Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The Korelin Economics Report Discusses Putting Recent Gold Price Levels into Inflationary Perspective with Neil McMillan

http://www.kereport.com

Neil McMillan, President of gold producer Claude Resources (AMEX "CGR" and TSE "CRJ"), joined Paul and I on the latest edition of The Korelin Economics Report. Our discussion with Neil gave credence to the argument that gold could very easily be trading in the four figure range sooner rather than later. This becomes apparent when one adjusts the 1980 price of gold for inflation and brings it up to the present day. If you missed the show last weekend, check out our segment with Neil by going to http://www.kereport.com and clicking on Segment 5.

In another segment, we continued our discussion of the effect of Petrodollars on decisions within the international community with Jim Willie of The Hat Trick Letter. Jim brought out some thought provoking ideas, which could explain political relationships around the world and their effects on commodity pricing. Jim’s discussion gave us serious thought about what Bill Murphy and the folks at GATA have to say about gold price manipulation. We will be taking this up with Bill on next week’s show.

Jay Taylor discussed Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s recent candid statements concerning the U.S. economy in another segment of the show. If you think that everything is coming up rosy in the financial world, listen to what Jay has to say.

We also followed up last week’s report on Northern Dynasty Minerals with Lawrence Roulston. Great timing as Lawrence alerted listeners to the new resource estimate of Northern Dynasty just shortly after the press release came out. Lawrence began following this company before anyone else so we feel that has the best ideas to share with our listeners as to its future potential.

Paul and I wrapped up the show with a discussion of two new debt "opportunities" available to consumers. Listen to this segment and perhaps you, like other listeners, will send us an e-mail to thank us for keeping you out of them.

* * * * * * *

Alexander Korelin is the co-host of The Korelin Economics Report along with Paul Warren. This program is syndicated nationally on Talkstar and can also be listened to on the Internet by going to http://www.kereport.com and clicking on "recent programs". Guests pay no fees to appear on the program and neither Mr. Korelin nor Mr. Warren own any stock in the companies discussed unless it is fully disclosed.

March 10 – Gold $442.10 up 40 cents – Silver $7.48 down 11 cents

Why The Historic Gold/CRB Comparison To Today Is So Important

There are two mistakes one can make along the road to truth - not going all the way, and not starting...Buddha

GO GATA!

Even the newest of Café members (the ones paying attention to the markets) have to now realize why GATA continues to make a fuss about the rigging of the gold price. Rarely in a one week period has The Gold Cartel’s price manipulation been so blatant this many days in a row. Each time you think it can’t get worse, it does.

It is important to keep in mind the richest and most powerful people in America are stealing from you in violation of every principle our country is supposed to stand for. Not only are they insulting you and swiping your money, these Orwellian bums are easing our once great country down a very dark path.

Last night was wild. Naturally, the cabal goon squad took gold down as usual in the Kangaroo trading hours. This time to the tune of $2. Then, out of nowhere, the dollar was slaughtered on this comment:

Dollar Declines After Koizumi Says Japan May Diversify Reserves

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped against the euro and the yen in Asia after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Japan ``in general'' needs to consider diversifying the investment of its foreign reserves.

The dollar weakened to $1.3438 against the euro at 11:26 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3392 late yesterday in New York, according to electronic currency-dealing system EBS. Against the yen it fell to 103.85 from 103.93. –END-

Good grief. Should the Japanese become leery of funding our growing debt in the US, interest rates will go through the roof. There is NO WAY that would not occur. Not only was the dollar battered, the bonds also tanked on the news. However, gold was not allowed to go up on the session. All rallies were stopped cold by the same crooks. The fact that the euro was up over .60 meant nothing. Once again we see how the key to gold is NOT what the dollar does. It is what the corrupt cabal is able to pull off versus a surging physical gold market.

Well, the financial brass in Japan must have croaked after hearing of their Prime Minister’s comment. As in the case of the Koreans, they must have received phone calls from the US Treasury within minutes to retract the truth and start lying like the US does in order to stop a run on the dollar and bonds. Voila, shortly thereafter:

Japan repeats no plan to switch reserves to euro

TOKYO, March 10 (Reuters) - Japan reiterated on Thursday that it has no plan to divert its huge foreign currency reserves out of dollars and into euros, playing down earlier comments by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

"We have no plan to change the composition of currency holdings in the foreign reserves and we are not thinking about switching dollar reserves to euro holdings," a senior finance ministry official told Reuters.

He said Koizumi's earlier comments on the need to have diversity in the reserves were referring to general issues such as having diversity in asset types among each currency composition in the reserves by considering its stability, liquidity and profitability. –END-
03-09-05 2204ET

Japan MOF Tanigaki: Must Be Very Cautious On FX Reserves

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said Thursday that the government must be very cautious when discussing the issue of the nation's foreign exchange reserves portfolio.

"With (foreign exchange) reserves this large, we must consider various factors, and we must take serious consideration of the markets as well," Tanigaki told reporters after an Upper House budget committee session.

"We have been very cautious in the decisions we have taken on foreign exchange reserves," he added.

Tanigaki was speaking shortly after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told a parliamentary committee that in general, it is better to diversify investments.

The finance minister said the prime minister's remarks may have been taken as meaning there has been a change in Japan's policy regarding foreign reserves...

-END-

Forget what the Asians are putting out for public consumption. What is key in my book is all the smoke coming out of Asia. The original comments re the dollar by the Koreans and Japanese were no accident. A blind man can see where the dollar is headed. The only question is how the Asians reduce their dollar holdings, when, and how to do so in a manner which doesn’t spook the entire world financial system. You can be sure this is just what they are planning to do to some degree and, regardless of their modus operandi, it IS GOING to have a major impact on US financial markets the rest of this year.

There was no point in watching gold today as I knew it had NO CHANCE of going up much. Not after the way the crooks have been going after it. An atom bomb could go off and it wasn’t going to go up during this trading session. Meanwhile, the CRB rose ANOTHER 1.45 to 315.15 - led by soybeans, coffee and OJ – for the zillionth day in a row. Look at these charts. One moon shot after another:

April CRB
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/45

May soybeans
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SB/55

March OJ
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/OJ/35

March coffee
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CF/35

But, there is no inflation!

Most of you know GATA put out a press release today on Dan Norcini’s outstanding CRB/gold work presented in last evening’s MIDAS. Reuters picked it up for a change. Bloomberg ignored it, naturally. I also sent my Wednesday commentary around the internet to give Dan’s revelations as much exposure as possible.

What Dan has brought to our attention is a BIG DEAL for many reasons. First, let me step back in time. I first became interested in gold when I met my friend Frank Veneroso at the Miami airport in January 1996 as he was passing through on the way back from South America. He had just finished a bullion report in which he stated that on a commodity basis alone the fair price of gold was $600. At the time it was trading around $390. This caught my attention. Not long after, gold was shooting up, to $417 as I recall, when The Gold Cartel went into action to bury the price. The cabal went after it with a vengeance from that point on for some time, eventually taking it all the way down to $252.

I was not a happy camper. At first, I kept thinking how could Frank be so wrong? I had seen him nail market after market over the years; including bonds, copper, cattle, the US stock market, etc. Anyway, I figured he would be right sooner or later. Usually is, so I stuck with it.

Naturally, that is one of the fascinations I have with what Dan brought to our attention:

.........................CRB.......Spot Gold

6/30/1980

286.40

647.4

7/31/1980

302.30

619.7

8/29/1980

308.40

635

9/30/1980

319.40

671.5

10/31/1980

327.10

636

11/28/1980

334.80

624.6

12/31/1980

308.50

591.3

Why is this such a big deal? The way I see it:

*For years I have been yapping in my MIDAS commentary that the fair price of gold is north of $600 per ounce. Part of my reasoning was from what Frank wrote nearly a decade ago about the commodity case for gold alone (not including any extra investment demand). This CRB/gold report establishes another obvious reason why the price of gold should be north of $600.

*GATA has accumulated volumes upon volumes of various bits of evidence which all lead to the same conclusion: the gold market is rigged by a Gold Cartel. We also know how they have done it via their flooding the market with central bank gold, lent/swapped out in surreptitious fashion. While this evidence would be strong enough for a prosecutor to get a conviction beyond a reasonable doubt if it were a capital murder case, much of that evidence is complicated and very detailed. It is difficult for many to wade through. However, this simple historic comparison of gold to the CRB and their relationship now says it all. Anyone can easily comprehend something is very wrong here.

The ONLY logical explanation is the price of gold is unnaturally low and artificially suppressed by some force.

*The more people who see this historic CRB/gold comparison the better because it will cause them to ask for an explanation from the retards in the mainstream gold analyst world. Of course, any explanation other than the gold price is rigged will make no sense, which will lead to GATA, which can lead to The Gold Cartel being found out by the entire investment world. Once this happens, checkmate. The bums will be carried out on GATA’s stretchers.

For example, it will create queries such as what Dan N brings to our attention:

That GATA release sure is making the rounds Bill. That's good news for us.

I have been thinking a lot about the inflation factor. Some of the commentary I have been reading attempts to adjusts the current CRB index reading with the 1980 levels and basically says that it really is not all that high when inflation is factored in, just like the story I just sent you about gasoline prices.

The problem with that argument, the way I see it, is twofold. First - why then has gold not reflected an inflation adjusted price itself in today's dollars? That would easily put it over $600 or higher. Four hundred dollar an ounce gold in today's dollars is probably something like $200-$250 in 1980 dollar terms. Secondly - if inflation is that big of a problem that the dollar has lost so much of its purchasing power since then, why hasn't gold, which is the ultimate inflation hedge and store of value risen to compensate for the debauching of the dollar and traded considerably higher than its 1980 levels?

Let those brainiacs figure that one out.
Dan

US gasoline price breaks $2 a gallon, AAA says

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - The average price American drivers pay for a gallon of regular gasoline rose above $2.00 on Thursday for the first time since autumn, the AAA motor club said.

The average price at the pumps for regular gasoline across the U.S. rose to $2.003 a gallon from the $1.993 a gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA.

That's about a nickel below AAA's highest recorded price of $2.054 posted on May 26, 2004.

Prices for mid-grade gasoline averaged $2.126 a gallon while drivers using premium to fuel up their cars were paying $2.204 a gallon, according to the survey which is based on daily credit card swipes at more than 60,000 stations around the country.

Recent price rises in gasoline have tracked soaring crude oil costs, as energy demand increased from western countries and the developing giants such as China and India. Crude oil costs account for about half the price of gasoline.

On Tuesday, the U.S. government projected that gasoline prices will hit a new record high this spring, reaching a national monthly average of $2.15 a gallon.

During the busy 2005 driving season, which runs from April through September, gasoline will average $2.10 a gallon, up 20 cents from the same period last year, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly energy forecast.

While prices are near record levels in nominal terms, they remain
well-below the $3 peak hit in 1981 when adjusted for inflation.

-END-

*You can present the CRB/gold dichotomy to your gold companies and explain to the CEO just how much The Gold Cartel is ripping them off, both the company and their shareholders. If this latest revelation doesn’t wake and shake them up, nothing will. Consider them both hopeless and an of airhead mentality.

I see gold closed up a whopping 40 cents with the CRB up sharply (even with oil DOWN $1.25!) and the dollar slightly lower. The euro rose .31 to 134.31. The gold farce worsens and still the dummies in the mainstream gold world refuse to confront the facts and the truth. They are beyond contempt. The gold open interest rose 5958 contracts to 302,293. Investors, seeing commodity prices go berserk and the dollar and bond market under pressure, are innocently (and rightly so) buying gold which seems a prudent thing to do in this environment, especially since it is under priced by more than $200 per ounce.

However, no matter how much buying shows up, The Gold Cartel sellers say no way is gold going to be allowed to go up because they have rigged the market. After all, they believe they own the Casino and have the right to make their own rules – anti-trust laws and free markets be damned. What a bunch of sickos!

Clearly, the bums are waiting for ANYTHING to go their way for an excuse to take gold down from these levels. Should the dollar hiccup and rally, they will go all out to press the gold price lower, bringing the floor locals as sellers with them as they both attack the specs.

The only chance we have short-term is the buggers get buried because the dollar really tanks and they lose control of their capping for the time being. Tomorrow we have a January trade number which might do it. Expectations are for it to come in around unchanged at the $56.5 billion level. Oil rose during that month and we know the US consumer was piling on more debt via the recent consumer credit number, so one would think we should get a higher number than expected.

Silver was bopped. I have no clue why. The silver open interest rose 1079 contracts to 103,039.

The John Brimelow Report

Why has gold not gone up more?

Thursday, March 10, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.32, PM $7.71, with world gold at $441.85 and $440.70. Ample, and lavish, for legal imports. The rupee closed at a gold-import facilitating one month high today, amidst reports of continuing strong inflows to the stock market.

Japan continues to stand aside. TOCOM volume fell 56% to equal only 15,002 Comex lots; the active contract fell 1 yen. World gold, however, went out $1.75 above the NY close at $441.75. Open interest edged up the equivalent of 1,039 Comex lots to equal 98,788 NY contracts; Mitsubishi’s data implies that the public added 0.4 tonnes to its long. (NY yesterday traded 57,384 contracts. Open interest leapt another 5,967 lots – 19.2 tonnes – to 302,302.)

Gold rejected a fairly serious effort to break it down in NY yesterday. ScotiaMocatta reports:

"Gold… backed off to 439.80/440.30 by the time New York opened…selling from overseas sources forced the metal to the session low of 438.70/439.20 where funds appeared on the buy side…It appeared as if there were good scale up sell orders in the market, however, constant fund interest managed to take gold to a new high for 2005 of 442.20/442.70 before slipping back to 441.70/442.20at the close."

In the last twelve business days, gold has risen $15.80 ( 3.6%) and open interest has gone up 38,393 contracts – 14.7% or 120.66 tonnes.

Houston commodities trader Dan Norcini raises an interesting point:

"The months listed below are the only time when the CRB was above the 300 level. The lowest gold price was 591… Every other time the CRB had a handle of "3" in front of it, gold was over $600/ounce…Today's close on the CRB was 309.25 - London PM spot Gold price - 437.25 (New York Comex $441.10) - depending on how you measure it; gold should be anywhere from $591/ounce - $647/ounce.

In essence, something funny has happened to the gold market. And clearly, as the open interest surge demonstrates, a large seller is currently preventing gold from joining the general commodity party. Unfortunately from the seller’s point of view, the doggedly resilient physical market refuses to allow a sentiment-shattering decline. A move to new multi year highs seems inevitable.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW rose 46 to 10,852. Liquidity rules the day and the US stock market.

The DOG gave up 2 to 2060.

US economic news:

08:30 Jobless claims for week ended 3/5 reported 327K vs. consensus 310K
Prior week unrevised from 310K.
* * * * *

10:16 US Treasury Secretary Snow reaffirms commitment to strong dollar - Reuters
* * * * *
US Treasury's Snow repeats strong dollar policy

WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Thursday repeated his support for a strong dollar and said the United States remained the safest place for world investors to put their money.

"The U.S. remains the best, safest, most secure place to invest in the world. That is reflected in the fact that we are the leading reserve currency by far," Snow told a Bloomberg Radio interview.

"We continue to reaffirm, and always will, the strong dollar. It is clearly in the nation's interest," he said.

-END-

This Charlie McCarthy routine of his really becomes more inane by the month. Who is he kidding? The US fiscal situation is DETERIORATING, not improving.

The dollar is an avalanche waiting to happen. The only support for his strong dollar policy is the US rigging the gold price. Snow’s rhetoric is laughable. At least he is consistent.

10:00 Jan Wholesale Inventories reported 1.1% vs. consensus 0.6%
Prior reading was 0.4%.
* * * * *

14:00 Feb. Monthly Budget deficit reported $113.9B vs. consensus $100B
* * * *

U.S. February budget deficit swells to $113.94 bln

WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - The United States posted a $113.94 billion February budget deficit, above median Wall Street forecasts and more than the shortfall for the same month last year.

The February deficit, reported on Thursday in the U.S. Treasury Department's monthly budget statement, exceeded the $96.70 billion budget deficit in February 2004. It was the largest deficit on record for the month of February, the Treasury Department said.

Wall Street analysts polled by Reuters had forecast, on average, a $95 billion budget deficit in February, though forecasts ranged from $85 billion to $115 billion. The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan budget watchdog, had forecast February's deficit at $115 billion.

-END-

This couldn’t have helped the January trade deficit either:

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's export growth gathered pace in the first two months, resulting in a trade surplus for the period, as companies such as Motorola Inc. shipped more mobile phones and other electronics to the U.S., Europe and Japan.

Exports rose 37 percent from a year earlier to $95.3 billion after climbing 33 percent in December, the customs bureau said on its Web site. Imports increased 8.3 percent to $84.2 billion and the trade surplus reached $11.1 billion.

The trade gap, which rebounded from a $7.9 billion deficit a year earlier, is fueling calls for China to revise its decade-old currency peg, which the U.S. and Japan say helps Chinese exporters by keeping the yuan's value artificially low. Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday that the government is considering dropping the yuan's peg to the dollar in favor of a link to a basket of currencies.

``We are now building China into a manufacturing as well as a research and development base,'' said Christina Li, a Beijing- based spokeswoman for Motorola Inc., the world's No. 2 mobile- phone maker. ``There's a very good talent pool here and the domestic market potential also attracts us.''

For the first two months, exports were expected to rise 33 percent, according to the median forecast of five economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Imports were forecast to climb 19 percent.

Economists tend to look at combined figures for the first two months of the year to allow for distortions caused by changes in the timing of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in February this year and January in 2004.

For February alone, exports rose 31 percent to $44.5 billion and imports dropped 5 percent to $40 billion, today's report showed. The trade surplus for the month was $4.6 billion….

-END-

Two years ago unthinkable $43 oil was considered to be disastrous for the US economy. My how times have changed. The spin coming out of Wall Street has not.

Dear Bill,
While glancing at CNBC this morning, the topic was high oil prices and the negative effects on the economy. An official from the Dallas Federal Reserve actually said with a straight face that only oil prices in the $80 to $100 range would significantly effect the economy in a negative way. I started to laugh after hearing this ridiculous comment. When I hear this drivel from a Fed official, the term pathological liar comes to mind.

I had thought that Monty Python (an absurd English comedy) went off the air years ago. It appears that Monty Python has taken over the production of CNBC and is determined to make this production as ridiculous as possible.
Regards,
Paul

Jesse has it right:

These pilots remind me of Greenspan and Bernanke.

Two Blind Pilots

Two men dressed in Pilots' uniforms walk up the
aisle. Both are wearing dark glasses, one is using
a guide dog, and the other is tapping his way along
the aisle with a cane.

Nervous laughter spreads through the cabin, but the
men enter the cockpit, the door closes, and the
engines start up.

The passengers begin glancing nervously around,
searching for some sign that this is just a little
practical joke

but none is forthcoming.

The plane moves faster and faster down the runway
and the people sitting in the window seats realize
they're headed straight for the water at the end of
the runway.

As it begins to look as though the plane will plough
into the water, panicked screams fill the cabin.

At that moment, the plane lifts smoothly into the
air. The passengers relax and laugh a little
sheepishly, and soon all retreat into their
magazines, secure in the knowledge that the plane is
in good hands.

In the cockpit, one of the blind pilots turns to the
other and says, "You know, John, one of these days,
they're gonna scream too late and we're all gonna
die."
***

Rhody on silver:

Good morning Bill:
Gold and silver lease rates continue to firm this morning. Gold rates firmed up slightly in the 3 month to one year terms but is still in backwardation out to 3 months. Silver firmed slightly in the near terms and longer terms. You can still borrow gold for one year cheaper than you can borrow silver for one month, but silver's rate curve is the more "normal".

It is clear from this data that some of the ammunition used to cap gold and silver below $447 and $7.80 is borrowed metal.

From the March 2005 report on Silver by CPM group, the LBMA traded about 20 billion ounces of silver in 2002, and this has fallen steadily since. The CPM concludes that this silver is mostly interbank trading. Since total world production is about .75 billion ounces per year and total world visible stockpiles are less than .3 billion (for a total world inventory of about 1 billion ounces) where does the LBMA find 20 billion ounces to trade? Is the same ounce being traded back and forth twenty times or is each ounce being sold twenty times to twenty different people in paper form? See what I mean when I say gold and silver markets are opaque?
Regards, Rhody.
http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html

agree with Peter:

Bill,
If the price of gold suppression scheme wasn't immoral, illegal and harmful to so many, I would laugh at it because it is so dumb. It is based on the same misconceived theory that Franklin Roosevelt's relied on — that government can change reality by fiddling with the price of gold. FDR, on the advice of a Cornell professor who had charted the relationship of gold and commodity prices through the ages, tried to fight deflation by raising gold from $20 to $35 an ounce. When farm commodity prices failed to go up along with gold the president moved on to other things. Reality is that gold doesn't control prices in the real economy — it only reflects them.

Today we have a bunch of "Strong Dollar" advocates trying to hold prices down by keeping the price of gold down. Same concept as FDR's but turned upside down. It isn't working any better, either. All the gold suppression and all the phony statistics in the world can't hide the fact that prices are going up — a lot. Pretty soon gold's price to recognize, but expectations of future inflation and devaluation created by Washington's crazy policies.

The way I see it, if you buy pms or mining stocks now, it's the same as getting a huge discount. The short sighted Cartel subsidizes most of the purchase price. How often does the government give away wealth instead of taking it? This looks to be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity!

Best wishes,
Peter R.

Chuck checked in:
Even though the smaller gold shares are still undergoing selling from those who can't see what is going on, the trend is clear here. We are a moment away from a piling into the whole complex. The big money is first going into the larger capitalized companies while the players who will take the juniors and exploratory miners to unreal prices are still fearful of gold going back to $300. But the break out on many of the higher quality juniors such as Nova, Virginia and Wheaton signify that this mindless selling in the smaller ones will soon end and these companies will rise much more sharply than the rest. We are in a once-in-history market here. The sequence of the moves from largest to smaller and then to the more speculative ones is to be expected. The little ones are very small and illiquid especially in the up move just ahead. Hang on for the ride.
Chuck

Big news from ECU silver:

Press Release Source: ECU Silver Mining Inc.

ECU Silver Mining Inc.: Press Release
Thursday March 10, 5:01 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/05031…86af7d5faf7cd43038_1.html

***

The dollar fell after gold closed when the budget deficit was announced. Yet, instead of gold following the euro up, The Gold Cartel knocked gold down 30 cents at the opening of ACCESS trading, AS USUAL.

Yesterday the gold shares sold off in anticipation of last evening’s orchestrated gold takedown and today’s blatant price-capping. Obviously the word is out among the bullion banks in the cabal that headquarters has forbidden gold to go higher from here. Thus, the Goldmans and JP Morgans are lining up to steal your money again in the gold pits and by dumping the shares.

The XAU lost 1.04 to 101.79 and the HUI gave up 2.06 to 222.06. At least it held 220 support after sinking to 219.89.

For years when the shares of acted strangely like this, The Gold Cartel has attacked fiercely. We need some help tomorrow to knock them on their butt. As is, the reasons for gold to move higher don’t get much better.

Regardless of the egregious activity of The Gold Cartel, the big picture for gold and silver investors brightens almost on a daily basis. It should be clear by now to all that gold is undervalued by more than $200 per ounce. Gold is going to make up the amount it is superficially undervalued and more, sure as shootin’. It is only a matter of time before the lowlifes run out of enough central bank gold to continue their fraud. That TIME should not be too far off. Fortunes will be made by our camp and The GATA ARMY. Hang in there.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS