Beiträge von Tambok

Saccard bleibt seiner Linie treu.

Lese Deine Postings schon seit Jahren.

Hatte nicht auf die Warnungen vor Thistle gehört,

die sich nachher als absolut begründet herausstellten.

Entscheide eben letztlich emotional. Das brachte

im Falle von Thistle Totalverlust und in anderen Fällen Vervielfacher.

An Avocet stört mich der Einfluss der Tadjikistan-"Regierung".

Alles andere kann ich nachvolziehen.


Das Tandem DRD/EMP schätze ich zumindest für EMP anders ein.

EMP war defacto Pleite bevor THT seine Neu-Guinea Minen einlegte.

EMP wird die gesunden N.G.Minen auch noch verfrühstücken.

Meine Engagements zur Zeit sind in eher kleinen Austral-GM und in

Western-Areas, JCI . Die GFI und HAR habe ich letztens verkauft.


Gruss

ehemals Tsuba

Quelle MIMINGMX.com vom 30.11.05

JCI to redeem R405m debenture
=========================
===

The listed JCI debentures, currently suspended, JSE code JCDD will

receive the December interest payment of 6.6c per debenture and the

debenture will be redeemed at the option of the holder on January 15

2006 at 125c each.

Apparently JCI has sufficient cash or access to resources to meet this

total commitment of R405m.

At the end of July this year the debenture were still trading at 88c each on

the JSE. The flat return for the six months to January 2006 - for the brave

at heart who were prepared to venture some money on this controversial

debenture - will be 50%, or 100% on an annual basis.

This was one of the nicest investment opportunities, simply because

one could calculate the potential return well in advance. The annual

interest rate at prime, payable every six months, and the redemption at

125c on January 15 2006 was always known and part of the conditions

of the debenture.

The risk, of course, was always whether the oft cash strapped JCI would

ever be able to meet the repayment condition in January.

Over the four year lifespan of the debentures the company - largely seen

as an executive toy of the father/son combination of Roger (chairperson)

and the late Brett Kebble (CEO) - never missed a payment.

Frankly JCI was the Kebble's entity. The risk attached to an investment in

JSE was not the massive gold reserves of South Deep. It was the

Kebbles, who in the past always met their commitments.

But a strange twist of events changed the outcome.

It started with the suspension of the listing of the shares and debentures

of JCI on the JSE on July 29 2005 for not submitting financial statement

on time. At that time, the ordinary shares were trading an all time low of

15c but the debentures were still at a respectable price of 89c.

Late submission of financial statement is not a serious crime but the

very low price of 15c for the ordinary shares were screaming "cash flow problems".

On August 30 an announcement by Investec bank confirmed the cash

flow problems and announced a R460m cash injection into the company

on condition that Brett relinquished the job as CEO (although he stayed

on as a non-executive director).

Shareholders were starting to breath a little more comfortably - but there

was still no clarity on the option of cash redemption of the debentures in

January. It is well know that bankers seldom save a company to the

benefit of existing minority debenture and shareholders.

One month later on September 30 Brett Kebble was murdered, and no

arrest has yet been made. Investec put out a statement indicating that

the negotiations around the re-capitalisation of JCI are continuing.

During all these dramatic events the shares and debenture remained

suspended. A very small and erratic over-the-counter market (OTC) was

apparently conducted over the past few months but I was unable to trace this market.

So it it appears if the improbable - if not impossible - is to become reality.

Debenture holders will be offered the opportunity to request cash

redemption or conversion into ordinary shares if they so chose.

I have on a number of occasions recommended these debentures to

investors with a high-risk profile. The potential return always varied

between 30% and 50% and often translated in an annualised return of

100%. This was first truly junk bond listed on the JSE and it was fun to

follow its near failures - but eventual success.

To me it was always a better instrument than having to lend money to

your in-laws, and the possible return on the debentures gives a good

indication of the applicable interest rate for family loans.

Trader Vic unfortunately sold his JCI debentures long ago

Eldo,

bei so einem Vorfall fehlen mir die Worte.

Hoffentlich stellt sich manches als nicht ganz so schlimm raus,

wie es jetzt scheint.


Gruss

Tambok

Goldy,

Komet verweist auf einen anderen Thread.
Sowas Verklausuliertes nennt man kryptisch.

Und das Abschneiden des Kometenschweifs
ist nicht ironisch gemeint, sondern lobend.


Gruss

Tambok

Quelle REUTERS vom 28.11.05

Western Areas surges on better outlook, sale talk
=======================================

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Shares in South African gold miner Western Areas Ltd soared nearly 10 percent on Monday, extending a rally on optimism that new management was solving financial problems and speculation it might be sold.

The shares jumped 9.6 percent to a peak of 37.25 rand, the highest since February 2004, adding 385 million rand to its market capitalisation.

The shares, which have surged 63 percent since November 16, were trading 8.2 percent higher at 36.79 rand by 0920 GMT, outperforming a flat local gold mining index.

"I think it's just people waking up to the fact that this company will be saved. Until a month or two ago, there was no potential for that to materialise," said analyst Leon Esterhuizen at Investec Securities.

"Part of what you're seeing is very definite indication that a lot of people believe that it will be sold."

The firm's main asset is its 50-50 joint venture with Canada's Placer Dome in South Africa's South Deep gold mine. South Deep is one of the world's deepest and richest ore bodies, but it has been troubled by long delays and high costs.

Western Areas had financial difficulties under the leadership of controversial mining magnate Brett Kebble, who resigned shortly before he was gunned down in his car in a gangland-style shooting in late September.

New management are going ahead with a 640 million rand rights issue to recapitalise the firm, which swung back to a profit in the quarter to September.

CONFIDENCE IN NEW CHAIR

Investors also got a jolt of confidence earlier this month when Gill Marcus, former deputy finance minister and former deputy central bank governor, agreed to become chairperson of the company.

A lot of talk has swirled in the market about potential takeover activity for Western Areas following a $9.2 billion hostile bid by Barrick Gold Corp. for Placer Dome.

Placer's stake in South Deep might be combined with that of Western Areas to make it an attractive target, analysts say.

South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd said last month it had held sporadic talks on working together with South Deep, located next to Gold Fields' Kloof mine, but said nothing concrete had emerged.

Still hanging over Western Areas, however, is a series of hedging deals done several years ago. It sold large amounts of gold in advance at fixed prices when the gold price was much lower.

Analyst David Davis at Andisa Securities said in a research note last week that the market has sharply discounted the value of Western Areas huge reserves in South Deep due to the financial and management difficulties. But the company could be re-rated over the next 12-24 months as the problems are solved.

"We believe Western Areas reserves should re-rate to around $57 per reserve ounce from $29 per reserve ounce. If it does, the Western Areas share could rise to 56 rand per share," he said in the note.

But in another research note last week by RBC Capital Markets, analyst Georges Lequime pegged a target price of 28 rand, up from 23.50, based on the net asset value of the firm.

Da kann man ins Grübel kommen.

Heute morgen an der JSE mit 3.650 gestartet, das sind plus 8%.

Die Jungen werden für 1.800 ausgegeben.

Bleibt´s wie ´s ist sind das 100% Zeichnungsgewinn.


Die Story heißt: 2 x 25 Mio Unzen in produzierender Mine.

Da ist alles drin, und das genaue Gegenteil auch.

Eldo,

den NacktStar wollte Sedimentary SED.ASX schon

vor der Gesellenprüfung einsetzen.

Dabei muß man es langsam angehen mit den jungen Stuten.

del

DOMINA verteibt im 85-iger Takt die Zeit

bis der BATAVIA-Tabak glühen wird.

Ekstase auf den Ruderbänken!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://digilander.libero.it/dominanoctis/DNhalloween1.JPG]

Goldy stellt sich dümmer als er ist.

Er hat z. B. aus eigenem Antrieb beim Komet den Schweif abgeschnitten.




Tambok

Inerhalb des Herbstes der Offenen Hausse beginnt morgen

die Woche des Starken Tobaccs.

Nicole Kidman hat sich schon eine angezündet.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://snoopy7905.free.fr/Nicole%20Kidman%202346.JPG]

del

GO,

was die SIEGEL-Analyse von EMP angeht, verstehe ich das so.

Er kann oder will sich nicht festlegen. Das kaschiert er, indem

er Fakten entsprechend selektiert.

Die AU-Gehalte in den EMP-Minen sind gut. Darin gebe ich Dir recht.

Soviel ich aber davon verstehe, ist die Erzaufbereitung schwierig.

Objetktiv geringfügiger ist mein Vorbehalt, daß die Fijis einen ähnlichen

Status wie Hawaii für die USA haben. Da braucht keiner zu arbeiten,

jeder bekommt eine Greencard usw.


Da investiere ich lieber in "Stories", die mir mehr einleuchten.

Gruss

Tsuba

die Schwester guckt gerade nicht. Nicht nach einem Sinn suchen!
===================================================

"EMTV,CARGOLIFTER,CARD€RO ahoi"

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gseart.com/artworks/barlach/BarlachSchult129PoorCousin.jpg]

Lithografie von Ernst Barlach, 20-iger Jahre

Habe nur ein nichtsigniertes Exemplar, bilde mir aber ein,
daß meins ein besserer Druck ist (erstanden beim Hamburger Auktionshaus Hauswedel oder so ähnlich)

die schwebende Figur hat Barlach später lebensgross in Bronze gegossen und in Güstrow als Kriegerdenkmal für die Gefallenen des WK I flach aufgehängt.

Das war ihm in den 30-igern nicht gut bekommen.

langer Text, aber für WAR alles interessant

Aus Mineweb.com vom 25.11.05

Big call on Western Areas from Joburg’s top gold analyst
=============================================

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- A re-rating of gold company, Western Areas could see its price almost double from current levels, according to David Davis of Andisa Securities. He is Johannesburg’s top rated gold analyst according to a Financial Mail survey.

“The market currently applies a significant discount to Western Areas reserves,” said Davis in a note to clients, “We believe the market will likely re-rate Western Areas’s reserves over the next 12 to 24 months, as the negative factors that have contributed to this discount are eliminated.”

Western Areas is half-owner of one of the world’s largest remaining gold deposits, called South Deep. The other half is owned by Canadian listed, Placer Dome.

In his calculations, Davis used an unorthodox valuation method, which values a gold miner per reserve ounce in the ground, to show just how far apart Western Areas and Randgold Resources, an African gold miner, are from the rest of the pack when using this method. Usually the discounted cash flow (DCF) method would be used.

According to this method of valuation, and including the new shares from an imminent rights issue, the gold reserves at Western Areas are given a value of $29.7/oz, according to Davis.

In comparison South Africa’s other gold producers including, AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Harmony, have a combined average market capitalisation per reserve ounce value of $106.2/oz. While the largest North American stocks attract a value of $172/oz.

“The market is clearly significantly discounting the Western Areas South Deep JV’s reserve base,” says the note.

Davis adds that this discount is probably due to a number of negative factors, like continued delays in the commissioning of the main shaft at South Deep, management and board structures, repeated rights offers, a nasty hedge book, relatively high costs and low yields.

And while these factors may make for a company that should be avoided, Davis says much has changed over the past year.

Operationally the mine should start to reach its targeted cost levels of R65,000/kg to R70,000/kg, after coming off highs of around R110,000/kg. With grades expected to improve as well.

Board structures have changed at South Deep itself as well as at the holding company level, with Gill Marcus recently being appointed as executive chairperson, after the previous chairman, Mafika Mkwanazi left and the previous chief executive, Brett Kebble, was mysteriously murdered in September.

The current rights offer on the table intends to raise R640 million by issuing 35.5 million new shares at R18 a share.

“The capital raising will likely be used for an uprate of the project from 700,000oz per annum to over 900,000oz per annum by 2010,” says the note.

Also a R369 million loan will be repaid to 39% shareholder JCI, following the rights offer, leaving R271 million in capital, according to Davis.

Davis calculates that Western Areas’s total share of capital expenditure over the next five to six years will be about R825 million.

And although R271 million only makes up a quarter of that, the company is also looking at restructuring its hedge book to match the new mine plan.

“Should the restructuring of the hedge book not be fully successful, Western Areas will likely go for a further rights offer,” says the note.

If the market does re-rate Western Areas, Davis says the market would likely set a premium equivalent to Harmony, also a predominant producer of South African gold, at around $78 per reserve ounce. but adjusted for the hedge and JCI debt. Davis says these factors account for about $20 per reserve ounce.

“Under these circumstances, we calculate a likely market re-rating of Western Areas reserves to be in the order of $57/reserve ounce,” says the note, “Based on an exchange rate of R6.65/$, the Western Areas share price is likely to have an order of magnitude of around R56/share, which corresponds to a 100% re-rating.”

Simon Marais, from Allan Gray, a 25% shareholder in Western Areas, told Mineweb Radio on Wednesday evening, that he also thought there was more value in Western Areas.

“The problem with Western Areas always is you had fantastic assets, but probably management that didn’t bring the assets to their full potential, to put it mildly,” said Marais, “Hopefully this will change now – the assets are still there, you know, it’s gold under the ground, so there’s not much harm you can do to that – and the value will now be unlocked.”

He added that the market will probably take a wait and see attitude for now. “
But I think if they can do that (show results) in the next three to five years I think from here the stock could be good,” added Marais.

He also said that the 50/50 JV could fall away at some point, maybe being bought out by Barrick if it is successful in its Placer Dome bid.

“I would expect that at some point they would probably buy it out. Now, whether they’d be willing to pay an appropriate price that they’ll get it, I don’t know. But I would think it will happen in due course. It's probably cheaper to buy that than to try and find a similar deposit elsewhere in the world,” said Marais.

George Lequime, of RBC in London, shared a similar sentiment towards the stock. “Small changes in longer-term production projections, or on the gold price or the rand, tend to move that NPV (net present value) all over the place,” said Lequime, “And if you actually sit down and you look at it on a enterprise value or a market capitalisation per-ounce basis, it's cheap ounces and we’ve got a gold price moving in the right direction.”

Lequime says that if mining goes according to plan, Western Areas should be on track for full capacity by the middle of next year. “When you’ve got 60% of your costs in fixed costs and infrastructure, if you can get the volumes up, then it changes the cash cost quite dramatically and negates a lot of the hedges that they have in place and they’re giving away on certain amount of the ounces over the next nine years. So that’s going to be the key for the company.”

Western Areas shares closed at R32 each on Thursday in Johannesburg

Kuwait liegt next door zum Irak

Und da herrscht zur Zeit eine Bombenstimmung


=====================================================

KuwaitTimes.net vom 25.11.05

Gold demand jumps 9.2% in Kuwait
============================

KUWAIT: The Regional Office of the World Gold Council (WGC) in Dubai

has released its latest report on gold demand in the Gulf and worldwide.

For the third consecutive quarter this year, gold demand in Kuwait has

increased: it was about 9.2% higher in tonnage terms -amounting to 6.4

tonnes- and more than 16% in dollar terms -amounting to $104 million-

in quarter three 2005 compared to same quarter of 2004.

These figures clearly justify the importance of this sector in Kuwait and

the positive impact of World Gold Council's promotional activities in

Kuwait -the latest of which was "Ramadan Gold Shopping Festival 2005"

in Kuwait. The Festival was organised by the Council with the support of

governmental and private entities -mainly the Ministry of Commerce &

Industry. Around 200 gold and jewellery shops all over the cities of

Kuwait participated in the gold festival in Ramadan which lasted for 20

days with more than 10kg of pure gold as prizes as well as tens of

other 'golden' prizes from Kuwait Hotel Owners Association and

several 'golden' Ramadani activities in cooperation with the Tourism

Sector of the Ministry of Information in Kuwait.

Gold demand growth continued despite a 10% rise in gold price in

Quarter 3, 2005. The increase of oil prices, foreign investments and

tourism have direct relation to strong economies in Kuwait and other

GCC countries that allowed for more demand of gold jewellery as

luxurious products as well as a saving tool.

Moreover, the World Gold Council promotional activities have continued

in the Gulf region to maintain the momentum that prevailed in 2005. In

Kuwait in 2005, the Council held two gold shopping festivals (the first in

May/June and the second in October corresponding to the month of

Ramadan). The two festivals were highly supported by governmental

entities -mainly the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the Tourism Sector

of the Ministry of Information, Kuwait TV, Municipality of Kuwait, Kuwaiti

Consumer Cooperative Union, Kuwait Hotel Owners Association and

others, plus the participation of hundreds of gold and jewellery outlets

and the main gold shopping malls and centres in Kuwait.

In the Middle East, gold demand continued to boom with Quarter3

maintaining the pace of expansion seen in the first half of 2005. Overall

jewellery demand grew 11% while retail investment rose 38%, both in

tonnage terms.

Vibrant economies on the back of high oil prices, construction activity and

ever increasing tourist numbers in the Gulf countries, combined with

sustained and increased promotion by the gold trade and the World Gold

Council, provided strong support to gold buying in Gulf countries. As for

Turkey, gold demand in tonnage terms continued to increase, with

jewellery offtake up 5% and net retail investment demand up 12%,

compared to year-earlier levels.

Commenting on the region's demand results, Moaz Barakat, World Gold

Council's Managing Director for the Middle East, Turkey and Pakistan

said: "Many factors have led to the improved performance in the third

quarter of 2005 - for example, the continuous increase in promotional

activities along with the boom in the tourism sectors in several Gulf

countries - as most of the tourists visit the gold souks. The high volatility

of gold prices in the last two years has not weakened consumer spirit in

the region's gold markets. Whatever the direction of prices, gold is still

viewed by consumers as a luxurious product and the best route for

savings -this has been proved over the years."

Barakat also added: "Also, the rise in gold prices, together with global

political and economic concerns encouraged retail investment purchase

in some countries including the Middle East as gold provides a security

against inflation and it is an excellent risk diversifier asset. All of these

make us maintain our promotional efforts in the region, whether

promotional and advertising campaigns, supporting unique activities or

holding gold festivals -such as Ramadan Gold Shopping Festival 2005

in Kuwait which aimed at promoting Kuwaiti gold and jewellery traders

and manufacturers in the important season for gifting -ie Ramadan

season".

Worldwide, total gold demand in Quarter 3 was up 7% in tonnes and

18% in dollar terms. Quarter 3, 2005 is the seventh consecutive quarter

of positive growth in total tonnage demand, and tenth consecutive

quarter of double-digit growth in total value. Year-on-year growth for gold

jewellery in the first three quarters of 2005 was up 12% in tonnage terms

and 20% in dollar terms. However, the rise in gold investment demand

in third quarter of 2005 was the highest -it reached 56% increase.

@GO,

dran gedacht, die WAR jetzt zu verkaufen hatte ich auch.

Schien mir dann aber doch zu früh.

Außerdem gefällt mir die Tiefmine und wie man dort

mit einem viel Größeren, Placer Dome, Schlitten fährt.

Jedem seine Liebhaberei


SIEGEL bespricht heute EMP auf SIEGEL-INVESTMENT = Goldhotline.

Sein Ergebnis mit meinen Worten: nicht heiß, nicht kalt, schön lauwarm

Gruss

Tambok

Solange die RSA Zeitungen (hier Business Day) solchen Unsinn schreiben wie im Artikel voriges Posting, kann es mit WAR
nur aufwärts gehen.

tut es auch; schaut man auf Kurs JSE 9.00 Uhr MEZ.

Eldo,

Domina:
Peitschen werden neu eingefettet.
Habe bis jetzt noch kein Stück verkauft.

BTV
Wenn das mit dem Putten an Loch 16 nichts wird,
können wir immer noch zum EMPEROR auf die Fijis.
Das ist herrlich.



Gruss

Tambok.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,544536,00.jpg]

Ulfur,

die Jilbey ist das beste an den HRG-Akrivitäten in Burkina Faso (hieß früher Obervolta). Jilbey hat bewiesen, daß sie sich in Mandingo-Land auskennt. Aber ohne Kapital konnten die allein wenig ausrichten.

Gruss

Tambok