Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

While the US stock market rockets up with little care in the world, the gold shares continue to struggle. The XAU lost .77 to 99.35. The HUI gave up 2.10 to 216.96.

This too shall end.

Here’s to UCONN, which won its first Bowl game by defeating Toledo. No bigger UCONN sports fan out there than my good friend and colleague Chris Powell. He will have to savor this win to make up for UCONN’s mighty women’s basketball team, which dropped out of the Top Ten for the first time in a decade.

Enjoy the holidays, family and friends. It’s only a matter of a bit of time before all our markets go our way.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Excellenter Artikel von Alex Wallenwein wie ich meine.

click hier

Er zeigt die negative Korrelation zwischen US Dollar und Dow auf. Papier und physisches Gold sind nicht länger die "Feinde". Einzig eine positive Korrelation zwischen Dow und GoldMINENaktien könnten die geplante Defizit-Sanierung gefährden.

It works because gold is no longer the real threat, and that's because an artificially high dollar is no longer desirable. The US needs a drastically lower dollar to (hopefully) start getting the mounting current account deficit to reverse course.

It also needs a low greenback because the euro needs to be torpedoed if the dollar-reserve system is to have any chance at survival. The US regime further needs its currency to fall to attract foreign manufacturing to the US to make up for the jobs lost to China - a brand new trend that most people are not even aware of. And the recently inverse dollar-Dow relationship is now amply documented by the charts above.

What the US cannot tolerate, however, is a powerful rising trend in gold shares.

Gold shares are the only thing that can attract mainstream US investors away from the mainstream stocks and so lead to a gold blow-off and a Dow collapse. Americans don't invest much in bullion. Having been ‘paper-trained' for several generations now, they consider it "too cumbersome." You can't sell bullion in your basement by calling your broker or making a few clicks online - but with gold shares, you can do it.

Eine neue Preismanipulation wird daher in Minenaktien passieren, während Anleger in physisches Gold die Gewinner sein werden.

Would you do it in the price of bullion, into which you know few investors are actually putting their money - or would you do it in the market segment they all are piling into when gold starts looking good?

That's one way of explaining the lagging share prices. So far, it's pure speculation and extrapolation from a few know factors. Maybe someone with a stronger motive to prove this will look into it and find the evidence, but the point is that bullion is the clear winner in this new era.

Gründe für den Preisanstieg des physischen Goldpreises sind:

Muslims, Chinese, Indians, and Russians have no intention of enriching companies of countries like South Africa, Australia, Canada - and especially the US - by investing in their mining shares. They understand the value of the metal itself (maybe with the exception of private Russian investors), so that's what they go for. As far as these countries and areas' official policies go, they don't mind destabilizing the dollar at all, as along as it doesn't hurt them too much. Pumping money into US company stocks - and therefore into the US economy - isn't these groups' top priority, really. (When it comes to US productive assets, however, China doesn't seem to mind. Gives it some nice leverage for the future, rather than potential stock-loss risks)

In the long term, gold miners, though they profit from higher prices in their own currencies, still have to operate in their own economies. As far as US miners go, only those holding metal instead of cash as their assets will be able to post serious profits when inflation goes from tame to hyper as the world-wide dollar- drubbing continues.

India may be setting itself up to becoming the major bullion player in the world. That only makes sense - because it already is. India's official gold reserves are far below those of the major financial powers of the world, but look at how much the population is estimated to own according to India's Commerce and Industry Minister, Khamal Nath: Currently 9,000 tons, and soon expected to become 15,000 tons. That's about what GATA and many others estimate al of the world's central banks to have left in terms of actual, unencumbered gold reserves. (Which country do you think is better prepared to weather the coming storm: the US - or India?)

Chinese and Japanese official gold buying is gaining momentum. At the same time China intends to align its now spot-oriented domestic trading to the world wide futures trading system, intending to become a major player in the international gold trading arena. Yet, despite this official trend toward derivatives and hedging practices, individual Chinese savers are expected and officially encouraged by their government to buy and hold physical to hedge against financial and currency risks. More on that in the next section.

Entscheidend ist hierbei, dass:

None of these factors lie within the sphere of US legislative or Fed control.

Bei mir funktioniert der Link nicht.

Wenn ich mal so auf die Kurse schaue, dann ist Gold in Euro tiefer als zu Jahresbeginn.

Also letztlich ein verlorenes Jahr für alle Goldinvestoren (bin ja selber einer ...). Wer hätte das am Jahresanfang gedacht ?

Gruß
cabrito

und die Marsmännchen sind grün.

Finde ich immer wieder schön zu lesen wie sich ständig die Meinung der "Experten" ändert. Mal ist Gold und Silber der Feind mal die GM Aktien. Und nächstes Jahr wird der DAX sein weil die US Investoren US Aktien verkaufen müssen um in EU Land zu investieren.

Dies zeigt dass die "Experten" ziemlich am Ende sind mit ihrem Latein und nicht mehr weiter wissen wie Sie deren Jünger bei Laune halten können.

Kauft Aktien !!!

Ähh, doch nicht.

Kauft physische Ware !!!

Nein, nein falsch. Doch Aktien.

Ach, gerade haben die Bösen den HUI geshortet. Aber jetzt ist doch wieder Zeit in physische Ware zu investieren.

Fazit:

Vergesst die Experten denn die halten nur die Taschen auf um Eure Kohle zu bekommen !!!

@ Cabrito

Jetzt ist Zeit zum Nachkaufen ! Heute ist der Goldpreis um 8 Dollar getaucht. Ich glaube nur für kurze Zeit !!! Also einsteigen zur nächsten Bergfahrt !

Gruss von der Alp

@caprito

Ich kann dich verstehen, aber Investitionen in andere Sektoren, waren auch nicht sehr von Erfolg gekrönt. Viele Goldminien haben Kapitalerhöhungen gemacht, die die Kurse unbeweglicher gemachtr haben. Das hilft dir und mir
auch nicht, macht die Sache aber erträglicher. Der einzige Sektor der erfolgreiche Kurssteigerungen in diesem Jahr vorweisen konnte, war die Investition in Uran-aktien, bzw. in Kohle und Zink. Das dürfte auch im nächsten Jahr die Renner sein. Also nicht nach hinten schauen, sondern vorne spielt die Musik, die Börse ist keine Einbahnstrasse, und es ist sehr schwer, auch im kommenden Jahr Erfolg zu heben. Du kannst ja auch blinde Kuh spielen, jegliches KGV in den Wind schießen, und die Goggle Aktien kaufen., an der Börse ist alles möglich, sogar das unmögliche.

Gruß Jürgen

Bei Google sollte man immer ein paar Puts auf dem Zettel haben. Aber genau weiß man das erst hinterher.

Aber Du hast schon recht: Die Musik spielt vorne. Nur wenn mir am Jahresanfang jemand gesagt hätte, daß ich mit Dax-Fonds Gewinne und mit Gold Verluste mache, hätte ich glatt ne´ Wette dagegen angenommen.

Da man bekanntlich immer mit dem Trend gehen soll (Alphötta: Vor allem nie gegen den Trend kaufen !) heißt das für mich:

- Goldbestand konstant halten
- Aktien erhöhen
- Geld ausgeneb / Leben genießen => stark übergewichten

Gruß
cabrito

December 29 – Gold $435.50 down $8.60 – Silver $6.77 down 23 cents

Goldman, JP Morgan, Deutsche B Bomb Gold - Setting Stage For Financial Market Tsunami

The way I see it, if you want the rainbow, you gotta put up with the rain..Dolly Parton

GO GATA!!!

One need go no further than Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank to find the ringleaders of The Gold Cartel and the ones most responsible for making a mockery of the naïve notion that the gold market is not vigorously managed. As reported here since the fall of 1998, Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs and cohorts Morgan and DB are almost always the ones capping the gold price on rallies and then the ones instigating major attacks. Year, after year, after year I have reported the same. Year, after year, after year, the gold industry says nothing. Today was a day like so many others.

There is no point in me registering further emotive indignation at The Gold Cartel and the gold industry. Seems this is all I do lately. However, if you are as disgusted as I am, I strongly suggest you register your fury with the gold company CEO’s where you have parked your money. Ask them to explain why gold is falling further and further behind the sinking of the dollar. Why gold in euros has fallen recently from 344 to nearly 320 in a matter of weeks. Perhaps you can explain the gold facts of life to these men/women and then ask if they have supported GATA. If not, why not?

The most important gold fact of life to explain is the gold market is being managed in duplicitous fashion by a Gold Cartel. Lately, the price manipulation has become more aggressive, as evidenced by gold’s collapse against the euro rise. Those out there who believe gold’s rise is the mirror image of the dollar’s fall aren’t dealing with the facts. While the falling dollar has been a significant factor the past few years in the rise of the dollar gold price, it is not the key to the gold market, as gold has gone nowhere in many foreign currency terms. The Gold Cartel is USING the dollar action to achieve its own agenda.

To understand the gold market it is essential to recognize The Gold Cartel for what it is and then appreciate the physical market is so strong it’s keeping the cabal from crushing gold even as the dollar falls. If they could do it, they would have, and will should the physical market suddenly fall apart.

The motives of The Gold Cartel are as plain as day:

*The Gold Cartel and US financial market power structure know the dollar must fall. However, they are concerned a dollar rout could cause some sort of financial market instability or panic. To prevent such an occurrence, they are following Paul Volker’s insight and what he had to say regarding the rise in the gold price in 1980:

"…..Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.

"Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar."

Could it be any clearer what is going on here?

*The second aspect of The Gold Cartel’s motive is expressed brilliantly in a piece by Robert Benson titled:

Inflation Disinformation

And posted at:

http://news.goldseek.com/SFG/1104335062.php

Benson hits the nail on the head regarding the US and its disinformation plan. While he does not mention gold itself, the mauling of the gold price vis-à-vis the sinking of the dollar, is to send a message to the financial markets how inconsequential the collapse of the dollar really is and how it is nothing to be concerned about. What the US is doing by manipulating the price of gold is nothing but pure "propaganda."

To put this in perspective, one only needs focus on what the commentary is whenever the gold price rises steeply. It is ALWAYS the same from the pundits. There is talk of:

*Inflation
*Rising commodity prices
*Safe haven buying
*Crisis buying

That sort of commentary is ALWAYS regarded as negative, if sustained, for the US financial markets. Gold is the average man’s (Wall Street’s too) barometer of the health of our markets. By taking gold down, The Gold Cartel is sending out its propaganda that all is just fine. The bang they get for their gold buck is enormous and effective, yet it represents DISINFORMATION as Benson expresses so eloquently in his essay. An excerpt:

"….In looking at these numerical facts and the actual world around us, we can truly appreciate the magnitude of disinformation on the inflation front. The Fed needs inflation, wants inflation, and is getting inflation. Without inflation to inflate away a massive amount of personal, corporate, and government debt, our financial system could collapse. A lower dollar and higher inflation will ease the federal deficit while the foreign central banks, that have purchased U.S. Treasuries, will end up paying for the war in the Mid East as America’s debt is inflated away. To make the disinformation plan work, it is critical that even if inflation is not contained, the knowledge and perception that inflation is kicking up, is contained.

"Unfortunately for savers, they are being slaughtered by inflation very silently but at least they are alive to work like a wage slave for another day. The average American is so busy trying to make ends meet that when it comes to inflation, they don’t even know what’s happening. We can only hope that the Pentagon will learn from the masters at the Fed how to have that soft touch when it comes to propaganda……"

***

-- Posted Wednesday, December 29 2004

Richard Benson, SFGroup, is a widely published author on securitization and specialty finance, and a sought after speaker at financing conferences on raising equity for mid-market companies.

Prior to founding the Specialty Finance Group in 1989, Mr. Benson acted as a trading desk economist for Chase Manhattan Bank in the early 1980's and started in the securitization business in 1983 at Bear Stearns, and helped build the early securitization businesses at Citibank and E.F. Hutton.

Mr. Benson graduated from the University of Wisconsin in 1970 in the Honors Program in Math, and did his doctoral work in Economics at Harvard University. Mr. Benson is a member of the Harvard Club of New York and Palm Beach.

The Specialty Finance Group, LLC is a Florida Limited Liability Company and is registered with the NASD/SIPC as a Broker/Dealer.
***

Tragically, this is leading to a US financial market tsunami, as the underlying faults in the US system are growing. The warning system that would show something is not right (as indicated by a sharply rising, free market gold price) has been taken away from the average investor. Spin and propaganda is ruling the day. It is incredibly perverse as the big money powers in the US know the real story – and what they are doing and why.

The world is rightfully focusing on the unspeakable devastation in South Asia resulting from the tsunami which struck that part of the world. What strikes me is to hear of the politicos now talking about a warning system, one which has been ignored. Politically, it is now the thing to do to show concern. Practically, for that part of the world, it is too late. A tsunami close to this one hits in that region only once every several hundred years.

However, this analogy of what happened can be directly related to what the sinister Gold Cartel is doing to the investing world. By capping the price of gold, the bums are stripping the warning system away which could warn investors of a coming US financial market tsunami, one which many of us see coming with far more certainty than the Asian calamity. The cabal forces have created a surreal and unnaturally secure market setting when great danger is lurking. By definition this is so for all practical purposes. Otherwise, The Gold Cartel and US financial market power structure could care less what the price of gold did. After all, it is one of their assets.

It would be one thing if these devious folks were buying time to correct some serious problems. That is not the case. The problems such as Iraq, deficits, etc., are worsening for the US with no solutions in sight. Thus by rigging the price of gold, these Orwellians are setting up a far more devastating financial market tsunami down the road than need be. This means there will be that many more Americans, financially in over their heads, who will not be able to cope with simultaneous US real estate and stock market drubbings. More damaging will be the fact that so few average Americans will see the US financial market tsunami coming, just as so few in Asia saw the crushing wave force which was so devastating. Most Americans won’t know what hit them.

The outrage is the US media forbids the likes of GATA and our findings to be presented to the American public. Not even our name is allowed to be mentioned. It’s a complete disgrace, one which makes a mockery of the notion we have a free press in America. Yes, we will be heard one day – AFTER the financial market tsunami hits in the US – AFTER there is fervent outrage as to how something like it could have happened.

What a shame! What an unnecessary tragedy it will be for so many!

One more thing. As to the reason for the timing of this attack on gold by Goldman Sachs and friends in the cabal, the consequences of the Iraq war fiasco will be center stage next week with supposed elections coming at the end of January. The extent of the US blunder will become apparent to its most ardent supports, as well as to the rest of the world, sometime next month. The financial market ramifications, and loss of US prestige as a result of this blunder, will be undeniable. The bottom line is the US financial bottom line is going to soar beyond all expectations in the years to come. So will the cost in human terms. There is no way the US can get its financial house in order under these circumstances, save draconian measures which will send us into a deep recession. Those measures will be political suicide for incumbents, thus they won’t be put into play.

As a result, the US dollar has no way to go but a lot lower in 2005. January could be a particularly difficult month in this regard. Therefore, the Orwellians are taking gold down now with the notion the dollar may really tank in during the first month of next year. Should gold rally $20 in sync with the coming dollar debacle, the move up from here will only take it back to its highs of early December.

auf kitco äußert sich Adam Hamilton zu den Aktien.
Es hätte 7 Übernahmeschlachten in 2004 im HUI gegeben, davon
5 feindliche. Das sei Gift für die Kurse.
Dies ist vielleicht auch ein kleiner Stein im Preismosaik.
(bin leider nicht firm im verlinken - aber kitco ist ja bekannt)

Routine observations:

*The AM Fix was $443.50 with the dollar slightly stronger, a continued indication of firm physical market demand. Enter the goon squad.

*The euro gold price fell all the way to 320.64 and continues its collapse.

*Gold bottomed at $433 before rebounding modestly. This area held three times in the past and should hold again.

*The gold open interest rose another 1927 contracts yesterday as The Gold Cartel prepared for their onslaught today by adding to their shorts.

*Silver fell in sympathy with gold.

*The silver open interest lost 107 contracts to 99,266.

*The dollar rose a whopping .30 to 81.10, while the euro was trashed by a staggering .21 to 136.03. The euro is less than half a point from MAKING A NEW HIGH!

*The DOG was unchanged, while the DOW lost only 25, despite China saying it would buy no planes from Boeing in 2005. US Treasury bonds only fell a ¼ of a point.

*The markets were all very subdued in holiday trading, all EXCEPT gold which was buried for no apparent reason. Nick Ferris of J-Pacific Gold suggested it may have to do with the year-end positions of The Gold Cartel – that they are so offside they needed to take the price down to reduce the losses on their books.

Makes sense. Still, this is a blatant violation of US anti-trust laws. These significant financial market players banded together, in restraint of free trade, to collectively bury the gold price for no apparent reason except for their own greed. Where is the outrage of the gold world and the authorities? Why do we bother to have anti-trust laws on our books when the CFTC and Justice Department allow this sort of corruption to continue over and over again? What a farce!

Sorry, jetzt bin ich doch glatt
in die täglichen Marktkommentare von Le Metropole gerutscht.
gruss

John B is on holiday, yet took the time to send a short update:

The John Brimelow Report

NY defies India- at least until Year end

Wednesday, December 29

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.15, PM $8.62, with world gold at $443.30 and $ $443.20. Lavish for legal imports. In this context, world gold’s subsequent foray below $435 in NY can only be seen as biziarre. The Bears had better be ready to supply very large amounts of physical to the world market.

Japan was closed. Shanghai continues to show moderate ( $0.55 - $1.04 ) premiums to world gold at $443.80.

Open interest rose 6 tonnes yesterday (1,927 Comex lots) on volume of 21,357 contracts.

The active contract fell 90c.

A seller has been prepared to supply over 35 tonnes to the Comex market in the past two days to stop gold rising above $445. Today he was willing to try the downside: by Noon estimated volume was 40,000 – double yesterday’s total. This may well work for the year end: not for January.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

US economic news:

Nov. Existing Home Sales reported 6.94M vs. consensus 6.75M
Prior reading revised to 6.76M from 6.75M.

0:31 API reports crude oil inventories (197K) barrels
Gasoline inventories reported (2.7M) barrels, while distillate inventories +525Kbarrels.
* * * *

0:38 DOE reports crude oil inventories (800K) barrels vs. expectations +200K barrels
Gasolineinventories reported barrels +900K vs. consensus +1.0M barrels. Distillate inventories reported (800K) barrels vs. consensus (500K)barrels.
* * * *

Treasuries lower as auction fails to cheer:

NEW YORK, Dec 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were modestly lower on Wednesday after an auction of $24 billion in new two-year notes drew only scant demand in a holiday-thinned market.

Particularly troubling was the lack of interest from indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks.

The $24 billion in new two-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 3.12 percent, the highest at such a sale since May 2002. The auction drew bids for 2.20 times the amount on offer, well short of November's lofty 2.61 and the 2.25 year-to-date average.

Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and offshore central banks, picked up just $7.90 billion, or 33 percent, of the whole issue, down from the 42.0 percent taken in the November auction.

That was lowest showing for a two-year auction this year, saddling primary dealers with a bulky $15.23 billion worth of short-term debt. ..

-END-