Oil Prices Climb After Weekly U.S. Government Data Shows Increase in Demand
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Crude-oil futures rose slightly Thursday, gaining strength from a rally in gasoline futures after weekly U.S. government data showed rising demand.
The weekly report from the Energy Department's statistical division also showed rising oil and gas inventories, and increased output from the nation's refineries.
Hence, you best wait for the initial market reaction to a stronger $USD to give you the buying opportunity, and then you buy !"
Also, Augen auf den USD und dann auf Gold. 
Das letzte ""fabrizierte"" Aufbeugen vor dem 80 USD/IDX IMO.
Wenigstens steigen heute schon die Gaspreise um 3.5%
Gold, traditionally regarded as a hedge against inflation, would become a less attractive investment if the Fed is raises interest rates to curb inflation.... 
....kurzfristig vielleicht !!
At those support levels, market players who have not been in the gold market thus far will see that as a buying opportunity. ''What we are seeing is a nice price correction due to the Fed's vigilance on inflation,'' Person said.
Also adding to the pullback in precious metals were market perceptions of some easing in U.S.-Iran tensions :D, after the United States said Wednesday it would join multilateral talks if Iran suspends its nuclear enrichment program, according to analysts at Barclays.
Iran bleibt gelassen und lassen sich nicht so schnell erpressen.
Die meisten Muslims haben die Schnauze voll von den Amis.
Der Konflikt wird noch groesser als er ist. IMO
Ich kann mich noch erinnern als bei dem Referendum in Frankreich und danach die Unruhen der Euro in Frage stand und nun ist er nun wieder gefragt.
... schnelle Wunder ueber Nacht, wie sieht spaeter der Export und Wirtschaft aus in D ??.
Zinserhoehungen werden jetzt oefters kommen, erst Recht in Amerika um den Dollar zu stuetzen und viele in die Zins/Schuldenfalle zu jagen.
Wie es weiter geht lehrt die Geschichte.
Gnight
XEX
Saccard, ist das etwa was du denkst ??
Once the current correction in Gold Stocks is over (Oct / Nov '06) I believe Gold will detach from the Stock Market and begin to behave in a way fitting for the King of metals. Gold will see its BIG moves when FEAR really sets in!
At the beginning stage of this collapse the Dollar may rise as all asset classes deflate. Average into Non-US Miners now.
When War gets underway and FEAR takes over, get out of the Dollar in Favour of Gold. US Miners will benefit here.
There's one HUGE benefit to the current correlation between Gold Stocks and the Stock market. Both are moving in the same direction. This is not Historically so. Gold Stocks usually move opposite to the Stock Market.
Buy Gold Stocks and Buy Puts on the Dow (I like Jan 07 110 Puts Stock Code: ZAWMF.X)
The BENEFITS:
If the Stock Market and the Gold Stocks continue moving downward together, the Position will be hedged to an extent against downside loss (Puts will gain in value).
If Gold Stocks decouple and head upwards when the Stock Market falls, the position will dor VERY WELL. You'll make on Gold Stocks and on the Dow Puts. DOUBLE WHAMMY! This is my anticipated scenario.
If the market goes nowhere you lose the premium paid for the Puts. I for one don't expect the Markets to Stand Still over the next 1 to 2 years!
Happy Trading.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
..so far so good
To answer this I will defer to the tireless writings of Richard Russell. Richard says that Bear Markets end in exhaustion and at incredibly LOW Prices. People don't want to hear about Stocks or the Stock Market. The prevailing mood is BLACK!
Secular Bear Markets come in 3 Waves. The first he believes took place in 2000 - 2002. Valuations never got down to anything resembling BARGAINS. Long before despair set in, the World was floating Higher on the Back of Generational Low interest rates and Massive Liquidity (not lost on the Price of Gold). The Black Mood was never allowed to Fester and People were not turned off stocks for very long.
It's therefore unlikely according to Mr Russell (whom I respect greatly) that the Secular Bear Market ended in 2002. Therefore what we are witnessing now may be the Bear Market Strikes Back Episode II.
Ok Greg, so we're going lower. How Low?
I calculate Downside targets using the same methodology as Upside targets. To recap, I take the % magnitude of the previous Up or Down Wave. I multiply by the Golden Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 to give me the magnitude of the next Wave. I then add or subtract that from the previous peak or trough.
Therefore, the last Down Wave in the Dow went from 11500 to 7100. A fall of 4,400 points or 38%. Applying the Golden Fib gives me 24% (38% x 0.618). Now reduce the previous low of 7100 by 24% to get 5400 (rounded). Lastly apply a 10% margin of error on each side.
I BELIEVE THIS NEXT WAVE WILL TAKE THE DOW DOWN TO THE 5000 - 6000 AREA!
Gulp!
How long you ask?
I'd say it will roughly match the length of the previous BEAR Market Wave -2 years.
Nur keine Hektik, immer Geduld und eigenes Gefuehl wann es Zeit zum verkaufen oder kaufen ist hoert sich gut an.
Jetzt wird es so langsam wieder interessant, nachzukaufen 
Der genaue Zeitpunkt ist wie ein vierer im Lotto.
XEX
@mesodor
""Beim Gold sehen wir momentan eine ganz normale und seit langem überfällige Korrektur einer zuvor hoffnungslos überkauften Situation. """"
Gold wird am papier verkauft im grossen Stil, die Frage wie lange der ""Ausverkauf"" noch dauert ist schwer zu beantworten.
Eine Fear Factor Tactic was die Cabals von GS /JPM mit den Leuten machen.
Jetzt haben sie trillionen USD von ""unsecured derivatives"".
Wenn ich mir anschaue wie die Rohstoffe und Metalle fallen haben wir jetzt schon eine ""Weltrezession"" und der Bedarf an Rohstoffen ist ""ploetzlich"" weg.
Ok, das Wirtschaftswachstum in China ist auch vorbei.
Bullshit !!!
Follow the sheeps..... :D..and drop your Gold.
Genau Edel, so sollte man das sehen.
Und dabei ruhig bleiben,falls er kann.
Auratico ;)...... so siehts leider aus.
ist es doch vielmehr die Frage, ob wir hier auf einen gewaltigen Gesamtcrash zusteuern oder nicht.
Auf der Metalexchange sind fast keine buyer mehr da, soweit sind wir schon,..... The final days of reckoning in progress.
Die Frage wird bald beantwortet.
Gruss
Eldo
@ Saccard
Kurzfristig kannst damit rechthaben, langfristig aber nicht da der USD irgendwann wieder gewaltig faellt.
Wohin damit, in den Euro oder T-Bonds ?
Ich investiere langfristig egal ob nun momentan kurzfristige Bonds?Anleihen etc. die bessere Investitionen sind .
Jetzt reden sie den Leuten ein, rettet Euch in den USD und T-Bonds.
Mich aber nicht !
Jeden das seine,mir das meiste !
Fuer mich ist das ganze in zwei Wochen so oder so erledigt.
Irgendwann ist der Crash auch vorbei, wichtig ist das man bis dort hin noch Luft hat.
Ich bin erstaunt wie das PPT das schafft und die Leute umleitet.
Ich schmeiss mein Gold gleich weg !
Gruss
Eldo
Shi.. Comex trading has stopped by Copper, it feel drasticly. 
Jetzt haun sie voll rein, fasten your seatbelts!.
Saccard, I think you smile now. ![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
Cheers,the beat goes on tonight. 
XEX
Bema Signs Agreement with AngloGold Ashanti for Colombia Exploration Properties
Thursday June 1, 9:15 am ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jun 1, 2006 --
Bema Gold Corporation (TSX:BGO.TO - News)(AMEX:BGO - News)(AIM: BAU) is pleased to announce the signing of a heads of agreement ("HOA") with AngloGold Ashanti ("AGA"), to form a New Company ("Newco") to jointly explore mineral opportunities within a 120,000 square kilometre area of northern Colombia. Under the HOA, Newco shall have the right to earn a 51% interest in any property which AGA chooses to farm out within the area of interest, by executing a minimum of 3000 metres of exploration drilling and matching prior AGA exploration expenditures. As part of the initial commitment, AGA has agreed to provide a minimum of eight exploration properties to the venture, and Bema will provide or arrange a minimum US$5 million in exploration funding. The HOA gives AGA a one time right upon a 51% interest being earned in a project by Newco to participate at a 51% interest by deciding to become a contributing partner (Newco's interest would flip to a 49% interest); to participate at a 65% interest by funding completion of a feasibility study; and to participate at a 49% interest and dilute through an industry standard dilution formula. If AGA elects not to participate in a project, and Newco decides to joint venture the project, then Bema will have the first right to reach agreement on a joint venture.
ADVERTISEMENT
The HOA contemplates that within two years Newco will be listed on a recognized stock exchange at which time AGA will own 20% of Newco. It is intended that Bema will own approximately 20% of Newco. Bema and AGA are currently drafting a definitive agreement, the details of which shall be forthcoming.
Five projects have been selected to date for Newco. Field work consisting of geological mapping and sampling has commenced on two of these; La Mina and El Pino, located in the gold-rich province of Antioquia. La Mina is a gold-copper porphyry system, where intense stockworking in a potassically altered intrusive has been mapped over a 200 by 300 metre area. Channel sampling by AGA within this area included results containing up to 135 metres of 0.89 grams per tonne (g/t) gold and 0.21% copper. Outcrop exposure is limited in the system, but two additional exposures of potassically altered porphyry within a 1.5 kilometre radius indicate the potential for a large mineralized system. A diamond drill program consisting of 1500 metres in 6 holes to test subsurface grade continuity will commence in July.
At El Pino, epithermal gold mineralization occurs within poorly exposed silicified breccias and metasediments over a six kilometre long structural trend. A 750 by 50 metre zone within this trend hosts consistently anomalous gold and silver values, up to a maximum of 43.5 g/t gold and 344 g/t silver in a 0.5 metre by 0.5 metre panel sample. Composite grab samples from three levels of an underground prospect in this zone average 4.6 g/t, 5.7 g/t and 6.4 g/t Au from breccia exposures at least 18 metres wide. Bema believes El Pino has the potential to host multi-gram gold plus silver mineralization over a significant area.
Colombia's impressive gold endowment and high exploration potential is widely recognized, with historic production believed to exceed 120 million ounces. Recent government-led improvements in security, infrastructure, and mining law reform are providing an ever improving environment for foreign investment in mineral exploration and development. Bema is pleased to be entering Colombia through this joint venture with AGA and believes it fits well with our extensive history of early entry into high-potential, emerging exploration environments. AGA has been actively exploring in Colombia since 1999 and has a strong commitment to exploring and developing Colombian mineral resources in an environmentally and socially responsible way. This experience coupled with their exploration infrastructure will provide a distinct advantage to Bema and assure that the joint venture has access to top quality exploration opportunities, now and into the future.
On Behalf Of Bema Gold Corporation
Clive Johnson, Chairman, CEO, President
Mahendra a week ago:
CURRENCIES
Last week the dollar index gave a sign which one can take as a sure bet. The dollar index will enter into a medium term bull market and I feel that it is a lifetime opportunity to sell all currencies at this stage. Look at the South African Rand: it went down almost 10 percent in the last two weeks. The same will happen with the Canadian and Australian dollars as well as other currencies.
The dollar will rise sharply and surpass its recent fall.
This week is still a great opportunity to accumulate the dollar and sell other currencies. Don’t be scared even if US Dollar falls sharply one of the days during this week. It is entering into a historic quick rising in a short period.
....und es juckt nichtmal eine Avocet bis jetzt:
Die PM Aktien sind mehr oder weniger schon ausgeblutet IMO.
Wie auch immer ich kann keinen PoG unter 600 USD sehen und hoffe die 320 beim HUI halten.
Im schlimmsten Fall eben 280 ,dann muss es aber wirklich brutal zugehen um die Aktien so zu pruegeln.
Heute nachdem der PoG nun unter 630 gelandet ist bin ich gespannt wie die PM Aktien reagieren.
Ich war gestern ueberrascht das trotz den neuen Sturz die Aktien gehalten haben.
Heute erneuter Test wie preiswert der Markt die PM Aktien nun beurteilt.
Good luck and hold on !
--------------------------------------------------
Hier noch etwas fuer Saccard :
World Markets About To Crash Together?
There are two major forces that are propelling gold upward:
One is fear of financial market collapses that are appearing like burned popcorn everywhere. The other is an imminent energy war in the Middle East. Iran is the pretext. It does not help that their leader is a maniacal Iranian mystic/politician that believes he is ushering in the end of 'history' - his own words.
Christopher Laird:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird053106.html
GOLD
Thus far the rise in Gold has been an almost perfect Elliott Wave I, which included an extended fifth wave. What that means to is "Extended 5th Waves are always doubly retraced" In plain English that means the highs will always be retested, either as part of a longer sides ways correction or as Wave I (3) of the next advance to new highs. The Maximum downside target of this normal Wave (2) correction, which will mark the end of Wave (2) and the Launch of Wave (3) is $578 to $610.
Your finally are in the CORRECTION that you have all be hoping for, so what are you waiting for:
Continue to ACCUMULATE on weakness. We are exactly on the track that I have been writing about for the last three years.
Let me remind you of one very important fact that I have continued to emphasize and that is that the Gold Stocks always lead Bullion, both on the way up as well as on the way down. This time is no exception. The Stocks topped out before Bullion did and they will bottom out before bullion does as well.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin053006.html
Here's what you need to do:
Plan your response to the Market in a Military Fashion. Plan for the next 2-3 years out.
The average Gold or Silver stock is now roughly 30% below its peak of early May '06. You're Hurting - we're all hurting.
[U]But the ironic thing is its now time to BUY not SELL. [U]
I calculate 280 on the HUI to be the rock
The bottom of this Correction!
That's only 10% lower than Wednesdays close. STEP UP AND BEGIN BUYING! But be smart, average into the market over the next 3 to 4 months.[
Once the current correction in Gold Stocks is over (Oct / Nov '06) I believe Gold will detach from the Stock Market and begin to behave in a way fitting for the King of metals. Gold will see its BIG moves when FEAR really sets in!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/silberman053106.html
ZitatOriginal von Saccard
Die Goldbullen sollten die Chance nutzen und alle Basismetallwerte und Silberwerte rausschmeißen.
AEM, SLW, NG, GRS, MFN, FCX, NGX, AUY sind z.B. solche Werte. Bei GRS und MFN kann es aufgrund der niedrigen Bewertung und der niedrigen Kosten wohl zu positiven Überraschungen kommen (evtl. auch Übernahmen), also dort vorsichtig sein mit Verkäufen.
In einer zweiten Welle würde ich dann in ein/zwei Monaten die gehedgten Werte komplett gegen ungehegte tauschen.
Gruß
S.
Saccard du hast eh nichts mehr zum verkaufen.
Also ich bin doch nicht bescheuert und verkaufe nun was ich vor ein paar Tagen gekauft habe, ich sitze das aus und kann nur eines sagen zu deiner Panikmache geehrter Saccard :
Yes, $8,000 an Ounce
An Interview with James Turk, Founder of Goldmoney.com
By Sandra Ward
Barron's
Monday, May 29, 2006
Not only did he pinpoint the beginning of the current bull market in
gold in these pages in September 2002, but he has been spot-on in
continuing to assess the direction of the metal and the drivers
behind its move. James Turk, a longtime authority on gold and other
precious metals, is the founder of Goldmoney.com, a company that
enables online cross-border commercial transactions using gold as a
currency. He is also a co-author of "The Coming Collapse of the
Dollar," published in 2004 by Doubleday. As you might surmise from
the title of the book, Turk sees plenty of room for gold to climb
higher. Here's a glimpse into his thinking.
Barron's: You've been right on the price of gold all the way up.
Turk: The theme has been correct. There are problems with the
dollar, and that's being reflected in a higher gold price. So, truth
be told, it's not that gold is going higher -- it's that the dollar
is going lower. An ounce of gold still purchases as much crude oil,
essentially as it did 50 years ago, but that can't be said about
dollars.
Barron's: One of your gold indicators, the "fear index," is based on
M-3 numbers, but the government has stopped reporting M-3.
Turk: Yes, it's really unfortunate. They said the motivation for
doing that was to save the time of reporting it, and they're also
going to save a million dollars in the cost of compiling that data.
I find it quite shocking they would stop reporting M-3, because it
is the most important component of money, revealing the total
quantity of dollars in circulation. My guess is they want to try to
hide the amount of inflation that's in the pipeline. When they
stopped reporting M-3, it was growing at well over 8% per year, and
the annual growth trends were increasing. So I think it was all part
of this policy to control inflationary expectations. But it is a
major misstep because it will end up heightening people's concerns
about the dollar. And that's going to make gold go up.
Barron's: You thought we would have had a dollar crisis by now.
Turk: Yes, but one could argue we have a dollar crisis. If you look
at where the dollar has come in the past few years in terms of loss
of purchasing power, we haven't reached a panic point yet. But I
still fear we are going to see a panic in the dollar at some point
in the future.
Barron's: Let's talk about the pressures on the dollar.
Turk: They are taking on a bit more urgency. One of the things I
picked up on a recent trip outside the States was a much greater
level of concern about the prospects for the dollar than had
previously been the case.
Barron's: Concerns among whom?
Turk: Among sophisticated investors -- wealthy individuals as well
as some money managers. That's been linked to two specific events.
First, Chinese National Offshore Oil Co., or Cnooc, was not
permitted to purchase Unocal. Most people at the time shrugged it
off as just a one-off event. But when the Dubai Ports deal was
blocked, that really changed people's perceptions, because it made
clear holders of dollars outside the United States are not going to
be permitted to exchange those dollars for things of tangible value.
There's an increasing desire to convert dollars into, say,
commodities, which dollars can still buy. The boom in commodities to
a large extent is the result of people exiting dollars. People are
looking for alternatives to the U.S. dollar, and the dollar's role
as the world's reserve currency is being questioned seriously now.
The Russian finance minister raised the issue in the recent G-7
meetings. This questioning is a critical development. Financing the
growing federal budget deficit and trade deficit requires that a
large amount of dollars be created. These dollars are being created
as demand for the dollar is declining.
Turk: The gold standard's greatest attribute was forcing discipline
on the creation of national currencies.
Barron's: How do you measure that?
Turk: You can't really measure it. We talk about M-3, which is the
supply of dollars, but we don't really focus on the demand for
dollars. There is an above-ground stock of gold and an above-ground
stock of dollars, and my fear index measures the relative demand
between the two. The fear index is rising, indicating demand for
dollars is declining. But, anecdotally, the central banks are
diversifying out of the dollar, as are individuals and corporations.
So we know demand for the dollar is falling. The monetary system is
broken.
Barron's: What's broken about it?
Turk: There's no discipline on U.S. dollar creation. The gold
standard's greatest attribute was forcing discipline on the creation
of national currencies; if too much national currency was being
created, gold would flow from one country to another and eliminate
and minimize the impact of the boom- and-bust cycles. The huge trade
imbalances we are seeing now between China and the U.S., and the
U.S. and other countries, never could have existed under the gold
standard. Ultimately, I see capital controls coming to the U.S. as a
way for the government to attempt to deal with these huge trade and
international capital-flow imbalances. Instead of limiting the
amount of dollars in circulation and trying to get us back to some
kind of a disciplined basis, we are probably going to move toward
capital controls as the next step.
Barron's: Any sign of that trend?
Turk: Yes, the fact that the Dubai and Unocal deals were rejected.
Protectionism and capital controls are very closely related.
Barron's: Do you have a new gold-price target?
Turk: It is going much higher, and the $8,000 [per ounce] I
mentioned a couple of years ago is probably as good a target as any.
Barron's: Some reports say $2,000 is reasonable.
Turk: I don't rule that out as a near-term spike. There are two
aspects to what's driving the gold price: First, there is strong
physical demand around the world. When gold crossed the $500-an-
ounce level, people started buying gold in anticipation of monetary
problems. Second, the physical demand for gold is causing a huge
problem for the gold shorts. There has been a large gold carry trade
in place. It is very possible gold could have a massive spike in the
next six to 12 months to as high as $2,000, driven by these factors.
Barron's: Are there any signs of this trouble yet?
Turk: Central banks loaned a lot of gold from their reserves. It was
borrowed by various banks and others for the carry trade. You borrow
gold at very low interest rates and sell it at the spot price. Then
you invest the proceeds in higher-yielding dollars and other
currencies. As long as the gold price doesn't rise, you are going to
make a lot of money on the spread. But in a rising gold-price
environment, you are stuck. You have to buy that gold back or suffer
the consequences of ultimately having to deliver the gold at a much
higher price than what you are earning from your assets. The bullion
banks and others who borrowed it are short. What's happening in gold
is probably even worse in silver, in the sense that the short
position in silver looks even bigger than gold's. Recently, silver
has risen more rapidly than gold.
Barron's: Can this go on indefinitely?
Turk: A lot of people got out of the gold market, expecting a
correction, as often occurs at the beginning of major bull markets.
In December, when gold went over $500 an ounce, I said gold is never
going back below $500, ever. Now we have to think about the
possibility that gold is never going to go back below $600, ever. It
is too cheap and undervalued. I like to draw comparisons to the
1970s when gold went through $50 and never looked back. After Nixon
closed the gold window in August 1971, gold went from $40 to $120 an
ounce in the next two years. Adjusting for inflation, you could
argue $500 today is like $42 in 1971. Multiply $120 by 11 times in
order to get the inflation-adjusted dollar equivalent, and you get a
potential target of more than $1,300 an ounce.
Barron's: What's the relationship between the yield curve and gold?
Turk: The most important thing that affects gold in terms of
interest rates is real interest rates, or rates adjusted for
inflation. I measure this as the fed-funds rate less the CPI
[consumer-price index]. Even though interest rates have risen, real
interest rates remain close to zero, or are negative. John Williams,
an economist, has an interesting Website called Shadowstats.com. He
looks at the CPI and what level it would be at were it not for all
the adjustments in the past 30 years. If the CPI were still
calculated today as it was in the 1970s, the inflation rate would be
about 8%. Depending on how you measure inflation, real interest
rates are no better than zero and probably are negative. That is
very inflationary. What will be negative for gold is when real
interest rates go to 4% or 5%. It took Paul Volcker bringing real
interest rates up to 6%, 7%, 8% in a short period of time before the
market was convinced he was going to save the dollar and it was time
to move out of tangible assets into financial assets.
Barron's: Isn't the government in a bit of a box?
Turk: It is trying to fund the federal budget deficits without
destroying the dollar, and trying to raise interest rates to save
the dollar without destroying the economy. I don't think they can do
it. The dollar will continue to lose purchasing power.
Barron's: Are you recommending any gold stocks?
Turk: Gold stocks are still relatively cheap. In the past several
months, even as the gold price has gone up, the stocks have been
reluctantly following rather than leading, which is contrary to what
normally happens. If I'm correct that the price of gold eventually
goes to four digits, the earnings of gold companies will be
significantly higher. As a consequence, gold stocks are still cheap.
Barron's: What do you say when people wonder if your views are self-
serving because your company, GoldMoney.com, promotes gold as a
currency for transactions?
Turk: My views on the markets are completely separate from my
company. I started the company anticipating that more people would
turn to gold, and I recognized the opportunity from a commercial as
well as an investment point of view.
Barron's: For gold investors, is there much difference between
Bernanke and Greenspan?
Turk: Yes. Bernanke is very different. Greenspan clearly understood
gold, and in his Fed testimony he used to talk about
the "automaticity" of the gold standard. If you go back to
Greenspan's testimonies, you will see him using that word from time
to time. Bernanke doesn't have the deep understanding that Greenspan
had about gold and perhaps about markets in general. Greenspan came
up from the business world, Bernanke came up through academics. That
makes a difference in terms of one's outlook and levels of
experiences.
Barron's: What has Bernanke said or not said that gives you the
sense that he is not fully appreciative of gold?
Turk: It is a combination of what he has written in the past and
what he said prior to his appointment as Fed chairman. He has been
pretty cautious. He has only been chairman for about four months,
but he seems to be focused on the deflation in the 1930s, and this
is quite alarming. What we don't need today is a greater supply of
dollars. What we need is a greater demand for dollars. The way you
improve demand for dollars is to take those steps that will give
people confidence in the dollar and its purchasing power for a long
period of time.
Barron's: Such as?
Turk: Raising interest rates, just as Volcker did, at a pace that is
not measured, but rapid.
Barron's: Wouldn't that come with a lot of pain?
Turk: When you take away the punch bowl, you are left with the
hangover. We have to recognize we've far exceeded our ability to
live at the level at which this country has been living for the past
couple of decades. There is going to be some pain and adjustment.
But if the dollar's purchasing power is destroyed, as a consequence
of not taking strong action the pain is going to be much greater.
Barron's: In what sense?
Turk: When Volcker raised interest rates, we had a severe recession,
but eventually the adjustments led to a period of economic growth,
and we continued to create new wealth from economic activity. When
you create too many dollars in an environment where the demand for
the dollar is declining, it could lead to a situation similar to
Argentina a few years ago or to one that resembles Weimar Germany --
one deflationary and one inflationary. In Argentina, the supply of
pesos declined by one-third from peak to trough, but the purchasing
power of the peso lost 50%. In Germany, demand for the Reichsmark
was falling and the central bank tried to offset that by putting
more Reichsmarks into circulation. Both situations ended badly, and
the net result was severe economic dislocations.
* * *
Gold and Black Gold
Throughout the past 60 years, the price of crude oil in grams of
gold has remained essentially unchanged. The dollar price of crude
has broken out of a 30-year range, suggesting either that oil is
relatively overvalued or that gold is extremely undervalued. In
Turk's view, gold is undervalued and oil is properly valued. As oil
goes higher in dollar terms, he argues, so will gold.
Turk: The problem is the dollar is the world's reserve currency.
What happens when you have a flight from the world's reserve
currency? This is the point of my book, "The Coming Collapse of the
Dollar." The flight from the dollar is going to accelerate. The
dollar has only 5% of the purchasing power it did maybe 50 years
ago.
Barron's: What is the impact of oil on all this?
Turk: Oil is interesting because you have two dynamics. The oil
producers seemingly are less and less willing to take dollars,
because dollars are being depreciated.
Barron's: Where is the evidence of that?
Turk: The Russians are questioning the dollar's role as the reserve
currency. And in Venezuela, when President Hugo Chavez takes a swipe
at the U.S., he is taking a swipe at our ability to create dollars
out of thin air. And as Charles de Gaulle used to say, "deficits
without tears." That's what he finds unacceptable.
Barron's: And the other dynamic?
Turk: The second dynamic is Matt Simmon's argument that we are
running out of easy-to-produce light, sweet crude. If the supply of
easily refinable crude oil is diminishing, all the more reason for
the price of crude oil to rise. So, we have a weakening dollar and a
declining supply of the best-quality crude.
Barron's: And that translates into. ...?
Turk: $100-a-barrel crude oil before too long.
Barron's: And in terms of gold?
Turk: There is a close historical relationship between crude oil and
gold. Normally it takes about 2.2 grams of gold to buy one barrel of
crude oil. Now it takes about 3.4 grams to purchase one barrel of
crude oil. Either oil is relatively overvalued or gold is very
undervalued. My view is gold is undervalued and that oil is properly
valued. So as oil goes higher in dollar terms, gold is going to
continue to go higher, as well.
Barron's: Are exchange-traded funds a positive for gold or a
complicating factor?
Turk: They are positive in the sense that people are looking at gold
and coming up with new products. But I do not recommend people buy
the ETF [streetTracks Gold Shares, or GLD]. If you want to speculate
on the gold price, the ETF is one way to do that. Futures contracts
are another way. But owning the physical metal in your own name is
something entirely different. There are too many parties between you
and the gold in the ETF. And they don't audit the gold to prove it
really exists. This is the only type of fund the SEC has ever
approved for the retail level that isn't required to audit the
assets supposedly backing the fund. It is a great way to speculate
on gold's spot price, just as futures contracts are a great way to
speculate on gold's future price. But neither should be viewed as an
alternative to owning the physical metal.
Barron's: Thanks, James.
----------------------------------------------------
Erstmal weiter runter......
Wie ich schon vermutet habe denn irgendwoher muessen die Aktien ja kommen die man verkauft.
GO GATA!!!
With the US off for our Memorial Day Holiday, the gold market was dead, but slightly lower. Silver, while quiet, showed independent strength, up 8 to 10 cents in overseas trading.
This morning gold had most all of the outside market factors going its way: much weaker dollar, higher oil prices, a surging silver price, and weak stock markets around the world.
The dollar began to fall off a cliff this morning when this news hit the tape:
Dollar falls on report of Snow's likely successor
TOKYO, May 30 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the yen and euro on Tuesday after a British newspaper reported that Don Evans, a possible successor to U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, was likely to favour a weaker dollar.
The Times of London said in an article in its online edition that Evans, a former U.S. commerce secretary, may fit the mould of past Treasury secretaries who have favoured a weaker dollar, given his political background…
-END-
It then firmed up somewhat when this news hit the tape, before tanking once again:
8:18 GS CNBC confirms that GS's Henry Paulson will be announced as Treasury Secretary to replace Snow (152.94)
Administration will announce Paulson as Treasury Secretary at 9:15 ET.
* * * * *
The gold action this morning was one of the worst in recent memory relative to silver and against a positive backdrop re outside financial markets. There was either a huge physical market seller, or there were many June specs who wanted to liquidate rather than rollover their long positions ahead of first notice day tomorrow.
Our sources on the Comex floor have felt for days that once the June rollover was out of the way, gold would fly.
Gold, as mentioned above, stumbled badly early, then took off like The Roadrunner, rocketing up to $665 per ounce as it broke its downtrend line when the early selling subdued, or was overwhelmed:
June gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/66
Gold and silver were flying when, as we have seen so many times in the past, the gold shares began to swoon mysteriously. The Gold Cartel was going into action once again and alerting other traders, via its gold share SMOKE SIGNAL program, that it was time to short gold at that point during the Comex trading session. We have seen this far, far too often for this to be a coincidence. Before you could blink, the XAU was DOWN on the day. This is beyond farce with gold up $8 and silver up 45 cents.
The Gold Cartel fleeced Café members and the rest of the gold/silver share world again. Meanwhile, none of the dopes in this moronic industry will say a word about it. Only GATA is out there doing what we can to get the truth told regarding what affects the gold market the most.
This is not bombast. A couple of developments surfaced over the past few days that are bombshells for GATA and added fodder for GATA’s credibility. Not that it would matter to the dingbats in the gold industry. God could declare GATA correct and these lightweights (outside the GATA camp) would call him a liar.
Regarding the shares and what is going on behind the scenes:
To Bill,
I have been a long time reader of Gold Eagle and familiar with your GATA organization.
I have just received an amended prospectus from my Gold fund stating that they have entered into an agreement with JP Morgan Chase to make "Loans of Portfolio Securities" of up to 25% of the funds net assets.
Call me stupid, or call me ignorant, but this practice does not seem like a very smart idea from my perspective, as a holder of Gold Equities.
This seems like a direct manipulation of the Supply / Demand equation. 25% of the net assets translates into a large supply of Gold Stocks flooding the market and driving down the price of gold stocks.
Here is a link to the prospectus. See page 2.
https://www.oppenh
eimerfunds.com/pdf/prospectuses/goldspecialmineralsfund.pdf?_requestid=11068
I have done some additional research, and this practice has been implemented by several other Gold Funds in the last few months.
Review this link to a Google Search:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22Loan
s+of+Portfolio+Securities%22+%2B+Gold&btnG=Google+Search
I am not an expert on the Gold Market, but I do have a basic understanding of economics. If you can create an increase in the supply of any good or service so that there is substantially more available, then you will cause the price of that good or service to fall. What I am seeing looks like a very clear case and practice of price manipulation of the Gold Equities.
I think that this is something GATA should be looking into. Let me know what you think about this practice.
-END-
Hab schon Tshonko, jetzt -26% ,sch... drauf !
Mein letzter Einsatz bei Solar.
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