Wheaton River [WHT] and seeking to parry a hostile bid from Golden
delete
Star [GSS], IAMGold [IAG] went in search of a white knight. It returns to shareholders as a mulatto prince with a proposed $2.1 billion transaction with Gold Fields [GFI] to create the seventh largest gold producer by production and sixth by market value.
The deal is in many respects a revision of the failed attempt by Franco-Nevada to buy Gold Fields in 2000. That was inteIAMGold deal also carries hallmarks of the subsequent Franco-Nevada Normandy transaction involving the Midas Mine. That deal proved to be the slip knot that released Normandy to Newmont [NEM] instead of original bidder AngloGold [AU]. Also notable is that it mimics speculation about how Norilsk Nickel [NILSY] might have gained control of Gold Fields.
Almost half a decade later, Gold Fields International has been revived with chairman Chris Thompson back at the helm.
This time it looks set to succeed and the primary force that blocked the first transaction, foreign exchange controls, will now propel the second to completion because Gold Fields shareholders at home and abroad want less of South Africa.
Not NorGold
In the process, Gold Fields nimbly takes care of the not-yereduced to a rather sterile stake of 14% in Gold Fields International and 17% of the South African assets. It seems likely to be diluted by a thousand cuts unless it can strike a deal that meets the accretion benchmarks set by this deal.
NorNickel is under further pressure given that it has lost one-seventh of the value of its blitz investment in Gold Fields earlier this year.
Thompson quickly and repeatedly rebuffed suggestions that the deal had NorNickel in mind. It may not have been at the forefront of strategy, but it had to be tactical considelooking to acquire more of the Tarkwa and Damang mines, and IAMGold resolves that as well as delivers a gentle coup d’grace to NorNickel.
NorNickel’s power has been split and the portions it retains no longer carry any threat of an overhang or control bloc. Even if the Russsian votes against the transaction, it is improbably that it can carry sufficient votes against a domestic and foreign shareholder base bursting to escape the perennial SA discount.
The only credible threat NorNickel could now mount is to ally with Harmony [HMY] to raid all of Gold Fields. If Harmony could bag NorNickel’s current 20%, then it could launch a bid that might be competitive. Alas, the timing is all wrong because of the rand and SA discounting.
Three swings and you're in
Gold Fields gets a third bite at a rerating since SA emerged from Apartheid isolation, and it doesn’t look like such an orphan relative to the “big three”.
The original Franco-Nevada deal was founded on the premise that simply redomiciling ounces would achieve stock multiple expansion. Unable to prove it with Franco, Thompson succeeded in 2002 with a spectacularly well-timed shift of the Gold Fields ADR from Nasdaq to the NYSE. In the interim, he had thwarted at least two approaches from AngloGold that were priced at about $5 a share.
IAMGold shareholders may be a little concerned about being injected into what is for now a South African vehicle. However, there is a large safety net in the Toronto and American Stock Exchange listings. It is also inevitable that Gold Fields International will go in search of another transaction that will take it to the 3.5 million ounces a year within three years target it has posted. Also, the new vehicle is not subject to the same SA Reserve Ba[NCM], or Kinross [KGC]. A series of smaller swallows taking in developing assets or intermediates could also do the trick. Alternatively, Gold Fields International must look very attractive to Barrick [ABX] or Placer Dome [PDG] which lack a substantial foothold in Ghana.
Newcrest has lately been complaining of the national ratings discounts. It will discover, like Normandy, that you can’t unlock that value by moaning, only by taking your company to the senior capital markets.
Overall, IAMGold shareholders should be well pleased. The strategy to become an operator is secured, as is, handsomely, the 1 million ounce a year production target. It is a superior arrangement compared with the Wheaton deal, and it should easily sidestep Golden Star.
Golden Star chief executive, Peter Bradford, told Mineweb that the company will probably respond on Thursday.