Beiträge von Aladin

Watch the latest Mining Industry Review with
Silvercorp. They have have a very substantial project in China according
to company representative Cathy Fong.

The potential earnings of this company are significant.

The Silver Investor,.....

http://www.fmnn.com/eTVLaunch.asp?rid=258

Baltimore, Maryland

September 10-11, 2005

by Dan Denning

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MARKET REVIEW: A HEDGE AGAINST HARD TIMES

One would hardly expect to get a history lesson in Las Vegas. But, of course, little gems and nuggets of wisdom were liberally dispersed here at the gold and precious metals conference that took place at the Mirage this week.

One of the high points of the conference for me was the panel discussion with some of my favorite resource gurus, "Asset-Based Investing; A Hedge Against Hard Times. The panel was moderated by Al Korelin from the Korelin Economics Report, and joining him were Doug Casey, Rick Rule, Bart Kitner from Kitco.com, and Pamela Aden.

There were a lot of familiar arguments for gold, namely, as Pamela Aden put it, gold is the "ultimate currency."

"For gold to be the ultimate currency," she went on, "it has to be the strongest currency." Pam looks for a gold to make a new high about $456 by this time next year.

"But was Katrina bullish for gold?" Al Korelin asked.

"Yes," Doug answered.

"The war against Islam is going to go very badly. What makes you think these people can run a war on the other side of the world when they can't even get to New Orleans?"

Understated as always, Doug pointed out that to the extent that the government response to Katrina (local, state, and Federal) was botched, it would not exactly inspire confidence in the United States.

"And confidence," Doug continued, "is the only thing standing behind the dollar in a fiat currency world. Watching what happened in New Orleans can only decrease the value of the dollar."

All of the panelists agreed that what's bad for the dollar is good for gold. But they did not entirely agree on the best way to own gold for those investors who've yet to begin hedging against what Doug calls the "unbacked liability of a bankrupt government."

"All investors should own some bullion," Bart Kitner said. "But be aware that bullion doesn't give you an leverage. If gold goes up $5, you're up $5. If you own gold shares, then you've got some leverage."

"Start with bullion," Rick suggested, "And if you're not a speculator, stop with bullion. You want to buy junior resource stocks in a bear market. You don't want to buy them in a bull market, after 80% of the crowd is already in. But if you're going to buy at all, buy the hoarders and prospectors."

"What I mean by that," Rick elaborated, "is buy the companies run by guys who aren't going to go mine all their gold now and leave themselves with a big hole in the ground."

"I like what Warren Buffet said," Doug added. "Put all your eggs in one basket...and watch that basket. Of course, that won't do you any good if the bottom falls out of your basket. But in a bull market like the one I think we're going to see, you want to put as much sail to the wind as you can. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity to take a kick at the cat."

"And don't forget cash," Rick Rule added. "Cash is good for the nerves."

Regards,

Dan Denning
for The Daily Reckoning

Guten Morgen,

Den Vergleich solltet ihr mal anschaun, ich hoffe der link geht mit der Adobe File:

http://www.yukonzinc.com/docum…rage-Jensen2005-09-08.pdf

The case for silver:

http://www.newscaster.ca/yukon…lver-Jensen2005-09-08.pdf

Na, wer dem Junior nicht widerstehen kann und der erste sein will, der holt ihn jetzt schon.

Aber Zack, Zack !

Zitat Ghost: .....Gestern musste ich zittern....

Have a nice weekend

Ein alter Beitrag von Gerbino , aber immer noch aktuell. :))

BASE METAL STOCKS: A BULL MARKET BEYOND EXPECTATIONS

By Kenneth J. Gerbino
March 29, 2005

I believe the base metal stocks are going to extend their bull market for a long time and well beyond the consensus "group think". There will be corrections along the way but I believe these stocks are going to surprise everyone over the next few years. My reasoning follows below.

I believe precious metal mining stocks should be in everyone's portfolio but I also think it is a good idea to have some exposure to base and other metals (copper, zinc, nickel, lead, chromium, aluminum).

In order to understand a major change that could take place in an investment sector one can gain insights from a major change that took place in another sector.

I remember twenty years ago when Intel was producing computer chips, which at the time had become like a commodity item. From 1985-1995, Intel sold for only 7-12 times earnings because of the then "commodity" aspect of chips and the fact the computer industry was at that time a cyclical industry. By 2000, Intel was selling for 60 times earnings because of the Internet, laptop and cell phone usage explosion (mega-trends creating a new electronic marketplace with a more sustained demand for chips). Even today, after the tech stock wipeout, Intel is still selling for 20 times earnings.

A similar usage explosion has now started in base metals. The corresponding new mega-trend is Asian and Indian base metal demand. Base metal stocks are now selling at only 5-8 times cash flow. Old time base metal investors are locked into the past thinking of the cyclical nature of the industry. Three billion Asian and Indian people say "no way". Any structural or sustained demand for these metals could increase cash flow multiples to 12-16 times or more. This has significant implications. It means that even if the prices of these base metals go down by 25-35%, because of the multiple expansions, the base metal stocks will still be buys.

Even with just 2-3% growth in Asia and India (current growth rates are 8-9%) a steady demand for resources will create a more sustained and structural market for these metals. A steady demand would change the "cyclical" aspect of base metal demand and this would be reflected in higher cash flow multiples and higher stock prices. Tight supplies also will help stock values.

The latest data from China shows that 82% of their capital spending is on housing and infrastructure (roads, power plants, railroads, sewers etc.). Even with only 2-3% growth, China's capital spending should be a long-term positive non-cyclical factor to metal demand, as these infrastructure projects will last for decades as huge rural populations enter their new economic world. In the more established economies, capital spending is more cyclical because people are buying cars and TV sets and washing machines based on the economy, which can go up and down. But newly industrializing countries do not stop building roads and power plants when their economies slow down. Infrastructure projects are usually not cyclical since they have State backing and many times are not curtailed despite poor economic conditions. In the current age of debt financing and printing money by world governments, it would be hard to imagine politicians considering canceling a power dam or major highway because of a slowdown in the economy. It will not happen in China or in India. The projects in the U.S during the great depression and many projects in Asia during the Asian meltdown are good examples of large state projects that continued despite all. Therefore one can expect a robust demand for base metals for a very long time even with substantial slowdowns in India and Asia.

China will attempt to talk down their economic growth and try and get the hedge funds and speculators out of the metal markets so they can buy cheaper on world markets. But with 82% of their capital spending on housing and huge infrastructure projects any economic slowdown will still require a sustained demand for these metals.

Because of this change from a cyclical nature of base metal demand to a more structural and smoothed out demand, the valuations and cash flow multiples for the base metal producers I believe could have a possible dramatic shift upwards. Also it is just a matter of time before they start paying out solid dividends.

Asian analysts are missing the boat on the compounding of metal demand. Demand growth of plus 10% for a given year, followed by a major slowdown to only 3% in the next year is still bullish. When you do the math you start with, lets say, normal demand of 100,000 tonnes of some metal, that then goes to 110,000 tonnes (10% higher) and prices respond upwards. Now in the next year, if you go down to only a 3% growth rate that means you are now increasing demand from the 110,000 tonnes by another 3%. That means demand in year two is 113,300 tonnes. That's still more demand than what caused the price to go up in the first place. Get the picture? If 110,000 tonnes created a price rise, then a 113,300 tonne demand the following year will certainly do it again unless supply turns up from somewhere and in the mining business this means 5-10 year lead times. Even a slowdown in Asia and India is bullish for the metals.

Cash flow multiples should also increase for these mining stocks due to two other long term inflation inducing economic mega-trends we have discussed many times (global money printing and increasing debt levels).

At the recent The Bank of Montreal Nesbitt Burns annual institutional mining conference every CEO from the base metal companies that presented had the same story; demand was very strong and not letting up and that warehouse supplies globally of many basic metals are very low. They see significant supply squeezes for the next 2-3 years. BHP, the largest natural resource company in the world right now makes more profits from base metals than any other business sector including petroleum, coal, steel materials, or diamonds. BHP is currently bidding $7 billion for base metal producer WMC. Xstrata ($6.5 billion mining giant) was also bidding about $6 billion. These big conservative mining companies know their industry and I believe they see sufficient evidence that a new base metal decade is coming to this world.

Some junior companies with quality base metal, or massive sulfide deposits and other important metals may also be good buy out candidates for other resource companies as these juniors develop their projects.

A new "materials" centric world is unfolding for billions of people who desire a better lifestyle and are demanding it Technology, education, globalization, and communication, are driving this desire. This is a huge unstoppable mega-trend. The resource sector will be a solid investment theme because of this and the base metal sector will most likely be a leading beneficiary.

Ken Gerbino
Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
Investment Management

"" am Hoch der Vorwochen bei 219,34 Punkten kann es nochmals zu einem Rücksetzer kommen. Das übergeordnet bullische Setup wird aktuell aber erst bei einem Rückfall unter 198,00 Punkte auf Schlussbasis gefährdet. "
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Genau das habe ich gemeint Edel Man.

Spaetestens bei 240 sind Gewinnmitnahmen, die setzen dann auch zurueck.

Gnight

XAX

@ Edel Man

Da gibts auch einige die meinen das nochmal ein Tuscher runter kommt wenn die 456 USD Marke nicht geknackt wird. Eine heftige umkaempfte Marke ist das. Durch irgend einer Bombshell oder Trick koennte das PPT noch einmal auf die 429 USD druecken. Darauf sollte jeder gefasst sein und nicht mit "Hurra" jetzt voll einsteigen. Wenn du auf die Chart oben von Dir schaust, dann koennte kurzfristig bis auf den unteren Rand von dem Kreisel der HUI nochmals auf die 200 aufschlagen damit sollte jeder rechnen.

Erst wenn die 456 Marke Vergangenheit ist der Weg auf die 1000 $ frei die sicher 3 Jahre dauert.

Bin gespannt ob der Dollar nochmal ein High bekommt durch einen erneuten Brainwash mit den Maerkten und Anlegern.

Ich schaetze das der Dollar um 30 % faellt ueber die naechsten Jahre , wichtig ist wie sich Gold in anderen Waehrungen wie Euro/C$/CHF verhaelt.

Ob der Guru M recht hat Ende des Jahres ?? ...glaube nicht !

Der schickte heute einen Alert das man Goldstock verkaufen sollte und das ein 400 USD Tsunami kommt, der Dollar nun steigt.

Entweder ist der Guru ein $ Maulwurf oder es kommt echt so wie er sagt, wir werden es ja sehen.

Von unseren HUI 160 Guru hoert man auch nicht viel.

Expect the unexpected, trotzdem aufpassen wenn alle zum Angriff blasen.

Mfg

XAX

@ Tambok

Nice Titts, but I don't know what you are saying,I can't get the picture right now. Anyway, I got laid and I could not give a hoot right now, the picture/chart of the Junior I'm busy with I"ll send later, who care's about the hippos anyway if you're not close to the hippo.

Gnight, sorry its 4am and I just get started

It was a nice day, hope you got one too, a day to remember !

I don't even care how much the goldprice is !

XAX

Tambok

Lassen wir die Hippos im Raum stehen, fuer mich sind sie eben Crooks, da waere ich vorsichtig mit solchen CEO's von Corleone's.

......

"Man sollte nur die Kebbkle-GM vollständig und gleichmäßig
im Depot haben. Weil es zu Verschiebungen kommen wird."
----------

Klar "verschieben" die Kohle wenn sie es koennen und verabschieden sich dann mit besten Gruessen von RSA.

Hier geht alles, und viele sind korrupt, eine Hand waescht die andere,
beide das Gesicht, und jeder linkt den andern in der Mehrzahl.

Solchen Mafiosi brauche ich bestimmt kein Geld vertrauen und wenn dann mit Vorsicht bei der Spekulation mit Randpoker die du machst, Tambok.
In mein Depo brauche ich die Kebbles nicht, aber jeden das seine.

Ich sitze noch auf GFI , Range,DisHarmony und DRD, da reicht mir hier im Zirkus RSA.

Ich bin froh wenn ich noch heil rauskomme aus der RSA Goldminen Saga und der "multikulti utopie" politik hier.

Ich gebe Dir recht das es Gold wert ist wenn die Hippos weg sind.

Mfg

XAX

'Not all cops are corrupt' ...da bin ich aber froh !

07/09/2005 13:50

Johannesburg - Assuming police officers throughout the country were extorting money from illegal immigrants was dangerous and misleading, police said on Wednesday in response to calls for action after a televised expose of officers taking bribes.
In a Special Assignment probe, police at Booysens Police Station, Johannesburg, were shown taken money to free illegal immigrants being held in custody - allegedly a widespread practice in the city.

A proper investigation into the alleged corruption at Booysens would inform the action the police would take, said national police spokesperson Director Phuti Setati.

Concluding extortion was happening everywhere would create "the wrong perception altogether," he said.

However, he did appeal to the public to help the police in eradicating corruption wherever and whenever it did raise its head - instead of waiting for television exposes.

"People who see these things happening. People who hear these things happening. People who witness these things happening. It is high time people stand up and say: 'If I see something wrong happening, I must alert the police,' so we can attend to it swiftly," said Setati.

Zero-tolerance attitude to corruption

Even vulnerable people, such as illegal immigrants, could report corruption through Crime Stop on 08600-10111. The police would ensure they did not endanger the lives of people who gave them information, he said.

Gauteng police commissioner Perumal Naidoo was still refusing to say a word about the footage on Wednesday, after reportedly storming out of the SABC studios in outrage after viewing the tape.

He was referring all enquiries to his spokesperson, Senior-Superintendent Mary Martins-Engelbrecht, who was in a meeting and not available.

Gauteng Community Safety MEC Firoz Cachalia, who was out of town attending a three-day executive committee meeting at a game lodge, had not yet seen the footage, and did not know the substance of the allegations against the police, said his spokeserson, Phumla Mthala.

"He therefore cannot comment comprehensively on this issue," she said.

Cachalia had, however, communicated to her that his attitude toward corruption was one of zero-tolerance.

If the allegations were proven to be true, he would expect "swift action" from police leadership, she said.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) has, meanwhile, called for a province-wide probe into crooked officers.

Naidoo must rebuild confidence in Gauteng SAPS

Criticising Naidoo's refusal to comment and his apparent failure to take any action against the officers involved as "not good enough", DA safety spokesperson John Moodey said he needed to act and the public needed to see that he was acting.

"As a first step we suggest the officers caught on camera should be immediately suspended pending an investigation and so should the Station Commissioner," he said.

"The subject is now in the public domain and the investigations cannot happen behind closed doors. Naidoo must start to rebuild confidence in the South African Police Service in Gauteng."

Moodey said reports abounded of police targeting immigrants, both legal and illegal, to extort bribes.

"With this new evidence before us the Commissioner (Naidoo) can no longer keep quiet or hope that it will go away. Neither should he confine his action to those officers caught on camera.

"He should launch an immediate and sweeping investigation of possible bribery by cops across Gauteng. Only then can the public be assured that we are guarded by the good guys rather than by crooks," Moodey said.

News24/SAPA

Diese Gangster wie Kebble und Swanepoel sollte man aufhaengen vor ihren eigenen Minen. IMO

Shares worth $200 million have disappeared from view

By: Barry Sergeant
Posted: '05-SEP-05 16:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Two months ago to the day, Mineweb published an article titled “Kebble’s R1.4-bn conundrum,” detailing “the two sides of how 14 million shares in Randgold Resources, worth $200 million, have apparently gone walkabout.”

There is still no clarity on the shares’ whereabouts.

The original article detailed how 14.4 million of 18.4 million shares Randgold & Exploration (R&E) held in Randgold Resources (a separate company, listed in London and on the US’s Nasdaq) had been “lent” into a black economic empowerment (BEE) transaction, but could not be properly accounted for.

On July 8, Mineweb published a follow-up to its July 5 article, based on an extended interview with Kebble: “R&E CEO Brett Kebble assures that the 18.4 million shares in Randgold Resources are as safe as a palace.”

To this day, there is no further detail on exactly what happened to the “missing” 14.4 million shares in Randgold Resources. There is no question about it: $200 million is a huge amount of money, and even bigger considering that it belongs to shareholders of a listed company.

On August 15, in “Fear and Loathing in Kebbledom,” Mineweb, noting that R&E had crashed 15% on the Monday of that week on Nasdaq, detailed how investors were gathering for an “asset-strip of Kebble-related companies.”

On August 19, in “Mutiny on locked-up bounty,” Mineweb detailed how it was that banks and institutions were offering an R800 million “lifeline” on condition, it was said, that Kebble stepped away from CEO positions of three listed stocks, R&E, JCI and Western Areas.

On August 30, in “Kebble 1, Investec 8,” Mineweb noted how Investec had swept eight board positions at R&E, JCI and Western Areas on the day Kebble stepped down as CEO of all three. That was followed up by an exclusive interview with Stephen Koseff, CEO of Investec, where a number of really tough questions were put and taken.

To this day, to repeat, the most important question in and around the Kebble debacle relates to how the 14.4 million shares in Randgold Resources went “missing,” and perhaps more important, who benefited from the proceeds.

Of the 14.4 million shares under question, as noted by Mineweb on July 5, 9.9 million were lent to Inkwenkwezi, a BEE entity, primarily for the purchase of Anglo American’s 19 million shares held in Western Areas. On July 7, Kebble conceded that the 9.9 million Randgold Resources shares “lent” had in fact been sold, but he also assured that the shares would absolutely be returned to R&E in mid-2006.

More specifically, the 9.9 million shares were “lent” by R&E to Bookmark Holdings, an empowerment vehicle set up to help fund the acquisition by Inkwenkwezi Gold of a 15% stake (17.7 million shares) in Western Areas from (mainly) Anglo American. Mineweb stated that the “missing” Randgold Resources shares “disappeared into a swamp occupied by two names, Bookmark, and a key BEE entity, Inkwenkwezi.”

Again, Mineweb stated on August 15: “However, beneath this seething morass, the links lead back to Inkwenkwezi. It was the 2004 JCI annual report (to March 31), signed off in October last year, which contained clues about the current meltdown in Kebbledom.”

According to JCI, on June 9, 2004, JCI and R&E undertook to lend Inkwenkwezi “sufficient Western Areas shares” to raise the necessary funding for the acquisition of 13.7 million Western Areas shares (11.6% of the total) from Anglo American. Inkwenkwezi, it was said, had to pay Anglo American by November 1, 2004.

Just a few paragraphs later, JCI stated that ‘Inkwenkwezi has a 12-month call option on the Randgold shares,’ yet nowhere else in the annual report were the ‘Randgold shares’ explained. It was apparent from Kebble’s interview on July 7, 2005, that Inkwenkwezi’s 12-month call had been extended from mid-2005 to mid-2006.

According to the Anglo American annual report for 2004, the group disposed of a holding of 8.5% (10 million shares) of Western Areas for $48 million in December 2004. The name of the buyer is not disclosed.

Yet the 2004 Western Areas annual report (covering the 12 months to December 31, 2004), signed off in May 2005, categorically states that Inkwenkwezi “acquired an effective 11.6% of the equity of Western Areas.”

The Western Areas annual report also states: “Inkwenkwezi empowerment transaction successfully restructured and required financing imminent” and “Discussions with an institution to finance Inkwenkwezi’s obligation are progressing, and should be satisfactorily concluded shortly.”

On April 29, it emerged in the R&E preliminary results for 2004 that 9.9 million Randgold Resources shares had been “lent” to Inkwenkwezi. On that day, too, investors were told that Inkwenkwezi’s intended purchase of 19 million Western Areas shares from Anglo American was “currently” in its final stages.

It is quite clear that somebody is not telling the truth. On August 15, Mineweb said that when R&E finally files its 2004 “20-F” annual report with the US’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), “it would be some kind of an ugly swamp creature.” On new information, the filing date could be as early as September 15, and with a restructured board, the 20-F could be less ugly than anticipated. But the fact remains: $200 million is a lot of money.

R&E’s selling down of its stake in Randgold Resources, which was as high as 100% in 1997, has never stopped. As noted by Mineweb on August 15, R&E’s exact existing stake in Randgold Resources was, by all accounts, the “finger on the trigger of pending asset strips in Kebbledom - R&E itself, along with JCI and Western Areas. Kebble ran each as if each were part of an indivisible back yard.”

Today, it would take $201 million to replace the “missing” 14.4 million shares in Randgold Resources. That is lots and lots and lots and lots of money, but who benefited from the sale in the first place? Of the new Investec figures put into the devastated Kebble companies, David Nurek has gone in as independent non-executive chairman of R&E, and Donn Jowell is there as independent non-executive director.

Nurek and Jowell have peerless track records in corporate governance and their combined technocrat (among other) skills will be turning out details on the missing Randgold Resources shares, in due course. Watch this space.

Does Kebble know something he had better explain?

By: Barry Sergeant
Posted: '06-SEP-05 14:49' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- How many individuals know the intimate details of $200 million worth of “missing” Randgold Resources shares in the Brett Kebble debacle? Those shares were once, and may still be, owned by the Kebble clan’s Randgold & Exploration. But that is not immediately clear.

Fact is that it is becoming increasingly apparent that, apart from Kebble and his associate, scertain auditors may well know most of the full story. And; by default, so would certain bankers.

The fact also remains that, despite many requests for clarification from analysts and the media, Kebble and the companies he oversaw have baldly refused to divulge details of those “missing” shares. The result has been a slew of conjecture and rumour. And among that slew is the startling suggestion (and it is no more than an ill-informed suggestion) that they may have been misappropriated.

All that is needed to put paid to the rumours would be for Kebble to come clean or, at least, explain just what is going on. Openness would help protect his reputation from being tarnished or his name from being maligned. But, of course, as yet he has chosen silence. Worse, he has effectively gone into hiding, adding to the suspicions of some or other malfeasance.

Worse still, the audit firms whose responsibilities are to the companies’ creditors and shareholders, appear to have been witting or unwitting parties to the secrecy. Have they been gulled into believing that the Rangold Resources shares actually still belong to Rangold & Exploration when they have been moved out of the company’s control or ownership?

Which is where we come face to face with the enigma that is Kebble’s way of doing business. No serious stockbrokerage provides investment analysis of the Kebble companies. The tangled web of their structures and the fleet-footed management style that has characterized his progression through South Africa’s corporate landscape have been enough to deter even the most foolhardy share tipster. And the “disappearance” of the Randgold Resources shares is yet more confirmation that the investment analysts’ reluctance to make recommendations on companies under Kebble’s control has been the correct approach.

So where does that leave us? On the brink of one of South Africa’s more egregious corporate scandals? Or with egg on our faces for having overlooked simple and credible explanations?

The formal August 30 announcements by the three listed companies from which Brett Kebble stepped down as CEO - Western Areas, JCI Limited and Randgold & Exploration (R&E) - are also well-known for installing Investec-related men in eight board positions at the three companies.

Investec provided a facility that can only be characterized as a lifeline for the triumvirate of inter-related companies. However, the August 30 announcements were silent on the status of the so-called 14.4 million “missing” shares R&E insists that it holds in Randgold Resources, a separate company listed in London and on Nasdaq, a US exchange.

However, again, the announcements gave vital clues as to how the “missing” shares, currently worth $200 million, could be tracked down. JCI’s auditors, Charles Orbach & Company, have been immediately replaced by KPMG, the standing auditors to Western Areas. Somehow, by September 30, KPMG will be appending its corporate name to audited results for JCI’s 2005 year to March 31.

The change in auditors at JCI does nothing, however, to explain the change of auditors at R&E. The R&E 2003 annual report, to December 31, was signed off by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC). The auditors somehow disappeared from the R&E scene during calendar/financial 2004; R&E’s unaudited half-year results were not signed off, or reviewed, by any auditors at all.

It subsequently emerged that PWC had been replaced at R&E by Charles Orbach & Company, whose appointment as auditors to R&E remains, by all accounts, in place.

On April 29, 2005, R&E released its preliminary results for the year to December 31, 2004. The results, according to an R&E announcement of the same date, had “been reviewed by our auditors, Charles Orbach & Company, and a copy of their
unmodified review report on the financial statements contained in this preliminary report is available for inspection.”

Since then, R&E has been unable to produce an annual report, and was suspended from the JSE on August 1. JCI was suspended on the same day for similar reasons.

R&E’s April 29 announcement states quite clearly that R&E holds 18.4 million shares in Randgold Resources. However, on June 30, 2005, Randgold Resources filed its “20-F” annual report with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) in Washington. On page 65 of that filing, Randgold Resources stated in footnote two that Randgold Resources Holdings (RRH) (through which R&E holds its Randgold Resources shares) had filed a Schedule 13G/A on February 14, 2005, which reported beneficial ownership of 18.4 million Randgold Resources shares, or 31% of Randgold Resources’s total outstanding ordinary shares.

Randgold Resources stated categorically in its filing with the SEC that “we have asked [RRH] for documentation supporting its claimed holdings, which to date has not been provided.” In simple terms, it meant that R&E held or holds just 4 million shares in Randgold Resources, explaining the “missing” 14.4 million shares.

In an interview with Mineweb on July 7, Kebble said that 9.9 million Randgold Resources shares (of the missing total of 14.4 million) were lent by R&E to Inkwenkwezi, a black economic empowerment (BEE) entity, primarily for the purchase of the Anglo American shareholding (19 million shares) in Western Areas.

Kebble conceded, however, that the 9.9 million Randgold Resources shares “lent” had been sold, but insisted that the shares would absolutely be returned to R&E in mid-2006. More specifically, the 9.9 million shares were lent by R&E to Bookmark Holdings, a BEE entity itself, to help fund the acquisition by Inkwenkwezi Gold of a 15% stake in Western Areas from (mainly) Anglo American.

However, according to Kebble on July 7, Inkwenkwezi was still finalising the purchase of the 19 million shares in Western Areas. Yet the 2004 Western Areas annual report (covering the 12 months to December 31, 2004), signed off in May 2005, categorically states that Inkwenkwezi “acquired an effective 11.6% of the equity of Western Areas.”

It is of parallel interest to a number of investors that on August 20, 2004, Stephen Tainton joined the board of R&E, having “effectively headed up the worldwide exploration efforts of JCI and its various subsidiaries for the last several years.” When Tainton resigned from the R&E board with effect from April 6, 2005, no reasons were given.

So, Kebble would be best advised to be open or come clean with the shareholders and creditors whose interests were under his watch. His continued silence will simply stoke the fires that are blazing in the furnaces of the rumour mill.

The shares have either been shifted in yet another of Kebble’s convoluted corporate restructurings, or they remain in place though overlooked or they have been sold and the resultant cash can be clearly accounted for. For the present, only Kebble and his associates who were paid enormous salaries and fees seem able to clear up the situation.

Africa unlikely to reach goals

07/09/2005 10:05

Nairobi - Africa is the continent least likely to achieve the United Nations millennium development goals (MDG) aimed at halving extreme poverty by 2015, the UN said on Tuesday.
Ensnared by civil wars, underdevelopment and poor governance, the world's poorest continent trails the rest of the world in overcoming its bedevilling crises, said Ibrahim Gambari, UN under-secretary for political affairs.

"Unlike other continents, if we continue business as usual, Africa is the only continent not likely to meet the number one millennium development goal, which is to reduce the number of those living in extreme poverty by 2015," Gambari said via video conference from New York.

Africa needs international help

Gambari stressed the need to reverse the continent's current trend and called on world leaders to help Africa out of its current situation if it hoped to attain the goals.

"Things have to be done differently in Africa," he said. "The international community needs to help African do things differently in order to be able to meet these major challenges of poverty and under-development."

His calls came as world leaders prepared for next week's UN summit in New York to review progress on the MDGs, discuss the UN's secretary-general's report for the meeting as well as deliberate on the anticipated reforms of the UN.

The MDGs call for 500 million people to be "lifted out of extreme poverty" in the next decade, putting 115 million children put in school, and halting the spread of HIV/Aids.

News24/AFP

Immer schoen innerhalb der Toilettenschuessel bleiben !

Spending bubble could burst:

http://www.finance24.com/artic…ArticleID=1518-25_1766508

Sacob sounds debt alarm:

http://www.finance24.com/artic…ArticleID=1518-25_1765982

A Few Words on Gold Shares
Author: Jim Sinclair

As you can see from this weekend’s work, some of our gold shares drew very dangerous charts just prior to the rally in gold.

Some of the silver shares have done the same. Other precious metal shares such as GG and RGLD took the lead away from the standard large producers in terms of percentage appreciation. The question is WHY?

My take is as follows:

1. The loss taken by NEM on derivatives regardless of how acquired rightly or wrongly has been somewhat shocking to the group.
2. It has been the standard operating practice of the gold industry to finance new projects with lenders on a non-recourse basis. The only way a lender will make a loan on a non-recourse basis is if a short of gold derivative is in place for the duration of the pay-back period thereby relieving the lender of the economic risk of the project.
3. New accounting regulations require companies with short of gold derivatives to apply them as a debit or credit by a mark to market to the specific project for which they were entered into. Because of this, earnings on specific projects may well be injured by a rise in the gold price.
4. Some producers have the short of gold derivative imbedded in the indenture of the loan agreement thereby elevating the need to report except as long term debt. This is not a common practice. This may be a cheeky way to hide the derivative, yet if the loan is non-recourse the derivative is in fact there.
5. The way to know if a derivative risk exists is to ask if the loan is non-recourse for if it is, you have the derivative risk.
6. Juniors are not exempt from this risk as the major handles the project financing. A junior must commit its percentage of the property with a major therefore accepting all the terms of the risk as it pertains to that project according to their percentage ownership of the project. Many juniors do not even realize this.
7. Companies with no derivative risk and are producing have found good sponsorship.
8. The funds always play ABX and NEM regardless. This is because of the liquidity of their respective markets.
9. As in the case of RGLD, the royalty business plan has been discovered by the marketplace as a money maker with no derivative risk, acting as a proxy for gold in the market place.
10. One wonders if silver needs a combination of a busy economic surrounding as well as a weak dollar to perform well. Silver may well be an industrial/monetary metal which needs bunker and Herbert to really perform. No insult intended for the super silver bulls but only a reasonable question to consider.

A Head & Shoulders formation whose measured move on a breakdown of the neckline is zero or more is the scariest thing that can happen to any situation in the marketplace.

Therefore, it is up to you to check the fundamental situation on any item that forms a significant bearish Head & Shoulders, most certainly during the May to present rally in the gold shares as a group. Look for non-recourse loans.

It is also my conclusion that the illegal shorts in the gold group are not shorts among many hedge funds. The shorts were going for the jugular vein on the gold shares when the US economic indices trended negative and the dollar formed its up trending bearish Head & Shoulders.

All this was well before the killer hurricane struck New Orleans. Now of course everything will be blamed on the hurricane including the problems of GM and Ford, if not Asian flu and the mumps.

These shorts can be driven to the wall but it will take a savvy management to recognize the risk and to know how to turn the tide in the benefit of their shareholders. It takes money in the pocket, success on the ground, a good business plan and trading smarts.

Remember when the tide is right, winners continue to win and losers lag no matter what equity group we are discussing

Sterling Mining (Pink Sheets: SRLM)
Market Cap on 7/25/05: $49.50 MM

Sterling Mining is now producing silver from its Baroness Talings Project. The company originally forecasted 30,000 ounces/month of silver based on conservative grades of 2.4 oz per ton (compared to historical data of 3.0 opt). In our last update we provided for these and other factors by further reducing the 360,000 ounce annual production forecast to 200,000. Now that the first set of VATS has been successfully completed the company intends to proceed with its plan to build the second facility. Since production just commenced in Q2 2005, Sterling intends to update projections once it gains additional operating experience at the facility.

Sterling conducted initial tests with material from its San Acacio project and came back with some interesting results. After processing "fines" from the San Acacio dumps and backfill, it has confirmed metallurgical tests that this material is amenable to the leaching process used at Baroness. The company appears to be excited about these findings and believes that there is a real potential to significantly expand production rate in 2006. Sterling already obtained approval from the authorities for a 667 ton per day third facility at the Baroness intended specifically to process San Acacio material. According to Sterling rehabilitation is under way to allow access to lower underground workings. Prior drilling of over 600 meters resulted in an inferred resource of 14.2 million ounces of silver. The Spanish mined 32 million ounces from the San Acacio over hundreds of years, with a cutoff grade of 30 ounces of silver per ton so the company is very optimistic about processing material from San Acacio in the near future.

At the Sunshine the company completed its Phase II Mine Plan, with the final Phase III Mine Plan to be completed in November 2005. Key rehabilitation efforts are ongoing with particular emphasis being placed on the Silver Summit tunnel and hoist. This hoist is necessary for a secondary escape way, i.e. so that the project is not dependent on solely the Jewell shaft (which is currently in operation). In addition to ongoing maintenance and rehabilitation work, the company has contracted an ex-Sunshine geologist to do computer modeling and work on planning the exploration program.

The company retained two high level financial executives including a former treasurer of Coeur D'Alene Mines, so progress towards a higher listing should be forthcoming. Of course, until the company moves up to a higher exchange fund buyers are likely to remain on sidelines, but make no mistake, they are watching this one closely.

Die Goldrunner Theorie....sehr optimistisch !

http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/goldrunner090505.html

UPDATE ON THE HUI

In our first couple of editorials we discussed the HUI index and Silver. It seems that the fractal relationship shown in the first HUI editorial continues to play out. I believe we will see a rather vertical move over the next couple of weeks to approximately the 240ish area. After that, a series of vertical moves might take us to 280ish, and 365ish. At least I have seen nothing that might suggest a change of expectations.

Though we invest longer-term and only sell smaller portions of our core PM holdings at what we consider intermediate tops, we tried to time the last editorial on Silver from a short-term perspective. It seems we were a day early, but if that bottom should hold in the longer time-frames, we will quietly smile, and smile widely…….for "An Explosion IS coming!"

"In Friday's Wall Street Journal, not one article on the New Orleans disaster on page 1 and page 3. On page 2 only one article. Unbelievable ! London's Financial Times had full page 1, 2 and 3 coverage on New Orleans. Can there be any better proof of the state of denial on Wall Street."

That is what MIDAS calls orchestrated denial and repression of facts detrimental to US markets. It is the reason GATA is not even allowed to be mentioned in the US financial market press after all these years, even after holding two major conferences in Durban, South Africa and Dawson City in the Yukon Territory of Canada.

Now to the nitty-gritty of all of this and how (I believe) it is going to affect all of us.

For years it has been my contention (and that of many of my GATA colleagues) that the price of gold would never do anything until one of two events occurred:

Demand for physical gold outstripped what The Gold Cartel was able to secure from the dwindling supply of the central banks.
Some event struck the market which overpowered the Gold Cartel’s massive derivatives operation – meaning financial market events made it impossible for the cabal to manipulate and suppress the gold price any longer.
It seems to me Katrina is such an event and will prove to be the tipping point which will force The Gold Cartel into a Napoleon-like retreat. Why:

* The economic damage resulting from Katrina is likely to be far greater than any other calamity to hit the US. The actual cost of the catastrophe could be 5 to 10 times greater.

*The US will likely print money like crazy to handle the problem. The dollar, in trouble to begin with, is sure to crater in the weeks and months ahead.

*The US economic numbers are going to be horrendous in the months to come.

*Inflation is going to pick up substantially as numerous costs escalate in the US due to the devastating hurricane.

*The US consumer, already saddled with enormous debt and the smallest family savings in history, will be forced to cut back spending as energy costs alone remain very high for the foreseeable future. This reduced spending will have an increased multiplier effect on the US economy.

*Huge energy price increases are going to affect many homeowners. This could easily prick the housing bubble as distressed owners put homes back on the market.

*Various industries will have severe financial problems. The mortgage and banking concerns in the southern gulf area come to mind.

*The US is stretched financially and manpower-wise in Iraq. Katrina exposed how vulnerable we are and there will be more cries to get out of there. If we stay it will lead to further stress on the US financial markets. Leaving in the near future could lead to unbelievable chaos.

*Iraq is near civil war anyway, based on the latest reports … hard to imagine civil war will not erupt by this fall. The reputation of the US, in rapid decline, will plummet, adding more pressure on the dollar and giving additional support to gold.

*Short-term the US stock market could do anything due to the Orwellians pulling the strings. However, it is only a matter of time before it tanks. Foreigners are likely to cut back further with their Treasury purchases, sending US long-term interest rates much higher over the next year.

*Then, there is the inflation,/gold issue. When you step back and look at the big picture, The Gold Cartel’s price suppression scheme could not be more obvious. A picture is worth a thousand words, so let us review the monthly charts of oil and the CRB versus gold’s: