the strongest assault on the northern pipeline we have seen. The fire could be put out in two days if we manage to erect sand walls to isolate it," said Ahmad al-Ubaidi, a senior North Oil Company security official.

Firefighters at the scene withdrew, saying nothing could be done to put out the flames for now. The road between Kirkuk and the Baiji refinery was still cut, witnesses said. END
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The hurricane broods just offshore from Florida's East Coast and I'm almost finished building and painting shutters. It's like a week at the gym in two days but it needed to be done, even if the storm weakens over land. There's always a reason to put off this kind of effort but there's nothing like the feeling when it's done.

Kind of like getting one's portfolio in order.
Mike

More from Mike later:

Hi Bill:

Fridays provide me with added visibility. Today's numbers indicate that the Fed is turning their main target from slightly flat to up, a steerage that appears to intercept a target on or about next Friday. Since your intelligence channels also point to the second week of September I'm taking this data move seriously.

These data moves and intelligence seem to be converging just before the WA anniversary and that only adds fuel to the indicators. Another point of concern is the nearness to the cardinal level of $400 per ounce PM Fix.

Nothing happens by chance at the Fed's Gold War Room.

My advice is to be IN before the close on Sept 9th. My reasoning for a subsequent up move or a positive development of some kind is that the Fed has expended a massive quantity of metal since May 17th 2004 in their recent counter-attack, have suffered huge oil derivatives losses and their DOW/repo support mechanism appears to be weak. They are also under increasing interest rate pressures due to the overall commodities bull markets and competing higher rates as previously mentioned earlier in the day.

This recommendation isn't as solid as others I've made and is early, but there are enough odd things going on so that one shouldn't be too cute here, just get in physical. SAMEX isn't a bad place to be right now either.
Mike

For the unenlightened ones out there who still don’t get it yet about gold, regard the following. Price-fixing (manipulation) cases are a dime a dozen:

03 Sep 2004 10:22

EU slaps 222 mln euro fine on copper cartel

BRUSSELS, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The European Commission on Friday imposed a 222.3 million euro ($271.1 million) fine on a group of copper pipeline makers for conspiring to fix prices and set territories for copper plumbing pipes

"Because of the companies' illegal behaviour, EU consumers paid more for plumbing replacement work or when buying a house than if the healthy forces of competition had been at play," EU Competition Commissioner Mario Monti said in a statement.

Two of the companies fined were Finland's Outokumpu Oyj and privately held Wieland-Werke of Germany. Outokumpu was fined 36.14 million euros and and Wieland-Werke was fined 27.8 million euros.

-END-

This is wonderful feedback as it comes from a gold mining executive in the Philippines:

bill

the sprott report is getting widespread circulation among industry people -- i have received it from london, usa, canada, and australia -- three times each ..

AND ANOTHER ONE BITES THE "GOLDEN" DUST

SGW – Sons of Gwalia

Within the Australian Mining Industry there are two codes of practice, namely

the JORC and VALMIN Codes

•JORC CODE
••http://www.ausimm.com/codes/jorc.asp

•VALMIN CODE

••http://www.ausimm.com/codes/valmin.asp

Every Quarter each company must report to the Australian Stock Exchange, and some qualified person, normally the Exploration Manager, must sign off on the JORC compliant Resources and Reserves.

Now we have the interesting situation whereby SGW have a Hedge Book of some 2,2 million ounces of Gold. The basic question is, does SGW have the Ore Reserve (not Geological Resources) to deliver, and the answer is "NO" they do not.

A further question is then raised, as to what SGW reported to the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), and was SGW trading while insolvent?

This casts a serious shadow on the Australian Mining Industry.
Och aye,

Haggis

One of the cabal carries on:

Gold Fields downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
ADR is 'GFI.'

Harmony Gold downgraded to sell from hold at Deutsche
ADR is 'HAR.'

The gold shares continue to be ignored, or just flop around. The XAU lost 1.58 to 92.93 and the HUI lost 3.87 to 201.89.

The continued price-capping by The Gold Cartel has lulled investors to sleep. The Argentina CB news, the UBS report, The Daughters of Gwalia blow-up and the Sprott report can all be related in some way and taken together, have built a powerfully bullish case. Just as the reasons to own gold become more compelling, gold supply is on the wane. A gold company CEO told me this afternoon he expects gold supply to drop by as much as 130 tonnes next year. Like The Daughters of Gwalia, there are other firms out there in the same boat. They don’t have the gold they said they had years ago. Their geologists erred, or their high-grading has ruined some of the firm’s remaining gold supply.

The recent cabal antics are tedious and frustrating; however, smoke is beginning to billow from the Gold Cartel camp. Every week a sign is coming our way they are in trouble, serious trouble, and the important gold news is beginning to snowball in our direction.

This means a gold price explosion is not far off at all!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Many Café members have suggested GATA get moving, or have offered support to help us win the day. My job is to make it as easy as possible for you. Below are ideas and names to contact If you are sick and tired of being cheated by The Gold Cartel crooks. Step up to the plate and take some action yourself!

The best thing we can do at the moment is to get the Sprott report out there. Below are ideas and names to contact If you are sick and tired of being cheated by The Gold Cartel crooks, step up to the plate and take some action yourself.

The best thing we can do now is to get the Sprott report out there. You can find it in Adobe Acrobat format. You can also find it at the Sprott Internet site here:

http://www.sprott.com/

Examples and input for you:

Hi Vicki,

With a 13% position in Hecla Mining among our clients’ assets, I am particularly interested in any commentary from senior management regarding the Sprott Asset Management report titled, "NOT FREE, NOT FAIR: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price." It can be retrieved at http://www.sprott.com/

I would also like to know any action Hecla plans to take involving this matter. For example, does management plan to discuss this issue with shareholders at the next board meeting? Do you foresee any company or industry-wide legal action against the bullion banks for consequences your shareholders have suffered?

Sincerely,

Wistar W. Holt
Holt & Shapard Capital Management, LLC
212 N. Kingshighway Blvd. Suite 1027
St. Louis, MO 63108
(314)367-6300 / (877)367-6300
http://www.holtshapard.com/

Bill
Ref Chuck's request in todays Midas.
Contact email addresses for some of the more influential swiss and german news papers/ magazines.

1) Neue Zuercher Zeitung
http://www.nzz.ch/kontakt/index.html

2) Tribune de Geneve
http://www.tdg.ch/accueil/engl…r/index.php?Page_ID=13093

and email
redaction@tdg.ch

3) Der Spiegel
list of editors
http://www.spiegel.de/extra/0,1518,162848,00.html

contact email
http://www.spiegel.de/extra/0,1518,159341,00.html

Dont feel inhibited to send them emails in english.

Best
Alan

Bill

Following up on the notion (in today's midas) of letting as many media contacts as possible know about gold issues, Sprott report, etc., here's a list of emails of various international media outlets that I've collected and that other lemet subscribers may find useful. Just have to copy from here to the CC: or BCC: line of any email to send out all at once. Perhaps others have other lists so that a master list could be composed on your site and frequently used by many. It's a bit like advertising: once you've heard the message repeated often enough from enough directions, you tend to take more notice.

all the best

Tim

advedit@adv.newsltd.com.au, aedmunds@wme.co.uk, aftnet@bom2.vsnl.net.in,
atheditor@dolnet.gr, comments@nationaudio.com, cyberpresse@cyberpresse.ca,
dearjo@mirror.co.uk, dgeditor@nbnet.nb.ca, dtletters@telegraph.co.uk,
dtmletr@matp.newsltd.com.au, ec.news@ncjmedia.co.uk, edit@iht.com,
edito@lapresse.ca, editor@aldstar.com, editor@catholicnewtimes.org,
editor@economictimes.com, editor@egypttoday.com, editor@expressindia.com,
editor@guelphmercury.com, editor@jang.com.pk, editor@metimes.com,
editor@nigeriatoday.com, editor@philstar.com, editor@richmond-news.com,
editor@saigon-news.com, editor@straight.com, editor@sunpub.com,
editor@the-news.net, editor@timesofindia.com, editor@westender.com,
editor@wpgsun.com, editorial@advocate.red-deer.ab.ca,
editorial@burnabynow.com, editorial@mjtimes.sk.ca, editorial@monitor.co.ug,
editorial@nnsl.com, editorial@paherald.sk.ca, editorial@thejakartapost.com,
editorial@thesudburystar.com, edletters@afr.fairfax.com.au,
EDPLetters@ecn.co.uk, email@news.lu, epletters@bepp.co.uk,
eveningmail@mrn.co.uk, features@liverpoolecho.co.uk,
feedback@hindustantimes.com, feedback@indiaworld.co.in,
feedback@inquirer.com.ph, fpletters@nationalpost.com,
gnews@glengarrynews.ca, hilltimes@achilles.net,
hsletters@hwt.newsltd.com.au, independent.letters@independent.ie,
indonesian-observer@indoexchange.com, info@pakcyber.com,
infos@acadienouvelle.com, itgo@india-today.com, james_wark@cbc.ca,
jfenby@scmp.com, kamloopsnews@telus.net, lenouvelliste@tr.cgocable.ca,
letters.editor@ft.com, letters@chosun.com, letters@chroniclejournal.com,
letters@economist.com, letters@edm.sunpub.com,
letters@expressandstar.co.uk, letters@freepress.mb.ca,
Letters@GlobeAndMail.ca, letters@guardian.co.uk, letters@haaretz.co.il,
letters@hamiltonspectator.com, letters@herald.co.nz, letters@herald.ns.ca,
letters@independent.co.uk, letters@leader-post.sk.ca, letters@lfpress.com,
letters@macleans.ca, letters@mg.co.za, letters@nationalpost.com,
letters@newscientist.com, letters@newsindia-times.com,
letters@nfreview.com, letters@observer.co.uk, letters@praguepost.cz,
letters@smh.fairfax.com.au, letters@standard.co.uk,
letters@sunday-times.co.uk, letters@theage.fairfax.com.au,
letters@theaustralian.com.au, letters@thecitizen.southam.ca,
letters@thegazette.southam.ca, letters@theherald.southam.ca,
letters@thejournal.southam.ca, letters@therecord.com,
letters@thetelegram.com, letters@thetimes.co.uk,
letters@times-colonist.com, letters@whitehorsestar.com,
letters@win.southam.ca, lettersed@irish-times.ie,
letterseditor@canberratimes.com.au, letterstoeditor@hfxnews.southam.ca,
lettertoed@thestar.ca, lherald@lis.ab.ca, mail@westpress.co.uk,
mdhletters@medicinehatnews.com, mdn@mainichi.co.jp,
medpost@mhpublishing.com, mercuryedletter@dbl.newsltd.com.au,
mike.turner@ok.bc.ca, mmaloney@vancourier.com, news@cambridge-reporter.com,
news@nelsondailynews.com, news@timestranscript.com, newsdesk@ycp.co.uk,
newsonline@bbc.co.uk, newsroom@bby-nw-newsleader.com,
newsroom@emb.asahi-np.co.jp, newsroom@newwestnewsleader.com,
newsroom@sherbrookerecord.com, newsroom@tricitynews.com,
nouvelles@ledroit.com, oped@ott.sunpub.com, opinion@brt.southam.ca,
opinion@japantimes.co.jp, opinion@lequotidien.com, Opinion@manilatimes.net,
pbailey@scs.southam.ca, pek@cfpc.ca, penreview@vinewsgroup.com,
postbag@bangkokpost.net, postbag@mcr-evening-news.co.uk, pppost@cm17.com,
provletters@pacpress.southam.ca, readers@wme.co.uk,
readerspage@sundaypost.com, redaction@latribune.qc.ca,
redaction@lavoixdelest.qc.ca, redaction@ledevoir.com,
redaction@lequotidien.com, redaction@metronouvelles.com,
rfletcher@wme.co.uk, ricky.sutton@news-of-the-world.co.uk,
ross.freake@ok.bc.ca, saanichnews@vinewsgroup.com,
sarahkemp@icnewcastle.net, shletters@mail.fairfax.com.au,
skirkpatrick@scotsman.com, spnews@TheSP.com, Ssmstar@ssm.southam.ca,
stletters@telegraph.co.uk, straits@asia1.com.sg,
streport@matp.newsltd.com.au, SundayMercury@mrn.co.uk,
sunletters@pacpress.southam.ca, suntimes@tml.co.za, tambek@telecom.net.et,
tellingham@scotsman.com, textes@jdeq.com, thehindu@indiaserver.com,
thestatesman@vsnl.com, TimesEditorial@scottishmedia.com,
tjletters@nbpub.com, tncube@zimind.mweb.co.zw, ttedit@abpmail.com,
vicnews@vinewsgroup.com, vndemo@fva.org, voice@warsawvoice.pl,
webeditor@timesofindia.com, weekly@tokyo.nikkei.co.jp, whiged@thewhig.com,
writeback@belfasttelegraph.co.uk, yangk@koreatimes.co.kr

***

Bitte fühlt Euch frei auch einmal etwas selbst zur Aufklärung der Goldpreis Manipulation beizutragen, und selbst auch einmal aktiv zu werden.

Eine E-Mail ist schnell abgesandt, ein Anruf bei der lokalen, oder regionalen Zeitung ist schnell erledigt, ein Leserbrief schnell verfasst, vielfach gibt es sogar noch Geld dafür, und kann ein wenig mit dazu beitragen, dass sich unsere Presse endlich mit diesem wichtigen Thema, Gold und Silber Preis Manipulation auseinandersetzen muss !!!

Den Link zur Sprott Gold Studie bitte dabei nicht vergessen!

http://www.sprott.com/

TG

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Massive Bear raid, probably futile: Indians delighted

Friday, September 3 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.10, PM $7.18, with world gold at $405.20 and $405.90. Extremely high. This is basis Bombay: but the other three cities reported by Reuters show similar results. India must be a powerful buyer from overseas at these prices and holding gold below these levels will require the furnishing of a great deal of physical gold.

Indian inflation was reported today to have risen to a 3 ½ year high of 8.17%, but the Government is identifying excuses to do nothing about it: a congenial backdrop to gold demand. Shanghai is showing modest premiums too.

TOCOM prudently displayed no gold enthusiasm: volume slipped 12% to the equivalent of 15,270 Comex lots; the active contract was down 5 yen; world gold went out down 55c from the NY close. (NY yesterday traded 25,471 contracts, with open interest up 3,671 lots to 273,047.)

Yesterday in NY was one of quiet speculative positioning. The comparatively steep open interest increase on a day in which gold was down $2.80 suggests shorting was quite significant. UBS notes:

"Despite the broadly sideways move in the currency market yesterday, gold slipped lower in US trading yesterday with one US investment bank a noted seller"

ScotiaMocatta concurs:

"Gold began the day around the 408.00 level but soon came under pressure, as dealers were noted sellers…late in the day…fund selling forced a new low of 405.50/406.00. Scattered physical buying then took the metal back to 405.80/406.30 at the close"

As several commentators anticipated, the release of the US payroll data (although not in fact above forecast as some hoped) has triggered a serious assault on gold in what, considering also the dollar, appears to be an outbreak of Wall Street/US triumphalism. Estimated volume at 11am was 50,000, double yesterday’s entire trade on what was supposed to be a thin day! It is, however, unusual to see much downside progress sustained starting from a point at which the physical market was so buoyant. Indeed, one wonders at the timing, bearing in mind Monday will see key physical buying markets open and US speculators sidelined.

UBS provides some welcome comfort for the friends of gold today with a piece asserting that the European Central Banks may only sell half the 500 tonnes envisaged in the second round of the Washington Agreement. Their reasons are, lack of alternative instruments (since holding Euros is pointless as an FX asset), a view that gold might appreciate, and stronger objections by the German and French Bank bureaucrats. UBS even raises the possibility this will encourage other Central Bankers to buy gold, and talks of raising their end 2004 estimate, which is currently $450.

As always in considering remarks about Central Banks by those who might plausibly be expected to deal with them, the issue is not the strength of the arguments advanced, but whether the commentator actually knows something. (After all, the point about not being able to hold Euros has always been true.) Given the standing of UBS – and the high quality of their gold commentary – the essay deserves serious attention (See 2cnd attachment).

Generally, the question of foreign CBs Gold-holding strategy is fundamentally a question of their attitude to the US, the manufacturer of the main alternative asset. Very likely feelings are not what they were five years ago.

I will probably put out a note on Monday.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

September 3 - Gold $400 down $5.50 – Silver $6.54 down 19 cents

Very Bullish Gold News: "Central Banks May Sell Less Gold Than Planned," Says UBS

Zitat

Permanence, perseverance and persistence in spite of all obstacles, discouragements, and impossibilities: It is this, that in all things distinguishes the strong soul from the weak...Thomas Carlyle

GO GATA!!!

Anyone following the MIDAS commentary the past few weeks now has a clear understanding of exactly how The Gold Cartel does its thing and how they have been ripping off the specs for 8 years or so. There is no doubt in my mind the gold specs have lost more money trading the Comex than in any other market by a factor of 500% to 1,000%. The cabal steals from them year after year, yet they keep coming back the same way by trading gold based on their same moving average systems. Maneuvering that way in a rigged market is a killer.

The irony is the real gold news today was about as bullish as it gets and if gold were trading freely it would have rallied $10, regardless of the dollar action. First the day’s economic news, which on, and under, the surface was TERRIBLE! Even so the dollar took off to 89.66, up .64 and the euro fell .91 to 120.66, which was off its low of 120.39. For the life of me I can’t think about what traders were thinking about today except "momentum" and not fighting the tape.

The economic news:

08:30 August unemployment rate reported 5.4% vs. consensus 5.5%; non-farm payrolls +144K vs. consensus +150K
* * * * *

First of all this number was below consensus and it takes 150,000 new jobs just to keep pace with economic growth. THEN: http://www.goldseek.com reports:

August's "Net Birth/Death Adjustment" was set at +120,000. Therefore, the August nonfarm job's data, taking out the "adjustment", came in at only +24,000.

AND, this number does not include any job losses from Hurricane Charley. This just cannot be! Oh yes it can. Here’s how:

from: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.

Hurricane Charley

Hurricane Charley struck Florida during the August survey reference period. BLS made additional data collection efforts for the hurricane-affected counties to ensure that payroll survey response rates were at normal levels. Our examination of the survey data suggests that there were no discernable weather-related effects on national payroll employment as measured by the establishment survey. This was likely due to the fact that the storm hit late in the reporting period for most of our survey respondents. For the storm to have affected payroll employment, people would have had to have been off work for the entire pay period and not paid for the time missed. (In the household survey, people who miss work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off.)

So guess what else, the Household Survey showed a loss of 155,000 jobs, yet it was not discussed anywhere on CBNC as far as I saw. That ninny Lawrence Kudlow has been crowing about that survey for months. Now that it is a bummer, he shut up and failed to disclose the number as far as I say. What a hypocrite! He is nothing more than a Wall Street cheerleading shill.

08:30 August average hourly earnings reported 0.3% vs. consensus 0.2%; August average weekly hours 33.8 vs. consensus 33.7
Prior average hourly earnings revised to 0.4% from 0.3%; prior average weekly hours revised to 33.8 from 33.7.
* * * * *

Wage inflation in the US is on the rise.

08:31 July unemployment rate unrevised at 5.5%; July non-farm payrolls revised to +73K from +32K
* * * * *
The unemployment rate went down because so many people stopped looking for jobs, according to all those reporting on the BLS number.

10:00 ISM Non-manufacturing reported 58.2 vs. consensus 62
Prior reading was 64.8.
* * * * *

Once again we see an important economic number which came in less than expected, as has been consistently the case for weeks/months.
You put all of that together, along with the hugely disappointing Intel high-tech revelations last evening, and it should have had most of Wall Street morose. Never fear however, the PPT is here to cushion any downside momentum in the stock sector.

Silver was brutalized as it failed to hold recent gains. The gold open interest rose 767 contracts to 273,047 and the silver open interest gained 235 contracts to 94,962.

The COT report was not what you might have expected. The large commercials increased their longs by 1900 contracts, while the large specs increased their shorts by 4100 contracts.

The small specs increased their longs, making up the difference.

Now for the main gold event for the day. It comes from a UBS report out this morning by John Reade out of London:

John Reade
+44-20-7567-6755
john.reade@ubs.com

Central Banks may sell
less gold than planned

The entire report may be read by clicking below:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/gold020904.pdf

The essence of what John Reade (whom Reg Howe and I met at the FT Gold Conference in Paris in May of 2000) has to say is that the central banks covered by the Washington Agreement may sell as little as 250 tonnes of gold per year instead of an anticipated 500 tonnes.

While this report may be construed as modestly bullish by UBS, it is explosive the way GATA understands the gold market. Why:

*The gold establishment (probably including UBS) says the central banks have 32,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults, minus 2500 to 4,000 tonnes lent out for various hedging operations, etc. Their number used to be slightly higher, but since they do not account for lent/swapped gold other than to hedgers, this number has to be smaller today because the gold producers have cut back on their hedges so sharply over the past couple of years.

*The GATA camp, via the analysis of Turk, Howe and Veneroso, believes the central banks have less than 16,000 tonnes left. The difference is the CB gold which has been lent/swapped out surreptitiously to facilitate their nefarious gold price suppression scheme.

*It has been my long held opinion the price of gold would never really take off until The Gold Cartel is defeated. They would eventually be defeated because they would not have enough physical gold to meet demand. Thus, the price must rise to ration the excess demand when the cartel supply began running low, or ran out. In this regard the main determinant of the price of gold for the months and years ahead will be what happens to The Gold Cartel and their gold to meet surging demand. This is in contrast to many others who believe the dollar will be the main determinant of the gold price.

**The difference between the central banks having something like 29,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults versus less than 16,000 tonnes, as GATA believes, is enormous and extremely important. The yearly supply/demand deficit is running more than 1500 tonnes per year. This means The Gold Cartel needs to come up with 1500 tonnes per year to keep the price from rising.

*GATA knows our numbers are in the ballpark. We just don’t know where The Gold Cartel is getting their gold from. What this means is a number of central banks don’t have the gold they say they have, and have not let the investment world (and in some cases, the citizens of their own countries) in on this. Much of their gold is lent out and they cannot get it back without driving the price of gold to the moon. The Gold Cartel is like a heroin addict. It needs its fix of clandestine gold each week and month. Therefore, not only can it not stop selling gold, it must keep on getting its fix, or adding more gold. If they stop, MUCH LESS TRY AND GET THEIR GOLD BACK, the yearly supply demand deficit would balloon to 2500 tonnes+. The price would immediately go berserk.

*John Reade has a staff of 9 people. At least he did when he had lunch with Reg and I because that is how many were at the luncheon table. John is also very well connected and would not put out a report such as this without some INFORMED insight as to what is likely to transpire and what the quiet scuttlebutt really is in the central banking world.

*My guess is The Gold Cartel is finally hitting the wall as GATA long predicted they would. They are probably going around trying to figure out who is going to sell what and have learned that various central banks will not lend or swap any more out for any number of reasons. Or, they can’t because it is not there any longer.

*This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Yesterday I reported some of my sources said something big is up. This sort of news certainly qualifies, as once clearly understood, gold could move gold up $60, or more, in a matter of weeks. It could also give impetus to the kind of moves which Mahendra is looking for.

This morning I was King Grouch. This made my day AND long Labor Day Weekend. This is the first concrete sign we have seen The Gold Cartel has about had it. We have some kind of fun fall ahead of us.

***

Estimated final volume was 88,000 – the session ended just after 12. At 11 it was 50,000.

Gold withstood an immense pounding to close just below the 200 day moving average. A frantic effort to start a rout was defeated.

The Bears are now in an awkward position. Those who are short have to get through a 3 day weekend, with the key physical buyers active.

Jürgen

Meine Aussage:

( Anders geht es ja wohl nicht sehr lange, bis die Amis Zahlungsunfähig werden )

bezog sich nur auf die rechtliche Zahlungsunfaehigkeit der USA. Das US Parlament muss eine Erhoehung des Schulden Limits bewilligen, sonst waeren die USA vermutlich noch in diesem Jahr technisch Zahlungsunfaehig, weil das erst vor kurzer Zeit erhoehte Schuldenlimit bereits schon wieder in greiffbare Naehe gerueckt ist. Bush verlangt ja bekanntlich wiederholt, dass diese Schulden Obergrenze komplett gestichen wird.

Deine Aussage:

(Die Zahlungs unfähigkeit wird sich dann einstellen, wenn das Kapital das in Staatsanleihen angelegt wird, geringer ist als die auflaufenden monatlichen Zinsbelastungen)

Ist natuerlich ebenso voellig richtig, und wird mit an Sicherheit grenzender Wahrscheinlichkeit ueber kurz, oder lang auch eintreten. Je groesser die Zinsbelastungen fuer die USA Schulden werden, Inflation, Hyperinflation, desto schneller duerfte dieser von Dir erwaehnte Fall auch eintreten.

Deine weiteren Aussagen in Deinem Posting kann ich ebenso unterstuetzen.

Die Schmerzgrenze der anderen Laender, die finanziellen Exzesse und den Wohlstand der elitaeren USA, direkt, oder indirekt bezahlen zu muessen, duerfte vor allem bei einem sich weiter entwertenden US Dollar, immer staerker, und vor allem auch schneller abzeichnen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/images/gslogo.jpg]

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1094233804.php

Gold Bulls’ Three Stages

[Blockierte Grafik: http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/zeal.gif]

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/Zealllc/2004/Zeal090304A.gif]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/junior_mining/345448.htm

Analyst says Kebbles will not get full control of Aflease

By: Gareth Tredway

Posted: '03-SEP-04 15:40' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- At Afrikander Lease’s interim results announcement on Friday, CE Neale Froneman told shareholders that the compny had received written assurances from Roger and Brett Kebble that an offer would be made to minorities if JCI and Randgold & Exploration were to gain a controlling stake.

Nic Goodwin a gold analyst at T-Sec, a South African trading house, says the announcement is just a “red-herring”. He believes that minorities are keen on the company’s future uranium prospects and will not except an offer anyway.

Randgold & Exploration and JCI, two JSE-listed mining companies, have loaned Aflease R175 million in share swap deal, which in the end, will give the companies an effective 41 percent stake in Aflease.

Goodwin told Mineweb that the share swap was the only way a struggling company like Aflease could get funding. “A rights issue would have been very difficult,” said Goodwin.

The funds have been used to keep the company going until Aflease starts producing gold again. The company closed its open-pit operation in December last year after costs exceeded a tumbling rand gold price. A deal to buy the Kalgold mine from Harmony later fell through, leaving Aflease without an operating asset.

Almost a fifth of the R44 million capex needed to start production at the small Bonanza South project has been spent, with production expected in the second quarter of next year. Bonanza is next door to Aflease’s property near the town of Klerksdorp.

Froneman says samples that have been taken are in line with the original mine plan which claims a reserve of 150,000 ounces of gold, mined at a cash cost of R64,000/kg.

Goodwin, who attended the results announcement, said he was not too keen on the company’s gold prospects. Nevertheless he believes: “The uranium thing is very good.” The spot price of uranium has almost doubled in the past 18 months, currently selling at 17-year highs.

“Aflease has a big advantage, holding one of the world’s major reserves,” said Goodwin. Aflease’s uranium resource, originally mined by Anglo American in the 1980’s is said to hold more than half of South Africa’s “near available uranium.”

According to Aflease, the project could cost as much as R1 billion depending on which method is used to extract the uranium. Goodwin said the company had a problem of funding such a transaction, but said Friday’s announcement that end-user financing could be used, was very encouraging. He said that if capital expenditure is financed by a power utility in exchange for a cheaper uranium contract price, then money would sooner be available for dividends.

For now the company will need to maintain its expenses until its postulated fruitful future pans out. For the quarter to end-June, the cash loss was down at R6.3 million, compared to R8.6 million in the quarter before. About R11 million was spent on capital expenditure in the quarter.

Es wäre sicher extrem aufschlussreich zu wissen, von wem denn genau dieses Sons of Gwalia Gold, das wie sich jetzt herauskristallisiert, nicht einmal als Reserven im Boden vorhanden war, bei dieser nakten Shortposition handelt sich immerhin um 500000 Unzen Gold, wann genau am Markt verkauft wurde, und wie weit dadurch die Gold Preise an diesen spezifischen Verkaufstagen negativ beeinflusst wurden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smh.com.au/images/masthead_logo_small.gif]

http://www.smh.com.au/articles…143587.html?oneclick=true

Sons of Gwalia's gold hedging had big holes

By Stephen Bartholomeusz

September 4, 2004

One of the perplexing questions raised by this week's collapse of Sons of Gwalia is how so many smart investors could have got it so wrong.

Stranded on the register of the failed tantalum and gold producer are some of the cannier institutional investors, while some of their equally clever peers escaped in the nick of time.

Among Sons of Gwalia's substantial shareholders are the Templeton group, Schroeder and Aviva. Canadian miner Teck Cominco owns about 10 per cent and a major tantalum customer, Cabot Corp, is also on the register. Goldman Sachs, Wellington and National Australia Bank's funds management businesses were all shareholders until very recently.

Zitat

Also exposed to the collapse are some of the world's biggest banks, including Citigroup, HBOS, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Dresdner, HSBC and, locally, ANZ and Commonwealth.

The institutions which got caught are angry. They knew the company's tantalum and gold arms had their challenges but hadn't envisaged the implosion.

While Sons of Gwalia is Australia's third-largest gold producer, that wasn't its main appeal to the institutions. They were attracted because the company controls more than half the world's production of tantalum - a rare metal used to make capacitors, used in electrical circuits.

Every mobile phone, laptop and video camera has tantalum in it, making Sons of Gwalia a seductive story for fund managers.

While the tantalum operations have had their share of problems - production difficulties, declining grades and long-term contracts that haven't enabled it to cash in on rising spot prices - they weren't behind Sons of Gwalia's demise.

It was the gold operations that undermined the group.

Sons of Gwalia, founded by the Lalor brothers, descendants of the Peter Lalor who led the Eureka Stockade rebellion in 1854, has produced about 5 million ounces of gold since it began producing the metal in 1984. Until this week, it had been expected to produce about 500,000 ounces a year.

Its ability to generate that production was critical because throughout its history it has fully hedged its production - in effect selling forward its entire output using some extremely complex strategies.

Generally that strategy has been profitable, although the group was hit hard in 2001 when the Australian dollar dived and its currency hedge generated losses.

Earlier this year the Lalor brothers, Peter and Chris, left the company and a new chief executive, former Pioneer International executive John Leevers, was appointed. A number of board changes followed and the new board commissioned a major strategic review of its operations.

That review's findings, supposed to be released late last month, appear to have catalysed the decision to call in administrators after talks with lenders failed.

Sons of Gwalia's chairman, Neil Hamilton, said this week that the review had identified a serious deterioration in the status of the group's gold reserves and resources which raised concerns about the company's ability to meet its hedge book commitments.

The position in which Sons of Gwalia found itself doesn't appear particularly complicated. It had committed to deliver a net 1.3 million ounces of gold to hedge-book counter-parties but the review had revealed a shortfall in economic reserves of about 500,000 ounces.

Sons of Gwalia had no way out - its hedge book was about $350 million underwater at June 30 on a mark-to-market basis and a rising Australian dollar gold price was exerting further pressure on the economics of the book.

The group had sold a lot more gold than it could produce. Its fundamental problem wasn't the hedge book or its gold operations but the interaction between the two.

The issue of how that could have happened is being investigated by the Australian Stock Exchange and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

There appears, however, to be an obvious explanation. The stated reserve estimates and production forecasts were wrong. Whether the miscalculation was deliberate or inadvertent will, obviously, be of consequence.

Sons of Gwalia had had some production problems in its mines, particularly those acquired from Teck Cominco when it bought PacMin for $160 million in 2001. It had experienced falling grades and rising cash costs after the failure of a pit wall, heavy rains, labour shortages and drilling difficulties.

But while revising down its profit expectation for 2003-04 to $21 million to $22 million in mid-July, the company had not indicated how parlous its position was.

That profit warning was the trigger for some of the institutions to exit the register. Most, however, were waiting for the outcome of the strategic review before coming to any conclusions.

In their enthusiasm for the "21st century metal" prospects for tantalum, the professionals, with hindsight, didn't focus enough on the gold operations and hedge book.

The complexity and the opacity of the hedging wasn't given sufficient emphasis, nor did the investors recognise that the problems within the gold operations might create a question mark over the economics of the resources and therefore over Sons of Gwalia's ability to meet its hedge book commitments.

They will pay a steep price for their distraction. The administration will crystallise the losses in the hedge book and inevitably exacerbate them.

There are suggestions that at least two of Sons of Gwalia's three gold operations are considered uneconomic, which in turn suggests the losses for the hedge book counter-parties could be very substantial and virtually guarantees that equity holders won't see any return once the tantalum business is sold and creditors absorb its proceeds.

The fate of Sons of Gwalia and its investors will reinforce the lesson provided by Pasminco's collapse and other hedge-related disasters.

Even sophisticated institutions will be reluctant to invest in companies with extensive hedging operations, particularly where the strategies are complex. And one suspects that even the investment banks which sit on the other side of the hedges will be more cautious in assessing the quality of the resources that underpin the production commitments and the proportion of production that can be sold forward.

Sons of Gwalia's strategy left it with no margin for error.

bartho@smh.com.au

uudo

Willkommen an Board!

Genau so ist es!

Die ausgebenden Banken dürfen sich freuen, über den Geldsegen den ihnen diese heutige Dollar push und Gold bash Aktion in die Kassen gespühlt hat.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Nun haben wir ja schon fast wieder Vollbeschäftigung in den USA, die Leute arbeiten jetzt so viel, dass sie keine Zeit mehr haben neue Autos zu kaufen. Darum verkauft GM und Ford bereits gewaltig weniger Fahrzeuge, und müssen die Produktion drosseln, wie gestern bekanntgegeben wurde.

Das Haushalts-, und Handeldefizit klettert in immer schwindelerregende Höhen, und die 8 Trillionen US Dollar Schulden werden höchstwahrscheinlich spätestens im 2. Quartal 2005 überschritten werden. Dazu braucht es noch ein O.K. des US Parlament. Das wird nächstens vermutlich auch bewilligt werden. Anders geht es ja wohl nicht sehr lange, bis die Amis Zahlungsunfähig werden.

Wozu braucht man da noch echtes Geld? Unnützes Zeugs wie das Gold, das stört ja nur. Darum sollen jetzt alle ihr Gold verkaufen, und soll wohl in "mündelsichere" US Dollar Staatsanleihen investiert werden.

Irgend ein Grossbetrüger hat auf die Frage, warum es ihm gelungen sei so viele Anleger hinters Licht zu führen, einmal erklärt:

Jeden Tag stehen auf unserer Welt Millionen Dumme auf. Man muss sie nur finden!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Einfach sagenhaft was einige neue Arbeitsplätze in den USA für ein explosionartig ansteigendes Interesse und Nachfrage-Schub an der Fiat Währung US Dollar auslösen kann!

Das macht man natürlich auch!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.aba.com/ABA/images/…es/hdr-bankeconomistl.jpg]

Economy Adds Jobs

The economy created 144,000 payroll jobs on net, the most since May. The July number was revised up from 32,000 to 73,000.

http://www.aba.com/Industry+Issues/BankEconomistOutlook.htm

Genau so macht man das!!!

Ob diese Empfehlung mal gut geht?

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.instock.de/images/Logo_silber1.gif]

http://www.instock.de/Nachrichten/10145860.html

Barrick Gold: Unter 16 Dollar kaufen

(Siegel Investments)

Der in Kanada beheimatete Minenkonzern Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX, Kurs 19,99 Dollar) meldet für das Juniquartal eine Goldproduktion von 1,28 Millionen Unzen, was leicht über der geplanten Jahresrate von 4,9 bis 5 Millionen Unzen liegt. Barrick plant weiterhin, die Produktion bis 2007 durch die Inbetriebnahme von 4 neuen Minen auf jährlich 7 Millionen Unzen steigern zu können. Bei Nettoproduktionskosten von 209 Dollar je Unze und einem Verkaufspreis von 372 Dollar je Unze fiel die Bruttogewinnspanne von 195 auf 163 Dollar je Unze zurück. Der operative Gewinn fiel auf 12 Dollar je Unze, was einem aktuellen KGV von 178,1 entspricht.

Auf der Basis einer jährlichen Produktion von 5 Millionen Unzen liegt die Lebensdauer der Reserven bei 17,2 Jahren und die Lebensdauer der Ressourcen bei 25,6 Jahren. Die Dividendenrendite beträgt 1,1 Prozent. Die Verpflichtungen aus Vorwärtsverkäufen wurden von 15,5 auf 13,9 Millionen Unzen weiter reduziert und decken einen Produktionszeitraum von 2,8 Jahren ab.

Beurteilung: Barrick bleibt mit einem KGV von 178,1 ein uninteressantes nordamerikanisches Standardinvestment mit begrenztem Kurspotential, dürfte aber wegen der Wachstumsperspektiven bei einem Goldpreisanstieg unter den nordamerikanischen Standardwerten das größte Aktienkurspotential aufweisen. Negativ bleiben die hohen unrealisierten Verluste aus den Vorwärtsverkäufen. Wir erhöhen unser maximales Kauflimit von 14 auf 16 Dollar und unser Kursziel von 20 auf 22 Dollar und stufen Barrick als Halteposition ein.

Barrick wird in Deutschland mit den größten Umsätzen in Frankfurt gehandelt. Die WKN lautet 870450.

Siegel Investments ist Herausgeber der Zeitschrift "Goldmarkt". Autor Martin Siegel ist Berater des PEH Q-Goldmines-Fonds.

[ Freitag, 03.09.2004, 09:51 ]