Goldcorp (GG) will Wheaton (WHT) übernehmen

Hier die dazugehörige meldung:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041205…atonriver_goldcorp_2.html

Endlich eine Übernahme, die Sinn macht.
Die passen ganz gut zusammen. WHT hat viele Gebiete in Südamerika, whärend GG nur in USA u. kanada Gebiete hatte.
Außerdem gefällt mir die Politk von GG, physisches Gold zu halten.

Bin diesmal nicht betroffen, da ich vor 2 Monaten WHT verkaufte und dann GG kaufte.

Tschonko

Ein Artikel von Ed Bugos zu dem Thema.
Der hält auch viel von dem Zusammenschluss.
Da entsteht was Solides.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/bugos120704.html

Tschonko

Nun hat Glamis GLG ein übernahmeangebot für Goldcorp GG gestellt.
Damit dürft die WHT Übernahme scheitern.
Hätte mir gefallen.
Das Glamis Angebot werde ich jedenfalls annehmen, hoffe die Philosophie von GG bleibt erhalten, nämlich einen Teil der jährlichen Goldmenge physich zu halten.

Hier der Link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/041216/165252_1.html

Tschonko

Also zum Jahresschluss gelingt es denen,
mich komplett zu verwirren.

WHT und GG haben definitive Vereinbarung unterzeichnet.
4 WHT für eine GG.
WHT: 3,19$
GG: 15,34$

Entweder fällt GG jetzt wieder oder WHT steigt.
Wie die Geschichte mit Glamis weitergeht, entzieht sich meiner Kenntnis.
Ziehen die beiden das durch ist Glamis draußen.
31.1.05: Versammlung der GG Aktionäre. Einfache Mehrheit genügt.

Hier der Link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041223/to255_1.html

Festliche Grüße
Tschonko

Glamis hat das Vorhaben, GG zu übernehmen, bekräftigt.

Siehe Link: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/041224/245056_1.html

Zu den alten Bedingungen: 0,89 GLG für eine GG.

Die Börse scheint aber eher dem Deal GG/WHT zu trauen,
weil GG nicht fällt und WHT steigt.
Gefällt mir auch besser, obwohl ich gegen die andere Version auch nichts hätte.
Jedenfalls vielfach besser als die unsinnigen Versuche CDE/WHT
und HMY/GFI (vielleicht gibt es da noch eine Überraschung).

Tschonko

Am 31.1. dürfen die Aktionäre von GG entscheiden, welchen Deal sie bevorzugen. Einfache Mehrheit genügt.
Auflage für WHT-Deal: drei Viertel der aktien müssen zu GG.
(im Verhältnis 1:4)
Link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041227/gold_merger_3.html

Tschonko

Glamis bestätigt das Übernahmeangebot für goldcorp:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050107/75250_1.html

Meiner Ansicht ein angebot, das man annehmen kann.
Die Aktionäre werden entscheiden, ich nehme an für Glamis.
Wer schnappt sich dann WHT??

Tschonko

Goldcorp (GG) hat nun das meeting (Aktionärsentscheidung pro od. contra Wheaton) vom 31.1. auf 10.2 verschoben , um den aktionären mehr Zeit zu geben.

Außerdem kann man zu diesem Zeitpunkt schon einsehen, inwieweit die WHT Aktionäre das umtauschangebot annehmen (4:1). frist ist hier der 14.2.

Zur Erinnerung: Glamis kann ja bei GG nur zum Zug kommen, wenn der WHT Deal misslingt.
Chancen stehen wieder etwas besser, dass GG-WHT was wird.
Eventuell kommt auch noch ein verbessertes Angebot, wenn es beim ersten Mal nicht klappt.

Tschonko

http://www.marketwatch.com/new…%2D95C5%2D1C0774EC4DE1%7D

GG Shareholder haben sich mit 65% für den WHT Deal entschieden.

Damit ist Glamis aus dem Rennen. Fein!

Es steht noch die Entscheidung der WHT shareholder aus.
Als Formsache würde ich sie nicht bezeichnen.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/finan…14-39-37_tor000125_newsml

Tschonko

Also jetzt ist der Deal durch. GG hat 69% und verlängert bis Ende Feb.
Da kommt der Rest rein für die geforderten 75%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050214/gold_fight_3.html

Mc Ewen und Telfer sind ein gutes gespann. Ich erwarte noch eine Übernahme in diesem Jahr.
Über mögliche Kandidaten darf spekuliert werden.

Tschonko

GG hat inzwischen 70%.

Hier noch ein Artikel (Auszug) zur Spekulation, wie sich das Übernahmekarussell weiterdrehen könnte.
GG hat inzwischen selbst schon bestätigt, weiter Ausschau zu halten.

18.2.05: von Nicole Mordant

FOCUS ON MID-SIZED MINERS

Analysts expect most of the merger action to be around mid-sized producers like Agnico-Eagle Ltd. (AGE.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , Iamgold, Kinross Gold Corp. (K.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) and the newly enlarged Goldcorp, which has already said it's scouting for an acquisition or two this year.

"A lot of these guys have lived off a quality asset, but to build the business beyond that is very difficult," said Darko Kuzmanovic, who manages the Prudent Global Gold Fund and Prudent Global Natural Resources Fund at David W. Tice & Associates.

"That's why I think it's easier for them to consolidate rather than to take the risk that a Meridian took," he said, referring to Meridian Gold Inc.'s (MDG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) run-in with environmentalists and local residents in Argentina, which shut down its Esquel development.

UBS analyst Tony Lesiak suggests a marriage between the "New Goldcorp" and Agnico-Eagle, as the target's production fits the size Goldcorp-Wheaton are looking for, both firms produce base metals in addition to gold, and Agnico has some useful tax pools.

Kuzmanovic suggests the mid-tiers could buy smaller exploration companies with big in-development projects, but only once these ventures are fully permitted and less risky.

Names that come up include Crystallex International Corp. (KRY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) and its Las Cristinas project in Venezuela, Gabriel Resources Ltd. (GBU.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) and its Rosia Montana find in Romania, as well as Minefinders Corp Ltd. (MFL.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , and Gammon Lake Resources Inc. (GAM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) .

The push for relationships could also come from the juniors' side because of the rocketing costs for building mines as steel and energy prices soar, says John Bowles, British Columbia mining practice leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

"There are a lot of small companies with big projects and, with prices where they are going, they are looking for partners to develop them," Bowles told Reuters.

Whatever happens, investment bankers, lawyers and journalists are likely to be kept busy again this year.

(Bay St. Week Ahead appears weekly. Comments or questions can be e-mailed to nicole.mordant@reuters.com)

Tschonko
Hat wer Tips, wer wen......??
An Agnico glaub ich nicht, eher geht es in Richtung Südamerika.

Im letzten Quartal hat GG wieder 52.497 oz. nicht verkauft, was den gewinn schmälert, wie Analysten bekritteln.
Insgesamt werden nun schon 221220 oz. Gold zurückgehalten.

Rob Mc Ewen erwartet eben einen höheren goldpreis. Und sie haben Gold statt Dollars, was ja sehr gescheit ist.
Cash haben sie auch noch genug.

Eine Strategie, die aufgehen könnte.

Die WHT Produktion soll insgesamt verkauft werden.

Schade, dass sich niemand an der Übernahmespekulation beteiligt.
Wer wird als Nächster von GG eingesackt?

Tschonko

Goldcorp profit drops as gold withheld from market
Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:18 AM ET
(Recasts with conference call. Changes dateline, previous TORONTO. In U.S. dollars unless noted)
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Profit at Goldcorp Inc. (G.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , a mid-sized gold producer that clinched a $2 billion takeover of Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. (WRM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) earlier this month, fell in the fourth quarter as it continued to refrain from selling all the metal it mined.

As promised, the Toronto-based company held back almost a third of its output, an unusual practice started by Goldcorp's chief executive to delay paying tax and in the belief that gold prices will rise, making the cache worth more.

Chief executive Rob McEwen said Goldcorp was reviewing how much output to hold back this year but that gold and copper production from Wheaton River, which will be blended into Goldcorp by the end of April, would likely be sold as per normal.

"At the moment that would be the plan," McEwen said in response to a question on a conference call with analysts.

Goldcorp's stock jumped 59 Canadian cents, or 3.6 percent, to C$17.09 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday morning, rising with other gold shares as bullion prices hit their best level this year.

Shareholders of Wheaton River last week backed Goldcorp's takeover, creating a new company that will rank as North America's fifth-biggest gold miner and the world's lowest-cost million-ounce-a-year producer.

McEwen said he didn't expect more than $5 million a year of cost savings from the takeover as mining companies with diverse global assets have few synergies. Some money would be saved from a single stock market listing and paring down the Toronto head office.

Ian Telfer, Wheaton River's CEO and the anointed CEO of the merged company, was also on the conference call.

Late on Monday, Goldcorp, which owns the high-grade, low-cost Red Lake gold mine in Northern Ontario, reported earnings of $15 million, or 8 cents a share, in the three months to the end of December.

That compared with analysts' expectations of 9 cents a share, and was well down from $43.3 million, or 22 cents a share, in the year-before period.

The company withheld from sale 52,497 ounces, or 32 percent, of the 166,254 ounces of gold it produced between October and Dec. 31. In the same period in 2003, output was 158,289 ounces.

Goldcorp said it now has 221,220 ounces of bullion in its treasury, which is worth more than $96 million and is more gold than the government of Canada holds.

It cost Goldcorp, one of the world's lowest-cost producers, $127 to produce an ounce of gold during the quarter, up from $95 per ounce in the year-ago period.

Goldcorp's gold reserves remained steady at 5.2 million ounces as the company found more metal through exploration and used a higher bullion price to calculate unmined ounces.

GG hat 82% der WHT Shares. Übernahme geglückt.

GG wird noch zu beachten sein in den folgenden Jahren.

Eine feine Übernahme nochj, dann soll es aber genug sein.
wahrscheinlich schon heuer.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050301/15557_1.html

Tschonko

Telfer und Mc Ewen sind schlaue Burschen.
Aktien werden zurückgekauft.

Der WHT Deal ging über Aktien.
Mit Cash werden Aktien zurückgekauft und die nächste Übernahme finanziert.

Für mich schon jetzt eine der solidesten goldminen weltweit.
Um GG wird man nicht mehr vorbeikommen.
GG und GFI und Kinross sind meine Klötze, sonst nur Ponys.
(Wem die Ponys nichts sagen, guckt beim thread: Juniors in Canada)

Mc Ewen ist geistig schon im Jahre 2007/08.
Jedenfalls ist das seiner Strategie zu entnehmen.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/finan…16-51-11_n02450513_newsml

Tschonko

Der neue CEO Telfer (von WHT) verkauft gleich mal das zurückgehaltene Gold, um eine neue Mine in Mexico zu finanzieren.
Gefällt mir nicht. Die Politik fand ich ausgezeichnet.
Was sagt da Mc Ewen???

Kaum Chef, sagt er was anderes, das kennen wir schon.
"A New York gold analyst said the change of direction for Goldcorp might not please everyone, especially as Telfer had insisted during the Goldcorp-Wheaton courting process that he supported Goldcorp's practice of gold hoarding."

Gut, dafür kriegen sie 2,4 Mill oz. im Boden.

Die Meldung:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/finan…23-49-07_n22449797_newsml

Weiters noch ein bericht über GG:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/er032005.html

Tschonko

@eldo,
ja KGC hab ich auch noch. Leider.

Hier geht es aber um GG. Die hab ich auch.
Dass die ihren physischenBestand aufgeben, passt mir gar nicht.
Wie kann ich mich beschweren?

Grüße
Tschonko

vom 21.3.05: gold-eagle.
Kommentar dazu später.

GOLDCORP

Due diligence.
Research.
Homework.
Fundamental analysis.
Did one or more of the terms above make you cringe? If so, you're just like the rest of us. Oh sure, we all talk a good game; "You gotta do your homework!", "Make sure you research the company fundamentals.", "I've done my DD on this company." - - but do we really? Think of your last five stock purchases. What did you truly know about the companies in question? Did you do any real checking or did you rely on the Yahoo-posted P/E and some guy on a message board (or an economic website...) who claimed to know what he was talking about? Chances are you spent 10-15 minutes glancing over the numbers and decided to make a play. Diversity, right? "Even if this stock doesn't go up at least I'm spreading my money around." Well, you can spread your money around between 50 guys selling "authentic" rolex watches on the streets of New York and it's not going to make you any richer. The corporate world is just as full of crooks and thieves as a bad part of the city - - they're just wearing ties.

What you take from this review should be no different. I make no promises, nor do I claim to have all the answers. What I will be doing is laying out some juicy nuggets of information that I hope will pique your interest enough that you'll suck it up and crunch some numbers yourself.

So - with that all said, let's dive right in.

OPINION ---> If you own only one stock, make it Goldcorp (GG). <--- OPINION

STOP! I know some of you are already about to click away from the page, but I believe that would be a mistake. Give me the chance to finish, ok?

Why Goldcorp? Well, I must admit that it's a catchy name, and it's in my favorite industry, gold....but it just ain't that easy. Let's take a look at some fundamental bits that hopefully aren't too brain-numbing:

Profit: The company is profitable. It's not Yet Another Great Idea (YAGE) that is sucking down investor dollars faster than Bill Clinton goes through interns.

History: Profit is not a new thing to Goldcorp. They have a long history in the industry and a proven track record of wise management decisions.

Debt: There is none. Zip. Zero. Nada. Don't be fooled by phrases like, "Zero net debt" - this means only that the company has less in debt than in assets. Goldcorp has no debt and an open credit line. I imagine they will use it soon - perhaps in acquisitions - but my point is they're not already in debt. They have full purchasing power, and when the right opportunity arises, they're going to take full advantage of it. Oh...I almost forgot. They're also sitting on a 300 million dollar mountain of cash.

Cost: Goldcorp is one of the lowest production-cost gold producers in the world. Officially, it cost them $115 an ounce to pull it out of the ground in 2004. So, for the 628,005 ounces they dug up and processed this past year, it cost them $72,220,575. Assuming an average gold price of $420 (that's a rough estimate for 2004), that is $191,541,525 in profit (($420 - $115) x 628,005). But wait...it gets better...

Smarts: These guys are smart. Just as a prudent worker will save a little bit from each paycheck, Goldcorp saves a little bit from each trip to the mine. Why? Because they believe in their product. They believe gold is in a long-term bull market - - so why sell all of your gold as soon as you mine it when you can hold some back and wait for a better price? As of December 2004 their gold inventory stood at 221,220 ounces of gold. Don't forget - - this gold is already paid for! The $115/ounce is already on the books and done. [Author's note: I have not confirmed this directly with the company - but I would assume that executives smart enough to make this play would not be stupid enough to play accounting games by not putting the mining cost on the books until years later] In a previous article I stated my belief that gold will reach $520 by the end of 2005. If we assume a sale price of $480 (because they're not going to get the ultimate top) that's an additional $106,185,600 in profit! Since there has been no press release stating they've sold their stash, we can only assume it has continued to grow in the last 3 months. Perhaps to as high as 250,000 ounces.

Fairness: While it is the goal of any company to make money, most companies these days refuse to share their wealth with the stockholders who actually own the company. Instead, they either hoard it for themselves, or waste it on ridiculously risky investments or acquisitions, all the while putting out impressive sounding press releases that are completely devoid of substance. "Our stock price is going to go to 8-bajillion dollars a share this year! Get in on the ground floor!" Not Goldcorp - they pay a dividend every month! That's right folks, each and every month they pay out $0.015 a share for an annual dividend of $0.18 per share. What's more, they have promised that as the price of gold goes up, so will their dividends!

So - - how about it? Have I grabbed your attention? Are you willing to do the additional homework? Their website is a wonderful resource - everything I have stated here is available there as well....and a whole bunch more!

I would like to end with two more quick bullets. The difference here is that these use a little bit of guesswork. Educated guesses, but still not cold hard facts.

Goldcorp recently merged with Wheaton River. Wheaton River recently surprised the gold-investment sector with record survey results showing proven and probable gold reserves totalling 5.1 million ounces. (For those keeping score, at $420 an ounce that's $2,142,000,000)

The official statistics show earnings of $0.27 per share and a P/E of 56. Let's assume for a moment that even with the price of gold rising and a merger with another profitable company (Wheaton) that pulled down $0.22/share last year, the earnings stay flat (hahahahahahahaha!!! Sorry...). Don't forget about that quarter million ounces of gold sitting in the vault! That $106,185,600 translates into an additional $0.56 a share for a P/E of 18.26! It would be extremely difficult to work out true numbers for next year as we don't know how many shares will be outstanding after the merger is completed - but suffice to say, I think $0.27/share is a worst-case estimate...I expect earnings to be much higher. Perhaps as high as $0.60/share - - PLUS the saved gold bonus for a total of $1.16/share! That's a four-fold increase over last year!

Sounds pretty good, huh?

So what's the catch? As far as I know, there isn't one. That's not to say it doesn't exist - only that I have done my due diligence and I have yet to find one.

I'll sign off now - I suppose I could do a technical analysis, but to be honest, I don't think that really matters (and I'm a pretty good chartist!). I believe that at the end of this bull market Goldcorp will be standing at the top with the best of them....with the masses crying in their pillows because they didn't pick it up for less than $20/share.

20 March 2005

er@unixgeeks.org
http://er.unixgeeks.org

DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURE: Yes, I own Goldcorp (but not near as much as I'd like to - some of us don't have a fortune, we're trying to build one). No, they didn't pay me to write this - in fact, they have no idea I've written it and for all I know I'll get a "cease and desist" order because I screwed my facts up (I doubt it). I'm not writing this for a "pump and dump" scheme - I can't afford the sheer number of shares it would take for such a plot to be worthwhile. My motivation here is simple - I think this is the Microsoft of the gold world....I'm just spreading the good news.