Beiträge von ThaiGuru

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The John Brimelow Report

Is Big Brother watching us?

Monday, August 23, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.74, PM $6.88, with world gold at $410.90 and $409.60. Adequate, and ample, for legal imports. Impressively resilient performance: very bad news for Bears.

India’s credit rating was raised by S&P today, and UBS has published a report linking the country with China in a forecast for stupendous growth in consumer spending over the next generation. After an initial flurry in the early 90s, Chinese economic growth has meant disappointingly little for gold (in contrast to platinum); India, on the other hand, has been excellent. The concept that India should be compared with China must ultimately improve sentiment towards gold via comprehension of the Venerosian "wealth effect" idea.

Wealth growth is the reason advanced for the double- digit surge in gold demand (by weight) in the Gulf in Q2 ’04 compared to ’03, which is reported in several Gulf Newspapers today. (See the eccentrically headlined

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/Di…st/business_august398.xml story.)

Considering the gold price, this is indeed a remarkable event: geopolitical factors must surely be involved as well. Needless to say, the latter is not going away.

With the active contract up 16 yen at the close, liquidation on TOCOM has clearly resumed. On comparatively heavy volume equal to 36,631 Comex lots (127% above Friday), open interest slipped another 544 Comex equivalent to equal only 93,493 Comex contracts. This is quite low for TOCOM. World gold was $1.95 below NY’s close at the end of trading. (NY on Friday traded 86,343 contracts. Open interest leapt a staggering 19,062 lots, (59.3 tonnes!) to 257,077.)

Observers generally seem to have some difficulty accounting for gold’s behavior last week. It emancipated itself from the dollar of course. UBS is also puzzled by what they consider to be a low build up in spec longs:

"The COTR for gold showed a smaller than expected increase in the net long position in gold in the week to 17 August. As we stated on Friday, based on the move in the gold price over the preceding week, we expected an increase of 2-3 million ounces. The one million ounce addition… probably indicates that OTC rather than Comex buying has been driving the metal. Subsequent changes in open interest suggest that the net long position has increased by around another 1-2 million ounces since then, again a rather small move… OTC funds have been largely absent from the gold market since the May sell-off and the fact that they may be returning to the gold market could herald a move back to the highs of earlier in the year"

The obvious explanation, that the gold move last week was rooted in the Middle East and Indian physical market (which is what the premiums have been saying), is surprisingly overlooked. There is, of course, a real question as to how close an upscale outfit like UBS is to the grubby business of shipping many small parcels of metal to the Arabs and Indians.

Commentaries are probably more justified in attributing Friday’s action to Funds – although UBS interestingly reports heavy activity on the PM fix (which was $410.55), suggesting there was physical appetite as well. What is not discussed, and on the basis of past experience will not be discussed, is what kind of seller stands from 11am to the close on an August Friday, pouring huge volume into the market, and holding the price static (at around $413 spot). This after the gold price had triumphantly vaulted just about every technical obstacle recently popular.

Mike Bolser, who believes gold is under constant management on the basis of the 200-day moving average of the Dollar Index price, has begun considering if the effort to keep this parameter flat (which he detected early in the summer) has been abandoned. What can be said on the basis of the physical premiums is that the hero seller is likely to be needed again.

JB

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August 23 - Gold $410.50 down $2.40 – Silver $6.74 down 11 cents

Gold Cartel Digs In, Massive Open Interest Increase, Gold Breaks Out In Euro Terms

Zitat

Many of us spend our whole lives running from feeling with the mistaken belief that you can not bear the pain. But you have already borne the pain. What you have not done is feel all you are beyond that pain... Kahlil Gibran

GO GATA!!!

As soon as I saw gold open lower in the Access market last evening, it made me feel like the spouse who has caught her husband, or his wife, cheating over and over again. The spouse finds her marriage partner missing in action one more time and believes there is a legitimate excuse for the most recent no-show. The denial, or hope of change of a decadent pattern, is so strong as to rule out infidelity for the 100th time.
Sorry, some habits and patterns do not change very easily. While a good part of the gold market action was different on Friday and should lead to substantial moves higher in the weeks and months ahead if the physical market holds up as we expect, The Gold Cartel isn’t going to go quietly into the night. They are going to have to be kicked in the pants and sent squealing into the dumpster.

As par for the course, we are seeing their patented modus operandi. They cap, cap, capped gold up within their $6 Rule parameters the last few hours of trading on Friday in preparation for a regrouping today. Clearly, they were surprised and stunned by the enormous buying on Friday. So, once again the dollar was propped up for no apparent reason in Europe this morning and gold was sent to the cleaners.

What is so obvious about this is the consistency of their rigging pattern. Markets which break out like gold did last Friday, usually follow-through for a bit further – and then they might fail. Gold never does. Instead, it is always taken down before trading begins the next day in an effort to influence the trading on the Comex. The S&P does just the opposite. The Working Group on Financial Markets maneuvers it to come in higher on most mornings, as they don’t have to compete with any cash market and can prop up the US stock market by employing relatively modest amounts of funds.

Aside from the contrived Gold Cartel inspired price-capping, gold is due for a rest from a technical standpoint to consolidate its gains after its run-up the past month. Physical market buyers were the ones responsible for gold’s big jump last week and it is only natural they wait for pull backs to add to their positions.

However, the proof is in the pudding when it comes to gold's price, which should be correcting from $423, not $413. To give you some idea of how desperate The Gold Cartel is to keep that price from going to where it should, the open interest rose an astonishing 19,062 contracts to 257,077. With that sort of buying power hitting the market, gold should have rallied $16 on Friday, or more. Clearly, cabal headquarters put out the word to stop the gold advance at all costs (after they were kicked you know where in the early going). As John Brimelow constantly points out, no seller wanting to maximize profits would have sold gold the last few hours in such a manner as to keep the price from rising. The massive rise in the open interest with gold failing to move higher in the last hours of trading is PROOF how important the $6 Rule is to the crooks.

London checked in and is looking for a short-term pullback to $405/$408 as the cash market buyers take a breather. However, they are looking for gold to rebound by week’s end as the physical market buying picks up. They expect that demand to really pick up in September and for gold to take out $418 and go on from there.

Our stalker source also says there was a decent amount of junk gold which surfaced at the refiners in the US and Europe when gold took out $400 to the upside. Refiners like this sort of raw material as they can price it right. However, this recent supply has dried up and it will take higher prices to bring in the next tranche. Thus, the refiners are running low on supply at the moment and will have to pay up in the marketplace to secure new inventory.

The funds were the buyers again today, looking at the price setback as good entry points. Even with the astonishing open interest increase, there is room for another 50,000 contracts to pile in before we take out this year’s earlier high of 305,000+.

So this was not a good day for gold right? The gold price went down, yes? Nope, not necessarily. If you own gold in euros, it went UP! Matter of fact, it took out some key resistance at 337.40, a high made last December 1 when gold was trading around $430 in dollar terms. The only major resistance now is at the 349 level where it put in a quadruple top in late March, the last time gold approached $430.

This is a marvelous development. For the second day in a row, gold has traded with some independence from what the dollar is doing. Been that way for more than a week actually. However, the last two trading sessions have been more dramatic. This tells me The Gold Cartel is throwing all they have (plus the kitchen sink) at gold to keep from being routed, to keep the price from accelerating too fast - and they are having trouble doing so. The enormous buying in the physical market is giving them fits and certainly is hastening their DOOM!

The dollar closed at 89.18, up .95, while the euro lost 1.64 to 121.39.

September dollar
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/94

September euro
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/94

Currency analysts we spoke to could give no clear cut explanation why the dollar was so strong today. It was up sharply against ALL major currencies. Most answers were of a technical nature. From a fundamental standpoint, this surge in the dollar makes no sense. Was the trade deficit corrected the past few days? This smells of ESF intervention of some sort and signals The Working Group on Financial Markets has some bigger problems going on behind the scenes which have them spooked.

The dollar's startling strength also blows out of the water those who contended it was holding up because of the strength in oil; that dollars were needed to pay for the higher oil prices. October oil closed at $46 per barrel, down 75 cents. Thus, oil and gold have gone in opposite directions, and substantially, for two days in succession.

Silver’s tired action of the last two trading sessions kicked in today with silver swooning almost 20 cents in the early going. It stabilized from there on in and actually closed near its highs of the day.

The silver open interest rose sharply too, gaining 5,008 contracts to 104,931.

The best silver news of the day was the warehouse stocks, after rising somewhat, fell sharply again and are close to making new lows for the move. They fell 1,260,115 ounces to 110,130,514.

Bitte zwischen den Zeilen lesen!!!

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US Treasury wants to identify issue holders

By Jennifer Hughes

The US Treasury on Monday called on holders of large positions in a government bond issue to identify themselves to the New York Federal Reserve

The Treasury asked for those holding $2bn or more in the 4 per cent bond due June 15 2009, by close of business on Wednesday August 18, to notify the NY Federal Reserve by Friday. Such summonses are usually issued when dealing in a particular security in the repo, or lending, market has become unusually tight. "It's their way of letting the market know they're paying attention and telling it not to misbehave," said John Roberts, head of government trading at Barclays Capital in New York.

Conditions in the US repo market, where participants can borrow securities for short-selling and other uses, have become a concern because of a growing number of "fails", where the securities in question are not lent or returned in spite of a repo agreement. A prolonged fail last year raised concerns among observers that the problem was becoming more entrenched and could undermine confidence in the market.

The Treasury responded at its quarterly refunding this month by announcing it would maintain current levels of issuance in 10-year notes against previous indications that it could scale back the sales.

The Treasury also noted market concerns about the growing number of overseas holders of government bonds. About half of all liquid Treasury bonds are held by foreign investors, mainly central banks.

Zitat

"They are more reluctant to lend the securities and this has been linked to the larger number of fails," said Kim Rupert, bond market analyst at ActionEconomics.

Und was sagen uns die Meldungen von heute?

Immer schoen etwas GOLD und SILBER dazu kaufen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.n24.de/politik/inland/?a2004082315552116256

Letzter Ausweg aus der Armutsfalle - das Sparschwein der Kinder?

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23. August 2004

Deutschland 2004: Unzufrieden und ärmer

Datenreport sieht wachsende Ungleichheit

Deutschland droht in den kommenden Jahren zunehmende Armut und wachsende Ungleichheit bei der Einkommensverteilung. Bereits jetzt sind die Bundesbürger immer unzufriedener mit ihren Lebensbedingungen und haben immer weniger Vertrauen in ihre soziale Absicherung und das Gesundheitswesen. Das zeigt der "Datenreport 2004", der am Montag in Berlin vorgestellt wurde. Demnach geht es den Deutschen inzwischen nicht mehr besser als ihren Nachbarn, sondern sie sind im europäischen Vergleich in vielen Bereichen auf mittlere oder hintere Plätze abgerutscht.

Der seit 1983 alle zwei Jahre vorgestellte Datenreport erfasst die soziale Lage und das subjektive Wohlbefinden der Bevölkerung in Deutschland. Erstellt wird er vom Statistischen Bundesamt, dem Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB) und dem Zentrum für Umfragen, Methoden und Analysen (ZUMA) in Mannheim. Die Ergebnisse deuten bei den Bereichen Einkommen und Armut eine Trendwende an: Nachdem der Anteil der Bevölkerung, der unter der Armutsgrenze lebt, in Westdeutschland mehr als ein Jahrzehnt stabil war und in Ostdeutschland nur langsam stieg, zeigen für 2002 alle Indikatoren eine Zunahme der Armut. 2002 lebten demnach 13,1 Prozent der Deutschen in Armut, 2001 waren es 12,5 Prozent.

Tendenz zu Ungleichheit und Armut

Gleichzeitig wird die Einkommensverteilung immer ungleicher: Die ärmsten 20 Prozent der Bevölkerung erhielten 2001 nur noch 9,3 Prozent des gesamten Einkommens gegenüber 9,7 Prozent im Vorjahr. Zudem sind in Ostdeutschland elf Prozent und im Westen sieben Prozent der Haushalte von Überschuldung bedroht. Einzeln betrachtet sei dies noch keine dramatische Entwicklung, hieß es in einer Stellungnahme von WZB und ZUMA. Insgesamt zeige sich aber eine Tendenz zu einer von zunehmender Ungleichheit und Armut gekennzeichneten Gesellschaft, was die inzwischen eingeleiteten Reformmaßnahmen für die Sozialsysteme noch verstärken würden.

Doch schon vor den Reformmaßnahmen waren die Bürger im Jahr 2002 mit der sozialen Sicherung mit Abstand am wenigsten zufrieden. Insgesamt geht das subjektive Wohlbefinden der Bevölkerung - die allgemeine Lebenszufriedenheit und Zufriedenheit mit verschiedenen Aspekten der Lebensbedingungen - zurück. Dabei sind die Ostdeutschen bis auf das Thema Kinderbetreuung unzufriedener als die Westdeutschen, vor allem bei den Themen Haushaltseinkommen und Lebensstandard.

Ostdeutsche glauben weniger an die Demokratie

Alarmierend ist vor diesem Hintergrund die Einstellung der Ostdeutschen zur Demokratie: Mit 49 Prozent glaubte im Jahr 2000 nur knapp weniger als die Hälfte, dass die Demokratie in Deutschland die beste Staatsform sei - bei den unter 35-jährigen Ostdeutschen waren es sogar nur 45 Prozent. Von den Westdeutschen stimmten immerhin 80 Prozent dieser Aussage zu. Zufrieden mit dem Funktionieren der Demokratie in Deutschland waren im Jahr 2000 nur 38 Prozent der Ostdeutschen gegenüber 60 Prozent der Westdeutschen.

Drei Jahre später stieg die Zahl der zufriedenen Westdeutschen auf 66 Prozent, bei den Ostdeutschen sank die Zahl auf 32 Prozent. "Es trifft nicht mehr länger zu, dass es den Deutschen besser geht als den meisten anderen Europäern", erklärte Roland Habich vom WZB. Die Situation auf dem Arbeitsmarkt war 2002 bei den damals 15 EU-Ländern nur in Spanien, Griechenland, Finnland, Italien und Frankreich schlechter als in Deutschland. Das Vertrauen in Gesundheitswesen und Sozialversicherung ist in Deutschland derzeit deutlich geringer als in den meisten EU-15-Ländern. Und weniger zufrieden als die Deutschen mit ihrem Leben insgesamt sind nur noch Italiener, Franzosen, Griechen und Portugiesen. Außerdem gehört Deutschland zu der Minderheit der EU-15-Länder, in denen weniger als die Hälfte der erwachsenen Bevölkerung mit ihrer Gesellschaft zufrieden ist.

Positive Nachrichten gibt es immerhin von den Rentnern: Diese sind mit der sozialen Sicherung wesentlich zufriedener als die noch arbeitende Bevölkerung, und auch ihre Lebenszufriedenheit sinkt selbst im hohen Alter nur unwesentlich. Einbußen der Lebensqualität sehen sie hauptsächlich bei ihrer Gesundheit. Dagegen konnten sie ihre Einkommenssituation im vergleich zu den Jüngeren in den vergangenen 20 Jahren verbessern - vor allem im Osten, wo sie klar zu den Gewinnern der Nachwendezeit gehören.

(N24.de, AP)

Mehr zum Thema:
Hartz-Proteste in 140 Städten
Schickt Hartz IV Kinder in die Armut?
Neue Altersarmut - Hartz sei Dank?

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Montag 23.08.2004

Gefahr des Überspringens des Vogelgrippe-Virus auf Schweine

PEKING - In China hat die WHO nach dem mutmasslichen Überspringen des tödlichen Vogelgrippe-Virus auf Schweine vor einer weltweiten Epidemie gewarnt. Die WHO werde ein mögliches Übergreifen des Virus auf Schweine sehr genau prüfen.

Die Gefahr einer weltweiten Epidemie sei «näher gerückt, aber wir wissen nicht, wie nahe», sagte der Leiter der Weltgesundheitsorganisation für die Region Westpazifik, Shigeru Omi, im malaysischen Penang: «In diesem Moment gibt es noch keinen Grund für eine Panik, aber wir müssen wachsam bleiben».

Die chinesischen Behörden dementierten derweil Angaben einer führenden Wissenschaftlerin, wonach das Virus in diesem Jahr bei Schweinen nachgewiesen wurde. Insgesamt 1,1 Millionen Gewebeproben von Geflügel und Schweinen seien untersucht worden, teilte das chinesische Landwirtschaftsministerium mit.

In den Gewebeproben von Schweinen sei das besonders gefährliche Vogelgrippe-Virus H5N1 nicht entdeckt worden. Chen Hualan vom chinesischen Vogelgrippe-Referenzentrum hatte am Freitag darüber informiert, dass bei jüngsten Tests an «einem einzigen Ort» ein Stamm von Vogelgrippe-Viren in Schweinen nachgewiesen worden sei.

Zudem lägen positive Tests bereits aus dem vergangenen Jahr vor. Schweine gelten als gute «Mischgefässe» für das Virus. Weil die Tiere sich sowohl mit der menschlichen Grippe als auch mit der Vogelgrippe infizieren könnten, könnten die beiden Erreger in den Schweinezellen zu einem neuen, von Mensch zu Mensch übertragbaren und tödlichen Virus mutieren. 230918 aug 04

SDA-ATS

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Economic

Aug 23, 2004 18:49

MINING CAN BRING ABOUT ECONOMIC BONANZA -- NERI

MANILA, 23/8 (ANTARA/PNA) --

The Philippines stands to derive a bonanza of economic benefits from a developed mining industry.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Romulo Neri said that for starters, the potential mining wealth in the country is estimated at $840 billion (about P47 trillion) or 10 times the nation,s annual gross domestic product (GDP) and 15 times its total foreign debt.

"The growth of the mining industry is critical in inducing greater economic growth, attracting more investments, creating more jobs and reducing poverty, particularly in the rural areas," Neri said.

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Silver Stocks -- Comparative Valuations Weekly Report #47

By: Jason Hommel, GoldIsMoney.com

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Gold prices high but Australian output low

23aug04

AS GOLD'S allure as a safe-haven investment brightens, Australian gold miners have recorded abnormally low output for a second successive quarter, a survey has found.

They produced 63 tonnes of gold, or two million ounces, in the June 2004 quarter, down 1.5 tonnes on the March 2004 quarter and falling 12 tonnes over the June 2003 quarter.
The survey, by Melbourne consulting group Surbiton Associates, says gold production for 2003-04 was 274 tonnes, or 8.8 million ounces, down 4 per cent on 2002-03.

The results come as the precious metal's attraction increases.

Gold futures surged to a four-month peak in the US on Friday when December gold lifted $US6.20 to $US415 an ounce as record high crude oil prices and inflation fears drew investors to the safe-haven asset.

However, Surbiton managing director Sandra Close said the Australian downturn should only be temporary.

"The last two quarters have suffered the double whammy of fewer tonnes treated and lower ore grades," Dr Close said.

"Despite this, the downturn should only be temporary and the overall production trend is still upwards in the medium term."

Surbiton said Australian March gold quarter production was shrunk by exceptionally wet weather which hampered operations earlier in the year.

It picked up in the June quarter, in terms of tonnage treated, but output was affected by lower gold grades in the ore.

"Many producers have had to treat lower grade stockpiles in order to keep their processing plants running," Dr Close said.

Newmont Mining Corp's Pajingo operation in north Queensland, and Barrick Gold Corp's Plutonic underground mine in Western Australia both experienced difficult ground conditions, which limited normal ore production.

Canada-based global mining giant Placer Dome's Kalgoorlie West operation suffered a reduction in ore sources due to changes in its production scheduling. Its nearby Kanowna Belle operation had delays in processing due to higher sulphur content in the ore.

Dr Close said the lower production was also partly caused by the treatment of lower grade stockpiles at some operations and to plant closures at a couple of operations.

Despite the overall poor result, some operations recorded a significant lift in production for the June quarter.

"Both Newcrest's Cadia operation (in NSW) and Giants Reef's Chariot mine (in the Northern Territory) lifted production by around 50 per cent," Dr Close said.

"Even better was Placer Dome's Henty mine in Tasmania where gold production increased by over 60 per cent to a record 51,425 ounces."

She said the production slowdown should only be temporary with higher grade ore set to be treated and an additional 30 tonnes a year, or one million ounces, due to be commissioned by the end of 2004 or early 2005.

The top producer in the June 2004 quarter was the world's largest gold miner, US-based Newmont Mining Corp, which churned out 152,300 ounces at Tanami and Groundrush in Western Australia, and 206,232 ounces from its 50-50 joint venture with Canada-based Barrick Gold Corp at Kalgoorlie, WA.

South African miner Gold Fields produced 143,650 ounces at St Ives, in WA; Melbourne-based Newcrest Mining made 109,201 ounces at Ridgeway, about 20 kilometres south-west of Orange in NSW; and South Africa-based AngloGold Ashanti recorded 96,710 ounces at Sunrise Dam.

AAP

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http://www.thebulliondesk.com/…t/Reports/Jimmy/Jimmy.htm

Gold eases in early trade – London Bullion Report

23rd August 2004

A test to $49.40 a-barrel for crude oil futures on Friday provided the catalyst for the yellow metals strong close after rising to a high of $413.75 during US trade. The yellow metal began the day around $406.75 and made a test towards the $408 level at the end of Asian trade. Profit taking from European traders capped the move, pushing gold back to $405.30 by the COMEX open. Gold saw a brief dip below $405 once the US session was underway but the rapid gains in oil and news of continued fighting between rebels loyal to Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr and Iraqi and US forces but quickly motored higher, stalling briefly around $409-10, before running on to a high of $413.75. Gold closed firmly at $412.80 but has run into light profit taking so far today, trading back to the $411 area. Having partially detached itself from the dollar over the past week gold now seems to have found a little life of its own, as traders react the inflationary implications of higher oil prices. Gold really needs to hold above the $409-10 level in order to maintain the rally. Resistance should be found between $415-16 but above there we will likely see a quick move towards $420.

Silver was busy on Friday with the metal seeing heavy interest on both sides of the market. The industrial metal began the day around $6.80 and after a slow Asian session began to drift lower as the market reacted to the pressure on gold. Silver dipped to the $6.75 level by the COMEX open but quickly bounced once the US session was underway in reaction to the upwards moves in gold. The industrial metal quickly pushed to a high of $6.98 but failed to conquer the $7 level. Profit taking gradually outweighed the buying, leading the metal back to $6.85 where the market closed the day. Interest overnight has been slow but despite Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showing a small 4m/ozs reduction in the speculative net position to 217.7m/ozs silver is likely to find $7 a tough nut to crack unless gold really breaks higher.

Platinum continued to see a reversal of last weeks early gains as Asian players forced a test of the $845 support. The white metal spent the rest of the day consolidating between $845-55 and has remained within Friday’s trading range so far today after closing the week at $853. Platinum should continue to perform more strongly than sister metal palladium over the coming weeks but the metal may see consolidation back to $825 should the $845 level fail to hold.

Palladium managed to edge above the $220 resistance level over the course of Friday and has held just above the key level so far today but the sustainability of this rise remains to be seen.

James Moore
TheBullionDesk.com

Tel : 01799 516956 / 01536 483063
jimmy@thebulliondesk.com

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Barclays Capital

Findet zum Gold zurueck!

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/…eports/press/barclays.pdf

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Business News

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Time is GMT + 8 hours
Posted: 22 August 2004 1349 hrs

Adapt or die, the order for South African gold mining industry

JOHANNESBURG : South Africa's gold mining sector, for many years a cornerstone of the economy, is looking outside the country's borders for survival, its sparkle diminished by forex regulations, a strong rand and emptying mines.

Some of the world's largest mining giants like Anglogold, Gold Fields and Durban Roodepoort Deep have cast their nets as far as Australia, Fiji and Russia as part of a future plan to continue operations.

Vying for the title of the world's largest gold producer, Anglogold formally merged with Ghanian-based Ashanti in April, trading shares on the New York stock exchange.

Canada's IAMGold last week said it had plans to submit to a friendly takeover by Gold Fields.

Both companies have been successful in branching into Australia with Anglogold Ashanti even eyeing stakes in Russia's Trans-Siberian Gold. Earlier this year Durban Roodepoort Deep bought into Fiji's largest Emperor Gold Mine.

Zitat

"In the last few years foreign exchange controls, the depletion of resources and now a strong local currency have forced the big gold companies to diversify and move beyond the borders of South Africa," said Mike Schussler, an analyst at the Johannesburg-based brokerage T-sec.

Zitat

"And while there has been a relaxation in foreign exchange controls, it still forces companies to list overseas, where they have better access to capital to fund their ventures," Schussler told AFP..

Gold mines in South Africa have produced much of the world's gold since the precious metal was first discovered in the country, near Johannesburg in 1886.

At their peak, in 1970, the mines produced 1,000 tonnes of gold, equivalent to 79 percent of the world's newly mined supply that year.

South Africa is still the world's largest producer of gold, the Johannesburg-based Financial Mail reported recently, "but it mined a mere 375.8 tonnes of gold last year, or 15 percent of world newly mined supply of about 2,593 tonnes."

In 1994, when the country produced 584 tonnes of gold, there were 48 individual operating gold mines listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's (JSE) Securities Exchange.

Zitat

"Now there are just 11, of which only four are major players: Anglogold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Harmony and Durban Roodepoort Deep," the FM added.

Operations in South Africa's deep underground mines are also costly, having to dig deeper and deeper for gold ore, compared to open cast mines in other countries.

And a strong rand -- South Africa's volatile local currency is hovering at around 6.50 to the dollar -- has hit export markets including the mining sector hard.

Zitat

"Our long-term strategy is to diversify away from sole reliance on deep level, hard rock gold mines," said Steve Lenahan, an Anglogold spokesman.

Zitat

"This took us to areas such as Namibia, North and South America, Mali, later Australia and Tanzania and even later Ghana, Guinea and Zimbabwe," he told AFP.

Lenahan said Anglogold's strategy was not to leave South Africa but to "diversify the current mining of ore body."

South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), an affiliate of the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), which claims a membership of around 1.7 million, have warned that diversification should not happen to the detriment of the local labour force.

Since the late 1980s, the number of mineworkers has fallen from more than 500,000 to fewer than 200,000, according to the South African Chamber of Mines.

"You can't fight diversification," said NUM spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana. "It's a reality we have to deal with."

"But it's a question of good management. You cannot have all these ventures abroad while your operations in South Africa suffer," he told AFP.

The country's mining houses are currently looking at various black economic employment ventures involving its mines.

"If it's not done properly, you will have all these ventures overseas and back in South Africa you'll have black economic empowerment companies sitting with a bunch of empty shells for mineshafts," he said.

Lenahan added that Anglogold was in the process of closing down two mines.

Zitat

"But these are mines that have reached the end of the natural lifespan," he said.

- AFP

@Ulfur@Thom

Der Spiegel Bericht zeigt, das wieder ueber Gold nachgedacht werden darf, und ueber dieses wichtige Thema heute mehr geschrieben wird, als frueher. Das finde ich prinzipiell einmal sehr positiv.

Sowas war in den letzten Jahren im Spiegel nicht allzuviel zu erleben. Ob der Author unterschwellig nur seine privaten Ansichten, wie von Thom zwischen den Zeilen gelesen, Assoziierungen von Gold mit Terror, und Kriese an die Leser bringen wollte, oder ob er sogar ganz bewusst diese Verbindungen den Lesern suggerieren wollte kann ich nicht mit Sicherheit erkennen.

Zumindest haette der Author die Frage nach den Besitzern dieses "Gold Schatzes" naeher hinterfragen, oder noch besser recherchieren koennen. Ebenso erwaehnenswert die Frage, warum denn seit 2 Generationen jede staatliche, oder unabhaengige Ueberpruefung dieser "angeblich" dort bei der FED, einer privaten Bank, mit dem Recht Geld aus dem Nichts zu schaffen, und ihrer Funktion als US Zentralbank, im tiefen Keller gelagerten ca. 8000 Tonnen US ?? Gold abgeblockt, und verhindert wird.

Trotzdem glaube ich nicht, dass dieser Spiegel Bericht beim Leser negative Gedanken zum Gold allgemein hervorrufen konnte. Eher das Gegenteil duerfte der Fall sein, so wie es Ulfur anscheinend auch sieht.

Der eine oder andere Leser dieses Spiegelberichtes wird sich vielleicht beim naechten Bank Besuch die Ausgestellten Gold Muenzen mit etwas tieferen Interesse betrachten als noch vor diesem Spiegel Beitrag zum Gold.

Hoffen wir's

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.321gold.com/editori…ilton/hamilton082104.html

Gold/Oil Ratio Extremes

Adam Hamilton

Aug 21, 2004

With crude oil relentlessly marching towards $50 this summer, market commentary is utterly dominated by the potential implications of this major oil upleg. In fact it is rather amusing to see practically every single negative development in every major market blamed on oil, the new universal scapegoat for Wall Street.

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weiter.......

http://www.321gold.com/editori…ilton/hamilton082104.html

Thunderbirdy

Werd es mir ueberlegen, (das mit haeufigeren Ferien) doch waers mir erst einmal Recht die 500.- Dollar Marke beim Gold fallen zu sehen.

Thom

Silber steht ende dieses Jahres aller Voraussicht nach, hoechst wahrscheinlich auf ueber 12 Dollar pro Unze. Naechstes Jahr ist auf Grund der fundamentalen Lage beim Silber (steigendes Produktionsdefizit, Lieferengpaesse, zurueckgehenden, ausbleibenden chinesischen Silber Exporten, oder sogar allfaelligen neto Silber Importen, weiter fallendem US Dollar, und der Wiederentdeckung von Silber als Anlageinstrument, etc.) damit zu rechnen, dass wir beim Silber 2005 Preise von 15.- bis 18.- Dollar pro Unze sehen koennten. Daran, dass sich Google so lange, auf diesem Wahnsinnsnivau oben halten kann, zweifle ich ueberaus stark. Darum sehe ich Google eher schneller bei 20.- Dollar unten, als Silber auf 20.- Dollar steigen kann, hauptsaechlich auch wegen der staendigen Preisbeeinflussungen von den extrem shorten Silber Bullion Handels Seite.

Kennst Du zufaelligerweise einen geigneten Put auf Google?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

@Warren@Thom@Ulfur

Freue mich Euch wieder anzutreffen, und noch mehr, von Euch Insidern und Kennern der Materie, zum aktuellen Geschehen zu lesen.

Lass uns gemeinsam den Gold und Silber Skeptikern, und den vielen unentschlossenen potentiellen neuen Anlegern noch etwas mehr die Augen oeffnen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Na wo sind sie denn die grossen Preis-, und Nachfrage Einbrueche beim Gold?

Wo gibt es nun Oel fuer 30.- Dollar pro Fass/Barrel zu kaufen?

New oil highs spark gold rush

Terry Macalister
Friday August 20, 2004

The Guardian

The growing affluence of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern oil producers from record crude oil prices has triggered huge new consumer demand in the region for an even more precious commodity: gold.
While oil prices yesterday broke new records and reached $47.96 (£26.19) a barrel in New York, the World Gold Council reported an 11% rise in volumes - 25% in dollar terms - during the second quarter, compared with the same period last year.

Demand for gold in Britain fell 5% as consumers cut spending in anticipation of harsher interest rate rises, but it leaped 12% in Saudi Arabia, while the UAE and other Gulf states saw an 11% rise.

China and Vietnam showed 30% and 50% rises respectively, but these figures seemed better because the Sars virus depressed demand in 2003.

Other factors helping the overall global demand rise in tonnage terms was stronger global economic growth, the relative absence of price volatility and continuing concerns about the long-term commercial and political outlook.

However, there have also been big promotional pushes in markets such as China, where a television advertising blitz has been launched.

"We believe our promotional activities have clearly helped to boost demand in major markets such as Turkey, China and India," said James Burton, the chief executive of the WGC.

The price of gold rose in New York by more than $3 per ounce to reach $410 yesterday, with traders saying it was being boosted by a combination of the faltering dollar and booming oil prices.

The $47.96 a barrel for US light crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up about 70 cents on the closing price the night before, and came despite reassuring developments in the Middle East.

Iraqi oil minister Thamer al-Ghadhban said his country was prepared to resume pumping its capacity of 1.7m barrels a day soon from its level of 1m barrels as southern production came back on stream.

The latest rally in the price of crude started with Wednesday's report from the US energy department confirming falling gasoline stocks while supply disruption concerns remain in Russia and Venezuela.

The soaring price of crude has worried economists, who feel it will damage world economic recovery. While many have predicted that prices will soon breach the $50 per barrel level, some analysts believe the supply fears are being exaggerated by speculators.
(Och, nun ist nicht das rieseige Handelbilanz Defizit der USA, der olle Dollarpreisverfall, der Nachfrage Boom aus China, oder die foerderunwillige(faehige!) OPEC, sondern nur die boesen Spekulanten schuldig an den hohen Oelpreisen! TG)

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

Irgendwann gehen die schoensten Zeiten zuende!

Ohne Computer, Internet, oder Zeitungen zu leben war einfacher als zuerst befuerchtet. Einfach eine tolle naturnahe, erlebnisreiche Zeit die ich die letzten zwei Monate verbringen konnte.

Habe oefters an Euch alle hier im Gold Seiten Forum denken muessen, und mich gefragt, ob die Meinungen zu Gold und Silber immer noch interessiert gelesen, und diskutiert werden, oder ob die Geschehnisse der vergangenen 2 Monate rund ums Gold und Silber Geschehen, den Leuten hier die Freude so stark vermiest hat , dass sie ihr Angagement in die Edelmetalle in Frage stellen.

Wie ich sehe sind die meisten User und Leser immer noch voll dabei, und sehen die Sache des Goldes, und Silber weiterhin sehr positiv.
Das freut mich sehr. Noch mehr freue ich mich an der Tatsache, dass Gold und Silber trotz allen negativen Unkenrufen, Preisbeeinflussungsversuchungen, und Interventionen, endlich wieder weiter nach oben unterwegs sind.

Mir solls auch recht sein, und freue mich darauf, dass die Gold und Silber Aktien die naechsten Wochen ihren Rueckstand ebenfalls endlich aufholen. Zeit waere es ja, fundamental spricht sehr vieles dafuer, und im Vergleich mit den 100 Dollar die fuer eine Google Aktie bezahlt werden sind die meisten Gold-, und Silber Minen Aktien immer noch geradezu dreck billig.

Werde versuchen ab Montag hier im Thread, wieder etwas aktiv zum Theme Gold und Silber Geschehen beizutragen.

Schoenes Wochenende

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Die Richtung stimmt!

Der Goldreis ist nicht gefallen, er ist gestiegen!

Mal ehrlich, warum sollte er auch fallen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20040615_783.html

Iraq Pipeline Explosions Cut Oil Exports
Two Explosions on Pipelines in Southern Iraq Cut Oil Exports by Half in South, Oil Company Says

The Associated Press

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BAGHDAD, Iraq June 15, 2004 — Explosions ripped through two pipelines Tuesday in southern Iraq, cutting oil exports from the south by half, the Iraqi South Oil Co. said. Officials blamed Saddam Hussein loyalists and al-Qaida for the attacks.
Firefighters were able to control the fire that broke out on pipelines in the Hamdan area just north of Faw, but the damage was so extensive that pumphing had to be halted, said South Oil official Samir Jassim.

Zitat

"We hold Saddam followers and al-Qaida responsible for the two attacks," Jassim said.

The first explosion early Tuesday set the pipeline on fire and was followed later by another blast. The two pipelines export crude oil from a pumping station called Zubeir 1 to a crude oil depot in Faw, 40 miles southeast of Basra.

The blasts cut exports from the south by one half, Jassim said.

Contracts of U.S. light crude for July delivery are up 49 cents at $38.08 per barrel in New York. July contracts of Brent crude are up 8 cents at $35.57 in London.

The Iraqi attack has been responsible for "all of the movement off the bottom" by oil prices in Tuesday's trading, said Paul Horsnell, the head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London.

Zitat

"If oil flows to Gulf export terminals have been interrupted, there's not mush storage space out there for tankers to continue loading for long," Horsnell said. "The Iraqi Oil Ministry had aimed at exporting 2 million barrels a day in June. This looks unlikely now."

Horsnell said the Iraqis would be lucky to average 1.5 million-1.6 million barrels per day in exports from the south in light of this attack.

Coalition officials fear that insurgents will step up attacks on infrastructure targets prior to the June 30 transfer of sovereignty to an interim government to undermine public confidence both in the U.S. occupation authority and the new regime.

Iraq's oil pipelines are frequently attacked.

In May, a main southern export pipeline was set ablaze in the Faw peninsula, stopping the flow of crude oil through one of the lines feeding the Basra oil terminal, a key export point.

That attack forced Iraq to reduce exports to 1.1 million barrels a day from the south at a time when oil markets are highly concerned about tight supplies.

photo credit and caption: Iraq's Interim President Ghazi al-Yawer walks with an unidentified foreign bodyguard after addressing a news conference in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad June 15, 2004. Yawer told journalists that the United States is "very keen" in handing over the ousted leader Saddam Hussein to the Iraqi government for trial. (AP Photo/Ceerwan Aziz/POOL)

Copyright 2004 The Associated Press.