Beiträge von Aladin

  • Gold auf dem Weg zu 342 Dollar. Begleitthread

    Leosline ;)...guter Bericht !


    sorry, one for the road


    Zitat

    Original von Screener
    Findest du diese Bilder nicht ein wenig kindisch?


    Screener


    Ich habs gerne lustig an schlechten Tagen und das hebt die Moral.


    Deine Kommentare und Vorraussagen schlagen das um Laengen und sind viel lustiger/kindischer ...als meine Bilder.


    Da gehoert mehr dazu eigefleischte Gold und Silberbugs vom Glauben zu bringen als in den Wald zu schreien Gold faellt auf 348 und Gold ist Muell.


    Bleibe du besser beim Fiat Geld, es brennt zumindest im Vergleich zu Gold, das auch laenger haelt...

  • Das neue Südafrika

    Mboweni hints at Christmas rate hike to rein in inflation


    Kevin O’Grady


    Economics Editor


    THE spectre of an interest rate hike just days before Christmas loomed yesterday, when Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni gave the strongest indication yet that a hike will come sooner rather than later.


    The Bank tends to shy away from adjusting the repo rate during the festive season, as it has the potential to affect consumers’ spending during the year’s peak demand period.


    But Mboweni seemed to be preparing the market for a rate hike at the next meeting of the Bank’s monetary policy committee on December 7 and 8, saying the Bank should be careful not to “fall behind the curve like in 2001”.


    Three interest rate cuts in 2001 weakened the rand and sent inflation higher, but the Bank did not start pushing interest rates up until January 2002.


    “We were behind the curve and we can’t afford this time round to be behind the curve, so you can imagine what position I was advancing in the committee based on what we see on the inflation side,” Mboweni said, referring to last week’s committee meeting, at which it was decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7%.


    The committee adopted a more hawkish monetary stance at last week’s meeting because of the risk of the second-round effects of higher oil prices on inflation.


    However, Mboweni said yesterday at the Reuters economist of the year awards in Sandton that the debate about first-round and second-round effects was “really academic”.


    “If you can see the first indications of inflation picking up on occasion of the higher oil prices, surely at some point the second-round effects are going to come in?


    “And by the time, the gardener … increases the prices of the vegetables — which he grows on his field without any use of oil, but he thinks because the oil price is high he must also increase the prices of the vegetables — before that comes, why should you as the central banker hang around and twiddle your thumbs?” Mboweni said.


    CPIX inflation (consumer inflation less interest costs on mortgages), which the Bank uses for inflation targeting, rose to 4,8% in August after hitting a record low of 3,1% in February.



    Mboweni pointed out crucial differences between last week’s policy committee statement and previous ones, including repeated references to the decision not to change rates “at this meeting” and the absence of a reference to the possibility of a rate cut.



    Government bonds dipped after Mboweni spoke as traders priced in the increased possibility of an interest rate hike this year.


    “A rate hike in December? Certainly looks like the governor is trying to prepare the market for one,” Barclays said in a research note after the comments.


    Yields on the benchmark R153 bond rose five basis points to 7,96% after Mboweni spoke, before falling back to 7,94%.


    But yields in domestic money markets — as measured by forward rate agreements — jumped by up to 14 basis points, in a trend traders said pointed to the likelihood that interest rates would start to rise in December.


    “The market is now pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with 50% before the governor spoke,” one local trader said.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Hurricane Wilma roars toward Mexico and US

    Sofia Miselem ,Cancun, Mexico

    20 October 2005 02:39

    A monstrous Hurricane Wilma barrelled toward Mexico and the storm-weary United States coast on Thursday, forcing tens of thousands to flee coastlines after it mushroomed into the most powerful storm recorded to date in the Atlantic.


    The US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said the "extremely dangerous" behemoth had weakened slightly to a category-four hurricane, packing winds of 240kph, as it continued to swirl toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, which is popular among European and US tourists.


    However, the NHC said Wilma "could regain category-five intensity", pushing wind speeds closer to 280kph, as they were clocked on Wednesday. Five is the top category on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.


    "The storm is very powerful and very threatening," said Mexican President Vicente Fox, adding that authorities are prepared for its impact.


    Cuba started to evacuate 235 000 people, while tens of thousands of tourists were ordered out of Cancun, Mexico, and the Florida Keys island chain.


    Mexican authorities ordered the evacuation of more than 33 000 tourists vacationing in two islands off Cancun, Isla Mujeres and Holbox, and from the Punta Allen laguna south of here. Another 70 000 in Cancun itself were advised to leave the area.


    Quitana Roo state, on the eastern edge of the Yucatan peninsula, which includes the resorts of Cancun and Cozumel, was put under a red alert by Governor Felix Gonzaelez to prepare for Wilma's fury.


    The storm also forced the cancellation of the MTV Video Music Awards Latin America ceremony, planned for Wednesday night in Cancun.


    The peninsula could be hit by hurricane conditions in the next 24 hours, according to the NHC, which warned that "preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion".


    "All those here should take necessary precautions: first, tourists should return to their cities of origin; second, homes and boats should be secured," said Roberto Vargas, a civil protection official in Cancun.


    The NHC warned that Yucatan could be hit by storm-surge flooding of 2m to 3m above normal tide, along with "large and dangerous battering waves", if Wilma's eye makes landfall on the peninsula.


    Forecasters then expect Wilma to make a sharp turn to the north-east towards Florida, which is bracing for the hurricane to arrive on Sunday, and a state of emergency has been declared in the Keys.


    President George Bush has been briefed on the storm, a spokesperson said, and he called on Americans to heed warnings about Wilma.


    Fluctuating intensity
    At 9am GMT on Thursday, Wilma was about 315km south-east of Cozumel. Wind speed had dropped from 250kph to 240kph.


    "Fluctuations in intensity are common in hurricanes of this intensity [and] are likely in the next 24 hours," said the NHC. "Wilma could regain category-five intensity on Thursday."


    On Wednesday, the hurricane's barometric pressure had dropped to 882 millibars, "the lowest pressure on record for a hurricane in the Atlantic basin", the NHC said. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm is.


    At least 11 people have been killed in flooding after two weeks of torrential rainfall in much of Haiti, but authorities made no immediate link to Wilma.


    Widespread flooding and landslides were reported in Jamaica from rainfall sparked by the hurricane, and nearly 64cm of rain is expected to drench mountainous areas of Cuba until Friday.


    World oil prices have eased, however, amid hopes that Wilma would not hit oil installations on the storm-weary US Gulf Coast.


    It is the 12th full-blown hurricane of the Atlantic season, and a series of storms have left thousands dead in Central America and along the US Gulf Coast.


    Hurricane Katrina killed more than 1 200 people on the US Gulf Coast after it struck on August 29, and Hurricane Stan left more than 2 000 dead or missing in Guatemala earlier this month. Dozens more were killed by the storm in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Mexico.


    Authorities in Central America kept a close eye on Wilma's progress, with alerts issued in Costa Rica and Honduras, while Guatemala remained in a state of emergency from Stan. But no mass evacuations were ordered.


    Florida has already been battered by hurricanes Dennis and Katrina this year, and the state's Governor, Jeb Bush, brother of the president, was downcast at the prospect of a fresh hit.


    "Why us?" he said. "How does a storm take a sharp 90-degree turn?" --

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Financial Advisors,the Anti Goldbug, he was here yesterday :D



    Did you ever stop to think how many people make a living from 'advising' others? Take your car into a dealership, and the service manager will advise you how to get it fixed. Go to a doctor to get advised, or to a health food store for advice. Weight losers are subject to untold advice, as are gym and exercise aficionados. Photo stores will advise you as to which film or camera to buy, and the plant store will advise on what to buy and plant. Advice is plentiful, whether it's from a marriage counselor, psychiatrist, psychologist, or roofer...... or a Screener who tries to tell you Gold is going to 348 USD. ;(



    Now, if Mrs. Smith had bought gold four years ago, she would have profited by 75% by now, or 18.75% per year. She wouldn't have had to pay a fee for "managing her money," and she would be out of dollars, and into another denomination, which is ounces of gold. If she had bought silver, she would be 90% ahead or 22.5% a year. If Mrs. Smith has placed her $30,000 in a bank savings account four years ago, she would now have $31,218 and the $218 would be taxable. If she had bought gold, she would have $52,500, or with silver, she would have $57,000. How much advice and planning goes awry? A lot of it, believe me! Joe Blow stocks may fall out of bed, or Suzy Smith's bonds may default. Look people, General Motors stock was $84, four years ago, and now it is struggling to stay above $20. They lost $1.6 billion the first quarter of this year! Wal Mart stock is not much more than half of what it was four years ago, and Ford isn't any better at about $8. Lots of bonds have failed as well.



    http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/stott102005.html


    Have a nice trading day, I'll take a long weekend before I start all over again.


    Anyhow,


    GOLD


    Gold needs to break $468.50 for further gains to $472.20. On the lower side a consolidated fall below yesterday’s low of $462.00 will result in a test of $456.60.

    SILVER

    Silver needs to break $774.00 – 778.00 zone for $788.50. On the lower side $744.00 is the key medium term support and a daily close below the same will result in further losses else the downside will be limited for silver.


    Lets see what happens today. :rolleyes:


    Mfg


    XAX

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Rise of the gold standard


    The gold standard shall, like the mythological bird Phoenix, rise from its ashes when the regime of irredeemable currency forced on the peoples of the world will self-destruct, as the time-bomb of ever-increasing unpayable debt, having reached critical mass, goes off. The born-again international gold standard will be complete with its natural clearing system, the international bill market. Advocates of the so-called 100 percent gold standard display a most profound ignorance of monetary science when they naively think that the clearing system of the new gold standard will consist of fleets of cargo planes flying gold around the world to satisfy their taste for purity.


    There is a great urgency to have a national debate on the burning questions how to prepare for the cataclysmic collapse of the regime of irredeemable currency that is now threatening the world. It is inexcusable that some people are trying to smuggle in their own petty agenda and derail the orderly discussion of the main issue, the study of the operation of the gold standard in depth, including its clearing system the bill market, and its signaling system the discount rate (as distinct from the rate of interest).


    The second coming of the gold standard and the bill market is inevitable, despite the charlatanism of the opponents of real bills. Their 100 percent gold standard will be rejected 100 percent by events as they unfold.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    In Alan Greenspan We Trust ?(


    By Martin Wolf


    20 Oct 2005 at 10:08 AM EDT



    JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- Alan Greenspan is the pre-eminent central banker of our era. During his 18 years as chairman of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. has enjoyed low and stable inflation and suffered only two shallow recessions. It has done this despite a stock market crash in 1987, a big downturn in commercial property in the late 1980s, a series of international financial crises in the 1990s, a three-year bear market after 2000, several wars and a terrorist attack on the U.S.


    It is little wonder that Greenspan has become an almost legendary figure. Yet how good has his performance been and what lessons does his tenure bequeath?

    One reason for questioning the uniqueness of Greenspan’s capacities is that he succeeded a giant. As Greenspan himself said (in a speech delivered on the 25th anniversary of the decision): “The policy change initiated under the leadership of chairman Paul Volcker on that Saturday morning (October 6, 1979) rescued our nation’s economy from a dangerous path of ever-escalating inflation and instability.” Volcker had to crush inflation. Greenspan merely had to keep the show on the road.


    Yet another reason for questioning the unique sagacity of the chairman is that low inflation has broken out all over the world. The monetarist counter-revolution, the pain caused by the inflationary excesses of the 1970s, globalisation and the weakening of trade union power have improved the medium-term trade-off between inflation and output, everywhere. So, too, have improved institutions, particularly the widespread move to central bank operational independence and inflation targeting.


    By current standards, the Fed is almost antediluvian. Surprisingly for a man once known as a gold bug and disciple of Ayn Rand’s libertarian philosophy, Greenspan has emerged as the policy maker closest in spirit to John Maynard Keynes. This is not because he believes in the naive Keynesian economics of the 1950s and 1960s. But Keynes would not have done so either. What Greenspan shares with the father of macroeconomics is his trust in his own judgment, in discretionary policy making and in the wisdom of managing the long run by treating it as a series of short runs.


    What, then, is Greenspan’s approach to monetary policy? First, as he himself put it in his closing remarks at this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, the goal is: “Maximum sustainable economic growth … with price stability pursued as a necessary condition to promote that goal.” The emphasis on maximum growth, combined with Greenspan’s willingness to discover the economy’s speed limit by trial and error, has been a salient (and successful) characteristic of his era.


    Second, Greenspan rejects monetary targeting because the relationship between money and spending broke down in the 1980s and early 1990s. As he told the Jackson Hole symposium in 2003: “When significant and shifting uncertainties exist in the macroeconomic environment, (rules) cannot substitute for risk-management paradigms.” Keynes would surely have approved of this pragmatic eclecticism.


    Third, Greenspan regards explicit inflation targets as a straitjacket. In 2003, he has noted, the Fed acted to forestall the risk of deflation, albeit small, at the price of increasing the risk of a temporary overshoot in inflation. Thus, “the product of a low probability event and a potentially severe outcome was judged a more serious threat to economic performance than the higher inflation that might ensue in the more probable scenario”.


    Yet, fourth, Greenspan has rejected the idea that “risk management” should include trying to prick asset price bubbles. He argues that it is impossible to know whether a bubble is occurring. The right solution, he believes, is a flexible economy and a central bank responsive to falling asset prices. Greenspan believes the U.S. has the former, while he has been hyperactive in response to the latter.


    The U.S., one may argue, needs such a policy maker. It is too important for its central bank to target inflation mechanistically or ignore wider consequences of its policies. I have sympathy with this assessment. Yet valid concerns exist. Bank of England governor Mervyn King has one. The U.K.’s framework of monetary policy, with its explicit inflation targets, does the Bank’s work for it, he has argued, by conditioning market expectations. The superiority of explicit targets is shown in the lower volatility in forward interest rates in the U.K. than in the U.S.


    A second concern is that the combination of the Fed’s discretion and Greenspan’s domination has made it a one-man band. The transition to a new chairman will create far more uncertainty than is desirable or necessary.


    There is a third worry: how can the Fed take a “risk management” approach to central banking while ignoring what has so often proved the biggest risk of all - a massive asset price bubble?


    This, then, raises the final concern, namely, that Greenspan’s asymmetrical approach to asset prices - indifference when prices soar and aggressive loosening when they tumble — has encouraged investors to take excessive risks. At the least, critics would continue, a sober central banker should have warned investors of these risks, rather than act as a cheerleader for U.S. productivity.


    These concerns are valid. But I personally draw three lessons from the Greenspan era. The first is that it is hard to decide how the most important of all central banks should operate because we do not have a clear enough understanding of the underlying economics, particularly of asset prices.


    The second is that giving so much discretion to an institution dominated by one person is risky. Predictability demands clearer objectives. The U.S. should have a central bank with a more modern mandate and a more collegial approach.


    The last, however, is that the world has been lucky to have had Greenspan.


    Let us hope his successors are equally successful in managing the challenges he has left behind.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    @Edel, vielleicht ist das nun zweimal,ich hoffe das letzte mal: ;)


    So einfach in den Raum werfen ?, da fehlt die Begruendung.


    Auch Bilder sprechen Baende, oder nicht ?


    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie102005.html





    THE REAL MOTIVE


    When the hurricanes hit, it became clear to the world that the United States had no resolve in financial matters. Why should we, when as world currency holders and benefactors, we can print money with abandon and coerce the world to supply the capital necessary to pay our bills? Before the French finance minister, Chairman Greenspan admitted our broken budget process long ago out of control. He was embarrassed to be quoted. My personal take is that Greenspan, soon to exit his post, is eager to lay blame on the US Congress, in order to deflect attention away from his serial bubble engineering modus operandi and track record. He supplied the quote, enjoyed its broadcast, and left it up to the Dept of Treasury to issue lame denials in a scramble


    to control damage. He thumbed his noses at Treasury.


    The real reason for newfound awareness of price inflationary threats is to provide political cover for a series of continued measured rate hikes by the USFed. The real reason for the sequence of upcoming painful rate hikes is to keep foreigners motivated to support the USTBond sales by the USGovt.


    The USFed wants to prevent a run on the USDollar. They also want to prop up the Treasury yield curve, so that the long end can also rise as they push up the short end.


    No way. The USFed wants to manage the USDollar, which when the rate hikes stop, is in very big danger of a massive worldwide selloff. No way. The USFed wants to support the yield curve, which already is making lives for bankers very difficult.


    We must soon resort to more distortion of the US GDP, which is in all likelihood going to be negative but reported positive. Yes, a recession in real terms will be endorsed as growth.