Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Ich glaub ich bin im falschen Tread

Da kommt ein Wolf im Schafspelz der gerade im Nachbarthread ein Rotkäpchen auf's übelste traktiert hat, und zwei Board Moderatoren unterhalten sich freundlich mit dem "Schäfchen".

schwejk

Wird wohl genau so sein, sie treten meistens in Rudeln auf.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Wer interessiert an den früheren Beiträgen von Silber Kenner Ted Butler zum Silber Geschehen hat, findet sie hier in englischer Sprache.

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http://butlerresearch.com/archive_free.html

Sieht so aus als darf Mahendra mit einem Tag Verspätung doch noch seinen angekündigten von fast niemandem mehr heute erwarteten Preisanstieg beim Gold erleben!

Anfang dieser Woche sagte dass Gold diese Woche die 400.- überschreiten würde, um danach niemehr darunter zu fallen.

Ich weiss es ist schwer zu glauben, dass es so kommen wird.

Doch schon alleine der Gedanken daran gefällt mir

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl…06/10/content_1519834.htm

French central bank to sell a fifth of gold reserves

http://www.chinaview.cn 2004-06-10 23:05:39

PARIS, June 10 (Xinhuanet) -- The Bank of France's governor Christian Noyer said Thursday that the French central bank intends to sell a fifth of the country's 3,000 tons of gold reserves in the coming five years to reduce the country's public deficit.

Gold is the prime asset of France's exchange reserve and the central bank will conserve a large part of its gold reserve in case of exceptional circumstances, he said.

The central bank will sell up to 600 tons of its gold reserve and replace it with other monetary assets, especially foreign currencies, the governor said, adding that the gold would be sold when the market is healthy and the price is fair.

Reports here said the 3,000 tons of French gold reserves are currently valued at about 30 billion euros (36.9 billion US dollars). 

The plan to sell gold -- first announced at the end of March byFinance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy -- is included in an overall planto dispose of state assets such as real estate and industrial stakes to bring down the deficit. Enditem

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http://www.ipe.com/article_default.asp?article=16806

Swiss MPs vote to use gold for pensions

IPE.com 10/Jun/04: SWITZERLAND -

The lower chamber of the parliament has voted to endow the Swiss first pillar with half of the proceeds from the Swiss National Bank’s sale of 1,300 tons of gold.

The AHV, Alters- und Hinterlassenenversicherung, also known as Assurance Vieillesse et Survivants, would get 50% of the proceeds.

The sale, according to Swiss media, follows the removal of the gold peg in 2000 which has brought in around 20 billion francs (13.2 billion euros).

The SNB currently makes 2.5 billion francs from the sale of gold – which is split between the cantons and the federal government, although nothing as yet has gone to the first pillar. The vote could bring up to 1.25 billion francs a year into the first pillar, reports said.

The remaining 50% is for the cantons – Switzerland’s administrative regions - which have so far received two thirds of the profits.

The decision saw the Peoples Party, the Social Democrats and the Greens win against the Liberal Democrats and the Christian Democrats.

The move could be a sign that MPs back an initiative whereby the profits of the central bank go the first pillar, after deducting one billion francs for the cantons. But they did not discuss this in yesterday’s session.

Finance minister Hans-Rudolf Merz , who is said to be against this initiative, was quoted as saying that if the lower chamber’s decision were upheld by the upper chamber, there would be ‘fatal’ consequences for the economy.

Merz stressed the central bank’s independence of political influences was put under question.

If the upper chamber sided with the lower and their decisions were endorsed by a popular vote, the cantons would lose 417 million francs, receiving only about 1.25 billion francs a year. And the federal government would lose out on 883 million francs.

The issue of the gold sale is going to be one of the hot topics of the summer, the Swiss press forecasts.

By Cecilia Valente

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http://www.thebulliondesk.com/…eports/jimmy/100604ny.htm

Gold capped by CB sales news – New York Bullion Update

10th June 2004

Light rebounds in the Euro and Yen today have helped prop up the ailing gold price; lifting the metal back towards $385 but the announcement by the French government to sell between 500-600-tonnes of its gold reserves has added some pressure. The decision was announced by Bank of France governor Christian Noyer, adding the central bank will wait until gold prices are "appropriate" before agreeing the sale and adding that a decision will be made either by the end of this year or the beginning of 2005. The proceeds of the sales are expected to be used to reduce France’s budget deficit. Increasing bullishness towards the Dollar continues to weigh on the precious metals sector as gold fell through the $388 support level yesterday to post a low of $383. Gold began yesterday trading around $391 but gradually drifted lower as the Euro slipped through the 1.22 support, trading to $388.20 by the COMEX open. US bargain hunters initially appeared on the bid, adding light support but were soon swamped as selling appeared from all corners of the market as the Euro continued lower. Stops added further ammunition once the $385 level was seen and gold quickly fell to its low of $383. Book squaring and light physical buying emerged towards the close, lifting the market back to $384.50 by the end of the day but further selling overnight has extended the lows to $382.80. The shortened week in the US due to the national day of mourning tomorrow will help keep volatility levels high but it seems the bullish sentiment towards the Dollar is likely keep gold and the other metals under pressure with gold likely to test $380-78.

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Good volumes of buying in silver have been seen today, lifting the metal back to $5.70 by the end of the European session. With the Dollar showing signs of selling pressure again this could be construed as a positive move by the industrial metal although I suspect after yesterday’s poor close in the US some early profit taking could be seen. Silver was initially mixed with the industrial metal finding support ahead of $5.70. Silver opened on COMEX at $5.71 and initially climbed as dealer buying forced local shorts to cover. The buying lifted the metal to $5.80 before finding selling from fund players emerged in force. Silver quickly fell back though $5.70, finding stops and trading all the way to a low of $5.60, lifting slightly to close at $5.63. Trade today has kept the metal between $5.64 and yesterday’s low of $5.60 but as with the other metals should the Dollar continue to gain the potential for further selling is large with little in the way of substantial support till the $5.45-40 level.

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Platinum continues to trade around the $800 level today, capped by Dollar related long liquidation and solid support ahead of $795. Platinum has failed to hold the $800 level today, dipping to $796 after trading to a low of $802 during yesterday’s NYMEX session follow the breach of $830 during yesterday’s TOCOM session. With Chinese demand still questionable at the moment platinum is likely to struggle, especially if the Dollar continues to firm with $785 seen as the next level of strong support.

Palladium remains comfortable trading $210-20. Palladium also stumbled yesterday as selling was seen across the day. The industrial metal was pushed through the previous $240 support level by TOCOM traders and remained under pressure for the rest of the day, falling through $230 on the NYMEX open. Palladium eventually traded to a low of $214 and seems to have settled back into the previous $200-20 range.

James Moore
TheBullionDesk.com

Tel : 01799 516956 / 01536 483063

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http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1086797425.php

International Forecaster June, 2004 (#2)

Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

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US MARKETS

The Working Group on Financial Markets better known as “The Plunge Protection Team” and the Fed are doing everything they can to move the stock market higher. They both continue to attempt to suppress the prices of silver and gold as each day more Americans realize the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have been failures. The Bush neocons had a yellow alert recently to take the atrocities at Abu Ghraib prison out of the headlines. The longer we stay bogged down in the Middle East the worse it is going to be. The Fed showing its “patriotism” is increasing aggregates at a $2 trillion annual clip.

Among us are a few executives with the guts to speak out and speak the truth. Bond guru Bill Gross warned that housing and commodity prices are becoming too speculative and he encouraged Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan to hike US interest rates higher before we create too many more bubbles. Gross, Chief investment officer of PIMCO has already positioned his firm’s bond portfolios in anticipation of higher rates. He expects interest rates to rise 1% before the election, starting this month. We believe that is what they should increase, but we believe we will get 1/4% and if lucky 1/2%.

If earlier oil shocks are any guide, the result will be accelerating inflation and a global recession. That is if current prices are sustained. Since industrial countries are largely consumers and importers of oil, a rising price is always a negative factor on demand. The more consumers pay for oil products the less they can spend on other goods. At current price levels $31.00 per month per car in the US. For Corporations higher costs, lower investment, reduced profits and eventual layoffs. Japan gets hit the worst as 45% of its exports go to other Asian countries. GDP would fall 0.5% in 2005 with oil at current levels and a full 1% in 2006. Inflation would pick up by 0.7%. At $40.00 a barrel, Europe would lose 0.3% in GDP in 2005 and 0.4% in 2006. That could be off set if the euro rises to $1.30 again, which we believe it will. This price level has a detrimental effect on business and consumer confidence, especially if this is associated with rising interest rates and worse, if house prices decline.

Over the last four weeks the money supply has increased by $156 billion, which is equal to one-fifth of our nations annual output. The elitists do not want any slowdown until after the election. Annualized that is an increase in aggregates of almost $2 trillion a year almost double any increases the Fed has made in the past. Sir Alan Greenspan has increased the money supply by a staggering 58.3% over the past four years in order to keep America and the world afloat. In spite of this, the dollar is headed down to another test of 84-95 and it probably will test 80 before the election. 9.5% inflation and a negative bond return means there will be a panic out of dollars. A $1.30 euro is very possible before the election and 80 on the dollar index will break next year. This, of course, is very good news for gold.

JP Morgan Chase’s derivative book was $36 trillion at the end of 2003. It was up $3 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2003 alone. The figure is outrageous, which means Morgan is acting for the Fed. We recommend Morgan’s derivative book be audited and examined forensically.

ARMS are up 130% over last year, they made up 50% of all loans over the past two years and they make up 30% of all loans and that is terrifying.

GMAC now contributes two out of every three dollars of GM profits with more than half of the financing profits completely unrelated to the auto business. Wait until interest rates rise. There may not be a GM in five years. Unless, of course, the corporate fascists nationalize it. Once the market starts down then the economy will spike and we are afraid there will be no one to sell to.

Families who can afford a monthly mortgage payment but do not have enough money for a down payment on a home can apply for assistance through a new government program under HUD, the most corrupt of our government agencies. HUD will distribute over $161 million to state and local agencies to help first-time homebuyers defray the costs of the down payment and closing costs typically due at settlement. Grants will be up to $10,000 or 6% of the purchase price. The money can be used to rehabilitate the property. Our government is not only giving houses away but they will pay you to buy one. The program is to help minorities and illegal aliens. That is because fewer than 50% own their own homes and this is a way to drive up housing prices. The Bush neocons want $200 million for next year. This is no way to run a country on a financially sound basis.

Hospitals are seeing a sharp rise in people not paying their bills. It is probably 30% of billings. Kaiser will spend $41 billion this year to cover medical costs for the uninsured. In some instances 50% of hospital earnings are being wiped out. Due to the cost of medical care the situation can only worsen, especially with a recession facing us in 2005 and millions of illegal aliens streaming over the border.

The Republican’s defeat in South Dakota last week shows that not only the presidency is at risk, so is control of Congress. Last time around Bush received 60% of the vote in this district. The public is rebelling against phony terrorist tactics, another war lost, which only served to enrich Mr. Bush’s elitist friends, massive deficits and virtual draft as thousands of soldiers are forced to continue serving in combat long after there enlistments are up.

New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has sued British pharmaceuticals group Glaxo Smith Kline PLC claiming fraud over its antidepressant drug Paxil. The company withheld negative information about Paxil and misrepresented data concerning its safety and efficacy in children and adolescents. They suppressed facts showing increased risk of suicide. More than two million prescriptions for Paxil were written for children and adolescents in the US in 2002. Finally, the truth is winning out thankfully to the giant efforts and guts of Dawn Rider.

Dick Cheney says John Kerry does not support an increase in gasoline taxes of $.50 cents a gallon but he voted three times to increase those taxes.

The secret elitist Bilderberger group is now in session in Stresa, Italy, at the Grand Hotel des Iles Borromees. Here is a preliminary list of Illuminists and soon to be Illuminists. Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition. We wonder how he reconciles Christianity with Satanism because this is a group of Satanist. Incidentally, just south of the meeting in Rome, our Satanist President was meeting with the Pope. In attendance was Democratic Senator Jon Corzine and John Edwards, Henry Kissinger, Richard Perle, Bill Gates’ wife Melinda, the ominous David Rockefeller, Tim Geithmer of the NY Fed, Don Graham of the Washington Post, the President of the CFR, Aspen Institute, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the American Enterprise Institute. We hope to get a more complete list and discussion points later.

A fellow subscriber says, “I have so much work because people are defaulting on their mortgages at a record pace in Orange and Los Angeles counties.” He is picking up properties for 70% below market value. He has had to hire more help because he cannot keep up with the volume. “The volume of Chapter 13 bankruptcies is incredible. In the four years I’ve been working the foreclosure market, I’ve never seen so many 13’s being filed. The volume is so enormous that paralegals are advertising and pawning themselves off as attorneys. I am there to help the people get out of their situation, believe me when I say there are sharks out there who will stop at nothing to screw these poor people out of their homes.” In order for my industry to keep a handle on this hemorrhaging and postpone complete destruction, they have imposed heavy underwriting guidelines and are putting pressure on underwriters, loan officers and processors to scrutinize each borrower closely. There can be no safety in a hyperinflation market, which is scientifically being created and sustained. I’ve always said the media is the mouthpiece of the people’s minds forming opinion on our housing market here in Southern California.”

Russian is in the planning stages of a proposed northern pipeline, earlier known as the Murmansk project, which would support oil exports to the US. The costs will be borne by Russia through the feasibility stage. After that the project would be funded by the US Trade and Development Agency, or by American taxpayers. Feasibility would cost $100 million. The project has not yet begun, but it would start in Surgut in Western Siberia and run to the village of Indega on the Barents Sea. It would carry 1.2 million B/O/D. Moscow is interested in developing the US as a market for Russian oil and gas, citing potential liquefied natural gas exports from offshore artic gas deposits as holding the most interest. The Shtokmanovskoye gas fields in the Barents Sea are viewed as the main source of supply.

Yukos has been stripped of its controlling stake in Sibneft and has a tax bill that could push it into bankruptcy. It still owns 35%. The tax claims are $3.4 billion. The company will be able to only pay 70% of the bill.

More for subscribers....

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International Forecaster June, 2004 (#2)

Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

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GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

The bad news throughout the world piles up and gold stalls at $400.00 as the US government via their gold and silver cartel members continue to pressure the market. Refinancing is falling with new home sales. The effort to drive the 10-year Treasury note below 4.625% was unsuccessful. It is now back to 4.75%. We saw 22 people killed in Khofar, Saudi Arabia and the Saudi government let the murders go. Thirty-six dead in explosions in Baghdad. Oil trades over $42.00 a barrel. The CRB climbs 4.50 to 281.75. Soybeans and corn locked limit up, wheat jumped $0.26 to $3.88 a bushel. Our fleet is headed into the China Sea. Again, on the plus side gold open interest continues to fall to about 234,000 contracts. This allows the specs plenty of room to enter the market. Silver interest also remains relatively low at around 86,000 contracts. As you can see, the fundamentals are again in place for another upward run in gold and silver.

AIG International Ltd., part of AIG Group, Inc., will no longer be a London Bullion Market Association market maker in gold and silver. They were a first-tier market maker and dealer in over-the-counter spot, forward and swap markets in precious metals. This departure follows the exit of Rothschild from the London gold pool. It looks like hedging is over.

Consumer demand for gold including jewelry and retail was up 12% in the first quarter from last year and up 30% in dollar terms. That happened even as the average gold price moved from $352 to $408 an ounce. The big buyers were Japan, Turkey, Vietnam, UAE, India and Saudi Arabia. Total gold supply fell 7%, which is enormously significant and portents pressure for higher gold prices. Production will probably fall again in 2004, some 4-6%. These factors may be why commercials are longer than they have been in many years. Net short positions are under 20%, which could not be more bullish. Let’s not forget a weakening dollar. All in all the fundamental case is very bullish.

There is something really serious going on behind the scenes. We see the Plunge Protection Team (working group on Financial Markets) holding the Dow and other averages in line, they are trying to break the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note below 4.625% to strengthen bonds and they are blatantly forcing gold and silver lower in spite of heavy buying. We do not, as yet, know what is up, but it must be real bad. Recently the ECB warned Europeans to move out of dollar related assets. Japan has been a dollar seller, as well as stocks, agencies and US government debt. This is the first time we have seen them as large net sellers.

More for subscribers....

kalle14

Liest sich wirklich gut

John Hathaway sieht die Gold Preise auch anziehen

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Gold Maven Unbowed by Fed Speak

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By Aaron L. Task
TheStreet.com San Francisco Bureau Chief
6/10/2004 7:10 AM EDT

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/10165400.html