Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Gold-Investoren aufgepasst!
von Mark Ehren

Wer sich für echtes Gold interessiert, kennt das Problem: Entweder man versteckt die Barren zu Hause und lebt mit dem Diebstahlrisiko, oder man übergibt sie der Bank und zahlt schmerzhafte Schließfachgebühren. Mit "Gold Bullion Securities" gibt es nun einen Ausweg.

Seit Monaten wird die neue Gold-Anlage für den deutschen Markt vorbereitet, seit Anfang Juli ist sie von der Wertpapieraufsicht zum Handel zugelassen. Ein näherer Blick zeigt, dass das Papier durchaus Marktchancen hat.

Gold in Papierform
Die GBS (ISIN GB00B00FHZ82) sind mit einem Gold-Fonds vergleichbar. Jedes einzelne Wertpapier verbrieft eine Zehntel Feinunze, das entspricht 3,11 Gramm. Der derzeitige Wert dieser Goldmenge liegt bei rund 40 US-Dollar bzw. 32 Euro. Für die eingezahlten Beträge kauft die britische Investmentgesellschaft Gold Bullion Securities physisches Gold. Damit ist der Wert der Fondsanteile mit echtem Gold hinterlegt, der Anleger wird Eigentümer "seines" Goldes. Allerdings können sich Anleger das Gold nicht physisch ausliefern lassen.

In Großbritannien und Australien sind die GBS schon länger zu haben. Die bisher verkauften Anteile haben derzeit einen Wert von rund 624 Millionen US-Dollar. Das entspricht 49,1 Tonnen Gold. Zum Vergleich: Die jährliche Gold-Produktion liegt weltweit bei unter 3000 Tonen im Jahr. Das physische Gold der GBS lagert in Tresoren in London bei der britischen Großbank HSBC.

GBS hilft Gebühren sparen
Im Vergleich zu den klassischen Gold-Investments wie Goldbarren oder -münzen ist der Kauf billiger, den die Spanne zwischen An- und Verkaufskurs ist geringer. Sie liegt beim Handel über deutsche Börsenplätze bei rund fünf Prozent. Zusätzlich fallen noch die "normalen" Börsenhandelsgebühren wie beim Kauf von Aktien an. Dagegen kann die Spanne zwischen An- und Verkaufskurs beim Kauf von Goldbarren- oder münzen schnell die 10-Prozent-Marke überschreiten. Außerdem fallen beim Kauf von physischen Gold noch Kosten für den Aufbewahrung und die Versicherung an, wenn man es zum Beispiel bei seiner Hausbank aufbewahrt. Aufbewahrungs- und Versicherungskosten gibt es den GBS nicht, hier sind alle Kosten mit dem Kauf abgegolten.

Im Vergleich zu Gold-Zertifikaten bieten die GBS ebenfalls Vorteile. Bei Gold-Zertifikaten hat der Anleger das Recht, sich den Wert des verbrieften Goldes vom Emittenten auszahlen zu lassen. Der Anleger ist aber nicht Eigentümer des Goldes. Vielmehr sind Gold-Zertifikate rein rechtlich Anleihen. Der Emittent ist der Schuldner und der Anleger der Gläubiger. Falls ein Emittent von Gold-Zertifikaten also einmal in finanzielle Schwierigkeiten geriete, wäre das angelegte Kapital der Anleger in Gefahr.

Nachteil: Nichts zum Anfassen
Für die absoluten Pessimisten unter den Gold-Anlegern, die eine Weltwirtschaftskrise und den Zusammenbruch des weltweiten Finanzsystems befürchten, sind die GBS freilich nicht geeignet. Denn diese Anleger werden ihre Goldmünzen oder -barren lieber im eigenen Garten vergraben als sie in irgendwelchen Banktresoren zu lagern.

mein Fazit:
Das Gold wird zwar physisch 1:1 hinterlegt, aber man hat nur ein verbrieftes Recht und kann sich es nicht ausliefern lassen. Die Sicherheit hängt vom Emittenten ab. Ob es auch wirklich physisch hinterlegt wurde, ist daher eine Vertrauenssache. Eigentlich wie beim Central Fund of Canada, nur denen würde ich eher vertrauen, dass sie die Ware auch wirklich physisch kaufen.

Silbertaler,

Der Fond kauft für Dein Geld Gold,und bunkert es in Tresoren der Banken.Gold erwirtschaftet nun aber keine Zinsen,wie wir alle wissen,wer bezahlt denn das Fondsmanagement? Die können doch durch die Anlage in Gold nichts erwirtschaften,und die Lagerkosten.Das stinkt doch förmlich nach BETRUG.

Und ausliefern lassen,kannst Du es Dir auch nicht,also was soll das?

Jede Woche eine neue Art des Betrugs,bei dem ersten Bankfeiertag ist alles weg

Grüsse

Kalle

@ Silbertaler

auch ich habe da die grössten Bedenken, das bei eienm Knall nichts mehr da ist.

Gruss von der Alp

Alphötta,

ich würde mein Geld sowieso nicht in solchen Dingen anlegen. Hier ist nur ein geringer Hebel drin. Viel besser ist das Geld investiert, wenn man sich Gold-/Silberminenaktien kauft, da hier ein wesentlich höhere Wertsteigerung zu erwarten ist.

Gruß

Silbertaler

Goldverbrauch auf dem Subkontinent übertrifft die Nachfrage in den USA bei weitem - Kaufkraft in dem Schwellenland gestiegen
Neu Delhi - Die Goldnachfrage in Indien, dem weltgrößten Abnehmer des Edelmetalls, wird ab nächster Woche steigen. Denn Juweliere müssen sich für die bevorstehende Hochzeitssaison, die von November bis Februar dauert, mit dem Edelmetall eindecken.

Auf dem Subkontinent ist Gold, das am 10. November ein 16-Jahreshoch bei 438 Dollar erreichte, ein typisches Hochzeitsgeschenk: 60 Prozent der indischen Goldnachfrage entfallen auf funkelnde Brautgeschenke, berichtet der Branchenverband World Gold Council. Im ersten Halbjahr hat Indien 343 Tonnen Gold verbraucht und die USA um 206 Tonnen übertroffen.

"Die Frage, ob der hohe Goldpreis den Verkauf drosselt, stellt sich einfach nicht", sagt Mukul Sonawala, Partner und Goldhändler bei Narrondass Manordass in Mumbai. Denn ein goldenes Hochzeitsgeschenk sei die beste Möglichkeit, sicherzustellen, daß die Braut ihre Familie mit einer ausreichenden Mitgift verläßt, erklärt Sonawala den indischen Brauch: "Außerdem ist die Kaufkraft der Inder in den letzten Jahren deutlich gestiegen, daher zog auch die Nachfrage nach Goldschmuck kontinuierlich an."

Letztes Jahr expandierte die indische Wirtschaft 8,2 Prozent, angetrieben von der Rekordernte. Sie füllte die Kassen der vielen Bauern - in Indien sind 58 Prozent der Bevölkerung von der Landwirtschaft abhängig. Die für 2005 erwartete Abschwächung der Goldnachfrage, bedingt durch den unterdurchschnittlichen Niederschlag, der die Ernte belastet, dürfte vom Wachstum im Industrie- und Dienstleistungssektor aufgefangen werden.

In Mumbai fiel der Goldpreis am Donnerstag 0,06 Prozent auf 6330 Rupien je 10 Gramm, was 19 686 Rupien (435,97 Dollar) je Unze entspricht.

Die Schmucknachfrage war in den ersten sechs Monaten auf Rupien-Basis 17 Prozent höher, ermittelte der Branchenverband. Gemessen in Tonnen hat Indien im ersten Halbjahr sieben Prozent mehr Gold verbraucht als im Vorjahreszeitraum.

Obwohl viele Inder den Hochzeitstermin auf besondere Kalendertage legen, sind Hochzeiten im Sommer unwahrscheinlicher, was an den hohen Temperaturen liegt. "Die meisten ziehen den Winter vor", weiß Ravi Jalan von Jalan Commodities aus Delhi zu berichten. Zum typischen Brautset gehören sechs bis zehn Gramm Goldschmuck, erläutert Prithviraj Kothari, Direktor von Riddhi Siddhi Bullion. Mitunter würden aber bis zu drei Kilogramm Gold verschenkt. Eine Mittelklassefamilie kauft in der Regel zwei bis drei Brautsets.

Gold gilt als das beste Geschenk, das Familie und Angehörige machen können, außerdem hat allein die Braut das Recht auf Goldgeschenke. Bloomberg

Artikel erschienen in Die Welt am Sa, 13. November 2004

Dies ist doch auch ein sehr guter Grund für die Steigerung der physischen Goldnachfrage.

Aktuell,zu China,Dollar,Iran,Gold und Silber

http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/48495.html

viel Spass beim lesen

schönen Sontag

Kalle

# Silbertaler,

habe schon mehrmals versucht über seine private E-Mail Kontakt zubekommen, war leider auch kein Erfolg.

gruß hpoth

# Hallo,kalle,

die können doch auf Ihre Bestände Calls und Puts schreiben, damit läßt sich doch eine Verzinsung erwirtschaften, das habe ich in den 80 igern bei einer Schweizer - Bank auch mit Erfolg gemacht.Leider ist es jet zt nicht mehr möglich in der Schweiz, jedenfalls bei meiner Bankverbindung.

gruß
hpoth

November 11 - Gold $434.60 up 90 cents - Silver $7.45 up 6 cents

”Who Are Those Guys?” The Gold Cartel

Happiness is that state of consciousness which proceeds from the achievement of one's values. ..Ayn Rand

GO GATA

Arrived safe and sound here in New Orleans. Great to see the GATA gang again.

A good day to be out of the loop. So quiet. Morgan Stanley put the lid on gold. The Gold Cartel and friends keep pounding away in their effort to keep the price under control. The good news for us is they have their hands full. The cash market is on fire as indicated by the high Indian premiums. As mentioned yesterday, this is the key to the gold market and why it is acting so differently from years past. The Gold Cartel is meeting their match.

For gold to be so quiet at such an elevated level (as compared only to years past) is very unusual. The reason is because we have a Mexican standoff at the moment. This standoff should be resolved shortly, one way or the other. My bet is the bad guys get their butt handed to them.

Republic Bank showed up on the gold buy side.

Morgan Stanley continues to add to its sizeable silver short position. They are either going to make a killing or get slaughtered.

Some tidbits:

*The Shanghai copper warehouse stocks dropped again, confounding the copper bears. Copper is way up there at $1.3725 per pound.

*The Chinese PPI rose 8.2% year over year.

*Russia’s minister of mines says their placer gold deposits will be exhausted by 2011.

*The Comex is having a 30th year anniversary dinner of gold trading this evening. Seems the bulls and bears were doing some battling today for bragging rights tonight.

***

Back from making a few rounds at the conference and see gold managed to pick up its head a bit. The open interest showed another increase. The new total is 343,794, up another 1648 contracts. The DEC only fell 1356 contracts to 247,809, still an enormous number.

The silver open interest fell 1209 contracts to 122,355. The front DEC silver still has 86,238 contracts open, which is 431,000,000 ounces. IF ¼ of those still left open ask for delivery, the Comex warehouse stocks are history. Odds are slim this would occur, but you never know. Not that much money in the scheme of things these days. If 1/8 take delivery, it would wipe out the registered amount readily available to be delivered.

With so many market participants looking for a market correction, it is more likely gold will explode from here and carry out those shorts hanging around for The Gold Cartel to win another battle. The gold market remains explosive. We are going to see big time fireworks in the months to come. Stand by with those stretchers.

The John Brimelow Report
Extensive reports on buyers: not on sellers

Thursday, November 11, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.11, PM $8.54, with world gold at $432.40 and $432.55. Lavish for legal imports. Tomorrow is the seriously observed Diwali holiday, so today was something of a crescendo for the retail gold trade. However, the rupee hit another 5 month high today, and this gold import-friendly trend is expected to continue. According to Reuters, JP Morgan has raised their prediction for the rupee:

"We revise our December 2004 dollar/rupee target lower from 45.30 to 44.60 and expect the rupee strength would prevail until mid-2005."

India looks likely to continue to trouble the bears of gold.

Another report has appeared suggesting that high prices have not deterred buying this season. This is from the Gulf newspaper the Khaleej Times:

"DUBAI - Dubai's gold market continues to experience strong local demand for Diwali and Eid.the steep increase in gold prices which touched a 16-year high of Dh49 per gram for 22 carat jewellery, recently.gold jewellery outlets in Dubai and Sharjah, now crowded with buyers making a beeline for the precious metal during the festive season."

"The crowd, particularly in the evenings, has become uncontrollable making it difficult for our staff to attend and please all customers," retailers said, explaining the rush was indicative of a buoyant market trend.

The Gartman Letter has rather gullibly fallen today for one of the standard India dealer disinformation stories about Indian gold trade slowness this year. No doubt the business is not as active as it would be if gold was $50 lower, as it was last May, and the dealers resent this. But the premiums clearly indicate the country is actively importing, and, somewhat unusually for an industry much given to voluble pessimism, positive anecdotal evidence is available to those who look for it. To his credit, Gartman does give offsetting consideration to the prospect of the NY gold ETF helping bullion.

TOCOM is behaving somewhat oddly. Open interest dropped the equivalent of a steep 2,380 Comex lots (7.7 tonnes) on volume equal to 26,805 Comex (+27%). Mitsubishi implies the "general Public long" fell by 19 tonnes to 78.2; Mitsui-London suggests a 15 tonne drop. The active contract was up 15 yen, but world gold slipped 25c from the NY close. It is true that yen gold is approximately back to the early October high, which was the highest for several years, but none of the underlying parameters have deteriorated. The suddenness of the move (25 tonnes in two days according to Mitsubishi) suggests a fund exiting, maybe even a Western one. (NY yesterday traded 69,314 contracts (again well above the estimate, by 24%) open interest rose another 1,648 contracts to 343,794, another record.)

Yesterday, according to Standard London:

Gold traded between $434.50 and $433.00 in Asia as decent selling was absorbed by the same European based buyer that had featured all week, and the market staged a strong Fund led rally in London with the price reaching a high for the day of $437.80 bid ahead of the COMEX opening. Better than expected US trade data stalled gold's advance and long liquidation ahead of the Fed's announcement pushed the price to a low of $432.60. A late recovery on the close saw the yellow metal finish with a pared loss of $1.20 at $434.It will be interesting to see if this week's featured buyer remains 'in the ring' and if the pockets are deep enough to absorb potential liquidation if the dollar extends its recovery from record lows versus the euro."

This "long liquidation" did not prevent open interest rising. It is characteristic that the bullion bank commentators feel free to report and speculate about the buyer, but remain silent as to the identity of the equally notable seller. This entity has enabled open interest to rise 10%, or 32,893 contracts (102.3 tonnes) in a week, all of it in record high ground. Without this presence, gold would obviously have risen more than $8.40.

With key Hindu and Moslem religious festivals around this weekend, the Bears will get a respite - maybe even an opportunity. It will not last long.

JB

While I read John Brimelow's interesting articles every day, there is one thing that I still do't understand. Would you be kind enough to explain (in one of your future Midas reports) what this means and, perhaps, what it connotes: Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.67, PM $6.88, with world gold at $433.10 and $435.45. Lavish, and ample, for legal imports.
Earl Greenberg
Earl,
It’s very simple. The number indicates what Indian gold dealers are willing to pay up in the world gold market to import gold. When it is high (like above), it means the dealers must go into the world market to meet local demand.

In the past when the gold price rose sharply, local demand in India would dry up and the premiums would drop sharply, say to $1 or $2. This time the premiums have stayed at lofty levels, which indicates soaring demand for gold in India. JB has explained all the reasons why to Café members for months.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW keeps on charging ahead. It rose 84 to 10,470, while the DOG leaped 27 to 2061.

Oil tanked to $47.42 per barrel, down $1.44. Bearish for inflation. Bullish for Indian gold demand, which John B continually points out.

Chuck checks in:

Bill;
As I peruse the many opinions about the immediate direction of gold, one thing is certain; there is a great deal of caution and concern that gold is really breaking out here. Outside of a few fringe writers which include Jim Sinclair, a Bill Murphy, Jim Puplava and even myself, although I do not place myself in that core of experts, most of the other so-called "bulls" on the metal are still trying to fine tune this move, predicting a drop back to $420 or a break out to $480 followed then by a drop back to that level.

I find this pattern pretty remarkable on several fronts. First, we are now at a 16 year high on gold. We are not back at $350. Gold has tested many levels and now has risen to a price last seen back in the late 1980's. It is logical that many people would notice this but if you read the mainstream press even when the dollar is mentioned there is rarely a comment on gold. Very strange. It is more unusual that those gold advisors who are looking for a major secular bull market in gold are still more concerned about a $10 or, shudder, a $20 set back. They do their readers a tremendous disservice because it plants doubt that this cycle is really going to do what they have been told. Gold is the ultimate insurance. Why worry about such small moves?

Two, we are continuing on an exponential or parabolic pattern. Please note that all great bull markets such as the gold market in the 1970s and the stock market from 1980 to its conclusion in 2000 exhibited this pattern. If gold trades directly opposite to stocks as these patterns have shown, we can expect gold to continue its ascent parabolically accordingly. That is my firm expectation. Note that silver has also joined in that peculiar and dynamic wave at this time.

Three, even though we are currently at this high, the smaller exploration companies which normally will exhibit speculative fury at tops, have not, on the whole, even moved. You can make two conclusions from this. One, this has been a localized move in the larger senior gold companies or two, we are at the earliest level on this leg. I believe that the latter is true. It is not just the Newmonts or Placers who have carried the day, but now top medium companies such as Nova Gold Wheaton Mineral and Minefinders have also move up smartly lately. This has occurred after some very scary sell offs with gaps and panic selling highlighting the drops. This, in my opinion, is extremely positive.

Four, the fundamentals for a massive increase in gold are still very much in place. All of the deficits and all of the geopolitical problems have not suddenly vanished and make gold now unattractive. More importantly, they are unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future.

My conclusion is, as I have pointed out on many occasions and which agree with Bill on almost every point, is that we are at the very infancy of this move. The disbelief and the concern that gold is always on the brink of another sharp correction is the backdrop upon what historic moves are found. I am expecting at some point soon an acceleration of what has been a painstaking relentless upward move. The enormous physical buying will soon overwhelm the paper and derivative based selling that has capped gold and has put fear in so many of the believers' hearts. There is a day of reckoning coming very soon. Don't be caught napping when it arrives. Chuck ikiecohen@msn.com

Could not agree more, Chuck.

Fund set to launch as gold hits new high By Kevin Morrison
Published: November 10 2004 19:57 | Last updated: November 10 2004 19:57

Gold prices on Wednesday nudged a fresh 16-year high as investors prepared for the launch of a fund that will track the price of the precious metal. The fund, which is owned by the World Gold Council, on Monday lodged with the Securities and Exchange Commission the last registration statement that must be filed with the US securities regulator before a new investment issue is listed. The World Gold Council is funded by some of the world's biggest gold miners. The fund, called Streettracks Gold Trust, will be distributed and marketed by State Street Securities, the US financial services group, and is expected to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange by the end of the year. Officials at the World Gold Council did not comment on the Streettrack Gold Trust. However, investment funds said they had been contacted by banks associated with the new gold investment fund about presentations for the product later in the month. This is the strongest indication thus far of long-awaited approval from the SEC. The council originally launched a gold investment prospectus with the regulator in May 2003. Streettracks Gold Trust is an exchange traded fund, a form of investment popular with US investors as they track stock indices for a lower cost than index-based managed funds. It will be an open-ended fund and track the gold price, with each unit equal to one-tenth of an ounce of gold. The filing of the product has been marred by legal wrangles. It represents a landmark decision for the SEC because no investment product listed on a US stock exchange is backed by a commodity. This because pension funds are not allowed to invest directly in commodities. The structure of the fund mirrors other gold investment funds listed in London, Australia and Johannesburg. But the US holds the largest pool of potential investors in gold. It is home to the biggest listed gold miner in the world, Newmont, and gold futures are traded at the Comex exchange in New York. Comex gold futures celebrate 30 years of trading this week, and open interest (contracts that have not been closed) has reached a record level of 300,000 contracts. Traders said talk of the new gold ETF and the record open interest in Comex gold were bullish signals for the gold price, which yesterday hit a fresh high for the fifth day in succession. Bullion hit a high of $437.25 per troy ounce on further dollar weakness before settling at $433.95/$434.70 in late London trade. A London-based gold trader said: "Rumours of the imminent launch of Gold ETFs on the New York Stock Exchange fuelled the buying in gold. Traditional gold traders expect pent-up, fresh buying interest in these instruments from US mutual funds that have previously been excluded by their charters from buying physical gold."

-END-

From my friend Mahendra:

Dear Members,
I have been very quite these days and spending lot of time on astrological research work. Many analyst and experts have been warning on gold since last five week and few are bearish since many months but gold is ignoring each expert and moving ahead with wave of nature. WARNING - My recommendation is don't play against gold OR DON'T SHORT METALS. If gold comes down five to ten dollar that you can't call downward trend that is just a small healthy wave, so one should watch long term trend and that is up for metals.

May small downward trend will come soon and I will warn my and Gata members well in advance.

I am expecting gold should reach above $448 and silver $7.78 in next three trading sessions.

IMPORTANT ADVANCE ANNOUNCEMENT

This is an important advance announcement that I shall soon increase my newsletter subscription fee for up to 500%. Those who would like to subscribe can go ahead and take advantage of the current reduced subscription fee. In May 2004, I slashed the subscription cost by 90% on the request of Bill Murphy. I adjusted the price from $1750 to $210 for three months and $750 from $11500 for an annual subscription. However, I shall soon increase the subscription rate by 500%.

Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

GATA developments:

Bill....just heard on the Anderson Cooper Show on CNN that they will be doing some shows on 'conspiracy' theories (just the facts Jack) after Thanksgiving and are asking viewers to write in their conspiracies.....CNN will pick the best of the bunch and do some shows on them........a write-in campaign for your readers???
Regards, JD.

C/O: Anderson Cooper 360' Challenge
E-mail Address: CNN.Com/360

OK GATA ARMY, go to it. See what you can do to catch Anderson Cooper’s attention. Have to take these press opportunities when and where we can get them.

Word has to be circulating about GATA’s claims. I happen to catch part of this on CNBC earlier today:

Bill Seidman, CNBC commentary guy, was asked about the concerted efforts of many to push down gold and silver prices, and the large short positions on gold, silver and stocks. Won't the price be pushed dramatically higher with the shorts being squeezed?

Seidman indicated that there are suggestions out there that the activity has been illegal, yet that the case has not been proven.
Regards,
Rick

I heard him say something like it would be a big deal, if true. Time to press on with Ted David, who asked the question and who knows about GATA because we exchanged emails recently.

Here is another daring gold forecast from Wall Street:

07:35 GG GG upgraded, NEM, and FCX target prices raised at Prudential (14.13) Pru sees price of gold in f05 at $450 versus prior target of $375, a weaker dollar, and GG as a possible takeover target. GG upgraded to overweight from neutral. Target price $18 from $17. The firm raised FCX's target price to $41 from $37, based on the same gold price forecast. Finally, Prudential raised its NEM price to $39 from $29, on its gold forecast, and Canadian dollar valuation changes.
· * * * *

No wonder the investing world remains gold clueless.

The gold shares continue to diddle. The XAU gained .53 to 106. However, the HUI lost .21 to 237.74. Seems nutty to me, yet that is the way it is.

The Gold Cartel has to be asking themselves, “Who Are Those Guys?” to borrow a line from “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.” The cabal keeps selling and selling and yet the price won’t go down because more and more buyers show up to take them on.

Some time in the very near future we are going to get our Commercial Signal Failure and The Gold Cartel is going to be blown out because they have been found out.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

November 12 - Gold $437.40 up $2.80 - Silver $7.59 up 14 cents

Gold And Silver Charge Along With Little Fanfare

Self-esteem is the reputation we acquire with ourselves...Nathaniel Branden

GO GATA!!!

This is going to be a quickie. Out of the loop today and running around at the NO conference. Having a great time seeing everyone. It’s a reunion of friends and veteran gold warriors from all over the place.

Gold charged ahead into 16-year new high ground again today and did so with little fanfare once again. The December contract came close to taking out $440, above which it is rumored there are massive trade buy stops. Spot made it to $438.70.

What I like is there are no gaps to fill below the market. We still have yet to see a breakaway gap. Maybe Monday and the stops will power the market higher.

What is so remarkable is the lack of excitement over this move. The Café Sentiment Indicator is only a five and there are more short-term bears at this conference than bulls. Last year with the price some $20 lower than it is at the present, the indicator was at a 9 and everyone was bullish.

As confirmation of how little enthusiasm out there, one only need look at the smaller golds. Most are going nowhere, or if they are, the direction is lower. How weird! There is almost no belief in the public this move up will stand. They have been so conditioned by The Gold Cartel that gold will be trashed, many have already accepted it as a fait accompli.

While gold closed well for the week, it is clear The Gold Cartel is doing all they can to manage the price rise. They are allowing gold to go up only as much as the dollar weakens. We need a WHOOSH move up in gold on its own from these levels to know the cabal’s back has been broken. It shouldn’t be long before gold breaks away from the dollar action. This will signify the bums are going down for the count.

December options expire a week next Tuesday. There are 12,000 December 440 calls still on the books.

Open interest update:

Gold – down 780 contracts to 343,014. DEC only down 1770 contracts to 246,039.

Silver – up 117 contracts to 122,472. DEC down only 352 contracts to 85,886.

GATA love that silver action. Morgan Stanley is really sucking wind on their short trade to-date.

The dollar fell sharply, dropping to 83.71, down .73.

The John Brimelow Report
Wisdom from Japan

Friday, November 12, 2004

India was closed today.

Although TOCOM volume fell 37% to only the equivalent of 17,685 Comex lots, open interest rose the equivalent of 615 Comex. Although the active contract fell 4 yen, world gold rose 55c above NY. (NY yesterday traded 34,700 contracts; open interest fell 780 contracts,)

The fact that TOCOM open interest resumed its steady rise suggests that the big contraction of the last couple of days was indeed Fund activity.

Early today Reuters carried a Nikkei News story to the effect that Washington is willing to connive at a major depreciation of the dollar:

"In order to prevent a sharp slowdown in the overall economy from tighter monetary and fiscal policies, the need for a weaker dollar has been debated inside and outside the administration." It entails the risk of a sharp fall in the dollar to a magnitude that the yen could hit a record high if the dollar's adjustment hits the yen," the article said. It also said expectations were growing that Washington was going to look for Plaza Accord-style ways to coordinate policy with other countries instead of leaving the dollar adjustment to the market."

If this is indeed true then the course of gold prices in the immediate future is settled.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (10,534, up 64) and DOG (2085, up 24) keep going up.

08:10 Follow-up: gold-backed ETF will price next week, says Reuters Sources tell us the symbol for the ETF will be 'GLD.'
* * * * *

08:04 Reuters reports gold-backed ETF expected to price week of 11/15 -- Reuters Cites UBS prospectus.
* * * * *

08:30 October Retail Sales reported +0.2% vs. consensus +0.1%; ex-autos reported +0.9% vs. consensus +0.6%
Prior readings revised to +1.6% from +1.5% and +0.8% from +0.6%, respectively.
* * * *

09:47 Nov. Univ. of Michigan Sentiment reported 95.5 vs. consensus 93. Prior reading was 91.7.
* * * *

10:00 Sept. Business Inventories reported 0.1% vs. consensus 0.5%
Prior reading unrevised at 0.7%.
* * * * *

Chuck checked in last night:

The premium in the Central Fund is not an exact correlation, but it is a good indicator at extremes. The phenomenal drop today must mean something. If you look at the chart of its premium, the last time it was this low was back in June 2003 when gold bottomed at $325. Add in the persistent put buying in the gold options, and it could get explosive here. Chuck

Some help from my friends on this NO conference day:

Bill,
Hope your enjoying NOLA. My two favorite seafood dives (the ones with rodents crawling around but the best crawfish in town) are R & O's by the lake and Franky & Johnny's uptown on the river. You may want to check into these figures but my dad (a lifelong commodity trader) is insistent that Gold open interest reached 1 mm contracts in 1980. He said the IMM and Comex each had 500,000 open interest.

A couple of things you may have missed this morning: Japan 3rd qtr GDP came in at a disappointing +.1%. Euro 3rd qtr GDP +.3% and was aided by Greek Olympics. The important point to me is all the people fleeing the U.S. dollar for these currencies are ending up in no growth economies with low yields. Me I would rather own Gold with falling production and rising costs to produce. Secondly CNBC had a Chicago Merc Currency trader on saying he felt the most important thing he saw all week was South Korea deciding to cut interest rates with inflation picking up in order to protect the little growth they had. His point is there is tremendous international resistance to the falling dollar. The one currency he felt had upside was Gold since there was no government trying to devalue it (obviously that is debatable) but the important point to me is the story is starting to get around. There are very few attractive currencies. Most major currencies are being devalued it is a question which is being devalued the fastest. Gold will soon start outperforming all currencies.

U.S. retail sales were +.2%. While the media is talking up ex-auto retail sales, the growth came from gasoline stations + 4.3%. Auto sales were down 2.2%. In a healthy economy we would rather sell cars than gasoline. So the retail sales report was consistent with a stagflationary environment. Once again someone used the retail sales report to sell off Gold from its 16 year highs. It is clear to me they didn't bother to read the report.

In my opinion until Gold appreciates significantly against all currencies I would prefer to hold physical and physical leveraged Gold (futures) than the gold stocks. While I expect gold stocks to move up with the price of Gold it is clear they need significantly higher prices for their profitability to kick in given rising costs and falling production.
Garic

From Rhody on the WGC ETF

Hi Bill:
This tired brain has difficulty grasping how the new World Gold Council's Streettrack Gold Trust is going to help the cause of gold. If I understand this fund correctly, "units" representing one tenth ounce of gold will be traded on the NY stock exchange. Usually, these sorts of thing trade at a significant premium to the spot price. This thing sounds like the very definition of a derivative, introduced by an organization which has had a poor record in the promotion of gold. If one was unkind, one could say the WGC has had a negative impact on the gold market.. I expect the new Gold Fund to carry on in the negative tradition. You see, every dollar spent on the SGT fund is a dollar not spent on real gold. In this way, all funds like this divert money away from gold purchases into paper. I think this is their ultimate purpose. It is why they are allowed.

A gold fund still must buy some gold however to back its units. In this way, it is still an improvement on buying a gold stock such as NM or ABX.

If one buys a gold stock, one thinks it's a gold buy. It isn't. You have bought a derivative of gold, not metal. It gets worse. if you support a gold mining company with your share purchase, one has not only been diverted away from gold, but has encouraged more gold supply, or even additional hedging, if one buys a company with a history of that behavior. If you believe in gold, buy the metal, not the paper.
Regards, Rhody

Prudential Financial Is Cutting Goldcorp Inc. 2005 Estimate To -0.07 From 0.03 11:37 EST Thursday, Nov 11, 2004

Do you suspect that a phone call was made? Can't have Goldcorp rising and pulling up the HUI and XAU can we now.

If I had money at Prudential I would yank it immediately. Either they are buffoons or they are not telling their clients the truth.
Regards,
Dave.

More commentary help from my friends:

the weakest link?

he weakest link? Good evening Bill
Another week under our belts and gold continues to march onwards and upwards.

Despite all the hoo haa it is clear that Europe and Japan have little or no economic growth. The US has some growth, but at the cost of continuing to try and keep firing an economy that should have suffered a recession long ago, and which has huge triple deficits.

It is becoming obvious that all the major economic powers will try and devalue their currencies; but that is against each other's currencies which offers no consolation to an investor trying to achieve asset growth and real returns.

So what is the weakest link in this equation?

Gold, of course. As countries attempt competitive devaluations against other currencies, akin to a Mexican wave in a football ground, it will become clear that no currency offers safety, security and real value, whereas gold will offer all against all currencies.

Perhaps this will mark the beginning of the second leg of this secular gold bull market, when gold rises against all currencies.
Best wishes
Ian

The gold shares rose without any oomph. Most investors seem to be waiting for the expected gold price correction. The XAU gained 2.59 to 108.59, while the HUI took out 240 resistance and rose 4.41 to 241.65. I would have thought it would have really taken off when 240 was breached. Nope. Just a sign of how blasé the investment world is about gold at the moment.

One reason I can think of for the lack of hoo-rah is few in the US are thinking gold with the stock market doing so well. Most Americans aren’t affected by the falling dollar. At least, they are not paying attention on a day to day basis. With the US stock market moving up every day, the real estate market holding up, and interest income on the rise, they could care less. My how that will change in the months to come.

Because of the disinformation about gold put out there by The Gold Cartel and even the gold establishment world, the understanding by the investing public about what the gold market is all about, remains zilch. Perhaps when it goes $500 bid, a few will wake up.

Gold and silver are going MUCH higher.

So far so good on my continuously bullish call on gold and silver. However, going to keep the rah-rah stuff very low key. No jinx coming from me for us all.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS