Beiträge von Eldorado

The oil price: - is jumping now because the globe is heading irresistibly towards a situation where there will simply not be enough oil to go around, irrespective of the oil price, which is certain to go a great deal higher as those nations caught without sufficient oil bid up the price which looks like heading through $100 a barrel and higher.

The drive behind oil price rises in the seventies came from O.P.E.C. fed up with being paid inflated $ for their oil, but a whisper from Uncle Sam in their ear [primarily the Saudi government] about their future being reliant on U.S. backing had them towing the line and dropping prices.

The day when supply is just insufficient is likely to appear in 2007 or thereabouts, but could come considerably earlier, if Iran diverts its supply just to China, or supplies are damaged through a sectarian war among Muslim nations. It could come far earlier if we have another Hurricane Rita, hits the Gulf of Mexico, say, Houston? With global warming there could be more than one such hurricane hit.

China and India are likely to be able to maintain growth through such difficult days too so keeping demand for oil rising inexorably. Visions of national "Musical Chairs" around the oil price jump into ones mind with visions of rationing in the worst affected nations.

In the middle sit the Producers of oil, no longer dependent on the U.S. for their demand, but having a choice between East and West, each willing to pay the price. They are already signing deals with China to supply oil. In addition to the dangers to the oil price mentioned above, lies the growing threat of a conflagration in the Middle East between the two main branches of Islam, the Shi'ites and the Sunnis. Oil exports will no doubt be a prime target of both sides. Hence these prices cannot be dropped by political influence. Rather the reverse is true!

http://www.321gold.com/editori…llips/phillips051506.html

Le Metropole Members,

MIDAS: (GATA love that title tonight with gold putting
in an early surge in the Asian markets - a surge which is
one of the strongest in 10 years.)

IMF acts to avoid markets meltdown

Heather Stewart, economics correspondent
Sunday May 14, 2006
The Observer

The International Monetary Fund is in behind-the-scenes talks with the US, China and other major powers to arrange a series of top-level meetings about tackling imbalances in the global economy, as the dollar sell-off reverberates through financial markets.

Amid tumultuous trading, which sent the dollar to its lowest level in a year against the euro in late trading on Friday and gave the FTSE its worst day for three years, the IMF was working privately to exercise its new powers to bring decision-makers together.

At the IMF's Spring Meetings last month, its managing director, Rodrigo de Rato, was handed new responsibilities to carry out 'multilateral surveillance', assembling groups of relevant countries to discuss critical issues in the global economy. With the long-predicted dollar bear market sending ripples throughout the world, the IMF is keen to use its powers as soon as possible.

Analysts believe the weakening of the dollar is the beginning of a long-awaited readjustment in the global economy. After the Federal Reserve appeared to hint last week that it could pause in its series of interest rate rises, attention in the markets switched to the weaknesses of the US economy.

David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC, described the switch of focus as a 'regime change'. 'I'm saying don't use the philosophical methodology you used last year: chuck it away. The market has wholesale changed the way it looks at the world,' he said, predicting that the euro could rise to $1.40 over the next 12 months, from its current level close to $1.29.

Few analysts expect IMF discussions to result in a concerted deal on stemming the dollar sell-off; but governments and central banks will want to avoid a crisis.

'We are in meltdown mode,' said David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns. 'It's all being whipped up into a bit of a selling frenzy. The dollar has a massive portfolio of negatives against it: it's the long-term problems of the trade deficit, and the government's budget deficit.'

Bloom warned that 'phase two' of a sell-off would cause turmoil in the equity markets, as on Friday, when both the Dow Jones and FTSE saw sharp losses. 'I'm expecting an increase in volatility and uncertainty across the board,' he said.

Brown added that the dollar's woes were likely to be exacerbated by central banks shifting their reserves towards other currencies, including the euro. 'Asian central banks have been buying fistfuls of dollars as the flipside of their massive current account surpluses. They're long dollars.'

He added that with the US current account deficit with the rest of the world worth 7 per cent of its GDP in 2005, the White House and the Federal Reserve would probably be happy to watch the dollar decline. 'I don't think Washington's going to be concerned,' he said.

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Le Patron

Saccard

Jetzt verstehe ich dich besser was du meinst mit 74-76.
Das Problem heute ist das sie wenig dagegen zu schmeissen haben.
Das meiste Gold traegt man in Indien am Hals aber das bekommen die nicht so schnell zurueck.

http://www.321gold.com/editori…llips/phillips051506.html

A market moving like today's has always been a 'spike' or 'bubble', set to burst, because one assumes that those who bought it must sell once the profit is achieved. But today's market has the above ingredients in it, which describe a far broader and deeper market than ever seen before. This market is more a haven from other investments including currencies and fixed interest securities. So the reasons to sell would have to be founded on the fears of such investors being removed. A cursory glance at the above describes the likelihood of matters worsening across the globe and gold coming into its own as a solid investment when others move out of that particular category.

We see no small speculators flooding the market, indeed the traders of note the hedge funds are low profile in this market.
.
There is no panic in the buying, buying on the dips when possible. The investors are competent professionals taking a position in a long-term investment..

This market is not the gold market of a year ago, where the players could move prices either way, where large quick sales from Central Banks would have burst such bubbles.
This is a market that wants to go higher, much higher !

Julian D.W. Phillips

-----------------------------------------

HUI: Major Upswing in the making! Part II

Dear reader,

An editorial discussing the current HUI situation (which is lagging the price of Gold tremendously) has been posted at:

http://www.golddrivers.com/GDR…ate20060514htmversion.htm

Excerpt:

But as said before sometimes the gold shares are a bit too enthusiastic and run a bit too far ahead of gold which translates itself into a steep decline of the Gold/HUI ratio. What happens next is that the Gold/HUI ratio starts to climb for awhile until it catches up to its natural declining trend-line.. And exactly this is what happened since April 17, the Gold/HUI ratio appreciated from 1.61 to 1.91 thereby flirting with its 200 dma. From here on I don’t see a much further upside potential for the Gold/HUI ratio so that simply means that the odds are in favor for a new down-leg towards new lows. Sure enough this will translate itself into new HUI highs….

In case this link doesn’t work please go to:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/hommelberg051406.html

http://www.golddrivers.com à Editorials Eric H.

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/artikel/819/75744/

Tatsächlich informieren sich viele Edelmetallfans, Profis wie Privatleute, über den Markt im Internet. Netdania.com, Kitco.com oder eben Goldseiten.de heißen die einschlägigen Seiten, die auch im Handelsraum bei Pro Aurum mitlaufen. Goldseiten.de als einziges großes deutschsprachiges Forum zum Thema genieße wegen seiner Unabhängigkeit inzwischen Kultstatus, versichern mehrere Anleger. Der Macher der Seite, der Maschinenbauer Frank Hoffmann aus Neustadt an der Orla in Thüringen, legt selbst allergrößten Wert darauf, sich und seine Seite als "reine Sammlung von gut begründeten Anlageideen und Artikeln zum Edelmetallthema" zu sehen..........

Danke fuer das Kompliment, aber die Mitglieder hier bestimmen den Status, die sind eben der Speck in der Suppe und sollten nicht veraergert werden.

Wie unabhaengig die Herren sind weiss ich nicht, umsonst machen aber wenige etwas, oder ?...... ABN

Das Pro Aurum dann verkaufen schreit finde ich nicht richtig wie bereits erwaehnt...........man widerspricht sich hier:

""Wegen der weltweit "nie mehr rückzahlbaren Schulden" rechnet Popp "mit dem Zusammenbruch des auf dem Dollar basierten Geldsystems bis 2010". Die Anlage in Edelmetallen sei zwar "keine Lösung, aber das wichtigste Mittel, um schadlos, das heißt ohne Enteignung, durch die Krise zu kommen". Umstritten ist Popp auch wegen seines gewagten Kursziels: Bei 6500 Dollar je Feinunze sieht er den Goldpreis bis 2010 und überbietet damit selbst die Prognosen des amerikanischen Rohstoff-Gurus Jim Rogers, der den Preis immerhin bei 1000 Dollar sieht.
Manche Experten erinnert die Edelmetallhausse an den Höhenflug der Kurse in der Aktieneuphorie 1999/2000.

"Wir werden rechtzeitig zum Ausstieg blasen ! ...das sind wir unseren Kunden schuldig" verspricht Pro-Aurum-Gründer Hartmann.

Einstieg sicherlich auch,aber was soll der Kunde denken wenn er kurz vorher verkauft hat nach der Blaserei ??

Die Crash-Thesen von Popp teilt er nicht. Trotzdem ist Hartmann überzeugt: "Die Edelmetallhausse kann noch bis zu fünf Jahre dauern."..... really ???

Aber so bekommt man eben das Lager auch wieder voll, fuer den Neuverkauf. :D.... Zwischenhandel,.... ich kapiers schon.

Man haette besser heimlich verkauft, wenn schon !

Naja, Hauptsache....Die Goldseiten haben mir geholfen, schneller an Informationen zu kommen........

Stimmt , Wissen ist Geld oder Gold !

Frank Hoffmann sagt "Ich verkaufe nichts außer den Landmaschinen in meinem Familienbetrieb."

Das Unternehmen Pro Aurum profitiert von der wachsenden Skepsis vieler Menschen.
Das Geschäftsvolumen hat sich seit dem vergangenen Jahr vervierfacht. sagt Mirko Schmidt, Geschäftsführer von Pro Aurum.

Wie auch immer, Ich wuensche weiterhin gute Geschaefte damit die Kasse klingelt aber das naechste mal seid vorsichtig was ihr sagt als Gold/Silberbugs bei Pro Aurum.

Mir ist es eigentlich Wurst, ich hole die Infos und Gold wo anders als von Pro Aurum.

Gleich kommt die Sperre.

Gnight

Eldo

Mei Goldy, redet wieder keiner mit Dir, sag mal wie hast du wieder so viele Daumen nach oben bekommen und keiner meldet sich.

Meine Meinung ?....... hast du von dem zu wenig im Money Management Goldy.

Saccard ;), mit dem was du so vorschlagst habe ich nichts am Hut.
Schuster bleib bei deinen Leisten heisst es so schoen.
Ich brauche das Klopapier nicht als Anlage.
Puts habe ich noch nie gehabt, nur calls bei den PM's !

^TNX und ^FVX die Indices kenne ich nicht.

Was 74-76 passiert ist, da muss ich erst nachschauen.

I know what I know, that gold has to go up in the long run, the only real money !

Gruss

Eldo

@ Mexx

Ich habe irgendwo gelesen das bei einen Goldstandard heute der Goldpreis mindestens 3300 USD sein muss.

Klar was ist der Dollar oder Euro dann wert ?

Wo wir wieder bei Inflation sind nach der Deflation die Helicopter Ben fabriziert.

Wie lange das dauert und wann es so wird weiss ich auch nicht aber ich weiss das ich mir mindestens das selbe kaufen kann mit einer Unze Gold was ich beim Papiergeld nicht sagen kann..

Die shorts kaempfen ums ueberleben , einige Banken koennten konkurs anmelden oder es gibt wieder ein Chapter 11.

Irgendwann geht denen genauso die munition aus wie bei mir das cash.

Eine Waehrungs Reform kommt viel spaeter, Mexx.

Wird auch hoechste Zeit das man nur so viel Geld drucken kann wie man Gold oder Rohstoffe hat.

Ciao

XEX

In the Face of Inflation,
Gold is a 24-Karat Bet

By David Nicklaus
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Sunday, May 14, 2006

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/business/columnists.
nsf/davidnicklaus/story/8E4BBBF316D308268625716D000B2F5A?OpenDocument

The price of gold has risen $100 in a month and $300 in a year, but the public hasn't caught gold fever just yet.

Wistar Holt, founder of Holt & Shapard Capital Management, is perhaps St. Louis' No. 1 gold bug. He has put virtually all of his clients' money in gold-mining stocks since 2001, and they've handily outperformed the broader stock market.

But even with gold hitting a 26-year high last week, the public hasn't shown much interest.

"It's misunderstood," Holt says. "Most people don't realize it's really a currency. There's a whole generation that's been misled to believe it's a barbaric relic.

"If the stock market undergoes some kind of sharp correction, it would accelerate the public's interest in gold," he says hopefully.

Gus Saettele, owner of Saettele Jewelers in Clayton, says his customers don't seem very concerned about the price of gold, even though it has added a couple hundred dollars to the price of a $3,000 diamond ring. When gold hit a record $850 an ounce in 1980, Saettele recalled, customers often spoke of their desire to buy a piece of jewelry quickly before it got more expensive. He hasn't heard that comment recently, although he says business has been brisk.

As a businessman, Saettele has to pay attention to the daily gyrations of precious metals markets. "You can't sell everything as if it was $500 gold when you've got to replace your inventory at $700," he said.

A gold price of $700 seemed far-fetched even a year ago, when the metal was selling for about $415 an ounce. It passed the $700 level on Tuesday, and closed Friday at $714.80.

The rapid runup has traders trying to guess whether the record of $850 will be surpassed this year. One analyst has even predicted that the rally will take gold to $2,000, which is close to what the 1980 price would buy in today's dollars.

Gold is considered an inflation hedge, which is why it performed so well in the inflationary 1970s. Don Vaught, a futures analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons, jokes that gold is merely trying to keep up with less precious commodities like copper and oil.

Oil, as everyone knows, is in record territory at more than $70 a barrel, and copper hit a record price last week of $8,800 a ton. "Gold traders ... believe that the strength you're seeing in the base metals and energy commodities is going to translate into inflation across the board," Vaught said.

Global political instability adds to the demand for precious metals. It's no coincidence that Iran, where an Islamic revolution occurred during the last major bull market in gold, is now worrying the West with its nuclear ambitions.

In essence, gold has resumed its role as a safe haven for people who worry that paper currencies, like the dollar or the euro, might lose value rapidly.

Gold bugs like Holt think there's an additional cause for gold's rapid rise: He says that major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, have taken huge short positions in gold over the years, and are buying frantically to cover those positions.

Whatever the reason, this barbaric relic seems to be winning new converts almost daily. Until the world becomes a safer place, it seems likely to keep doing so.

.........................................

JJJJ.... he is really a goldbug ! :D....

XEX

-END-

Edel, ich borge wieder im Rahmen und pfeif auf die 6% Zinsen :D.
Mein profit bei den PM's ist jetzt wo anders fast gratis.
Guten Tsunamipuffer eingebaut, lets see !

Das Goldcartel ist trapped, sie gehen den Bach runter.
Goldman Sachs war ein Kaeufer am Freitag.
Langsamer, kurzfristiger und mehr volotile wird der Markt nun ausgewaschen, kurzfristig.
Der PoG macht eh schon grosse Spruenge rauf und runter, genauso wird es bei den Aktien werden, so aehnlich wie Freitag wird normal.
Die Power von frueher haben die Shorts nicht mehr Gold ueber Wochen zu druecken.
They have a lot to cover !
Die Minenwerte sind nicht dem Goldpreis nachgezogen weil die meisten Leute diese Hebel/Atien nicht verstehen und bis jetzt nur auf den PoG schauen.
Frage doch die Leute was Glamis Gold ist oder Silver Wheaton ?
Most have no clue !
Viele glauben es hat was mit Iran zu tun aber das ist laecherlich.
Gold geht auf 3000 - 5000 Dollar so gross ist der Schaden die das Cartel mit Deriviaten angerichtet haben.
Goldaktien werden noch so steigen das manche es nicht glauben wollen. Fallen tun sie auch zwischendurch wohlbemerkt.
Die Aktien koennten sich bei der ""Mania"" die bald kommt sich in 7 Handelstagen sogar verdoppeln.
Oil wird steigen wie alles, Gold wird der Koenig sein wenn der bank run kommt und der gold rush ""bekannt"" ist bei jeder Hausfrau.
""They will look for gold like never before""
Die Chinesen/Russen zum Beispiel haben heimlich viele Rohstoffe und PM gekauft bevor die Panik beim USD anfaengt.
Der Dollar ist in deep trouble, wenn man Newmont vergleicht z.B. mit dem kurs von heute und den kurs von einem PoG mit 500 Dollar dann sind die PM Aktien total unterbewertet, wie Saccard schon erwaehnt hat..
Die Aktien haben bis jetzt nichts gemacht aber das wird noch ganz verrueckt so aehnlich wie bei der Nasdaq Blase.

Its going to be wild west in this market, get in while you can sagt er.

Ich glaube ihn ! ;)....... die letzten beissen die Hunde.

Bitte jeder ist fuer seine Aktion selbst verantwortlich und machen was er denkt.

Ich denke mir meinen Teil und lasse mich ueberraschen wie die show weiter geht in der naechsten Woche.

Gnight , ihr Zocker !

Edel die Cabal Baeren ware mal gross aber sind ziemlich geschrumpft in letzter Zeit.

Ich bin der Meinung das sich der neue Trend innerhalb der naechsten 7 Handelstagen zeigt.

Entweder seitlich weiter, weiter rauf, oder weiter runter.

Sobald ich eine deutliche Aenderung sehe das wir nur eine mini korrektur hatten,die grosse kann aber noch kommen, kaufe ich nach.

Konservativ macht man nichts wie Saccard schon sagt, erst recht wenn man Probleme mit der Steuer hat.

Cheers

XEX

Ich hoere mir nun an was Bill dazu sagt:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1147669162.php

Oh, Mahendra habe ich vergessen, geschrieben am 8.Mai !
Da hatte er Recht muss ich sagen, genauso war es letzte Woche.

A GREAT CRASH ON ALL COMMODITIES FROM 18 MAY BUT TILL THAN TOO VOLATILE SO AVOID TRADING IN IT.

I am in no way suggesting that gold shouldn’t go up. Not at all! However, many immature investors are jumping into it as though there will be no tomorrow, with rises fuelled by news of Iran and a weak dollar. If only four years are spent out of a 52 year bull market, 48 still remain and at this rate, it would mean that an ounce could eventually rise to $10000!

Well I shall not belabour the point, but prudence is definitely called for.

Anyhow, my warning still stands for the short-term period for gold. On Monday evening, the Moon will be changing houses and this should bring a short-term side way price movement for gold on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Thursday and Friday gold will move up though metal investors will experience severe volatility, which will put many buyers and sellers in to a major dilemma whether to hold metals or not.

A wait and watch policy in metals will be the right one.

Short term – Volatility

Medium term – SIDE WAY OR DOWN

Long term – UP

As it is, my answer will come after 18 May as there is a six week negative period which is on the cards.

more....

http://mahendraprophecy.com/LatestFlash.asp?Id=236&Page=1

MMA weekly :

The markets are rumbling. There is a sense of urgency and maybe even a little panic entering the political realm, and also many of the financial and commodity markets, especially in currencies, precious metals, and crude oil. Things are not so stable anymore, as we head into the very powerful Jupiter-Uranus trine (and six other Level One signatures) in the next ten days. This is therefore likely to be one of the most important geocosmic clusters – and hence potential market timing reversals – of the year...... more

http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm

Wobei eine short time rally des USD nicht auszuschliessen ist.

Die naechste Woche wird auf alle Faelle kritisch fuer einige.

Ich hoffe fuer die shorties.

http://www.godmode-trader.de/news/?ida=441377&idc=8

In like a Lion - out like a Lamb

May 12 - This week kicked off with a bang; including a blockbuster base metal takeover announcement and soaring gold prices - but closed off with a synchronized correction across the board. .

Listen to Lou... ;)... and look at his charts.http://www.howestreet.com/gold…es/Charts_of_the_week.pdf

http://www.howestreet.com/gold…/mediaplayer?audio_id=313

Oil sieht nicht gut aus

Cést la vie

Bobelle das ist ein guter Link, da sind sie alle drin.

http://www.altenergystocks.com/stocks.html

http://www.altenergystocks.com/portfolio.html

Ich glaube der neue Index zum vergleichen ist ^NGE-X

Die XSNX ist ein Miststueck, ich glaube aber dort ist was verkehrt in der Firma so wie die gefallen ist. bei mir sind es -28% Verlust im Depot

Ich mache dort einmal gar nix und lasse die auch erstmal alle laufen wie Tschonko es macht.

Have a sunny day

Cheers

Eldo

Edel der Absatz ist auch lustig, stimmt aber !

I'm more comfortable buying when everyone says you're an idiot for doing so, :D...or at least when they're skeptical. When we're all hearing about what a great investment gold is, I'll be looking for other opportunities. But my guess is that we won't really be there for another year. And when it arrives, the mania should last for some time, as it did most recently with the Internet stocks.

Und wenn mein Friseur mir erzaehlt welche Aktien ich unbedingt kaufen soll dann nix wie weg.

Danke Edel, have a nice day

..Das Procedere kann Monate dauern... so wie bei IMA

Edel, ich bin hier nicht up to date, wann soll die umwandlung in usgl stattfinden ?

Ich halte WKR.V und NPG.V, natuerlich USGL

Gruss

Eldo