Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Es wird immer spannender... :))

Haben nun die Goldbugs das grosse Glueck und schwimmen schneller als das Krokodil.?
Springt der Bulle heute auch noch ueber den Wassergraben "470" ???

Vorfreude ist die beste Freude..

Schade, bei der 470 Wand hat sich der Stier die Hoerner angeschlagen und faellt jetzt ins Wasser.

Dann halt beim naechsten Versuch, der Graben von 450 460 und 470 waren zu viel fuer den Bullen,
dafuer haelt sich Silber ganz gut.

Alles deine Schuld Edel Man.
Das haben wir nun davon weil du raus gehts und nicht auf den Bullen aufpasst.

Denk an dein Zitat:
...und darf ruhig so weiter laufen... .

Man muss vorsichtig sein bei GM, da gibt es einige Fallen.

Edel Man, renn jetzt besser, da kommt gleich der HuiiiiiI 160 !

Keine Sorge ?.....

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey092005.html

Am 17.9. hab ich bei den Juniors folgendes geschrieben:
Weil es durch sterling etwas untergegangen ist, hier noch einmal:

"Imho hät es dieses Hoch bei POG ohne Katrina nicht gegeben.
Weil die USA braucht jetzt wieder viele grüne Scheinchen, die sie nur über Anleihen hereinbekommen.
Also wahrscheinlich doch noch ne Zinserhöhung und ein stärkerer Dollar, der ja mit den Zinserhöhungen einhergeht.
Und die Liquididät erhöht sich weiter: UND: was noch erstaunlicher ist, die Risikoprämien sinken, was man ja an den aktienmärkten schön beobachten kann.

Alan Greenspan hat ja eh gesagt: "Was die Leute als Liquididät im Überfluss wahrnehmen, kann aber leicht verschwinden."
Also klarer geht´s ja nicht.

Und weiter hat er gesagt, dass die Vermögenswerte sinken können und die Investoren zwingen könne, Vermögenswerte aufzulösen.

Und wieder Zitat: "Das ist der Grund, warum die Geschichte nie sehr freundlich mit den Folgen langer Phasen niedriger Risikoprämien gewesen ist."

Also das sind für mich klare Warnungen. Eigentlich sowas wie eine Crashankündigung.

Nur durch die Liquididät wird der DOW auch weiter hoch gehalten und womöglich weiter steigen mit einer inneren Aushöhlung der WELTRESERVEWÄHRUNG.

Als Bild kommt mir das so vor, wie wenn ein Steuermann eines Schiffes auf ein Riff zufährt und dann noch auf volle kraft voraus schaltet.

Also ich vermute wieder ein Ereignis von außen, wie schon Katrina eines gewesen ist. Sturm wird´s keiner mehr.
Im übrigen macht Bush Überstunden in Sachen Amtsenthebung.
Der schafft das noch, wenn er so weiter macht.

Der "wind of change", wie Merriman sagt, bläst stärker.
Ich zitier seit Mai immer wieder Dylan: "The times are a´changin"

Bin gespannt, ob die Goldralley weitergeht. Wenn ja, wird die nachfolgende Watschen umso kräftiger.
Und die kommt.
FED und Konsorten haben noch nicht fertig.

Grüße
Tschonko "

PS.: Zinserhöhung hatten wir heute schon und die GM werden auch schon fleißig geprügelt.

Es dauert alles seine Zeit....

September 20 - Gold $466.70 up $7.10 - Silver $7.33 up 12 cents

Gold Move Up Rinky Dink Thus Far

"We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails." - Bertha Calloway

My flight was cancelled due to Hurricane Rita. Still here in South Beach until tomorrow afternoon. The rain and wind were a fury this morning.

Worked on my MIDAS all day, only to have it get erased somehow right after the stock market closed a while ago. Therefore, going to list the points of the day.

*The AM Fix came in at $470, up over $3 from the Comex close. As is so often the case, The Gold Cartel went on the attack going into the Comex open. The bums took gold down over $2 several times, but could not break the market. Locals were forced to cover shorts late.

*MOST EVERYONE is called for gold to correct from here. Never seen such unanimity on a trade. Bodes well for the bulls.

*Gold is only $50 higher than where it was nearly 10 years ago. Big deal. Oil rose 7 times off its low. That would put gold at $1750. Now that would be something to talk about.

*The gold move up thus far is really rinky-dink, compared to what lies ahead. Most of the gold world and Planet Wall Street are clueless because they refuse to deal with the most significant aspect of the gold market: it has been a rigged market for many years and is artificially suppressed by hundreds of dollars per ounce.

*There is a massive short position out there, 12,000 tonnes at a minimum. The Gold Cartel and allies are desperately selling gold to protect that short position. Eventually, it will blow up. Has to. The central banks are running out of available gold to meet the rising demand.

*The gold open interest rose 11,895 contracts to 359,091, indicating how aggressive The Gold Cartel selling is.

*The silver open interest gained 1015 contracts to 117,196.

*A bullish silver development: the Comex reduced spec margins from $2700 per contract to $2025. This gives spec longs more flexibility.

*Copper refuses to go down. It rose more than a penny to $1.66 and change. The September contract still has 4878 contracts open with not that much trading time left. Could be some fireworks here.

Commentary on gold is now center stage. Most of it is inane, or humorous. The CNBC types and Planet Wall Street are going to The Gold Cartel and other bullion dealers who are short for expert commentary. Almost none of these folks have been bullish during the four year bull market move. Since they are short, the last thing they want is for the investment world to really understand what is going on here.

The oohing and aahing we are hearing now is nothing compared to what lies ahead.

The John Brimelow Report

JB Gold Comment: ECB sells again - but are Europeans the buyers?

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.24, PM $2.08, with world gold at $466.20 and $468.50. Adequate, and dubious, for legal imports. After faltering at the start, the rupee firmed up this afternoon. The Bombay Stock Exchange closed up 0.66%, another record high.

Reuters carries the usual story about the scaling back of physical off take. Imports into the most efficient portal for India, Ahmedabad, are said to have slowed to a trickle (but not stopped). Similarly, Singapore premiums are down - but only from 50c to 30c. Further east the bullion market is weaker, but China and Japan are sideshows in the physical gold world.

This morning the ECB was obliged to disclose that "one Eurosystem central bank" sold E57 Mm of gold last week (which works out at 4.9 tonnes). This was claimed to be

"consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 27 September 2004".

How nice to see Central Banks have a sense of humor! Coming after three weeks of no sales, this put the Central Banks about 15 tonnes over the Washington Agreement with two weeks to go. Possibly this was a long-dated call agreement surfacing. Nevertheless, it is strange to see the sale being announced. The ECB’s own large sale in March did not show up in the books until May. Rumor has it that several subordinate banks have recently been active sellers, for post- September delivery/disclosure.At the least this embarressing event suggests sloppy housekeeping by the ECB banks.

On Monday afternoon in NY an immensely determined effort was launched in the last half hour of Comex trading to force the price down. Estimated volume rocketed 63% (33,000 contracts – not so long ago a reasonable daily total); gold fell less than $2. Aggressive selling on ACCESS followed, as did an ominous swoon in the gold shares. Just before TOCOM opened gold was $3 below the NY close.

At that point massive buying pushed gold back up to the NY close, quickly forcing TOCOM up the limit. Only the equivalent of 20,297 Comex lots traded (-53%); open interest slipped the equivalent of 1,347 Comex. (Confusingly, the Mitsubishi data implies a 6.8 tonne increase in the general public long.)

It is not clear this buying was Japanese in origin. The fact that it continued well after Japan closed such that the physical-intensive London AM fix was $470, with gold trading over $469 for more than three hours in the European morning, suggests that it was not.

The facts appear to fit the view expressed by a bullion dealer to Reuters:

""It is not just fund buying from the U.S., which is usually the driver. Now we're getting a lot of investor interest in Europe," said Jeremy East, global head of precious metals at Commerzbank.

That was also backed up by gold trading at record highs in euro terms at 387.

"We're seeing clients here, people who haven't been in the market for quite a while, coming in with quite a large interest to buy gold," East said.

"These are the sort of clients who will stick it away for a few years"."

HSBC makes a worthwhile observation:

"…there are two factors which may imply further upside to gold. The first is that recent trading has seen a number of new entrants to the market, which would imply that the potential maximum net long fund position is higher than in previous rallies. The second is that much of the renewed interest in gold has been through the trading of eurogold in its own right (and with increased market attention and commentary as a result). This might mean that the positions are not as sensitive to moves in the dollar gold price if any moves are offset by currency movements." (JB emphasis.)

It was notable that the late afternoon rally today was more pronounced in eurogold.

The arrival on the buy side of gold of serious European buyers would be important. Recent news events are certainly conducive.

Comex on Monday traded 90,401 lots (with almost no switches); open interest jumped 11,895 lots (37 tonnes) to 359,091 contracts. The all time record was 370,786 on November 22 last year. Since the recent low on August 1, open interest has risen 46.9%, 114,610 lots, or 356.5 tonnes. Gold is up 8.9%. Yesterday’s price move was historically dramatic, but was only 1.5%. The Reuter/Jefferies CRB index was up 3.8%. Clearly, gold is still traveling with malign company.

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold jumped four points on Monday to 82%. The last time this level was seen was not, as one might expect, at the early December ’04 high, but in the previous October when gold broke through the $420s level that marked the top in ’03. Perhaps the futures traders who supply data to this service are more interested in moves through recent technical levels than those in the distant past.

On that basis this move could last several more weeks and go some 6% further: e.g. approach $500.

JB

Und das Spiel beginnt von vorn.

GO GOLD GO !!

Falsches Schuhwerk kann zu unangenehmen Nebenwirkungen im Fersenbereich führen !