Ich denke mal das ein Nein in den jetzigen Wechselkurs schon eingebaut ist.
Warum soll der Dax stark abfallen, es waere doch gut fuer alle die exportieren. Auch dort ist das Nein mit einbebaut. IMHO
Die Handelsbilanz der Amis waere dann noch schlechter als zuvor.
Man wird es nicht zulassen das die EU auseinander bricht,die soll ja noch in der Zukunft bis Nordafrika gehen. 
Nach der Tuerkei und eventuell Nordafrika bricht sie erst auseinander.
Man wird durch irgend einen Trick ein knappes Ja bekommen ist meine Vermutung.....warten wir mal ab. 
Friday, May 27, 2005, 4:32:00 PM EST
Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGA:
This weekend’s EU referendum is the primary if not only focus of currency markets. Present indications point to 53% of French voters saying no to the EU Constitution. The euro is down from the range of 1.35 to 1.25.
Some speculate that this is enough, but we know that markets can easily overreact to any event.
Predicting what the French will do even from polls is risky at best. Without a doubt, either a yes or no vote will impact currency markets but not change in any manner the fundamental condition of the US dollar.
The idea that the US economic situation is going to outperform the EU by index to index comparison is the flavor of the month for currency valuation but the Current Account performance is infinitely more important.
You might recall the economic analogy about the US economic recovery being the aircraft that will lift all other economies with it. The question was not if the take off would occur but rather what the landing would look like. If, indeed, the US has lifted world economies and is now running out of steam that slowdown should impact the EU first.
We are seeing good economic reports one day and bad the next. This occurred today again. That is the sign of a weakening of the momentum of the recovery, a key ingredient to tax revenues and therefore the US Federal budget where expenses are high and going higher.
If the French vote no it will only accelerate the EU business slow down. That hurts US exports.
European Economies: French Confidence Drops in May (Update2)
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturers' confidence in France, Europe's third-largest economy, unexpectedly fell to a 19-month low in May as companies including PSA Peugeot Citroen grappled with higher raw-material costs and a worsening economic outlook.
An index measuring sentiment among 2,000 manufacturers fell to 96 from 97 in April, statistics office Insee said in Paris today. Economists expected an increase to 98, according to the median estimate of 26 in a Bloomberg survey.
Concern about a weakening economy and rising unemployment have contributed to a decline in support for President Jacques Chirac and mounting opposition to the European Union constitution before a referendum May 29, polls show. Some 13,500 jobs have been lost in France since Chirac was re-elected in 2002, pushing the unemployment rate to a five-year high of 10.2 percent in March.
When that change occurred it transformed America’s role in the world, the way it was run at home, and the views Americans had about themselves and the world they lived in. For example, they felt obliged not only to read about dreary events on the other side of the world -- but to have an opinion about them. The shift to an imperial stance – taking over from Britain at the end of WWI – defined modern American society and government.![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}