Beiträge von Eldorado

By our "friendly" neighbors to the North.
On or about March 15, 2005, a contract will be signed
between China and Canada that'll change America's oil
outlook forever.

The Canadian government is selling the United States' oil
future down the river.

But while most resource investors will bail out of their
energy positions, you can cash in - by buying grossly
undervalued stock in the ready-to-explode resource giants
that 99% of American investors overlook.

Get in NOW, and you'll be able to afford the $5-a-gallon
gas that's coming - along with a Benz or two to burn it
in...

Unknown

Ohhh, gleich beruehren sich die linien auf der graph !

Ganz objektiv betrachtet !

Das wollen wir aber festhalten bzw.vermerken ! :))

Ich hoffe nicht das sie fallen, und selbst viagra hilft nicht !
Dann koennten ein paar BOOH schreien und sich einen freuen.

Aber wer zu letzt lacht,... lacht am besten !

Schadenfreude ist auch eine Freude und what goes round comes around !.

Damit habe ich jetzt nicht Ulf gemeint, sondern andere, ihr wisst schon !!

Viele menschen sind wie ein staubsauger oder energy thiefs und saugen fuer wissen, sex, und kohle !

Give and take, otherwise f.. off !

Eine Neidgesellschaft habe ich gehoert und gespuert, leider !!......

I'm happy to see the HUI is doing well to hold the 200 line.

I call it a day,an Alan Day !

Das ist naehmlich subjectiv was der macht !

Cheers

XEX

GOLD & INFLATION

by Eric Hommelberg

April 01, 2005

Gold & Inflation is chapter III of the Gold drivers 2005 report. It discusses the possibility of Inflation picking up steam and how it could affect Gold. Signs are surfacing everywhere that inflation is picking up steam indeed. The Producer Price Index remains above the Consumer Price Index for almost two years now which doesn't bode well for the CPI. Rising Oil prices are here to stay and will translate itself into a higher CPI. As long as the FED doesn’t raise interest rates fast enough in order to contain Inflation, real rates will stay negative or extreme low. History suggests that negative/low real rates are on of the strongest drivers for the price of Gold.

This chapter will focus on :

1. Current Inflation numbers reliable ?

2. Future Inflation

3. Higher rates as a result of a dropping dollar good for Gold

4. Negative real rates and Gold

1 - Current Inflation numbers reliable ?

Although official inflation statistics do suggest that inflation is well under control, the opposite seems to be true. Just ask people if they are happy with sky-rocketing food, energy and health care prices and you’ll get an idea. Hedonic adjusted Pentium IV processors won’t cure the pain felt in consumer pockets. Needless to say that over 90% of the American public don’t believe the official inflation statistics and neither does PIMCO’s managing director Bill Gross.

Bill Gross on adjusted inflation numbers :
“Talk about a con job ! The government says that if the quality of a product got better over the last 12 month that it didn’t really go up in price in fact it may have actually gone down! For instance, prices of desktop and notebook computers declined by 8% a year during past decade. The WSJ reports but because the machines computer power and memory have improved, their hedonically adjusted prices have dropped by 25% a year since 1997. No wonder the core is less than 2% with computers dropping that much every year.”

“Actually, to make the case for a government con job, it’s important to point out that the bulk of these hedonic adjustments have come only in the past few years, when it became necessary to buttress Greenspan’s concept of our New Age Economy.”

“Today no less than 46% of the weight of the US CPI comes from products subject to hedonic adjustments. PIMCO calculates that without them they would be between 0.5% and 1.1% higher each year since 1987.” END.

Ok you'll say, the government can mess up with so many goods by means of hedonic adjustments but what about oil and gasoline ? Higher oil/gasoline prices should be reflected in the government PPI/CPI numbers shouldn’t they ? Well, they don't ! The government just reports LOWER oil/gasoline prices instead of the real figures. You don't believe it ?

Bill King (from the King Report) reported in February this year :

The big rally in oil and gasoline is not reflected in the January PPI. BLS actually has energy prices down 1.3% for January, with crude energy prices down 4.5%! Absurd! The below charts show crude oil rallied from the low to high $40 handle; gasoline and heating oil surged while natural gas traded sideways. END.

The next day he continued :

We have been ridiculing the CPI for years. Yesterday’s CPI report is yet another bogus accounting of inflation. Energy prices fell 1.1% after falling 1.3% in December. Gasoline fell 2.1% and heating oil fell 5.2%. Gasoline prices are down 20.2% over the last 3 months annualized. Food & beverage prices fell 4.6% in the CPI-U (Urban) table while fuels fell 4.9%. Public transportation prices fell 0.8%. You saw the energy charts in yesterday’s missive. This is absurd.

Absurd indeed when the following Headline appears in the media :

US gasoline price breaks $2 a gallon, AAA says

the U.S. government projected that gasoline prices will hit a new record high this spring, reaching a national monthly average of $2.15 a gallon. END.

Well, they didn't have to wait for long :

Gasoline prices hit nationwide record
Fri Mar 18, 6:13 AM ET

Gasoline hit a record nationwide average price of $2.055 a gallon, motorist club AAA reported Thursday, creeping up 0.2 of a cent overnight to eclipse the previous high of $2.054 last May. END.

So we have a government here projecting record high gasoline prices although they are trending down according to their own PPI/CPI statistics. To make things even more absurd just take a look at the table shown below posted at LemetropoleCafe.com. It displays the actual monthly average prices vs the Government reported prices.

Well, this table says it all, the government doesn't report the real numbers but LOWER ! They do that in order to keep inflation rates low, it's as simple as that !

Conclusion : Inflation is actually higher than reported.
Another expert agreeing with this thesis is professor Campbell R. Harvey (Duke University)

Prof Campbell R. Harvey :
March 23, 2005

"I believe we have a more serious inflation problem than is widely acknowledged in the market," says Harvey.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), an indicator of wholesale prices, has been running above the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since March 2003.

"This is ominous," Harvey said. "On a year-over-year basis, the PPI exceeded the CPI in 2000, 1989, 1978 and the last half of 1972. When this happened over a sustained period, a recession has followed."

"The economic story is straightforward. The PPI is an advance indicator of consumer price inflation. It takes a while for the prices of production goods to work their way through the system and into consumer prices. The high PPI indicates substantially higher consumer price inflation in the future," Harvey said. END.

So we have higher Inflation than reported by government but for what reason inflation must reported lower than actual ?
Bill Gross :

“Alan Greenspan has a dual prerogative at the Federal Reserve. He is charged with keeping inflation low and economic output high. The magic of hedonic/substitution adjustments keeps both of these birds flyin’ at the same time, one under the magical 2% radar, which marks the dividing line between benign and worrisome inflation , and the other (real GDP), over the hurdle of 3% which suggest the continuation of high productivity. “

“My sense is that the CPI is really 1% higher than the official numbers and that GDP is 1% less. You’re witnessing a ‘haute con job’”.!!

END

Despite all the hedonic adjustments Inflation is getting noticed these days :

Manufacturers hike prices to offset commodity costs
NEW YORK, (Reuters) - Industrial manufacturers, who until recently footed the bill for high raw material costs, took advantage of surging demand to pass along the increase to their customers during the second quarter.

U.S. stocks to open lower as inflation data weighs
Tuesday November 16, 9:06 am ET

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stock futures are indicating a lower open Tuesday as broadly positive third quarter results from a slew of retailers including Wal-Mart and Home Depot, were offset by concern over a surge in October wholesale inflation to its fastest rate in 14 years.END.

Hopefully its just a 3 $ Rule, it looks like that for the rest of the session.

Anyway, don't run away and hang in, or on the horse !.

I switch off and I'm out of here, for today.

Next week is another week !

Enjoy your weekend

Vaya condios , XEX

Thu, 31 Mar 2005

Fed Bashing

Inflation - what is it? "Why, it's an increase of the money supply and thus a rise in prices of course!"

Not really.

The way we perceive money is the way the Fed and the Government want us to perceive money. Think about it. The value of your home hasn't changed one bit. Nor has the value of gold, silver, steel, jewelery, milk, or oil. So what has changed? Your money! Your trips to the gas station aren't costing you more, your dollar is worth less and less! Your grocery bill didn't skyrocket because cows suddenly started producing less milk and chickens fewer eggs - it went up because your unit of trade has lost standing. This is not a new phenomenon - it has been steadily occurring since the early 20th century when the Fed was created. Are we to believe that somehow (magic perhaps?) the intrinsic value of an acre of land has increased from $1.25 in 1820 (Reference) to $300 today? That's the low end - good land can go for thousands an acre - and let's not even get into what it costs in a city such as New York! Is the earth in such short supply that it's value has increased more than 300-fold (remember: LOW END!) in the last 200 years? No! It is a lie. A big fat lie designed to keep us (the masses) ignorant and powerless.

Yes ladies and gentlemen, this is the pinnacle of the scheme bestowed upon us by the wealthy elite. While they accumulate more and more assets that hold true value (land, oil, art, precious metals) we plebians are fooled into accumulating pieces of paper with a net worth of ZERO. The dollar is worth nothing - it is simply a unit of exchange used to get things with intrinsic value! Same with the Euro, the Yen, the Yuan, the Ruble and every other fiat currency on the planet.

So how is this not fair? It's difficult to wrap your head around the ramifications of such a setup on a global scale. Let's take it down a notch.

Let's say we have 2 people who trade with one another - one of them provides beef, the other grain. When these two people trade, they exchange an item of worth. Perhaps one pound of beef for 2 pounds of grain. But what if the grain famer has enough beef for the moment, yet the other fellow still needs grain right away? To pass this obstacle the two agree that an IOU will be sufficient. That the grain famer will provide grain in exchange for a note from the rancher stating, "This IOU is good for XXX amount of beef on any date." Ah! Problem solved! But now let's introduce 100 other people into this circle - - all of a sudden no one can keep track of the IOU's from all the different people involved. Some are forged, some are lost - arguments break out all around. Now, let's bring in Mr. Sleaze. Mr. Sleaze shows up one day and claims to have the answer to all of their problems. "A common unit of exchange! One piece of paper will be backed by one pound of beef, thus allowing everyone to gauge the approximate value in relation to what they are trading!" So now the grain famer knows that he should charge one of these notes for every 2 pounds of grain. Still with me? Good - here's where it gets interesting.

After several years pass and the group has become accustomed to the new unit of exchange (we'll call it "The Sucker"), Mr. Sleaze starts to prey on the poor. He offers to loan them some Suckers to buy the things they need with the understanding that they must pay him back or he will take something of value such as their home. Well of course, the poor rarely emerge up from the problems they are mired in, so inevitably Mr. Sleaze finds himself the owner of several new homes. And what price did he pay? The cost of a few pieces of paper that he printed up to supply the loan. He is able to do so because he presumes that no one will actually attempt to redeem these notes for beef from him, they will spend their Suckers elsewhere. The ownership of all of these assets soon places him in a position of authority. With such a profitable business (for this has cost him absolutely nothing...he's doing these people a FAVOR, remember?) and a rise to power, Mr. Sleaze decides to expand by bringing a few people in on the secret. He sends them out to introduce The Sucker to other communities in need. However, these neophytes are not nearly so good at business as he is, and soon there is a steep drop of confidence in The Sucker. The people flock to Mr. Sleaze and demand to redeem their suckers for beef, since that's what they are backed by after all. Sensing the impending collapse of his scheme, Mr. Sleaze uses his authority to declare beef illegal. He then calms the people by giving out virtually interest-free loans. Since the people now have a long history with this form of currency, they are blinded by their greed - "With this new loan I can buy so much land the naked eye won't be able to see the end of it, and all it will cost me is a bag of grain a month for 5 years!" Of course, Mr. Sleaze will have to create new Suckers out of nothing in order to make these loans. This increases the supply of Suckers which in turn causes the people to get into price wars, "I'll pay you TWICE what he's offering! I really need that grain!", thus causing the number of Suckers required for a given item to increase without the value of the item actually increasing. The Sucker has lost value simply due to the number of them in circulation.

So what do we have? We have a crook who provides Suckers for the masses and is paid in real, hard assets in exchange. This is what the Fed and the goverment are doing right now.

We are tricked into believing that by purchasing a $250,000 house with $25,000 down that we own it. We do not. The bank owns the asset and has put you into slavery for the next 30 years trying to pay off the principal and interest which actually amount to closer to $500,000! Do you think the wealthy have to worry about such things? Of course not! So long as the "serfs" do not demand a share of the things that truly have value, the elite can simply ride on the back of the interest payments on the loans they so "generously" provide!

So, as the smartest (and most beautiful) woman I know put it, "What's your point?" It is simply this - - you are being robbed. Slowly but steadily, the value of your money is being eroded whilst the value of the things you need (food, gas, housing) remains constant. Have your wages increased as much percentage-wise as milk and oil have over the last several years? No? Then you are now officially "poorer" than you were then. Your house is not worth more, it is worth exactly the same as when you bought it - the value of the currency has fallen. Inflation today is not because of a shortage of the things you need, but a long-standing Sucker Scheme that robs you of the very things you work so hard for.

What are we to do about it? Reject fiat. Yes, I know - you need some cash, it's just the way the world works right now. But someday the scheme will end, for nothing lasts forever. When that day comes, do you want to be holding gold, silver and land, or a checkbook that says you have 500,000 worthless pieces of paper?

Think about it.

@ tschonko

Sieht heute so aus das sich Clifton ebenfalls erholt nach dem hupfer von Dumont gestern. Gestern schnappte sie Dumont, heute Clifton.
Hat anscheinend irgend etwas mit dem Kiwit projekt zu tun und Insider kaufen. (Reine Vermutung !)

Uhh, heute haut das cartel wieder drauf !

Ciao Tschonko, lese auch mal spica.

XEX

Is Alan Greenspan now between a rock and a hard place?

Ceri Shepherd

It seems to me that as time goes by, Alan Greenspan is backing himself into a corner he is rapidly running out of options. He famously quoted that he relished the chance to be able to fight a Kondratiev winter, personally I felt this was somewhat of a rash statement as fighting the tides of history, is always going to be fraught with danger and eventually failure.

What has he achieved these last few years? Since 1995 he created the largest stock market bubble the world has ever seen. He stated that it is very difficult to identify a "bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark) until after the event. I would suggest that when basic valuation metrics such as the PE ratio climbs to stratospheric historic heights. When the chart of the major indices becomes obviously parabolic, and when major index gains were in the region of 30% to 40% annually a detective would have deduced that we were probably in an unsustainable "bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark).

The inevitable bust has now created a new Alan Greenspan "bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark) in the housing market which has all the hallmarks of the stockmarket "bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark). FACT: prices are running way ahead of incomes and rental values and the direct material replacement cost of building a house. FACT: The graph is looking parabolic. Mr Greenspan if you are finding it difficult to yet again identify this "Bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark) I will try and help you

IT IS A BUBBLE ALAN! $$$$$$$$

Today the 6 $ rule again ?

The thugs always pitch after the opening bell.

Or just before the closing bell.

They are desperate and will eventually lose in time.

I knew it, see above.

Don't panic ! , cheers

Eldorado

@option69

@ option63

Who are you ???

Male or female ?

Please go back to your camp !

Das schoene ist das man auf dauer nicht manipulieren kann, egal was !
Den kommentar dafuer kannst du bei GATA lesen.

Thank you and bye, bye

You may turn your back again.

regards

Eldorado

South Africa can not employ more people in low-skilled sectors as long as there was a minimum wage and countries such as India and China were prepared to pay workers less. This will eventually increase poverty and social unrest and strikes. Social unrest will disturb and hurt mining companies and shareholder value. There might be a new revolution, black against black on the arising. !!!
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Die asiaten lernen mehr und schneller, bei uns vergessen die meisten neger was man ihnen gestern gezeigt hat. Die meisten fuer morgen nichts planen oder irgendwelche sicherheit schaffen. Today is the day 8), tomorrow is a new day,... hopefully !

To educate Afrika, will take another 100 years,maybe never !

IMHO

NO OFFENSE !!

Mfg

Eldorado

Rand action threat- govt calm 29/03/2005 20:31 - (SA)

Government will continue to consult with business and labour to overcome unemployment and increase investment in spite of a threat by the Cosatu to strike against unemployment and the strong rand.

In a calm reaction to the Cosatu threat, government spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe said the process of consultation was continuing.

Cosatu has warned of a "job-loss bloodbath", saying spiralling unemployment was already behind unrest in poorer townships.
"We are finalising some of the economic programmes for this year, especially through our consultations in the Presidential working groups," said Netshitenzhe.

The SA Chamber of Business (Sacob) said it did not support Cosatu's approach to resort to industrial action and the DA called it "illogical".

"Many of their 'demands' will worsen unemployment, while strike action itself will further deter investors from establishing job-creating operations in South Africa," said DA finance spokesman Ian Davidson.

Sacob called for a solution to the problem "through proper dialogue through the correct channels, in which the determinant of the rand's value through market forces must not be disregarded."

"The chamber is well aware that many businesses are under serious pressure from circumstances associated with the current strength of the rand," said Sacob spokesman Bill Lacey in a statement.

It also suggested that a further liberalisation of exchange control might provide one possible option.

Cosatu spokesman Patrick Craven told Sapa no dates had been set for the strike. However, the union body would "definitely be mobilising among all members, especially among mining and textile workers.

"If we see a serious move on behalf of business to cancel retrenchments that have already been announced - that would be progress."

A Cosatu statement over Easter weekend called on the government to declare a state of emergency regarding job losses. It also called for strong measures be taken to end the overvaluation of the rand, especially through a reduction in the real interest rate.

The DA called the interest rate demand "ridiculous", saying it showed "an alarming misunderstanding of the reality of monetary policy in South Africa".

Econometrix chief economist Azar Jammine said: "I do share Cosatu's concern about the high rand causing people to lose jobs.

"But the trend of the world and South Africa has been more and more towards high-tech and knowledge-intense activities."

He said labour-intensive sectors such as mining, manufacturing and agriculture were worst hit in the climate of unbalanced economic growth performance driven by a strong rand and reduced pressure on interest rates.

"Tough as it is for Cosatu", South Africa could not employ more people in these low-skilled sectors as long as there was a minimum wage and countries such as India and China were prepared to pay workers less, said Jammine.

AUF NACH CHINA !

Subjektive,objektive,relative,negative,.......unsw.

ist auch eine meinung !

Ach ihr Deutschen !

Wollt immer alles ganz genau wissen und machen.

No offence !

XEX

you bet !

hpopth

Ich weiss nur das der fed und das cartel mit allen tricks versucht um den dollar hoch zu halten. Welchen kurzfristigen Effekt das auf gold/silber haben wird kann ich leider nicht sagen. Ich hoffe die schmeissen mich nicht aus dem sattel, die saubuam !

Ciao

Eldo

Sorry I have no news,but I think the share is rock bottom.

mfg

Eldo

Fuer mich sieht es so aus das sich jetzt bereits druck gegen silber und gold aufbaut bevor beim Dow Jones die glocke laeutet.
Es wird ein interessanter 1.April der eine neue richtung zeigen wird.

Good luck to all !

mfg

Eldorado

gogh

Was die kebble's machen oder nicht ist mir egal da ich fast keine kohle bei denen angelegt habe. Sicher hast du recht mit deiner entflechtung von JCI/DRD aber sie sind von haus auf nicht kosher !
Die sind mafiosi und die meinung habe ich ueber sie, und behalte sie auch. Das ist alles !
Ohne irgendwelchen rassismus, don't trust a jew, a hindu, and a muslim,... if you are not one of them !
Bevor die posaunen von jericho erklingen spricht sich das laengst vorher in den synagogen um, wo hauptsaechlich business besprochen wird.
Die halten zusammen und spielen sich erst gegenseitig die baelle zu.
Die haben einen sogenannten code of conduct, den wir leider nicht haben. Den letzten beissen dann die hunde X(, aber die meisten von denen habe die posaunen vorher gehoert. Zum groessten teil ist die ganze wirtschaft hier in ihren haenden und die meisten sind landlords die gut dabei verdienen...... Just watch out, buddy !

I wish you luck !

Ciao

XEX

Hi

Traps for RSA

Ich habe gestern erfahren das eine deutsche firma hier die modersten geschwindigkeitsmesser und cameras aufgestellt hat mit einem neuen deal der einerzeits diese gratis aufstellt und wartet sowie das die firma dafuer 40% von den strafen die bezahlt werden davon bekommt.
Die schwarzen die in blechhuetten wohnen zahlen bestimmt keine strafe da es kein meldegesetz und TUV gibt. Den gibt es nur bei Eigentuemerwechsel und die meisten fahren ohne fuehrerschein herum.
Ebenso braucht man nur Kraftfahrzeugssteuer jaehrlich bezahlen und man braucht keine haftpflicht versicherung in diesen land. Der einzige schutz dagegen ist eine vollkasko. Sonst sagt der neger, sorry and bye, bye !

Arms for RSA (Backhand deals ??)

'Arms offsets R5bn off target'
01/04/2005 11:51 - (SA)

Johannesburg - South Africa's industrial offset programme relating to the country's multi-billion rand arm deal has come under fire from the official opposition - with the focus falling on Ferrostaal for allegedly not achieving nearly 70% of its commitment.
The Democratic Alliance is calling for the Minister of Trade and Industry, Mandisi Mphalwa, to impose penalties on 3 of 5 corporations involved in the arms deal.

Included in the arms deal is the purchase of 4 corvettes from the German Frigate Consortium, 3 submarines from Ferrostaal, 28 Gripen fighters from BAE/SAAB, 24 Hawk jet trainers from BAE and 25 light utility helicopters from Agusta. Thales is involved in the provision of the weapons system for the corvettes.

Ferrostaal, which represents the German Submarine Consortium, has not provided R4bn in investments in terms of its offset commitments, claims shadow trade and industry minister Enyinna Nkem-Abonta, a Democratic Alliance MP.

He told a news conference at parliament that BAE/SAAB and Thales were also defaulting on their offset obligations - to a combined value of some R5bn.

"The 1999 arms deal was signed on the condition that the international contractors benefiting from the procurement would direct specified amounts of investment to South Africa as part of the National Industrial Participation programme. All of the contractors also agreed to specific sales commitments that would form part of their offset contracts.

Penalties

"The estimated penalty that can be imposed for this shortfall is R136m (for Ferrostaal)," said Nkem-Abonta. In addition BAE/SAAB's shortfall was R845m or 6% of its obligation "with an estimated penalty of R315m. Thales' shortfall is R263m or 15% "with an estimated penalty of R93m".

Drawn from official documents Ferrostaal has invested just €220m (about R1.7bn) in offsets compared to the €720m (about R5.8bn) pledged by the end of 2004. It had created just 297 jobs.

Its total obligation is about R24bn by 2007 with a contract value of R8.2bn for the provision of submarines.

BAE/SAAB had meant to invest and be involved in procurement sales to South African companies to the tune of $2.3bn (about R14bn) - including $300m in investment and $2bn in procurement sales.

In fact by April 2004 this had reached US$2.16 billion (about R13.4bn), including $300 million in investments and $18.6 billion in sales. This was a shortfall of about $134m or about R840m - or about 6% of offset obligation as at April last year.

Thales was down 15% on obligations by the first milestone or by about R260m (US$41.7m) by April 2003 - the latest figures available.

However, Agusta had achieved its first offset milestone in April 2004 of $42.6 million (R265m) and Thyssen Krupp (German Frigate Consortium) had achieved its first milestone of $56.5 million (R352m) while for procurement sales but the assessment for $147 million (R916m) for its offset investments is to be carried out this year.

The total offset obligation so far was R23.5bn of which ... R17.5bn has been forthcoming, say DA researcher Tim Harris. These figures do not include the offset investments of Thyssen Krupp.

@go

Schade, ich sehe es jedoch umgekehrt oder fuehlst du dich angegriffen weil du vielleicht ein wenig uebergewicht hast ?

Ich halte mich jetzt raus und habe meinen senf dazu abgegeben, es ist euer bier ob ihr shake hands macht oder nicht.

Wenn der Schuh passt, dann ziehe ihn an !

Ciao, alter brummbaer !

XEX