Marcher, fuer die Pfenningfuchser spielt es aber eine grosse Rolle. 
Die wollen immer alles wenn es am billigsten ist und kriegen den Hals nicht voll.
Die sind auch die ersten die vom Bullen fallen.
GOLD = GEDULD
Der Schnitt zaehlt......meiner ist im Moment 484 USD
Physisch brauche ich nichts mehr, ich habe nun genug fuer die Kinder und mein Rentenalter.
Lets have some tea and watch the PPT game.
Unser Saccard sagt gar nichts mehr zum Thema.
Wo ist er denn ?... Gold kaufen ?
Gruss
XEX
Alles klar auf der Andrea Doria ?
Edel, sogar die NSU faehrt in dem Tsunami
Golden Goliath stoert das auch nicht und geht weiter.
Es sind nicht alle im roten Bereich, einige Aktien steigen sogar.
Falls man viele Aktien hat...
Langfristig hat sich nicht geaendert, der Bulle macht nur eine Pause und holt tief Luft.
Wer gut und richtig diversifiziert hat kommt auch da durch.
Ich erinnere mich noch als ich anfing fiel mein Depotwert um 50% in 1996-1999
Die Banker sagten mir kauf Yahoo und rette dich, weg mit dem Goldaktien, Gold is dead !
Sie gaben mir eine Tasse Kaffee anstatt wie sonst mich zum Mittagessen einzuladen.
Ich blieb hart und heute habe ich mein Geld verneunfacht das ich vor 12 Jahren hatte sowie gelebt dabei.
Ok, die Schulden sind seit dem auch ums 11 fache gestiegen.
Beim letzten Besuch habe ich wieder gut gegessen, sie schaetzen mich als Kunde und sind viel toleranter als damals.
Die Zocker/Rookies/Unglaeubigen die ganz schnelle Gewinne wollen und nie geblutet haben oder abwarten koennen sollen nun schnell ihr Geld zur Sparkasse bringen oder Dow kaufen und nie mehr das Wort Gold/Silber in den Mund nehmen.
Cheers + good luck, gold und silber bugs 
Noch ist nicht aller Tage Abend, the big showdown will start soon.
XEX
Obwohl Arabien immer noch wichtig ist muessen sie bald Farbe bekennen.
Die meisten Oilprinzen leben in der Schweiz.
Terroranschlaege auf Oilfelder kann es immer geben und viele Muslims sind sauer auf die Prinzen.
Russland ist die Numero Uno und Iran wird sich eventuell mit Irak irgenwann verbuenden und sind dann die Nummer 2.
Dann schau mal gut hin wo der Oilpreis steht
Opec hat mehere Mitglieder, die Saudis alleine koennen den Oilpreis nicht aufhalten wo er hingehen wird.
Die meisten sind sauer auf die Amis vergiss das nicht.
Nicht alle sind Nutten der Amis, das Rad wird sich drehen, IMO.
Es ist alles eine Sache der Zeit die man abwarten kann.
Ciao
XEX
Genau Lupo, nur keine Panik an Board, nur die Lemminge springen von Board.
Die Profis haben immer noch ein reserviertes Rettungsboot falls es wirklich so heftig kommen sollte.
Jeder muss selber wissen wann er die Reissleine zieht, das ganze ist Nervensache.
Die Weicheier sollen mal alle die Flucht ergreifen, mir soll es Recht sein.
Pfirty, viel Glueck und Erfolg die an Board bleiben.
XEX
Die Ratten verlassen das angeblich sinkende Schiff, go ahead and swim between the sharks.
Wer keine Nerven hat der soll jetzt von Board springen von mir aus und zurueck ins Fiatgeld investieren .
Ich hoffe es passiert in den naechsten Tagen dann ist der Markt wenigsten ausgewaschen von den Trittbrettfahrern.
Ich hoere sie jetzt schon jammern wenn Gold wieder ansteigt und ihr Fiatgeld wertloser wird .
Only the strong and clever guys survive.
Beamte bringen ihr Geld auf die Sparkasse, Goldbugs nuetzen die Gelegenheit und kaufen mehr wenn sie koennen.
Ende Januar wissen wir mehr ob das Schiff absaeuft.
Gruss
Eldo
Hi Dau2006
Beides, ich kaufe oft gehaemmerte Aktien, bei der GEM kann ich nicht mehr verlieren da ich vorher schon fett abgeraeumt habe.
Edel hat mich gehekelt weil ich sie nicht habe, da habe ich sie gleich spasshalber gekauft fuer 1.14 CAD.
Ob die nun weiter steigt werde ich sehen, sie ist nur ein neuer Zock fuer mich.
Ich habe keinen Platz mehr fuer neue sonst muss ich das Yahoo Depot splitten.
Gruss
Eldo
Darf ich auch mitmachen...
Dau2006
10%-15% Gewinn sind sicher drin bis Oktober, aber wenn du die nicht brauchst dann lasse es mal.
Bei den Aktien koennte es das doppelte sein.
Selbst wenn der POG noch auf die 580 geht bin ich froh das ich physisch bei 614 $ gekauft habe.
Mal schaun 
Gruss
XEX
""Wo wird wohl der Goldpreis sein, wenn es plötzlich kalt wird und Öl auf 65 Dollar anspringt und der Dollar gegen Euro wieder fällt"""
Wo wird er sein im Fall Bush greift in den naechsten Wochen Iran oder Syrien an ?
Dann spielt der warme Winter keine Rolle mehr.
IMO die 80 USD sehen wir in 2007, irgendwie.
Der Gold/Oil Ration ist auf neuen ATH seit September 2005, da war er bei 6.4 nun auf 11.
Da wuerde ich mich als Oilprinz beeilen und schnell Gold kaufen wenn ich das sehe.
Er bewegt sich wahrscheinlich nun auf die 13 zu in 2007.
Angenommen Gold faellt nun auf 570 USD dann ist Oil bei 44 USD.
Also das glaube ich nicht bei Ratio 13.... wenn knapp 80 USD kommen sollten dann ist Gold min. bei 800 USD.
Theoretisch gehoert der auf die 15 und dann waeren es 38 Dollar.
Und wenn wir im Oil ersaufen dann ist der Ratio bei 23 dann sind wir bei der haelfte wo er jetzt ist.
Die Arabs sind doch nicht bloed und verschenken ihr Oil an die Amis damit sie mit ihren SUV billig durch die Gegend fahren.
Opec wird was machen, keine Sorge.
Was solls, das PPT gaukeln uns nur was vor.
Die Chinesen lachen sich jetzt einen Ast und kaufen bald viel von dem gehaemmerten Zeug des PPT mit ihren Fiat Dollars.
Im Grunde genommen schneiden die Amis sich nur ins eigene Fleisch und koennen den Zerfall ihrer Wirtschaft und Waehrung nur kurzfristig aufhalten.( 6 monate vielleicht dann ist der USD/IDX wieder unter 82)
Gruss
XEX
Ben und Hank in einem Tank
Thanks Vanescent
So stelle ich mir das auch vor, jedoch nicht dieses quartal die 720 USD sondern im letzten (720-780 $) sonst kann der FED die Zinsen nicht senken beim in den naechsten drei Monaten. Die sind dabei den Goldilocks Effekt zu fabrizieren und fingen schon letzte Woche damit an.
Der Einstiegspunkt bei EM und Oil ist jetzt ideal, ich habe aber schon mein letztes Hemd fuer Gold/Silber verkauft.
Wer Mut hat der kauft langfristige OS, mit denen bin ich -18% gesamt unten aber das macht nichts da ich gesamt mit dem Depot immer noch 12% im plus liege.(incl.Uran,Oil,Gas, Metalle,Diverses,Solar,OS, physisches Gold, ETF's)
@Salon Helga
Ich habe es nicht geschrieben
Minos
Jeder findet seinen Meister, aufpassen das du nicht zu frueh oder zu spaet verkaufst.
Schablonski
Recht hast, die EZB und die anderen Schafe in der Welt unterstuetzen die Amis und kriechen denen in den Arsch.
Bush und Dollar regiert die Welt, aber nicht mehr lange.
Gruss
Eldo
ZitatAlles anzeigenOriginal von Vanescent
Ja, die eigene Meinung muss man schon selbst erarbeiten.
As market Bulls continue to see these downgrades, they will sell, and a few sellers will soon become a lot of sellers, and that is when Bernanke will step in to reduce the Fed Rate.
So, before they drop the Fed Rate, I think it is the Fed that is pushing down the PM and Oil prices here.
And when the equity market starts to cave in (this quarter I believe), I think the Fed will start dropping rates, which in turn will boost the price of oil and precious metals.
But, you know, there are robust operating performances expected from natural resource companies as long as oil and gold stays at 55 and 600, respectively. As long as central bank money printing continues at the current pace, I expect these price levels to be maintained.
In fact, I believe they will trade within a range of 55 and 65 for oil and 600 and 750 for gold.
Yes, I think there is another bull cycle yet to the PM complex – and sooner than later.
I still feel that spot gold will hit $750 this quarter.
Wenn die Prognose von Bill Cara eintrifft, dass wir noch dieses Quartal
Gruss
Keine Ahnung womit Jim Sinclair sein Geld verdient, von mir bekommt er kein Geld seine Webseite ist ja kostenlos, Minos.
Er liegt so lange richtig bis er falsch liegt wuerde ich sagen.
In drei Wochen sehen wir ja ob er Richtig liegt.
Nicht fair jetzt schon zu behaupten er hat eine Binsenweisheit.
Wer es nicht glaubt der soll an das PPT glauben von mir aus.
Die sind schwer einzuschaetzen, sie koennen ohne einer Panik diesen kleinen Gold/Silber Markt immer wieder beeinflussen und manipulieren so wie sie es gerade brauchen um weiter ""ihre Kunden"" zu halten und neue anzulocken wie wir es wiedermal letzte Woche erlebt haben. 
Dann ist kurzfristig die Meinung der Goldbugs wie Sinclair im Arsch und viele schimpfen dann auf die Gold Propheten.
Der Krug geht so lange zum Brunnen bis er bricht, es sei denn er ist aus Plastik.
Nobody is perfect and always right !
Paper or Gold...up to everybody.
Gruss
Eldo
This year the theme is The Goldilocks Recession. As outlined in the past few months, I think the US will have a mild recession or slowdown in 2007. That premise leads to a lot of other follow-on forecasts. Why the theme? Remember that after finding things were just right, Goldilocks ended running out of the house when the bears came home. And I think the housing bear will finally come home in 2007.
And as I do each year, we start by reviewing last year's forecast. Prior to last year, I had been on kind of a roll in my forecast issues. Never perfect of course, but all in all I have been lucky. I wrote as a preface last year:
"As I look at the coming year, I think it is likely I will not be as successful in my accuracy. There are a lot of potential variables which could cause any number of my predictions to be wrong. But chief of my concerns is Fed policy. When will they stop raising rates? In my mind, I see Ben Bernanke playing Clint Eastwood, doing the Dirty Harry role, looking into the face of the housing market and saying, 'Do you feel lucky punk? Well, do you?' As we will see, this is the wild card upon which the economy will turn."
As it turns out, I did not do all that badly. I wrote at length why I though the Fed would go further hiking rates than the consensus at that time and I was right. However, I thought that raising rates more than most economists thought, plus a slowing economy, would put a damper on the stock market and I was really wrong in calling for a down year in the stock market. I also thought inflation would peak earlier than it has, but that is my bias, as I think that global deflationary forces will eventually be the order of the day.
On the plus side, I got the currency markets right. I was mildly bearish on the dollar as well as seeing a small rise in the Chinese Renminbi. I was bullish on gold and energy. I did not think we would go into a recession in 2006, but that consumer spending would slow down by the end of 2006. I predicted a return of the Muddle Through Economy by the end of the year, which we certainly saw. Growth in the last half of the year will be below the 2% range, which qualifies for Muddle Through. I was positive on global growth and China in particular, even with many calling for a hard landing in China. I also called for a correction in copper, which we surely got this year.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. In golf, you drive for show and you putt for dough. Forecasts are for show. I can guarantee I will get a few things wrong. Maybe a lot of them. Count on it. Its how we invest, and what either confirms or changes those forecasts as time plays out that is the key. If the facts change, so will my views. However, a forecast stays forever in the archives, good or bad. Let's see if we can get a few right this year.
Caveat: If I am wrong about the housing market retreat causing a recession, this forecast is going to be really wrong.
And speaking of the accuracy of forecasts, a note from reader Nathan Lewis called to my attention an interesting historical event. Let's get in the Way Back Machine and go to the 70s. The Dow had topped out in late 1965 - early 1996, and then began an almost 30% bear market drop to the spring of 1970. But wait, from that bottom the Dow took off. In January of 1973, the Dow topped out around 1050, or 5% above its previous high. Writes Nathan:
"On January 1, 1973, Barron's published its famous Roundtable interviews with big-name professional investors. The title was 'Not a Bear Among Them.' (By the way, the Fed Funds Rate, as of the end of December 1972, was -- 5.33%! You can't make this stuff up.)"
Of course, the Dow then proceeded to drop 40%.
And yes, this year's Roundtable had not a bear in the room. Let's see. A 5% rise from previous highs? No bears in the Roundtable? You drive for show. Now, let's get into the forecast.
The Goldilocks Recession
Economic forecasts this year tend to fall into three camps. The very large majority which sees a mild slowdown (not a recession!) with the Fed cutting rates in response and then renewed growth. They look back to the middle 90's where there was indeed a slowdown but not a recession, and the market continued to climb. Goldilocks, indeed.
There are a few which see the roots of a serious recession based upon a collapse in housing prices and a manufacturing slump.
And then there is the lonely middle where I reside, which sees a mild recession (at least by historical standards). It's like the line from the one hit wonder by Stealers Wheel from 1973:
"Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right of me, stuck in the middle with you. And I'm wondering what it is I should do."
Why just a mild recession? Because basically the bulls are right about 70-80% of the economy. Things are doing just fine, thank you. The service sector is rocking along with the latest ISM number for the service sector at 57.1%, which is quite healthy. By some estimates, the service sector is up to 80% of the economy.
There is not a recession in health services. Where is the bear market in government employees? Education? Except for mortgage related services, there is growth in the finance area. Technology? Food services? Every month, we see solid increases in service employment. Unemployment is a comfortably low 4.5%, with many areas of the US showing even lower levels.
The problem is in two areas, housing (which is categorized mostly as service) and manufacturing, especially auto related manufacturing.
These sectors are in recession already. If you are in the home building business, it feels like more than a recession. While some point to a small rise in new home sales, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that it is from aggressive price cutting. Even so, the numbers of new homes for sale just keep rising.
Under normal circumstances the bulls would be right. A slowdown in the housing sector, even a serious one, should not be enough in and of itself to cause a recession. But this is not a normal circumstance.
We have had a real asset bubble in housing. Bubbles do not end without pain.
US home owners have used the rise in the value of their homes as a source for increased consumer spending through Mortgage Equity Withdrawals (Mews), financing increased consumer spending even while savings were negative. MEWs are going to fall even more as home prices do not rise and even (hard to believe!) fall.
The housing industry -construction, finance, sales, MEWs, furniture and renovations - accounted for a significant part of the recent growth there has been in the economy. Without that positive contribution, and indeed what will be a negative detraction in 2007, the economy will indeed be slower.
The Derivative Sleeper
Lenders are going to become more cautious for several reasons. First, as these bad loans come home to roost, there will be losses. Regulators are increasingly mandating higher standards. Finally, investors are going to balk at buying the paper. This latter may be more of a sleeper than most people realize.
Derivatives known as credit default swaps are getting expensive if you want the protection. And there is a hidden problem in the mortgage market. The credit rating agencies have priced some derivatives based on past performance that may in fact not be justified when the future rolls around.
First, before we get into the subject of mortgage derivatives, let me say the sky is not falling. We are not going to see a meltdown of the global financial system. But there are going to be some people who are going to lose more money than they had planned for, because they are taking more risk than they thought there were.
Let's say a large investment bank puts together a pool of subprime mortgages. They break this pool up into various "tranches." The first tranche gets the first money back and gets a justifiable AAA rating. This is about 80% of the pool. Lower tranches take more risk as they are lower down in the repayment stream. They slice and dice these pools down to where some tranches are rated C, somewhere slightly above Enron debt.
About 4% of the pool is rated BBB, or barely investment grade. Now, here is where it gets interesting. Let's read what Shilling has to say about this debt paper.
"...Next the BBB tranche, only 4% of the RMBS [Residential Mortgage Backed Security], is pulled out and combined with BBB tranches from other pools to serve as collateral for a derivative called a Collateralized Debt Obligation. Since this combining of BBB tranches supposedly creates diversification that the rating firms' models indicate will drastically limit delinquencies and defaults, the AAA tranche of the CDO is 75% of the total capital structure and 12% is rated AA. Only 4% is considered BBB. So pools of mortgages that probably would be considered below BBB are miraculously turned into a CDO with 87% of its capital structure rated AAA and AA and only 4% is rated BBB.
"Wow! Talk about a sow's ear being turned into a silk purse! Think of the leverage involved in converting low into high quality debt, even more so when the CDOs are leveraged by their buyers 10 or 20 times! And think of the losses when the 25% fall in house prices we foresee wipes out the whole BBB tranches of the RMBSs by which the entire CDOs are collateralized!
"Conversely, consider the potential huge profits of investors that are essentially buying insurance policies, Credit Default Swaps, that pay out any losses on BBB tranches of the CDOs. But will the sellers of these CDSs be able to make good on their contracts if the house price collapse we foresee materializes?"
Who buys this stuff?
Gary suggests that a lot of it is Asian and European institutions who simply look at the rating by the credit agencies and buy.
It is also sophisticated shops that buy default insurance when they buy the CDOs, as well as high risk funds that have investors who are searching for yield.
Remember Amaranth, the hedge fund that blew up $6 billion of investor money this year? Not a hiccup in the market. We are going to see some of these CDO pools "have issues." Some are simply going to disappear. Investors will lose some of their assets.
And let me say again the sky is not falling. The vast majority of mortgage paper will be just fine, thank you very much. A few investors losing a billion here or there is not a problem for the system as a whole.
What will really be the upshot is that investors are eventually going to shy away from the subprime market without increased protection, scrutiny and returns. The day of the no paperwork subprime mortgage will go away not because of government action, but because the market will simply not take the paper.
Why should we care? 25% of the mortgage market is in the subprime space. If a significant portion of people (which would be way less than the 20% mentioned above) who have bought homes on subprime mortgages are foreclosed on, and there is not financing for a new buyer for that home, it goes on the market and the price drops until it becomes affordable to a sub-prime buyer under the new tighter standards.
Every real estate agent knows that it is first time home buyers who are in large part the fuel for the market, buying from more established households who are "moving on up to the Eastside."
Problems on the Margins
Now, let me be clear here. I am talking about problems on the margin. The vast majority of subprime loans are going to be repaid on time, as are their more conventional cousins. Remember, 80% of the country, and a large portion of the rest of homeowners will be just fine. They may not be happy because their piggy bank doesn't automatically refill with home prices rising 15% a year, but they will adjust.
But recessions are all about "on the margin." Really all a recession is is a period of time when the economy does not grow but falls back, usually just a few percentage points or on the margin. Recessions are typically created when a small portion of the economy has larger than usual problems. In the past, it has classically been manufacturing, but manufacturing is an increasingly smaller part of the US economy. This time it will be the housing market and its cousins that put pressure on the consumer.
The housing problems will spill over into consumer spending, both from much lower MEWs and from the negative wealth effect. Throw in higher mortgage payments for a significant portion of the country and there is less to spend. Instead of robust growth in consumer spending, we will see anemic growth in much of 2007. Note I said growth.
But with inflation at 2%, businesses need 2% growth in consumer spending just to "break even." While we all talk about "real" or after-inflation GDP, we live in a nominal GDP world. Yes, incomes are (finally!) going up, but they have to go up enough to cover the rise in expenses and to cover the loss of MEWs, etc. I don't think they will.
From a sector standpoint, I think it is consumer durables that get hit the hardest in the Goldilocks recession. Consumers will buy the staples. The simple bear necessities will be ok, but larger purchases will be put off.
Timing? Aah, now you ask a much harder question. The inverted yield curve historically suggests no sooner than the second quarter and by at least the end of the third quarter, but what does a yield curve know? That sounds as good a time frame as any.
But won't the Fed start to lower rates? Yes, but I think it unlikely that it will be in time. The Fed has made very clear, and the minutes from the meeting on December 12 underscore their unease, that inflation is still a concern.
They are not going to lower rates until the inflation monster is well and truly dead. Not unless they want to lose their credibility, and they seem to value that.
Today's employment report suggests that a Fed ready to cut rates is further off than the market hopes.
Will the Stock Market (Finally!) Be Ready to Correct in 2007?
If I am forecasting a recession, then that suggests the stock market will drop as well. Maybe not by as much as in past recessions, but it is hard to see how it could shrug off a recession without so much as a real correction of at least 10-20%. In future letters we will look at why a deep (the 40% plus that is typical in recession) stock market bear is not as likely.
It also follows then that the Fed will cut rates and that long term interest rates will go down, thus there is some room for a bond rally. Let me suggest you go to http://www.pimco.com and read Bill Gross's latest missive. He argues that nominal GDP is too low for the current rate structure. (Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt do as well, for different reasons. I will send you their latest letter in Monday's Outside the Box).
Let's jump to Gross's conclusions:
"We at PIMCO look for a Fed Funds rate of 4 1/4% by December of 2007 with 5 and 10 year yields hovering at levels perhaps 25 basis points higher. While that by no means would be reflective of past bond bull markets in terms of magnitude, that is not to imply that 12/31/07 would mark its last gasp. With nominal growth in the U.S. economy dependent on asset appreciation more than ever before, the Fed will lower rates as far as they must in order to produce it. We, like everyone else, will be interested observers along that downward path as they attempt to push the nominal economy back to the magic 5% rate of growth necessary to pay this nation's bills. Is the Fed impotent now? Not as powerful as it once was, but with private financial market participants more interested in other pursuits, it may be the only game in town, at least for 2007, and if it lowers rates sometime within the next six months then the U.S. bond bull market will gain renewed vigor."
Hard to argue with the Bond King. But while he does not say so, if the Fed is having to cut rates that much that would suggest to me that a serious slowdown, if not a recession, is underway.
A recession means that risks premiums should reassert themselves into the high yield bond market, so if you are reaching for yield, I would be very careful. Very careful indeed.
And if the Fed is cutting rates while Europe is raising theirs, as their economy seems to be on a better track, then you would expect the dollar to fall some more.
Nothing precipitous, just another leg down, especially against Asian currencies.
But in a mercantilist world, I don't think that many countries will let their currencies rise all that much against the dollar. So, no large returns without leverage, but that means a lot of risk. If you are going to invest in foreign currencies with any type of leverage, let the professionals do it for you. There is no guarantee, but the leveraged currency markets (futures and other derivatives) is no place for amateurs. And even the pros get spanked regularly.
And if the dollar will fall some more, you would have to think that gold will rise, so I remain bullish on the barbarous relic.
The energy complex? A pause is in order before the next leg up as foreign demand just keeps rising. And just as last year, I would still be wary of long only commodity funds, at least for the first part of the year. That could change.
If we do get a mild recession and a correction in the stock market back to lower than trend valuations, I expect to finally turn selectively bullish on stocks. I am really looking forward to that.
I think the global economy will get a mild hangover from a US recession, but not as much of one as in the 90s. Things are changing.
The risks to my forecast? One very real one is typified by Steve Leuthold, a very seasoned (and generally right on target) analyst, who thinks the recession does not start until 2008. I am often early on these things.
Another real possibility is that there is not even a slowdown, as many think will be the case. It could happen. If inflation does indeed come down faster than it now looks, allowing the Fed to cut rates not as stimulus but because inflation is not a problem, then we could indeed find that soft landing. If that is the case, then take every forecast I made (except energy) and turn it around.
Or the economy could get strong, stoking the inflation fires and force the Fed to raise rates. I don't think so, but credible economists, ones that I respect, see that as a possibility.
That being said, for all the reasons I haven outlined in this letter over the past few months - the inverted yield curve, the leading economic indicators, a housing recession, pressure on the consumer and more - I think we see the Goldilocks Recession in 2007. We will see. Stay tuned.
http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo122206[/URL]
END
Mir kommt so vor das der Fed jetzt schon Rohstoffe/Energie/EM's runter manipuliert damit sie die erste Zinssenkung machen koennen beim naechsten meeting. Das warme Winter bis jetzt passt ihnen auch.
Zwischenzeitlich mehr Truppen in den nahen Osten, da braucht man keine hohen Oilpreise sonst faellt das auf was man vor hat.
Ich glaube auch das selbst nach Maerz bis Oktober der HUI und POG/POS nicht mehr unten den jetztigen Wert fallen wird und wir die allgemeine Fruehjahrkorrektur jetzt schon hatten. Darum werde ich nicht wie geplant etwas verkaufen im Februar/Maerz/April und lasse nun alles laufen und gehe am besten in Urlaub ohne weiter auf den Depotwert zu schauen bis Oktober 2007.
Erstmal wie Adam Hamilton schon gesagt hat kommt wahrscheinlich erstmal eine kurze Deflation und dann eine lange Inflation die spaetestens 2008 anfaengt.
Gruss
Eldo
Posted On: Friday, January 05, 2007, 5:23:00 PM EST
Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair
Gold, Silver and the US Dollar:
I see no reason to be concerned about my opinion expressed regarding the period of January 15th to the 29th.
I firmly believe 2007 and 2008 belong to us. What we are experiencing today is mindless black boxes falling all over each other with the paper gold traders in the middle each playing musical chairs with their gold positions.
Black boxes cannot recognize the difference between a thin market and a major trading market. The gold market is the smallest of all major trading items.
Hedge funds and black boxes are the real bulls in a China shop. There is no changing this so welcome to the volatility of the gold market that will only increase over time.
This is a perfect lesson is fighting the emotions of Fear and Greed. You must reverse them. When you feel fear, have confidence. When you are scared to death have confidence. I am here for you if you need help.
This is a quickly passing cloud and part of the common action you will experience as gold climbs to $1650.
...Nun wenn es nicht so kommt dann verliert er seinen Ruf und kann seine Webseite zusperren.
Profit Potential from The "War" on Tangible Assets
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1168032083.php
Deepcaster, and a select few others, have noted that the economy is moving into a phase of an apparent deflation.
The hallmark of this apparent deflation has been, and is, (and, Deepcaster forecasts, for a few months will increasingly be) the takedown in price (again) of precious metals and of strategic tangible assets in general and, in particular, of crude oil.
Deepcaster, and a select few others, make the case that much of this apparent deflation is likely "engineered" by a Fed and other Central Banker-led Cartel in whose interest it is to reduce the attractiveness of tangible assets in order to boost the attractiveness of their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies.
Indeed, maintaining the legitimacy of their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies is so important to the Central Bankers that they seem continually to conduct an intense campaign against their main "Competitors." Indeed, this campaign is so intense that it can justifiably be called a "War" [And of course there appears to be a private profit motive for doing so - - The U.S. Federal Reserve is neither a Federal nor a U.S. entity. It is a Cartel of private banks, some of which are non-U.S. owned and based.]
The "Competitors" are, of course, the tangible assets, gold and silver specifically (because gold and silver are historically the only "real" money - - all important fiat currency regimes have historically failed eventually), and the strategic commodities, including especially crude oil. From The Cartel's perspective this "War" requires periodic attacks on the prices of precious metals and other strategic tangible assets, so that these tangible assets will not come to be seen as alternative stores of, and measures of, value.
Deepcaster, and a select few others, including, first and foremost, the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (GATA), have collected substantial evidence that (otherwise inexplicable) price drops are actually price takedowns engineered by the Central Banker-led Cartel. Otherwise (just to consider one example) how can one possibly explain periodic huge price drops in silver, when its demand over supply deficit has been steadily increasing for years?
Others will claim this is apparent deflation is merely a natural pullback in what is (and Deepcaster agrees) a long-term, precious metals and strategic commodities (i.e. tangible assets) Bull Run.
But it is critical to note that from Deepcaster's perspective this is an "apparent" (and Cartel engineered) deflation because, according to the indicators that we respect (and in particular those of shadowstats.com), "real" inflation is now running at about 9% per year. Moreover OTC Derivatives expansion is skyrocketing as Deepcaster noted in its recent Alert entitled "Derivatives Deluge Multiplies Real Risks And Potential Profits." The evidence increasingly indicates that The Cartel uses massive derivatives positions to make "market" prices. See Deepcaster’s “Profiting From the Cartel’s Interventional Tactics” for more details.
Knowing that Tangible Assets, and particularly gold, silver, and crude oil, are the prime targets for attacks - - repeated attacks so intense that they may justifiably be called a “War” on Tangible Assets - - gives investors and traders a significant advantage.
Knowing The Tactics that The Cartel employs gives investors and traders a great advantage. Deepcaster, for example, employed the tactics described in its recent “Profiting From The Cartel’s Interventional Tactics” to correctly forecast on December 15, 2006 (when February crude closed at about $64/barrel) that “crude oil will be taken down substantially soon.” And so it was that crude oil was taken down to nearly $55/barrel by January 4, 2007. And so it was that on January 4, 2007, Deepcaster was able to employ the same tactical knowledge to forecast the price future for crude.
BUT The Great Consolation (when suffering a takedown) for hard assets investors, and especially for hard money (i.e. gold and silver) partisans - - and count Deepcaster among these - - is that:
1. Knowing the Cartel’s Interventional Tactics can allow investors to go long near Cartel-engineered bottoms, and
2. This knowledge can, particularly in the case of gold and silver, allow investors to buy the ultimate store and measure of value - - physical gold and silver coins and bullion at Cartel-engineered bottoms - -
Exactly what the Colored-Paper-Printers of The Cartel do NOT want investors to do.
Deepcaster
January 5, 2007
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Also kauft bloss nicht !! :D...nach ""neuesten Stand"" ist das Mist.
Hoerte gerade Harald Seigel:
http://www.hesradio.com/radioshows.html
Er sagt das durch das warme Wetter und El Nino im Nordosten von Amerika sogar die Obstbaeume bluehen und Oil deshalb auf 55 Dollar ist. Sollte sich das Wetter ploetzlich drehen kann das eine Katastrophe geben.
Wer weiss vielleicht kommt der Winter mit Verspaetung wie letztes Jahr ?
Neben den neuen 167.000 Jobs ist das auch ein Grund warum alles gefallen ist. Der Dollaranstieg von 82.5 auf 84.5 alleine war es nicht.
Tiefer sollte es mit Oil aber nicht gehen da es Opec nicht zulassen wird und die Produktion drosseln wird.
Jim Sinclair und Jim Rogers sind sehr bullisch in 2007.
Jim Rogers kauft in der Reihenfolge Silber- Palladium- Gold.
Sehr starke Unterstuetzung ist bei 11.80 USD und 580 USD wo man agressiv kaufen sollte .... ""falls es soweit runter geht".
Seine konservative Vorhersage ist das Gold auf 750-780 USD steigen wird und Silber auf 17.50 - 18 USD in 2007.
D.h das der Gold Silber Ratio von 50 auf die 43 gehen kann.
Er meint wenn man 20% Cash hat und 80% finanzieren laesst dann sollte man bald Silber kaufen.
Angeblich bei einem Anstieg von drei Dollar hat man sein Geld zurueck.
Ich wuensche Euch ein schoenes Wochenende, mal schaun wie es naechste Woche weiter geht.
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Pundits, Pundits Everywhere, but Not a Drop of Sense:
By: Charleston Voice
...Sometimes you just can't get a lifejacket. Through your captain's cabin porthole you see the lifeboats being lowered over the side on their davits. Just as you ordered. That's just a precaution for others. But, you sit tight in your stateroom, comforted in the belief that you have steered your ship safely through hazardous shoals that in a collision would send your ship to Davey Jone's locker quicker than a Fed rate cut in a Panic. All the navigational buoys are lined up for safe passage. A new dawn for the Gold Bull is rising just ahead. You can even see its brightening halo. You've made this same passage dozens of times.
http://news.silverseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1168016987.php
Gruss
Eldo
Angeblich 17.000 mehr Arbeitsstellen geschaffen und schon faellt der Goldpreis um 40 Dollar....hmmm sind das die in Irak. ?
Ich habe irgendwo gelesen das in einer Woche eine million Leute den Job wechseln in den USA.
Welche Jobs sind das ueberhaupt ?..low paid oder high paid jobs ?
Mit solchen Daten/Jobs ist ja wieder alles in Ordnung, es kann jetzt nur mehr aufwaerts gehen in USA.
Anscheinend wenn mehr arbeiten kauft man weniger Gold, das Defizit ist immer noch 1500 tonnen im Jahr.
Angeblich hedged Newmont habe ich irgendwo gelesen , wenn das so ist haue ich die raus da sie eh nicht performen diese langweilige Aktie.
Hier noch ein kurzes Video der zu denken gibt.
...Thanks Saddam, you did the job for us for 40 years:
Greift er jetzt nach dem Bier oder etwa die Droppy
Ich glaube er nimmt eher das Bier....
Edel, Tschonko
FCO - New Jersey - Sterling - HL- CDE sind im Depot.
N J und Sterling nun unten mit -18%, der rest ist im gruenen Bereich.
""Danke auch, der Bondbericht ist sehr lesenswert.""
Es kommt wirklich Bewegung in Idaho auf."....falls er nicht besoffen war.
Der kann was reinschuetten das glaubt ihr gar nicht, dann faselt er oft so etwas.
In Wallace kannst besoffen durch die Gegend fahren, da haelt dich keiner auf.
Dort ist ein anderes Amerika das kann ich Euch sagen.
Ich hatte einen riesen Gaudi mit den Silberbugs im Valley.
Die planen das meiste vom Pub aus.
Keine Ahnung wer das dann fuer ihn abtippt.
IMO ihr habt zu viele Gluecksritter Minen dort, die Story hoert sich immer gut an.
Bis dort eine Unze rauskommt koennt ihr alte Maenner sein.
Good luck anyway
Cheers
Eldo
