Beiträge von Eldorado

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    US Dollar


    Neville Bennett


    What is the significance of the weak American dollar? Is the weakness temporary? Is a structural shift occurring? I argue that the dollar has been in decline since 2005, but the present credit crunch is hastening the cession of the US dollar as the major reserve currency. The dollars’ future depends upon how massive exporters like China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, and newly industrializing countries, deploy their reserves.


    The decline of the dollar is partial response to market conditions. Investors note the Federal Reserve’s loosening attitude. Nevertheless, the decline is not due to traditional concerns about the current account deficit.
    A weak dollar has unleashed an export boom, which will reduce the deficit from 6.5% of GDP this year to 4-5% next year.


    The dollar is under pressure because of growing apprehensions of the economy crashing into recession, and the nervousness of foreign investors because of the dollars poor performance as a reserve currency. The subprime issue seems to get worse daily; there are $900 bn of securitised subprimes in the US, and the default rate may go to 20-25%, inflicting huge losses. The Case-Schiller housing index shows a 5% price fall this quarter. Other credit markets have seized up, and strains are obvious in the car, credit card, and asset-backed commercial paper markets. Only bonds are trusted and the 10- year yield has been bid down to 4%.


    The Fed has eased twice since September and is almost certain to ease again soon, possibly on December 11. Europe is not as badly affected by the credit crunch but its bank, like the Fed, has released a flood of liquidity to prevent markets freezing up in the short-term. Recent Fed forecasts reveal that the economy is more threatened than it believed in October, and it is now seriously concerned about a recession.


    Lawrence Summers of Harvard argues, "The odds now favour a recession that slows growth significantly on a global scale". He believes the derivative market is pricing in a 25% housing market correction. This would curb dramatically consumer spending. Banks will curb new lending because they have been hit by a perfect storm of declining capital due to mark-to-market losses, involuntary balance sheet expansion, and reduced confidence.


    The dollar is also weakened by rising energy costs, Summers says, geopolitical uncertainties (especially in the Middle East), and prospects of lower global growth.


    The Euro has surpassed the dollar as the most important currency in international bond markets. International Capital Market data indicates that at the end of 2006, bonds issued in Euro currency denomination was equivalent to US$4,836b., while bonds in US currency amounted to US$3,892. Moreover, last year the value of euro-denominated notes exceeded that of dollar notes for the first time.


    The growth of the Euro bond market has many causes. There is the growing tendency of governments to increase their debts. However, the most important cause is a switch by business and financial institutions to bonds rather than their traditional reliance on bank debt. Moreover, the Euro financial zone has increasingly sophisticated and deeper markets, which offers a huge range of excellent products. Several countries already have used the Euro as a reserve, including Russia and Iran.


    Most Gulf States contest the traditional links to the US dollar. Kuwait revalued its currency six months ago, and the Governor of the United Arab Emirates is pressing for a revaluation. Saudi Arabia alone defends the dollar link: partly because a shift to the Euro as the reserve currency would devalue Saudi’s existing dollar assets. Its support of the USA is primarily geopolitical.


    Geopolitical considerations are jeopardising the US-China relationship. The US Treasury has compromised relations by forceful demands for a significant revaluation of the Chinese currency. Congress threatens to place tariffs on Chinese imports unless the Yuan is revalued by 20-30%. This obsession undermines the US-Chinese relationship, and risks Chinese retaliation through moving its reserves out of the US dollar.


    The Chinese government has commenced a retaliatory campaign of threatening to liquidate its enormous holding of US bonds ($900 bn) if the US government imposes trade sanctions. The threats have come from officials, and reported in Chinese papers as a "nuclear" option, meaning a sell-off would cause the dollar to crash. It would also raise US interest rates, pushing the economy into recession.


    The renminbi has appreciated 9% over the last years but China is still notching up huge surpluses.


    The dollar is now at its weakest point since currencies were floated in 1971. Washington seems rather relaxed about the decline, especially as exports are surging. Other markets are horrified. One problem is that the decline is greater against strong currencies like the Euro. but not moving, of course, against the dollar block of pegged currencies like China and Saudi Arabia. The UK and Europe are forced into painful readjustments. while the dollar bloc is faced with strong inflationary pressures and falling US interest rates.


    The Euro zone resents the unwanted surge of international capital which is destabilizing. It is forcing an upward revaluation of the euro which has hit exporters (like Airbus) very hard..


    Some downward adjustment of the dollar might be desirable, but its decline in the present context of doubts about the real value of US securities, threatens to over-shoot, and turn into a rout. The world needs orderly change, but the present situation verges on disorder.


    Another massive change has occurred this year: a dominant pattern has ruptured. It was the system called Breton Woods 2, whereby newly industrializing countries pegged their currency to the dollar at an undervalued rate. They then invested their export surpluses in US securities. Since June this year, capital inflows have almost dried up according to the US Treasury International Capital system (TIC). In 2005, there was a net capital inflow of $70 bn per month. Since June this year, some months have modest inflows but others were strongly negative. The dollar is on a slippery slope. :rolleyes:

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    John Embry empfehlt in dem Interview :


    But I would say that anybody who believes in gold – and I believe everybody should believe in gold these days – should have some bullion as the core of their portfolio, in whatever form they choose to hold it.


    TGR: As far as a percentage, what would you suggest?


    EMBRY: I would say maybe 20% to 25%. And then the rest I would have a mixture of big-cap stocks for some sort of solidity, but for the real home-run potential, a diversified list of good quality juniors. ;)


    TGR: Why don’t you give us maybe three or four large-cap names that you think would be a core holding?


    EMBRY: The one that I like the best in terms of its exposure is Gold Fields (GFI) , the South African entity. I am not nuts about South Africa, but on the other hand, I think it’s more than discounted in the price, and they have the biggest reserve base of any company in the world. So, I like Gold Fields as a core holding in the big cap. One of the ones I liked was Meridian (MDG) , but as you know it got taken out by Yamana (AUY) . I am not nuts about Yamana; I own it, but I am not as crazy about it; it’s not as clean a play to me as Meridian was.


    But if you’re going for the best bang for your buck, I would guess that a Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) or an Agnico-Eagle(AEM) a re interesting. But that’s not my space; I am not particularly adept at that. The other one I like is Goldcorp Inc. (GG). Goldcorp . . .would be a core holding in the big companies.


    So, again it's a quality thing, I would go Gold Fields, Goldcorp, and one of Kinross or Agnico or Yamana.
    Even though I’m not crazy about the assets, Yumana has sort of a cachet with the investing public and in a higher gold price environment, it will do well.


    EMBRY: I can’t think of a better time to buy juniors; it is one of the very best times. I think the best time was at the bottom in 2000 and 2001. But given where the gold price has come and the way some of these juniors are trading, I think we’re being presented with another unbelievable opportunity. I’d be really shocked if my fund didn’t at least double over the next 12 months. And I think it’s going to be good in all currencies in the next 12 months. That will be my final word. (11/29/07) :D


    ..der link steht im Junior thread wer mehr wissen will.

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Nach dem grossen Waschtag gestern kommt nun die Waesche raus zum trocknen bei dem schoenen Wetter in Kapstadt. :D


    Hier Merriman, Kommentar fuer die naechste Woche:


    ...On Friday, December 7, the Sun will square Uranus. It happens on the day when the Employment and Payroll reports come out, which typically leads to very large price swings anyway.


    http://www.mmacycles.com/weekl…ginning-december-3,-2007/

  • Schnäppchen Eck..welche Aktie ist preiswert im Moment

    Guten Morgen Lucky ;)


    Ich habe mir gerade das Massaker von gestern angeschaut und noch ein paar andere IMO preiswerte MInen als Tipp in meinen Musterdepotthread gelegt die ich leider nicht nachkaufen darf. Ich sitze nun auf der Strafbank und habe erstmal Spielverbot sonst.... :P
    Dafuer gab es gestern einen menge CEF und ZSIL die als Cash angesehen werden von der Belehnung die A..knapp ist.
    Ich habe keine Angst vor den naechsten Wochen und denke die meisten haben gestern das Handtuch geschmissen.
    Jim Sinclair war so sauer ueber die Lemminge das er sie als ""Pussies"" bezeichnet hat. :D...ich gebe ihm recht !
    In so einer Zeit sollte man den Mut haben und kaufen wenn Blut auf den Strassen fliesst. Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher du machst nichts falsch bei der SWG und falls es klappt dann trinken wir mal ein Glas Bier oder Wein auf deine Rechnung. Falls nicht...dann zahle ich zwei. :D
    Touch wood, IMR und SWG halten sich unter den Umstaenden bis jetzt super und schauckeln nicht rum wenn der Wind pfeift, sagt das was aus ??
    Ach, ich brauche keinen Sessel im Aufsichtsrat, ich brauche nur einen Profit, erstmal einen Gleichstand dann bin ich auch happy. :]
    Bei den zwei heisst es laengere Zeit warten wobei IMR der gefaehrlichste Zock ist der aber vom Kurs IMO ebenso ausbeblutet ist wie bei der SWG wo keiner durchblickt wie viel Boka eigentlich hat und ob es sich lohnt dort zu produzieren. Eine Uebernahme von SWG ist moeglich da einige Chinesen scharf drauf sind die in die Finger zu bekommen sagt man in der Geruechtekueche....die Geschichte ist noch nicht zu Ende und Joe Grosso hat nur mehr eine Chance ueberig.


    Good Luck....Lucky


    XEX

  • Take a pick...just before 800

    Leider sitze ich auf der Strafbank seit Freitag fuer eine gewisse Zeit und habe erstmal Spielverbot bei diesen preiswerten Minen.


    MGN GFI KBX PZG SRLM.OB EPL.V EPZ.V ITH.V SST.V ECO.TO GGN.TO AMM.TO MMM.TO RDV.TO


    So bleibte mir nichts anders uebrig als physisch am Freitag nachzuladen, wenigstens was.


    Gold und Silber ist immer Cash. ;)


    Cheers


    XEX

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Jim Sinclair tonight :



    Sometimes I wonder why I make such an effort when so many of you just throw the Formula into the ocean and deluge me with that damn Goldman report which means nothing whatsoever. Who made Goldman the last word in Gold?


    A CIGA told me today I was trying to herd cats. I guess what he meant was there are many out there that act simply as a bunch pussies.


    Remember a week ago all the talk about buying gold on reaction? Where did that all go except among those mad men like myself, Trader Dan and Monty. I will for the first time say I am frustrated by how fast many of you run away.


    Oh save me from Gold, Goldman is a Gold bear. Oh save me from Gold, Paulson is going to fix trillions in melting derivative as well as stopping the mortgage problem from smothering the entire world economy. Oh save me from Gold the dollar is looking a wee bit better. Madness is the only word to describe where many of your reasoning has gone. :D


    To the bunch of raving pussies, put your money in the rock banks, load up on dollars, increase your deposits with Internet financial entities, buy financial and homebuilding entities, go long Fanny and Freddie and of course buy all the securitized debt you can find. Now how calm do you feel? :D


    This is all going to change with the dollar as its little rally falls flat. Gold will rise faster than it fell. Good precious metals shares will gap up, leaving the sold out bulls (the most viscous Bear on earth) sucking their thumbs. ;)


    http://jsmineset.com/


    I honestly believe that this is the worst brain fart I have seen in the gold community since $248 and I have seen some real bouts of cranium flatulence since we all got together.


    Get hold of yourself. Nothing is going to be fixed. The dollar is shot. Gold is going to $1050 followed by $1650. Gold shares are going up by orders of magnitude. You are the sold out bull and the sold out bull rarely gets back in until he/she buys the next top. :D