Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

They are buying houses today instead of gold because the Fed has created the environment for housing prices to soar, while The Gold Cartel, with Fed backing, is deliberately capping the price of gold. Today, however, is not tomorrow. It won’t be too long before investors wake up to the changing times. YOU will be there WAY ahead of them.

Slowly but surely the perfect storm continues to build on the horizon:

"The yields on ten-year Treasury paper jumped 18 basis points to 4.27%, their worst weekly performance in NINE YEARS. Since February 9, these ten-year yields have jumped 29 basis points from 3.98% to their 4.27% level on February 18. That's a BIG turnaround, which does not bode well for the future of US financial markets." Cliff Droke.

A revealing USA Gold post:

Goldilox (2/19/05; 00:36:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 129461)
San Diego's Rating Is Cut on $2.7 Billion of Bonds
snip:

From Bloomberg News

San Diego had its credit rating on $2.71 billion of bonds cut by Fitch Ratings on Wednesday over delays in the filing of its fiscal 2003 financial statement and political struggles over closing a $1.2-billion pension fund shortfall.

Fitch cut the rating on the seventh-largest U.S. city's $46-million general obligation bond rating three levels to A, the sixth-highest of its 10 investment-grade credit ratings, while cutting $1.1 billion of sewer revenue bonds two levels to A from AA-minus. The rating company also lowered $1.6 billion of bonds by two to three levels.

San Diego's pension fund has $1.2 billion less than needed to pay all the obligations it will face to retiring city workers over the next several years.
-Goldilox

Pension shortfalls are not just limited to corporate finances, as municipalities are finding their coffers a bit light, as well. If gubmint pension plans start falling like so many domino's, they might have to look at SSI "reform" from a little different perspective.

Watching a civic discussion goup on the local PBS outlet, I heard concerns about SD declaring default or bankruptcy, jobs growth focusing in the tourism market instead of the previously strong medical and technology fields, housing growth not focusing on the areas needed (more lower cost units to match the jobs growth figures), and subpoenas to fiscal authorities over the bond debt miscalculation related to the new ballpark construction.

Flashlights are beginning to blip on mounting fiscal issues.

-END-

Oil news for your perusal:

February 16 – Bloomberg (Mark Shenk): "World oil demand will rise to 83.78 million barrels a day, according to an OPEC report. Chinese oil use will climb by 500,000 barrels a day, to 7 million a day, because of economic growth of 8 percent… ‘The market is very jittery and for good reasons,’ Boone Pickens…said in an interview… ‘Worldwide production is 83 million barrels a day and it’s never going any higher than that."

-END-

Expert says Saudi oil may have peaked
By Adam Porter
Sunday 20 February 2005, 10:58 Makka Time, 7:58 GMT

Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil".

The subject of peak oil, the point at which the world's finite supply of oil begins to decline, is a hot topic in the industry.

Arguments are commonplace over whether it will happen at all, when it will happen or whether it has already happened. Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, believes it "is the world's number one problem, far more serious than global warming".

Saudi oil peaking?

Speaking exclusively to Aljazeera, Simmons came out with a statement that, if proven true over time, could herald by far the biggest energy crisis mankind has known.

"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd)."…

http://english.aljazeera.net/N…2BC-920B-91E5850FB067.htm

-END-

Monday February 21, 5:23 AM EST

By Mona Megalli, Gulf Economics Correspondent

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - Moves by Middle East oil exporters and Russia to switch some revenue from dollars to euros lie behind the U.S. currency's weakness, and a further rise in crude prices could prompt more declines, the billionaire investor George Soros said on Monday.

Soros told delegates to the Jeddah Economic Forum that the dollar's fall should help to lower the U.S current account and trade deficits, but warned that a fall beyond an undisclosed "tipping point" would severely disrupt markets.

The U.S. current account deficit is more than five percent of gross domestic product despite the currency's three-year slide. The dollar, however, has staged a comeback recently, gaining about 3.6 percent against the euro and three percent versus the yen so far this year.

-END-

Here we go again, just what I have been waiting for:

Chancellor urged: sell gold to the Chinese

Heather Stewart, economics correspondent
Sunday February 20, 2005
The Observer

Gordon Brown should use his trip to China this week to urge Beijing on a gold-buying spree if he wants to achieve his debt relief plans, analysts say. A buyer with deep pockets, suggests Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst at Barclays, could be the best route to persuading Washington to back the Chancellor's proposal for an IMF gold reserves sale to help the world's poorest countries.

'If you can find a big buyer, you can do the sale without affecting the market. China and Japan are the potential white knights, because their gold reserves are so small,' said Naqvi.

Fears that a sell-off could send the gold price plunging have provoked fury among US senators, 20 of whom last week wrote to the Treasury Secretary, John Snow, urging him to reject the plan, which the IMF had been asked to investigate following a summit meeting of G7 finance ministers in London earlier this month.

But Naqvi says a sale could aid gold prices if Brown could drum up rich, new customers. The Chinese government holds only 1 per cent of its vast reserves in gold, compared to a global average of around 10 per cent. 'The basic feeling is that they need to diversify out of dollars, and the full 3,000 tonnes of IMF reserves allows them a one-time opportunity to do that.'

The gold reserves plan is the first stage in Brown's year-long campaign to use Britain's chairmanship of the G7 club of rich nations to introduce a 'Marshall plan' for Africa.

Proceeds from a gold sale would be used to pay for complete cancellation of the debts, worth $6bn, owed to the IMF by poor countries. At current gold prices only 420 tonnes (about 14 per cent of the total) would need to be sold to achieve that. 'This stockpile of gold is no use to anyone, and it could be used to help some of the poorest countries in the world,' said a spokeswoman for Oxfam.

Without US backing, Britain will be unable to get the 85 per cent support it needs on the IMF's decision-making committee for the sell-off to go ahead. The alternative is to revalue the reserves - which are written into the Fund's accounts at only $9bn but are thought to be worth up to $44bn.

However, a straightforward sale is thought to be the Fund's preferred option.

A Treasury spokesman denied that Washington would scupper the plan, insisting that Britain hoped to strike a deal on a gold sale or revaluation as soon as April. 'We are waiting for the IMF to produce its report,' he said.

-END-

What you have heard from Britain’s Finance Minister Gordon Brown and the US over the past week or two is nothing more than a Dog and Pony show.

Who out there with any degree of sophistication doesn’t understand that what comes out of these G-7 meetings for public consumption has been agreed upon in advance and behind the scenes? It would be a rare time when this was not the case and some serious candor was vented. Thus when Brown urged the IMF to sell gold and the US objected mildly, it was clear to me something else was at work. To think there were those in the pundit world who used the US comment to knock GATA’s position re the US and gold is beyond embarrassing as to their naivete of the real situation.

This is the deal:

*The work of the GATA camp has revealed the western central banks are short some 15,000+ tonnes of gold MORE than is generally recognized. Likely candidates among these shorts are Britain and Germany. They want to get their gold back before they are humiliated and some public furor breaks out. However, if they go into the marketplace to buy, the price will go bonkers as there already is a HUGE monthly supply/demand deficit. If they can get the Chinese to buy IMF gold, they can get their hands on desperately needed supply without moving up the price. The mechanics would involve some sort of swap transaction with the Chinese, as the British or Germans could gain access to the physical gold the Chinese are already purchasing. Thus, the Chinese could curry a favor and add cheap gold to their growing holdings.

*Point two fits right in with point one. The Chinese are all over the copper market and have been for some time. A ways back the Chinese were scouring Chile for the right properties, including Samex’s land in that country. MIDAS’ information has had them securing a substantial portion of 2005 silver supply. With their massive dollar holdings, it is only reasonable to assume they would be all over gold, especially with the dollar likely to continue stinking up the place.

GATA’s STALKER source has the Chinese buying gold very quietly already. MIDAS reported the Chinese scouring South Africa four years ago to secure supply from gold producers. The Chinese, knowing how sensitive the price of gold is to the US, does not want to rock the boat by being seen as too aggressive in their gold purchases, at least not till it suits them to do so. Their timetable for achieving their goals is far different and longer than in the West. That is common knowledge.

Thus, to be able to accumulate cheap gold from the IMF would be right up their alley. The Russians and Germans know what GATA knows re the true central bank gold situation. Certainly the Chinese know half the central bank gold is gone too. It would make sense they would want to accumulate as much gold as possible at these ludicrously cheap prices.

What is abominable is how and why the US and Britain may be willing to sell both countries out because their own scam is falling apart. What a scandal is brewing here!

Copper prices at 16-year high amid strong Chinese demand

Charlotte Moore
Saturday February 19, 2005
The Guardian

World copper prices touched a 16-year high yesterday as strong Chinese demand for the metal showed no signs of easing up.

Traders said flows from investment funds pushed the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange to $3,230 (£1,706) a tonne during frantic trading.

Copper has risen sharply over the past year as the strongest growth of the global economy for 30 years boosted the prices of commodities across the board. China's industrialisation has been a key driver of commodity prices as the rapidly growing economy sucks in all kinds of metals. Copper is widely used by the construction and power-generation industries.

Adam Rowley, a commodities analyst at Macquarie, said: "There has been strong investment in the Chinese power sector to compensate for the severe power shortages seen over the past few years and a big chunk of Chinese demand for the metal is coming from this."

Figures showed that production of power-generation equipment in China doubled last year, he added.

Global inventory levels of the metal are at record lows but mining companies are beginning to increase the amount of copper they produce. It usually takes three years before the metal is on the market from the time the mining company decides to produce more, Mr Rowley said….

Good grief, will wonders ever cease - Dennis Gartman comentary today:
Turning to gold, where we have once again re-joined the bullish camp for the first time since early December when we exited all long positions when spot gold was trading just above $450, we note that confusion reigns regarding potential IMF sales of gold from its reserves... or the possibility of revalueing its reserves to current spot gold prices. The Chancellor of the Exchequer in the UK, Mr. Brown, has led the campaign for such sales and has opened the debate. Obviously, most of the gold mining industry is opposed to them, and so too are we the more we consider them. Far better to allow the IMF to revalue its gold hoard to present market levels and then use that upward revision to its balance sheet to sponsor debt forgiveness efforts for LDC's than to keep pressure upon gold prices through gold sales that we think do damage to the nations that mine it. We find it disconcerting then that we find ourselves agreeing with GATA on this issue, but we do. There are better ways to accommodate debt forgiveness and/or debt consolidation than through gold sales. Those other paths should be explored:

-END-

More on GLD from James Turk in his Freemarket Gold & Money Report over the weekend. Seems to me James has had this one nailed for some time. Proof/evidence of the correctness of his initial assertions continue to mount:

THE GOLD ETF
I have been very critical of GLD, the new exchange-traded fund for gold. My point has been that it is not an alternative to owning physical metal. Rather, it is just another paper alternative promising to deliver gold.

Consequently, I have been wondering how GLD would prepare its financial statements, given that the prospectus discloses that gold stored in its subcustodians and sub-subcustodians (which could be all of GLD's gold) is not audited, or even inspected. Its recently filed 10-Q answers this question.

The asset reported on GLD's balance sheet says: "Investment in Gold". It does not say just: "Gold". By declaring GLD's asset to be an "investment", it is an easier hurdle to meet for auditing purposes.

Investments in gold can be nearly anything gold related, and for example, include gold certificates and other promises to pay gold. All GLD has to do to satisfy the auditors therefore is to show them a bank statement of the Bank of England for example, or any other subcustodian (i.e., a piece of paper) that says gold is stored with them.

If GLD declared its asset to be "Gold", they would have to substantiate to their auditors that the gold really exists, which GLD of course cannot do because of the inability to audit or even inspect gold stored in subcustodians and sub-subcustodians.

Thus, this 10-Q just re-confirms what I and others have concluded all along GLD is just another paper scheme. It should not be considered as an alternative to physical gold ownership because it is not. But we only need logic, and not the 10-Q, to tell us that.

Since launching in November 2004, GLD has gathered some $2 billion of assets. Its sponsors would have us believe that this $2 billion is newly created gold demand, but this proposition is self-evidently preposterous given that the gold price has fallen $30 since GLD was launched.

How much of that $2 billion would have been used to purchase physical metal if GLD hadn't existed? How much higher would gold be today if GLD wasn't launched? So do not view GLD as an alternative to physical gold, because it's not.

-END-

Michel de Chabert-Ostland wonders if any Café member has any further insight into the Swiss and their gold:

Hi Bill,
An article on the SNB's gold holdings appeared in the last page of the first section of the FT's Dec. 7th issue. It states the following:

1. " By May, the programme ( of selling 1/2 of its total of 2600 tonnes ) will have raised about $21 bn ...".

2. Apparently the SNB has a lot of money to disperse and there is a big dispute in Switzerland as to where it goes. But my interest in emailing this to you is the following from the FT article:

" The sums involved are prodigious. This year, the central bank will pass about SFr2.9bn ( $2.5bn ) to the state. Its profits comprise operating earnings, COMPLEX BACKPAYMENTS, AND SFr 400m IN GOLD -RELATED REVENUES " ( MY CAPS ).

I was stunned by the term " complex backpayments " but even more so by " SFr 400m in gold-related revenues ". Even if they had the $21bn at the beginning of the year plus whatever else they had before, it would be an extraordinary return on capital. How could a central bank show such profits when they are by definition not a trading firm ? Could they have been partners with the bullion banks in their manipulation of the gold price and have profited very handsomely over many years from this arrangement and those profits are now showing up miraculously on their books? I smell a rat here and I would like very much one of your bright analysts to look into it, time providing.
Best Regards,
Michel de Chabert-Ostland

Barrick Gold continues to confound and appears to be what it is, a stooge for The Gold Cartel:

Bill,
According to Mining Weekly, "Dehedging in the fourth quarter of 2004 (Q4) maintained its elevated levels, touching 3,64-million oz." I find it odd that with all this de-hedging activity going on, Barrick did not report any de-hedging activity at all for the fourth quarter. There's something strange going on there - as usual.
Best wishes,
Peter R.

From Derek VanArtsdalen in San Antonio on the HUI:

Howdy, Bill:
I just completed a study of the HUI since the beginning of the bull market starting in 2001. I happened across a six-step price pattern that seems to have repeated itself almost move-for-move in the first two phases of the HUI's advance. Here's what I found...

Assuming the pattern holds (and that's the crucial phrase!!), we have indeed seen the bottom for the HUI. The big climb for the first phase lasted six months and took the HUI up six bars on the graph (each bar equals 15 points, so 90 points total). The pattern seems to have repeated itself exactly in Phase II, which took the HUI up nine bars on the graph and lasted about nine months.

So the second "wave" up was approximately 50% bigger than wave one in almost every respect, including sideways chops, retracements and gains. Perhaps this pattern reflects the scientific formula for "pi" or even a fibonnaci relationship. Of that I'm not really sure.

Anyway, if what I've identified has merit, the HUI should begin a steady climb up without much retracement for the next 9 months (minimum) to something like 12 or 13 months at the outside (if the 50% thing holds). In other words, it's this next major leg up (Phase III) that should be the doozy! Nature has a way of clustering things in groups of three, it seems, and if this pattern does repeat, the third time will definitely be charming for precious metals investors.

By my calculations, the HUI should reach no less than 375 to 390 and could go even higher. The time frame for that peak should be anywhere from December this year to perhaps as late as April or so of 2006. The point is, if I'm right about this pattern then the big move up has ALREADY BEGUN and we shouldn't see any major retracements in the HUI for a good, long while.

All of this is just theory, of course, but the chart action sure isn't theory. It's historical fact. You can see instantly that each piece of Phase II is about a 50% magnification of the corresponding piece of Phase I. Not only that, but the MACD patterns of the beginnings of both big moves up were the same in both phases and it's now in exactly the same position as it was at the beginning of the first two. We just need the blue MACD line to cross up and through the red MACD line on the 4-year HUI weekly chart. The MACD seems poised to do so within the next four to eight weeks (unless, of course, the bad guys can find a way to prevent it).

The main thing is this: for my pattern to hold we absolutely CANNOT see the HUI move below its recent low for the move. Otherwise, back to the drawing board...
Derek

Spent a good amount of time this weekend on Gold Rush 21. What is most encouraging is to receive this sort of feedback – from a fellow Café member in Australia:

"I have spoken to two CEOs, each of small to mid range precious metal miners…..Both men expressed interest, I sent them a Midas commentary. Bob had already been told by another shareholder when I spoke. I will be trying a few others."

In looking up the addresses of these precious metals firms to send invitation, I came across a very useful web site in Australia:

http://www.reflections.com.au/…n/Companies/Profiles.html

This is no time to hold back on contacting your favorite gold and silver companies. While August may seem a long way away, arrangements need to be made way in advance due to the location of our international conference in The Yukon. In addition, there are other concerns. For South African firms, for example, many SA citizens book winter holidays that time of year and many of the flights are already filling up. Received that input today after calling my friend Peter George in Cape Town.

Just as important to appreciate at this point in time is the conference will be sold out in the months to come. There are only so many rooms in Dawson City (we have booked a little over 100). Can’t have our guests sleeping outside with the bears.

Technically, please note how important 210/212 HUI and $430 gold is.

April Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/45

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

There is powerful resistance for both at those levels. Once they are taken out, which I expect to occur this week, both gold and the HUI should take off.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

So schnell kann´s gehen. Heute morgen sagen Experten vorher, daß Gold unwahrscheinlich die 420-428$ Bandbreite durchstößt und wenige Stunden später ist Gold bei 433$.

MARKET TALK: Gold Unlikely To Break $420-$428 For Now
Feb 22, 2005 - 08:26:44 HKT
Dow Jones Newswires

Spot gold last $427.45/oz, still trapped by narrow range set by EUR/USD, after thin trading on absence of U.S., Monday. $428-$432 resistance looks too strong for now ; more likely to consolidate further in current $420-$428 range, says Bullion Desk's James Moore. Still taking most cues from EUR/USD, with currency/metal traders' eyes on release of FOMC minutes Thursday morning.(JAD) (Delayed by 1 hour)-0-

Ich befürchte, Bill Murphy wird heute wieder einen Anfall kriegen.

Gold bislang nur um 7,30 Dollar hoch.

Warten auf die Goldkabale

...diese "Experten" haben alle nicht die leiseste Ahnung, was passiert, wenn die Gold-Kabale und die "lass den Markt nicht um mehr als 6 $ pro Tag steigen" - Strategie einmal mangels Manipulationsmasse nicht mehr funktioniert. Wir werden das alle in den nächsten max. 3 Jahren in der ersten Reihe beobachten können.

Chefexperte Wresniok-Rosbach kommt auch schon seit Tagen nicht mehr mit der Revision seiner Kursprognosen hinterher. Diese "offiziösen" Erklärungsversuche und technischen Wetterprognosen sind gleichermaßen unfundiert, gesteuert, unseriös, inhaltsleer, peinlich und/oder einfach nur überflüssig. Auch die Leser- und Anleger-Masse wird es irgendwann merken - zuerst wahrscheinlich über die Explosion des Silbermarktes.

Lee vergleicht den Uranium-Kurs mit dem Silberkurs und stellt einen Parallelverlauf der Kurse im Abstand von 12-18 Monate fest:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/lee022105.html

Der Uranium-Kurs ist seinerzeit auf 20 $ explodiert !

February 22 – Gold $434.20 up $7.20 – Silver $7.49 up 10 cents

It Doesn’t Get Any Better, Yet $6 Rule Still Reigns / CRB Explodes

To change your life;

-Start immediately
-Do it flamboyantly
-No exceptions...William James

GO GATA!!!

GO GOLD RUSH 21!!!

If someone were to ask me to draw up a scenario in which gold should rise $10 to $20 during the Comex trading hours, it would be a day which looks like this one. It doesn’t get any better:

*For starters the dollar was clobbered on this news:

"The central bank, which has $200 billion in reserves, will "diversify the currencies in which it invests," Reuters said yesterday, citing a Bank of Korea spokesman in a parliamentary report. Byun Jai Yung, head of the bank's planning department, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview that he can't comment.