....Hugo, Evo, etc.?...soon...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie062008.html
MEXICO ON VERGE OF FAILED STATE
The situation in Mexico continues to deteriorate. As their nation falls further into outright chaos, three key questions arise. 1) What happens to the reliable supply of crude oil to the United States, even as Cantarell sees further decline in oil output? 2) What happens to the plans for implementation of the North American Alliance, the economic merger of the US, Canada, and Mexico? 3)
What happens to foreign mining rights to Mexican properties, under possible threat of confiscation or hiked royalty demands?
These are central questions. The underlying problems are too many to cite. The wealth of the nation is too concentrated with the oligarchs, where a small group controls up to 40% of the national wealth. See Carlos Slim, the multi-billionaire, now ranked #1 by Forbes Magazine among global wealthiest, the first time a Latino has registered that distinction.
As a group the Mexican oligarchs exert great control over the politicians, using the system to sustain power and wealth. Also, the PEMEX oil revenue is on the decline, a factor which forces change from huge strain to national finances. A shrinking pie always causes chaos. Their national oil industry is grossly mismanaged, suffers from inadequate investment, is seen predominantly as a government revenue source (cash cow), and is subject to intense control by labor unions. Lastly, PEMEX is forbidden to enter contracts with any foreign business entity as partner, consultant, or exploration agent. Mismanagement accusations by me are kind and soft lobs.
Violence has spread widely across Mexico. Murders and attempts of police officials are increasing, especially in the northern state of Nuevo Leon. Cease fires between warring drug lord groups are being violated, such as between the Gulf and Sinaloa cartels. Kidnap rings are in operation, with successful tactics. High value targets to date in the Baja and Tijuana have only involved Mexican citizens. A splinter group from the Peoples Revolutionary Army has attacked oil pipeline explosions in the past. That represented a change in tactics, shifting from online anti-government manifestos to actual bomb attacks. They have successfully hit multiple energy targets. Numerous incidents were reported in past months of dead bodies found along roads and in fields, arms tied behind the back, shot in the head. Police have in several cases found stolen police and army uniforms. Even US journalists have been threatened.
A failed nation state is the likely outcome south of the US border. Energy network attacks, growing poverty and inequality, inadequate government services, growing power of organized crime, corruption & desertion of police forces, assassination of judges and officials without consequences, and growing farmer bankruptcy are contributing to a failed system in Mexico. The current farm product price changes have resulted in tremendous additional disruption, losses, and disruption to Mexican agriculture businesses. Needs of people, upheld laws, tax structures, allegiance to authority, and sense of urgency all seem to be in breakdown mode, and have been for several months. Remarkably, the US press networks refuse to cover the stories that form long links in an ugly chain. The division between rich and poor is stark, and growing worse. Furthermore, the system is geared to aggravate that division. The failed state of Mexico will be evident from the top down, from the financial deterioration of its federal government, from the decline in their squandered energy business. Gigantic federal deficits will be the next major story coming from Mexico, along with energy strangulation by labor unions and drug lords who will continue to hold oil pipelines hostage. One must wonder if, amidst growing chaos, whether an external attack might occur of suspicious origin. Many believe autumn in 2001 saw such an event in New York City. When half the US population harbors suspicion, the doubt no longer qualifies as quackery. Mexico could ‘benefit’ from conjured disinformation to keep the nation together.
The leaders and oligarchs manage to exploit the situation further for personal gain, in both nations.