Baltic Dry Index und andere Indikatoren

EDIT: Forget my post, sorry!

Einen schönen Sonntag wünscht Euch
goldnuss

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/sep302009.html

By Chris Laird

Sep 30 2009 11:57AM

(...)
HTML clipboardThe CRB commodity basket index is heavily oil weighted
but it
covers basic commodities and includes gold. It very much reflects economic
demand and expectations of economic demand. The CRB is not even close to
recovering and is falling. The $BDI
Baltic Dry Shipping index
is falling back
badly again, so demand for shipping containers is way down
too. So much for
economic recovery. Just consider Japan’s 36% drop in exports
year to date as an
example. With the US and Japan in deflation, and they are the world’s two
largest economies (Aside from the EU), the fall of the BDI and CRB clearly show
there is no expected economic recovery near term.

China’s GDP
at very roughly $4 trillion
cannot replace
collapsing demand in the US and Japan with GDPs of roughly $14 trillion for the
US and $4.5 trillion for Japan. So much for China carrying/replacing collapsing
economic demand in the US and Japan, it is not big enough yet and still heavily
dependent on exports to the West.

(...)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/images/sep302009_1.jpg]

(...)

Posted by Arthur Hill at 12:17:57 PM

The Gold ETF (GLD) and the Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (TIP) show a positive correlation over the last few months.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.…70c012876da6203970c-800wi]

[url]http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2010/01/gld-and-tip-move-step-for-step.html[/url]

GLD and TIP move step-for-step

January 15, 2010

The Gold ETF (GLD) and the Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (TIP) show a positive
correlation over the last few months. Both advanced from August to November,
fell in December and bounced in January. Looks like gold is following the
inflation outlook.

Posted by
Arthur Hill at 12:17:57 PM

Comments:

TIP has an average maturity of 8.70 years, while TLT's average maturity is
27.43. to compare apples to apples we should compare TIP to IEF, which has an
average maturity of 8.58 years. You'll see that IEF also hit a higher high at
the end of November. In any case, I think the TIP:IEF ratio
over the past year-2009
or so highlights the prevailing
inflation impluse rather well.

[url]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIP:IEF&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p46379234580[/url]

Posted by:

Kyle Ledbetter |

January 15, 2010 at 06:19 PM

Hier ein ganz interessanter Beitrag über weitere Indikatoren, wenn auch auf USA bezogen.

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Hallo,
von 1871 bis 1914 lag die jährliche Inflationsrate bei 0,5 % *. Und das… Anmelden oder registrieren