Beiträge von Edel Man

  • Cortez Trend - Nevada

    Moin!


    CGR : Hab den Boden auch langfristig gemeint,auch "Wanne".


    WKR: Müsste mir allein vom Namen her gefallen,der freie Ritter. ;)


    Hast schon nen schönen Anteil Amerikanerinnen im Harem, Aladin!
    Auch ich denke,daß diese mit zunehmender Reife immer hübscher werden. :]


    Ja,Nevada / Cortez - Trend wird sicher noch viel Freude bereiten.


    Grüsse

  • Cortez Trend - Nevada

    frr


    Es gibt 2 CGR ;)
    Claude Resources/AMEX
    Coral Gold/Vancover


    Meinst natürlich CGR/V :]
    Zuletzt gut gelaufen.Wußten Insider schon mehr?


    Ein Kauf?Kommen von 5,6C$.Auf meiner Cortez-List.
    Schöne Bodenbildung.


    Grüsse

  • Cortez Trend - Nevada

    Aladin
    valueman


    Kleines Mis(t)verständnis,Aladin,sorry.
    Bin hoch investiert, aber, wie früher erwähnt,
    paßt mal so´n Zwerg oder Elfe rein.


    USGL!! :(
    Erinnere ich mich unserer tagelangen Debatten
    um das für und wider gemeinsam mit Tschonko.


    Die war vor einigen Tagen runter auf so 1,4$.
    Ärgere mich sehr,da nicht zugepackt zu haben.
    Da schlag ich noch kurzfristig zu,ganz gutes Gefühl hierbei.


    Grüsse und
    Schönes Wochende ebenfalls.

  • Uranaktien: Minen, Explorer, Produzenten, Anwender

    Und was für Skeptiker ;)


    "Der Hund wedelt mit dem Schwanz"


    Hoffentlich auch mal in deutscher Fassung.
    Van Eden zeigt auch die Risiken dieses Sektors auf.


    Grüsse
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    Uranium: a tale of tails
    September 02, 2005


    In the uranium market the tails wag the dog. If you don’t understand tails assays you will have a tough time understanding the uranium price. I used to be extremely bullish on uranium, believing that the current primary supply deficit, in conjunction with rising demand as new nuclear reactors come online will lead to much higher uranium prices. But after I gained a better understanding of how uranium is processed and how those processes impact the uranium price, I have become much less sanguine about the prospect of a further, near-term increase in the uranium price.


    The bullish case for uranium stems from the fact that the world consumes in the order of 180 million pounds of uranium (U3O8 ) per year while mines supply only about half of that. The balance comes from secondary supplies such as utility stockpiles, the blending down of highly enriched weapons grade uranium and reprocessing of spent fuels and tails. Military and civilian inventories are by far the largest source of secondary uranium supply.


    Because uranium consumption is so much greater than mine production, and because inventories are finite, it can be argued that the uranium price has to increase until mine production more closely matches demand. I agree, which is why I own uranium companies and am interested in the uranium sector, but that is a long-term view. Markets seldom move up (or down) in a straight line. The question is whether the uranium price will continue its rise from here or whether we could be due for a correction.


    Uranium bulls argue that the squeeze has only just begun because the market is already tight (as shown by the increase in price) and, depending on who you believe, that there could be as many as three new reactors built every year for the next twenty years. Therefore, the demand is going to increase.


    There are about thirty new reactors under construction in twelve different countries at the moment with announced plans for 15 to 20 more. Current estimates of supply and demand show that there is already a shortage of uranium to meet the increasing demand.


    In anticipation of a supply shortage investment funds have been buying physical uranium with the intent of hoarding it and selling it later at a profit. The recent increase in the uranium spot price from $22 a pound to $29 a pound can be attributed to purchases by a single investment company in Canada called Uranium Participation Company (UPC).


    In light of such bullish fundamentals it is easy to see why some investors are optimistic about the uranium price. I was very optimistic too, until I started understanding uranium tails.


    There are three natural isotopes of uranium: U(234), U(235) and U(238 ). The natural abundance of U(234) is so small that we can ignore it. For our purposes natural uranium contains 99.29% U(238 ) and 0.71% U(235). Both uranium isotopes decay very slowly by emitting an alpha particle; however, if U(235) captures a neutron it rapidly splits in two, releasing a large amount of energy and more neutrons. This is called fission and it is the process that generates energy for nuclear power plants.


    With the exception of CANDU reactors used in Canada and the smallish pressurized heavy water cooled reactors (PHWR) used in India, most nuclear reactors in the rest of the world are light water reactors (LWRs). LWRs cannot operate with natural uranium because the abundance of U(235) is too low. The natural uranium therefore has to be enriched in U(235) so that the “fuel” contains between 3% and 5% U(235) and enrichment is the next key to understanding the uranium price.


    Enrichment services are sold in separative work units, or SWUs, and now you have to pay attention.


    When you create uranium fuel enriched in U(235) you generate uranium waste that is depleted in U(235). This depleted uranium is called the tails. The further you drive the enrichment process -- in other words, the more SWUs you use -- the less U(235) is left in the tails. The amount of U(235) left in the tails is called the tails assay.


    As you can imagine, there is an optimal amount of enrichment a utility fuel buyer should use depending on the price of SWUs, and an optimal amount of uranium he should use depending on the price of uranium. If the price of uranium is low then a nuclear fuel buyer will typically use less SWUs and more uranium to make his fuel. But when the price of uranium is high, as it is now relative to two years ago, he will use less uranium and more SWUs to make fuel. How much SWUs he uses is specified by the tails assays, in other words he tells the enrichment company by how much to deplete the tails in U(235). If he specifies a high tails assay (lots of U(235) left in the tails) he uses more uranium and less SWUs. If he specifies a low tails assay (very little U(235) left in the tails) he uses less uranium and more SWUs. The "optimal tails assay" is that which gives the lowest overall, combined, cost for the uranium and SWUs in his finished fuel.


    There is another intermediate process that we do not need to concern ourselves with right now called conversion. Conversion is necessary before we can enrich the uranium but all we need to know is that the price of conversion is about $11.50 per kilogram of uranium.


    SWUs cost about $113 right now and so here is what you need to understand.


    In the past, because the uranium price was much lower than it is today, analysts constructed uranium supply and demand curves based on a tails assay of about 0.33%. That is a relatively high tails assay, meaning there is a lot of U(235) left in the tails. Assuming a conversion price of $12 a kilogram and a SWU price of $110 (essentially current prices) a uranium price of $25 per pound would imply an optimal tails assay of 0.27%. At a uranium price of $30 a pound (the current price) the optimal tails assay would be 0.25%.


    Decreasing the tails assay from 0.33% to 0.25% implies a 15% decline in the demand for uranium (U3O8 ).


    Right now, most analysts are still looking at supply and demand curves based on tails assays of 0.33%. At some point those demand curves will have to be updated for lower tails assays and when we drop demand by 15% the uranium market is no longer in deficit. Sure, primary supply is still less than demand but instead of a crunch developing in the near term, it is delayed by up to seven years.


    Now the question becomes, what will investment funds such as UPC do when the uranium they bought does not appreciate for five to seven years? Will they be patient and hold onto it, or will they sell it? If they sell it, the uranium spot price could easily collapse since it’s a thin market.


    The other thing you have to realize is that the uranium price will not continue to rise and rise and rise. The higher the uranium price gets the lower the tails assays become and the less uranium is required to make fuel.


    Since 2001 the price of uranium has increased by over 300% (from $7 a pound to $30 a pound) but the price of SWUs has hardly budged. That means we do not have an enrichment capacity constraint in the uranium market yet and until we do you should expect lower tails assays in response to higher uranium prices.


    I don’t pretend to know how high the price of uranium will go, or when it will correct, or even if it will correct. What I do know is that there is systemic risk in the uranium market that very few people seem to understand. When you invest without understanding your market you are taking more risk than what is necessary, or prudent.


    I will be in Las Vegas for the Gold and Precious Metals Investment Conference next week, so there will be no commentary next Friday. I hope to see you there.


    Paul van Eeden
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  • Cortez Trend - Nevada

    MAD


    War es wohl oder doch nicht? :]


    Habe mir gestern einige Miranda / MAD eingefangen mit 1,03 C$
    Wollte unbedingt nochn Zwerg haben in meinem Rennstall.


    Ist schon gut gelaufen, aber bei Überzeugung gilt:


    "Remember that stocks are never to high for you to begin buying or too low to beginn selling."
    J.Livermore


    Grüsse

  • Idaho Silver Valley

    Na endlich bwegt sich SRLM nach oben,
    hängt wohl mit Tschonkos Urlaub zusammen! :]


    Ist natürlich Spaß.Die Pressemitteilung über die Anomalien warns wohl.


    Fand heute früh einen bemerkenswerten Beitrag von Thaui Guru vom 7.03.2004,den ich auszugsweise reinstelle(OK,Thai?)
    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
    Meine Langzeit Anlagestrategie bei Gold, und auch Silberminen jedoch ist eine andere.


    Bis auf eine Ausnahme der in Thailand gehandelten anstehenden Goldmine *THL.BK* http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=THL.BK&t=1y trade ich nicht. Mit Ausnahme von VEGA ATLANTIC *VATL* und *SRLM* habe ich auch noch nie Gewinne mitgenommen. Bei *VATL* die es heute als Goldexplorer nicht mehr gibt wars sehr gut, bei der STERLING MINING *SRLM* http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SRLM.PK&t=1y habe ich es bereits schon bereut, dass ich Teilgewinne mitgenommen habe, obwohl die Mine bereits über 3000% Preissteigerung hinter sich hat, jedoch meiner Meinung nach, noch lange nicht die Fahnenstange erreicht hat.


    Die grosse Mehrzahl meiner Gold und Silber Aktien besitze ich alle noch. Zudem kaufe ich auch heute noch weitere Gold, und Silber Minen meinen finanziellen Möglichkeiten entsprechend, weiter dazu.
    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,


    Grüsse

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Bemerkenswert der Schlussabsatz aus vorerwähntem Artikel:


    Finally, the dollar should fall and gold should rally, due to the poor immediate response of the U.S. government to this building human tragedy. The U.S. Dollar Index should fall to 84.40 and Gold should initially rise to 453.17. A rise in bonds, commodities, and gold is an Intermarket anomaly, but that combination is the likely outcome during the current crisis.


    ***

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    Tschonko


    Grüsse aus dem Norden!
    Mach Dir mal keine Gedanken über die Juniors,
    die machen,was sie (oder mal wir ;) ),wollen.
    valueman weiß,warum die PM´s ansprangen: Dein Urlaub! :]
    Jaja der Wein,legt auch an.
    Laß ihn Dir gut schmecken.


    Weiterhin schönen Urlaub!


    Grüsse
    Edel Man

  • $GOLD:$SILVER Ratio u.a.

    02.09.2005 - 15:57
    GOLD hebt ab
    (©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de/)


    GOLD: 443,40 $ pro Feinunze


    Aktueller Wochenchart (log) seit 01.09.2002 (1 Kerze = 1 Woche)


    Diagnose: GOLD befindet sich seit Dezember 2004 nach einem Hoch bei 456,75 $ in einer Konsolidierungsbewegung innerhalb eines langfristigen Aufwärtstrend. Anfang Juli brach das Metall zum 2. Mal aus der Konsolidierung nach oben. GOLD scheiterte zunächst am Widerstand bei 445,00 $. Erwartungsgemäß fiel GOLD auf die Unterstützungszone beginnend bei 430,00 $. Von dieser aus hebt GOLD wieder deutlich an. Aktuell notiert GOLD wieder am Widerstand bei 445,00 $.


    Prognose: GOLD sollte in den nächsten Woche weiter anziehen. Die nächsten Ziele liegen bei 456,75 $ und später bei ca. 500,00$ Der Ausbruch über 445,00$ sollte eigentlich in diesem Anlauf nur Formsache sein.

  • Cortez Trend - Nevada

    Will McEwen´s Cortez Play Make the Grade ?


    NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Rob McEwen's certainly a man who isnýt shy to take a calculated risk and his track record means several ten thousand investors will follow his lead.


    With his recent acquisition of US Gold [OTCBB:USGL] and his major ownership stake in White Knight Resources [TSX : WKR], McEwen has gone "all-in" on the potential of Nevada's famed Cortez Trend. The Trend is home to a huge infusion of risk capital in the wake of Placer Domeýs [NYSE : PDG; TSX : PDG] recent and spectacular exploration strikes in this prolific gold producing area.


    While investors have rushed to grab up shares even remotely linked to McEwenýs Midas Touch, one industry insider recently told Resource Investor that there are good reasons for US Gold's years at the bottom of the bargain bin.


    Strength of Assets?


    US Gold's main asset is its Tonkin Springs property, which contains an estimated 1.2 million ounce resource base near to Placer Dome and Rio Tinto's [NYSE:RTP] mammoth Cortez Hills deposit. The potential of US Gold and the surrounding Cortez Trend has been energetically promoted by the gold community since the rich discovery at Cortez Hills a few years ago.


    Itýs not that simple according to an accomplished geologist who has visited Tonkin Springs at least a dozen times since the mid-1980s. He says the geology at Tonkin is "different, in a negative way, from Cortez." The problem, according to our source (who asked to remain unnamed because he is active in the industry) may simply be a question of geology.


    Gold deposits within the Cortez and Carlin trends in Nevada, two of the region's most prolific gold zones, generally occur within carbonates (limestone) referred to as 'lower plate' rocks. In most regions, any lower plate rock is buried under substantial amounts of 'upper plate' rock (shale, limestone, or chert). At certain major deposits - such as Cortez Hills - geological activity has exposed portions of lower plate rocks, bringing them closer to the surface.


    The existing gold mineralization at Tonkin is largely upper plate rock, and as of yet, Tonkin doesn't exhibit the prospective lower plate rock, although some may occur at an unspecified depth. But even if lower plate rock exists beneath Tonkin, there's no guarantee that it contains the value of gold more typical of the cash generating mines in the area.


    Even more problematic, according to our source, is the fact that Tonkin has "none of the more receptive lower-plate carbonate facies within drill reach." In short, the upper plate prospects are not that exciting and the lower plate targets are strictly hypothetical.


    McEwen dismissed the skepticism, noting that Tonkin was an ýunder explored areaý that has not yet been fully mapped. As such, he added, it would be difficult to make any definitive claims about the existence of a reachable lower plate deposit.


    ýThereýs no evidence that it [prospective lower plate rock] doesnýt exist because no oneýs ever tested to that depth,ý McEwen added. Parts of Cortez Hills deposits, he noted, donýt begin until a depth of 600 feet to 800 feet, and only limited sections of Tonkin have been drilled that deep.


    But there is another aspect of Tonkin's geology that is unusual relative to proven economic deposits in the area. Major gold deposits within Cortez and Carlin have almost always occurred within close proximity to two perpendicular faults that formed at the same point in time (known as a 'conjugate.') While some individuals have claimed the existence of conjugate faults at Tonkin, according to our source's analysis there is no clear evidence of such features yet, which is cause for investors to give pause.


    McEwen responded by noting that geologists ýhavenýt totally figured out the model yetý for these type of deposits.


    Our source says the immediate comparisons are the Rossi and Ivanhoe deposits which are seeking lower plate facies to offset mediocre grades and tonnages.


    The Limits of Tonkinýs Existing Resource Base


    The accepted interpretation of the geology becomes irrelevant though if the upper plate rocks have the right grades. After all, mining at a shallower depth is cheaper in any currency. As with most every exploration project, it is 99% about ore grade.


    When it comes to grading Tonkinýs existing upper plate resource, the difference between the property and Cortez Hills is night and day. In a 2004 feasibility study, grading for measured and indicated resources at Tonkin was 0.043 ounces per tonne (or about $19 of gold/tonne), while for mineable reserves it was .061 ounces per ton (or about $26 of gold/ton). Cortez Hillsý proven mineral reserves alone have a grading of 0.169 ounces per ton (or about $74 of gold/ton).


    When coupled with the fact that Cortez Hills proven reserves are 3.4 million ounces, while Tonkinýs mineable reserves are 646,000 ounces, the differences are obvious


    But, according to McEwen, Tonkinýs upper plate resources are not where the propertyýs true value lies. ýYouýre not looking to enhance the surface resources [with this property] youýre looking for [another] Cortez Hills.ý


    ýWhen I looked at the Carlin and Battle Mountain-Cortez Trend, I then looked at Tonkin Springs,ý added McEwen, ýand I thought: thereýs been a lot of activity [at Tonkin] but all of it has been near the surface.ý Just as with Red Lake, McEwen believes that Tonkinýs true value may be unlocked by going deep underground to uncover higher-grade deposits.


    Investor Optimism


    Whatever the potential of US Gold's assets, investors have jumped into US Gold's stock in a big way since McEwen, one of gold mining's biggest celebrities, took the helm.


    Under previous management, the quality of the company's assets was largely ignored by investors, who let the shares idle below the $1 range for most of the past decade. Since McEwen took the reigns, however, the company's shares have surged form $0.50 to as high as $2.19, before recently settling at $1.45. In any event, the market obviously believes that the McEwen can extract the value from Tonkin that long eluded US Gold.


    McEwen himself seemed to second those claims. ýAs everybody knows,ý he said, ýexploration has a low rate of success ý but the way you start improving your odds in going somewhere that raises your probability. You have to look at it [Tonkin] and say, youýre in the right state, youýve got structures nearbyýwhere else do you want to spend your exploration money?ý


    Investors would also do well to remember that McEwen purchased his 33.3% interest in US Gold via a private placement that netted him 11.1 million shares for $4 million. In short, McEwen made his purchase at about $0.36 per share, or 25% of the company's price today, barely one month later. It seems logical to assume that McEwen, the mining investment genius, purchased the company's shares at what he considered a reasonable value. Can the same be said for the investors who have since bought shares?


    Immediately after news of McEwen's purchase broke, several other Nevada-oriented explorers also saw their shares rise in sympathy. The speculation was two-fold: that the market has been collectively underestimating the potential of Nevada exploration, and that McEwen would continue his Nevada acquisition spree.


    In the days immediately after the news, shares of Nevada Pacific Gold [TSXV:NPG] surged from about C$0.70 to C$0.91, shares of Miranda Gold Corp. [TSXV:MAD] moved from C$0.75 to C$0.85 and shares of Victoria Resource Corp [TSXV:VIT] went from C$0.47 to C$0.57. While all of the shares have since settled back down, the market's signal was clear.


    Conclusion


    One geologist's opinion is unlikely to make or break US Gold's success. Indeed, Rob McEwen made a regular practice of proving the experts wrong during his time developing Red Lake for Goldcorp. Investors would certainly love to see him do it again with Tonkin, but they would also be wise to understand the nature of the bet.

    ResourceInvestor.com powered by the AbsolPublisher Web Content Management System.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    .......+30% in Riyadh


    Nun, mühsam bewegt sich was.
    Die Jungs merken wohl etwas!!
    Hoffenlich auch Gold andernorts. ;)


    Grüsse
    .................................................
    Friday, 2, September, 2005 (28, Rajab, 1426)

    Gold Sales Up by 30 Percent in Riyadh
    Arab News


    RIYADH, 2 September 2005 — Experts in the gold market in Riyadh have reassured that the prices of gold are stable despite the high increase in oil prices, Al-Riyadh reported. The price per gram of pure gold ranged between SR45.5 and SR46. An expert in the gold market told Al-Riyadh that the prices were stable since the beginning of summer. He also said that the sales of gold were up this summer season by 30 percent compared with same period last year.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Bei Bloomberg!
    ...............................
    Gold May Climb to $500 an Ounce Within Six Months, GFMS Says


    Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The gold price may rise as high as $500 an ounce over the next six months as investors sell U.S. assets, said Paul Walker, chief executive of GFMS Ltd., a London- based precious-metals research company.


    ``The U.S. is in some serious trouble,'' Walker said today in an interview on the sidelines of a gold investment conference in Cape Town, South Africa. ``The real kicker for gold over the next six to 12 months is the dollar.''


    The price of bullion has surged 43 percent in the past three years. Gold gained $2.90, or 0.7 percent, to $446.15 an ounce at 10:38 a.m. in London.


    Rising energy prices may slow U.S. growth and boost the precious metal's appeal as a haven investment. The dollar headed for its biggest weekly loss in four against the euro.


    ``The floor for the gold price is $420 to $425'' an ounce, Walker told the gold investment conference. ``At these prices, jewelry demand is very robust.''


    Gold production in South Africa, the world's largest producer, is expected to decline this year as increased production costs and the strength of the rand against the dollar makes some mines unviable, Walker said.


    ``In 2005, we are on track to lose 50 tons of production,'' said Walker. Total production is likely to fall to under 300 tons this year, he added.


    South African gold output in 2004 was 342.7 tons, the lowest since 1931.


    To contact the reporter on this story:
    Mike Cohen in Cape Town at mcohen21@bloomberg.net


    Last Updated: September 2, 2005 05:55 EDT


    Click Here
    ©2005 Bloomberg L.P.