Beiträge von Eldorado

  • Uranaktien: Minen, Explorer, Produzenten, Anwender

    Uran Minen Kurse sind ein Sonderangebot IMO


    Just watch Cigar Lake.....


    Das Geld das sie beim Verkauf rausgezogen haben kommt wieder zurueck zu dem Markt......sooon... :]


    Genauso wie bei den PM's aber in doppelter Menge ! :D


    Marc Faber den ich schaetze sagte er haette lieber Uran ind der Hand als Gold in der Krise,... also bleiben nur Aktien die auch in $$ strahlen. :)


    300 kg haben nicht viel Wert. :D..besser Goldbarren. .die passen noch ins Auto. :D


    Oder gleich in der Schweiz, besser in Vaduz, Singapore und Dubai die Barren legen und den lieben Gott einen guten Tag wuenschen.


    HURRY UP ! :D...wer noch $$ Benzin hat...ob Uran oder physisches Gold dann bist ok !


    Give me 5 (%) at least !! :P

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Raketenstart :D...ein kleines Tauziehen wuerde ich sagen.


    Ich schau am Freitag wieder auf die Preise... dann sollte alles klar sein wo wir stehen.


    Job erledigt....ansonsten auf der Beach mit einen Pina Colada. :P


    Gratuliere alle die mutig waren und sich nicht abwerfen liessen von diesen Gangstern.


    Wer gekauft hat auf Teufel kommt raus sollte spaeter belohnt werden.


    Vergisst nie, its a long time investment and better than Fiat.


    Jede Bullshit Show geht vorbei, auch diese.


    Gruss


    Eldo

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Mein Einkauf ist zu 85% erledigt, IMO das schlimmste ist vorbei. :D
    Das waren ja specials... :P
    Lustig, die Trader verkauften Gold weil sie kein Cash haben fuer ihre margin calls.
    Die Profite die ich bei 685 $ abgeraeumt habe ist nun wieder drin.
    Wenn CNBC posaunt das Gold kein Safehaven mehr ist sollte man kaufen.
    Schmeisst Euer Gold weg, die(Gummi) Baeren sind da. :D

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Fuchs, ich gratuliere, buy when there is blood in the streets.
    Zumindest hast du es schon in der Tasche, egal ob es noch ein wenig runter geht. ;)
    Mal schaun was die Crimex Kanonen alles abschiessen vor dem opening.
    Mich wuerde interessieren woher der Druck aus Europa kommt.
    Die EZB's wahrscheinlich... :rolleyes:

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Never mind, meine Kauflimits bei Silber und Gold Optionen wurden nicht erreicht, 3-5 cents out....zu gierig bringt auch nichts.
    War das vorhin der Boden bei 635 und 12.50 $ oder haut Comex nochmals zwischen 14.30 und 15.30 pm nochmals drauf ?
    Ich habe kurzfristig nichts dagegen.. :D


    Ich hoffe das der Dollar Index wieder unter 83.50 bald faellt, dann kommt die Trendwende sicherlich. ;)

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Gutso, der Yen Carry trade ist angeblich vorbei, ich frage mich was die Investoren mit dem Cash machen das sie rausgezogen haben.
    Einfach auf die Seite legen oder warten bis etwas im Eimer ist das dann gekauft wird.
    Mein Bauchgefuehl sagt das wenn ein Anstieg beim POG irgendwann kommt dann ein grosser Sprung nach oben kommt.


    Jedenfalls unsere Theorie das bei einem Crash der POG steigt stimmt momentan nicht. Bin gespannt wie der HUI und XAU im Vergleich zum DJ sich heute verhaelt. Der Dow scheint Richtung 10.000 zu gehen.


    Um 14.30 kommen die Gangster von GS, bin gespannt wie sich der POG und POS vor dem opening verhaelt.


    Vielleicht ist das die beste Zeit bei OS und physisch einzukaufen, kurz vor dem opening.


    Ueber 650 und 13 $ sind wir aus dem Schneider.


    Good luck to all


    XEX

  • Das neue Südafrika

    Waerend unser Staats President nicht zugeben will das die Kriminalitaet ausser Kontrolle ist baut er sich gleichzeitig eine hohe Mauer fuer 80.000 Rand um sein Haus mit elektrischen Zaun noch als Extraposten.


    Im Gegensatz zu ihm sagt der andere Kandidat Jacob Zuma der bei der naechsten Wahl kanditiert ganz was anderes:


    Crime is a reality, says Zuma


    2007-3-4 22:51


    Cape Town - The line in the sand between the African National Congress deputy president and President Thabo Mbeki came into sharp relief this weekend with Jacob Zuma's statement that crime "is not a perception".


    While on a visit to the family of murdered farmer Willie Slabbert, 57, of Meyerton, south of Johannesburg, Zuma said crime was not a perception for the Slabbert family, but a reality.


    "They have been affected by crime three times in quick succession.


    "No one should live in fear in this country," he said after the visit. :D


    "We should not debate if crime is, or is not, getting worse. We should be working at it with all urgency.


    "The ANC takes crime, and especially farm murders, very seriously, " said Zuma.


    On Tuesday, Slabbert was battered to death with a hammer and stabbed with a long chisel and a knife at his house, at Zomerlust farm wedding venue, near Vereeniging. :(


    On Wednesday, his niece, Daleen Kruger,53, died of a heart attack after she heard of his death.


    In 1999, family member Theuns de Lange was crippled during a hijacking.


    Zuma has HIV test :D


    Zuma's statements contrast sharply with those of Mbeki in January when he said on TV that it was "a perception" that crime was out of control.


    Mbeki was sharply criticised because his televised statement contrasted with his call a week earlier at Witbank, for national consensus on the "crime plague" in the country.


    In what is regarded as another jab at the head of state, Zuma had his HIV-status tested on Friday.


    The Sunday Independent reported on Sunday that Zuma had had his status tested at his home town, Inkandla, in KwaZulu-Natal and encouraged others to follow his example.


    The apparent attempt to woo Afrikaners continued on Sunday.


    His spokesperson Ranjeni Munusamy said that Zuma's feeling was that Afrikaners should once again become part of the nation-building experiment in South Africa.


    More-frequent meetings urged


    "They should be part of it," she quoted Zuma as saying.


    This followed Zuma's statement on Saturday at Meyerton that Afrikaners should talk to the government more frequently on matters of language, culture and security.


    "This land is for Afrikaners and everyone living in it."


    Munusamy said acknowledging the various cultural groups was of utmost importance to Zuma.


    "Zuma's meeting last week with (activist and singer) Steve (Hofmeyr) and his visit to the family of the murder victim was merely a continuation of his dialogue with Afrikaners. ;(


    "During his time as deputy president, he met regularly with Afrikaners. They felt he understood them," she said on Sunday.


    Independent political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said the visits and sentiments contrasted sharply with those of Mbeki.


    'Reaching out' is welcomed


    "Zuma is seeking to dispel the argument that crime is a problem that affects certain groups - read whites - by validating their fears as something that is shared by all," said Matshiqi.


    Meanwhile, the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) welcomed Zuma's statement during his visit to the Slabbert family.


    "His attempt to reach out to Afrikaners is welcomed at a time of greater tension and polarisation," said FF+ party leader Dr Pieter Mulder. :rolleyes:


    Beeld

  • Das Shanghai Syndrom

    Paul van Eeden


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    China


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------




    On Tuesday for the first time in modern history China became a world financial trendsetter. The Chinese stock markets declined (the Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.84% and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 8.54%) and stock markets around the world fell like dominos.



    That China is important to the world's economies and financial well-being should not have caught anyone by surprise. China has been credited, or accused, depending on your point of view, with the increase in commodity prices for several years now and the ascent of its vast population to middle class is supposedly going to convert hundreds of millions of investors all over the world into millionaires. So when China's stock markets fell, the world took notice.



    The reason for the markets' fall was China's government's announcement the previous day of a top-level task force to clamp down on illegal activities in the securities markets. Chinese investors have been flocking to stocks hoping to get rich, just as North American and European investors have been snapping up anything to do with China hoping not to get left behind. Chinese capitalism is today's Wild Wild West where just about anything can and will happen, where for every greedy investor there is an appropriately constructed plan to part him from his money and now the government wants to put an end to it.



    The Chinese banking system is rife with bad loans made to well-connected people who set up unprofitable businesses. Corporations borrowed money to build factories, offices and apartments, many of which are empty or operating at a loss. The boom in China's stock markets was, to some extent, also driven by debt, although I suspect it would be near impossible to figure out just how much of the speculation had been undertaken with borrowed money. When markets are debt-driven they are massively volatile both during the upswing, as an inordinate amount of money chases limited stocks, and during the down-cycle, as investors panic and fret about losing all they have and more, so it is not really surprising that China's stock markets took a plunge.



    The only explanation for the contagion caused by China this week is that investors across the globe have entrusted their money to mutual fund and hedge fund managers that are gambling on the greater fool theory with their clients' capital. When the markets around the world fell in sympathy with China it illustrated loud and clear that many investors have no interest or faith in the companies they own; they are merely holding them in the hope of trading the stocks to another fool in the future.



    According to the World Bank approximately one third of all of China's production is exported, and if you consider the flow through effect then perhaps more than half of China's economy is export dependent. As a bellwether, the USA being the world's largest economy and largest consumer is therefore far more indicative.



    Unfortunately the United States is not in good shape. The latest from the Commerce Department is that durable goods orders fell 7.8% in January; the National Association of Realtors reported that January new home sales were down 4.3% from last year and the median sales price was down 3.1%; the Commerce Department revised gross domestic production for the last quarter of 2006 down to 2.2% from an earlier estimate of 3.5%; business spending fell 2.4% in the last quarter although consumers did their part by increasing their spending by 4.2% yet residential fixed investment fell 19.1%.



    Consumer spending accounts for more than 75% of US economic activity and the US accounts for more than a third of all the economic activity in the world. The US consumer accounts for about 25% to 30% of global economic activity, meaning that if US consumer spending fell by only 5% there would be a 1.25% to 1.5% reduction in world-wide economic activity. There is no other single more important economic factor than the US consumer. Because the US consumer has been financing his spending with borrowed money generated mostly due to rising real estate values, we should look at the US real estate market for future guidance - not to the Chinese stock market.



    Existing home sales fell 8.4% in 2006, the sharpest decline in home sales in 24 years. 30-year mortgage rates are still only at 6.14%, and so homes should be very affordable, but because of rising real estate values home buyers are battling to meet mortgage payments. Falling real estate prices have reduced some home values below their outstanding mortgages, making the homeowners prone to default on their mortgage payments. Nearly 6% of all sub-prime home loans were more than two months in arrears by the end of last year and first-year delinquency rates are up about 200% in little over two years.



    Approximately 16% of all mortgages issued last year were to sub-prime borrowers and with falling real estate prices the money available to these borrowers is drying up. That will reduce demand for homes.



    There is an index (part of the ABX family of indices) that tracks how much it costs to insure BBB-minus rated bonds backed by mortgages to sub-prime borrowers. When the index falls it means such mortgages cost more to insure, which in turn is a proxy for the risk and value of these mortgages (as risk increases, insurance increases and value decreases). The index is down almost 30% since the beginning of the year. More than 20 sub-prime lenders have closed shop after having to repurchase bad loans they originated.



    Mortgage defaults are now the highest in five years and rising with many of the problems tracing back to adjustable rate mortgages - what a surprise! Mortgage lenders such as Bank of America and Citigroup are now trying to get borrowers with adjustable rate mortgage to switch to fixed rate mortgages. That's a smart move for both parties: the US budget deficit will eventually cause interest rates to rise to much higher levels. Some banks are now also allowing borrowers to sell their homes for less than the outstanding mortgage and then forgive the shortfall since it is often less costly and time consuming than foreclosing on the homes. The catch is that borrowers may find they have to pay income tax on the forgiven debt. Sales of homes for less than their outstanding mortgage debt increased by 25% during 2006 according to Bank of America.



    Keep in mind that the increase in bad loans is broad based and is occurring during exceptionally strong economic conditions, at least if you believe the authorities and talking heads. US consumer confidence is still at a five year high indicating that the collapse of the US real estate market has not had a major effect on consumer spending yet. What is going to happen when consumer confidence finally does fade and economic growth does stall?



    As more and more home owners get into financial trouble and more and more homes go on sale it puts downward pressure on house prices. Home prices fell in about half of all metropolitan areas during the fourth quarter of 2006. For the first time since the National Association of Realtors started recording home prices in 1979 home prices fell in the majority of the cities surveyed.



    Home construction has fallen to its lowest level in ten years. Housing starts in January fell 14.3% and building permits fell 2.8%. Luxury home builder, Toll Brothers, reported a 67% decline in its last quarter's profit as it wrote down inventory. The company also lowered its earnings outlook for 2007 based on fewer orders and rising cancellations. The company's net orders are down 33% from a year earlier as it struggles with a 30% cancellation rate.



    It's not just real estate loans that are going sour. Wells Fargo, the 4th largest bank in the US by market value, reported $726 million in net credit losses for the fourth quarter and most of these were concentrated in its auto-lending portfolio. Consumers are increasingly unable to pay for all those new cars they bought when the car companies were running specials to get rid of inventory. US Bancorp, the 6th largest bank, saw a 25% increase in charge-offs and predicted that writing off retail loans will continue to increase during 2007. These are by no means the only banks seeing an increase in loan defaults, merely an example of what is happening.



    The problems don't end with autos and homes either - the economy is integrated. Home Depot expects earnings during 2007 to fall between 4% and 9% as it doesn't expect the residential and housing markets to improve during the year. Manufacturing output fell 0.7% in January with manufacturing capacity utilization at only 79.6%. Manufacturing of automobiles fell 6% in January and excluding autos, industrial production was still down 0.2% for the month.



    Is this all not more worrisome than the pullback of an over-bought Chinese stock market?



    The dollar lost about 2.5% against the yen during the week. I wrote about the yen carry trade and how, when it unwinds, it will cause the dollar to fall. Last month Japan raised its overnight interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% and this is potentially far more significant than what happened in China this week. Higher Japanese interest rates will cause the yen to appreciate on foreign exchange markets and will put pressure on the yen carry trade. On Tuesday of this week the dollar recorded its largest decline versus the yen in over a year as investors sold dollars to buy yen.



    It is somewhat incorrect to say that the dollar is falling since it is actually the yen that is rising. The dollar has been reasonably steady against most major currencies this week but the yen rose against almost all of them. I suspect that over time the yen will rise against most currencies and the dollar will fall against most currencies because much of the yen carry trade involves being long dollars and the US still has an enormous trade deficit that has to be addressed.



    From my perspective as an investor primarily interested in gold, the events of the week were very interesting because the gold price in US dollars fell even though the dollar was down sharply against the yen.



    Unlike the investors who panicked and sold this week, I was happy to see falling gold stocks. Share certificates are certificates of fractional ownership in a business and I only buy stocks of companies that I really want to own, so I don't mind if the share prices fall because it means that I can increase my ownership at a lower cost than before the decline. When I look at my portfolio and see a stock that I would not like to see fall in price I sell it immediately, before it has a chance to decline.



    With gold and gold shares falling I am quite content to wait and see what happens. Nobody can predict the future so to sit and debate whether this is going to be a big decline, a long decline, a short decline, a non-event, is pointless. The markets are so emotionally driven and far removed from any sense of value that there is no telling what will happen or how long it will take. Fortunately, if the carnage is short lived then stock prices will soon recover and everyone will be happy. If the declines continue then we will find much better buying opportunities going forward and I'll be very happy.



    At some point I think the US dollar is going to come under serious pressure and when that happens the dollar and the gold price will decouple, with the gold price rising and the dollar falling. I am actually hoping that the gold price continues to fall in the interim as it only means there will be more money to be made in the longer term.



    Paul van Eeden

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Flo, wie waere es mit Wind, Solar, Oilsand,Uran, Kohleverfluessigung, Ethanol Einsatz bei 100 USD Oilpreis.


    Bis 2009 steigt die politische Spannung noch weiter an, daher auch der Oilpreis.


    Die Strasse von Hormus zu blockieren reicht schon aus dann ist der Oilpreis gleich bei 80 USD.


    Gruss


    XEX

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    @silber-flo


    Astronomie und Astrologie ist tausend Jahre alt und eine vergessene Wissenschaft ueber die ich nicht lache.
    Da ist was wahres dran auch wenn es schwer begreiflich fuer einige ist.


    Ich bin gerade beim lesen von Raymond Merriman's Buch


    Voraussagen fuer 2007


    Klar, letztes Jahr geschrieben, ich bin erstaunt was ich dort alles lese.
    Der hat sogar die Daten drin wann sich was bewegt, die stimmen zu Grossteil bis jetzt.


    Ab den 5. Maerz aendert sich nun wieder einiges.
    Naechste Woche wird sich einiges bewegen.


    Planetenstellungen, Mondphasen, Zyklen, spielen eine Rolle sichtbar oder nicht, das Universum spielt in unseren Leben eine Rolle.


    Ich kenne mich in dem Bereich wenig aus und folge in erster Linie meinen Riecher und Bauchgefuehl, danach schaue ich auf Astrowerte die es bestaetigen oder nicht. Ihr koennt lachen,auch Tarotkarten lege ich hin und wieder wenn ich verwirrt bin und nicht weiss was ich tun muss.


    Er schreibt das Gold und Silber nun in einer Talsohle ist bis Ende Juli.
    Ob die Talsohle schon jetzt erreicht ist werden wir in den naechsten Monaten schon sehen, ich hoffe die Sohle ist bei 640 USD und es geht nicht weiter runter. Die Elliots warten immer noch auf die 570 $. :D
    Jetzt oder danach kommt der grosse Ausbruch der mit einigen Korrekturen bis ungefaehr mitte 2009 und Spitzenwerte bis 1000 USD und 20 USD erreichen kann, danach kommt wieder eine heftige Korrektur. Oil sollte bis auf 100 USD in diesen Zeitraum ansteigen und danach stark abfallen aufgrund neuer Technologie bzw. anderer Energie die kommen muss bei dem Preis.


    Er schreibt unter anderen das immer noch die Gefahr besteht und Gold auf 570 $ fallen koennte.
    Bei Silber wird es unter die 11 USD nicht gehen bis Juli 2007.
    Wichtig ist das die ATH's bei Silber und Gold von Mai 2006 ueberschritten werden um auf die neuen Hoechstwerte zu kommen.


    Sicher, Merriman sieht nur die Planeten und jeder Preis haengt von Angebot und Nachfrage ab am Ende des Tages.
    Irgendwelche Krisen koennen das Bild wieder veraendern, daher sind die Daten nur eine Richtlinie.


    Kritische Umschwungdaten fuer Gold und Silber 2007:


    22.Januar
    09. bis 12. Februar
    02. bis 05.Maerz
    01.Mai (auch 24.April oder 10.Mai denkbar)
    24-25.Mai
    21.Juni (4.Juni bis 1.Juli ist insgesamt hervorgehoben !!)
    9. bis 10. Juli
    31.Juli
    09. August
    07. bis 10. September
    10.Oktober
    02. bis 5.November
    12.November (07. bis 19.November)
    10.Dezember
    21.- 24 Dezember (18. bis 30. Dezember)


    Bei diese Daten innerhalb von drei Boersentagen ist ein Umschwung moeglich.


    Schaut doch selber hin und wieder am Montag seine Wocheprognose(Aktuelle Finanztrends) an und vergleicht die eine Woche spaeter, ihr werdet ueberrascht sein.


    http://www.astrodata.com/shop.…asp&nav=45&ShowAnim=false


    Mal schaun ob nun die 635-640 halten, naechste Woche kommt der Test.
    Es koennte auch eine Bullenfalle werden und danach gehts unter die 600 USD war ich nicht glaube. Ich rechne mit grosser physischen Nachfrage, man will bestimmt seine Fiat Dollars noch loswerden bei den Spotpreisen bevor er unter die 83 USD/IDX abschmiert.



    ISBN 3-00-020183-1
    Preis 36 Euro


    Spica


    Du bist hier der Astrologe im Forum, kannst du uns nicht mehr Planeten Warnungen bzw. Kauf/Verkauf Signale geben was den Handel mit Gold und Silber angeht ?


    Thanks


    XEX