Baltic Dry Index und andere Indikatoren

    Liebe Leute,


    aufgrund meiner volkswirtschaftlichen Halbbildung :hae: möchte ich den Experten hier im Forum mal eine Frage stellen:


    Es wurde schon mehrfach auf den Baltic Dry Index als relativ unbestechlichen Indikator für die weltwirtschaftliche Lage hingewiesen.
    siehe z.B. http://www.wikinvest.com/stock…DI_%28BALDRY%29/WikiChart


    Gibt es eurer Meinung nach ähnlich unbestechliche Indikatoren?


    Noch eine andere Frage: ist es eigentlich eine zwangsläufige Notwendigkeit, dass wenn Konjunktur und Wirtschaft wieder anspringen ("Aufschwung" ist da [smilie_happy] ) dann Inflation davon automatisch eine Folge ist? Ist Wirtschaftswachstum AUTOMATISCH mit Inflation und damit steigenden Zinsen verbunden?


    Vielen Dank für jede Antwort!
    Ich bitte mein unsolides Halbwissen zu entschuldigen, halte mich mit 46 Jahren aber weiterhin für lernfähig ... :D


    Besten Gruß
    goldmartin

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/sep302009.html


    By Chris Laird


    Sep 30 2009 11:57AM




    (...)
    HTML clipboardThe CRB commodity basket index is heavily oil weighted
    but it
    covers basic commodities and includes gold. It very much reflects economic
    demand and expectations of economic demand. The CRB is not even close to
    recovering and is falling. The $BDI
    Baltic Dry Shipping index
    is falling back
    badly again    , so demand for shipping containers is way down
    too. So much for
    economic recovery. Just consider Japan’s 36% drop in exports
    year to date     as an
    example. With the US and Japan in deflation, and they are the world’s two
    largest economies (Aside from the EU), the fall of the BDI and CRB clearly show
    there is no expected economic recovery near term.


    China’s GDP
    at very roughly $4 trillion
    cannot replace
    collapsing demand in the US and Japan with GDPs of roughly $14 trillion for the
    US and $4.5 trillion for Japan. So much for China carrying/replacing collapsing
    economic demand in the US and Japan, it is not big enough yet and still heavily
    dependent on exports to the West.


    (...)



    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/images/sep302009_1.jpg]



    (...)

    Posted by Arthur Hill at 12:17:57 PM


    The Gold ETF (GLD) and the Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (TIP) show a positive correlation over the last few months.



    [Blockierte Grafik: http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.…70c012876da6203970c-800wi]





    [url]http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2010/01/gld-and-tip-move-step-for-step.html    [/url]


    GLD and TIP move step-for-step


    January 15, 2010


    The Gold ETF (GLD) and the Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (TIP) show a positive
    correlation over the last few months. Both advanced from August to November,
    fell in December and bounced in January. Looks like gold is following the
    inflation outlook.



    Posted by
    Arthur Hill at 12:17:57 PM




    Comments:


    TIP has an average maturity of 8.70 years, while TLT's average maturity is
    27.43. to compare apples to apples we should compare TIP to IEF, which has an
    average maturity of 8.58 years. You'll see that IEF also hit a higher high at
    the end of November. In any case, I think the TIP:IEF ratio
    over the past year-2009
    or so highlights the prevailing
    inflation impluse     rather well.



    [url]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIP:IEF&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p46379234580    [/url]



    Posted by:

    Kyle Ledbetter     |

    January 15, 2010 at 06:19 PM

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