goldrunner hat mal wieder zugeschlagen:
einer der weiss was er macht und dessen Analysen Hand und Fuss haben!
Habs mal hier reinkopiert. Und den Chart mit der viergabligen pitchfork dazu.
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GOLDRUNNERFRACTALANALYSIS.COM
"YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHING, YET"
“GOLD TOP?”
A Gold Bull Market is much like a bucking bronco in the Old West. The Gold Bull is constantly trying to buck investors out of the saddle. We are seeing many in the Precious Metals universe suddenly trying to call an intermediate-term top for Gold. Some are even suggesting that this is a final top in Gold.
We at GOLDRUNNERFRACTALANALYSIS have a different view. Not only do we not see a significant top for Gold at this point, but we believe that we are very close to the juncture where Gold starts another rip higher into May or June. It will just be one more step higher for the developing Gold parabola that we have been following via the 1970’s Gold Fractal Chart. Yet, we expect the next move up in Gold to usher in a more parabolic rise on the chart.
Let’s take a look at the Gold Chart that we think is almost as significant as the Fractal Gold Chart we follow off of the late 70’s. The chart, below, is an arithmetic chart of $Gold. We have drawn the channels that correspond to the basic Elliot Wave structure of the developing Gold parabola. The equivalent of the Wave I channel is drawn in blue. The equivalent of the Wave III channel is drawn in green. And the proposed Wave V channel is drawn in red.
We can see that Gold has risen out of the top of the Wave III channel and currently has consolidated above that Wave III channel top. Currently, Gold has retraced back down to re-test the Wave III channel top. We don’t know if Gold will re-trace a bit deeper at this juncture, but we certainly believe that the next move up that breaks above the consolidation top will lead to a very aggressive move higher.
We can see in the chart that as the Gold parabola unfolds, each “wave channel expands” to allow for the parabolic rise in Gold as the slope of the rise increases. Notice how Gold rose above the Wave I channel and consolidated above it, back in the 4th quarter of 2005. We believe that Gold is at a similar juncture above the Wave III channel, currently. We expect the price chart of Gold to resolve to the upside very much like it did in the late 2005 time period. We have already laid out our upside expectations for Gold’s rise into May/ June 2011. The channel top for Gold on the log chart lies up around $1975 into May/ June. Is it possible that Gold will go parabolic to the point that it will bust through the channel top on the log chart before consolidating above it? We know that even a log chart did not contain the price rise in Gold in the late 70’s. The Gold Parabola rise tends to keep investors nervous- potentially selling too soon, then chasing price higher. Thus, Jesse Livermore is quoted as saying about a Gold Bull Market, “Get right, and sit tight.” It seems that even the best of the best have struggled to stay in the saddle of Historic Gold Bulls.
This chart has one more bit of significance. We have shown the “Current Fractal Charts of the HUI Index” fairly recently. The fractal relationships to the HUI’s current move relate to early 2002 and to late 2005. As Gold is consolidating and re-testing the Wave III channel top, the HUI is back testing its break-out of the old top. This confirms the fractal relationship of Gold to the PM stocks in terms of the HUI Index.
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