Beiträge von Eldorado

  • Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI

    05. April 2005 Goldminenaktien streben auf einen Punkt zu, an dem sie für langfristig orientierte Anleger wieder interessant werden könnten. Die neue, von der Erholung des amerikanischen Dollar ausgehende Schwäche des Goldpreises drückt auf die Kurse dieser Titel und läßt die Skepsis gegenüber der Branche wachsen. Doch gerade eine solche Stimmung erscheint antizyklisch vorgehenden und damit über den Tag hinausdenkenden Anlegern günstig, das zu kaufen, was die Masse abstoßen will.



    Sie wissen aus Erfahrung ?(, daß hochwertige Goldminentitel schon als Schutz vor monetären und politischen Risiken in ein ausgewogenes, langfristig ausgerichtetes Aktienportefeuille gehören, mal in ihrer Eigenschaft als Stabilisator, mal als Turbo für die Gesamtrendite.


    Scharfer Einbruch zu Ende


    Goldminenaktien hatten im vergangenen Jahr eine große Zeit, als der Index für Gold- und Silberproduzenten der Philadelphia Stock Exchange (XAU) zwischen Anfang Mai und Ende Dezember von 76,79 Punkten auf den Rekord von 111,50 stieg. Zuletzt bewegte er sich bei rund 92 Punkten und damit in einer Art Niemandsland. Der XAU ist der inzwischen am meisten beachtete Index. Er enthält 13 Aktien: Agnico Eagle Mines, Anglogold Ashanti, Barrick Gold, Freeport-McMoRan Copper&Gold, Glamis, Goldcorp, Goldfields, Harmony Gold Mining, Kinross Gold, Meridian Gold, Newmont Mining, Placer Dome sowie Pan American Silver.


    Der zurückliegende Run der Anleger auf Goldminenwerte war zu einem guten Teil technisch-zyklischer Natur. Er folgte einem scharfen Einbruch, der sich im März und April 2004 einstellte. Vor der Liquidationswelle waren institutionelle und private Anleger offenbar in Erwartung weiterer steiler Preissteigerungen bei Gold übermäßig stark in dieser Branche engagiert - damit galt der Sektor als „over-owned”.


    Erschwerte Analysen


    Der Liquidationswelle folgt ein neuer, breit gestreuter Aufbau von Engagements, der im November endete, als wieder in Massen liquidiert wurde. Dieser Prozeß ist dem Urteil von Analysten zufolge inzwischen aber so weit fortgeschritten, daß von einer zu gewichtigen Präsenz der Goldminenaktien in den institutionellen und den privaten Portefeuilles nicht mehr gesprochen werden könne. Folglich mehren sich seitens technisch orientierter Analysten die Empfehlungen, diesem Sektor wieder mehr Beachtung zu schenken.


    Ein wesentlicher Grund für die über die Jahre hinweg beobachtete Verlagerung des Interesses von breit gestreuten Indizes für Goldminenaktien wie dem einschlägigen Index der „Financial Times” (All Gold Mines) auf den XAU oder den Goldminenindex der American Stock Exchange (Amex Gold Bugs) ist die bessere Kalkulierbarkeit letzterer. Bei allen anderen, also den regionalen wie südafrikanischen oder australischen, erschweren die Wechselkursveränderungen die Analyse.


    Der Währungseffekt


    Als einschneidendstes Merkmal gilt, daß die südafrikanischen und die australischen Goldproduzenten wegen der zurückliegenden starken Aufwertung ihrer Landeswährungen gegenüber dem amerikanischen Dollar außerordentlichen Belastungen ausgesetzt sind. Ihre Erlöse verringern sich in der heimischen Währung, während ihre Kosten auf dem jeweiligen Markt steigen. Bei in amerikanischen Dollar rechnenden Minengesellschaften entfällt der Währungseffekt.


    Traditionell versuchen Goldproduzenten Phasen niedriger Preise oder geringer Erlöse zu entgehen, indem sie Vorkommen mit möglichst hohem Goldgehalt abbauen. Sind der Preis hoch und die Erlöse zufriedenstellend, gehen sie Vorkommen mit geringem Goldgehalt im gesamten Gestein an. Voraussetzung für eine derart flexible Produktionspolitik ist jedoch, daß ausreichend Vorkommen zur Verfügung stehen, um von Fall zu Fall wählen zu können. Da die Kostenbelastung besonders südafrikanischer Minengesellschaften seit geraumer Zeit sehr hoch ist, mangelt es an finanziellen Mitteln zur Erforschung und Erschließung neuer Vorkommen.


    Keine Planungssicherheit
    Eine zusätzliche Belastung stellt der sich über Jahre erstreckende Vorlauf für Planung und Entwicklung gegenüber der Produktionsreife neuer Lagerstätten dar. Die Goldminengesellschaften können zu Beginn ihrer Planungsarbeiten nicht wissen, welche Erlöse sie erzielen, wenn die Förderung von Gold aus neuen Bergwerken einsetzt.


    Dies hängt auch mit Eigenheiten des Goldmarktes zusammen. So umfassen die bereits physisch vorhandenen Goldmengen unter anderem bei Notenbanken die Goldproduktion von Jahrzehnten. Damit schwebt beständig latentes Angebot über dem Markt, dessen Erscheinen kaum berechenbar ist. Die vielen Unwägbarkeiten und der Kapitalmangel haben schon vor Jahren einen breit gestreuten Prozeß von Fusionen und Übernahmen unter Goldproduzenten in Gang gesetzt, der nicht abgeschlossen ist. Dies verleiht Minenaktien zudem noch Übernahmephantasie.



    More mergers and konsolidations are coming ! XEX 8)
    With the juniors !!!!

  • Schnäppchen Eck..welche Aktie ist preiswert im Moment

    @ tschonko ;) thanks!


    Ist schoen wenn man ein wenig spass hat in schlechten zeiten fuer bullreiter. I got your message about MGN,ich sichere erstmal ab und pass dann auf das ich mit dem rest nicht ins minus laufe.
    Watch the price and volume tonight ! (hoffe mein limit geht durch)


    Viel glueck cowboys, auch beim fischen ! ;)


    Ich wuerde mich schon festhalten bei der dolly auf den Bullen, aber nicht am sattel ! :D


    XEX 8)

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    Barometerlesung bitte ! :rolleyes:


    MGN


    Wenn man das N fuer Naturschutz wegnimmt dann koennten die ein MG Spitfire sein,der Governor von Montana begruesst das project aber was werden die Naturschutzaktivisten dagegen machen. ?(
    Sollte man voruebergehend erstmal sichern und spaeter wieder rein nach dem die sache irgendwie geregelt ist.?
    Dachte an haelfte weg und den rest bei +/- null, ebenso verkaufen.


    Eure meinung ???


    Gruss


    Eldorado

  • Pan American Silver Corp./ PAAS (NASDAQ)

    valueman


    Ja, MGN macht mir auch sorgen,man weiss nie was da raus kommt.
    I hate cliffhangers like DRD, but I'm crazy and play them.
    Eine gute Idee ist es schon MGN gegen SSRI oder IMA zu tauschen.
    Mit PAAS und SPM bin ich mir nicht so sicher. SPM da muss erst mal ein eindeutiger beweis nach oben kommen. PAAS ist zwar gut aber ich denke die anderen sind z.Zt. preiswerter. What about CDE,its cheap !
    Vielleicht mache ich den wechsel auch, ich ueberlege mir es jedenfalls.


    Ciao


    XEX

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Tuesday, April 05, 2005, 10:28:00 PM EST


    Gold and Dollar Market Summary


    Author: Jim Sinclair


    Dear CIGA:


    The slowest car crash in history hit the fan today - perhaps even twice!


    Now the item to look at is the condition of the obligations on retirements which will inure to you. Yes, you will have to pay all those unfunded or under-funded retirement accounts because the funds will come from the expansion of federal debt.


    Now there is another nail in the dollar’s coffin, so if you are bullish on the dollar longer term you are wealthy short term.


    GM Debt Ratings Lowered by Moody's; Ford Under Review (Update5)


    April 5 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp.'s debt ratings were cut one level to Baa3, the lowest investment grade, by Moody's Investors Service. The ratings company also said it was reviewing Ford Motor Co.'s debt for a possible downgrade.


    Moody's today said Ford and GM, two of the world's five- biggest bond-market borrowers, are both losing U.S. auto-market share while health-care costs are growing, pushing profits lower. Moody's began reviewing GM's ratings on March 16, when the automaker forecast its biggest quarterly loss since 1992.


    ``What Moody's did today is publicly state that they're concerned abut the state of the North American auto industry,'' says Sasha Kamper, who helps manage $65 billion, including GM and Ford debt, at Principal Global Investors in Des Moines, Iowa. ``GM's rating move was widely anticipated. I think the market might have been a little surprised that they were so quick to act on Ford since there was no new news on Ford.''


    More…


    There is nothing that the Federal Reserve can do to offset the inflationary implication of the historic level of oil prices except to talk oil down.


    Thanks to Goldman’s report saying that it is possible for crude to trade at $105 and Merrill’s report today that a major bubble could develop in energy, the Fed Chairman came out of his closet saying that the market itself will remedy the situation. Of course the market will do it because there isn’t anything you can do.


    Increased interest rates are simply an inflationary ingredient as it increases business costs. At the same time, it is a tax on consumers as are higher oil prices. The result of increased interest rates now is to blow the Federal Budget deficit straight to the moon.


    So you are between a rock and a hard place that the Fed created itself with the use of non-traditional tools to fight deflation. You were successful for sure, but now inflation beyond your wildest fears is coming down the track like a run away locomotive heading straight at the US dollar. Mr. Chairman, the light at the end of the tunnel is in fact a train. 8o 8o 8o

  • Das neue Südafrika

    Rand runs on exporter $ sales
    Apr 06 2005 09:22:11:240AM Alison Maltz


    Bonds follow rand firmer


    Johannesburg - The rand was trading at its best level against the dollar in two weeks in early trade on Wednesday, boosted by exporter dollar sales in a thin market.
    Currency traders expected a fairly range bound day from here, with the local unit looking to the euro for direction.


    At 08:45, the rand was quoted at R6.1176/US$ from an overnight close of R6.1951. It was quoted at R7.8749 to the euro from a previous R7.9515 and at R11.5290 against sterling from Tuesday's R11.6430.


    The euro was quoted at $1.2890 from $1.2852 late on Tuesday, while gold was quoted at $425.55 a troy ounce from a previous $424.75/oz.


    "We saw lovely local exporters just above the 6.15 level who gave the rand a smack lower (stronger)," a currency trader said.


    He added that the move had occurred at around 07:40 before the local market opened.


    The trader said that the exporters appeared to have used more than one bank.


    This, coupled with a thin market, exaggerated the extent of the rand's rally.


    "From here I think the rand will just bounce around. R6.15 should be toppish for the day and maybe the rand will go just below R6.10.


    "It should watch the euro," he concluded.


    The rand tends to follow the euro because the Eurozone is South Africa's largest trading partner.

  • DRDGold Ltd. / DRD (NYSE, JNB) und die Derivate

    Clearly, the liquidation of the North West operations means that the optionality on this production base is now lost to investors,” said Merrill Lynch analyst David Hall in a note published last month.


    However, “this action means that DRDGOLD can continue as a going concern and effectively cuts their cash costs by $80/oz, down to about $310/oz”.

  • Das neue Südafrika

    Gold quarterlies to paint lacklustre picture for SA miners
    John Fraser





    AS SA’s main gold producers prepare their quarterly reports for the three months to March, mining analysts are expecting to see evidence of more pain in the sector.


    The strong rand has continued to play havoc with local producers, with marginal shafts losing money, and some being forced to close.


    The rand remained strong for most of the March quarter, given a lower average rand gold price of about R82000/kg, down from just under R85000/kg in the December quarter.


    In addition to this, the March quarter is traditionally the worst of the year, as it includes the period of the Christmas and New Year break, when mines are shut and production ceases.


    “I can’t think there will be much good news,” said a Johannesburg-based gold analyst yesterday.


    He said the big three producers — AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Harmony — would all be reporting financial data, while SA’s fourth-largest gold producer, DRDGOLD, would release limited data related to production, not finances.


    “Typically, production is down in the March quarter because of the days lost to the holidays, and getting back to full output,” the analyst said.


    “We can expect to see a fall in production for the last quarter of 8%-10%, and that’s not good.”


    Normal seasonal problems have been compounded by industrial action — this had mainly been targeted at Harmony, with a brief dispute involving Gold Fields.


    DRDGOLD has endured the most dramatic quarter, having liquidated its North West operations near Klerksdorp, slashing its local output in half.


    “Clearly, the liquidation of the North West operations means that the optionality on this production base is now lost to investors,” said Merrill Lynch analyst David Hall in a note published last month.


    However, “this action means that DRDGOLD can continue as a going concern and effectively cuts their cash costs by $80/oz, down to about $310/oz”.


    “The smaller company will now produce around 480000oz/year of gold (excluding the Crown Recoveries operation) of which 66% comes from international operations.”


    Another analyst said Gold Fields and Harmony were continuing to spend big money related to the hostile takeover bid by Harmony for its rival — on lawyers, merchant bankers and spin doctors.


    “This will boost their corporate costs — and Harmony has also been spending on restructuring, including retrenchments,” he said.


    The analyst said it would also be interesting to see how all the South African gold producers were doing from their non-South African assets, which can be far more profitable, as they tend to be dollar-based, and the gold price has done well in dollar terms.


    “I will be looking to see what progress AngloGold Ashanti is making in turning around the former Ashanti assets, in particular.”


    Another analyst said while the rand gold price has improved in recent weeks, as the dollar weakened, the effect of this on the last quarter would not be large “as the weakening of the rand came too late to have a major impact on revenues. But, looking forward, things might be getting a bit more comfortable for South African gold producers.”


    However, cost inflation has continued to have an effect, particularly with the rise in oil prices and robust steel prices.



    All major mining companies have been hard at work on cost-cutting efforts, and further details of progress is likely to be given with the quarterly results reports.


    AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony and Gold Fields are all due to report in the week of April 25, with DRDGOLD’s production report expected at the end of the previous week.

  • Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI

    Harmony strike over
    Apr 06 2005 08:55:24:847AM


    Johannesburg - After protracted negotiations, the strike by the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) at Harmony's Free State operations would be called off by Wednesday night.
    The Harmony gold strike by 21 000 mineworkers in the Free State, which has moved into its second week, drew to a close after the parties have reached an agreement in principle that the issues in dispute had been adequately addressed.


    An agreement would be signed later on Wednesday, Harmony's Ferdie Dippenaar said in statement.


    "Employees at the original Harmony and Freegold operations would return to work with the night shift on Wednesday, April 6," he added.


    The strike which would have lasted eight working days cost the company about 45 000 oz in lost production, equating to about $18m in lost revenue, Dippenaar's statement added.


    NUM general-secretary Gwede Mantashe said mine management and union leaders stepped in after local negotiators had reached an impasse.


    "We saw it fit to intervene because our experience has taught us that lengthy strikes of this nature have a potential of impairing relationships," Mantashe said.


    "We also thought that the negotiations had reached a point where attitudes were hardening on both sides, making it difficult for parties to focus on the real issues", he added.


    He said the union leadership and Harmony management had put together a framework agreement on the disputed issues which had led to the strike.


    The issues included replacement of deceased employees, short payment, racism, housing, healthcare, and training as well as the mining charter.


    Mantashe said both parties had gone through painstaking deliberations in order to arrive at the framework agreement.

  • Das neue Südafrika

    Mining firms, unions prepare for wage war April 6, 2005


    By Eric Onstad


    The local gold sector, the world's biggest, faces escalating labour unrest as tenacious unions and profit-squeezed companies spar ahead of crucial wage talks.


    Fund managers say they are shying away from the sector since talks for a wage contract that kicks in from July are likely to result in a bitter and costly industry-wide strike.


    Recent labour action at Gold Fields and Harmony Gold gave both sides a chance to show their resolve.


    A company-wide strike at Gold Fields fell apart last week after a court banned it, but 20 000 miners at Harmony are still off the job.


    "I think it bodes very badly for the gold industry as a whole because ahead of the actual formal negotiations it seems to me that unions are flexing their muscles," said fund manager Patrice Rassou of Old Mutual Asset Managers.


    Unions have the same perception about the companies.


    "From the recent Harmony and Gold Fields strikes, it appears there is a hard line emerging" from the companies, said Moferefere Lekorotsoana, a spokesperson for the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM). "I think they want us to get tired, give up faith before the negotiations."


    Sweeping wage and benefit negotiations, held every two years, are due to start with preliminary contacts later this month, gathering steam in May and June.


    In 2003 the country's three biggest gold producers - AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Harmony - accepted a 10 percent wage hike for the first year of a two-year pact hours before workers were due to go on strike.


    Workers got a 7 percent rise for the second year, which turned out to be nearly double the inflation rate.


    "It's going to be war. There's no way in hell they can give more than an inflation wage increase this time around," said analyst Leon Esterhuizen of Investec Securities.


    Company officials have vowed in recent months to stick to a wage rise not much above inflation.


    The consumer price index excluding mortgages hit a record low of 3.1 percent in February, according to data released last week.


    Mining companies have been hit by a blistering rally in the rand that slashed export earnings, pressuring margins and pushing many operations into the red.


    Analysts say jockeying in the NUM ahead of the retirement next year of general secretary Gwede Mantashe may result in militancy among those vying for the top spot.


    "They need to prove to their members that if they are elected they will be defending their rights. So that makes it more likely they are going to be even more hardened," Rassou said.


    Lekorotsoana confirmed that Mantashe would not stand for another term in May 2006, but dismissed views that this would spur militancy.


    With or without a leadership contest, the NUM would stand up for its members, who had suffered under apartheid and would not accept anything less than the previous settlement, he said.


    The union might also be emboldened after platinum workers went on strike last year, winning wage rises well above inflation, but analysts say gold companies with tighter margins are likely to tough it out longer.


    For investors, the widening gap between the companies and workers is ominous.


    "Unfortunately it's a lose-lose situation if we are going to get into a strike ... In terms of an investment position, I would be very wary at this point of time in terms of investing in the gold sector," Rassou said.