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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
Everywhere you turn, the gold signs were bullish today.
*Crude oil closed at $40.77, up another 71 cents. For the past six weeks gold and oil have gone in opposite directions to a substantial degree. This is a historic anomaly thanks to The Gold Cartel. What will the cabal forces do to gold if oil rockets closer to $50 per barrel? Heaven help us if the terrorists to more damage to the world’s oil pipelines in the weeks to come.
*A shocker:
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit grew in March to a record $46 billion as the highest oil prices in more than two decades and increased consumer spending boosted the value of imports, the Commerce Department reported in Washington.
The gap in goods and services trade comes after a deficit of $42.1 billion in February. Imports and exports surged to all-time highs, and the deficit with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was the biggest ever.
You have heard this one before. In 1998 Goldman Sachs forecasted the US trade deficit would grow to $19 billion from $12 billion per month. This produced gasps from the Wall Street crowd. No a $46 billion gets an, "oh well." The dollar barely budges and gold is clocked. –
We are living way beyond our means in America.
*The Working Group on Financial Markets must have been in there somewhere holding up the dollar after a trade report like that. It only fell .40 to 91.44, while the euro only rose .47 to 118.98. Still, the dollar was down, not up, and certainly not a reason for gold to sell off like it did.
*The bond market closed in new low ground at 104 7/32, down 11/32. This market is too big for The Working Group on Financial markets to control. Too many bond vigilantes out there who have spotted the obvious growing inflation in the US.
*The stock market was in real trouble when gold was still trading. Then, Santa Maria, another Hail Mary rally by the DOW. The Working Group on Financial Markets went all out today in another shameless attempt to keep normal market forces from taking hold. Forget oil going to $50. Forget continually rising long rates. Forget the trade deficit. Forget the Iraq disaster. The US stock market has the PPT going for it, just as we have The Gold Cartel sitting all over the gold market.
Ah ha, here it is:
Bill,
"In case you missed it, Barton Biggs (formerly of Morgan Stanley) was on CNBS earlier this afternoon telling the world that the market was oversold and we should witness an explosive rally in the next few days. Then like magic, it began to happen. After being down 160 pts., the Dow is closing positive. A random walk?"
Biggs is a stooge for The Working Group on Financial Markets. A couple of years ago he raved on CNBC about Peter Palmedo’s gold report (PP is a visible and successful gold fund manager) which predicted $500+ gold I believe. Gold popped. The next morning he came back on CNBC to say he really didn’t know what he was talking about.
He sure knew what he was talking about today. With all the news gold friendly, it tanks. With all the news stock market bearish, it pulls an incredible rally. If you don’t get it yet that BOTH markets were managed today, GATA has a bridge for you to buy.
The DOW came back late in the day from 160 down to close up 26 at 10,045, while the DOG came back from 55 lower to finish at 1926, down 6.
If you would like to read more on the secrets of the PPT, got a good one for you:
May 12, 2004
THE SECRETS OF THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM
http://worldvisionportal.org/wvpforum/viewtopic.php?t=204
Already I have received more angry letters about the PPT and Gold Cartel than I can ever remember.
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve added today May 12th 2004 $6.75 Billion in temporary repos and will deliver a permanent open market operation tomorrow. The pool stands at $38.42 Billion.
The DOW's 30-Day moving average is now level and must be watched to see if it dips, but it still isn't too far away from its target track. Combined with the modest repo funding I continue to be biased strongly towards a DOW rise into the Summer. The Fed hasn't lost control...yet.
The latest down draft in gold is clearly over, signaling an end (for the moment) to the remarkable buying opportunity in physical gold.
The cartel's weakest moments may logically occur during their counterattacks since they consume increased physical from their dwindling stocks. There is no way to know exactly how much they have left, but it is reasonable to guess that their position is weakest during the highest drain rate periods. Moreover, I have previously noted that the cartel needs refined gold with which to continue their intervention. Central banks don't always have refined gold of the required purity. In this requirement they compete with regular bullion demand which has therefore severely taxed the capacity of the world's bullion refiners.
If it were possible to gain information on the refiner's operations it would be a very important achievement in the war for gold intelligence. GATA would be grateful for input.
Mike
michael.bolser@verizon.net
Chuck checks in and notes:
You can tell when the market is ready to rally by the put-call ratio. After the rally has punished the shorts, the market resumes its downtrend. This has the effects of preventing profitable shorts and it keeps the hopes up of the lemmings who don't see what's happening.
Notice the bond market when the rally started! Not much longer for this foolishness. We have a "rendezvous with destiny....
I'm not surprised that the golds opened higher and then sold off. It came on news. I think that what we will see is as the market collapses the golds will rise and heave and then at the right moment will explode.
We're getting close to panic time. How can anyone sell their gold shares at this historic moment?
Your labor and faithfulness to the truth will be rewarded. Chuck
Houston’s Dan Norcini puts it in perspective this morning, well before gold was bombed:
Hey Bill:
Take a gander at the following short blurb on Reuters this morning. More obfuscation and denial. These guys at the Fed remind me of that scene in the original "Planet of the Apes" in which the three ape panel of judges are a caricature of the "See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" trio.
I submit that any individual who 'sees no worrisome buildup of inflation' either has an elevator that doesn't go all the way to the top or has been accustomed to speaking lies for so long that they actually are beginning to believe their own nonsense.
Also, I wonder what he means by high energy prices being "transitory in nature". No doubt consumers will draw great comfort from those words of inspiration as they watch the wheels spinning on the gas pump like some sort of Vegas slot machine. We should all sleep better knowing we have such men of insight and keen intuition at the helm of our economic ship of state....
And to think this is representative of the people who are fond of meeting in rooms with no windows to work their magic alchemy and come up with Fed policy. "Scotty, beam me up."
Dan
Fed can raise rates at gradual pace-Moskow
NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow on Wednesday said the central bank intended to raise U.S. interest rates at a gradual pace, though much depended on developments in the economy.
Speaking on CNBC, Moskow said the types of inflationary pressures seen so far this year, such as higher oil prices, were transitory in nature and he saw no worrisome buildup of inflation.
Asked about risks to the economy, he cited employment as the major concern though he thought the recent pickup in jobs growth was likely to continue. Moskow is not a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year. –END-
Some interesting thoughts from Kiwi land down under:
Hi Bill:
Another disappointing day with Gold dropping $7 from its high after such Gold friendly news. So....
I have a question which I know you cannot answer but perhaps you or Mike Bolser or Reg Howe might give us your thoughts.
HAS THE 1st WASHINGTON AGREEMENT BEEN BROKEN???
My thoughts:
We know that there are two gold markets-one Paper-one Physical-that they interact, that the Paper market can determine the Gold price short term but not long term. In other words if the Paper market had its way Gold would
never rise but since it has (at least in US Dollar terms) we know physical demand rules in the end.
Over the past few years there are been three major Gold drops.
1.) Right after the Washington Agreement (WA) was announced Gold exploded upwards and then was crushed to a new low. They faced the Abyss, they said.
2.) Last year, Feb 2003, Gold hit $390/oz just before the Iraq War began and then proceeded to crash to $317. The crash coincided with a UN speech given by Colin Powell and a meeting between Bush, Blair and Spanish Prime Minister Aznar.
3.) This year Gold hit $430 only to be crushed again down to $370 (so far) after numerous stories appeared including one that the French were planning to sell 500 tonnes over the next 5 years.
We know the Central Banks could not possibly control the Gold price with a measly 400 tonnes as allowed under the WA. The structural deficit exceeds that amount by quite a bit. We also know that to knock Gold back $70 per oz requires a lot more than paper Gold promises. There is only one possible source of enough Gold with the motivation and the will to accomplish this and that is Central Bank Gold.
So let's go back to each of the 3 cases cited above.
1.) You had the following story in a recent Midas: "Dear friend: 16624.488 ounces of gold from the Central Bank of Spain are missing from its vaults after 1998. According with the Spanish Tribunal de Cuentas they are distributed as follows: 5.955.430 Fort Knox. 6.077.211 Bank of England. 4.591.847 BIS. In my opinion they are leased. This information
was published in Diario el Mundo, Monday 1 of May 2001 page 49. Francisco Ruiz de Alda"
Now 16.6 million oz is approx 500 tonnes and note the date of the article and the comment "missing from its vaults after 1998". Could Spain have supplied this Gold to help crush the Sept 1999 rally?
2.) Again Spain! Why would Aznar, despite overwhelming popular opinion against involvement with the US and UK, decide to send troops to Iraq? My guess is that Spain needs oil. The Iraq war is about control of Middle East oil. The deal: Spain sends 3000 troops and sells 500 tonnes of Gold and they get on the list of customers for Iraqi Oil.
3.) France! The gold bugs favorite player because they are supposedly strong Gold holders. Well suddenly they change policy. Why? Did they buy their way on that Iraqi Oil list with 500 tonnes of Gold.
One other possibility: Each run up in the Gold Price gets crushed at 350 euros. The Euro Gold chart is worth posting. Would something real bad take place with Gold derivatives if 350 Euros gets taken out??
I realize all this is pure speculation. Any thoughts?
Cheers from Auckland, Ed
While the regular stock market was rescued by the PPT, the gold shares were taken after even when gold was holding up, most likely by the same crowd. The HUI traded at 184.12 in the very early going and it was all downhill from there on in. It settled at 175.49, down 1.96. The XAU fell .78 to 80.70. The gold shares sold off near the bell as the DOW was roaring its way back.
I have to believe our entire financial system is slowly but surely unraveling. Between issuing doctored up financial reports on the economy, propping up the US stock market and crushing gold, the financial powers in the US are turning up the steam on the financial world pressure crooker. These manipulations are going to contribute more stress to the system as the markets are not allowed to function with what reality dictates and are building up all kinds of imbalances. One day the dam is going to break.
Therefore, we are required to have patience and suffer in the short-term in order to make a fortune down the road. Just the way it is these days!
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
The latest from Mahendra:
Dear Members,
I am enjoying my stay in the beautiful city of SANTA BARBARA. I have found a lot of peace here, which plays a key part in meditation. However, I know that metal community is not at peace especially those who are fully invested.
A lot of news and many emails are being exchanged concerning the future of metals, oil, market, elections, China etc... All are trying to apply their thoughts and calculations in regard to the future coming time and its possible impact. We all know that the future is hidden and that it has millions of ways or options to which it can turn for individuals or the world.
I love astrology because I want to flow with the time and not against the time. If I come wrong I try to look for the wave and my retrace my steps to find out where and why I went wrong. This is because when we realise our mistakes, then the next time we always take steps to flow carefully along and not against.
In my book I strongly recommended to sell metal positions and stocks at around 28th March and buy back around 10th May. This is what I wrote eight months back while writing the 2004 World & Financial Prophecies book. I was in India for a while, specifically from 24th March to 16th April and was really unable to guide you on time. Anyhow the past is past and gone and so we must look ahead towards the future.
Here is guidance for the next week:
Predictions from 9th May to 13th of May:
Gold:
Last week I expected Thursday and Friday to be bad days for metals and it acted just like that. This week looks very promising except for Monday and Friday. On Monday one can put money in metals and hold till opening prices of Friday morning in New York. If they open weak then one can sell in the morning and buy back in the last 10 minutes of market closing.
When Monday’s show starts prices of gold will remain stable but they could fall 1 or 2 dollars in Europe.
From Tuesday, a very strong rally will start in gold stocks and this rally will continue until Friday morning.
During this week gold will trade from $378 to $394.
Avoid all kinds of rumours, news and articles which say that the metals Bull Run is over because I still see a very strong rise for the next 42 days from 17th May.
This year I still see gold reaching $525 to $545 and also next year there will be strong gold prices. Metal stocks will soon trade on another new high and this means that they will bounce back very strongly from the current down ward trend. I don't read commentaries by experts on strong or weak dollar or inflation or strong economy etc...and neither am I PERSONALLY supporting gold. I just predict what I see and that is what I have been predicting for the last few years on gold, silver and other metals, oil, weak dollar and rise of technology in 2003 and now crash of USA market.
My job is just to guide you but for the first time permit me request that you buy metals stocks- let people continue to speak of weak metals.
Silver:
Silver will still remain of an uncertain trend until the 15th of May but this price is a bargain or discounted price (or silver is in sale)for those who are looking to a one month investment plan because at the same time during the next month silver will trade around $7.00. I have also previously said that below $5.80 is not the real price according to astrological calculations and that it will soon bounce back and we won't see these current prices again in the year 2004 as well for next 42 months.
Palladium and Platinum:
I will still not recommend investing in both these metals but also don't short them.
Stock Market:
The last two weeks my predictions were a little bit positive on the market but it didn't happen. This means that we are near to the fulfilment of a major prediction on world financial market- (As you all know I am predicting the worst crash which will start in the market from June and last for few years.).
Currencies:
After achieving 98% of accuracy in last 32 months, I have been off track on currencies for the last 8 weeks and so I have decided to watch this week and try to go into more details on currencies.
Coffee:
I have been watching this product very closely because my planetary calculations favoured coffee in 2004. We may see it crossing $100 in a few months and it could reach $140 a few days after crossing $100.
OIL
My astrological calculation came very accurate on oil. It will hit new high of $41.80 and then after we will see correction of $4.00. I still hold my prediction for oil reaching $50 soon.
In my book "2004 World & Financial Prophecies" page 100/101 few line says:
Oil and gold ought to be the two key areas in which long term investors should focus in this century. In 2004, I expect oil prices to reach $50 per barrel and up to $100 per barrel within next 30 months. The following twelve and half years will witness a continuous rise of oil prices because of planet Saturn.
The year 2004 shows a completely different scenario. The prices will gradually move up until 22 June, after which they will gain hugely, making a dramatic leap of between 40% and 60% for the rest of the year.
World Events:
The bad period for the world will end on the 16th of May and till this date we pray for a peaceful period.
Just a small note: It is profoundly unfortunate that our leaders today are engaged in promoting hatred and instituting unhealthy scenarios in this world made by the creator. Though all religions bid us to avoid bad or negative KARMA but political and religious leaders (with their bad KARMA) are forcing this beautiful world onto a destructive path where only the ego, hatred and revenge will take birth. It is such a sad situation that human beings are fighting one another, each one trying to dominate the other.... Is it for this reason that the creator created us? Its looks like that love, peace and caring for each other is fast disappearing. Is this because of bad KARMA? I think lets start you and me positive KARMA path and we never now may tomorrow world will follow...
I pray and wish that the creator can apply some magic or perfume in the air which would turn everybody's mind towards the path of love...love...love… and peace...peace...peace.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra