Aus MINING.MX vom 07.11.05
PDG hat Hälfte an South Deep, andere Hälfte WAR
Deshalb wird möglicher Barrick-merger Wirkung zeitigen:
S. Africans to vie for South Deep
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[miningmx.com] --A R61bn (US$9,2bn) takeover proposal by Canadian firm Barrick Gold for compatriot Placer Dome has kicked the consolidation of the world’s gold mining industry into motion again – with consequences for the South Africans.
One view is that Gold Fields – only just recovering from Harmony Gold’s unsolicited attentions – and even AngloGold Ashanti will become the next targets as the more powerful North American firms seek to outgrow each other.
“It’s no coincidence that Anglo American has expressed its interest in seeing its 51% stake in AngloGold Ashanti diluted,” said John Clemmow, an analyst at Investec Securities in London. “We can expect a bid for AngloGold Ashanti from Newmont.”
In the world of mining it’s important to be the biggest in market capitalisation and in annual gold output because mining stocks remain relatively small beer against oil, banking, retail and TMT stocks. Commanding the attention of mining-focused and general funds normally means being the biggest gorilla.
The Barrick/Placer Dome combination sees the world’s second and sixth largest gold producers combining to rank above Newmont Mining, which outbid AngloGold Ashanti in 2000 for control of Franco-Nevada and Normandy Mining. Harmony’s failed bid for Gold Fields would have put that entity on top in terms of output if it had been successful.
The only way…is to gobble each other up
Harmony CEO Bernard Swanepoel, who knows a thing or two about consolidation, commented that it will only accelerate. “Gold producers are depleting reserves faster than we’re discovering them. The rising cost structure driven by increased capital costs and diesel prices means that there’s a downward restatement of reserves worldwide.
“The only way for companies to stand still or to show signs of growth is to gobble each other up and to merge. I think that’s probably one of the few such steps that we’ll see in the next year to 18 months.” Swanepoel was speaking on Classic Business.
There’s even talk that Gold Fields will become back into the frame – as the target of AngloGold Ashanti, a merger that was heavily speculated about in 1999 but never materialised. Certainly, it’s thought that AngloGold Ashanti will be unlikely to compete with Barrick’s offer for Placer Dome.
“About 13% of Barrick’s offer is in cash ($1,2bn) and the rest is in equity. That would be difficult for AngloGold Ashanti to beat,” said another South African analyst who preferred not to be named. Having said that it’s likely Gold Fields will become an interesting chip for any number of other firms.
“If you look at all the pieces in the jigsaw, Gold Fields is one of the few companies still out there,” said Leon Esterhuizen, a gold analyst at Investec Securities in Johannesburg. “If I were Norilsk Nickel, I’d be buying Harmony’s 5% stake in Gold Fields to build my overall stake to 25% (Norilsk already owns 20%).”
The permutations are endless. However, one interesting certainty is that a successful bid for Placer Dome by Barrick would be positive for another South African gold share – Western Areas.
It owns 50% of South Deep, a mine on Johannesburg’s West Rand, but following a one-year delay in commissioning found itself short of capital funding and requiring R640m to pay back loans and complete its share of the capital. Placer Dome was giving thought to sue Western Areas for the shortfall until it was repaid in September.
“Given the history between Western Areas and Placer Dome there’s been some stagnation. But a new partner would give some forward momentum,” said David Davis, a gold analyst at Andisa Securities.
Undecided, however, is what Barrick would do with its stake in South Deep.
Though Barrick has been a frequent visitor to South Africa to assess various options, Clemmow said that Barrick is wary of the safety hazards connected to mining in South Africa. “Nobody likes to say it, but it’s true: why would anyone want to buy the death rate of an South African mine?”
For its part, Barrick has expressed an interest in retaining South Deep, partly because it accounts for about 13% of the combined entity’s total gold reserves of 150m oz. But if the company wants to part with its South African asset, it may turn into a bidding war between Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti.
Given that either company would also seek to control the entire asset
that could be positive news for Western Areas’ shareholders,
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who haven’t had much to cheer about lately.