Beiträge von Aladin

    October 24 - Gold $464.70 down $2.40 – Silver $6.65 up 2 cents


    Helicopters Everywhere!


    When one door closes, another opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully at the closed door that we do not see the one which has opened for us. ----Alexander Graham Bell


    Why am I not surprised? It’s Monday morning and the Orwellians wasted no time going into action. Gold is called down $2.60 and the S&P 3.5 higher. Gold was sent lower right from the get-go once trading began in Asia last evening. This follows the $6 Rule price-capping by the cabal on Friday after its unexpected, fairly dramatic surge.


    Regardless of the manipulation antics of The Gold Cartel, it was not unusual for gold to sell off nearly $4 this morning as the run-up on Friday occurred on very light volume, catching most market participants by surprise. There were just no sellers for $4/$5 on the upside. Then, the cabal forces stopped the rally cold. They want to cover their shorts as low as possible, not force the market higher by buying on strength. Some "volume" was needed to trade today at lower price points.


    A weakening dollar proved gold supportive as the US trading session wore on, that is until the announcement about a new Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke. The spot euro made a low of 119.21 in overnight trading, then rallied steadily to 120.20, before being bashed back to 119.80. The dollar fell to 89.95, down 23, once again rejecting the 90+ level.


    How ironic for Caroline Baum to come out with her sneer at the notion of a PPT and Gold Cartel on a day which substantially helps to prove our point. After the announcement of Ben Bernanke, the dollar rose (cut losses), the stock market soared and gold was knocked down nearly $4. The PPT and Gold Cartel pulled off a trifecta to perfection.


    Seems as if The Gold Cartel covered what they could at lower levels on Friday to have some fresh ammo to stop the market today. Gold rallied from $4 in the hole to go up $2. However, once the new Fed chairman was announced, they leaned on it, sending the price down on the session. So predictable. Couldn’t have bullion close higher to spoil the party on such a rah-rah day for Planet Wall Street.


    The gold open interest fell 5933 contracts to 335,513 which confirms the MIDAS analysis that it was The Gold Cartel who covered on Friday. This is bullish as we are not far from making new spot highs and the spec open interest is a little more than 35,000 contracts from its high. There is room for many tens of thousands to jump on board the long side and take gold up to $500 and beyond.


    Bouncing off the low of the day has been characteristic of how gold has traded during the Comex session on the move up this year. For many years once gold went down for the day, it was for the count. The hope of it coming back up was virtually nil. This is a sign of a healthy, robust market despite the orchestrated lower close. While the contrived efforts of The Gold Cartel were too much in the end, the inherent strength in this market is very evident.


    Helicopters Everywhere. We began the morning with Bloomberg’s Caroline Baum making the usual banal references to our camp (see Kiki Table), only to be followed by the nomination of Ben Bernanke as the new Fed Chairman. My two cents on BB:


    *His most famous comment to date (as most of you well know) is the Fed can solve problems by dropping money from helicopters if it has to. Perhaps BB can use our experienced services and hire the GATA ARMY to help out at the right time.


    *President Bush brought him into the White House as Chief Economic Adviser for a few months prior to this nomination. My take on that is he needed this amount of time to have Facts of Life inculcated as to what was to be expected should the President nominate him. Months of indoctrination to the PPT, Working Group on Financial Markets, Gold Cartel and Fed put operations was must training to be considered for the job….


    Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
    Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
    November 21, 2002


    Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here


    … What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation….


    … A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" of money.18


    -END-

    I Am Not Now, and Have Never Been, a PPT Member: Caroline Baum


    2005-10-24 00:08 (New York)


    (Commentary. Caroline Baum, author of ``Just What I Said,'' is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are her own.)


    By Caroline Baum
    Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nothing elicits more vitriol from readers than columns about conspiracy theories. Mention ``black helicopters'' or the ``plunge protection team,'' and your inbox will be inundated for weeks by folks venting their utter disdain and disgust at your pathetic naivete.


    Over the years I've dismissed the idea of a plunge protection team (PPT), a cabal of select government institutions (the Treasury and Federal Reserve) and large investment banks (Goldman Sachs is always mentioned) that allegedly intervenes to support the stock market from time to time.


    Imagine my surprise, then, when I learned quite by accident that I was a member in good standing of the PPT!


    Readers alerted me to my new, exalted status, documented in a footnote of a special report by John Embry and Andrew Hepburn of Sprott Asset Management in Toronto entitled, ``Move Over, Adam Smith: The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam.''


    The report, a collection of hearsay presented as research and given the veneer of credibility by copious references and footnotes, purports to present evidence that the U.S. government surreptitiously intervenes in the stock market. The evidence is hardly persuasive. For example, Embry dates the origin of the PPT to the Oct. 19, 1987, stock market crash. The following day, stocks mysteriously rallied.


    Self-Interest


    According to a Wall Street Journal article he cites, ``some knowledgeable traders'' speculated that the Major Market Index futures contract, a proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was ``deliberately manipulated by a few major firms as part of a desperate attempt to boost the Dow and save the markets.''


    The buying had an outsized effect on the thinly traded MMI contract, raising the futures price to a premium over the underlying securities and prompting arbitragers to buy Dow
    stocks.


    Well, whoop-de-do. On any given day, major firms buy securities to support their existing positions. There are folks who make a living capitalizing on the differences between cash and futures prices. And what's so unusual about a bounce after a 508-point slide? But in the eyes of the conspiracy theorists, this is evidence of a scheme to rig the markets -- not just stocks but gold, currencies, Treasuries and oil.


    For the uninitiated, the origin of the PPT dates to the creation of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets following the 1987 stock market crash. The group, which includes the U.S. Treasury secretary, Federal Reserve chairman, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was formed to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets.


    Roots


    The first reference to the group as a plunge protection team appeared in a Feb. 23, 1997, Washington Post article by Brett Fromson. How the government's ``high-level forum for discussion of financial policy'' morphed into a worldwide market-rigging operation is anybody's guess.


    Each of the agencies in the Working Group has a confidential contingency plan in the event of a financial crisis, Fromson reported. The SEC's includes maintaining a list of ``everyone's home and weekend numbers'' so that relevant officials, here and abroad, could be reached at any time. How positively quaint, especially when viewed from the Age of Blackberry.


    Play Acting


    The government isn't the only entity concerned about the worldwide implications of a national financial crisis. Following the near-collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, the Council on Foreign Relations conducted a simulation exercise, organized by Roger Kubarych, senior economic adviser at HVB America Inc., to determine ``financial vulnerabilities and their interconnections with broader economic, foreign policy and national security considerations.'' The results of the exercise were published by the CFR in Kubarych's 2001 book, ``Stress Testing the System.''


    I attended the first meeting of the CFR's war-game exercise, which was a lively theoretical discussion of the issues. My participation is documented in footnote 72 at the bottom of page 24 of Embry's report. Had he called me, I would have been happy to tell him what went on, best as memory serves.


    He didn't call or ask. I'm not a member of his club. (He clearly presumes I'm a member of the ``other'' club.) Conspiracy theorists stick together. They hang out on the same Web sites and chat rooms. They belong to GATA (the gold anti-trust action committee). They swap the same fish tales back and forth, with the stories acquiring respectability through frequent repetition among believers.


    Null Hypothesis


    When I called Embry last week to see if he had any hard data on the PPT -- he quotes a money manager who claims almost everyone on the floor of the various U.S. futures exchanges has seen the PPT -- he said, ``the weight of evidence, including continuous moves that make little sense, suggests that it exists.''


    Besides, where was my proof, he wanted to know. The reason Embry can't support his theory with anything concrete is the government's ``utter lack of official disclosure
    of the market interventions,'' he wrote in the report. Well, I'll be. The government is rigging the markets, and officials don't have the decency to comply with Regulation FD.
    Shameless.


    Before you e-mail me to say I couldn't possibly be as naïve as all that, take a deep breath. I don't challenge the notion of a PPT that manipulates the markets because I think the government is virtuous. To the contrary, most politicians, Republican and Democrat alike, bend the truth (lie).


    Paper Trail


    The reason the notion of a global cabal is so preposterous is that the paper trail would be too long. Too many people would have specific knowledge of the PPT's operations. Some concrete proof would have surfaced by now.


    If the Fed were buying Standard & Poor's 500 futures contracts, the PPT's vehicle of choice, it would have to have an account. There would be a record of the transactions. There would be tax implications (oh, right, the Internal Revenue Service is in on it, too). There would be balance-sheet implications because the Fed's purchases would add reserves to the banking system. Some back-office clerk would monitor the account to ensure it has adequate maintenance margin. (``Say, who is this A. Greenspan?'')


    If you were a $30,000-a-year clearing clerk who saw the trades from the market-support operations, why wouldn't you grab a multimillion-dollar advance from a publisher to expose the conspiracy? This is explosive stuff.


    Still, I'd like to keep an open mind. Anyone who has first- hand knowledge of the PPT, please forward the evidence to me. If, on the other hand, you just want to vent, contact me at cbaum@PPT.gov.


    --Editors: Dickson, Greiff, West.


    Story illustration: To read the Sprott report, see
    http://www.sprott.com/pdf/TheVisibleHand.pdf.


    To contact the writer of this column:
    Caroline Baum in New York at (1)(212) 617-3369 or
    cabaum@bloomberg.net.


    To contact the editor responsible for this column:
    James Greiff at (1)(212) 617-5801 or jgreiff@bloomberg.net.




    MIDAS comments:
    *Ms. Baum is more than hopelessly naive and close minded.


    *She is so juvenile and trite, like most all the other financial market commentators on Planet Wall Street. Ms. Baum just had to fit in the "black helicopter" bit. It is as if they don't focus on this sort of denigration, their Orwellian masters will chastise them. Talk about insecurity.


    *This is typical pabulum, rather than journalism in which the author would say these people claim something and then present others who say they are wrong and why. Not here. Just garbage. Always the same drill from the US and Canadian financial market press.


    *John Embry explained to Ms. Baum if he would like some specifics on exactly how the PPT (and friends) operated, she should call GATA's Mike Bolser and he would explain it to her. I am told she spoke to Mike at length. I don't see his name mentioned anywhere. That alone tells us where she is coming from.


    *This is the first time GATA has been mentioned by Bloomberg in over 7 years. That's an open mind for you ... fair and balanced ... right!

    Not bad, die webseite silver4.... zusaetzliche Infos. ;)


    HW in India ,und in Deutschland :


    ""Da die Veranstaltung schon läuft müsste man eigentlich so rein kommen ""


    Haben die auch Juniors dort ?


    Wenn ja dann geht mal hin, ich bin leider zu weit weg,da freut sich auch HW ansonsten muss er ganz allein uns vertreten.


    Ok, bin schon wieder weg, es gehoert hier nicht rein wird HW wahrscheinlich sagen. :D

    Edel Man


    Bezueglich Mondphasen bin ich kein Experte wie das nun genau auf den Goldpreis auswirkt. Ich weiss aber das die irgenwie einen Einfluss haben. Wir haben dieses Thema schon mehrmals besprochen und bei Vollmond die Woche danach gings meistens dann runter. Letzte Woche hatten wir wieder so einen Fall, anscheinend sind viele emotional und es gibt dann starke Schwankungen. Wie auch immer, ich schau mir lieber das an als in den Vollmond zu starren, beides kann Schwankungen verursachen. :D

    Ja der Mond spielt auch mit wie wir mittlerweile wissen.
    Egal wenn der Goldpreis zu cheap wird, dann wird ueberall eine Party gefeiert. :D.... die Asiaten freuen sich besonders, das ganze Jahr, und bald ist wieder in Februar a new Chinese Year.


    Hier ein Report vom Resource Investor:


    India gold demand down as festival and wedding season commences?
    By Jon Nones
    19 Oct 2005 at 02:16 PM

    Imports into India are down to a trickle in the peak festival and wedding season, and dealers are scouting for customers, according to Reuters.


    Bullion traders in India's leading importing centres of Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Jaipur and Chennai said demand for new gold has dipped to negligible levels.


    Chennai imports around 200 kg of gold a day during October and November but this year very little was being shipped in.
    The Punjab National Bank, which buys around 100 kg of gold per day in October and November, has not imported any in October.



    ...more


    http://sify.com/finance/forex/fullstory.php?id=13967085

    Hi Germoney


    Ich habe meine Situation bereits erklaert warum ich noch hier bin.
    Das meiste Geld ist schon draussen, ihr wisst wie es angelegt ist.
    My Insurance !


    Ich beabsichtige so lange hier zu bleiben so lange meine Kinder 13 und 16 mich als Rueckendeckung brauchen in RSA.


    Beide sind sich der Lage bewusst und wollen nach Abitur ins Ausland.


    Ich bin um die Welt, Ansichtssache, die besten Plaetze sind Vancouver und die Ost Kueste Australien. Als Jungeselle Thailand fuer ein paar Monate im Jahr, auch nicht laenger . Der einzige Platz der mich in Europa noch interessieren wuerde waere die Sued Steiermark oder Kaernten fuer die Sommermonate aber nur.


    New Zealand ?, schoen da, wie in Chile aber fad auf Dauer, dort findest du bestimmt Ruhe,hast dann eben 7 Schafe anstatt Kanacken um dich..
    Man ist da neben Australien weit weg vom Schuss und so einfach geht es nicht mehr egal wo einfach einzuwandern.


    In Deutschland koennte ich nicht mehr leben, aber der Mensch gewoehnt sich an alles wenn er muss.


    Es sieht so aus ihr werdet ueberannt vom Ausland und ausgesaugt wie die letzten Weissen hier.


    Ihr macht genauso wenig dagegen wie wir hier, man darf so etwas nicht mehr. :D


    Das sagen uns die eigenen Politiker und die Amis die Europa schwach halten wollen fuer einen bestimmten Grund.


    Mfg


    XAX


    The New World Order :D

    Komischer Name das Szenario, vielleicht hast du Recht Germoney, einmal noch ab, auf, ab, aber ich denke nicht das es bis April 2006 dauern wird. Jetzt ist die Zeit der physischen Kauefer, speziell in Indien.


    So wie ich dich verstehe wenn wir ueber 481 USD oder 248 HUI gehen dann ist diese Szenario da und der Weg nach oben frei.


    Noch so ein Drama wie Katrina koennten das beschleunigen, ein genaues timing zu machen ist schwierig IMO.


    Wenn Greenspan in Rente geht dann aendern sich die Maerkte sicherlich.


    Mal schaun was naechste Woche passiert, je frueher wir ein Tidbit haben desto besser.


    Da kommen bestimmt noch einige Kurven bis dort hin.


    Mfg


    XAX

    @ Tyr 44


    Wer will die Neger noch aufhalten. :D


    Die haben mehr oder weniger schon gruenes Licht erhalten von der ganzen Welt.


    Die Uebernahme findet schon statt, die totale Uebernahme dauert noch, da hast du Recht.


    Schade um das schoene Land, alles geht vorbei.


    Gruss

    XAX

    Schocking ! 8o


    Gerade kam das bekannte Sonntagsmagazin Carte Blanche im TV.


    Seit Juli letzten Jahr gibt es eine neue Gesetzgebung bezueglich Waffen.
    Man darf nur mehr eine Waffe fuehren, nach etlichen Trara und so aehnlich wie bei Euch, alle die eine Lizenz hatten muessen eine neue beantragen. Jeder ohne wird hart bestraft.


    Das Magazin forschte nach, ueber 60.000 Bewerbungen sind bis heute noch nicht bearbeitet, man gibt aber in der Zwischenzeit, dieses mehrmals bewiesen eine Lizenz an schwarze die einen Criminal Record haben und vorbestraft sind. Bei vielen weiteren Fragen haute man denen die Tuer vor der Nase zu bei den Aemtern und Polizeidienststellen.


    Selbst einen bekannten Sport Tontaubenschiesser der internationale Titel gewonnen hat wurde seine Waffe weggenommen da sein Sport keine Begruendung ist.


    Bei einen Ueberfall oder Einbruch wie mehrmals erwaehnt kommt die Polizei erst Stunden danach und grinst sich eines.


    Wir werden hier langsam rausgeekelt und nach der Fussball WM, falls sie stattfindet gibt es dann das Ende der Weissen die dann extrem belaestigt werden und freiwillig abhauen muessen.


    Die Welt wird dann sagen, naja die Zeit der Weissen ist vorbei in Afrika und den Schwarzen gehoert ja eh das Land.


    Die werden nach den Weissen das Land genauso ruinieren wie in Zimbabwe und danach kommt wahrscheinlich der Amerikaner und reisst es sich unter den Nagel.


    Die Uhr tickt fuer die Weissen, soweit zu den Aussichten so wie ich sie sehe.


    Mfg


    XAX

    A China silver miner's holiday :D


    The Wallace Street Journal
    By David Bond
    Associate Editor, Free-Market News Network
    Editor, Silver Valley Mining Journal


    Kunming, Yunnan Province, China – The haze of a hundred cigarettes hovers over this jam-packed saloon of vaguely Anglo-American-nautical theme. A series of bands, some live, some karaoke, bangs out a mix of killer hard rock and the ubiquitous sappy Japanese-redux-style Roger Williams whiner Muzak. Rock-n-roll, not whiner-music, is clearly the favorite in Kunming.


    On the dance floor there is a beer-can stacking contest, four feet high seeming to be the theoretical limit, wild hoots and applause if the theoretical altitude is exceeded; the hookers are chugging Heineken on dares twixt one another, chasing their beers with wine; you can save money if you order rounds of Heineken or Dali bottles, or Tingtsao cans, by the case for your table; a game of Liar's Dice is under way; a gold-miner with fine property in Henan Province is being hustled by (yet another) Canadian major – his property package went beggaring a year ago for $2 million, now a world-famous gold miner has just paid $10 million for some of it and he gets to keep the best part; the miner orders another round and introduces the hookers as his new wives, which one is the prettiest? he asks; in addition to the "working girls" the fabulously groomed female office workers and engineers of Kunming wait patiently at their own tables – if you like one of them you fill out a ticket identifying your table and inviting them over, and give it to the barkeep, if she likes you she'll drop by, the sociology of a law where Chinese parents are allowed only one son, but daughters were looked at the other way at; all seem to marvel at the ponderous belly of the wide-eyed bewildered round-eye in their midst.


    The deep waters of Dianchi Lake lap placidly on nearby shores. This 2,400-year-old city of 1 million folks descended from 26 ethnic minorities is ablaze in neon, and rockin' on this typical Monday night. Close your eyes to the neon, tune out the electronic music, just listen instead to the triumphant boisterous chatter, and you could be in Wallace, Idaho in 1890, Comstock, Nevada in 1847, San Francisco in 1850, or the Klondike or Dawson or Seattle of 1898. There's gold and silver in them there hills! Forget the TSX-V-censored press releases, with their cautions and warnings. China knows that, after 200 years in the hole, they're hot, expletives un-deleted and hyperbole all in.


    Technology, silk, gunpowder, spaghetti, ceramics and tea are what China offered the West, and for millennia the Persians, the Romans, the Italians, the Russians and the Brits bore silver over the Silk Road and the oceans to procure them. To stand on these streets is to tread on the cobblestones trod by Alexander the Great, by Caesar's Legions, by Marco Polo. China's love-affair with silver as money pre-dates recorded time, but was well-established before the birth of Christ. By 475 BC silver was informally monetized by China as a rational and unimpeachable means of exchange. The Yuan Dynasty of 1279-1369 AD declared silver to be China's official money, a tradition followed by the ensuing Ming and Qing Dynasties – indeed the tradition of silver money continued uncontaminated until 1935, when the Middle Kingdom became the last civilized culture on the planet to succumb to paper money.


    Demand from both sides of the Urals and oceans for China's advanced technologies and precious commodities over the four decades between 1400 AD and 1800 AD was so intense that by 1800, China possessed at least half of the world's silver in European, Asian and even American denominations.


    The non-Chinese world howled. Savvy Brits, unable to make their tea, silk and ceramic purchases from China with silver Her Majesty's treasuries no longer contained, did what any great superpower would do: they looted more silver from elsewhere, mainly the New World, and they inveighed war and enslavement against China. Being civilized, the Brits tried enslavement first, shipping tonne upon tonne of Indian-grown opium to China in exchange for tea and silver. Not to be out-done the Yanks jumped in, and the great clipper ship merchant fleets were born. Yes, the homeward-bound clipper ships hauled tea, but they weren't running dead-head to China: their east-bound holds teemed with dope.


    Other than silver, dope was the only thing the Western world had left to trade. China and India possessed most of the prevailing technologies and had all the access they needed to natural resources in their provinces; all the West had to offer this new global economy were dope and an advanced military culture.


    Its money and its youth threatened, an infuriated China outlawed opium in the early 1800s, first to preserve the mental health of its people, second to preserve the integrity of its silver treasuries, which by 1500 AD had made Asia the major player in what was then arguably the first fully integrated global economy. But mercantilist China, used to thriving on peaceful trade and innovation rather than war and conquest, was at a total loss to confront the Royal Navy, which sailed and later steamed to Chinese ports escorting boatloads of British merchantmen larded with the dreaded drug.


    By the 1830's, writes historian Richard Hooker:


    "(T)he English had become the major drug-trafficking criminal organization in the world; very few drug cartels of the twentieth century can even touch the England of the early nineteenth century in sheer size of criminality. Growing opium in India, the East India Company shipped tons of opium into Canton which it traded for Chinese manufactured goods and for tea. This trade had produced, quite literally, a country filled with drug addicts, as opium parlors proliferated all throughout China in the early part of the nineteenth century. This trafficking, it should be stressed, was a criminal activity after 1836, but the British traders generously bribed Canton officials in order to keep the opium traffic flowing. The effects on Chinese society were devastating. In fact, there are few periods in Chinese history that approach the early nineteenth century in terms of pure human misery and tragedy. In an effort to stem the tragedy, the imperial government made opium illegal in 1836 and began to aggressively close down the opium dens."


    Fault the frustrated Chinese government for actually starting the Opium Wars, if you must. To enforce its prohibition (and its sovereignty) China sent a rag-tag fleet of junks out to intercept a British opium shipment in November 1839. Though the junks were hopeless outgunned, an indignant England dispatched the Royal Navy to exact revenge. For two years the Royal Navy mercilessly hammered China's shore batteries, ultimately prevailing. (The Chinese, it seems, did not embrace Klausewitz's philosophy that war is merely an extension of politics. They naively believed that reason and technology would trump all else.)


    Humiliated by this defeat, China signed the Treaty of Nanking in 1842, followed a year later by the British Supplementary Treaty of the Bogue. These provided that the ports of Guangzhou, Jinmen, Fuzhou, Ningbo, and Shanghai should be open to British opium trade and British residence; in addition Hong Kong was ceded to the British. Sensing blood France, Russia and the United States all piled in with similar treaties granting similar access. In essence, the West subdivided the Middle Kingdom.


    A sort of 19th Century prototype of the Treaty of Versailles, the Nanking Treaty also called for the scalp of Lin Tse-hsü, the Imperial Commissioner at Canton – he was the author of China's anti-opium policy – and the poor guy was dishonoured and fell on his sword. Maggie Thatcher's return of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty wasn't an act of surrender at all; it was merely the return of stolen goods, maybe even an imperial act of contrition, a rare event in this nasty age.


    To drive a freeway in Beijing is to discover the Brits' all-told influence in China. What we would call the truckers' lane is the "Carriage-Way." To visit the Forbidden City, the Summer Palace, is to hearken upon gut-wrenching tales of ancient places of prayer and worship sacked and burned by the British and the French. Delightfully transliterated informational signs invariably use British spellings.


    The contemporary American historian Andre Gunter Frank, in his seminal book Re-Orient argues passionately for a re-thinking of our Euro-centric, Marxist view towards China, and the rotten things we've done to Asia because we could not trump their technologies. Follow the trade, not the bullets, Frank begs.


    Think about it, please. When was the last time China invaded Mexico or Canada? To China, Mexico is as close as Viet Nam. Korea is as close as Canada. How do we look to them?


    And what of our embrace of Japan, which, after the Brits were done with China, savaged what was left with a brutality in the 1930s and 1940s that makes Stalin, Hitler and even Mao look like absolute pikers? A Japan far less user-friendly to Americans than China ever has been: I am not making this up. Ask anyone doing trade in both countries. You can own fee-simple property, as an American, in China. You cannot do so in Japan.


    At a banquet and drinking party in Lijiang, China, another stop along the Silk Road 9,000 feet above sea level at the foot of the 18,000-foot Jade Dragon Snow Mountain, I am seated next to a Taiwanese businessman who buys silver powder from China, converts it into semiconductors, and sells it back into the mainland. What is to become of you guys? I ask during one of our interminable China-style toasts. What is to become of Taiwan? Are you in danger from these people?


    "Shee-yut," he replies in his best American slang. "We need them. They need us. That's friendly. I have many customers here. They have many customers in Taiwan. We do business, not war. You want my advice? Keep an eye on Japan."


    Thus goes the talk, from the sea-level elevations of Beijing to the high-mountain wilds of Lijiang. Trade, not dreadnaughts, as the tools of diplomacy. Interesting stuff, considering that two Chinese astronauts have been returned safely to earth even as Brownspan and Rumsfeld are here, trying to bring the Chinese to Jesus – all in the past week.


    Earlier this trip, with Zhu Lin Xian, the Magistrate of Louning County, Henan Province, we toast our complicated teenage daughters and the future of silver mining in China. No horseshit about international relations; we have just decided we are friends. He has graciously hosted lunch. Our company giggles politely, but not derisively, at the round-eye's ineptness with chopsticks. We swap packs of cigarettes; mine, American Spirits, his Luo Yan and locally made. He likes mine so much he fetches up his chauffeur to trade a carton for a pack. Smoking Luo Yans this week, I clearly got the better end of the deal. Zhu's smokes are good. A carton of decent ciggies in China sells for about a buck. Yes, wages here suck, a miner earns 1,000 RMB (about $100 US) a month, but he can buy a Bic lighter or a pack of Luo Yans for a dime, and have enough left over to make the strokes on his farm.


    Despite the need for an interpreter the conversation flows easily. Xian is a guy you'd like instantly, meeting over a pool game. He was a schoolteacher, now a high-ranking official who can cut you a mining deal and wants only an amenable (and at 1 percent entirely reasonable) tax cut for his county in return for a decent 30-year mine lease. If he signs off, so does the central government. You don't have to "think Chinese" to like Mr. Zhu, or to appreciate the time he has carved from a busy day managing a county of 800,000 people to break bread. China wants, and except for a few brief bad moments, embraces capitalism. Let's get rich, he says. His message to this American, only one of which has ever visited this region before: Please come see us, and meet us. We like you guys; please come see us, because I think you will like us, too.


    So I raise my Heineken or Dali high to the celebrating silver miners in Kunming who are stacking beer cans and expending American capital in their efforts, and are sharing, as per contract, the fruits. You can cut a 75-25 deal here if you are a bright Canadian miner, not bad, better than the 50-50 Schlumberger just got for a chemical plant in Beijing.


    I toast the gutsy China Man who has left the farm, bet his equity on a ferryboat, to haul mining concentrates from the Ying Mine down the reservoir to the mill on a contract, or to drive his truck on the high-line.


    I toast the upstart North American companies who are willing to take a chance on China, even as I toast a China willing to take a chance on us. The British cannon are gone. China's great test will be to see if it can keep these deals. So will be America's.


    China is back, and in the long perspective of history, they've not been gone long. Which means silver is back. Which means honest money is back. Which means astuteness in trade, not violence, has a chance to determine the future of the human race. Which means, maybe even within the lifetime of my own daughters, and the daughters of Zhu Lin Xian, an honest America will return. The Pacific will have earned her name.

    Ich musste schmunzeln als ich am Freitag einen Bericht in der Zeitung las.Normalerweise steht jeder andere nicht in der Zeitung, aber der:



    GERMAN TOP ENVOY MUGGED AT MOUNTAIN



    Der Stellvertretene Deutsche Botschafter ging mit seiner Familie spazieren auf dem Lions Head und wurden von zwei Gangstern ausgeraubt. Es ist der 68 Ueberfall um den Tafelberg und Lionshead in einem Jahr. Naja, vielleicht wachen sie jetzt mal auf und machen etwas dagegen, soweit zum Spaziergang um den Lions Head. Statt den Wanderstock sollte man eher eine Pistole mitnehmen.