Ich hoffe die ersticken an diesen derivatives,um so frueher, desto besser ! Ich warte schon seit 8 Jahren darauf, aber die haben noch luft und mehr waffen zur reserve. Unterstuetzt werden sie von Snow und Greenspan,die haben eine super dollar druckmaschine und die medien zur hand die jeden weiss machen kann das alles ok ist.
Thanks, for the charts 
XEX
Forecast: The Next Ten Years
by John Mauldin
April 16, 2005
European Uncertainty
Sinking Globalization
Smoot-Hawley is Alive in the Senate
Stratfor Decade Forecast
The China Meltdown Syndrome
The Russian Orthodox Church Leads the Way
The Collapse of the European Political Union
La Jolla and Houston
This week we look at how politics and geopolitical events can affect our investments. We look at a decade-long forecast from one of my favorite information services: Stratfor.com. I change my view on the euro, talk about a possible Chinese recession and look at uncomfortable analogies between 1900 and today. There's a lot of ground to cover so we will jump right in.
I have had the relative value of currencies on my mind every day for the past two weeks. I have been in London, where the pound sterling is at a staggeringly high level, almost two dollars to the pound. Prices in London have always been high, even when the dollar was at its peak. Now they border on the absurd, at least to someone used to the economical confines of Texas. Admittedly I was in a high rent district (Mayfair), but a simple round-trip subway ride was $8. From my viewpoint, it seemed that the price of everything was almost double and sometimes triple what it is for me locally in Texas. There are no cheap drunks in London. Expensive drunks, maybe, but no cheap ones (and no decent steaks).
London is a very civilized place, and quite fun to visit. I enjoyed meeting with clients and business associates, but it was hard to get used to the prices. And the sad thing is that it is likely to get worse over time before it gets better.
While I was there, I watched the polls from France. Last fall, it looks like 70% of the French voters would approve the new to European constitution. If the vote were held today it would fail, and the polls continue to get worse. This has the elite of Europe in quite an uproar. It also looks like the Netherlands could vote no even before the British get a chance to object.
European voters are being asked to accept an 800 page constitution that almost no one has read and which would create a powerful new bureaucracy in Brussels, as if Europe doesn't have enough bureaucracy as it is. The left in France is worried that the welfare state could be changed and the right is worried that even more regulations and nonsense could come down from Brussels. There are both right to worry.
Will a "no" vote be the end of the European Monetary Union? No. Will the euro go away? No. Will it to force the Euro-politicians to become more realistic about the pressures facing Europe, especially demographic and economic issues? Yes.
But it will also create a great deal of uncertainty. And the one thing we know about uncertainty is that the markets don't like it. I have been bullish on the euro for over three years, almost from its bottom. In the medium-term (five years) I am still bullish. But right now, I am simply nervous. I think I want to find other ways to bet against a falling US dollar. Looking around the world my eyes rest on Asia as the next region to see its currency's rise against the dollar. I would expect the euro to rise as well, but now there is a cloud of uncertainty, so I suggest we sit on the sidelines until we can be more confident about the euro.
For several years, I have been recommending that investors who want to play the currency can do so by investing in FDIC insured accounts and CDs at Everbank. You can purchase a CD in almost any currency you can think of it. I know that many of you have bought euro-denominated CDs. What I would suggest you do, is that when the maturity on your CDs come up, that you roll it over into their new Asian Tiger Index CD. This is what my good friend Chuck Butler recently wrote:
"I am very happy to announce that Everbank World Markets is now offering a new 'Asian Tiger Index CD'... We're going to originate a CD that will be made up of the currencies from Japan, Thailand, Singapore, and New Zealand. Ok, we don't need a geography lesson... We have added New Zealand, because it is 'Pan-Asian,' it exports mainly go to Asian countries, and it pays the interest! If you're interested, call the desk (1-800-926-4922) for the details... The interest rate will be 2% for both a 3 and 6 month CD... I've done this because I continue to believe the next big leg down in the dollar will have to come from the Asian currencies that, to date, have not participated, in a big way, in the dollar's weakness... And where are the majority of our IOU's held? Asia... So... If the global imbalances created by the dollar and these weak Asian currencies are going to receive any correcting, the Asian currencies must rally VS the dollar." Ask for Chuck and tell him I sent you. (I should note that Everbank is a sponsor of my publisher.)
Sinking Globalization
Niall Ferguson is Professor of History at Harvard University. He recently authored an essay which appeared in Foreign Affairs (Volume 84, No. 2) entitled "Sinking Globalization." (There is no free link but you can subscribe if you like at http://www.foreignaffairs.org/.) I would like to recommend this essay to you, and quote a few paragraphs as a way to introduce today's main topic:
"From around 1870 until World War I, the world economy thrived in ways that look familiar today. The mobility of commodities, capital, and labor reached record levels; the sea lanes and telegraphs across the Atlantic had never been busier, as capital and migrants traveled west and raw materials and manufactures traveled east. In relation to output, exports of both merchandise and capital reached volumes not seen again until the 1980s. Total immigration from Europe between 1880 and 1910 was in excess of 25 million. People spoke euphorically of 'the annihilation of distance.'"
Then came World War I, eventually the Great Depression and an even larger WWII. Dr. Ferguson compares the last great period of globalization with today and wonders if we are being complacent.
"The last age of globalization resembled the current one in numerous ways. It was characterized by relatively free trade, limited restrictions on migration, and hardly any regulation of capital flows. Inflation was low. A wave of technological innovation was revolutionizing the communications and energy sectors; the world first discovered the joys of the telephone, the radio, the internal combustion engine, and paved roads. The US economy was the biggest of the world, and the development of its massive internal market had become the principal source of business innovation. China was opening up, raising all kinds of expectations in the West, and Russia was growing rapidly.
"... the end of globalization after 1914 was not unforeseeable. There was no shortage of voices prophesying Armageddon into prewar decades. Many popular writers earned a living by predicting a cataclysmic European war... Yet most investors were completely caught off guard when the crisis came. Not until the last week of July 1914 was there a desperate dash for liquidity; it happened so suddenly and on such a large-scale that the world's major stock markets, New York's included, closed down for the rest of the year."
There were five factors which helped precipitate the global explosion of World War I. The British Empire was over-extended; there was a significant rivalry between the great powers; unstable alliances (think NATO, he says); a rogue regime sponsoring terror; and, "the rise of the revolutionary terrorist organization hostile to capitalism turned an international crisis into a backlash against the global free-market."
Ferguson notes the parallels between the former period and today. I can think of a number of significant differences. For one, there are no nations with the military power to rival the United States, and there will not be for a long time. The rise of free markets and free people is a calming factor. That does not mean the world is without problems. We all know, as Ferguson points out, that a nuclear device planted by Al Qaeda in London or civil war in Saudi Arabia would disrupt the world order significantly. We could spend the next three or four pages listing possible doomsday scenarios, however unlikely.
However, it is not Al Qaeda, Saudi coups, the US trade deficit or a crisis over Taiwan that worries me. I am far more concerned about politicians creating an economic trade war which would destabilize the global economy. For new readers, my long-term view is that we are in what I call the Muddle Through Decade. I expect a series of recessions over the next ten years to provide the impetus to deal with the US trade deficit, consumer debt levels and rebalance global trade into a more sustainable model. It will also be a period of slower than usual growth, thus "Muddle Through."
This is not gloom and doom. It is a simple recognition that the current trends cannot continue and we will have to get back to a more stable economic situation. In the past it always required multiple recessions to be the motivating factor for people to get their house in order. I see no reason why that should change in the future. Most of us with a few gray hairs have lived through numerous recessions and while it may have forced a few uncomfortable changes, our generations are no worse for the wear.
The one thing which could derail my rather benign scenario is a trade war. A real trade war, in my opinion, would lead us to a global depression which would take us decades from which to recover. Sadly there are significant forces in both the United States and Europe which would like to see a rise of protectionism, tariffs and trade wars. These politicians pander to voters who would like to see the status quo maintained. "Protect my job, welfare, benefits and lifestyle," they cry.
However, one of the things that we can confidently predict in a world of accelerating change is that the status quo will not be maintained. The status quo will be increasingly under assault from all directions, not the least of which is the demographic imperatives of an aging developed world. The developed world (the US, but especially Europe and Japan) simply cannot afford to maintain their welfare states over the coming decades. Yet that is precisely what the voters will ask them to do.
Politicians will never admit that the problem is with the systems they have created and which are essentially bankrupt. The voters don't want to hear that their benefits are at risk. They will blame others and pursue policies which will have negative economic consequences. This will of course make the situation worse, but it will be too late.
Smoot-Hawley is Alive in the Senate
Such a scenario does not have to happen. Calmer, wiser heads should prevail, as most sane people realize that a trade war would devastate the world. Yet there are times I get nervous and last week provided just one of those examples.
Senator Charles "Smoot-Hawley" Schumer of New York is sponsoring a bill which would slap across-the-board tariffs on imports of Chinese goods unless China agrees to revalue its currency. The Senate failed to kill the legislation last Wednesday on a vote of 67-33. Never mind that such legislation would be a huge tax on the American consumer, would signal to the world that free trade is no longer the policy of the United States, and would have an almost immediate affect of raising interest rates, causing a drop in housing values and a recession. By the latter, I mean that if the Chinese were not buying our US debt interest rates would rise.
Pardon me a moment of cynicism, but I don't think there are 67 senators who are that economically illiterate (perhaps 40 or so, with Schumer being chief among them!). What I do think is that they see this as a free opportunity to pander to the voters in their states. They know that the President Bush would veto such a bill so they vote for the bill with the comforting knowledge that they will never have to deal with the consequences. They get to have their cake and get to eat it too.
We see the same sentiments echoed in Europe. In next Monday's Outside the Box we will read an essay from those very smart guys at GaveKal Research discussing the dismantling of the European Growth and Stability Pact last week. They note "In Brussels, we saw a French president [Chirac] give echo to the more protectionist thesis of the greens, the reds and other fruitcakes. We saw a French president blame Europe for 'dumping social, dumping fiscal, dumping ecologique'."
Stratfor Decade Forecast
Everyday I eagerly read an e-mail from Stratfor.com. Stratfor is described by Barron's as "a private quasi-CIA [which] has enjoyed an increasing vogue in recent years as a result of its heady forecast and many news breaks. It is a private intelligence and security consulting organization based in Austin, Texas with a global network of intelligence sources. They provide corporations, governments, financial institutions and individuals with geopolitical analyses and forecasts that assist them in managing risk and helping them to anticipate political economic and security issues vital to their interest. George Friedman runs the firm, and I consider his essays on the world political situation to be some of the more insightful I read anywhere. He is one smart gentleman.
While their services can be quite expensive, their daily e-mail is somewhat more affordable. I consider it a must-read. Every five years they produce a 10-year geopolitical forecast. In 1995 they predicted the meltdown of Asia, which happened in a 1997. They have been consistently right in their analysis of Russia and Europe. I could go on for pages about all the correct calls they have made, (along with a few misses, of course), but let's go ahead and look at a partial summary of what they predict for the next 10 years. The entire report is 45 pages, but we will cut it down to the main points in the next few pages. Quoting from their introduction:
"A decade forecast is the longest we attempt at this time, because anything greater than a 10-year forecast encounters history's tendency to have wild discontinuities. Even a 10-year forecast has discontinuities built in. A 10-year forecast in 1980 would have had to forecast the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe. A forecast in 1910 would have contained World War I.
"The art and science of forecasting requires that you recognize that the least likely outcome is simple extrapolation. You can draw straight lines for a year, but drawing them out for 10 years is dangerous. A decade forecast, therefore, is about predicting the unexpected. [emphasis mine] But it is precisely the wildly unanticipated that a decade of history throws up at you. Predicting in 1995 that the United States would invade Afghanistan in 2001 would have been enormously difficult. It would have been far easier to draw a straight line showing that the post-Cold War interregnum would be eternal.
"It follows from this that expecting the U.S.-jihadist war to continue to dominate the world in 2015 - 14 years after the war started - is fairly unrealistic. If the Islamic world remains the focus of the international system, it will be on very different terms than today. In fact, it is our view that the jihadist issue will not go away, but will subside over the next decade. Other - currently barely visible - issues are likely to dominate the international scene."
I should note that their forecast, while having some disconcerting elements, is nowhere near as pessimistic as the Ferguson essay mentioned above. Indeed, compared to that essay, it is quite reassuring. And they are at their most (relatively speaking) optimistic when looking at the United States.
They see the focus of the US going from the Middle East to East Asia. They expect the US to disengage from Iraq and the Middle East in general, as we essentially minimize the risk from the jihadist movement by the end of the period. Interestingly, they expect a decline in US foreign involvement in the years around 2010, followed by increased involvement in Asia. They see increasing coalitions uniting in an effort to resist American power, primarily in East Asia, which will require our attention
In summary on the economy: "It is our expectation, based on our Asian forecast, that pressure on the trade deficit will subside before the end of the decade. At the same time we continue to forecast productivity growths and smoothed demographic curves throughout this period. We expect two or more recessions during the coming decade - at least one of which will be triggered indirectly by Chinese problems. When China's own version of the Asian model falters, China's export sector will cease its current red-hot growth. This will gut Chinese exports to the United States, thereby removing China's need to heavily invest in American government debt.
"For the past two years, China has not only been a leading source of U.S. trade deficit, it also has been a leading purchaser of U.S. government debt to finance that deficit. The Chinese crunch and step-back from U.S. debt purchases will cause the U.S. dollar to plummet on international markets, most likely triggering a recession until the U.S. economy's inherent efficiencies allow it to regain its strength. We do not expect to see a return to 1990s growth rates. At the same time, we regard the American economy very positively indeed."
Maybe I like this because it sounds almost exactly like my Muddle Through scenario, but I think there is much to commend this.
[
The Global Economy
Moving onto the global economy, they spend several pages noting the demographic problems of both Europe and Japan. Long-time readers know that I repeatedly refer to these problems, so I'll not go into detail here. But their conclusion bears noting:
"At the end of the day, the United States is set for a decade of high investment, and by extension, high productivity growth. Europe and Japan simply cannot replicate these developments - even if they were willing to restructure their economies from the ground up. Building such an environment requires a generational effort, not one that can be implemented in a "mere" decade. The replicability of economically healthy demographics in the United States does not mean it consistently will be the state of affairs.
"As workers retire, income shrivels and the torrent of money reverses. Instead of being large-scale net suppliers of investment capital, former workers become hoarders and spenders. The bulk of their financial assets are switched from high-growth stocks into low- to no-growth bonds and even cash so they cannot lose their shirts in the stock market crash of the moment. In short, aside from their spending - which usually decreases after retirement - retirees cease to participate in the national economy and capital formation. At that point, investment slows, credit becomes far more expensive and growth falls off.
"A reduced supply of capital means two things. First, the cost of doing any sort of financing - anything from getting a car loan to building a skyscraper - will increase, setting the stage for lessened consumption and, by extension, slower growth across all sectors of all economies. Second, less supply always increases volatility. Crunches are next to impossible in well- or over-supplied markets; lower supply means the swings from economic booms to busts will be far more rapid and far more disruptive overall.
"For the United States, the above description will manifest itself sometime around 2015, as the bulk of the U.S. baby boomers pass into retirement. For Japan, it begins here and now."
The China Meltdown Syndrome
Stratfor's most dramatic prediction is a meltdown in China. Essentially they see the current euphoria over China as a focus on Shanghai and the growth in the coastal areas and ignoring the problems deep within China. The staggering proportion of bad debt, enormous even in relation to official dollar reserves, represents a defining crisis for China. While they expect China to hold together through the 2008 Olympics, for a variety of reasons they see power devolving to the various states and region of China and away from Beijing. They predict massive social upheavals because of the difference between rich and poor, especially the relatively rich coastal areas which last year received a 87% of foreign direct investment as opposed only 3% given to the inner provinces, yet 25% of the people live in those inner provinces.
They do not see China going away, of course, but they do see Japan replacing her as the premier power in East Asia, with Taiwan aligning itself with Japan. Within the next few months, I will do another specially letter on China and will go into their concerns more carefully. Hopefully I will get some face time with George Friedman and ask him a question or two which will give us some insights.
The Russian Orthodox Church Leads the Way
Their view of Russia is just as disconcerting. They say Russia is collapsing and expect that to continue, but this will create an increasingly nationalist and anti-Western movement in Russia. They expect Russia to eventually reassert itself as a major international player with the traditional anti-Western course. They also believe that Russia may try to reintegrate part of its old union, perhaps forcibly.
And they provide this rather startling prediction: "On the whole, we expect a fundamental Russian crisis and prolonged fighting in various forms - including military conflict at times. A number of scenarios could play out, but in the end, Russia will become the nationalist, statist entity it was before the last 20 years of openness and marketization.
The question now is what the reversal will look like. The Communist Party is likely finished in Russia; it will not be the driving force. A new, anti-Western leading force will emerge from street protests and popular anger. Moreover, a completely new elite will probably form from this period of turmoil. The new elite will consist of national capital representatives, mostly from the production economic sector; patriotic intellectuals; officers in the military, security and intelligence; and popular resistance leaders.
"By 2015, the regime will probably be religion-oriented, with the Russian Orthodox Church taking a leading role, joined by moderates from other large religious traditions in Russia, such as Islam and Buddhism. A new regime will have to draw upon one resource or another for its strength; traditionally, Russian morality and human capability have been vital to the country's success. With the communist ideology in crisis and the market ideology inspiring relatively few Russians, moral strength can be drawn from revived religious values that argue for a strong Russia and a just society. Also, it will probably be a very conservative regime, resting on the foundation of a production economy, with low-paid workers, intellectuals and peasants as well as those dependent on social benefits."
Moving on to the Middle East, as noted above, they believe the US-jihadist war will end in the favor of the United States, and that US involvement will shift from military to political with the odd base left over here and there. They also see major leadership transitions in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
"As the U.S.-jihadist war winds down, an intra-Islamic struggle in the Muslim world will begin to take shape. This conflict will pit Islamists against non-Islamists and will alter the nature of U.S. involvement in Muslim states from military action to political engagement, where Washington will - on a case-by case basis - negotiate with Islamist forces. This trend already is under way - most visibly in Iraq, where Washington has been working with the country's Islamist-leaning Shia first to oust Saddam Hussein's regime and then to effect a political reconstruction of the country - obviously in keeping with U.S. geostrategic objectives in the region.
"...The last four years also has led to the Muslim world's significant radicalization along religious lines. This has boosted several radical (non-militant) Islamist groups, which have been able to leverage societies' religious currents to advance themselves. Though they have remained secure from much of the destruction that has befallen their militant counterparts, the radicals - given their dogmatic predisposition - are unable to provide the masses with more than an outlet for protest.
"Here is where moderate Islamist groups increasingly will come into play, providing an expression for socioeconomic frustrations and a forum for identity politics. Moderate Islamist groups will make significant political gains in many Middle Eastern and Muslim states in the coming decade, as the establishments buckle under pressure from calls for change from within and without. That said, there are other non-Islamist political forces that will compete with the rise of moderate Islamists.
"This will bring about a struggle over the question of moderate Islam. Since the Sept. 11 attacks, there has been an upsurge in the global discourse involving moderate Muslims and moderate Islam. This issue is complicated not only by the U.S.-led West's attempts to seek out the moderates in the Islamic world but also by the diverse set of groups in Muslim states who claim to be the upholders of moderate Islam. What is curious in all of this is not the Western demand for moderation but the ample Muslim supply of moderation.
"There are at least four different types of Muslims who advance themselves as the adherents of moderate Islam. They are moderate Islamists, traditional Muslims, liberal Muslims and certain moderate Islamic regimes. An intense struggle will take place over ownership of moderate and authentic Islam in the course of the next decade."
The Collapse of the European Political Union
As relatively optimistic (if you can call predicting two recessions and a collapsing dollar optimistic) as Stratfor is on the US, they are not as sanguine on the prospects for Europe. They predict the political union will collapse, but the economic union will continue. Much of the economy of Europe will remain stagnant under heavy social costs and a rapidly aging demographic. They predict increased tensions over Muslim immigration with the potential for some states to limit immigration.
On the political front, they believe there is the potential for conflict with Russia as Russia tries to reassert its authority and direct control over some of the former Soviet states in the Baltics, Georgia and Ukraine. This will present a problem to Europe, as they will have essentially no way to counter Russian power.
"The European Monetary Union (EMU), unlike the political union, will not fall apart in the coming decade. At present, there are more countries trying to join the EMU than are trying to leave it. Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia will likely join in 2007, followed in 2009 by Latvia and Cyprus. Similar to the political union, the demise of the eurozone requires the departure of one major country - Germany. But Berlin, as the EU's largest economy, has more to gain from being in the eurozone than not being in the eurozone, simply because Germany is the undisputed leader and exemplar of the European economy."
"...Exogenous shifts make a European common position - on anything - much harder to achieve. A resurgent Russia forces Europe to choose what it hates more: U.S. troops on the ground, the costs of rearmament or Moscow calling the shots. Some countries would not mind U.S. troops, but for others, that would represent the complete destruction of national sovereignty. Islamist militant attacks force the Europeans to take action against immigration - but some states need Muslim immigrants to make up for declining populations. These difficulties add to the probability that the political union of the EU will break apart in the next decade."
It is best to stop here, as the letter is already getting long. If you are interested in getting the report and subscribing to Stratfor's basic service, you can go to http://www.stratfor.com/offers/050411-bmg/?ref=bmg001. For those who need to be in the know about what is going on in the world, and need a high level resource, I know of none better.
La Jolla and Houston
I am obviously back in Texas. It feels like summer, as they are playing baseball outside my office. The Texas Rangers are beating the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 in the sixth, but there is still time for our pitching to collapse (sigh). The crowd is sparse, but it will pick up as the season moves along.
I fly to La Jolla to meet with clients and my partners at Altegris Investments next week, and then on to Houston the week after. With the exception of one weekend, I am home for the month of May, which after all the travel this month, I need a month to catch up.
I got to have dinner with good friend Bill Bonner last night in London. I gave him a copy of a book I was reading called "Younger Next Year." I highly recommend the book for every man over 45. There's not much (actually none) investment advice in the book, but there is a lot about how to stay healthy. The book also emphasizes the importance to your health of having good friends. While I'm working on the exercise part, I have the friendship part down. Based on the quality of my friends I should live to be a hundred. I told Bill to read the book and follow it so that we could both be a hundred together.
So here's to staying healthy as we go through the next 10 (and more) years. I plan to still be here writing and I hope you will still be here reading. Have a great weekend.
You're always and ever the optimist analyst,
Le Metropole Members,
G7 Fails to Reach Deal on Debt Relief
By Sumeet Desai -April 16
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Group of Seven economic powers
on Saturday failed once again to agree on how to free Africa from debt and poverty.
Aid agencies had wanted the rich countries to make good on
their pledge to help rid the world's poorest countries of
their crippling debt but ministers once again could not
decide on the best way to pay for this.
Their final statement after a Saturday meeting went no
further than thanking the International Monetary Fund for
a study on how its gold reserves could be used to help fund
100 percent debt relief and promising more discussion.
"There was complete silence from the G7 on the sale of IMF gold. 
Yet the IMF has clearly said the gold ""can be sold""
to help cancel poor countries' debt," said Jonathan Hepburn, policy adviser for Oxfam International.
"How many children have to die before these seven men in
suits develop a sense of urgency?"
In a report prepared for the G7 meeting in Washington, the
IMF said an overall sale of about 13 to 16 million ounces
of its 103.4 million ounces of bullion could be handled by
the market without significant difficulty...........(Asia is waiting for it)
YEAR OF AFRICA
Britain, the current holder of the G7 presidency, has
declared 2005 a make-or-break year for Africa and says
there is no chance of meeting a United Nations goal of
halving world poverty by 2015 without stumping up money
now.
Its finance minister Gordon Brown 
broke off from election campaigning at home to press his G7 colleagues to back
his gold sales plan.
But the United States is opposed.
Snow told the IMF policy committee on Saturday selling
gold stocks to pay for debt relief was the wrong approach.
"So whatever the merit of the argument might be, it's not
going to pass," Canadian Finance Minister Ralph Goodale told Reuters in an interview on Friday.
Nor does President Bush's administration back Brown's
other idea -- an International Finance Facility (IFF)
that would double cash for developing countries by
issuing bonds against rich countries' future aid budgets.
The G7 statement simply said ministers had discussed a
pilot of the scheme currently being run to raise money
for immunization of African children. 
France's proposal to levy a small tax on airline tickets,
say around one euro or one dollar per ticket, to pay for
aid, also failed to win support.
Ahead of the meeting, British Treasury officials played
down hopes of a deal but are conscious time is running
out before G8 leaders' summit in Gleneagles, Scotland,
in July.
"The politicians are cutting it very fine. 2005
Hot Inflation Meteorites
Big Picture As our cartoonist shows, below, planet earth is about to be bombarded by hot inflation meteorites. It's coming as a surprise/shock to mkts (especially bonds). But page 1 HSL cartoon on May 9, 2004, showed inflation was quietly launched in 2004 (unseen by outmoded & govt "adjusted" indices, like the CPI's in various nations). We forecast it would evolve into high-pitched inflation in 2005-06. Then, move into stagflation in perhaps 2006-7, then into recession -- perhaps in 2008-09. Precise dating isn't possible, but this is a long-range guided Biggy Big Picture as I see it. And the heating-up inflation stage is now becoming apparent in the US, UK, China, Oz, NZ & a few other places. It'll be broader & more extreme as we move into Q2.
Herr Meier der auch angibt er ist gleichzeitig Nahost und Militaerexperte glaubt mit seinem Expertenwissen folgendes:
http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…/artikel.php?storyid=1041
Die Antwort hier im forum ist aber :
http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/thread.php?threadid=1664&sid=
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Mike Hartman's new essay, "The Stakes Are Very
High," concludes that government intervention in
the markets is now pervasive and obvious. GATA
Chairman Bill Murphy's commentary at
LeMetropoleCafe.com is quoted. You can find
Hartman's essay at Gold-Eagle.com here:
Precious Metals Bulls, take heart, paper shares are merely a trade, a hedge in the Short to intermediate Term, before uncertainty unfolds.
This is precisely why; we have remained congruent with respect to GOLD and SILVER: "Own the Metals first." Nothing suits Precious Metals more than uncertainty. CONfidence lost is certainty gained; five thousand years of History remain entirely congruent in this simple exercise. GOLD and SILVER are money, they are sound, honest and remain Debt free.
The paper shares, at some point in the not too distant future will go up in flames as well; they are merely a leveraged play in the Metals. The opportunity to position in the shares after we complete this most recent, forced trend reversal will provide an enormous potential for Capital Gains.
This most recent attack was perfectly orchestrated. Those who recognized the assault in advance moved aside and now have the ability to repurchase shares at much lower price levels, thereby gaining in terms of both positions for entry as well as being able to purchase more shares.
We trade for position, and seek to make the greatest returns when we Buy and collect when we Sell.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey041705.html
Another article:
If you follow the myriad of "Gurus" all professing to have some magic "voodoo" which allows them to predict price and time movements, you will soon realize that following the crowd is a real good and real fast way to lose money. If "gurus" were worth a damn, they would give their service away, they wouldn't need to charge for it. But it's in the nature of man to want to follow the crowd and to listen to those who preach what they want to hear. That's why the scalliwags will always be present in the financial arena and always do quite well for themselves.
Commodities in general have been correcting and have a lot further to go. This includes oil as well as base metals. Moly is down from $35.50 to $32.45, oil from about $58 to $52 and I expect them to continue to correct. This does not mean it's a good time to sell, on the contrary, it's a good time to buy. Jim Rogers makes the most valid of points about where we stand in a commodities bull market. He points out that there are 40,000 stock mutual funds and 6 commodity funds. That's not a top. That's actually pretty close to a bottom, it doesn't get much worse.
Baby Bush and the Beltway Bandits continue to rape American taxpayers as they press on with their cornucopia of corruption and deceit. Congress abdicated their role as the institution responsible for declaring war when they passed a resolution allowing Baby Bush to invade Iraq pending two conditions, (1) Certification that Iraq possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction and (2) Certification that Iraq was connected to 9/11.
Neither was true which makes the invasion illegal even according to US law, which Attorney General Gonzales considers quaint. Wars are easy to start and nearly impossible to end. You can no more win a war than you can win a case of the clap, everyone loses in a war. And they are expensive. Without doubt, when the reckoning is made, the Iraq invasion will prove to be the straw that broke the back of the dollar. The only real issue is if our Republic ends with a whimper or a bang.
After some 150,000 Iraqi deaths and 1600 American lives thrown away, Bush and crew seem tempted to try it again since they did such a wonderful job in Iraq. Our new target is Iran which Bush believes is on the verge of gaining nuclear weapons even though he can't figure out Israel posses a far great arsenal of WMD. If we attack Iran it will be obvious in the first week that we have bitten off far more than we can chew. For the first time since I have been alive, I firmly believe we are on the verge of a global nuclear war which we will lose. You can forget an Israeli attack in Iran, their aircraft lack the range and Israel has no friends anywhere in the region. If there is an attack on Iran, it will come from us and a short time later oil will be $100 a barrel. You won't be able to give dollars away.
There are some really valid reasons to invest in gold and precious metals, both in the physical and the shares. The dollar may be in a short term correction higher but like a row boat 500 meters upstream from Niagara Falls, the future is predictable and it's not a pretty picture. The dollar and our republic are toast. We are in a slow motion crash but make no mistake, Rome burns as Nero fiddles.
I wrote a piece in January, suggesting we were at a bottom. I was about half right. Silver hit the basement in January but gold and precious metals shares continued down until a temporary bottom in February. We have tested that bottom with a slightly lower XAU and HUI. Both of them seem to be discounting $350 gold which isn't in the cards. We had a hard crash in the metals shares on Friday and that's a good time to be buying. We have been in a 17 month correction since the beginning of December of 2003 and that's long enough for me. I believe if you invest now you will be soon rewarded.
The easiest money to be made investing in metals shares is to buy just before a mine goes into production. It's the most predictable move in mining. I mentioned Desert Sun (DSM-T $1.66) and Endeavour Silver (EDR-V $2.13) in January and both of them had nice (and predictable) moves higher. But the stock which is just screaming BUY-ME, BUY-ME has to be Excellon. (EXN-V $.20 Canadian 150 million shares fully diluted)
Taylor On US$ & Gold
Richard Richard talked once again about deflation and the dollar short thesis; I believe the person who recently began circulating this thesis was Bob Hoye, who we interviewed a couple of months back. As Bob notes, the senior currency has always tended to be the strongest currency in major post-bubble eras in the past. In any event, Russell pointed to the stronger dollar, still very low U.S. interest rates, the stock market decline, and declining commodity prices as all suggestive that we could be heading toward deflation.
I could not agree with him more. The equity markets are looking forward and they do not like what they are seeing. What do they see? We won't know until later, but I think it is entirely possible they are getting a preview of the second Great Depression within 100 yeas as we have been suggesting was coming our way. The signs Richard Russell has oft stated are certainly not suggestive of the kind of healthy and growing economy talking head after talking head is suggesting on CNBC.
Friday we saw more strengthening of the dollar and the long bond. As can be seen from the chart above, the dollar has actually now broken above its downtrend line that began in 2002 albeit not as yet in a convincing manner. Consistent with recent "strength" of the dollar has been a recent strengthening of long U.S. Treasury instruments. Note the sharp rise in our the 20-year to 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds which are contained within the Lehman iShares that trade under the symbol TLT. The rally in the ETF has allows us to narrow our loss in this Model Portfolio selection from just under 4% last week to 1.7% this week.
Gold Shares Remain Dreadful Performers, But That Should Soon Change
Gold shares are still acting dreadful. As can be seen on the chart on the left, both the GoldColony.com Index and J Taylor's Gold Stocks have hit new lows since about September 2003. I think Richard Russell is probably right in suggesting gold investments will initially be adversely affected when deflation gets the upper hand in the economy because people will first scramble for dollar liquidity before trying to hang on to their gold stocks.
The washout in the small cap gold stocks may be especially pronounced. But quite frankly, they are so cheap now, compared to what many of these companies have going for by way of the metal values they already have in the ground or are in the process of outlining. A couple of examples are once again mentioned in this weekly letter. But I truly believe this current period of weakness will most likely be seen as a golden buying opportunity for junior gold stocks. The succession should be as follows: 1) Investors scramble for cash by selling stocks, art objects, second homes and virtually everything they don't have to have to stay alive. They do this so they can remain financially solvent and hang on to the things they have to have. 2). Financial institutions begin to default, thus causing a lack of confidence in retaining fiat money in banks and other institutions. That leads people to seek the ultimate safety in money, which is beyond any doubt, gold. It is safe because unlike fiat money, it is an asset money, not a liability money as is the dollar. 3) As citizens and investors move from fit to gold, the real price of gold begins to rise dramatically. (Think Dow/Gold at a 1:1 ratio). As gold rises, the scramble for "money in the ground" will be increasingly more intense. In the gold shares, the initial move will be to the major mining firms and then down the food chain. Ultimately, the frenzy into this sector is likely to be so great that companies merely with the name "Gold" in them will likely rise significantly in value, though nominal values for these shares may be much more temperate than was true during the inflationary Internet mania. However, what we need to keep in mind during the deflationary era are "real" prices for gold and gold shares. With prices of virtually everything dropping, nominal values become of a secondary importance to purchasing power.
Major Gold Stocks Remain Weak
The chart of the XAU on your left demonstrates the weakness in the gold share markets last week. However, note the bull market remains very much in tact though the higher trend line displayed was violated on Friday. I would be concerned if the lower trend line were violated, but at least for now it appears quite safe. It is likely in my view that we will look back at this time as an excellent buying opportunity for the gold shares and especially for the juniors.
Aside from Cash, Gold Is Where We Want to Be
Bob Hoye gave an example of how gold tends to perform so well during deflationary periods of time. This is important to note because as I said earlier, most buyers of gold buy the yellow metal as a hedge against inflation when in fact, historically, gold acts best during deflation. Quoting Mr. Hoye from his "Pivotal Events" of this past Thursday:
"As the great financial bubble failed in October 1825, the biggest broker, Poole & Co. in London, was considered too big and important to go under.
"The Bank of England agreed, but the speed of the decline rendered any assistance impossible and the biggest broker in the world's financial capital defaulted. On that bubble collapse, initial pressure didn't clear the market until January 1826.
"The secular contraction, with the usual 3-4 year business cycle prevailing, endured the typical 20-25 years until 1844. On that post-bubble contraction, copper's real price went from 137 to 81 as gold's' real price increased from 107 to 174."
In dem Artikel der Financial Times werden mal nicht Zertikate und andere Derivate empfohlen, auch weniger Goldminenaktien, sondern der physische Goldkauf.
Portfolio: Wachsendes Misstrauen gegen Papiergeld
von Markus Zydra
Vermögensverwalter empfehlen Gold als Absicherung gegen eine höhere Inflation. Gold-Fonds gelten aber auch als volatil und risikoreich, denn bei den Minenkonzernen ist auch nicht alles Gold, was glänzt.
[...] keine Komplettzitate! Gruß HORSTWALTER
Aus der FTD vom 19.04.2005
Als "neuer" User, der aber schon einige Zeit stiller
Mitleser ist, möchte ich mich auch gerne in die Diskussion
ums Gold einklinken.
Der Artikel im letzten posting aus der financial times verblüfft schon etwas, da
die Medien entweder vom Gold abraten oder wenn nicht, dann Derivate, Zertifikate
und ähnlichem "Mist" empfehlen, der immer den Banken, nie dem Goldpreis selber nützt.
Aber hin- und wieder müssen sie auch mal Wahres berichten, bzw. den Lesern Vernüftiges raten,
sonst leidet ihre Glaubwürdigkeit.
Sollte das aber der Auftakt für eine generelle Richtungsänderung der Medien sein,
hin zur allgemeinen Empfehlung der physischen Goldanlage, befürchte ich, das eher
als Kontra-Indikator ansehen zu müssen.
Hoffen wir, dass die Goldpreis-Manipulation sich endlich, endlich abschwächt oder
aufhört, bzw. die langsam am Ende sind.
[Diesbezüglich bin ich aber leider mittlerweile wesentlich skeptischer als noch
vor ca. 2 Jahren, als ich mich doch sehr von der ständigen Euphorie der
(sicher sehr verdienstvollen, aber in dem Punkt leider falsch liegenden ) GATA anstecken
lies].
Gruesse Gold-Löwe
@ gold-loewe
Gut gebruellt am Anfang, herzlich willkommen von meiner seite.
Ich habe auch so angefangen, wie jeder.
Du hast Recht mit GATA aber die wissen auch nicht den genauen zeitpunkt wann das Cartel bzw. PPT in die knie geht.
Die munition die sie haben ist ja ein wahnsinn, selbst 61trillionen USD stoppten den dollar bis jetzt nicht. Der kommt aber als inflation zurueck und backfires eines tages. Das Wort Inflation fehlte die letzten Jahre und das nehmen die medien seit monaten wieder in den mund was wiederum gut fuer gold ist.
Gruss
Eldorado
huhu eldo 
hab ne coole neue brille guck ma
wer is PPT und wer GATA? von beiden noch nie was gehört
danke Eldorado, ja den Zeitpunkt, wann das Cartel bzw. PPT in die knie geht
wissen die und auch sonst kein Unbeteiligter leider, leider nicht. Ich glaube, viele Goldbugs (und mir ging es genauso) unterschätzen einfach die Macht, die die haben.
Ich hoffe nach wie vor (und bin deshalb auch ziemlich stark in Silber und Gold investiert), dass sich die Ungleichgewichte des Finanzsystems in Richtung 'höhere Edelmetall-Preise' entladen. Ich bin mir dessen aber keineswegs mehr sicher und halte es im Nachhinein für einen Fehler von mir, zu einseitig auf diese Option gesetzt zu haben.
Eine Investition in "normale" Rohstoffe, die nicht so sehr im Fokus derartiger Manipulationen stehen (Basismetalle, Öl), und eher dem Angebot-/Nachfrage-Gesetz gehorchen, wäre (vielleicht auch jetzt noch) klüger (gewesen).
Ich meine damit, dass irgendeine Euphorie oder "Gewissheit", dass jetzt endlich "sicher" der Goldpreis explodiert, weil dieses oder jenes Mosaiksteinchen gerade zum grossen Bild dazugekommen ist, (z.B. gerade der geplatze IWF-Gold-Verkauf), einfach fehl am Patze wäre. Die führenden Kreise in den USA werden die Zügel leider nicht so schnell aus den Händen geben.
Gruss Gold-Löwe
Report From the Little People
Brian W Pascal
April 19, 2005
It's great that we have a plethora of seasoned gold and precious metal analysts. I commend them for the thousands of charts they produce that show the Little People where it's at and what's happening in the markets. Many of them sell this information through newsletters or through a variety of tools that help the Little People plot, chart and analyze better. It also appears that these analysts and gurus are the only people making money in gold these days. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Little People are pulling cellophane bags over their heads in an attempt to escape the daily rape and pillage of their souls and bank accounts. It's time to hear from the Little People.
Little People know their place. Little People grease the market wheels. Without the Little People, no market can exist. You would think the gold market would throw them a bone once in a while. Not a chance. It's a 'scorched earth' and 'shock 'n awe' policy they have going. And the program runs daily. No rest. No respite from the plunging gold stocks and a spot price that seems to be forever hanging over the Pits of Zool. Every day, some of the Little People open a vein in front of their computers in quiet desperation. Each downtick is another blow to their dreams of power, fame and glory. This is not good for the Little People or the market.
Some would argue that Little People are ignorant and won't take the time needed to study and analyze the markets. Let me assure you that the Little People pay plenty for Newsletters and Charting Tools. Let me assure you that the Little People are on a dozen different gold forums sifting out information and reading more material than a government Tax Auditor. The Little People can extract moisture from very old roadkill in pursuit of a profit if necessary.
Others would argue that the Little People are too emotional and don't have the stamina and discipline required to become professional traders. Well, the Little People will let you in on a little secret. Picking a junior gold explorer because it has a nice sounding name or picking a junior using your ten thousand dollar charting and analysis program usually provides the same results. Instant poverty. Nobody goes broke faster than the Little People. And talking about stamina, who but the Little people would hang in there for over twenty years clutching their bullion and their worthless gold stocks all the way? Cold, dry professional traders make the Little People very ill.
It's not a good time for the Little People right now. They're bruised from getting squeezed for every nickle and dime they have. They're rung out like wet blankets but still they buy the dips and read the forums and provide the grist for the mill. Despite the pain, the Little People know the Great Gold Spike is coming. They're all sitting in the Gold Patch waiting for it to wash over them like an orgasmic tsunami. Bring it on! .
April 18, 2005
Brian W Pascal
