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Positive gold signal remains clear
Barry Sergeant
'08-SEP-05 16:00'
JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --On May 6, Mineweb noted that, for the first time in some two years, Myles Zyblock, RBC Capital Markets chief institutional strategist and director of capital markets research, had identified a “buy” indicator for gold stocks.
According to Zyblock, among numerous indicators monitored regarding gold bullion and gold stocks, the one with the best track record is one of the simplest: the ratio of the dollar gold spot price to the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, known as the XAU.
Zyblock said that when the gold-to-XAU ratio is above 5.0 – an event known for only 12% of the time in the past 22 years - the average annual one-year holding period return for stocks in the XAU has been 38.4%.
According to Zyblock, the gold-to-XAU ratio indicator tells investors to buy gold shares when it’s above 5.0 times, and to sell gold shares when it’s below 3.0, with a one-year holding period in mind. Back in early May, the ratio stood at 5.08, a clearly bullish signal. Zyblock’s bottom line then was “while one indicator is probably not enough to make a huge bet, this one sure provides compelling food for thought.”
Today, Zyblock’s bottom line, by way of an update is that “we continue to like gold and gold shares for the long term. We also see opportunity for investors sensitive to shorter-term cycles. The gold-to-XAU ratio currently stands at 4.54. History argues that buying the XAU when the ratio is hovering near these levels should be profitable on a one-year horizon.”
In his latest analysis, Zyblock notes that gold is now in its sixth year of a secular bull market, and that “if history acts as a useful guide, we could see another 3-5 years of solid performance from gold and gold shares. This positive long-term outlook does not hinge materially on the growth in physical demand for gold. Rather, it’s based on some simple principles of mean reversion and the view that the importance of gold as an alternative investment will grow over time.”
Fundamental underpinnings for this secular thesis rest, argues Zyblock, with the belief that investor confidence in the fiat (paper) money system’s ability to preserve economic value “will be shaken even further.” He argues, further, that “a gradual decay in sentiment is likely to provide an important lift for gold.”
Examination of recent stock price performances shows that while gold equities (and indeed gold bullion itself) “might be traversing through the middle phase of a secular bull market, it is also important for us as investors to be mindful of the shorter cycles.”
Zyblock says that at 4.54, the gold-to-XAU has been this high “only 27% of the time in the past 22 years.” The average annual one-year holding period return for the XAU subsequent to the ratio near its current level has been 20.8%. Importantly, 84% of the time it has been profitable to buy the XAU and hold it for a year when the ratio is where it is today.
Zyblock reminds that “a good time” to lock in profits from the XAU is when the gold-to-XAU ratio falls below 4.0. Accordingly, Zyblock concludes, perhaps conservatively, that “we believe that investors should continue to hold onto their gold shares.”
The 13 constituents of the XAU: Barrick, Agnico Eagle, AngloGold Ashanti, Freeport McMoran, Gold Fields, Goldcorp, Glamis Gold, Harmony Gold, Kinross Gold, Meridian Gold, Newmont, Pan American Silver, and Placer Dome.
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