Beiträge von Eldorado

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    Feiertag heute in Canada,no trade today.
    Genau vor 7 Jahren war ich dort am Victoria Day.
    Vancouver Island,Whistler nach Jasper, die Rockies,runter nach Idaho im Juni- August kann ich jeden empfehlen aber nur mit einem SUV 4x4 als Leihwagen. :))
    6000 km bin ich abgeradelt, schoen wars !

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Le Metropole Members,


    ( BW)(TX-GATA) Intervention against Gold Rising Sharply,
    GATA Says, Citing New Derivatives Report


    Business Editors


    DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 23, 2005-



    Government intervention against the gold price has risen sharply since
    the middle of last year,     the Gold Anti-Trust Action
    Committee reported today.
    The increase in intervention, GATA said, was disclosed
    last week in the Bank for International Settlements'
    semi-annual report on the issuance of derivatives by major
    banks and dealers in G-10 countries. The report was studied
    by GATA's consultants -- James Turk, founder of GoldMoney
    and editor of the Freemarket Gold & Money Report; Michael
    Bolser, editor of the Interventional Analysis newsletter;
    and Reginald H. Howe, gold market analyst and principal of Golden Sextant Advisers.
    The new derivatives numbers from the BIS are "stunning"
    in regard to gold,     Turk said, summarizing GATA's research.
    "In major banks and dealers in the G-10 countries, the total notional value of gold derivatives rose from $318 billion
    at mid-year 2004 to $369 billion at year-end.
    "That $51 billion increase -- a 32-percent annual rate
    of growth     -- occurred while gold miners were reducing their hedge positions.


    "The reduction in hedge positions by mining companies
    should have resulted in a decrease in the aggregate position
    in the BIS report. That it didn't happen suggests that the international economist Frank Veneroso is right. Here's what Veneroso had to say in the March issue of Gold Newsletter:


    There is only one possible explanation for why purchases
    of thousands of tonnes of gold in the futures and forwards markets do not blow the price of gold sky-high: The official sector must step in on gold price rallies as an offsetting forward seller.


    How much more gold can governments dishoard to throw at
    the gold market to keep the price down? ?(


    "The answer," Turk says, "is of course unknowable, both
    to us as well as to the governments intervening in the gold market. At some point the banks executing the government positions are going to reach the tipping point, when the
    free-market demand for gold overwhelms government price
    capping. I think that moment is near for one important
    reason.


    "Price capping in gold can be prolonged only by
    continually supplying the market with physical metal. Right
    now the demand for physical metal is strong. So governments
    can sell all the paper derivatives they want, but it isn't
    going to stop people from buying metal. In fact, the low
    price of gold resulting from government price capping is
    causing the demand for physical gold to increase."
    GATA's findings on the latest BIS gold derivatives
    report can be found on the Internet here:


    http://www.goldensextant.com/Charts.html

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Sunday, May 22, 2005, 11:27:00 PM EST


    Jim’s Mail Box


    Hi Jim:


    I thought I would turn the tables on the “expert pundits” who never seem to weary of extolling the wisdom and supposed superiority of the commercial category of traders when it comes to being on the correct side of the market.


    Time after time these past few years, we have been treated to the comments of those who should know better, that when it comes to the gold market, the “smart” commercials, who continue to amass huge net short positions on each leg upward in the gold price, are always right and the speculators who are long are always overloaded on the long side and are wrong. Of course such punditry is a lot like so much of modern-day technical analysis in that it is self fulfilling prophecy which increasingly is becoming disconnected from fundamental reality.


    Take a look at the following chart I put together from the COT data on the dollar index beginning in 2001 and including the most recent data through Tuesday of this past week.


    You will notice that the “savvy” and always correct commercial category (I am of course being facetious here) have used this most recent bear market rally in the U.S. Dollar to build the largest net short position they have held for at least 4 years. The speculators on the other hand have managed to build the largest combined net long position for the same period. In other words, we have a classic setup of commercials entirely on one side of the market against the speculators who are entirely on the opposite side of the market - and both camps with sizeable positions at that.


    If we follow conventional wisdom, we can predict that the dollar is being set up for a hard fall as the entire spec community is overwhelming bullish and has become so in a matter of less than 2 months. Well, here’s a chance for the “experts” to take a dose of their own medicine. Let’s see whether or not we hear the same clarion calls for a top in the dollar and talk about the overextended spec long position as we inevitably hear about gold.


    This also calls for a comment. I am still reading punditry from “experts” who continue to talk about the overwhelmingly bearish attitude towards the dollar that exists out there as reason for the continuance of the dollar rally from a contrarian standpoint. I am not sure what these whiz kids are smoking, but any claim that global dollar sentiment is bearish is completely and utterly preposterous based on the data detailed in this chart.


    Let me change gears a moment and get a bit less sarcastic and simply state what is obvious from looking at this chart – dollar sentiment has shifted to an almost overwhelming bullishness among speculators who continue to run after the dollar and chase it higher and higher as we now observe the effects of today’s generation of pure momentum trading. Meanwhile, the commercial camp is meeting every bit of spec buying with increased sales at subsequently higher and higher levels.


    Eventually the spec buying is going to wane and upward momentum will slow. At that point, somewhere, somehow, from some quarter, something is going to precipitate a barrage of selling as specs look to book profits before the next guy does and they begin to trip over each other in an attempt to find the exit sign. When that occurs, the selling will begin to feed on itself and seeing that it is coming from such high levels and huge position sizes, we will see a swift and hard fall in the dollar.


    Gold will take its cue from the dollar cascade lower and will rip violently upward forcing the new spec shorts that have been put on at these low levels in that market to run for cover and in the process giving them a painful lesson in selling weakness in gold.


    Very best



    Gruss
    Eldorado

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Frr hat einen link reingelegt,der geht aber nur als member von LMC.
    Ich erlaube mir diesen reinzulegen wen es nicht interessiert der kann ihn ja ueberfliegen. In einen anderen Interview mit Dr.Marc Faber sagte dieser Mann man sollte nicht Goldmuenzen und Barren in den USA horten sondern er empfehlt eher die Schweiz,Singapore, und speziell in Indien weil man dort Gold am wenigsten beschlagnahmt im Fall einer Krise. Also seid vorsichtig wo ihr Euer Gold lagert, man weiss nie was der Staat damit machen will.
    Laut Faber's Meinung erreicht der Goldpreis mit Dow Jones Index und S&P 500 einen Gleichstand innerhalb von 10 Jahren,momentan sollte man auf Cash sitzen fuer einen Zeitraum von ca. 6 Monaten und erst dann in Gold einsteigen fuer die naechsten 5-7 Jahre.


    Professor von Braun
    The Rocket School of Economics.
    May 21, 2005


    Since 1932 the US dollar, currently the pre-eminent reserve currency of nearly all central banks, has been losing purchasing power, estimated by some as being as much as 95%, or put another way what cost a $1.00 in 1932 now needs $19.00 to acquire. From a purchasing power point of view it has already collapsed. During that 73 year period much has happened when it comes to financial markets, currencies, debt, taxes and the concept of wealth.


    The actuality of a currency that was redeemable in gold and or silver by the issuer of the paper notes is of course, long gone. Ownership of gold by U.S. citizens was outlawed on April 5, 1933 when President Roosevelt issued an executive order "forbidding the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion and gold certificates." This made it a felony to own the metal punishable by a fine of up to $10,000 or 10 years imprisonment. Gold was handed in and the holders received $20.67 per ounce. President Roosevelt issued a proclamation under the Gold Reserve Act on January 31, 1934 permanently ‘fixing’ the price of gold at $35 per ounce, a substantial increase on the price paid to ‘citizens’ who had, several months earlier been forced to return their gold for a lesser price.


    President Nixon’s decision to activate the right given earlier by Congress and remove the US off an international gold standard on August 15, 1971 ended the convertibility of the dollar by foreign holders into gold and set free US central bankers to essentially issue as much paper as they thought necessary


    What is often overlooked is that, as of January 1, 1975, when private ownership by US citizens of gold was allowed, the U.S. dollar indirectly went back onto a gold standard, though that return was only partial due to legal tender laws. Nonetheless, the option for individual U.S. citizens to convert paper currency to physical metal and take delivery had, after 42 years, been restored. Obviously, as gold is priced in US dollars the holders of these dollars now had the ability to convert them into a gold instrument, either coin or bullion and once again become "hoarders" if they so wished.


    For several years after that date the ‘price’ of gold increased dramatically as commodity inflation ruled the day, culminating in January of 1980 in the mid $800’s.


    Since that time we have witnessed the expansion of financial markets to a degree never seen before. Asset inflation has been taking place at a very rapid rate, with the Federal Reserve printing ‘money’ – essentially swapping paper for paper, IOU’s for IOU’s, creating the appearance of ‘value’ merely by inflating prices by creating more IOU’s.


    The perceived value of an individual’s assets has of course risen dramatically during this period with hardly a market being missed out. Stock prices, house prices, gas prices, new car prices, art prices, meal prices, education prices, medical costs, etc, all have risen in either value or cost.


    In fact the ‘value’ of these increased assets is not dissimilar from the decline in the purchasing power of the instrument used to denominate them. In other words, as the quoted price of something goes up it appears to be nearly the exact opposite of the decrease in the purchasing power of the instrument used to transact business. While the individual may have more of the ‘units’, effectively the purchasing power has decreased to the same degree that the value of the asset has increased.


    After August 15, 1971, when, as previously mentioned, the US dollar was no longer convertible into gold, a decision that followed the ongoing redemption of large amounts of US $’s (IOU’s) for bullion by the French, Italian, Dutch and German banking systems (from 1950 through to 1973 official US gold reserves decreased by 11000 tonnes, most of which ended up in Europe) the US was now able to run what President de Gaulle’s economic advisor, Jacques Rueff had called the ‘deficit without tears."


    In other words, a deficit could be maintained with no accountability since there no longer was anything to convert the dollars into other than to deposit them with US banks, which is where they came from. The recipients of these dollars were basically stuck with them and that is the situation today. The only way to maintain this rather neat trick is to continue to inflate assets via the creation of more paper ad infinitum. As long as the illusion of wealth in the form of rising asset prices is maintained via the process of re-inflation and every major central bank agrees to play the game, then obviously given the rise in value in recent years of assets denominated in dollars, it works very well.


    It should come as no surprise that the gold market has been manipulated during this period, as the entire asset inflation game is a manipulation in its own right, designed to maintain the illusion of wealth, while producing little of value and gold can not be excluded.


    What is worthy of note is that the gold price today has also increased from 1932 by a factor similar to the decrease in the purchasing power of the dollar, about 20 fold actually, which suggests a constant at work here, albeit an often unrecognized one. When it comes to gold and currencies one could well ask the question, "which came first, the chicken or the egg?’ Or perhaps, more precisely, it might be useful to ask "Which is the chicken and which is the egg?"


    The convertibility ratio of the dollar into gold remains similar to what it was in the early 1930’s from a purchasing power perspective, in spite of obvious attempts to remove it from the role as the benchmark by which all currencies are measured. Obviously there have been fluctuations in both the value of the dollar and the quoted price of gold but gold, unlike paper currencies, can’t become other than what it is.


    The one big advantage it has is this simple fact, that gold is gold and it never will be anything else. Gold is not a promise to pay a promise to pay. The value, when compared to the purchasing power of the dollar has remained relatively constant for 72 years (since 1933 when gold ownership by an individual was illegal) and during the 34 years (since 1971 when the US went off the gold standard) that the now unconstrained US $ has been the financial world’s pre-eminent reserve currency. Indeed gold’s value has been constant over millennia; a well known example being today’s cost of a serviceable man’s suit compared to a Roman outfitting expense; an ounce of gold.


    Today citizens of the U.S., along of course with the rest of the world, have the ability to go neutral on the dollar and hold gold as a hedge against a collapsing or depreciating currency.


    Recently there has been much chatter about the imminent collapse of the US dollar, as well as talk of other Central Banks diversifying there reserves into something other than US dollars. Warren Buffet has been short the dollar, as have other notable holders of US dollar denominated assets. These assets are of course the same ones that have risen in value as a result of the aggressive asset inflation scheme led by the Federal Reserve and now adopted by most Western nations. It should not be surprising that rising real estate prices are common to the countries involved, while stocks are, since 2000 a tad more subdued and not as volatile to the upside.


    Real estate is of course the deadlier manipulation as there are more participants, home owners and would be home owners than there are participants in the stock market and they all need a roof over their heads after all. It should not be a surprise that the current real estate boom follows the heady days of Nasdaq at 5000+, as the bankers needed something to keep the asset inflation game going and homeowners generally have reliable cashflow from income, although that too is getting pushed to the limit.


    What is surprising is the idea that other Central Bank’s can diversify into something other than the US dollar as a reserve, when the dollar already constitutes 70% of the reserves of all other Central Banks. What would they diversify into? By holding dollars they can’t redeem they too have been locked into the asset inflation game which has to continue for it to continue. The concept of going neutral on the dollar is not an alternative they have.


    Could the Bank of Japan diversify? Could the ECB diversify? Diversify into what one has to ask, since they are all holding US dollars as a large percentage of their reserves, who would buy them?


    One answer I have heard from a well known dollar bear is that they would buy gold. From whom I asked? How could a Central Bank convert $100 Billion of reserves into gold, which even at today’s prices equates to approximately 8000 tonnes of physical metal? It is an impossibility, since a) the metal is not available and b) who would be the buyers for the US $. If the US still has its reported 8000 tonnes of gold reserves, how could it, with gold at $420 an ounce, go back to redeeming dollars for gold, given the trillion dollar numbers of debt instruments out there?

  • Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI

    Gold Fields ready to move forward


    World number four gold miner Gold Fields has put Harmony Gold's bid firmly behind it and the group was looking ahead to focus on its operations and future, Gold Fields Chief Executive Ian Cockerill said in a statement on Friday.


    Gold Fields said that it was pleased with Friday's decision by the High Court of South Africa stating that the offer by Harmony lapsed on December 18, 2004 and that the offer could not be revised or reinstated.


    "We did not want this hostile bid, but during the offer period I believe we proved beyond doubt that Gold Fields is a strong and competitive gold player, with the assets, the people, the strength and the strategy to deliver superior value for our shareholders," Cockerill added.


    "On behalf of the board and everyone in Gold Fields, I would like to thank our shareholders for their support for the company throughout this bid.


    "I would also like to thank Gold Fields' loyal employees for their commitment and perseverance. Along with everyone at Gold Fields, I remain 100 percent committed to delivering value and rewarding shareholders' trust in this company," he said.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Guten Morgen, (glaube nicht fuer Gold) :(


    Leider habe ich keine guten Nachrichten fuer die Goldbugs.


    Ich habe heute folgende Prediction erhalten,nennen wir es erstmal ein Geruecht bis es eintrifft. Meine Theorie waere somit falsch das Gold die 415 Dollar haelt, was der HUI macht sehen wir noch. Die Gefahr besteht fuer weitere 10% runter. Der Dollar bleibt weiterhin stark in dieser Woche und erreicht ein neues Jahreshoch.
    Die Wahl in Deutschland und das Referendum in Frankreich am 29.Mai tragen dazu bei. Der Fed wird die Zinsen bis 5% hochschrauben danach bricht der Dollar ein.
    Falls China in die Enge gezwungen wird werden sie ihre Dollars und T-Bonds auf den Markt werfen und der Schaden ist dann enorm fuer USA.
    Die meisten Asiatischen Waehrungen sind unterbewertet gegenueber dem USD. Der Singapore Dollar z.B wird in der Zukunft steigen.
    Es ist keine Utopie das Der Singapore Dollar gleichstand mit dem Dollar erreicht in wenigen Jahren.


    Die meisten Leser wissen woher die Prediction kommt darum lasse ich sie nicht in den selben Text und schreibe es nur kurz ohne den Autor zu aergern und gebe sie Euch gratis egal wie wertvoll diese ist.


    Gold:


    Diese Woche soll angeblich die low trading range zwischen 408.70 - 412.20 USD liegen , nach oben max. 418.50 Dollar.
    Im Juni sollte es besser aussehen aber dann kommt leider ein weiterer Tsunami fuer Gold.


    Innerhalb 3-9 Monaten trading zwischen 375 - 441 USD 8o
    Momentan waere das der Durchschnittskurs von 408 Dollar.
    Ich befuerchte die 375 USD koennen bis mitte August erreicht werden durch Dollarstaerke und weiteren Manipulationen, danach gehts auf die 441 USD bis ca. 2005/2006. Bis der Boden unter 400 erreicht ist sollte man Cash halten und dann zuschlagen.


    Der Dow beginnt bald die grosse Talfahrt bei 10.000 und kann GM Aktien kurzfristig mit runter ziehen.


    In den naechsten 2-5 Jahren steht Gold zwischen 1000 - 1200 USD


    Suedafrika GM sind jetzt am steigen da der Rand nun seinen Abstieg macht.
    Die kann/sollte man jetzt kaufen und sollten den jetzigen Kurs trotz Goldschwaeche mindestens halten.


    Silber:


    Kurzfristig sind 6.75 - 6.54 USD nach unten moeglich.
    Innerhalb wenigen Wochen von diesen Wert kommt ein grossen Aufstieg und Silber kann innerhalb drei Jahren ca. 18-27 Dollar erreichen.


    Vielleicht sollte man in wenigen Tagen seine Silberposition erhoehen und erst viel spaeter ca. Fruehjahr 2006 zusaetzlich Gold/Aktien kaufen.
    Die Vorhersage ueber Gold hat mich geschockt , ich nehme sie zur Kenntniss und verhalte mich dementsprechend.


    ....So schön der kurzfristige Erfolg auch ist, im Endeffekt zählt nur, was langfristig unter dem Strich übrig bleibt."
    Gregor Gielen



    Gruss


    Eldorado

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Interesting Interviews in English( Multi Media) at:


    http://www.howestreet.com/fbn/index.php


    A gateway to financial news and Gold Radio.


    I liked a lot the Interviews of:


    Dr.Marc Faber (Swiss) ....A must watch ! http://www.howestreet.com/fbn/…161cc8eab78313c2adade1f1f


    Lou Paquette z.B. (Goldmarket) http://www.howestreet.com/fbn/interview.php?fbnId=52


    Ian Gordon (Kontratieff Waves & Winter) http://www.howestreet.com/fbn/interview.php?fbnId=53


    Worth to watch and listen guys. ;)


    Gruss


    Eldorado

  • Das neue Südafrika

    steph


    Sorry, aber da kann Dr. Rath auch nicht viel helfen die brutale Realitaet ist so wie beschrieben. That's Africa, ein Fass ohne Boden wo Korruption herrscht.
    Die Katastrophe kann und wird man nicht aufhalten koennen.
    Fuer einige ist diese Situation profitabel, leider ist es so.


    Die schwarzen koennen ansich nur die Hand aufhalten, das ist das Problem das noch dazu kommt, wie reine Verbraucher werden die wie mit Smarties auch mit den Tabletten umgehen.


    Von Kondom halten die wenigsten etwas und in den Nachbarstaaten liegen sie bereits auf der Strasse beim sterben und es kuemmert sich kein Schwein in diesen Staaten.


    Wenn die weissen draussen sind hauen sie sich meistens selber den Schaedel ein mit Diktatur die Demokratie heisst speziell wenn sie die Ratschlaege der Drahtzieher befolgen.


    Selten ein Nachteil ohne Vorteil sagt man..


    Cést la vie... Africa !


    Russian Roulette or AK47 Kalashnikov , hier gibts alles.


    Aber die Landschaft ist schoen, die haelt einen irgendwie. :))
    Die gute Luft auch,der Wind geht einen aber auf den Wecker.


    Der schoenste Friedhof der Welt , leider mit den falschen Menschen die nicht ins Bild passen. (Vielleicht gehoere ich auch dazu ??)


    Selbst wenn du Geld hast,da ist eigentlich nur Natur was einen haelt, die Leute bestimmt nicht, die sind meistens deprimiert oder lassen sich scheiden, trotz dem schoenen Haus und Leben am Kap.


    Hier lachen oder laecheln wenige, wo anders hat man mehr Spass als hier habe ich festgestellt in meinen Reisen.


    Der schoenste Fleck auf der Welt ist nicht komplett.


    Setze deinen Fuss in den Atlantik und dir friern die Haxen ab.
    Mache mal eine Protea auf und schau was da fuer ein Ungeziefer rauskommt, dann siehst du die erste Taeuschung und Illusion von Kapstadt. You can't have it all ! :D


    Truth or Illusion, always the same.


    Gnight from Slaapstadt.. 8)



    XEX

  • Achtung Gold vor Verkaufssignal

    @ nostradamus


    Bevor die Verbindung nun abricht dachte ich schon das du kneifst und den Schwanz einziehst, mit.... ""die Wette war nicht von mir"". ;(
    Welche Performance/Investments hast du eigentlich ?


    ZERO !!.... wenn du mich fragst.


    Ciao, over and out of communication, ich befolge nun die Ratschlaege von einigen Mitgliedern hier.


    XEX

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Kann sein das die ganzen ETF's und Gold's ein riesen Beschiss werden in der Zukunft. Falls der Staat Gold beschlagnahmt sind die am ersten dran.
    Ich halte lieber physisch als ein papier claim. Ich habe zwar ein paar aber ich traue der sache nicht ganz, wieder ein versprechen, sonst nichts.
    Wer weiss ob die wirklich 100% gedeckt sind ???... Der Bande traue ich alles zu, Amigos.