Edel, ich wusste ich kann mich auf dich verlassen.. 
Gute Flotte, also weiter am Ball bleiben...
Beiträge von Eldorado
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Und schon springt GORO.OB....
Habt ihr wieder verpennt....
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Mich interessieren mehr die PM Aktien die gestern sogar gestiegen sind wo Gold gefallen ist.
Auf die Geruechtekueche vom Goldkartel gebe ich nichts, denn ""seeing is believing" !
Jedenfalls hat man erstmal den Anstieg ueber die 950 $ > gestoppt mit der Meldung was ertsmal der Sinn un Zweck der News war. Ich finde es laecherlich wie diese Idioten selber die Preise kaputt hauen wenn sie verkaufen wollen mit ihren grossen Ankuendigungen und Auktionen anstatt es heimlich und langsam verkaufen und spaeter den Verkauf bekannt geben.
Sobald der IMF Gold Verkauf durch ist gehts dann in die Richtung die Sinclair vorhersagt.
Wie schon erwaehnt die Amis verkaufen nichts aus Fort Knox, das sollen mal die anderen machen wie die EZB oder SNB diese Vollidioten.
Bin gespannt wann eine Meldung der BUBA kommt, die fehlt noch im Kampf gegen Gold.
Fuer was braucht Deutschland schon Gold wenn man damit das Loch im Haushalt kurzfristig stopfen kann ?Axel Weber denkt sicher schon nach ......
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Funny, Rabbi...ich war auch gerade auf deren Webseite und wollte ebenso den Abschnitt highlighten:
These transactions in gold require an 85 percent majority of total voting power. The IMF does not have the authority to engage in any other gold transactions—such as loans, leases, swaps, or use of gold as collateral—nor does it have the authority to buy gold.
Also 85% Stimmen brauchen die erstmal, den Segen bekommen sie sicher von der Bush Regierung die Hilfe braucht bis zur Wahl.
Saubande, aber sie schneiden sich selber ins Fleisch, falls der Verkauf im April ueber die Buehne geht hole ich mir auch einen Barren von der IMF.
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Die Oma sagt zu den angekuendigten Goldverkauf.....
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Die Bushregierung versucht nun mit aller kraft und mitteln bis zum wahltag einigermassen gut dazustehen.
Die schieben nur die Stuehle umher auf der Titanic.
Die naechste Regierung kriegt einen Schuldenberg der sie umhauen wird von den republikanern mitgeliefert.
2009 wird das Jahre der Hyperinflation die eigentlich schon im Oktober beginnt.
Irgendeiner wird seine Fiat Dollars schon waschen mit Gold und Silber, keine Sorge !
Ich bin auf alle Faelle dabei Papier gegen Gold zu tauschen, erst recht nach so einer meldung die sich eher nach verzweiflung anhoert.
Die 1650 $ von Sinclair kommen wahrscheinlich in 2009, also was solls ? -
Mich regt das gar nicht mehr auf da es sofort abnehmer findet und danach schnell auf 1200 $ springt.
Lass doch kurzzeitig auf 900> $ fallen mai-august, dann lege ich physisch wieder nach.
Immer weg damit Vollidioten von EZB und IMF Banker, irgendwann feuert das ganze zurueck.
Ich wuerde Sch....schreien wenn eines tages die BUBA Gold kaufen muss nachdem man Euch eine Sondersteuer aufbratet.
Also hebt Euch ein wenig Cash auf fuer den Sommerschlussverkauf.
Der Hammer waere wenn nun nach der Meldung der POG ueber 954 steigt diese Woche.
Das wuerde bedeuten....Kiss my A... IMF -
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Das war ja alles umsonst....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KufHGYKqH9E
Noch heute suchen viele nach ihren Eiern, die meisten haben keine mehr.
Die waehlen dann die Weicheier in den Bundestag und so kommt man dann zu U-Booten fuer Israel.
Wenn Dummheit weh tut dann schreit fast ganz Deutschland bei der Auswahl ihrer Politiker.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmjYfY0wWg0
..25. Februar 2008, 15:04 Uhr
Muntere Farbenspiele in Deutschland: Die SPD flirtet mit der Linken, die CDU erwägt neue Wege mit den Grünen. Die Parteienlandschaft in Deutschland wird derzeit kräftig durchgeschüttelt.:D
Dabei droht vor allem eine Partei auf der Strecke zu bleiben. -
Robbers shot at people 'without warning'
2008-2-25 10:01
Malelane - At least five people, including three robbers, were wounded in two unrelated shooting incidents in the Lowveld at the weekend.
A social outing with friends turned into a nightmare for the Muller family of the farm Bahudi about 2km outside the town when they were attacked by four armed robbers.
Org Muller, 76, was still in the intensive care unit of Nelspruit Medi-Clinic on Monday after he had opened fire on the robbers and was subsequently shot in the stomach.
"My family is so badly traumatised after the attack that we spent Sunday night in a hotel in Nelspruit," said George Muller, 40, Org's son.
George said he and his father were braaiing at about 21:00 while his family and friends were watching a rugby match on television.
"The next moment four attackers appeared out of the dark and started shooting at us without warning."
Org told his family to hide inside the house while he shot at the robbers.
"One of them turned around and shot at dad, wounding him in the stomach."
Henko Celliers, one of the guests, was wounded in the arm during the shoot-out.
The robbers fled. About 45 minutes later the police found two suspects along the N4.
Both were wounded.
The police determined they were from Mozambique.
In an unrelated incident a robber was shot at least nine times at Uitsig Estate outside Nelspruit. He is in critical condition in Themba Hospital.Beeld
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ZUMA‚S PYRRHIC VICTORY
ANC‚S MOMENT OF TRUTH
YOUNG WHITES CAN RELAX
Plus updates:
· Gold heads for $1200
· Rand to strengthen
· Sub Prime Tsunami
· Dollar and Dow fight back
· Iran the CIA
· Shell Big ŒE‚
· ŒPick Six‚- latest
Investment Indicators from Peter George
February 2008
„One more such victory and I am undone.‰
Congratulations were unwarranted. The battle was better not fought. Such could be the fate of South Africa‚s rising political star, Jacob Zuma. On December 17, 2007, he secured a stunning victory over the country‚s State President, Thabo Mbeki, for position as President of the nation‚s major political party, the African National Congress (ANC). It set Zuma up for a potential power play with the President of the country who was still looking to retain BOTH roles. The latter‚s term of office ˆ barring calls for dismissal by a two thirds majority of MPs - still has 18 months to run until mid 2009.
Sadly for Zuma, his victory coincided with an attack from a state institution, the National Prosecuting Authority, which could ultimately be his undoing. They threw the book at him with a clutch of misdemeanors stretching back over a decade. Barring a miracle he faces a chain of events which can dash his hopes for leadership and send him to jail for a very long time. Resort to legal obfuscation may prove his downfall. On the other hand, telling the truth could expose every thing and every body. That way the country would experience a general Œcatharsis‚. Zuma would serve a minimum sentence ˆ short enough to allow him to become President before mid 2009. Will his lawyer let him do it? Maybe he won‚t. If both refuse, the truth will eventually still out, but in circumstances which lead to the self-destruction of all involved. The definition of Œall‚ could cast a net far wider than any suspect.
In this article ˆ No. 81 ˆ the writer seeks to roll out a credible version of what could happen ˆ to Zuma, the ANC, and the country. It seeks to cover political and economic changes, both in the immediate future and longer term.
SOUTH AFRICA‚S POSITIVE FUTUREFar from being concerned at the growing internal conflict within South Africa‚s governing political party, the writer is excited and believes there will soon be cause to rejoice. He is prophetically convinced God is intimately involved in exposing and bringing down a major spiritual stronghold in the area of corruption ˆ not just in government but throughout the nation. Restoring integrity to the manner in which public institutions conduct their affairs will set an example. No longer need children listen to a parent rail against the dishonest behaviour of those in authority. Businessmen will likewise have no further excuse for behaving in similar fashion. Every aspect of life could be affected. Instead of fearing the signs of turmoil, South Africans of all races and classes should welcome the prospect of positive change. It comes at a time when long-term world economic trends favor much of what the country has to offer ˆ its precious metals, minerals and resources.
MBEKI‚S LEGACY FRITTERED AWAYWithout in any way wishing to disparage the significant achievements notched up by the Mbeki government‚s present economic team in the areas of growth, fiscal discipline and balanced budgets, one has to acknowledge that many of the benefits have been frittered away. Five serious policy errors were made which allowed this to happen.
1. It has been estimated that the Mbeki regime wasted at least R50 billion on an ŒARMS DEAL‚ ˆ buying submarines, frigates, and fighter jets. It made a mockery of attempts to cap spending elsewhere, first in delaying permission for ESCOM to expand, second for blatantly refusing to consider an Œincome grant‚ for the poor. The latter suggestion came from the party‚s left wing. While the writer disagrees in principle with the concept of an income grant, one cannot simply ignore the problem of endemic poverty.
2. The regime‚s over-emphasis on ŒAFFIRMATIVE ACTION‚ in the absence of Œmentoring‚ and adequate training, led to the promotion of incompetents into positions of power and encouraged the emigration of many young whites with much-needed technical skills. Unspent budgets in government departments are glaring proof of a lack of capacity to implement.
3. Mbeki described criticism of his AIDS and CRIME strategies as Œracist‚. His reaction may have stemmed largely from inherited feelings of rejection. These made him overly sensitive to any form of criticism. While understanding the pain of his youth and the lack of any relationship with a real father, it in no way excuses the implementation of strategies which were later proven foolish and destructive. His view on AIDS made him an international laughing stock and, in the opinion of some, caused the death of thousands unable to access anti-retrovirals. Instead, the country‚s controversial health minister ˆ accused by the Sunday Times of being Œlight-fingered‚ in her youth - was urging AIDS sufferers to eat beetroot and garlic! Mbeki defended and protected her.
On the topic of high crime rates, the Minister of Safety Security, Charles Nqakula, told whites who complained, to EMIGRATE! Meantime the country‚s President went overboard in an effort to protect his friend, Jackie Selebi, the Commissioner of police, from being charged with fraud. Instead he suspended Vusi Pikoli, the head of the Scorpions who had charged the commissioner of police, but for reasons as yet unspecified.
4. Though relatively large amounts were spent on EDUCATION, the benefits realized have been disappointing. There were various reasons. They range from the enforced early retirement of skilled white teachers, to an inadequate pool of badly-trained replacements. Many of the latter lacked motivation and faced a school environment where discipline eroded after the abolition of corporal punishment. Teachers were often subject to violence. The disaster was compounded by strategies, such as ŒOutcomes-Based Education‚, which have been proven ineffective elsewhere. Bring back the three Œr‚s, „reading, Œriting and Œrithmetic‰, and proper exams!
5. Mbeki‚s close relationship with the international world of banking and finance helped him focus on market-friendly economic policies. Tragically it also led him to establish friendships with the likes of David Rockefeller, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan. Members of GATA ˆ the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee ˆ will immediately understand the extent to which an unsuspecting Black Government could be sucked into dependence on institutions which are prominent members of a so-called ŒGOLD CARTEL‚.The latter‚s recurring interventions in the bullion market have clearly been shown to have undermined the ruling price of gold over an extended period of time ˆ certainly since 1994 ˆ and all in an effort to protect the dollar. The cartel sought always to diminish gold‚s perceived attractiveness as a store of value by regularly suppressing the price through covert interventions in the market. This and other strategies - like falsifying the CPI statistics, and therefore the true extent of Consumer Price Inflation - enabled central banks to pursue monetary inflation without being held to account.
A political change in South Africa could effectively break links with members of the cartel. It would make it possible for another government to promote a major Œcatch-up‚ in the price of gold by throwing a spotlight on the institutions which prevented it in the past. This would include dismissing Œadvisors‚ from the Bank of England and merchant banks like JP Morgan. A copy of GATA‚s latest announcement is attached as Appendix 1. It appeared recently as a full page in both the Wall Street Journal and South Africa‚s Business Day.
As Gold plays Œcatch-up‚ with oil, copper and commodities, the South African Gold industry could experience a dramatic recovery. Over the coming decade production could conceivably rise by 50%, restoring the industry‚s role as the nation‚s most important employer of unskilled labor.For the above five reasons the writer is optimistic that the changes triggered by a Zuma surge in popularity, provide scope for an overall positive outcome.
The process may at times prove painful and embarrassing for those presently ensconced in positions of power- even for those seeking power after years in the wilderness. However, where authority has been abused for personal or party gain at the expense of a general public, Œnaming and shaming‚ is an inescapable element of the process of reform. This is when the man in the street will observe and learn lessons too hard to forget ˆ lessons which could stand him in good stead for the rest of his life.
NB: On the subject of JP Morgan and their membership of the Gold Cartel‚ which suppresses the price, note how quickly the bank made a play to ingratiate itself with Zuma by inviting him overseas. They have since become his official financial advisors. Note too how Tony Blair, the ex-British Prime Minister who, together with Gordon Brown, presided over the UK‚s sale of half its gold, has since been invited to consult for JP Morgan. Zuma‚s friends need to warn him about the dangers of falling into their clutches. They might be one better than Schabir Shaik, but not by much!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3.0 GOLD TARGETS $1200 BY END 2008On the main page of this report ˆ actually page 3 - headlines in bold capitals referred to Zuma, the ANC and Young Whites with pictures of Zuma and Mbeki above. These were followed by a series of sub-headings promising Œupdates‚, beginning with a section on GOLD. The balance of this report will deal briefly with the Œsub topics‚ set out on page 3. These include the Rand, the Sub Prime Tsunami, the Dollar and Dow, Iran, Big E, and the writer‚s latest ŒPick Six‚. After the implosion hitting world markets, the latter might temporarily have to be renamed ŒKick Six‚! Herewith then is the latest on GOLD.
3.1 CHARTING THE PRICE OF GOLDThere are a number of ways to measure and present gold‚s performance on a chart, over an extended period of time. If one chooses a starting point which precedes the closing of the gold window by Nixon in 1971, the price would still be pegged at $35 an ounce. In report No. 80, published on September 28, 2007, the writer selected a chart which connected each monthly average for the price of gold for every month since 1968. The September 1980 average came in at an all-time closing high of $690. The record had stood unchallenged for 27 years. Then, for September 2007, the price of gold managed an all-time monthly AVERAGE closing high of $735. The metal had made its first attempt back on May 12, 2006, when it reached an intra-day peak of $730, closing back down by month end at $658, containing the average below $690. Gold‚s September 2007 average of $735, eighteen months later, was therefore highly significant. No. 80 summarized it as follows:
„The writer believes that gold‚s break above $700 marks the beginning of a MULTI-YEAR period during which buyers of GOLD will enjoy investment OUT- PERFORMANCE over most, if not all, competing choices.‰
By the end of December 2007 and a mere month later, gold closed $100 higher at $835. The price then exploded and by January 14 had registered an intra-day all-time closing high of $914.
Remainder of 3.1 Gold Analysis is for subscribers
3.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE BREAK THROUGH $850As world markets reeled and crashed in recent weeks, gold reluctantly retreated from its January 14 peak of $914 but, the technical significance of the metal punching through $850 cannot be over-emphasized. The price had capped the market for 27 years, ever since the spike of 1980. When an event like this occurs ˆ after an initial run - one invariably gets a pullback to Œtest the break‚.
The present case was to prove no exception. On Tuesday January 22 gold sank back to an early morning intra-day low of $849,50, prior to bouncing smartly back to $890 by close of day. That should be it. Now it‚s off to the races.
3.3 A WHY GOLD WILL LEAD THE PACKlan Greenspan famously boasted that if called to run the FED during the next ŒKondratieff Winter‚, he would know exactly what to do. The crash of 1987 gave him the opportunity he sought. It occurred shortly after his surprise appointment as Chairman. Using the weapons of central bank intervention, he rapidly turned the tide. Instead of a healthy economic downturn being allowed to run its course, cleansing the system of excess, he activated the pumps. The mountain of debt grew bigger. Each time the credit bubble threatened to pop he cut rates, printed dollars, injected funds, and blew the balloon. The bubbles multiplied.
The last was housing but by then the artful dodger had retired. The latest implosion of debt via destruction of the sub prime mortgage market is spreading fast to bond insurers, banks and the economy at large. With the collapse of the housing bubble, growing pressure on jobs, and consumer credit at record levels, the man in the street is increasingly reluctant to borrow. He would rather pay down debt. The effectiveness of rate cuts will therefore be limited. In recognition of the problem, Bush has already announced a $150 billion fiscal plan involving tax cuts and bigger grants to the poor. Bill Gross of PIMCO has said he believes the government‚s fiscal response needs to be THREE TIMES BIGGER to halt the slide into recession.
For the second time in a week, the FED cut rates. Finally the market began to recover. „Helicopter Ben‰ Bernanke has been raised to a position of power for such a time as this. Recall his broadcast solution to a repeat of the ‚29 crash? It was to drop $100 bills from a helicopter! If spending is not sustained, the debt bubble will implode and lead to depression. The authorities are well aware of the danger. Central bank intervention must gather steam and be coordinated on a world-wide basis. If the alternative is a measure of hyper-inflation down the line, so be it. All new acts of intervention will accelerate the flight to gold. To start with the prognosis may not be that clear. Initially long bond yields could slide, confirming fears of a deflationary recession, but watch the price of gold! At some point in the future, the extent of FED rate cuts will scare the bond market. Long term interest rates will begin to rise, signaling the return of inflation. Gold will then e xplode. Remember the writer‚s forecast for 2011 - $3500 an ounce. Gold will lead the pack. Gold is the place to park one‚s funds.The remainder of the report dealing with specific gold and energy investments, especially South African, is for subscribers only.
The full report is 48pages and includes a full analysis of the South Africa‚s political future as well analysis of the Dollar, gold, and equities. The report goes on to give updates on our Œpick six‚ shares Goldfields, Randgold (RANGY), Afgold, Sallies, Uranium One and Sasol.
You can find out more about becoming a SUBSCRIBER at Peter George‚s website. The address is:
http://www.investmentindicators.com <http://www.investmentindicators.com/> -
Zitat
Original von Rhöngold
Ich hab den Mist jetzt abgeladen.(Martin Siegel empfehlt in der Zwischenzeit :
http://www.geocities.com/TheTr…8106/Anthems/thailand.htm
Hier blueht das Geschaeft, falscher Engel ...:D
Natural Resources and Environment Minister
Anongwan Thepsutin....empfehlt diese Engel :http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2qfhzal2N4&feature=related
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The dollar versus gold?... No contest
Why China and India have always been heavy-metal fans:
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Die Anti Korruptions Spezial Einheit der Polizei ( Scorpions ) wurde aufgeloest da sie gegen 34 % der im Parlament sitzenden Mitglieder Verfahren einleiten wollten sowie vorbestraft sind.
Kein Wunder das man den Verein aufgeloest hat in einer Sonder Abstimmung im Parlament sonst finden sie noch mehr die dort sitzen.
Ein Verbrecher Laden ist unsere Regierung sage ich nur, die machen ihre eigenen Gesetze gegen die Constitution (Grundgesetz) wann immer sie Lust haben.
Ein Freibrief fuer Korruption war das, die Herren sind nun unantastbar. -
Stell dir vor es steigt auf 2500 USD bis 2012, dann beisst dich in den A.
Was man machen kann ?..ganz einfach was kaufen was unten ist damit.
Z.B Property, oder Aktien wenn der Dow bei 6500 ist.XEX
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Richtig, das ganze ueberschneidet sich mit dem was Btrend scheibt sowie meinen Bauchgefuehl das bis ca. 20 Maerz das ganze weiter steigt.
Ich glaube das Zimmel auch ein peak fuer mitte april und mitte mai erwaehnte nach einer konsolidierung bis ??. die keiner genau weiss.
Laut Adam Hamilton sollte aber bis Mai das erwartete leg 8 kommen das den HUI um 50% ansteigen laesst auf ca.500 was sich zu viel anhoert IMO.
Super ware ein POG von 1200 $ bis Mai 2008, ein Wunschtraum ?
Ab Mai/Juni.....das erwartete sommerloch, falls die IMF anfangen den ersten teil der 3 tonnen gold von mitte april zu verkaufen sind bis august/september die preise unten.
Es seih denn es gibt ""bad news"" und alles trifft diesmal nicht zu, in der regel war die beste zeit gold zu kaufen im juli /august.Mal schaun was diese jahr zutrifft.....exect the unexpected, Augen auf !
In 2009 geht die Post ab, das rieche ich jetzt schon.XEX
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Also gut aufpassen was ab morgen passiert bis zum 7.Maerz. Laut Merriman haben wir ein Bild was ab November 2008 - Juli 2010 passieren kann.
The Sun is translating the Saturn-Uranus opposition of later this year, and hence February 25-March 7 may offer a glimpse of what to expect from November 2008 through July 2010 when that Saturn-Uranus opposition is in effect.
One might expect a very sudden turn of markets during that period, especially near the end, for Mars will also cross the 0 degree Cancer point on March 4. Historically that is a period when central banks make critical changes or announcements in their interest rate policies, which in turn affect Treasuries and currency prices, and by association, also precious metals and stock markets.”
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Oil could reach as high as $200 by the third or fourth quarters of this year
Energy Sector Trends Paint "A Very Alarming Picture"
The concept of 'peak oil' has been derided by the big oil companies for years, but last week the chief executive of the oil giant Royal Dutch Shell, Jeroen van der Veer, released a study forecasting the end of easy oil. Dr. Jim Buckee, retired president and chief executive of major independent Talisman Energy, claims he was not surprised that Royal Dutch Shell admitted oil supplies were getting tighter. Dr. Buckee says 'peak oil' is either here, or very close. "It is the underlying decline of the world's major fields that is the dominant driving factor here," he said.
If you think that at the moment the world is consuming 30-plus billion barrels a year of oil and is finding seven or eight billion barrels a year, and this state of affairs has been going on now for 20 or more years. . . It's obviously unsustainable and the world is increasingly drawing on the bigger, older fields. You couple that notion with the irreversibility of decline and you've got a very alarming picture."
Dr. Buckee says the cost of a barrel of oil could reach as high as $200 by the third or fourth quarters of this year, and that prices would have to get that high before it would have any particular impact on demand. "I don't think that really we've seen any rationing of consumption by price," he said. Source: (ABC Premium News (Australia))
Oil at $100 a barrel gives exporters an incentive to pump more, but their difficulty in doing so indicates the world is struggling to sustain production. A growing number of leading industry figures, including the CEO's of Total and ConocoPhillips, now question mainstream forecasts for supply. They suggest the era of "plateau oil" is nearer than many in the business have admitted.
Some argue it may not be possible to boost flows beyond the current rate of 86 million barrels per day (bpd). Conventional supply from non-OPEC producers have missed forecasts in recent years and appear for now to have hit an "effective plateau", according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), adviser to industrialized countries. (Reuters)
Global demand for oil is likely to grow by about 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008 according to forecasts by Lehman Brothers. Current global demand is roughly 86 million barrels per day. Some experts predict lower economic growth will reduce demand. Lawrence J. Goldstein, an economist at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, expects global demand to grow by less than a million barrels a day in 2008 due to slowing economic growth. (New York Times)
Nigeria has warned energy companies it wants to renegotiate oil and gas exploration and production contracts covering offshore oilfields in the next three months, claiming record prices are yielding a windfall to Western oil firms operating in that region. It is the first time Nigeria has come up with a timeframe for renegotiating the complex agreements. The government signaled late last year it would review the contracts in an effort to secure a greater share of profits from offshore production. The Nigerian move reinforces a global trend of oil-exporting countries demanding better concession terms to reflect surging prices. Oil executives say the government's decision to follow the example of countries such as Russia, Algeria and Venezuela. Militant violence in Nigeria has shut in a fifth of output since 2006. (Financial Times) Royal Dutch Shell, the largest foreign company in the strife-torn Niger River Delta, said it would take a $716 million charge against earnings due to the deteriorating security situation. Industry sources say that in addition to the production shutdown about 435 miles of pipeline and thousands of barrels a day of crude oil and condensates have been stolen. Much of the pipeline has been used for pillars in house construction. Nigeria's government is also not paying its share of joint-venture investments in the Shell venture, claiming it cannot fund its portion. Nigeria has budgeted only $5 billion of the $9 billion it was supposed to invest in the Shell operated project in 2008. Nigeria is one of the major OPEC exporters of light, sweet crude oil, so any disruptions in supply will quickly impact world markets. (Washington Post, BusinessWeek)
With oil markets booming Gulf states will enjoy a staggering, unprecedented increase in wealth over the next decade that will give them vast financial power across the globe. By one estimate, the five oil-and-gas-exporting nations - Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, with a combined population of 23 million citizens - will add $6.2-trillion (U.S.) to their revenues over the next 14 years. That's roughly the equivalent of adding Canada's total annual output to their revenues every two years. Those estimates assume oil prices of $70 per barrel. The producer's revenues would increase at higher average selling prices.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), a state-backed oil watchdog for industrialized countries, attributed recent record oil prices to pressures caused by strong demand and falling stock levels. In its monthly oil market report for January, the IEA forecast demand in 2008 of 87.8 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 2.3 percent, or 2 million bpd from 2007 levels. (AFP)
Average gasoline demand last month was 7 percent higher compared to the same week last year, even with prices 30% higher, according to a MasterCard report.
China is set to become the world's largest consumer of energy by about 2010 according to a study by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The World Energy Outlook report predicts that China will overtake the US in its energy use. The Chinese economy has expanded by 11.4% over the past year, reaching its fastest growth rate in 13 years. The Chinese economy is very energy inefficient. It takes more than four times as much energy to generate a unit of GNP in China than in does in the U.S. according to a recent study published by Gordon Feller (chart at right).
China's crude oil imports rose 12.4 percent in 2007 to a new record. Crude oil imports for 2006 increased 16.9 percent from the previous year. (Xinhua)
China is facing widespread, temporary electric power shortages that could affect global energy markets if they aren't resolved soon. The distribution system is having trouble keeping up with the country's rising demand for electricity. Regulators said yesterday that 13 provinces and major regions, including the industrial-and-export hub of Guangdong in the south, will experience a total shortfall of about 70 gigawatts of electricity - one-tenth of China's total. Coal stockpiles have fallen to less than half typical levels, analysts said. (Wall Street Journal)
China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao responded to growing public anxiety about inflation by announcing that China would freeze energy prices in the near term, even as international crude oil futures have continued to surge. Inflation has hit an 11-year high in China.
Crude oil production in Mexico's huge Cantarell oil field will continue to decline this year at around the same pace as in 2007, Pemex announced. Average daily production at Cantarell is forecast to drop by 200,000 barrels in 2008, increasing pressure on the state-owned oil monopoly to ramp up output at smaller oil fields. The decrease in production would be a drop of 16 percent from Cantarell's December 2007 output of 1.26 million barrels per day (bpd), its lowest level of the year. Yields at Cantarell declined 16 percent during 2007, slightly more than forecast. Pemex aims to keep its total crude output at around 3.1 million bpd by increasing production at other fields. Total Mexican output in 2007 declined by 5.3 percent. (Reuters)
The Energy Information Administration reported a record-high 274 Bcf natural gas draw from storage for the week ended January 25th. The five-year average draw is 185 Bcf. The draw from storage surpassed the previous record-high withdrawal of 260 Bcf (in January 1997) and comes on the back of powerful heating degree days that were 21% above normal.
Low nuclear utilization is one reason for the strong incremental gas demand. Imports from Canada are also lagging. For the month the draw was 659 Bcf compared to a five year average draw of 580 Bcf. Working gas in storage now totals 4% above the five-year average and 13% below last year's levels. Depending on the weather the next couple of months the volumetric draw from storage could be the largest we have ever seen. The chart at right from AmericanOilman.com tells the story. From a five year high (blue line) in week 49 of 2007 we have fallen quickly (yellow line) in 2008. If trends continue we will need to inject much more natural gas into storage this spring and summer than we did in 2007, which should help keep prices firm.
Before 2010, the price for a thousand cubic feet of natural gas will be $10 per thousand cubic feet, T. Boone Pickens predicted at a presentation last month. Crude oil prices will reach $100 a barrel again before the end of 2008. "We are importing 62 percent of our oil now, and the two largest producers are Saudi Arabia and Russia," Pickens said. "And the two largest consumers of oil are ourselves and China. . . We have kind of got ourselves in a bit of a spot that is going to get even more uncomfortable." (NewsOK.com)
The latest production figures published on theOilDrum.com website indicate that liquids production has jumped upward the last few months after more than two years of flat production. 'Liquids' includes both crude oil and natural gas liquids. Data is from the Energy Information Administration (red line) and the International Energy Agency (blue line), both credible sources. If 2008 global demand forecasts of nearly 88 million barrels per day are correct, even the spike in production will not meet the growing demand. In that case demand would have to be met by draw-downs in inventories. Or supplies would need to be rationed by higher prices.
While OPEC decided against expanding output in a meeting last month, some oil traders say that OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Angola have allegedly added around one million barrels a day to world supply since early last fall. If so, this spare capacity will assist in meeting growing demand and natural resource depletion rates inherent in many of the older fields. (Wall Street Journal)
We think the supply and demand trends in the energy sector are long term issues, and that they present very attractive opportunities for investors.
Joseph Dancy
LSGI Venture Fund
Adjunct Professor of Energy Law, SMU School of Law
February 23, 2008 -
Zimbabwe is reeling under an economic crisis with annual inflation officially at 100 580% - the highest in the world - and chronic shortages of basic commodities like fuel, cooking oil and sugar.
At least three million of its citizens, among them highly skilled professionals, have migrated to neighbouring South Africa, the United Kingdom and Australia.
"We are not going to patch up the tattered economy," Tsvangirai said. "The economy has been destroyed to such an extent that we need to start afresh."
"Zimbabwe is one of the world's great humanitarian crises. We need food, drugs and medical care. The nations of the world are helping but we need more.
"Beyond the humanitarian aid, we need the help of the world to rebuild our economy, but more than anything, we must look after our own."
He said $10bn would be required to revive the economy, including resuscitating companies that have folded and establishing a trust fund to woo back professionals who have left the country.