Zusammenhang Leitzins / Goldpreis? Hab ich einen an der Waffel????

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zwei interessante Charts Zinsen von USA, Japan and Germany seit 1945
hierbei sieht man

die Hochzinsphase in Japan so um 1965
die Hochzinsphase in den USA so um 1980 ( kennen die 50-jährigen unter uns )

1976 war ich 16 Jahre alt, da kaufte ich mir Bundesschatzbriefe ( BRD-Staatsanleihen ) und da gabs
so im ersten Jahr ca. 4,5% und nach sechs Jahren ca. 7% Zinsen Laufzeit maximal 7 Jahre
und nach 12 Monaten kündbar ohne Zinsverlust.

die Niedrigzinsphase so um 2005 ( keine zeitgenaue Angabe, dient nur als Richtwert )

http://kingworldnews.com/kingw…old_%26_Silver_Bulls.html
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This breaks every single economic law there is. You can’t have unlimited credit expansion and record low rates. This is totally unreal and unsustainable. When borrowings are high, the rates must be high as well. This the law of supply and demand.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/25_3_Incredibly_Key_Charts_For_Battered_Gold_%26_Silver_Bulls_files/KWN%20Greyerz%2013.jpg]

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The fundamentals for gold could not be better. Real interest rates are deeply negative:

http://www.goldnews.com/2013/0…ys-gold-prices-to-follow/

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold.net/static/images/screenshots/real-interest-rates-vs-gold.png]

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Ein uneingeschränktes Ja

Du hast was an der Waffel

Die Einen denken, die Anderen lenken .

Das zu begreifen ist allerdings schwierig

Nachtwächter

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http://www.goldmoney.com/de/go…-ausweg-fuer-die-fed.html

http://www.goldseiten.de/artik…-Ausweg-fuer-die-Fed.html

Die simple Erkenntnis lautet: Zentralbanken können keine normalen Zinsen zulassen, da die überschuldeten Staaten unter den höheren Zinsen zerbrechen würden. Die Realzinsen werden auf Dauer negativ bleiben.
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negativ real-interest-rates

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1362430800.php

[Blockierte Grafik: http://67.19.64.18/news/2013/3-4bv.png]
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Charts verfügbar:

The Coming Crash in the Bond Market

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1363011300.php

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http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/inflation-fear/4328

[Blockierte Grafik: https://images.angelpub.com/2012/47/17240/dehaemer_chart_1120.png]

und immer schön den staatlichen Inflationszahlen glauben
an der Tankstelle bekommt man die Rechnung !!!

real-interest-rates

page-27

In GOLD we TRUST 2013 – Extended Version

Negative Real Interest Rates as the Perfect
Backdrop for Gold

http://www.incrementum.li/wp-c…RUST_2013_Incrementum.pdf

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hier nochmal in deutscher Sprache

Seite-24 negative Realzinsen sind positiv für den Goldpreis

https://produkte.erstegroup.co…ndex.phtml?ID_ENTRY=21714

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background-information: negativ-real-rates

http://www.mybudget360.com/ine…h-rising-wage-inequality/

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/fed-debt-as-a-percent-of-gdp.png]

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chart vorhanden

negative Realzinsen und Gold

real rates and gold

http://zealllc.com/2013/lrgold.htm

Der Trend vom Bondmarkt
zeigt auch die aktuelle Zinsentwicklung

Chart ---> $USB, $Gold, $silver, $HUI
http://www.safehaven.com/artic…alyst-for-precious-metals

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In the chart below we plot TLT (Bonds), the HUI Gold Bugs Index (large miners) and gold. While bonds and gold have been the big winners since 2000, they remain uncorrelated on shorter time frames. In the chart we highlight four cases in which gold and gold stocks bottomed and bonds peaked shortly thereafter. Interestingly, bonds and gold were correllated in late 2007 to early 2008, in early 2010 and in the lead up to the Euro crisis in late 2011.
http://www.safehaven.com/artic…old-gold-stocks-and-bonds

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30year Treasury Bond-price versus Gold
chart: $USB, $Gold corr(50) ---> Verhalten, Relation
http://www.safehaven.com/artic…sset-classes-set-to-shift

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updates to be up-to-date

http://thedailygold.com/?s=Byrne ( hier update sofort )

http://www.safehaven.com/author/336/jordan-roy-byrne ( update erst einige Tage später vorhanden )
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http://www.safehaven.com/article/31394/the-fire-fueling-gold

http://www.usfunds.com/investo…ueling-gold/#.Um0vR9QwcYl

the U.S. adjusted CPI, not once but twice, first in the early 1980s and again in the mid-1990s. If you use the pre-1982 calculation,
you end up with a much different inflation picture. This is the area shaded in red.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://static.safehaven.com/authors/holmes/31394_d.png]

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Inflation
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

unemployment
http://www.shadowstats.com/alt…_data/unemployment-charts
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http://www.incrementum.li/ ---> research
Analysis "In Gold we trust"
http://www.incrementum.li/de/r…is/in-gold-we-trust-2013/
Seite-22 China´s gold imports from Hong-Kong
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Seite-26 real-interest-rates
y13m10d20:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1382114144.php Featured is the daily bar chart for TIP, this bond fund that is indexed for inflation.
http://www.businessinsider.com…013-10?op=1#ixzz2i68GfAMK real-interest-rates
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Seite-25 The Expensive Consequences of the Cheap Money Policy
Seite-26 The unintended consequences of the zero interest rate policy are especially evident in Japan.

chart verfügbar
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in deutscher Sprache:
http://www.goldseiten.de/artik…ing-Hysterie.html?seite=3

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in englischer Sprache:
http://www.zealllc.com/2013/goldtaper.htm

It took real rates above 6% to kill the 1970s secular gold bull. And even with the absurdly-low and totally fictional 1.0% inflation rate the CPI is claiming today, the Fed would have to hike short rates near 7% to see similar real rates again. I can’t imagine that happening in the next decade, let alone the coming years! This gives gold’s current secular bull years left to run before the Fed starts thinking about ending ZIRP.

http://www.silverstrategies.com/story.aspx?local=1&id=45122

How Gold is Currently Being Priced
Richard (Rick) Mills

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PIMCO’s advice for gold investors is the following:
“As gold increasingly becomes a financial asset, when real yields rise, gold prices should fall if they are to maintain a given level of financial demand relative to investors’ other opportunities. Similarly, when real yields fall, we expect the price of gold to rise. Investors should be aware of the relationship between gold and real yields because it has important implications for how they think about the role of gold in their portfolio in an asset-allocation and risk-factor framework.” PIMCO
What does PIMCO expect for short term gold prices?
"Looking ahead, we expect the Federal Reserve to move very gradually in reducing accommodative policy and for 10-year U.S. real yields over the next several months to be relatively steady around current levels, which would be neutral for nominal gold prices." PIMCO
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hier sind noch einige interessante links im Bericht

http://www.financialsense.com/…factor-driving-price-gold

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http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insigh…stifying-Gold-Prices.aspx

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http://www.silverstrategies.com/story.aspx?local=1&id=45767

Usually, wage growth leads to an increase in the cost of goods, which translates to higher inflation.

And, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates low for a period of time to allow the economy to continue growing, it looks like real interest rates will remain low-to-negative, which should keep investors hot for gold.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.usfunds.com/media/images/frank-talk-images/2014_ft/FT_Jan-Jun/Wage-Control-Reaches-Highest-Level-in-Five-Years-03132014.gif]

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real-rates

http://www.safehaven.com/artic…ds-key-fundamental-driver