Eine Analyse von smartinvestment.ca
Research Report on Tumi Resources
Many junior resource exploration companies in Mexico have followed a similar path in the last couple years. They are taking advantage of the result of the long-term severe bear market in precious metals since the early 1980s. Mexico is a country rich in deposits of gold and silver, with a history of mining activity going back over 500 years. Until recently, the mining laws in Mexico prevented foreign mining companies from owning a majority stake in resource projects within that country. When the commodity prices for gold and silver sharply declined, many Mexican companies could no longer operate profitably and were shut down. Many of the producing properties were owned by undercapitalized local entrepreneurs, operating inefficiently. Exploration activity almost came to a halt. Those companies that remained active worked only the highest-grade zones of their deposits.
With the return of the bull market in precious metals prospective junior companies were once again able to go to the markets for financing, and there are now many junior companies with capital resources looking for projects. So we have come full circle and there are a great many of the high quality properties in Mexico that are available for attractive prices. New junior explorers have been able to snap up properties, in most cases with limited past production, and very little modern exploration work completed. The best places to find new gold and silver deposits are adjacent to known past producing properties. The challenge for these new junior companies is to employ modern exploration techniques such as geochemical, geophysical, and induced polarization surveying to map out the vein extensions that may host additional high grade resources, test the limits and grades of these deposits through reverse circulation and diamond drilling programs, and then to bring these deposits into production as quickly as possible to take advantage of the window of higher precious metals pricing while the new bull market remains in effect.
As of the completion of this report, I do not own shares of Tumi Resources.
Overview
Tumi Resources is a junior exploration company focused on the discovery and development of silver deposits. Originally incorporated as Planex Ventures Ltd. in January 2000, the company changed its name to Tumi Resources with the acquisition of interests in mineral concessions in Peru. Subsequently Tumi was able to secure the rights to Mexican properties, and the in February 2003 the Peruvian interests were farmed out to a sister company, Tinka Resources (Tumi retains a 30% interest in the property), while Tumi focused 100% on the Mexican area of operations.
Listings: Vancouver TSX-V- (V.TM)
Frankfurt - (TUY)
OTC – (TUMIF)
Website: http://www.tumiresources.com
Head Office: Vancouver, British Columbia
Telephone: (604) 685-9316
Share Price (7/5/04): $1.10 (Canadian)
Share Structure: Issued: 15,600,000
Fully Diluted: 23,900,000
Market Capitalization: $17.1 Million
With a background of over 30 years of experience in mineral exploration through various stages of development, Mr. David Henstridge (President, CEO, and Director) has led the management team in the acquisition of the property base, and ongoing exploration activity. Director Nick DeMare brings a background of venture financing experience to assist Tumi with securing capital through equity offerings. The management team was recently strengthened with the addition of Mr. Gil Leathley, appointed to the Company’s advisory board on April 5, 2004. Mr. Leathley has directed the start up and development of 6 new mines in North America, and will be of assistance as Tumi works to bring their properties into production.
As of December 2003 the company had $3.2 million in the treasury, and no long-term debt. As outstanding warrants and options are exercised additional capital will become available to fund ongoing exploration activity.
Properties
Tumi Resources has currently focused their efforts on two property districts in Mexico. An option to earn a 100% interest in the Cinco Minas property was announced in July 2002. This property hosted the El Abra mining operation, which produced an estimated 97,000 ounces of gold and 15 million ounces of silver at the early part of the last century, coming to a halt with the Mexican revolution in 1920 and never returning to operational status. Tumi controls an area of 1,428 acres surrounding the past producing mine site, and encompassing an epithermal silver-gold vein system that has been traced over a 4.8 kilometer length on the property. A thorough channel sampling program tested the ore quality within the rehabilitated historic mine workings at El Abra, and confirmed high-grade gold and silver values. This was used as the basis for follow-up drilling programs, which returned assay results ranging to 21.8m of 248 g/t silver and 1.6 g/t gold, and 18.1 m 845 g/t silver and 3.2 g/t gold. These bonanza quality ore grades validate the company’s approach to apply modern exploration methods to find new zones of mineralization on past producing mine projects. Metallurgical testing of sample material has confirmed that high recovery rates can be achieved through conventional milling and refining methods. Subsequent to this exploration work the company staked an additional extension to the property covering 3225 acres bringing the total area controlled by Tumi to 4653 acres. A further large parcel of almost 27,000 acres to the northwest was also acquired, the Jamaica and San Jorge properties, for their proximity to other promising mineral showings. A scooping study is currently underway to investigate the economics of various development strategies for the Cinco Minas property, to be followed by a full feasibility study.
The Gran Cabrera property is also the site of historical mining activity, with at least 15 separate projects identified across 3 significant silver-gold epithermal systems occurring within the 9760-acre property. Rights to an additional 722 acres were acquired through staking and purchase agreements in March 2004. Sampling work completed in mine workings on the property have identified ore grades up to .55 g/t gold and 398 g/t silver, while mining records for one of the past producing mines revealed approximately 100,000 tons were excavated with average grades of 1.5 g/t gold and 500 g/t silver. The property is scheduled for ongoing mapping and sampling work in search of new zones of mineralization.
Outlook
So far 2004 has been a difficult year for precious metals investors. What was originally regarded as a “healthy correction” at the start of the year, the decline in values for precious metals companies, especially the junior explorers, has now gone on for altogether too long for many investors in the sector. There are nervous prognostications that the bull run has come to an end. Much of this sentiment is as a result of weak technicals for both the stocks and the metals, and much can be attributed to the common assumption that precious metals bull markets typically run for a duration of 3 years, and hence the current incarnation is viewed by many to be mature. The opposing scenario to all of this is summarized by the oft-used analogy of the Chinese characters for “risk” and “opportunity” combined to create the expression “crisis”. While there does appear to be a higher level of risk associated with precious metals junior in the spring of 2004 than in the fall of 2003, this is very much offset by the reduced valuations these companies can now be acquired for. The fundamentals that were the driving forces behind the resumption of upward pricing for precious metals in 2002 remain in effect in 2004, and hence it may be premature to write-off the bull market. If one believes the precious metals sector will eventually respond to these exceptionally bullish fundamentals, then the correct approach is to be aggressively buying the high quality juniors that are currently available for substantial discounts on the markets.
Tumi completed a private placement financing in December of 2003, and those shares became free trading in April 2004. As some of this cheap paper was hitting the market, the price of gold and silver were both sharply correcting, driving many investors to the sidelines and creating a sharp drop in the share price on low volume. It cannot be accurately speculated on how long this corrective atmosphere may prevail, and Tumi will continue to trade in sympathy with the rest of the sector. Thus it is very possible that the current range of trading in the shares may be depressed further before upside momentum is re-established. It is worth noting is that once the overhang of cheaply issued paper is absorbed there are no further significant options or warrants set to expire for the remainder of 2004 with the exception of a small allotment of about 500,000 shares at the end of May. Also the company is very well financed as a result of the successful financing and can proceed with ongoing exploration and development activity without concern for immediate funding considerations.
On the basis of current data the Cinco Minas property is estimated to contain 177,000 ounces of gold and over 17 million ounces of silver resource, or about 439,000 ounces gold equivalent resource calculated on a 65-1 differential. The market has valued late stage junior explorers on a multiple of $50-60 US per contained resource ounce of gold. This would imply market cap of about $22-26 million US. With a current value in the neighborhood of $13 million US, the market cap for Tumi Resources can be seen as significantly undervalued at current prices and when one takes into account the cash in the treasury, and the probability that additional high grade deposits will be discovered as they continue exploration, the share price could very well double or triple from current levels before the end of 2004.
While Tumi remains exposed to the typical risks of other junior explorers regarding the uncertainty that any project will be carried to full production status, perhaps the greatest risk at this point is in concern over the commodity pricing strength of precious metals going forward. No matter how successful any exploration or development project may be at this juncture, it appears that investors are reluctant to assume more risk in the sector until the precious metals markets have confirmed that the prices are headed higher. While the fundamentals remain overwhelmingly bullish in favor that gold and silver will indeed be driven much higher in the months and years ahead, it should be very clearly understood that there are no guarantees. If precious metals markets continue headed lower, or at worst remain flat from the current levels, there is a very legitimate risk that all the junior explorers will continue to correct to lower levels, and perhaps will stay depressed for several years. Investors must be prepared to face the downside risk that while the company appears to be value priced and well positioned for success in the future, it is very possible that disappointments in the entire sector will prevent upside appreciation in the share price for an extended period.
Considering the likelihood that Tumi will be able to bring at least one of their projects into production within a two year time frame, and with the cash resources in the treasury to limit the impact of unfavorable market conditions, very much of the risk exposure from the junior exploration sector is nullified by owning this company, yet investors retain full leverage to the upside potential that would result from successful development. Hence Tumi Resources represents an excellent opportunity for risk tolerant investors that are prepared to hold through an extended downturn if this should occur. If the precious metals sector does emerge quickly from the corrective conditions during the first part of 2004, then the low valuation for the company could be expected to increase 2-300% within a relatively short time frame.