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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
The only market even more predictable than the gold capping was the PPT coming in to take the DOW back above 10,000, just as it looked ready to flush itself into the toilet. The DOW leaped 88 to 10,077. The only explanation for the gain is the Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT) said no way we are going to allow the DOW below 10,000 going into the Presidential debate on Thursday night. It certainly wasn’t an easing of the oil price which had the DOW roaring. Oil closed at $49.90, up another 26 cents per barrel, after taking out $50. It certainly wasn’t this disappointing news either:
10:00 September Consumer Confidence reported 96.8 vs. consensus 99.5
Prior reading was revised to 98.7 from 98.2.
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The DOG was dragged higher, closing at 1870, up a weakish 10.
Crude oil was the talk of the town, as it should be after taking out $50 per barrel. The latest stimulus for the price of oil advancing:
NIGERIA REBEL CHIEF DECLARES ARMED STRUGGLE FOR OIL--AP
NIGERIA REBEL LEADER SEEKS CONTROL OF OIL REGION--AP
NIGERIA REBEL LEADER SAYS OIL WORKERS ARE TARGETS--AP
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The bullish oil news was countered by the Saudis:
Saudi Arabia to raise oil prod uction to 11Mbpd from current 9.5bpd --
Dow Jones
The increase will take effect within weeks, according to an unnamed Oil Ministry official. November WTI crude is trading off the overnight highs, quoted last at $50.10.
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Whether the Saudis can deliver is debatable. Even if so, word is the refineries who refine the heavy Saudi oil are already running flat out.
Mahendra this weekend:
WORLD EVENTS
Tuesday or Wednesday of this week does not portend good for the world. Some kind of natural disaster could befall us, though my vision is not clear concerning where it will occur and of exactly what nature it will be. Let us therefore be mindful and pray that the week may smoothly pass.
He came as close as you can get:
13:27 Follow-up: earthquake impact appears to have been minor in SF; may have been stronger in central CA
We heard several reports that an earthquake just hit SF, but that it appeared to be felt only modestly there. We have also heard that it was stronger to the south of SF, and Dow Jones is reporting that a strong earthquake struck central California.
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13:53 Follow-up x4: USGS now lists Parkfield earthquake at 6.0
Newswires indicate that there are no reports of injuries or damage thus far. The USGS site indicates that there have been more than 30 aftershocks, with the strongest being 5.0.
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One of the reasons the US consumer is struggling:
Health Insurance Costs Rise Faster Than Wages
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Health insurance premiums for workers are rising around three times faster than their wages, and health costs eat up a quarter of earnings for more than 14 million Americans, according to a survey on Tuesday.
While benefits are being cut, health insurance premiums are rising, the report from the nonprofit Families USA found.
"Working families were squeezed by runaway health care costs over the past four years," said Families USA executive director Ron Pollack.
"As a result, workers are paying much more in premiums but are receiving less health coverage, wages are being depressed; and millions of people have lost health coverage entirely."
The cost of health insurance premiums rose by nearly 36 percent on average from 2000 to 2004 in 35 states, said the group, which bills itself as a nonpartisan watchdog on health care issues. Average earnings rose just 12 percent over the same time.
The Families USA report found that health insurance plans provided by employers are covering fewer health services and workers are paying higher deductibles and copayments.
"Family health premiums paid by employers and workers rose from $7,028 in 2000 to $9,320 in 2004. The average amount paid by workers for this coverage rose from $1,433 to $1,947 during that period -- an increase of 35.9 percent," the group said in a statement.
"And, the number of Americans who had total health costs that consumed more than one-quarter of their earnings rose from 11.6 million in 2000 to 14.3 million in 2004 -- an increase of almost 23 percent. The overwhelming majority of these people (10.7 million) had health insurance."…
-END-
"What, Me Worry" Secretary Snow will have none of it. All is well:
Snow says no risk of sharp U.S. economic slowdown
WASHINGTON, Sept 28 (Reuters) -
Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday said that, notwithstanding weaker consumer confidence, he did not think the U.S. economy was at risk of a slowdown.
"I think that's very unlikely," Snow said in response to questions on CNBC television. "I think we're going to continue on a good path with the American economy."
Snow was interviewed from Reno, Nevada, where he met local businessmen to say the economic recovery remained on solid footing….
-END-
While copper sold off a bit today on Comex, the copper shorts are gradually being decimated:
Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose for the second day in London to its highest in five months as falling inventory and rising demand spurred hedge funds to buy the metal used in electric cable and water pipes.
Inventory monitored by the London Metal Exchange had its biggest one-day fall in 7-1/2 years yesterday. Consumers are withdrawing metal from storage amid surging Chinese and U.S. demand.
``We are seeing fund buying coming into the market supported by strong fundamentals,'' said Angus Macmillan, an analyst at Prudential Bache International in London, in a telephone interview.
Copper for delivery in three months on the LME rose $15, or 0.5 percent, to $2,968 a metric ton at 11:11 a.m. local time, its highest since April 19. It gained 1.4 percent yesterday.
Copper inventory in LME-approved warehouses fell 0.5 percent to 94,275 tons, the exchange said in a daily report, extending this year's decline to 78 percent. The stockpile fell 3.7 percent yesterday, the biggest drop since April 1997.
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An interesting hedge move:
11:31 HNR's Venezuelan affiliate puts on 2005 crude oil hedge (16.41 +0.42)
Harvest Vinccler says it purchased a WTI crude oil put at $44.40, at a cost of $3.95/barrel, putting an effective floor price at $40.45. HNR says the put has the economic effect of hedging approximately 10.4K barrels of oil per day.
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Sleuthing on The World Gold Council:
Hi Bill:
As you know the World Gold Council Website includes a Statistics section that among other things has a Table of World Gold Holdings. This table is quite useful in that it supposedly lists the Official Gold Holding of each reporting nation.
The archive at the WGC site goes back to March 2000. The Table of World Gold Holdings was updated every month from March 2000 until Dec 2002 except for July 2000, April and August 2001 and December 2002. In other words with the odd exception there were monthly reports.
Then things changed. During 2003 there were reports for only 3 months, February, July and December and this year we've only had reports for March and July.
Now there may be an innocent explanation for this change but at a time of great stress in the global monetary system, at a time when Official statistics of all sorts are either obviously doctored or completely suppressed, we might justifiably wonder if something more sinister is going on.
Bill, as you pointed out several weeks ago in a Sunday Special Midas, the Official Gold Holdings as listed in these WGC reports are obviously incorrect. The numbers do not add up or more precisely they add up to more than they should. Perhaps our Official friends are becoming aware that the game is ending and the less said the better. The less forensic evidence the better.
Cheers from Auckland
More on the World Gold Council:
Bill,
While this hackneyed story gets repeated once again I was surprised to learn the IMF wants to sell part of ITS 85 billion in gold? Isn't that about 6,641 tons at $400 an ounce? Is that a mistake? I wasn't aware they owned that much. This story always entertains me because of the simplicity of the deceit. If they truly wanted to forgive poor countries indebtedness why not merely GIVE them the gold and let them pay back the IMF with their local fiat. Then they would be free to rebuild their economy with a gold backed currency. Oops, that might piss off a few banksters.
James McShirley
Lease rates heads-up from Rhody early this morning:
Kitco finally updated their lease rate chart. There has been nothing since last Friday, and that data was rubbish, as it showed no change in silver, platinum or palladium for all terms.
Not bloody likely, so I have not commented on them lately.
Now we see a rise across all terms in silver so that silver lease rates are double to triple those of gold. This is more normal.
I notice that rates for gold declined across all terms. I think this is signalling a breakout for gold as borrowers abandon the leased gold market in anticipation of a rise in the metal's price.
We shall see if this trend continues for gold. The rise in silver on the other hand (and the increases across all terms rose by about one third, so it's significant) signals that the entities that are trying to cap silver still think they can, using leased metal.
Regards,
Rhody
Goldman Sachs is really going out on a limb these days. For three years they were neutral to bearish as gold rose from $252 to $430. Unreal! Today they really stuck their necks out with a bold call :
09:00 Goldman recommends buying gold stocks ahead of G7 meeting on 10/1
Firm believes any statement supporting flexibility in currency, mainly those aimed at Asia, could be construed as bearish for the dollar, and consequently positive for gold prices. Goldman sees Q4 forecast at $420/oz. for gold, mainly due to expectations of $1.32 price for euro/dollar.
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Deutsche Bank was one of the defendants in Reg Howe’s suit against The Gold Cartel for gold price manipulation. They are pros at it. Now this:
Deutsche Bank under investigation - BBC News
Germany's biggest bank - Deutsche Bank - is being investigated on suspicion it may have manipulated its balance sheet.
The investigation is in connection to a long-running legal dispute with the now-defunct Kirch media group.
Deutsche Bank is alleged not to have set aside provisions to cover damages and compensation that a court ordered it to pay to Kirch.
Kirch imploded in 2002 shortly after Deutsche's former boss questioned its creditworthiness in a TV interview.
Violation
A probe had been launched against "Deutsche Bank officials", a spokesman for state prosecutors said, without providing any further details.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/3693122.stm
Published: 2004/09/27 09:34:34 GMT
-END-
Since we are on the subject of Germany, some MARVELOUS input from one of our GERMAN Café members:
dear sirs,
just seen in german bloomberg tv an interesting interview concerning the POG with martin siegel (peh investment).
(28.09 at ca. 15.30 local time)
some highlights:
- sees fair value at minimum 600 without the central bank sales (which are used to suppress pog - example gold sales of BOE)
- price target if central banks sell only 250-300 t/year ->500 usd
- he says that fed and the US would "punish" every other central bank who
would buy gold or even stop selling any further gold in fear of getting
out of control of the dollar devaluation.
- the rise in chinese demand
- he raised even some of the 3rd world issues concerning gold price
suppression (situation in SA as example).
cant remember ever seen such explicit lyrics in german bloomberg before.
i really appreciate your work!
regards
alexander scheid
Now that is commentary on the real gold market, not the drivel we receive here in the US from CNBC and Bloomberg. Martin Siegel sounds like GATA.
The gold shares went on a tear on HEAVY volume, confirming last week’s dramatic breakout. The XAU jumped 3.07 to 99.78, while the HUI rocketed up 7.89 to 223.89.
The HUI is running
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8
While the big cap gold shares are on a roll, many of the exploration companies continue in the doldrums and can’t catch a bid. This has to change in the near future. It already has for one of the most outstanding gold exploration companies anywhere in the world – that being Seabridge Gold, a huge GATA supporter and a firm who has accumulated 14 million+ ounces of higher cost gold resources. Therefore, Seabridge(SA) will be one of the HUGE winners when gold takes out $430 for good. It is already shaping up for a monster run to the upside, closing today at $3.40, up 23 cents or 7.3%.
Seabridge
http://new.stockwatch.com/swne…utilit_snapsh_result.aspx
Taking the lazy man’s way out on my daily outlook. Same as it has been for three weeks. A review of my ending MIDAS commentaries over that period of time:
9/7 I expect gold and silver to take off from here in the weeks ahead and will be dead wrong if that doesn’t happen. Will I be shocked? Course not, we know who is out there doing all they can to keep this from happening and why. My bet is the physical market is going to give them fits and overpower them as September rolls on.
9/8 The incredibly bullish news brought to your attention over the past many days has not gone away. Neither have the Arab, Chinese and Indian cash market buyers. The case for owning old is going off the charts. I will be stunned and dead wrong if gold and silver are not FLYING by next week!
September 9 - Gold $397.90 down $1– Silver $6.14 down 2 cents
There is every reason for both gold and silver to be headed for the moon. ONLY the constant price-capping interference of The Gold Cartel and friends is keeping their prices from doing so. By next week we ought to see more signs the cabal is in trouble and gold and silver on their way to MUCH higher levels.
9/10 No change from me. The gold fundamentals remains a "10+++++." They don’t get any better, as brought to your attention the past few weeks. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. When gold does make its move, many of those fundamental reasons or market developments will be cited as reasons why.
9/13 Gold and silver share investments remain THE historic investments of a lifetime and few seem to notice or care.
