Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Edel Man,

danke für den Zuspruch, aber wie schon öfters gesagt, freue ich mich immer über Kaufgelegenheiten. Also von da her kommt mir das ganze sehr gelegen. Ich kaufe aus fundamentalen Gründen, die Charts beobachte ich nur, um die dips zu finden. Bis zum Ausstieg sind es ja noch viele, viele Jahre.

Wollte einfach nur mal erwähnen, daß goldy recht behalten hat.

Viele Grüße

liberty

# UBS. London sieht Ein-Monats-Ziel von $ 440 beim Goldpreis.Wie in den vergangenen Jahren wurde Gold im Okotober bis Mitte aber auch Ende November immer schwächer.Nei 478,50 am 12.10.05 war das vorläufige Hoch beim Gold, Trotzdem könnte Gold vom Dezember bis hin zum Februar 2006 die $ 500 als vorläufiges PZ noch erreichen, bevor von dort aus mit einer mittelfristigen Abwärtsbewegung gerrechnet werden kann.Gut möglich ist aber das vielleicht auch schon das Hoch im Oktober das vorläufige Hoch war.Aber wie immer sieht man das erst später, noch kann gehofft oder gebangt werden.
Man sollte aber trozdem am Goldmakrt eine Devensive Haltung bevorzugen, spätestens ab Februar 2006

gruss hpoth

@ Liberty...Goldy ist ja unser Barometer was er sagt ist oft das ""worst case scenario.""... voruebergehend !

@ HW...verstehe nicht was du meinst, musst mich erstmal reinlesen in den Globex link ob dieser massive ist oder nicht ???? Antwort kommt spaeter,ich bin eigentlich full house mit 158 verschiedenen titel im Depot.

@ alle
Ich bin hoechstzufrieden kein Buchverlust bei den POG heute zum Abschluss.

Es ist nur mehr eine Frage der Zeit dann faellt der Dollar wieder,schaetze Anfang 2006.
Zinserhoehungen am 13 December sind noch moeglich um noch weiter Luft zu schaffen fuer den Fiat Dollar.

Our days will come, don't worry just hang in and think about something else in the meanwhile.

Its weekend, switch off, have a good one, next week is another week which is very important.

Unter 450...... I don't think so, it will reverse soon Amigos.

GO GATA!

This is one of those days when you just throw up your hands and turn off the screen. One of the most negative gold trading sessions on the Comex we have seen of late. It makes no sense, yet it makes all the sense in the world.

No one likes being wrong. My very short-term view on gold has been just that. Gold failed to hold $458 and put in an outside day key reversal to the downside. It traded today like it used to, except worse, having rallied nearly $4 early, as it popped when the currencies rallied on a weak US jobs report. However, what is so irksome is how contrived the sell-off was. As is always the case these days, the AM Fix came in higher than the prior Comex close at $ 461.35. Even the Comex affected PM Fix was higher at $460.50. As soon as the cash market pricing was completed at the PM Fix, The Gold Cartel went into attack mode, taking gold down nearly $6 on the day at one point. The cabal started the onslaught in an effort to induce fund selling, which is just what happened. The Quadriga Fund, which can put on positions of 25,000 contracts, turned a huge seller.

The explanation given for the gold tumble will be attributed to the soaring dollar, which reversed course in violent fashion. Normally that would be fair, except why did the dollar wait to really soar after the PM Fix? It is all too meticulously contrived. The Working Group on Financial Markets knows they cannot hold intermediate/long-term US interest rates down for the moment, so they must take the dollar up to maintain support these rates and for the stock market. Mike Hartman of http://www.financialsense.com mentioned a couple of days ago the shorts (Gold Cartel) would attack bullion on Friday ahead of the coming US Treasury auctions. He was right on the money to the day! Good heads-up and good call.

Another heads-up:

Bill.....FYI....there appears to be a 100% correlation between when Summits occur and the drop in the POG:
G8 Summit June 1-3, 2003
G8 Summit June 8-10, 2003
July 6-8 2005 G8 Summit
Summit of the Americas Nov.4-6, 2005
Oryst

The gold open interest fell 4223 contracts to 326,148, while the silver open interest rose 1214 contracts to 139,085. The divergence in the two continues.

A bright spot was silver, which closed 9 cents off its lows of the day and continues to build strength for a move to much higher levels. Over the past two trading sessions, gold has dropped 6 ½ bucks while silver has remained steady, actually up a cent. The Comex floor wanted it to hold these levels all week and silver did so. Even so, it was disappointing to have silver close 14 cents off its high of the trading session.

What a week for trends:

Bond yields rose for the fourth day in a row
Dec bonds
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C5

The dollar blew through huge resistance at 90.50 to close at 91.16, up .82.
DEC dollar
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/C5

The stock market continued where it left off last Friday.
DEC S&P
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SP/C5

Gold fell nearly $17 for the week, and broke down technically after completing a sizeable top.
DEC gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C5

Gold not a pretty sight.

Based on the COT numbers last Tuesday the large specs cut their longs by 26,255 contracts and shorts by 3,471 contracts. Based on the open interest contraction, it has reduced further as of today.

Crude oil fell $1.20 to $60.58 per barrel. Copper refuses to go down, rising 1.9 cents to $1.8460.

The yield on the 10-year T note rose to 4.66%.

The DEC euro fell 1.22 to 118.48, a new low close for the move, after rising around .6 after the US employment report. Very strange action.

Auf das koennen wir auch noch warten....

Ich habe mir gerade zwei Radio Interviews von Paul van Eeden und Lui Paquette auf Goldradio angehoert. Paul van Eden hat keine Idee wohin der Goldpreis nun geht da die Lager momentan geteilt sind. Er meint das die Goldinvestoren sich seelisch auf einen Preisrueckgang zwischen 430-440 USD einstellen sollte was aber nicht heisst das es nun zutrifft. Lui Paquette sagte das ein guter Support bei 450 liegt und dieser nun ganz wichtig ist. Ueberraschenderweise hat der HUI sich sehr gut gehalten letzte Woche, man sollte die 220 Grenze im Auge halten naechste Woche. Paul van Eeden hat auch Dr. Martin Murenbeeld erwaehnt der meisten bis auf einen Dollar genau den Goldpreis meistens vorrausgesagt hat fuer jedes Jahr. Ich habe hier einen link fuer Euch fuer seine Vorraussage/Analyse fuer 2006. Es ist eine PDF File die ihr erstmal runterladen muesst.

http://www.murenbeeld.com/Down…50927-DenverGoldGroup.pdf

Er glaubt an einen Durchschnitt von ca. 500 Dollar im Vergleich zu 462 von diesen Jahr. Verschiedene Scenarios: 381 -470- 565 USD

Martin Murenbeeld hat auch einen Report von Oktober bezuglich anderen Voraussagen wie USD bis Maerz 2006 welcher ebenso lesenswert ist.
Im Maerz 2006 sollte der USD/IDX wieder auf 83.85 sein und der Dollar/Euro bei 1.275.

http://www.murenbeeld.com/Downloads/0510-EconomicMonitor.pdf

Hier noch der Link fuer die Interviews von Lui und Paul.

http://www.howestreet.com/goldradio/index.php

Mfg

XAX

@ Aladin,

kannst Du nicht noch mehr Bubbles dieser Klasse reinstellen? Wenn`s geht auch noch den südlicheren Teil !!!
Grüße an`s andere Ende der Welt.

INSTERBURG

Edel Man

Kann sein, egal doppelt haelt besser, der Bericht ist ja vom 27 September. Gold auf 565, da sollte man Gewinnmitnahmen machen.
Interessant nun zu vergleichen wie die Vorhersage von Mahendra war bis Freitag letzter Woche.

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEK: 31 OCTOBER TO 4 NOVEMBER

GOLD

Last week gold remained range bound. On Monday this week, it will trade weakly while it should be positive on Tuesday. On the other hand, Wednesday should give way to a mixed trend while falling on Thursday. Friday will once more have a mixed trend.

Overall, planetary movements indicate more negative force and gold will therefore trade in the weak range.

For this week, spot gold will trade in the range of $474.10 to $462.80. I don’t recommend any long position in gold even if a negative situation arises with Syria.
(Es ging sogar auf 456.20)

AVOID TRADING - Tuesday to Friday does not have positive planetary movements and I therefore advise that you remain out of the market. No day trading is recommended as whenever there are negative combinations I try to finish my pending work- I recommend that you likewise do the same. REDUCE POSITION IN ALL AREAS AND WE SHALL START TRADING AGGRESSIVELY FROM NEXT WEEK.

SILVER

This week you should avoid trading silver as I see major volatility on the way and prices may sharply fall on some occasions and strongly rise once again. I don’t see it trading above $7.95 and you should therefore trade accordingly. It may actually fall to $7.52, but if it crosses $7.95 and trades above it for the first three days, then I shall give a new recommendation.

PLATINUM/PALLADIUM/COPPER

From this week, a negative period is starting for platinum, palladium and copper. For the last one month copper has been going down and bouncing back but not crossing $183.80 - that is a negative sign.

TRADE CAREFULLY IN ALL METALS BECAUSE THE CURRENT TIME IS NOT VERY POSITIVE.

TREASURY BOND

This week the bond price should remain positive from Friday. I recommend gradual buying of the thirty year bond.

STOCK MARKET

The stock market remained weak in the previous week and I expect the same from Tuesday this week. The Indian market fell sharply and many other markets did the same. This week European and USA market should remain weak from Tuesday and should touch another quarterly low. Asian market may try to gain but they will also start losing battle against bear from Wednesday.

OIL

Last week recommended it buy for few weeks. I recommend that one avoids trading oil this week as prices will be very volatile. Even if they are stable, avoid trading oil and wait for my recommendation or alert.

CURRENCIES

The Dollar index has been trading range bound. It has been trading at a very important level with the financial community very closely watching all technical support and resistance levels. A big fight is going on and it will be quite interesting to see how the dollar triumphs over other currencies. All currencies will remain very volatile from Tuesday to Thursday and the dollar will finally rise strongly. Wait for next week as I shall also write on the future of the Euro.

This week, the Australian dollar, Rand and other side currencies will move onto a downward trend. One should therefore trade accordingly. The Euro and Pound should also similarly fall sharply.

Important note: Once again, let me say that the current week is not a positive one according to planetary movements. You should therefore trade cautiously or even no need to trade markets, currencies and commodities. This is also a good time to conclude all pending work or accounts.

During this I am also expecting bad news for world financial market as well as related to all areas of it. I can hear the negative wave but unfortunately unable to see clearly, if get it; I will put it in alert.

@ Insterburg

No Problem, hier noch eine Bubble, ich bin so weit suedlich wie moeglich

@ Aladin,

thank`s a lot !

INSTERBURG

@HW

Nun verstehe ich was du gemeint hast.
Stellt man fest wenn man die anbeisst.

Ich habe Goldex im Depot, aber die sind in Guatemala,hoerte sich so aehnlich an wie Globex.

Geniesst den Rest von Wochenende, Kraft schoepfen fuer die naechste Runde.

Hoffentlich halten die 450 und der HUI auf 215, mal schaun wie stark das Netz ist naechste Woche

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK
BEGINNING NOVEMBER 7, 2005

Short-Term Geocosmics:

With other markets, we note that both precious metals and currencies (against the Dollar) fell hard last week. Gold is already in our first support area of 450 +/- 10. But I think Gold can even fall below 420, which would start to look like a great buy for the longer-term. It would kick in our “Crisis Market” portfolio (convert U.S. Dollars to Gold and other currencies).

The week will begin with a Sun-Mars-Neptune T-square on Monday. Psychologically, this implies a very passive-aggressive characteristic. The Sun-Mars wants to fight, and appear courageous. But the square to both from Neptune implies that such aggression would be foolish, especially given that Mars is retrograde (through December 10). Under such a configuration, acts of aggression usually result in losses or embarrassment. They are not well-advised. It terms of equity markets, this can also coincide with a short-term and possibly sharp reversal, lasting perhaps 2-8 trading days.

Next weekend, Mercury will begin its retrograde motion, joining Mars as “appearing” to move backwards through the skies. The planet of sales and communications will be in retrograde motion through December 3. With both planets retrograde, technical areas of support and resistance may be almost a joke. The rule of the day is more likely to be fake-outs, where the market looks like it is going to take off or fail badly, only to reverse again 1-4 days later. On November 15, Uranus will end its retrograde motion and start moving direct again. With Mercury and Uranus both changing directions within a day of one another, we can expect a lot of volatility and short but sharp price swings. We can also anticipate some very bizarre and incredulous ideas to be proposed by world or business leaders, for these two “intellectual planets” are in square to one another, from the restless mutable sign types, no less. There are no boundaries to what people can think! But ask yourself: is there any practical sense to this? Probably not. And the same will be asked of financial markets: is there any practical sense why markets are doing what they are doing now, given the news stories? Probably not. This will not likely be a time in which logic or common sense is rewarded. Acts of kindness could give way to acts of insanity and exaggeration in the next two weeks (if they haven’t already). And that in turn may give way to acts of aggression (not advised!), as Mars will square Saturn (November 18 ) , with Saturn turning stationary direct on November 22 (very cold or very hot).

But the biggest signature we need to keep in our view is Jupiter in waning trine to Uranus November 27. That signature alone may be enough to keep equity prices up, with several big rallies, probably into early December. This is a huge 14-year signature that has a 78% correlation to primary or greater cycles within just 8 trading days. It could be a top of great importance. The historical odds of it being a crest rather than a trough are 3:1.

Ps. Ich denke mal bei solchen POG wie er jetzt schon ist sollten genug Kaeufer auftauchen die baldige Unterstuezung geben.