The salient point is that while those of us who believe in the values offered by gold and silver like to think of them as "substantial" markets, when it comes to futures markets, they are like a gnat on the tail of an elephant.
To make the point, consider that the cash value of foreign-currency contracts traded globally each 24-hour period is on the order of $3.2 trillion.
By comparison, over the same 24-hour period, on average, $26 billion worth of gold trades hands. For silver, the number is even smaller, just $4.5 billion.
All of which is to say that (a) these are markets that can be "pushed around" by the traders, and (b) when a large number of traders shift into "take profits" mode, the price of the metals can be trampled.
The long and short of it is that range trading will go on for awhile, until something occurs in the psychology of the market that shifts the majority into the long side… at which point the upper end of the trend is decisively broken and the range is reset to a higher level.
It is my contention that the top of the range for gold is now $1,000, and we could see it continue to test that level, then fall back, for some time.
But really, who can say ? It could happen literally almost overnight.
Time to go long in the futures market? Well, on that topic, all I can say is, tread carefully… and use as little margin as possible just now.
That’s because, as wild as things have been in pretty much all the markets, we haven’t seen anything yet.
If there is one thing you can take to the bank, it is that, in the months just ahead, the volatility of virtually all markets is going to go ballistic.
For the attentive trader, that can mean big, and repeated, opportunities for profit. But for the casual trader, high volatility can lead to quick loss making.
Sticking to a longer-term perspective – buying and holding and, if resources allow, buying more on the dips – is the way to go.