This is silly season now...bis "Sell in May" and go away ! :D......>>>>>
Die Konfetti Party geht weiter, man kann damit gut die anderen boesen Aktien shorten wie man sieht.
Die 26 billion USD haben die immer um die PM Aktien zu shorten.
Bei den Oilaktien die selbe Geschichte, hoher Oilpreis und langweilige Aktien die den Oilpreis nicht zeigen. Der Uranpreis ist am Boden, tiefer kann ich mir nicht vorstellen. Der Anstieg von Goldman Sachs war lustig heute, fuer mich waren die earnings gut frisiert wie bei Lehman die Brother's ....in arm. ! 
Wie auch immer, erstmal wieder Fiat und rate cut und schon kommt ein.....
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Sense of Calm Returns to Markets
All Eyes on the Fed
A sense of normalcy seems to have returned to the markets this morning after yesterday’s panic attack. US T-Bill yields are back up over 1.0%, after falling to a 50-year low of 0.75% yesterday, and global stock markets have stabilized with the Japanese Nikkei and Hong Kong index recovering 1.5% and the FTSEurofirst 300 index up 2.2%. Oil is trading just over $108 again, having now recovered all of yesterday’s losses, and gold is back up over $1000 after trading as low as $995 yesterday. And, of course it wouldn’t be a normal day if the US dollar weren’t lower, and so the currency markets are cooperating in that regard as traders are a little less risk adverse today and the dollar is down against most currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.
Of course, all eyes today are on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at 2:15 Easter time. The market is expecting a full 1% cut to the Fed Funds rate from 3.0% to 2.0% and there is no reason to doubt the Fed will deliver. The US investment-banking sector is teetering on the edge of collapse and the Fed is doing what it has to to ensure the banks don’t go over that edge. Drastic times call for drastic measures and we sure saw that in the unprecedented quasi nationalization of Bear Stearns. The Fed guaranteed Bear’s debt so JP Morgan could take it over at an 88% discount to market value without a bidding process or shareholder consent. This is an extreme measure for a market economy and one the Fed did not take lightly. But the survival of the US financial sector really is at stake, and the Fed has sent the message that, as lender of last resort, they will do what is necessary, no matter how unconventional, to save the system. In the end, the markets held up rather well yesterday as confidence in the Fed grew throughout the day and continues to build leading up to today’s interest rate cut.
Risk Trades Back in Play
In anticipation of today’s rate cut, traders are once again testing the risk waters and selling the safe haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc and buying the high yielding Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and British pound. The yen has come off quite dramatically and is now trading above 98 yen to the dollar after falling below 96 yesterday. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are the biggest benefactors of the yen’s weakness. Both are up more than a cent over the greenback and they’ve gained more than 2% against the yen.
The euro seems to be consolidating in the 1.5750 range after having failed a test of 1.5825 earlier this morning. There’s been talk of possible central bank intervention to shore up the dollar and this might be holding the euro back this morning. Although it is only a rumour at this time, given what the Fed is dealing with, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a concerted effort on the part of the leading central banks to restore confidence in the dollar. The Fed is doing what it has to to restore confidence in the US banking sector, but it is doing so at the expense of the dollar, and that has its own set of risks, not just to the US but to the global economy as well. You have to think that the central bankers are assessing how they can best step in to at least slow the rate of dollar depreciation.
Commodities Look Vulnerable
In economic news this morning, Canadian CPI came in at a very tame 1.8% annual rate in February. The core rate (excluding food and energy) was higher than expected at 1.5%, but overall inflation remains low enough to give the Bank of Canada plenty of latitude to cut interest rates another 50 basis points next month. The Canadian dollar is slightly higher today after having traded just below par yesterday. The outlook for the loonie continues to rest on US dollar developments and sentiment towards the basket of commodity oriented currencies. Although gold and oil prices have recovered somewhat from yesterday’s sell-off, other commodity prices remain under pressure and the broad based CRB index has recovered little of yesterday’s 20-point drop. Technically, commodity prices look like they’re in correction mode and prices are likely heading lower over the coming months.
Have a good day.
Paul Lennox, CFA, Corporate Treasurer
