Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Gold hat den Boden erreicht und ist bereit für eine Kurssteigerung:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson021405.html

February 14 – Gold $425.80 up $5.40 – Silver $7.29 up 15 cents

A Move In Gold Above $432.50, Basis April, Should Take It To $500 - MS

You are the same today that you are going to be five years from now except for two things: the people with whom you associate and the books you read...Charles Jones

GO GOLD RUSH 21!!!

Gold came out swinging last night in Asia, rising $2 on a weaker dollar. The dollar weakened further in European/US trading and gold followed through nicely on the upside. There are a number of constructive developments to report.

One of the most important in my book is a new recovery high in gold euro terms. Right after Comex closed, it registered 328.06. This is important because it means gold is continuing to advance in foreign currency terms and not only moving up on dollar weakness.

One of the reasons for this strength in all currencies is due to the very firm physical market. John Brimelow and I have been pounding the table re this critical gold factor for some time now and it is finally kicking in as far as the price is concerned. The bad guys in The Gold Cartel have their hands full trying to figure how they are going to handle physical market tightness as this year wears on.

The following comment caught my attention this morning:

"A Move Above $432.50, Basis April Gold, Should Take Us To $500." This is according to the gold trading folks at Morgan Stanley. It carries weight with me for the following reasons:

*Morgan Stanley bought heavily with the rest of The Gold Cartel when spot gold broke to the $410/$413 area. They have not dumped those positions and are pretty much flat according to my sources, although still very long silver.

GATA has never officially thrown Morgan Stanley into The Gold Cartel camp. However, they know the drill and how the cabal operates. They use this input to their advantage and often trade gold accordingly.

They have to know the effort The Gold Cartel just made to bury gold, assisted by the orchestrated IMF gold sales flap. While the price setback has been steep, a very firm cash market kept gold well above $400, preventing the cabal from taking gold even further off the investment radar screen.

$430 spot gold is key for many technical reasons. Should that area be taken out for any reason, it should put enough nails in the coffin to nullify the cabal’s attempt to keep gold buried. It tells me the cash market was eating up too much gold at too cheap gold prices below $420/$430 and they knew they could not keep up the pressure.

Morgan Stanley has to understand the cabal will go all out to prevent this area from being breached. Therefore, if it does so it means the cabalites don’t have the firepower to keep gold suppressed for too much longer. A move above $430 should complete nine years of attacking gold to prevent it from clearing and holding above the $420 to $430 level.

Of course, I don’t want to put the cart before the horse. Gold has now checked the $400 to $410 support area and held. From a longer term perspective, this will gain in relevance should it continue to remain that way. While I believe $400/$410 will hold, who knows? I never thought, with the physical market so strong, the cabal could get gold down to the levels we endured early last week. Yet, here we are, just recovering from the nausea. If my input is correct about Morgan Stanley, they are content for the moment to see how gold plays out over the near term. Should gold be able to trade at $432.50, basis April, it would signal to them much higher prices are in order – and that the Gold Cartel’s finest days are behind them. According to my source, this will bring them back into the fray in a major league way.

April Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/45

The gold open interest only rose 514 contracts to 259,382. This is very constructive as it leaves room for 120,000 spec longs to pile into the market in the coming weeks and months to take gold much higher. What transpired technically on Thursday and Friday seems pretty obvious.

Thursday new specs jumped in on the long side while The Gold Cartel capped the rally right below a $6 advance on the day. The old spec shorts stayed that way. On Friday we know the cabal and Morgan Stanley were sellers. This time a number of those shorts caught on the wrong side covered, which is why the OI did so little.

What a turnaround! Only four trading sessions ago, gold sank to $409.60 and the herd was calling for gold to take out $400 on the downside. Now gold is $16 away from that low and looks more likely to take out $430 key resistance than $400 major support.

As good as today was, The Gold Cartel made sure their $6 rule was enforced. At its high, gold was up $5.70 - enter stage right and left by the bums. Got to give them credit for their consistency, which, of course, gives them away over and over and over again.

Just received a floor recap from a real pro. Using his words, not mine…The funds were massive buyers with most all the dealers selling. He told my source he couldn’t understand why the dealers were so aggressive with so much fund buying. He called it "weird." According to this pro, had the dealers not been so aggressive, the price would have gone much higher and they could have maximized their sales to a much greater degree by selling at higher levels.

When are some of these pros going to understand, there is a cabal of dealers whose collective objectives are different, which is what makes them illegal and a violation of US anti-trust laws. There objective is to control their market, not seek maximum profits on a daily basis. Of course, over the years they have made billions by ripping off unsuspecting specs. Their objective is to keep gold excitement to a minimum (ergo the $6 Rule) and to keep major technical levels from being breached, if at all possible.

GATA came into existence 6 six years ago because we spotted this fraudulent behavior way back then. Incredible how it can go on and on and only the GATA camp and a few allies are willing to point out the facts.

Our STALKER GOLD source checked in. He looks for gold to go back up. The big talk was over the dollar. The talk over in Europe, according to this source, is the dollar was "manipulated higher" – G-7 stuff – and should gradually go right back down. They expect gold to act accordingly.

Silver put in a lazy bullish day and drifted up with gold. Attempts to sell it off failed all day long and for the third day in a row it closed on its highs after impressive gains.

March silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/35

Silver has left two gaps below, which will be a near-term magnet for the shorts. Yet, the more significant gap to be filled is up in the $7.80 area on the upside. It is enormous. It ought to be filled by the end of the month.

The silver open interest only rose 217 contracts to 96,422. Room for 30,000 longs to pile in here and take silver to new multi-years highs.

Silver has had quite a run. A little rest here would be normal for any market which has made such a move so fast.

The dollar fell .61 to 84, while the euro rose 1.06 to 129.79.

March euro
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/35

In addition to gold and silver, wheat and beans put in solid days to the upside, lifting the CRB by 1.67 to 287.87. Crude oil was all over the place once more, however, by the close it rose around 25 cents per barrel to $47.44.

The John Brimelow Report

Advantage Bulls? - CFTC & Gartman say so

Monday, February 14, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.09, PM $6.26, with world gold at $422.20 and $422.65. Adequate for legal imports. India’s gold import propensity has held up pretty well considering world gold has risen some $9 in two business days.

Generally, the world’s largest gold buyer had a pretty cheerful day, with the stock market reaching an all-time high intra day, and January exports announced at +33% vs. ’04. Large recent inflows of foreign portfolio investment funds have been reported; the chief of the Reserve Bank gave a speech grumbling about the distorting effect these could have on India’s economy. An obvious way of offsetting these inflows would be to cut import duty on gold, about $7.25 an ounce at present! In any case, further firm support to world gold from India seems assured.

TOCOM returned after a long weekend to find world gold almost $7 higher and the yen firmer. World gold in fact rose to go out $1.80 above the Friday NY close at $422.30, but the impetus did not come from Japan. Open interest rose only the equivalent of 1,232 Comex lots, and the Mitsubishi data suggests the "General Public" actually reduced their long position slightly. The active contract closed up 16 yen on volume equal to 37, 642 Comex lots (up 164%); most of this was probably Trade House arbitrage. (NY on Friday traded 48,051 contracts. Open interest rose 514 lots.)

On Comex on Friday morning the currently usual sell-off attempt was defeated quite decisively. As UBS puts it

"On Friday in New York gold initially struggled to break through resistance at $418/oz…Eventually determined buying lifted gold through this key near-term level and light stops were triggered, taking the metal above $420/oz. Volume above $420 was rather light but gold managed to test the $422 level although not successfully during US trading."

Several observers detected Fund buying.

So apparently does The Gartman Letter, which has heeded this by going long:

"SPOT GOLD: OK, the time has come to return as gold market bulls... reluctantly, for we hate gold generally, but the trend is clear…we have stood aside from the gold market since early December when we sold our last remaining gold shares. It does appear that the uptrend, going back for several years, has held. The market has gone from overbought then to oversold recently. Support has held and we are going to return as gold market bulls this morning upon receipt of this letter, buying the GLD i-shares.. If this is a bull market, then new highs are likely and our risk/reward is very positively skewed in our favour." (JB emphasis).

Gartman’s record on gold lately has been good. Curtailing his prejudice, he went long on the breakout in October, sold essentially at the highs in December, and subsequently resisted the temptation to go short. However the credit for this is apportioned between his sagacity and the quality of the input he gets from his Hedge Funds friends (the latter being not unimportant in my view), this is a significant call.

Quite dramatic CFTC data is supportive. Various commentators supply their favored dimension. Large spec gross short the biggest since 20 July 1999 (gold was in the $260s); Large spec futures long a three year low – a level normally associated with a price $100 lower. Net spec long the lowest since July 2003 (when gold was in $350s); Gross spec short the largest since April 2001 (when gold was in the $260s). Given Gartman’s view/information, perhaps the most significant measure is that the total Comex spec long is only 3.8 Mm ozs, down from 20+ Mm ozs last November – room for over 500 tonnes of spec buying.

This is a chart illustrating the situation.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2005/midas/midas0214A.gif]

Overall, the best discussion of the CFTC data was posted at Gold Eagle by Dan Norcini, with valuable charts. See

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/norcini021105.html

He concludes

"Each of…three reaction price setbacks has seen… in spite of the fact that more FUND LONG LIQUIDATION as a percentage of the total open interest has occurred with each major price setback over the last two years, the corresponding gold price drop… has been successively shallower… What this tells me as a trader analyzing this market is that more and more buying is emerging on each of these larger price setbacks in gold and that the buyers are absorbing successively larger amounts of selling - so much so that gold's price dips are becoming more and more shallow. That can only bode well for the gold price…" (JB emphasis)

JB

Love having "foot in mouth" Dennis Gartman around. According to DG, gold was supposed to be a "train wreck" only a week or two ago. Now he is bullish. He must have received the word from his cabal clique their raid was ending. That’s his business and if he is calling gold well lately, good for him. My chuckle is with his "hate gold" comment. Huh? Why? Oh, I see, because if gold is going up a good deal, it means his Gold Cartel clients are unhappy. It’s bad for Wall Street. I get it. No wonder he attacks GATA all the time. God forbid the truth should come about his clients.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

One of the quietest US stock market days in some time. The DOW lost 5 to 10,791, while the DOG gained 6 to 2082.

Earlier today on the dollar:

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell by the most in almost three weeks against the yen after a government report showed Japan's current-account surplus unexpectedly swelled in December.

``Traders sold the dollar against the yen as soon as they saw the trade surplus figure,'' said Steve Barrow, a currency strategist in London at Bear Stearns Cos. ``The momentum has now shifted negatively for the dollar.''

The dollar also dropped by a cent against the euro after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said late on Feb. 11 that speculators closed bets against the U.S. currency last week. The CFTC's report suggests traders can buy euros with less concern sales by hedge funds will cause their bets to go wrong, said Rizwan Din, a currency strategist at Barclays Capital in London.

-END-

Former silver price rigger and silent Gold Cartel member, AIG, is back in the news for the usual. No wonder they quit the silver price fixing ring in London months ago – an appropriately named business dealing for them to run away from with all the other shady dealings they have been found guilty of.

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. received subpoenas from New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and the Securities and Exchange Commission related to insurance products that may have helped companies smooth earnings.

The subpoenas, received since the world's biggest insurer reported earnings on Feb. 9, also relate to some reinsurance transactions and AIG's accounting for them, the New York-based company said today in a statement. AIG said it is cooperating with the requests.

AIG, which already agreed to pay the SEC $10 million to settle a case involving alleged income-smoothing in 2003, is at least the eighth company to be subpoenaed since Spitzer and the SEC began an industry investigation last year. Regulators are probing whether insurance companies sold non-traditional policies that acted as disguised loans and allowed clients to mask losses.

Two executives pleaded guilty to Spitzer's bid-rigging charges in October. On Feb. 9, the company said it had completed an internal review and found no wrongdoing outside the employees' unit. Shares have risen 8 percent since, in part on optimism that the company's regulatory probes would soon be resolved.

-END-

Rhody on the lease rates:

Good morning:
I am pleasantly surprised this morning that gold and silver prices have followed through from Thursday and Friday's gains in a positive fashion.

Three up days in a row????? Wow. I did notice a curious development in the silver lease rate pattern. There is a developing spike in the LATE terms, which is more pronounced the farther one goes out the rate curve. One year lease rates increased by over one third or by .25%. The surge in leasing affected all terms except the one month. This is unusual. If there is a lease and dump strategy to control the spot price, it occurs in the near terms, not the longer terms. So if this is not a price control strategy, what is it? The other possibility that comes to mind is leasing to fulfill anticipated futures contract commitments. Would entities who are naked short on COMEX use someone else's silver to fill futures contracts???? You bet.
Regards, Rhody.

From a bulliondesk article:

<>Currencies: IMF Gold Revaluation Wouldn?t Tarnish the USD
Karin Kimbrough & Sharon Yeshaya (New York)

IMF gold sale unlikely

http://www.morganstanley.com/G…20050214-mon.html#anchor3

Over the years, it has often been suggested that the price of gold affects the value of the USD. However, the available econometric evidence seems to suggest that, if anything, the USD influences gold prices and not vice versa. We note that gold prices have dropped far more than the EUR/USD exchange rate in the last two weeks, which we think is an indication that gold prices are mainly being driven by gold-specific factors currently. Moreover, the 1997 sale of gold by the RBA caused the gold price to fall temporarily, but FX market participants didn’t consider that this action should have much effect on the value of the AUD. Instead, the FX markets were more concerned about the possibility that the RBA would cut interest rates, and this was the reason for the weakening of the AUD/USD rate.

Bottom line: USD higher, gold lower

Given our constructive views on the direction of the dollar, we think that USD-denominated gold prices are likely to come down over the medium term. But in the very near term, both our metals desk and our technical analyst, Drew Baptiste, expect gold prices to rise. Drew is looking for levels as high as $430–440/oz into late winter but shares our view that over the medium term gold prices will fall further. His six-month target for gold is $370/oz.

-END-

Interesting how in one day we learn of two Morgan Stanley views. One is looking for $500 if $430 is breached. The other for $370 either way. What makes the world go round.

Houston’s Dan Norcini earlier:

Just wanted to drop a quick line saying that if gold can manage to hold these gains into the close, we are mapping out one heckuva good looking technical chart pattern on the daily. If it holds near the highs of the day, it will have taken out the downtrend line that has been in place for the last two months. We will still need to get over $430 basis April on a close however as there appears to be a fair amount of resistance in that area. Should that give way, the shorts are in serious trouble and will run as a boat load of stops are sitting just above that area.

HUI close over 210 will signal a short term bottom is in. Ideally, I would like to see a close over 212 in there. That would really be nice coming on the heels of last week's upside weekly reversal. Will have to wait to see how they close today and see if they can avoid the usual 2:00PM melting action that we have seen all too often.

Grains are showing a few signs of life although not confirmed just yet. South American weather woes to blame. All we would need to run the CRB up sharply is rising grains since, as you have repeatedly pointed out, they have been one of the few laggards in the commodity world.

Check with you later.
Dan

The HUI did manage to close above 210, barely. Late in the day it was below that mark. All in all a weak performance considering the strength in gold. If gold were any other market, this could be considered normal market action after the recent gold share strength. What is aggravating is how this seems to occur time and time again when The Gold Cartel and friends are massive sellers on the Comex. Nine times out of ten, gold has dropped the next trading session. The crummy gold share action has telegraphed the next day’s Comex activity too often to be a coincidence.

The HUI finished up at 210.43, up 1.62. The XAU gained only .43 to 95.33. Gold share excitement was MUTED, as is so often par for the course.

HUI above 210 is a plus, however, as Dan noted, it must clear 212 and close there to really gain some steam. Today’s high was 211.66. You can see why by viewing the chart. It broke down from 212 after bouncing around that level for awhile. 220 is the real key, which would be a 50% recovery point from high of the move to the low. A close above 220, the point where the HUI really broke down, and it is all she wrote for the gold bear stock shorts.

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

The gold fundamentals remain superb. The technicals have changed dramatically the last three trading sessions. In each of these sessions, The Gold Cartel has been spotted as featured sellers. With Greenspan speaking in front of the Senate and House on Wednesday and Thursday, our short-term caution flags have to be flying. However, the big picture is bright as can be.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Psychologie von Gold und Silber: derzeit noch nicht im Bewußtsein der breiten Maße

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/stein021505.html

Aus Südafrika kommt die Meldung, dass der Zeitraum für die Goldveredelung in den Raffinerien durch neue Technologien von 4 Tage auf 1 Tag verkürzt werden kann:

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/414596.htm

Inwieweit sich dies auf die Produktion auswirkt, ist in diesem Artikel nicht klar erkenntlich. Sofern aber keine anderen Limitfaktoren vorliegen, müßte sich dies sehr vorteilhaft auswirken, d.h. man könnte mit dieser Technologie im gleichen Zeitraum mehr Gold veredeln.

February 15 – Gold $425.60 down 20 cents – Silver $7.34 up 5 cents

Silver Continues To Move Higher, CRB At Multi-Decade Highs Again

Nothing is as real as a dream. The world can change around you, but your dream will not. Responsibilities need not erase it. Duties need not obscure it. Because the dream is within you, no one can take it away. ..Tom Clancy

GO GATA!!!

The Gold Cartel went into action yesterday as soon as the Comex closed, as they so often do…the reason being they can influence the market at that time of day using up little ammunition and on light volume. Soon after the Access Market opened, gold was down 90 cents right off the bat. By the time I went to sleep, gold was down $2.40 even though the dollar was only slightly higher. When I woke up the euro was .45 higher with gold coming back to down 50 cents. Had the crooks not gone into action, gold would have been due $2 higher and $430 would have been threatened. That is how these bums play this crooked game. That is how it works and how they fleece you. Anyone watching the gold market from last night’s close to this morning’s Comex opening knows exactly what I am referring to.

What a farce of a market! First there was the obvious crummy action of the shares yesterday, which foretold of a Gold Cartel attack today. Then, there was the obvious Access Market action last night, followed by the euro going up .55 today and gold only ALLOWED back to the unchanged+ level for a brief period of time. Any trader could see gold was being set up to be trashed at the slightest opportunity. The cabal was waiting for something. Surely it was this report which they must have had in their back pocket:

9:00 US reports net capital inflows of $61.3B in December vs consensus $58.5B November inflows were revised to $89.3B from $81.0B.
* * * *

This number is widely followed to ascertain the willingness of foreigners to finance our debt. Since it was better than expected, the dollar regained some strength. That was all the bums needed and what they had clearly been waiting for. I blinked and gold was taken down $2 even though the euro was STILL up .30.

However, the best laid plans failed to win the day for the Working Group on Financial Markets and their efforts to prop up the dollar:

2/15 WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Bush administration Tuesday urged Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, calling Syrian forces there a destabilizing presence.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan made the comments minutes after the news emerged that the U.S. was withdrawing its ambassador to Syria…

-END-

The dollar was on the firm side when this news hit the tape. The euro, after tailing off sharply, took off again. So did silver. However, gold was not allowed to go above unchanged for more than a nanosecond. The manipulation was that obvious. If the Syrian news hit the dollar, it should have affected gold to even a greater degree. Nope. Clearly The Gold Cartel operatives were given instructions yesterday and today to keep gold from closing above the $426/$427 area. Mission accomplished.

$430 gold was safe for the time being.

Yesterday I mentioned how gold was breaking out in euro terms. That was all it took for the cabal to go into action. It closed today at 326.40, way off its 328+ high. End of this breakout for the time being. A Gold Cartel mantra is to contain gold in other currencies. Been at that drill for years.

The gold open interest was a stunner to myself and other market watchers. It only rose 692 contracts to 260,074. Our veteran floor source expected it to be 10,000 contracts to 15,000 contracts higher. We know The Gold Cartel and dealers were huge sellers yesterday and the funds were massive buyers. For the OI to rise so little on nearly a limit up day (almost $6) suggests spec shorts were covering those positions like crazy and the dealers were far more long below $420 than previously thought. Thus the spec buying cancelled out the cabal selling from an OI standpoint.