Goodwin sees gold at $500/oz
By: Alec Hogg
Posted: '19-NOV-04 14:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
MINEWEB: There’s a wonderful Nedbank ad a few years ago, where they showed a guy playing pool and he looked up at the fellow who was standing next to him and said “gold, take it from me, gold”. Allan Seccombe is one of our reporters here at Moneyweb and he’s been following gold which went to a 16-year high today Alan?
ALLAN SECCOMBE: Yes, it did. It broke through $446/oz. I spoke to some analysts in London and South Africa today, and they reckon gold could go up as high as $450, which could be quite a stiff resistance level. Just before I came into the studio it was at $441 an ounce. Analysts are reckoning the weakness of the dollar is playing quite a large role in this. The dollar is about 1.29 against the euro at the moment. Barclays Capital in London reckon it could go to about 1.32, which would take gold up to $450, if not more expensive than that. There’s also been quite a lot of buying in gold coming through ahead of the launch of a gold-backed exchange-traded fund in New York and some analysts reckon the price could come down once those ETFs have listed. The interesting thing is that the rand has also firmed, and this has also kept the rand price of gold at around R86,000 a kilogram.
MINEWEB: Thanks to Allan Seccombe, one of our reporters at Moneyweb. Well tonight’s top story is gold. Our gold guru Nick Goodwin is in the studio – and we’re going to be crossing to Florida in a little while as well, to Tom O’Brien of Tiger Financial News Network over there, one of the big names or drivers of retail investors in gold. But Nick, let’s kick off with you. A 16-year high. A couple of years ago we wouldn’t have thought it was possible. Maybe you would have, but we wouldn’t have.
NICK GOODWIN: Well that’s quite interesting. I think we’ve spoken about this in the past, I think about a year ago I thought it would go to the $440 area and then come off back to $400 and then later on go up. We’re probably going to see about $500 later on, maybe in a year’s time or so. It’s mainly dollar-driven as has been said here. People are talking the dollar down to 1.45 [to the euro] or so. There’s just a problem that, as the dollar moves through 1.30, the Europeans start jumping up and down, because obviously that has a major effect on the whole European economy and I think there could be central bank intervention there eventually, because it really hurts them – just like our rand has been so strong, they don’t really want the euro to be much stronger.
MINEWEB: Why should that have a direct impact on the gold price?
NICK GOODWIN: Well, no, not on the gold price. I think it will affect the euro/dollar rate, and that will affect the gold price because there’s very close correlation now between the gold price and the euro/dollar rate.
MINEWEB: So in other words, as the dollar falls people try and hedge themselves, they try and protect their assets by buying gold?
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, exactly. But unfortunately the buyers of gold now are mainly speculators, and speculators historically are not holders of gold. They’re buyers and sellers of gold. And it’s only your jewellers that really are the holders. Obviously, the stuff is converted into jewellery, and the jewellery market is very sensitive to price, especially in India who take a third of the world’s gold. So if a price rises too fast – it’s actually the rate of increase that’s important – they can withdraw from the market, and then the speculators have got no-one to offload the gold to.
MINEWEB: Have they done that?
NICK GOODWIN: Not yet, but I would expect that they’re starting to do it, because jewellers have got stocks of gold. So they can sit back for a few months before they have to buy again, and they’ve been quite a controlling force in the past. So the jewellers are really the price supporters, and the speculators are the price makers. And what’s concerning about the speculators is they’ve been buying gold net for the last three years, and they’re sitting with about 1,000 tons of gold, which is about half of the world’s annual production.
MINEWEB: But didn’t they sell it net for something like 20 years?
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, they did, true.
MINEWEB: Well couldn’t we be in a 20-year upswing?
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, er – look, in the past, anything could happen. But this is the trouble, gold’s not like oil that gets used up. It lasts forever, that’s the problem with it. In the last 10 years the longest period that they’ve held gold like this is about three years, before they started selling it again. And of course they’re very fickle. But the big thing in this country of course is not only the dollar gold price but the rand gold price, and the rand gold price is at a level at which the mines are really suffering badly. I mean, these results we’re seeing now are the worst I’ve ever seen in its history, and we are way, way far away from a turnaround in the mines. We need a gold price of about $480 for the mines just to break even.
MINEWEB: And what’s that in rand terms?
NICK GOODWIN: It would be about R3,300 per ounce, about R100,000 a kilo.
MINEWEB: And we’re around R80,000 or R85,000 a kilo. We’re under water.
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, the big thing is margins. You need an operating margin of about 30% in order to afford your capex, because your capex is about 20%. The operating margin now is 17%, so even though the gold operating margin is positive, we can’t afford our capex. So then we’ve got to go and borrow money to pay capex.
MINEWEB: So why do people buy a mine like Durban Deep? If the gold industry’s under water, that one has got to be at the bottom of the ocean.
NICK GOODWIN: It’s an interesting question. I think you must ask them.
MINEWEB: Well, we’re going to be talking to Tom in just a little while – and I’m sure he’ll have opinions on Durban Deep. It seems as though the Americans have been stocking up on that highly marginal stock. But what about the other big issue that’s going on in the gold market right now – Harmony’s takeover bid for Gold Fields Limited.
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, look, unfortunately I’m one of the few people in town who don’t favour this merger. There ARE two reasons. First of all, I wouldn’t want to lose Harmony as a stock, as a share. It’s a really nice share to have because it’s marginal. It reminds me of the old Lorraine years ago. I remember one stage when the gold price came down, the price of Lorraine went to 80c, and then the gold price turned around and within six weeks the price had moved up to R24. Now Harmony is that type of stock, and so I wouldn’t like to lose it, it’s a completely different animal from Gold Fields. Gold Fields is less marginal than Harmony, so that’s the first reason. Secondly I don’t think that it’s prudent for Gold Fields shareholders to swap their shares for Harmony. It’s not that Harmony can’t cut costs and things – they can do that, anybody can cut costs. But it’s just the whole management style of Harmony relative to the management of Gold Fields. Over the last five years Gold Fields has outperformed Harmony substantially. If I can mention a few factors which are important here – the big problem at Harmony has been the extent to which they have increased their issued shares. Their issued shares over the last five years have gone from 97m to 320m, so that’s a 232% increase. Gold Fields shares have gone up 8%. Harmony’s gold production has gone up 52% against a rise in share of 230%, and Gold Fields gold production up 8%, about the same as their shares. So Harmony’s production in ounces per share has virtually halved. For instance, in 2000 they produced 5,600 ounces per million shares, and now they’re producing 2,600.
MINEWEB: But aren’t they buying assets for the long term? They’ve got six new mines that they are busy with. You’ve got to issues shares maybe to have this kind of …
NICK GOODWIN: Well, they’ve just closed down about six or seven shafts. The whole ARM operation, for which they paid R2.5bn, is virtually completely closed down.
MINEWEB: So what you’re saying, Nick, is that you’re still with Gold Fields.
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, absolutely.
MINEWEB: Next Friday Nick, that’s the deadline day (Early settlement). Do you think that Gold Fields is going to be able to stave it off?
NICK GOODWIN: Well, it was interesting at the Gold Fields AGM there was a lot of support for the Gold Fields board. Only about 50% of the issued shares were voted there, but there was a lot of support. And interesting for the re-election of the chairman, Chris Thompson, that there was about a 70% vote for that. And obviously Norilsk must have voted there as well. Obviously the Gold Fields shareholders are very quiet. If they do their sums properly, I think the management of Gold Fields, the way they’ve managed the group, the way they’ve gone overseas and expanded substantially has been very successful, whereas Harmony’s overseas adventures have been a bit of a failure, in fact. They’ve got much more cash than Harmony, they’ve got R3.5bn. Harmony’s got R1bn and they’re burning R500m a quarter. So to me Harmony desperately needs Gold Fields’ cash. If they don’t get their cash, if they don’t get this group within two quarters, they are going to have to go and issue more shares and drain more cash.
MINEWEB: And if they don’t do the deal, is it life-threatening to Harmony?
NICK GOODWIN: It could be, yes. The group will change, it will still be around, but it could be a smaller group.