[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.interfax.ru/img/e_logo.gif]
http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/26.html?id_issue=10698769
Finance & Business
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sep 2 2004 10:26AM
Russia's gold, forex reserves at $88.8 bln on August 27
MOSCOW. September 2 (Interfax) - Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves were at $88.8 billion on August 27, up from $88.3 billion on August 20, the Central Bank said in a press release Thursday.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]
Police: Newmont manager is a suspect
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '02-SEP-04 05:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
RENO (Mineweb.com) --Indonesia's National Police Wednesday named as a suspect the manager of waste disposal at PT Newmont Minahasa Raya in the law enforcement agency's investigation of the pollution of Buyat Bay in North Sulawesi, Indonesia.
WEITER.....
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.iii.co.uk/icons/logos/uk_logo.gif]
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=5063206&action=article
Breaking news
2004-09-02 10:38 GMT:
Ridge Mining receives possible bid approach
LONDON (AFX) - Ridge Mining PLC said it notes the recent movement in its share price and announces that it has received an approach which may or may not lead to an offer being made for the company.
slm/
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.miningweekly.co.za/images/min/top/masthead.gif]
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/breaking/?show=56245
02 September 2004
Breaking News
Copper, silver prices buoy Anvil
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Australian Stock Exchange-listed miner Anvil Mining on Tuesday released its annual results for the period ended June 30, 2004, reporting net earnings of $6-million compared to a loss of $0,8-million for the corresponding period last year.
Basic earnings a share increased to 31 cents compared to a loss of four cents a share last year.
In a statement released by the company, Anvil Mining said the results reflect the Dikulushi mine running for a full 12 months compared with only eight months for the previous year, following the commissioning of the mine in September 2002.
“The results also reflect an improvement in both copper and silver prices during the period,” Anvil said.
The realised copper price rose to $0,97 per pound from $0,70 per pound last year, and silver rose to $5,39 per ounce from $4,46 per ounce for the same period last year, which was a reflection of the London Metal Exchange copper price rising to a peak of $1,44 per pound during April 2004, and silver rising to a peak of $8,29 per ounce in the same period.
Anvil said its costs of operations were $16,7-million compared to 2003's figure of $8,5-million, reflecting the full twelve months of operations during 2004 compared with eight months of operations in 2003.
The company attributed the higher average monthly operating costs to increases in transport and labour costs. Transport costs per month have increased, as a result of higher volumes of concentrate being delivered to the smelters in Namibia and South Africa.
“However, the transports costs per ton have actually fallen, owing to lower rates achieved for deliveries to the Palabora smelter in South Africa. Higher labour costs are mainly a result of an increase of approximately one third in the number of employees at the mine site. This was due to increased activity related to minesite infrastructure development in advance of the stage two expansion,” Anvil reported.
The cash inflow from operating activities was $4,6-million or $0,23 per share, up from last year's figure of $0,6-million or $0,04 per share.
“The increase in operating cash inflow is attributable to a full year of production compared with only eight months for the 2003 financial year, as well as the increase in revenue arising from the higher copper and silver prices realised,” Anvil said in its statement.
Operating cash outflows also increased owing to the build-up of ore and concentrate stockpiles, additional inventory of spares and consumables, of $1,2-million, the company said.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
The Gartman Letter
The Gold Bugs are at it again, hyping the gold market on reports of enormous, unsecured, un-hedged short positions in spot gold. GATA and Mr. Veneroso (who we shall admit do enormous amounts of investigation and gather rather copious amounts of data hoping to prove their long standing point that the central bank and Wall Street firms have rigged the gold market against them) are at it again with a new report suggesting that hedging operations undertaken by gold mining firms and/or lending operations undertaken by central banks have left them "short the physical gold that they must return later or repay... and therefore exposed to the risk of higher gold prices when they have to cover." This new report (sent to us over the weekend by several of our clients, so we know that it is sweeping through the gold trading market) suggests that the size of the short position the central banks are exposed to is now "at least 10,000 and possible as much as 16,000 tonnes, implying a short physical position of equal size." They had previously believed that the short position was 5,000, but apparently that was not sufficient to get the bull market they wanted going as swiftly as they had hoped, so they have hyped the short position by 2 or 3 times.
We have no doubt but that the short position in various derivatives, options, futures, forwards, et al dwarfs by a material multiple the amount of gold mined in any one year. We find that bit of information utterly worthless however, for so too is the short position in futures, options, forwards et al in the US grain markets a multiple of the size of the crop grown. The "Gold Bugs" state that the derivatives written are so complex between gold producer and central bank, or between gold producer and end user, that this is creating the growth in the overall size of the derivatives positions, and they use that as evidence of the need to take gold higher... but for the bearish "manipulation" of the central banks and Wall Street firms in their opinion. We shall argue that the complexity of the derivatives is precisely the reason why the derivatives positions have expanded even as hedging activity in the gold market has been reduced since the adoption of the Washington Accord. The derivatives written between producer and central bank two and three years ago, with precise language requiring precise deliveries, qualities and delivery points might be difficult... if not wholly impossible... to unwind easily. Wishing to cover the hedge, those on both sides may chose instead to find coverage via another derivative with another producer or another Wall Street firm... all of whom must then hedge the new exposures they have accepted. We see no reason to doubt that a single rather plain vanilla forward sale of gold done via an OTC derivative might not give rise to 6 or 8 or 10 times as many nominal derivatives by the time the position is fully hedged and one of the participants wants to remove the hedge but cannot do so with the initiating firm. This ramping up of derivatives positions does not mean that someone is caught offside on a trade or that a huge short positions is created, for there is an equal amount of long positions that also must be created.
The Gold Bugs argue that should gold futures move to a backwardation rather than their far more normal contango, then the problems they envision may develop rather quickly. We again shall not argue that that is possible.... albeit rather unlikely so. Gold futures have been in backwardation so infrequently (and indeed, when it has happened, it has happened only in the front and second futures contracts, and then only as deliveries become very concentrated and the participants highly sophisticated) and barring some war-like circumstance that disturbs the delivery mechanism materially, we have trouble perceiving a situation where the market can "go backwardated" for anything beyond a very few days. As we are wont to say, "A problem is not a problem until it is a problem." The GATA et al have been trying vainly to stir up a problem in gold for years; thus far with little success. We suspect this new attempt shall suffer the same fate as their last attempts [Ed. Note: While on the topic of GATA and deliverable supplies of gold, we note that COMEX warehouse stocks of gold have been rising, rather than falling, making GATA's case all the more difficult. From a low of approximately 800,000 troy ounces of gold in the warehouses mid-year last year, warehouse stocks are now very close to 2.0 million oz.]….
-END-
I will let Reg respond (should he decide to do so) to the specifics about much of the derivatives part. I do not even need to go there to prove him a buffoon. Here’s why:
*Gartman studied the report so diligently, he refers to it as a Veneroso/GATA report when the author was Reg Howe with Mike Bolser putting in a great deal of input.
*He states we previously said the gold short position was 5,000 tonnes and that was not good enough. He is right, it is not good enough because it is wrong. It was NEVER GATA’s number. It is the number of Gold Fields Mineral Services, the bullion dealer apologist firm. Our gold loan/swap number was never less than 10,000 tonnes from day one.
*To really demonstrate how clueless this guy is, one of his gold picks has been mega-hedger Barrick, the anti-gold company, which continues to stink up the place:
11:08AM Barrick's 2002 earns est. halved at CSFB (ABX) by Tomi Kilgore Analyst David Christensen at CS First Boston lowered his 2002 earnings forecast for Barrick Gold (ABX for the second time in three weeks, citing continued higher operating and non-cash costs at certain mines, a higher level of ongoing administrative costs and a stronger Australian dollar. He cut his forecast to 16 cents a share from 32 cents, after lowering it from 38 cents on Nov. 26. He maintained his "outperform" rating on the stock, given that its long-term growth expectations remain intact, but lowered his price target to $17.25 from $19. The stock is shedding 47 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $14.77.
(CBS Marketwatch http://www.bigcharts.com )
They can’t seem to do anything right these days. Same comment from me: why would any serious gold investor own this dog? A couple of years ago, Barrick Gold’s share price was around that of Newmont. Today, it closed $11.39 under Newmont. What kind of a premium do you think Newmont will go over Barrick (down 49 cents to $14.75) when gold takes out $330? What do you root for as a Barrick shareholder: for the price to go down (so that your massive hedges make money), or up (which eventually could blow up that same hedge book)? Good grief, what a lemon!
*Gartman says the rising warehouse stocks to 2 million ounces hurts GATA’s case. More inanity. The Comex warehouse stocks were 792,000 ounces on September 22, 2001. Gold made a low after Sep. 11 of around $273 per ounce in November of that year. Gold rose $54 per ounce while the warehouse stocks rose to over 2 million ounces. It is an irrelevant number. Furthermore:
He makes a big deal about this 2 million ounces of Comex stocks. But that is only 62 tonnes!?!? Now how is 62 tonnes going to make even a dent in a multi-thousand tonne short position? The Comex stocks are a red herring irrelevant to the real issue.
*Gartman says "...the short position in futures, options, forwards et al in the US grain markets [are] a multiple of the size of the crop grown." This is just plain wrong and to my mind demonstrates no understanding of the principle of hedging. For example, US corn production in 2001 was 9.5 billion bushels.
http://jan.mannlib.cornell.edu…/pcp-bb/2001/crop1201.txt
But corn open interest is 450,000 contracts (5,000 bu. per contract). Therefore, corn O.I. is only 24% of production. If you add in the delta-hedged value of the options as well as the forwards, the short position is probably not more than 50% of production. Moreover, even 50% of production is probably an overstatement because a lot of foreign firms use the US futures markets for hedging. If it were a "multiple of the size of the crop grown," the CFTC would be apoplectic because of the possibility of market manipulation and/or a short squeeze.
Gartman's statement saying that outstanding shorts are a multiple of crop size further demonstrates no understanding of hedging. Think about his statement a minute. Let's assume the short position was just twice production (and not a multiple thereof as he claims). In addition, the longs realized that the shorts were short more than production. How would the shorts deliver? The longs could force a monumental short squeeze.
*He misunderstands the whole point about backwardation. It occurs when the market is under severe stress. And in a crisis, it can happen for a long time. In a crisis, unprecedented events happen. For example, in the late 1970's US dollar crisis, who foresaw that Swiss franc interest rates would go negative? To say that gold cannot go into prolonged backwardation just because it hasn't happened so far is a weak line of reasoning that not only ignores from history that unexpected events do indeed happen, it also ignores any understanding about the undue stress now prevailing in the gold market.
I could go on, but what's the point? I am embarrassed for Gartman, who does have a decent following. His comments demonstrate so little understanding about markets. While it is fun to laugh at this sorry soul, it is great news to receive even more confirmation how Reg and Mike’s work is spreading all over the place. That is key. Contrary to Gartman’s pitiful disinformation commentary, a former chief gold dealer of a major bullion house called to tell me the Howe/Bolser report was absolutely brilliant. That is what is important, not this foolishness.
Oh yes, Dennis Gartman’s phone number and email address:
757 238 9346
E-mail: dennis@thegartmanletter.com
-END-
OK, so why go into all of this now. Simple answer! Dennis Gartman, of all people, has been invited to be a guest speaker at the latest LBMA Conference at the Shangri-La Hotel in Shanghai next week. The LBMA and its members will not deal with the GATA camp in any way yet invite a guy to speak who is mostly clueless about gold. Naturally, this has to be the reason he was chosen.
Unbelievably, Gartman just learned about the Daughters of Gwalia mess, days after the company blew up. Yeah, this guy is really on top of the gold scene.
September 1, 2004 The Gartman Letter excerpts:
Finally, the strength in gold had one other major impetus in the past thirty six hours, which quite honestly we missed: a not-so-minor Australian gold mining company, the Sons of Gwalia, has gone into what we would call in the US "receivership" or "Chapter 11 bankruptcy," but which in Australia is called "administration" following its disclosure earlier this week that it had erred in its hedge account rather archly….
The decision has left Citibank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Dresdner Bank, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the ANZ Bank and HSBC (all clients of ours) in a tenable, but clearly uncomfortable position. Further, it was only a short while ago that Franklin Resources, the large mutual fund, and Teck Cominco, the mining company, in difficult positions also, for both had taken large positions in "Son's" shares over time and again rather recently. We shall obviously learn more about this next week when we are in Shanghai to speak for the LBMA.
-END-
So Gartman’s clients just happen to include the players in The Gold Cartel (along with Barrick Gold). What can we say? This is what the neanderthal gold establishment world deserves! Wonder how Gartman will deal with The Daughters blow-up which GATA predicted years ago and how he will explain how the gold derivatives are not going down even though hedgers have substantially reduced their positions by some 1500 tonnes since his inane comments in December 2002. The LBMA deserves a speaker like Gartman. They have invited the blind to speak to those who want to keep everyone else blind! When the gold market blows up all these phonies will have a lot of answering to do.
A few staunch GATA supporters/Café members are wondering what GATA is up to regarding the Sprott Asset Management Special Report, "NOT FREE, NOT FAIR: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price."
First, we are waiting to hear from the financial market/gold press and the gold industry itself. Thus far the silence is deafening, which is par for the course and exactly what GATA expected. Although I understand ONE visible Canadian newspaper will be dealing with the report very shortly. ONE potentially reasoned story so far out of all the Canadian, US and European press who were supplied with the report. This will give you some idea what GATA has been up against for more than five years and is proof the mainstream financial market press is controlled. What other explanation can there be for this superb and unchallenged effort by Sprott not to be covered by most everyone?
Through a highly regarded contact, GATA tried to set up a meeting with a well known gold producer CEO. Result: after a week he still had not read the Sprott report, won’t meet with me and does not want to discuss the gold price manipulation issue. Even so, GATA intends to contact the major gold companies and we hope you will also in time. More on this to come.
Meanwhile, GATA has been working behind the scenes on several fronts, not the least of which is preparing for a GATA luncheon at the New Orleans Investment Conference on Sunday, November 14. Details on that out shortly. I will be giving a presentation in Toronto on October 4th at the Convention Center as part of Joe Martin’s conference, his first in that fine city. Then there have been some radio interviews, etc. It adds up time-wise. Chris Powell and I have full time jobs. All the GATA effort is additional work after what we need to do to make a living. To pull off a major effort with the press/gold producers in the weeks ahead, we are going to need your help.
The following email to a gold producer CEO says it all:
TO: XYZ, CEO
FROM: MARILYN A. G, SHAREHOLDER
Mr. XYZ, I have a great deal of respect for your acumen, so rather than address any other mining concern, I come to you with this important question: Why do mining companies sit back and let the gold cartel suppress the price of gold and never raise even the tiniest voice in complaint? One would think with all you have at stake, your voices would be the most vociferous. Are you afraid of government reprisals?
I just can't come to terms with that sort of cowardice, as you CEOs have to know what GATA knows, brought to light recently with the Sprott Report. And you just sit back and let it happen? Year after year after year?
Why?
In this regard, GATA would love to review some of the questions you are posing to gold companies and to the press. Please don’t just send them to us. We need you to act first and copy us. There is only so much time Chris Powell and I have to work on all of this - with no administrative staff to assist us.
Here is another thought. Please contract the precious metals analyst at the firm you might deal with and ask them if they have read the Sprott report and then ask for DETAILED responses. It is not good enough for them to render some half-ass opinion without back-up. Then I would suggest asking them how they are bringing this report to their client’s attention. Some firms which come to mind are Cannacord and Nesbitt Burns.
One of your fellow Cafe members put it this way:
Bill, I wonder what kind of responses (if any) to John Embry’s report, gold-share investors are getting from their stock-broker’s respective mining analyst research departments. After evaluating the comprehensive assessment of this cooked market, especially from such a highly respected money manager, you’d think the big firms would be falling over backwards to protect themselves by warning their clients of the newly identified risks associated with gold-share investing.
If no one has been advised, does this suggest complete disbelief, an addiction to mediocrity, or just fear of looking fringy? I wonder how fast such advisement will appear when the systems cracks really start to widen. Maybe investors should press their “investment advisors” for an analysis of these “postulated” risks associated with the gold sector, just to have them on record for future reference.
Buena Fe
Food for thought:
Hello Bill,
I thought maybe your readers may find this of some interest. I hold a sizable amount of Kinross Gold in my portfolio and recently increased my position on margin because I feel that an explosion in the gold market is imminent. This morning I received a call from my brokers TD Waterhouse that I have a margin call. I was shocked because I watch my investments very closely and try to avoid margin calls. I contacted the brokers and low and behold they readjusted the margin requirements on Kinross at yesterday's market close. If you look at Kinross' chart you will see that it is on the verge of exploding to the upside. I wondered why in the world would this brokergae house adjust margin requirements just at this point in time. I did some further investigation and found the following not to my great surprise.
The short positions outstanding on Kinross
New York Stock Exchange.....4.27 Million as of August 9th
Toronto Stock Exchange 12.47 Million as of Mid August.
Now if you check Kinross' daily volume it has not had many days over 1 million shares traded. It seems the Wall Street Brokers have many friends to help out in the Gold Wars. Just sickening! Maybe after today's market behavior the shorts on Kinross will be taken to the cleaners before I need to cover on the margin call. It certainly looks like something is cooking in GoldLand.
Another Big Law Suit on Wall Street and the SEC...you should check it out. Not much is being told to the average investor in America!
BANK ACTIVITIES REFORM COMMISSION GEARS UP FOR $5 TRILLION US GOVERNMENT SUIT
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2003/12/prweb92210.htm
Keep up the GREAT work Bill.
Saul M
The gold shares firmed up late in the day with the XAU rising .54 to 95.33 and the HUI picking up .26 to 207.65. Meanwhile, the sickening cabal took gold down $1.50 as soon as the Access market opened, even though oil soared and the euro closed higher. Their huffing and puffing seems to be never-ending. Clearly, they are going to have to be blown out of the water for gold and silver to go nuts and that JUST MIGHT HAPPEN!!!!!!
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
The DOW only fell 5 to 10,169, while the DOG gained 12 to 1850.
After dropping more than $8 per barrel in less than two weeks, oil rebounded following some bullish inventory news:
10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories (4.2M) barrels vs. consensus (400K) barrels
Gasoline inventories +900K barrels vs. consensus (1.05M) barrels, while distillate inventories +1.3M barrels vs. consensus +1M barrels. Oct. crude is trading higher to $42.80 in initial reaction.
* * * * *
10:32 API reports crude oil inventories (8.1M) barrels
Gasoline inventories +2.2M barrels, while distillate inventories +2.2M barrels. Oct. continues to rally; last quoted at $42.90/barrel.
* * * * *
Crude oil closed at $44, up $1.88 per barrel. Cheap oil? NOPE!
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve today added $4.25B in temps today September1rst 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to stay very high at $57.012B. There are two MAJOR events in today's brief commentary:
First, the Fed has an enormous expiration of $24.5Billion set for tomorrow that nicely coincides with the peak of the Republican Convention and my long expected launch date for a DOW recovery. The massive expiration means that the Fed will issue a similar amount of repos in the AM, leaving around $50B in intra-day repos added to the EXISTING repo pool of $57Billion Thus we may see an intra-day total of over $100Billion available for primary dealer actions. I will let you decide if this mountain of money is just a coincidence.
Second, Mexico has just announced an oil resource study that doubles its petroleum reserves to over that of Iran. Before you run out and buy a fourth SUV, the first on stream effects of this will be six years away.
I'm pasting the complete story for the following energy piece because its VERY important:
Large [Mexico] oil reserves found
BY NOÉ CRUZ SERRANO/EL UNIVERSAL
El Universal
Lunes 30 de agosto de 2004
Nuestro mundo, página 2
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/…imprimir?id_nota=6110&tab
la=miami
Three years of exploration has enabled Pemex to map oilfields that the state-owned oil monopoly believes will more than double the nation's known crude oil reserves.
Luis Ramírez Corzo, Pemex's director for exploration, told EL UNIVERSAL that on a "conservative" estimate, almost 54 billion barrels lie underneath the oilfields. That would take Mexico's reserves to 102 billion barrels, more than the United Arab Emirates (which has reserves of 97.8 billion barrels), Kuwait (94 billion) and Iran (89.7 billion), and almost as much as Iraq (112.5 billion).
The official also said the discovery could enable Pemex to increase Mexico's oil production from the current level of 4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 7 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia currently produces 7.5 million bpd, while Russia's oil output is 7.4 million bpd.
Ramírez Corzo said the exploration, at an investment of US4.6 billion, led to the identification of seven separate blocks rich in oil and natural gas. The most promising blocks are under water in the Gulf of Mexico, thought to contain around 45 billion barrels.
"That's the good news," Ramírez Corzo said. "The bad is that owing to the complexity of the technology needed to exploit the oilfields and the levels of investment required, (Pemex) can't go it alone."
He said Pemex will prepare special "alliance contracts" to attract the involvement of multi-national corporations with capital to invest and the most up-to-date deep sea oil extraction technology.
Similar "multiple service contracts," which Pemex has used to attract foreign capital to extract natural gas from the northern Burgos Basin, have met with legal challenges by opposition lawmakers. Under Mexico's Constitution, exploration and exploitation of the nation's energy resources is the exclusive preserve of the state.
The contracts would maintain Mexican ownership of the oil while allowing the multi-nationals a return on their investment to extract the resources from under the sea, Ramírez Corzo said.
© 2004 Copyright El Universal-El Universal Online
++++++++++++++++++++++
There will be a seismic event tomorrow based only on the presence of over $100 Billion in intra-day repo pool funds. I'm betting the event will launch the DOW.
Mike
From The King Report late last evening:
Anyone paying attention to the technical picture of stocks has to be extremely concerned that the major indices are faltering after approaching but not touching (let alone besting) downward-sloping 200-day moving averages. This pattern portends big trouble, but the current configuration is even more ominous because any significant decline that now materializes would be the fourth important decline in 2004. And the 200-day moving averages are now downward sloping or flat (DJIA). The three previous ’04 declines had positive sloping 200-day moving averages – the long-term trend then was positive. Exacerbating the decaying technicals is the seasonable horrendous period of September and October has arrived. PS – If we recall correctly, the presidential election year pattern has a summer rally before the classic autumn fall.
-END-
Gold demand news:
Globally investment in gold went up by 44 per cent during first half of 2004 in comparison to same period previous year, in India it has been about 35 per cent.
KOLKATA, DHNS:
Demand of yellow metal in India has been on the upswing and registered 20 per cent rise in the first half of the calendar year compared to the growth during same period last year even as gold remained firm in the Asian market, sources quoting World Gold Council said.
The Council, which analysed the consumption and demand pattern in India in the past six months, said in its report that quantity-wise, it has registered a ten per cent hike compared to the same period previous year. Internationally, spot gold traded at $403/404 per ounce after touching a peak of $404.75. Prices fell by nearly four dollar an ounce after dollar appreciated against other currencies. According to market analysts, gold prices may rule firm following crashes of two Russian passenger aircraft last week.
http://www.deccanherald.com/deccanherald/sep012004/b10.asp
-END-
More gold demand news from MENAFN - Middle East North Africa Financial Network
(And here it is...Arab nations buying gold. They bought $1.253 billion in gold (87.2 tons) between April and July of 2004.
If they continue this for the year 2004, it will amount to roughly $5 billion in gold purchases, which is approx 348 tons. I did the math, 348 tons is roughly twelve million, two hundred seventy five thousand (12,275,000+) ounces of gold annualized for the year 2004!!!)
"The director general of World Bullion Council for Middle East, Turkey and Pakistan attributed this growth to several factors, including the rise in the price of oil during the last two years as well as increase in both sales and consumption. There has been substantial increase in using gold as a means of investment.
It is noteworthy that many people resorted to amassing gold to avoid risks of losing their wealth due to several factors, including inflation. This also resulted in increasing the price of gold in the international market."
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=62187
-END-
Argentina is thumbing its nose at the IMF and its request:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3613512.stm
Protests at IMF Argentina talks
………"Mr Rato urged Argentina to set aside more cash for debt payments.
But Mr Kirchner told the IMF head that it was highly unlikely Argentina would be setting aside more money to pay towards its defaulted debt."……………
***
Gold producer high grading:
Bill,
Although it hasn’t been talked about a lot lately, in the past you told us about how gold companies have high-graded their deposits — a tactic that would later lead to lower mine output. Well, later is here. How much of the production shortfall at Sons of Gwalia is a result of past high-grading? Combine high-grading and hedging and how long will it be before another gold company goes belly up? This could turn out to be more than a one-off event, but rather the first in a series. In the meantime the Lalors, who created the Sons of Gwalia mess, abandoned ship before the rest of the crew knew there was a leak.
GATA know the truth!
Best wishes,
Peter R.
There is nothing wrong with investment firms trading on market developments, ones which they become privy to in their normal course of business. However, it is an outrage if they operate for their own accounts in one manner and deal with clients, whom they advise, in another. This is just what the Wall Street internet scandals were all about 4 years ago.
It is also an outrage if these same firms are manipulating a cash price one way (in violation of US anti-trust laws) and then maneuvering their stock portfolios at the same time in concerted fashion, knowing the gold price manipulation itself is affecting the trading decisions of the unsuspecting public (like we saw late Friday afternoon).
It is with great pleasure and disgust that I am able to present the following to you from a fellow Café member:
Hi Bill
Just for a bit of self-education, I thought I’d look up the recent Official Change in Substantial Holdings Notices from the Australian Stock Exchange. If you would like to look into this further, you can go directly to their listings at:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/stat…ameSearchType=Y&year=2004
It’s a shame you (and John Embry) have got this manipulation thing all wrong. It is obviously merely coincidence that Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan etc sold their holdings in Sons Of Gwalia a mere few weeks before the receivers were called in. What could you guys have been thinking? J
I’ve attached a few, just to prove my point. But, I feel absolutely certain that these fine Financial Institutions hold all precious metal bugs and the sanctity of Gold and Silver in the highest esteem.
Cheers
Phillip
These links will save you time for those interested in pursuing this:
Wellington.pdf
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Wellington.pdf
NAB.pdf
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/NAB.pdf
JPMorgan.pdf
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/JPMorgan.pdf
GoldmanSachs-JBWere.pdf
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com…4/GoldmanSachs-JBwere.pdf
GoldmanSachs.pdf
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/GoldmanSachs.pdf
Templeton.pdf
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Templeton.pdf
This morning I learned the LBMA will not send a copy of the Bank of Russia speech (in Russian) given on June 4th at their convention in Moscow to a London metals reporter doing a story on GATA and the gold market. The speech was given by Deputy Chairman Oleg V. Mozhayskov. They refused to do so even though the presentation was handed out to all the attendees. Can’t ever recall anything happening like this before. We are not talking about state secrets here. Of course, The Gold Cartel, the BIS and IMF have done all they can to keep the gold truth from reaching the investment world. What did Jack Nicholson say in the movie, "A Few Good Men?" "You can’t handle the truth!" As we already know, this is what GATA is dealing with. We are doing all we can to get the gold truth out there and The Gold Cartel and allies in the establishment are doing all they can to suppress that truth. What other explanation can there by for not sending on a speech which was handed out?
The Gold Cartel and financial market establishment refuses to deal with the Sprott Special Report on gold. They won’t even comment on the superb effort of Sprott Asset Management. To have the Russian Central Bank agreeing with Sprott and saying GATA is correct has to be too much for the LBMA and their members to bear. These people are more than pitiful, which brings me to another one of their disingenuous, sad-sack cronies, Dennis Gartman, who produces the well-followed Gartman Letter.
Veteran Café members will remember the abuse Gartman threw our way 3 to 5 ½ years ago. Following is commentary from various MIDAS’ over that period of time. Oh yes, there is a very constructive purpose in covering these blasts from the past and bringing them to your attention.
From a very old MIDAS, including commentary from GATA supporter Harry Schultz about Gartman, followed by additional MIDAS commentary:
April 23, 1999
For more information about the Harry Schultz newsletter write: HSL, P O Box 622, CH - 1001, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Harry Shultz be for us. Gold Field Mineral Services and Gartman be against us. From today's Gartman letter
"Finally, we note that Gold Field Mineral Services Ltd., perhaps the most influential research group in the precious metals' industry, has openly condemned the proposed suit and investigation against the US government and the world's largest gold trading organizations that the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) is proceeding with as composes of "rather exaggerated ideas." We concur completely."
We are curious as to why Mr. Gartman says what he says. He never called to talk to us. It is news to us that GFMS condemned us.
But another gold institution did in a way. In Nevada's Elko Free Press- April 21 - quotes from Gold and Silver Institute President, John Lutley after saying he did not think we could prove our case: " I think they're nuts, and people who give them money will lose it…. It's easy to make accusations and I'm not surprised they got a law firm. They're suing people with deep pockets….
-END-
July 8, 1999
The strangest commentary came from the highly regarded Gartman Letter. This is what Mr. Gartman had to say today:
"Finally, Her Majesty's government in the UK responded to reports made by a Tory member of Parliament (Mr Quentin Davies) that the Bank of England's gold auction was done primarily to "save the bacon of firms that are running…short positions" in the gold derivatives markets. The Treasury's spokeswoman, Ms Patricia Hewitt, called such report "nonsense…and wild rumours." We've no doubt that several firms are indeed quite heavily short of gold, including Goldman Sachs (having inherited a short position from Long Term Capital Management) and Barrick (having accumulated a large short position over the past several years to hedge its gold production going forward); however, this is the UK we're talking about, and not the former governments in Nigeria, or Indonesia or Cameroon where corruption is rampant. We may be naïve, but we find it preposterous to believe that an MP would even broad the subject on the floor of the Parliament. We congratulate HM's government for putting the rumours to rest swiftly and succinctly.
An open letter to Mr. Gartman,
From Bill Murphy, Gold Anti Trust Action Committee Chairman
Dear Mr. Gartman,
You have told your readership that GFMS condemned our investigation into the manipulation of the gold market and that you agreed with their condemnation. Do you also condemn Newmont Mining, Homestake, Ashanti, Placer Dome, Gold Fields and Anglogold for "demanding" a similar investigation?
Part of our investigation is trying to determine if Long Term Capital Management was let out of a "borrowed gold position" in an off market "rigged" transaction. That could very well be a violation of anti-trust laws. And of all people, you say in your own commentary that such a transaction has occurred. What gives?
And finally, what did you expect Her Majesty's government to say from the get-go? Oh, yes the sale is part of some sort of collusive activity! Do you recall President Nixon, " I am not a crook" or President Clinton "wagging his finger" denying any Monica Lewinsky involvement? Did you believe them too? Remember the embarrassed grin on former Clinton Press Secretary, Mike Mc Crary?
You have a very good reputation, but you sure are missing the boat on this one.
If you care, it would be my pleasure to get you up to speed and explain to you a good bit of what we know is going on here and will start by sending you this Midas. You might also like to know that I spoke with a major gold producer today and they are in "battle station mode." That letter to Prime Minister Blair was not sent to the head of state of England with nothing to back it up. The CEO's that sent the letter are very conservative people and very proper. You can be sure that was just a warning salvo; ie, "do something about the mess you have created or face the consequences". Along that line, Prime Minister Blair cancelled a 3 day overseas trip today to "work on the Northern Ireland problem." As far as I know the Northern Ireland problem has been around awhile. Perhaps, Mr. Blair has another, new big problem to deal with.
All the best,
Bill Murphy
July 13, 1999 with gold at $255:
Received a phone call from Dennis Gartman, of the highly regarded Gartman Letter, yesterday. He wanted to know our side of the gold manipulation story as he told his subscribers he would hear out GATA's position and he did. Dennis could not have been more professional and courteous - a delight to talk to. Naturally, we still disagree but the air has been cleared. He did say the day gold comes in $10 higher and closes $15 higher, he is a big buyer. That would signify to him that the shorts had finally lost control of the market and had handed it over to the bulls.
(9/1/04 – He never did say what he said what he would do in his Letter to clarify the air! He lied!)
Flash forward, years later:
December 10, 2002 - Gold $323.40 down $2.10 - Silver $4.60 unchanged
CRB Closes In Multi-Year High Ground / Arrogant Nitwit Attacks GATA Again
Dennis Gartman, the well known newsletter writer, is an arrogant nitwit. He came out attacking GATA right after we received our first publicity years ago. What he stated at the time was false, so I called him on the phone to let him know why. He told me he would make amends in his next letter. He lied. He never did.
Now, he has come out attacking GATA once again with more drivel. It is extraordinary how many in the mainstream investment world assault GATA when they have no idea what they are talking about and have not even bothered to do their homework regarding our comprehensive evidence of the manipulation of the gold price. They seem to get their jollies from siding with the mainstream bullion bank to demonstrate how "cool" they are and how much they are on message discipline when it comes to outsiders.
His latest garbage:
Tuesday, December 10, 2002
Gartman
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
The John Brimelow Report
Impasse
Tuesday, September 1 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.40, PM $6.61, with world gold at $409.30 and $408.50. Well above legal import point.
TOCOM lacked inspiration. Volume fell 19% to the equivalent of 17,911 Comex lots. The active contract closed unchanged and world gold went out down 25c. Open interest rose the equivalent of 235 Comex lots. (NY yesterday traded 50,219 contracts; open interest rose 1,394 contracts.)
Gold seems to be at impasse. The Bears would love to knock it down, on the concept that the alleged Sons of Gwalia covering is finished. Clearly they are being frustrated by steady physical offtake. On the other hand, the ready seller of the past week or so has intimidated the Bulls.
JB
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
September 1 - Gold $408.30 down $1.20 – Silver $6.78 up 3 cents
Impasse / The "Arrogant Nitwit" Dennis Gartman On To China For The LBMA
ZitatIn this age of loony leaders
And blatant tommyrot,
Do you feel you can distinguish
Hussein and who is not?...
Erik Barnouw; Pepper...and Salt; The Wall Street Journal (New York), Mar 7, 1991.
I will leave it for you to decide if this quote is referring to the gold producer CEO’s, or the LBMA, who refuse to deal with the most important issue in their industry, that being the orchestrated suppression of the price of gold.
This morning a colleague said he was waiting for the ISM number to come out to give some direction for the day to the dollar and gold. I laughed, promptly saying it didn’t matter what the numbers were. All that counted was what The Gold Cartel was up to and how strong the physical market buying was to thwart their expected assault on the price to keep it away from closing above $410.
Yesterday was a giveaway the cabal is digging in. If the euro can soar 1.21 and gold is not allowed to even close more than $2 higher on the session, what could we expect for a mere mortal trading session like today ought to be?
Sure enough, the economic numbers all were modestly disappointing, as has been the case time and time again over the past number of weeks. With the PPT and Gold Cartel waiting in the wings to go into action, they proved to be meaningless, as predicted. Can’t have the stock market cratering and gold going up with the Republican rah-rah convention going on in New York.
The numbers:
10:00 July Construction spending reported 0.4% vs. consensus 0.4%
Prior reading revised to 0% from (0.3%).
* * * * *
10:01 August ISM Manufacturing reported 59 vs. consensus 60%
Prior reading was 62.
* * * * *
10:03 August ISM Prices Paid reported 81.5 vs. consensus 79
Prior reading was 77.
* * * * *
Manufacturing activity was less than expected and inflation higher than expected. True, the variances from expectations were no big deal. However, when you take into account so many of the numbers have been worse than anticipated, you would think they might register to some degree. After all, the effect of the tax cuts, low interest rates and major government stimulus of years past is BEHIND us. Why should anyone think the numbers will improve from here on in?
It didn’t take long for Houston’s Dan Norcini to put it all in perspective:
Hi Bill:
Ya gotta love this headline that came down the wire feed this morning:
DJ WSJ.COM: US Stocks Up; Economic Data Lower Than Expected
Anyone who can spin this one must be a distant cousin to Goebbels.
ISM came in weak and shows the exact same trend as the previous month especially in regards to the critical employment number - weaker employment figures than the previous month. To me this is the beginning of a trend and not a one time aberration or "soft patch" as "Speaks with Forked Tongue" Greenspan has declared.
It is going to be interesting to see what kind of numbers these guys pull out of the hat for the biggie jobs report.
Best,
Dan
As far as gold goes, the Gold Cartel script was followed to a tee by the crooks. The euro rose .17 to 121.86, while the dollar fell .04 to 88.92. Impact on the gold price? Zip, unless you believe a stronger euro is bearish for gold these days. That makes sense based on the recent price action. All kidding aside, you can be sure if the euro was hit hard today, gold would have been slaughtered.
Here’s more bearish news for gold. The CRB held support in the mid 260’s for months and has now broken out to the upside. Regard:
November CRB
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/B4
CRB Weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/W
The spot CRB closed at 279.85, up 3.35.
All gold rallies were sat on by the cabal, led by Morgan Stanley, which was also the major seller in silver. However, silver bucked the gold trend all day long as small support emerged from Republic and JP Morgan Chase.
The gold open interest rose 1394 contracts to 269,575, while the silver open interest fell 1169 contracts to 95,230.
The Gold Cartel is huffing and puffing like mad trying to blow the gold house down. Meanwhile, the gold fundamentals are "10+++++." Odds are becoming increasingly favorable they are going to FAIL (much to their consternation). It seems to me gold and silver are biding their time and preparing for major advances from these levels!
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.telegraphindia.com/images/logo_new.gif]
http://www.telegraphindia.com/…usiness/story_3706527.asp
The Midas touch of gold charms investors
SATISH JOHN
Mumbai, Sept.1:
Indians buy Rs 40,000 crore worth gold every year in the form of jewellery and investments, according to the World Gold Council. The total holding of the yellow metal in the country stands at 13,000 tonnes worth Rs 6,60,000 crore.
A part of the annual buying comes from housewives stowing away money in monthly instalments with the local jeweller. Their purchase aggregate Rs 4,000 crore every year, managing director Sanjeev Agarwal said.
Many jewellers cater to the growing demand by offering gold chit schemes that allow the customer to buy gold ornaments or coins from the same dealer for a consolidated amount paid in instalments.
Zitat“Housewives save over Rs 4,000 crore every year in recurring deposits to buy gold jewellery, and all of it is done outside the banking sector,” said Agarwal.
The council said India, the US, West Asia, Japan and China account for 55 per cent of the global gold purchase. The annual buying of Rs 40,000 crore comprises mostly new gold that is imported, which accounts for 600 tonnes valued at Rs 36,000 crore, while 200 tonnes is recycled.
The gold held in the country roughly equals Rs 6,00,000 crore saved in banks and Rs 60,000 crore in mutual funds.
According to Agarwal, household savings of Rs 50,000 crore are held as gold bars and coins.
India buys 80-100 tonnes of gold bars and coins amounting to Rs 6000 crore every year. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Board of India and NCAER indicated in a joint study that after bank deposits, gold was the second most preferred savings instrument.
World Gold Council, an association that promotes the usage of the yellow metal, has been advocating that gold as an investment option is “superior to other alternative asset classes”.
It can be a currency hedge during volatile times and an effective guard against inflation. While gold prices have skyrocketed in the recent past, all investments give a true return over long term, Agarwal said. “It is the only universal asset with no geographical, religious or socio-economic boundaries,” he added.
“The performance of gold is not linked to that of any other company, industry or government and acts as an insurance against the uncertainties of different currencies, due to its inverse relationship with the dollar,” he said.
The council has been advocating that an investment portfolio with an allocation in gold improves the consistency of performance during both stable and unstable times.
The council has been pleading with the government authorities to reduce customs duties and allow banks to offer gold loans to local jewellers.
The council’s argument has been that jewellers consume over Rs 35,000 crore gold every year.
"Never before has the world’s dominant economic power lived this far beyond its means. Most believe that America is special -- that it deserves special dispensation from current account, debt, and saving adjustments. Just as history is littered with the remnants of other such new paradigms, I continue to believe that the United States will have to pay a steep price for its imbalances. As America’s twin deficits move inexorably toward the flashpoint, there is a growing risk that its external financing terms could take a sudden turn for the worse. The dollar, US equities, and credit markets strike me as most vulnerable to such a development."
Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's chief economist
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/images/ccnlogo.gif]
http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0831039n.html
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www2.cdn-news.com/datab…000/SeabridgeGoldLogo.gif]
SEABRIDGE GOLD INC.
TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: SEA
AMEX SYMBOL: SA
AUGUST 31, 2004 - 10:08 ET
Seabridge Gold Secures $2.25 Million Flow-Through Financing
[Blockierte Grafik: http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/fi/main4.gif]
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040831/minerals_norilsk_gold_3.html
Reuters
Norilsk to inject $500 mln into gold unit
Tuesday August 31, 11:32 am ET
By Yelena Smirnova and Maria Golovnina
MOSCOW, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Russia's Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.RTS) will inject half a billion dollars into its gold business to help prepare for a battle for a huge gold mine in Siberia, a senior official said on Tuesday.
Norilsk is one of the contenders for rights to develop Sukhoi Log, Eurasia's biggest untapped gold deposit with more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in reserves. Officials have pledged to unveil tender terms in September after years of delays.
Yevgeny Ivanov, head of Norilsk gold unit Polyus, told Reuters the unit would raise $500 million by issuing new shares in a private placement to be taken up by Norilsk. He would not say how Norilsk planned to fund the high-profile transaction.
"If the Sukhoi Log tender is announced this year, we would take part, and this (Sukhoi Log) is one of the targets for our investment," he said in a telephone interview.
Almost a dozen domestic and foreign companies are expected to bid, including Canada's Barrick Gold (Toronto:ABX.TO - News) and Britain's Highland Gold Mining (London:HGM.L - News). Insiders say Norilsk, with its aggressive gold expansion policy, is the most likely winner.
Sukhoi's development costs are estimated at over $1 billion.
Norilsk said this month it had no immediate plans to raise funds on the capital market after receiving speculative-grade credit ratings from Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Services.
Ivanov said Polyus was also considering other expansion projects, including modernisation of existing operations.
Norilsk -- also the world's top nickel and palladium producer -- is Russia's biggest gold company. It owns 20 percent of the world's No. 4 gold company, Gold Fields Ltd. (GFIJ.J), after paying $1.16 billion for the interest in March.
Last year Norilsk produced about 40 tonnes of gold, and it hopes to gradually boost output through expansion and mining.
"We have many projects, including a very serious one in the Magadan region," Ivanov said, adding that investment into additional gold exploration at the huge Natalkinskoye mine would be at least $50 million.
"That's where part of the money (raised through the new share issue) would go," he said.
Preliminary studies at Natalkinskoye showed the deposit could have reserves of up to 1,500 tonnes of gold -- huge even compared with Sukhoi Log's reserves. Natalkinskoye ore has gold content of about 1.5 grams per tonne.
It requires, according to some estimates, total investment of up to $500 million.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smh.com.au/images/masthead_logo.gif]
http://www.smh.com.au/text/art…921251.html?oneclick=true
ASX demands answers about Gwalia reserves
Date: September 1 2004
By James Chessell
The "serious deterioration" of Sons of Gwalia's gold reserves has attracted the attention of corporate regulators who have questioned the Perth mining group a day after it called in administrators with liabilities expected to reach almost $800 million.
An inquiry by the Australian Stock Exchange yesterday comes amid allegations Gwalia's previous management overstated gold reserves and on the same day WMC Resources chief Andrew Michelmore indicated he would be prepared to run the ruler over Gwalia's less problematic tantalum operations should they become available.
"There are clearly some matters that warrant inquiry with regard to disclosure and the ASX is examining this at the moment," an exchange spokesman said.
"There are two issues involved: namely what has changed from the previous situation and at what point did the company become aware of this, as clearly the ASX wants to ensure that the market was fully informed".
Gwalia called in administrators Ferrier Hodgson on Sunday when a group of creditor banks refused to agree on a standstill on debt payments after a review found it would not be able to produce enough gold to meet hedge commitments.
The review revealed reserves at Gwalia's Marvel Loch operation could not be economically mined, leaving the company short by an estimated 1 million ounces.
Earlier yesterday, Gwalia's administrator, Andrew Love of Ferrier Hodgson, said he would "not be surprised" if the company, which the market valued at almost $190 million before its shares were suspended, received a letter from the exchange.
It is understood the Australian Securities and Investment Commission is also monitoring the situation.
Gwalia chairman Neil Hamilton - part of a board and management change that took over from the company's founding Lalor brothers in April - suggested investors had a right to question previous management.
"People will want some answers," he said.
Gwalia's administrators are expected to attempt to sell the gold assets, leaving the company as a pure tantalum play that is expected to attract the interest of the likes of Iluka Resources.
Speaking after a lunch in Sydney yesterday, WMC's Mr Michelmore said he would be interested. "I think from what we've seen of the business they have a very good position in tantalum and it appears to be one of those long-life assets," he said.
Canadian mining house Teck Cominco said it would make a provision of $C52 million ($56.5 million) on its 9 per cent shareholding in the company.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]
http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/345005.htm
DRD extends sixty-day review at Blyvoor
By: Gareth Tredway
Posted: '01-SEP-04 17:03' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD), the JSE-listed gold producer, has extended its sixty-day review at its Blyvooruitzicht mine in Carletonville by two weeks, as negotiations still continue. The new end date is now September 13.
“We are still negotiating,” said Ilja Graulich, a spokesman at the company.
At its quarterly results presentation in August, Ian Murray, DRD’s chief executive, said that new management, including Michael Marriot, who has been appointed head of South African operations, would work out a way to restore Blyvoor to profits.
A sixty-day review is a statutory step the company must take, before it can legally retrench workers. Over the sixty days, different stakeholders in the mine negotiate means of restoring the mine to profitability.
The mine made a quarterly operating loss of $3.9 million and produced 10 percent less gold in the quarter to end-June.
The mine produced 51,087 ounces of gold in the June quarter, more than one third of DRD’s South African quarterly production. This was at a cash cost of $488/oz, almost $100 an ounce higher than the company’s received gold price of $395/oz.
Graulich says the extended negotiations had nothing to do with a gold price which has jumped back above R85,000/kg in the last few weeks, after dipping below R78,000/kg early in August.
Deon van der Mescht, who was in charge of SA operations, left the company a week before the results announcement, a matter about which Murray continually declined to comment despite continual questioning
[Blockierte Grafik: http://80.239.136.196/user/wkn/logopur.png]
http://80.239.136.196/news/columns/view.m?news_id=948121
Öl - Hype ist vorbei - Mit Gold nun bis zu 30 % Gewinn sichern
14:28 01.09.04
Die Öl-Hype ist aus technischer Sicht beendet. Das Geld wird aus dem schwarzen Gold abgezogen und wandert zum Teil direkt in das glänzende Edelmetall.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://80.239.136.196/news/att…ody&resize_x=540&id=20312]
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.aktiencheck.de/images/aktiencheck_1.gif]
http://www.aktiencheck.de/anal…etype=5&AnalysenID=462509
Analysen - Ausland
01.09.2004
Sino Gold zukaufen
Der Aktionär
Die Experten des Anlegermagazins "Der Aktionär" empfehlen die Sino Gold-Aktie (ISIN AU000000SGX4/ WKN 164185) bei Schwäche zuzukaufen.
Das Unternehmen habe mit den Zahlen für das erste Halbjahr 2004 die Erwartungen erfüllt und das Ziel, ab dem Jahr 2006 jährlich 180.000 Unzen Gold zu produzieren, werde bekräftigt.
Dagegen habe China die Vereinfachung der Minengesetze bekannt gegeben, was bei Sino-Aktionären Ängste vor neuer Konkurrenz verursacht habe.
Die Experten von "Der Aktionär" sind der Meinung, dass die Sino Gold-Aktie bei Schwäche zugekauft werden soll, geben ein Kursziel von 3 Euro an und empfehlen, bei 0,95 Euro einen Stopp zu setzen.
Wir sind uns schon einig, dass Investitionen in Rohstoffe grosse Chancen bieten, vor allem gerade jetzt und auf mittlere Sicht.
Trotzdem befürchte ich, dass bei einem von mir erwarteten Crash unseres jetzigen Derivate, Fiat Money, und fraktional Banking Systems, die Nachfrage nach Rohstoffen massiv einbrechen würde.
Bei Gold, und Silber sehe ich im Gegenteil eine sich explosionsartig steigernde Nachfrage.
Rohstoffe sind sicherlich eine sehr gute Anlageform, doch bei einem globalen Währungs/Börsen Crash würden aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach eben auch die Rohstoffpreise bald massiv einbrechen, weil die Nachfrage einbrechen würde.
Mit was glaubst Du, würde China ihre benötigten riesigen Rohstoff Importe bezahlen, wenn sie eines Tages festellen müssten, das ihnen die USA / FED ihre Dollar Guthaben gesperrt hat. Wieviel an Waren glaubst Du würden in China nach einem solchen Szenario noch in die USA geliefert. Falls der jetztige kontrollierte Wertverlust des US Dollars, eine Eigendynamik entwickelt, die Abwertung ausser Kontrolle gerät, eine Hyperinflation alla 1923/24 in Deutschland entsteht, und die US Dollar Devisenreserven Chinas, und aller anderen Länder dieser Welt, sich ihrem inneren Wert (NULL) nähern, was glaubst Du würde mit der Nachfrage nach Rohstoffen passieren.
Viele Anleger glauben zu Unrecht leider immer noch, dass die riesigen US Dollar Devisenreserven Chinas auch in China gehalten werden. Ganz Uninformierte glauben sogar, dass es sich bei Dollar Devisenreserven um wirkliche Banknoten handeln würde.
Der grösste Teil der Devisenreserven Chinas, und der meisten Länder dieser Welt befindt sich nicht in diesen jeweiligen Ländern, sondern im Ausland. Auf digitalen Konten bei der FED zum Beispiel, oder bei der City Bank, bei JP-Morgan, Goldman Sachs, und anderen grosen Finanzinstituten. Auch die offiziellen Goldreserven von Zentralbanken, deren Bestände ("Zahlen Spielereien") jeweils von der Weltbank veröffentlicht werden, befinden sich zum grossen Teil, abgesehen von wenigen Ländern mit grösseren physischen Goldbeständen, ebenfalls im Ausland, und können ohne grosse Probleme von den USA, oder ihren Verbündeten, denke da vor allem an Grossbritanien, mit ihrer privaten Bank of England, und der privaten LBMA, deren Aktionärsstruktur sich bemerkenswertzerweise teilweise mit derjenigen der privaten Federal Reserv Bank überschneidet, blockiert werden. Die benötigten Gesetze dazu, auf die im "Bedarfsfalle" zugegriffen werden könnte, bestehen in den USA bereits.
Wenn jemand überzeugt davon ist, dass kein Crash bevorsteht, dass den Amerikanern ihre riesen Schulden weiterhin von der ganzen Welt finanziert werden wird, und unser "Fraktional Banking" und "Fiat Geld System" mit allem drum und dran, nochmals 10, 20, oder noch mehr Jahre weiter existieren kann, ja dann würde auch ich davon ausgehen, dass Investitionen in Rohstoffe auch langfristig eine sehr gute Wahl sind.
Leider glaube ich nicht daran, dass letzteres der Fall sein wird.
Darum bevorzuge ich Gold, und Silber als Langfristanlage.
Gruss
ThaiGuru
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
How many Hail Mary rallies late in the day is the DOW going to have before the mainstreamers on Wall Street are going to talk about possible shenanigans to goose the US stock market? The DOW was nowhere (lower on the session) till after 2:30 when the word must have gone out to the price supporting consortium. Bonds rallied once again because the economic news (see below) was not good. What is going on in the real world is of little importance to the PPT when they have been instructed to do their thing. The DOW shot up 51 to 10,171, while the DOG was dragged higher, gaining 2 to 1838.
The US economic news continues to disappoint. For the last 3 to 6 weeks the data has consistently come in modestly weaker than expected. Today was no exception:
07:45 UBS chain store index (0.2%) in 8/28 week after +0.1% in the prior week
* * * * *
08:55 Redbook chain store sales index (1.1%) though 8/28 vs July
This is a slight deterioration from the (1.0%) reported through the 8/21 week.
* * * * *
10:00 August Chicago Purchasing Manager reported 57.3 vs. consensus 60
Prior reading was 64.7.
* * * * *
10:00 Aug. Consumer Confidence reported 98.2 vs. consensus 103.5
Prior reading revised to 105.7 from 106.1.
* * * * *
NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in August, breaking four straight months of gains, as a slowdown in job growth creation and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment.
The Conference Board, a private forecasting group, said its measure of consumer sentiment fell to 98.2 from a revised 105.7 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a fall to 103.5
The present situation index fell to 100.7 from 106.4, while the expectations index fell to 96.6 from 105.3.
The percentage of consumers who said jobs were hard to get was little changed at 25.8 percent, compared with 25.7 percent in July. But consumers saying jobs are plentiful decreased to 18.1 percent from 19.7 percent.
"The level of consumer optimism has fallen off and caution has returned," Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center said in a statement. "Until the job market and pace of hiring picks up, this cautious attitude will prevail." –END-
11:14 WTO confirms it has authorized sanctions against U.S. -- Dow Jones
The EU, Japan and Brazil won approval from the WTO to impose tariffs on imports from the U.S. in reaction to Congress failing to end illegal corporate subsidies worth $850M since 2001. The EU has yet to decide if it will impose sanctions, which are generally targeted as import duties on specific goods. Complainants will be able to fine the U.S. up to 72% of money collected under a U.S. antidumping law.
* * * * *
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:
The Fed added $4 Billion in temps today August 31rst 2004, an action that upped the repo pool to its highest level since I began the series, $56.765B (They added $4Billion later yesterday in the PM). This move takes the repo ma back onto the upslope even as the DOW's 30-day ma is slipping to new lows for the move. I continue to believe that the recipient for all these repo funds is oil derivatives. It is useful to note that the oil tanker
capacities as measured by the un leased VLCC fleet shows a sizeable 64 available of 98 reported leases. This implies but does not prove that oil is being produced as fast as possible and yet still cannot fill the tanker pipeline. The issue is MUCH more complex than this simplistic snapshot but non-the-less things ARE in a tight bind.
Players are girding for an expected market "event" of some kind in the near future. What this is to be is anyone's guess but enough has been posted about it to give the idea reasonable credibility.
Saville's latest: Right Trade Imbalance Track/Wrong Concept
In describing the Fed's trade imbalance position Steve reports what he sees as their "story" line:
"...the massive current account deficit reflects the US's superiority from an economic and investment standpoint..."
He goes on to rail against the false US treasury demand creates by Japan's (mostly) buying and concludes things have a way to go:
"There are no signs at this stage that the aforementioned artificial demand for US Treasury debt is abating, the result being that the huge US current account and trade deficits are not generally perceived to be large problems. This will change, though, because until the extent of the problem is officially acknowledged a solution won't be sought. And until a viable solution is sought and put in place the problem won't go away."
What Saville fails to appreciate is there will NEVER be an official Fed acknowledgement of a trade imbalance problem no matter how high the imbalance grows. This is because the Fed already knows they are implementing a cruel hoax on the world by having Japan inflate their currency through the purchase of US treasuries and because that inflation is sequestered and out of circulation they temporarily escape the ravages of price rises due to
inflation. Indeed, Mr. Greenspan has officially admitted a joint Japan/US plan to support each others currencies...the rigging is all out in the open. He will never concede defeat by admitting a problem in the trade imbalance for to do so would negate the Fed's entire interventional structure. They NEED Japan's trade surplus to the US not to mention their purchases of treasuries so the Fed CAN'T admit that the trade imbalances are a problem.
Waiting around for the Federal Reserve to admit damage they themselves caused isn't useful. Threat the Fed as adversaries of the truth and stop imagining they will somehow act "normal".
National debt, going broke...again
Folks, get ready for anything from the government as we plunge along into the next "refunding" Act of Congress. The deficit blowtorch is set on full but we seem to need another load of acetylene. It will happen before the end of the year because the wild spenders again need to raise their debt ceiling. They will once again justify it as a war on renewed DEflation...or was that a war on INflation? I guess I need a program to tell the difference. Better, we need TWO programs one for the smashing depression and another to count Bernanke's enhanced monetary "production" that he imagines will offset the depression. STAGflation by any other name.
DIVG
The Fed has once again set a course upward in the DIVG. It's growth track is a bit shallower that the Feb to May slope but up none-the-less. I keep reminding folks that the gold game is a long term affair and that one shouldn't be concerned about day-to-day actions. The important metric is the long term moving average of the DIVG. This is the item the central banks use and you should too.
Whether the PM fix tops $430 by month's end is less important than accepting that the DIVG is headed up again on a VERY tight track. There remains a slight possibility that the Fed may conduct an assault in about a month's time but this complexity seems remote at the moment.
A small note: The EU has adopted an 8% tax on the sale of bullion from the US over a trade dispute (Thanks to Jim Turk for reminding me). While apparently a squabble, this act serves to thwart the movement of bullion from the US to EU countries, just the kind of action that the Fed would WANT should they slam the door on the COMEX at $400 per ounce. That would quickly lead to skyrocketing bullion prices elsewhere, like Shanghai.
While the Fed and cbs set a DIVG plan, gold speculators and metal seekers eat away at it. I continue to believe that at any moment a sufficiently large entity can present demands that will quickly exhaust current gold inventories and THAT event will be seismic. Hugo Chavez, Vincente Fox, players in the ME can do it almost at any time, so adopting a gold position in preparation is vital.
Mike
More from Mike:
Hi Bill:
If anyone harbors lingering doubts over the importance of the DIVG in evaluating the Fed's operational goals, examine the attached chart with particular attention to the yellow long "pma". This is a proprietary metric that follows the tracks of the Fed's MCDI (major currency dollar index) and the LBMA PM Fix. The vertical data scales have been normalized.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/DIVGComponents.gif]
Note the exact correlation between the abrupt changes in BOTH the MCDI and the PM Fix. Their pattern correlation suggests that BOTH are formally linked.
This is why I combine them to yield a DIVG metric, it saves me the trouble of guessing at the value change in gold and I think this is what the cartel also does. In other words, the cartel targets the DIVG as their principle goal in today's gold war.
Although the PM Fix is slipping in the long pma, I know from other metrics that the Fed has decided to head up in the DIVG at a shallow rising slope for now.
Mike
But, there is no inflation:
Midas,
I just looked at the Chicago NAPM report. The prices paid component indicates prices climbed to "the highest in 16 years." Also 18% of respondents reporting higher prices. Those reporting lower prices remains at 4%. Same as last month. Clearly a soft patch with rising prices and inventories. What a mess for the Fed.
http://www.napm-chicago.org/current.pdf
Rich
shrehdq
Aspen, CO
Don’t Worry, Be Happy on the Inflation Train
"Don’t worry about those noises off in the distance on the inflation train", pipes the Conductor. "And there’s no such possibility as a ‘Bridge out Ahead’", soothes the Engineer.
"Rising oil, steel, and food prices are not a problem for this train", advises our Tour Guide. "Asia will always be able to export inexpensive, quality goods to us and our dollars are highly appreciated in return."
"What about unemployment and underutilization that you have in your country?" a foreigner on the train asks. "We will always be able to borrow and buy", confides the Guide.
"And don’t pay any attention to news of higher silver and gold prices", adds her assistant. "These are not money and the vaults are full of these things anyway. So our people are quite happy to save in our banks and earn interest. Our investment markets with rising stock, bond and real estate prices are the safest in the world."
Dan O’Shea
On the oil front:
China's stockpile of oil helps to bolster prices
August 31, 2004
EVIDENCE is mounting that China is buying more oil than it consumes, raising fears that oil hoarding may be supporting the current high price of crude.
The signs of aggressive Chinese stockpiling emerge from research by Merrill Lynch, the investment bank, which suggests that China is importing crude and refined products at twice the rate of growth in actual demand.
Rampant economic growth in the People’s Republic over the past two years has enabled China to overtake Japan this year as the world’s second largest oil consumer, burning some 6.3 million barrels a day.
Projections of the rate of growth in consumption in the People’s Republic suggest that China’s power generators, road hauliers, petrochemical plants and factories will burn an extra 500,000 barrels a day of crude oil this year. But Merrill Lynch’s analysis of implied demand, based on import data in the first and second quarter of this year, suggests that demand will increase this year by one million barrels a day.
Rest of the story here:
http://business.timesonline.co…e/0,,8209-1240069,00.html
-END-
According to a report at Minweb, "A second half gold production performance hampered by poor weather and lower grades saw Australia’s 2003/04 financial year (FY) total slide four percent to 274 tonnes (or 8.8 million ounces) versus the previous FY."
We see this pattern all over the world of falling gold production for various reasons. The bottom line is The Gold Cartel is going to find itself in BIG trouble as the months wear on from here on in.
Two quickie notes from Aussie Café members on the Gwalia fiasco:
Hi there Bill:
Are we ever rejoicing for getting out of SGW at 8.97$ (now at 1.30$ and going down...) some years ago when you (GATA) advised us of what was in the pipeline. Thanks so much for your insight.
Jean-Marc
Go GATA - you blokes have had it right from the start!
Ian
The gold shares rebounded catching those who sold yesterday going the wrong way. The cads don’t always get it right. The XAU went up 1.94 to 94.79 and the HUI gained 5.26 to 207.39. Both closed at their highs.
We know what The Gold Cartel is up to. What remains to be seen is if some unexpected market development sends them reeling. We need gold to fly away from $410 fast, not just look like it will. The way positive surprises have gone our way the past couple of weeks, this no stretch way of thinking. There is no reason for the recent trend to change. ‘Bout time the breaks go our way.
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
Bill
I have some comments on how gold mining companies raise finance, and on hedging, which lead on from your first Midas item on Friday.
1) Juniors can raise sufficient cash for exploration by equity financing;
eg Private Placements, provided the brokers/banks and their investors consider the project attractive, and that the general market conditions are friendly to mining projects. The latter was the case up to approx 1997, and then from 2000 to the present day.
From 1997 to 2000 the market crashed with the suppression of the gold price to its low in the 250's. The juniors who survived this period are the Darwinian stars of today, but many others did not survive. Exploration requires approx 1 to 50 million us$ depending on the number and scale of the projects. Equity dilution by PPs can be minimised in the friendly market periods when share prices are relatively high and rising.
2) Financing a mine requires much more cash.
Depending on the size of the mine and location, infrastructure, and access, the amount required can be 100 million up to over 1 billion US$.
100% equity financing here is normally too dilutive to the share price, and so some element of debt financing becomes necessary.
This is where the Bullion Banks play their trump card and demand that the PM company hedges x mill ozs with the Bullion Bank as a precondition for the loan.
3)How can the PMs avoid hedging while financing new mines?
This is one of the key questions to stop the suppression of the gold price. I dont pretend to have any magic response to this problem, but if I make a few comments and we open it up for debate amongst cafe members, maybe together we can find some useful ideas.
a)The most obvious answer is to find another Bank that will finance the project without demanding hedging.
However, this may prove difficult, especially among the often mentioned Bullion Banks, who are regularly seen shorting Comex.
For reasons as described admirably in this weeks Sprott report, they often have a vested interest in depressing the gold price.
b)A convertible loan into shares of the company? Equity dilution could be reduced if the loan terms were taken positively by the market and resulted in a rising share price.
c) Loans from Banks outside of the Bullion industry.
I could provide more suggestions here, but I think the above are enough to get the ball rolling.
What we need now is some suggestions from the experts in the industry, who support Gata, such as the Sprott team, who as mentioned above have just this week produced their great Report on the gold market, which is circulating everywhere on the internet currently.
Best
Alan
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
The John Brimelow Report
Bears stressed
Tuesday, August 31, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.31, PM $6.18, with world gold at $407.80 and $408.40. Ample for legal imports. A Reuters report from Singapore today contrasts the confident expectations of Indian bullion dealers with the glumness of Far Eastern operators. Another story has appeared, courtesy thebulliondesk, suggesting that demand in the Gulf has been unusually strong this summer. See
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/44544.html
Japan reverted to passivity today. TOCOM volume dropped 17% to the equivalent of 22,245 Comex lots. The active contract was unchanged, while world gold was 30c above NY at the close. Open interest edged down the equivalent of 766 Comex lots. While kilo bar premiums according to Reuters are steady at an undemanding 50c, which makes them amongst the highest in the Far East. (NY yesterday traded 39,273 lots; open interest slipped another 1,733 contracts.)
Minesite.com, the always interesting UK source, carries a note on the Sons of Gwalia debacle, pointing out that they were intimidated out of covering the story by threats of legal action by the company. See
http://www.minesite.com/archiv…aug-2004/gwalia310804.htm
Sons of Gwalia, of course, has not been the only heavy hedger to use this technique.
The Bears appear in something of a quandary here. They would like to argue that the Sons of Gwalia impact will be fleeting, and that the build up of spec long positions has been so rapid and so substantial as to be now precarious. There is the thought long positions have been taken for the Republican Convention, and will be reversed immediately it is over. However, they realize that it is well known that there was also a massive seller present in the past couple of weeks (UBS says of Monday:
"the gold market was quiet yesterday with the only feature some determined buying from one European bank on the Comex floor that lifted the metal by about $4/oz as there was little selling around, in contrast to last week." (JB emphasis)
Also, the physical market has not backed off (Standard London:
"Notable physical interest remains around the $403 level…")
which offers the possibility that casual spec longs will be able to exit easily.
An interesting aside is SG Commodities’s comment:
"Gold-producing countries are now ready to lend their gold reserves at very low rates to cover some of their expenses rather than leave the gold sitting in their account…Rates are now negative up to the 1-year, which is trading at zero. With the 10-year barely above 100 bp, these are the lowest rates the market has ever seen." (JB emphasis)
Gold’s friends will find it encouraging that such cheap funding is forsworn, presumably because of the basis risk – a huge contrast to the pre LTCM era.
JB
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
August 31 - Gold $409.50 up $1.90 – Silver $6.75 up 4 cents
The Battle For $410 Gold
Zitat"An old, long-whiskered man once said to Teddy Roosevelt: 'I am a Democrat, my father was a Democrat, my grandfather was a Democrat.' Roosevelt then said: 'Then if your father had been a horse thief and your grandfather had been a horse thief, you would be a horse thief?'" --Will Rogers
The battle goes on. The reasons to buy gold are as bullish as they get. As a result, The Gold Cartel is doing all it can to keep gold from rising and possibly getting out of control on the upside. With rumors flying about what kind of buying is kicking in as a result of the Daughters of Gwalia disaster and the euro taking off today, gold was held in check. First, the cabal took it down on the day after opening $1 higher (with the euro up over .50) and then stopped surges above the $410 level all day long. With gold $410.60 bid going into the close, the cabal went into action to top off their day’s price-rigging, knocking it down $1 on the bell. Mission to defend $410 accomplished.
This crooked crew managed to hit gold late even though the euro eventually rose 1.21 to 121.69 and the dollar fell .78 to 88.96. If gold the dollar is able to take out key support at 88.70, it might really tank.
Once again we are shown how secondary the dollar action is compared to The Gold Cartel activity is when it comes to determining the gold price. With what all else is going on regarding gold and the Daughters mess, gold should have gone $415 bid today, EASILY.
Nothing new here from the bad guys. They operated the same way in early July right below $410. What is new since July is news of Argentina buying 42 tonnes of gold surfaced, the Sprott Special Report was released last week and now the Daughters have blown up. All of those are constructive developments for the price of gold and should have the market flying.
What remains to be seen if the cabal will be overpowered by so many positive gold developments. It is only a matter of time before they will be. We all just want it to happen yesterday. Watching these crooks operate without interference from the regulatory authorities is both grueling and infuriating.
The gold open interest fell 1733 contracts to 268,181.
There was all sorts of commotion in the option pits. Goldman Sachs was seen as a featured buyers of gold puts and so were a few other key operators. Whether this buying has anything do with the Gwalia mess remains a mystery for now.
What is so bothersome about the gold world and those who report on it is their dishonesty. We are hearing about all this buying which was, and is, to be done to unwind the Daughters’ hedge positions. Then, why isn’t the price of gold soaring? It has barely moved, gone up chump change. Why don’t these nefarious clowns ever report who the sellers were and why. Clearly there are coordinated forces out there operating to keep the price of gold at certain levels.
Silver was very sluggish again. Morgan Stanley was a seller and has become very bearish. The late buyer was none other than Goldman Sachs.
The silver open interest dropped 568 contracts to 96,399.
