Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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Reuters

UPDATE - Venezuela retains US firm's gold in mines crackdown

Wednesday March 10, 1:14 pm ET
By Pascal Fletcher

CARACAS, Venezuela, March 10 (Reuters) - Venezuelan authorities said Wednesday they had retained about $2 million of gold produced by a U.S. mining company in a crackdown against illegal exports, but the company said the case was an administrative mix-up.

Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE:HL - News), the largest private gold producer in Venezuela, said it was in full compliance with Venezuelan tax, export and regulatory laws. National Guard troops Tuesday took away 5,400 ounces of gold, produced by Hecla for export, from a secure warehouse in eastern Bolivar state.

Gen. Alberto Betancourt, the National Guard commander for the Bolivar region, said his troops moved the gold to Central Bank custody because Hecla had failed to clear up so far apparent irregularities in export and tax documentation.

"Up to now, everything points to them (Hecla) having some serious deficiencies," he told Reuters.

Tom Fudge, the head of Hecla's Venezuelan operations, said the company was cooperating with the authorities.

"This is just an administrative misunderstanding and we'll get things sorted out shortly," he said.

"They've made a request for documents, we'll fulfill that and we'll be delivering those documents soon."

The incident occurred at a time when Venezuela's leftist President, Hugo Chavez (News) , who is facing a bid by opponents to hold a referendum on his rule, has recently stepped up verbal attacks against the U.S. government, accusing Washington of trying to topple him. U.S. officials deny the accusation.

But Chavez said Tuesday, adopting a more conciliatory tone, that he had no wish to damage economic ties with the United States, which is the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil.

Betancourt said the action against Hecla had no anti-U.S. connotations and was part of a general crackdown against the illegal export of gold and diamonds, which he said were being smuggled out of the country in "enormous quantities."

"We're putting some order into the mining sector," he said.

He added that Hecla would be given the opportunity to clarify the status of its gold exports.

"OVER THE TOP"

Mining industry sources said the investigation against Hecla, a respected foreign operator in Venezuela that also has mines in the United States and Mexico, was likely to alarm the mining community.

"They have every right to check documents, but it's the way they do it and the signal it sends. It's totally over the top," said one foreign mining expert, who asked not to be named.

The government announced in September it would closely review all existing contracts and concessions. At least two concessions, held by a U.S.-controlled diamond company, Guaniamo Mining, were revoked.

This raised some fears about the security of mining investments in Venezuela, although local officials said the concerns were unfounded.

Fudge played down the inquiry involving his company.

"We don't see this as anything particularly directed at us. We don't see it as a new campaign against the mining companies or anything like that," he said.

Hecla has said it plans to double its gold output from Venezuela to more than 300,000 ounces a year in the next five years, by further developing its La Camorra mine and bringing a new project in its Block B property on line in 2005.

"It's business as usual. We're proceeding with our current development plans at La Camorra and Block B. We're confident things will continue to proceed as planned," Fudge said.

Venezuela, the world's No. 5 oil exporter, was recently hit by a wave of anti-government protests in which at least nine people were killed in clashes between troops and opposition demonstrators demanding that Chavez submit to a recall vote. (Additional reporting by Dan Burns in New York)

Es regt sich was beim Silber!

Die Leasing Raten steigen.

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March 10, 2004 16:33

North American Palladium Ltd. Announces 2003 Results

Website: http://www.napalladium.com Trading Symbol TSX - PDL AMEX - PAL

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/s…yTitle=Metals&Type=metals

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http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_394333.html

Yamana Gold "buy"

Wednesday, March 10, 2004 1:47:47 PM ET

Canaccord Capital

NEW YORK, March 10 (New Ratings) - Analysts at Canaccord Capital maintain their "buy" rating on Yamana Gold Inc (YRI). The target price is set to $3.50.

In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company reported the preliminary results of its gold sampling program. According to the analysts, Yamana Gold reported a two-fold rise in the bulk sample grade due to an increase in recovered coarse gold. The analysts add that the company’s share price has upside potential in the near term due to the recent gold recovery.

© 2004 New Ratings

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March 10 - Gold $399.70 down $4.10 - Silver $7.13 down 2 cents

A Saudi Whopper

Zitat

"The sons of all of us will pay in the future if we of the present do not do justice in the present." --Theodore Roosevelt

The beat goes on, the gold capping beat that is. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley came out early and pounded gold, taking it down $7 at one point. While bullion rallied back off its lows, the cabal forces still managed to close it below the visible $400 number.

Silver came off an early 10 cent dip to go up 8 cents on the day at one point, but couldn’t hold onto the gains.

Meanwhile, platinum closed at an all-time new high close of $924, up $27 per ounce. Palladium has been on a scamper too, closing at $271, up $12.

The gold news from http://www.bulliondesk.com

Gold less important for Central Banks-German finmin

REUTERS - A Bundesbank plan to sell gold over the next five years shows the yellow metal is no longer so important for central bank policy as it was, the German finance ministry said in a document obtained by Reuters on Wednesday. "The decision of the Bundesbank board shows gold reserves today no longer have the same ... >>>>

10 Mar 10:00

France might sell gold to fund research -minister

REUTERS - France might consider selling some gold stocks to help finance a scientific research sector now working to rule in protest at inadequate state support, Research Minister Claudie Haignere said on Wednesday. The Bank of France, which has not sold gold in recent years, had no immediate comment on Haignere's suggestion during a radio interview ... >>>>

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- German lawmakers unanimously opposed a plan by Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke to sell as much as 20 percent of the central bank's gold reserves to fund research, Deputy Finance Minister Karl Diller said, citing budget problems.

After European central banks this week agreed to cut their gold reserves, members of the German parliament's budget committee said profit from such sales such be used, as stipulated by German law, to reduce debt. Welteke told the committee in Berlin that low interest rates cut the Bundesbank's profit last year.

The plan to sell gold to fund research ``was regarded by everybody with skepticism,'' Diller told reporters. The Bundesbank's 2003 profit will be ``clearly under'' 3.5 billion euros ($4.28 billion), he cited Welteke as saying. German law states that the first 3.5 billion euros of the bank's annual profit must be used to cut federal net borrowing needs… –END-

Who knows what that all means? However, it would be a shock if France sold any gold in the years come. They are on record as being firmly against such type of action.

OK, here is a whopper for you, but one which could be right on the money. A few weeks ago a very reliable and distinguished source told me an established Middle East central banker said some group out of Australia was looking for 2000 tonnes of gold. Central bankers are not ones prone to idle chatter. Yet, the amount was so staggering I felt it better left unsaid.

Then, last evening another informed source from Switzerland told me the Saudis a going to be buying gold in a major way. Whether they have begun already was not clear. Perhaps this is what the Middle East central banker was really talking about and told my source it was Australians.

If this is true, and I have no idea if this information sent my way is for real, gold is going to go through the roof. Time will tell.

The gold open interest rose 3339 contracts to 230,009, while the silver open interest gained 2894 contracts to 116,299. The March open interest is 458. It fell 72 contracts.

There were 25 silver deliveries. Deutsche Bank stopped 4 of them.

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The John Brimelow Report

JB: Greenspan, Mankiw, Snow & FT on FNM/FRE: connect the dots

Wednesday, March 10, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: $2.51 and $3.30, with world gold at $402.50 and $400.75. Below legal import point. These are weaker premiums than shown when gold was above $400 a month ago: perhaps the end of the marriage season is exerting an influence.

Silver, on the other hand, shows premiums apparently above legal import point, which is surprising. When world silver last saw these prices, in the aftermath of the Buffett news six years ago, the Indian domestic price was fleetingly below the overseas price. India appears to be willing to accept $7ish world prices, which is crucial news for Bulls.

An attempt was made to resume yesterday’s NY momentum when Tokyo opened, but as Mitsui-HK candidly observes:

"A short-lived rally met with heavy physical dishoarding above 404. Tocom participants turned aggressive sellers in the pm, hammering gold down to 401" TOCOM volume jumped 70% to the equivalent of 43,257 Comex lots; open interest dropped 1,246 Comex equivalent. The active contract was down 4 yen; world gold went out $2.45 below the NY close. In essence, Japanese traders sensed a physical seller and fled. (NY yesterday traded 47,207 lots; open interest jumped 3,339 contracts.)

Bullion dealers commentators seem to agree with the assessment here yesterday that there was a Fund buyer active in NY. ScotiaMocatta says:

Zitat

"Gold…reached to low of 400.60 within the first few minutes of trading. Fund buying then entered the market, providing the metal with direction for the rest of the day. When gold broke 403.00, dealers were forced to cover their short positions, adding further fuel to the fund initiated rally."

What they are less open about was the force that stopped the rally: estimated volume surged by a third in the last half hour, during which gold dropped by almost $2.

Realizing that a seller is capping the gold market (at least) introduces intelligibility into an otherwise counter intuitive situation: unexpected record trade deficit: dollar jumps, etc. While many gold observers are distracted by the various European statements on gold sales (meaningless, if one credits the new Washington Accord-2) more attention should be focused on the following sequence of news stories:

1) Fed Chairman Greenspan denies US responsible for FNM/FRE Mortgage Monsters.

2) Chairman of Presidents Council of Economic Advisors Mankiw denies US responsible for FNM/FRE Mortgage Monsters

3) (Yesterday) Treasury Secretary Snow denies US responsible for FNM/FRE mortgage Monsters.

4) FT carries stories today asserting FNM has $25.1B in undisclosed derivatives losses, and questions FNM’s capital adequacy (see Appendix). Bianco Research has charts documenting an abrupt, steep decline of Asian net purchases of Government Agency Securities, observing;

"the stories above are not good news"

Time to join up the dots?

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (10,296, down 160) and DOG (1964, down 31) are finally breaking down. The PPT was overpowered today. It could get ugly.

The trade news was terrible, so the dollar surges??? Go figure!

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $43.1 billion in January, as exports of foods, consumer goods and auto parts declined and prices of imported oil rose, a government report showed.

The excess of imports over exports of goods and services in January compared with a trade deficit of $42.7 billion in December, the Commerce Department reported in Washington. Exports fell 1.2 percent, the biggest drop since August, and imports were the second highest on record. -END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed continued its planned reduction of DOW support by keeping the repo pool low at $26.50 Billion after adding only $4.22 Billion today March10th 2004. This consisted of $3.75 Billion in temporary omos (open market operations) and $470 Million in permanent omos (which were announced yesterday but delivered into the system, and thus effective, today).

Obligingly, the DOW has dipped below its 30-day ma in a conspicuous manner not seen since November 2003 just prior to its recent engineered run up. We see the DOW today again struggling along at 10,450 as it gasps for more repo oxygen. Surely, without this Federal Reserve artificial support the DOW would quickly plunge many thousands of points.

Market Commentary

Market commentary regarding the DOW that ignores the Federal Reserve repo pool and its heavy influence is just window dressing, good only for its entertainment value. As you have highlighted for many years here at the cafe, precious metals market commentary that ignores government intervention is similarly useless.

The dogmatic, not-invented-here stance by such thinly aware metals gurus hurts the people they most want to help their own subscribers, as it deprives them of a logical framework from which to make reasonable future market assumptions and replaces that framework with their own home brew of TA mixed with their special trading, hence expensive, "experience". The record is clear who have been correct.

I have updated my interventional analysis site

http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis

with the following brief addition:

Definitions:

(1) DIVG is the price of gold adjusted for the changing value of the US dollar
(2) DIVG 200ma single is a vertical expansion of the DIVG with moving averages added
(3) Changes_Currency_Gold displays the relative changes in euro, yen, dollar and gold since December 5th 2002. The O'Neill Period is the interval after his departure and before the confirmation of his replacement. During that period the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) could not be utilized for currency or gold price controls since the action of both the Secretary of Treasury and the President are required
(4) Repos tracks the daily correlation between the pool of un-expired Federal Reserve repurchase agreements (permanent and temporary) and the DOW

Mike

Chuck checks in with a bunch of goodies:

It seems obvious to me that we are in motion here. The usual tedious gap down in gold and the shares, is tracking lockstep the dollar's rally in the Euro. Of course, once the XAU heads down, it never rallies. Get me out!

But, on the other hand, the market is continuing its technical break sneaking down without drawing any real concern reinforced by the past year's pattern. Every 30 points is met with some by those who see the break as a historic opportunity to buy at these cheap levels. The breaks should get steeper and more frequent and soon. March has been a major turning month since 2000. This year doesn't appear to be any different. "Man is a mere phantom as he goes to and fro: He bustles about, but only in vain; he heaps up wealth, not knowing who will get it." Psalm 39: 6 Chuck ikiecohen@msn.com…….

This looks like it, warts and all. The weakness in gold shares are to be expected at the first thrust, but I think we will see good relative strength from here. The next pop up while the market sinks should be a positive sign. Who is left to buy this stock market. Looks like a fascinating spring.

Chuck….

A final look at the market today is needed because the stock market definitely appears to be changing gears and direction following a full year of greed, manipulation and extreme technical sentiment. I have felt that that these three factors would ,sooner or later, lead to a decline that will be frighteningly sharp, perhaps culminating in a panic.

The tip offs have been the unnatural way in which this market has performed. No attempted sell offs, no bad openings, no bad closes, no fear, just a greedy expectation, almost a just entitlement. In other words, the spirit that pervaded the bubble mentality of the late 90's never left the cadaver. That explains the rampant bullishness of the public and Wall Street in spite of all of the historically bearish technical evidence, and with the stark warnings by proven top investors such as Warren Buffett and Bill Gross. The end of this mindless speculation befits our once proud and industrious nation that fell prey to a philosophy of easy credit and winning the lottery, all along fueled by a deceived political system and an all too accommodating Federal Reserve apparatus.

I believe that the ensuing decline will conclude these delusions and a interminable period of suffering and tribulation will be the hallmark of the next one. That is also why I mentioned the two phenomena of "The Passion" and "The Purpose Driven Life" in this context. All of the constant warnings and evidence of a once great nation on the ledge of a massive decline that you have read in this site and elsewhere on the Internet are about to sadly realized. America is about to be bankrupted materially, but find the true meaning and purpose of life in its wake.

I have felt it was definitely possible to, at first, have some sympathetic decline in the precious metals area as the inflationary bias is purged out the financial markets. But, I seriously doubt that there will be much of a decline given the enormity of the structural problems. Please remember that the market is prescient, the single greatest leading indicator ever found, and if there is a financial crisis on the horizon, as I and many others believe, the gold market, particularly the shares will anticipate it. Do not be shaken out of your convictions or positions. In conclusion, expect anything from this time on. I will. Chuck ikiecohen@msn.com

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hey Bill:

I am sure you no doubt noticed that bizarre sell off in the majors within mere seconds immediately follow the release of the horrendous trade deficit figures.

The Euro spiked up as the dollar dropped only to get cut down like someone swung a scythe across it while the dollar was miraculously resuscitated.

The widest EVER trade deficit on a monthly basis was posted back in March 2003 when the figure came in at a negative $43 billion. Today's figure for Janurary 2004 of negative $43.6 billion blew it away. Currency traders immediately sold the dollar on the release of the data only to be met by a huge wall of buying that somehow managed to set Humpty Dumpty back on its wall again.

This has to be perhaps one of the strangest phenomenon's we have seen this year thus far. It now seems that even the cure for a runaway trade imbalance is no longer to be permitted by those who would be gods over us. What will it be next month? $45 billion? The month after- $46 billion? Nothing else could explain such a convoluted reaction to the trade numbers except that the financial authorities are becoming terrified of a dollar in free fall and felt the need to prop it up to prevent a complete meltdown of the thing in today' session. What a conundrum they have created - they MUST allow the dollar to fall if they have any hope whatsoever of bringing the trade deficit under control and reviving the U.S. export industry in time for the election. Yet, if they step out of the way, the dollar will be smashed with the result that inflationary pressures will see the lid come off the pressure cooker.

It was amusing watching the Bill O"Reilly show "The Factor" last evening on the Fox News Channel as he was on a tirade about soaring gas prices at the pump. The pitiful "expert" that he had on to explain the phenomenon laid the root cause everywhere except for where it belonged - the weak dollar! But what was revealing is that the soaring gasoline price has now obviously caught the public's attention. We now are witnessing the legacy of Greenspan and Bernanke's "accomodative monetary policy" as the price of tangible goods begins to defy gravity. What do we think is going to happen when the public actually wakes up and begins to realize that the cost of everything is soaring while the authorities continue to repeat their accursed "there is no inflation" mantra? Whose head are they going to demand?

What is equally strange is watching the Yen moving up a bit while the rest of the majors sold off. Apparantly this action in supporting the dollar is strictly limited to the ESF. The BOJ is holding their power dry waiting for the Yen to approach their new line in the sand. Yet it is Japan that has the huge trade surplus with the U.S. One would expect that the Yen would have particularly moved up sharply given the huge imbalance we have with them. Perhaps the trade deficit numbers were so bad that the ESF called in the aid of the BOJ after all to keep the yen rise under control and limit it to just a few points.

While I have grown somewhat nonplussed in witnessing the ever-increasing forays by this new brand of elitist central planners, today's action has me sitting there shaking my head in astonishment at what is happening to our system of price discovery mechanisms. They simply no longer function. The more these desperate men meddle, the worse the inevitable correction is going to be. One would think that as brilliant as some of them are who are behind the intervention, they would surely realize what kind of Frankenstein monster they are giving birth to. Maybe they no longer are capable of seeing. That is what is really frightening.

Dan

dnorcini@earthlink.net

More from Dan:

Bill:

Check out this Euro Silver chart. It is simply stunning. I can send you one of the yen that I maintain as well if you want a peak. Simply astounding.

Euro Silver 3-10-2004 Chart

By the way, have you seen platinum today? Up over $17.00/ounce as I write this at $915. Wow!

Best,

Dan

Gold coin news:

Bill:

Interesting conversation today with a large PM dealer in Chicago (he supplies a lot of smaller shops and has lots of inventory at any given time).

He noted that gold bullion coins of any kind are "very, very hard" to get right now and that the only reliable source is the new Eagles coming from the US Mint.

Surprising in light of the current POG--indicates to me that there is very strong demand for gold at these prices.

Bob

Jim Puplava and Eric King have a terrific piece up at Kitco titled:

Open the Checkbook - Buy the Ounces

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Puplava/mar092004.html

The Dow Jones Spitzer story is getting around nicely.........

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Precious+Metals

Good news for ECU Silver shareholders. From CEO Michel Roy:

Dear shareholders,

We finally received some of the assays from the samples sent to independent recognized assayers. There is no surprise on the continuity of the CC and Gs veins that are our main current source of ore, the grades and thicknesses are similar to what we get in the stopes. A nice surprise was a wide intercept in the A4 vein less than 15 meters from the actual workings that could allow us to open a new high yield stope this month. Furthermore, several ore grade intercepts in new veins could eventually generate new producing areas.

However, we think that the wide intercept (26.75 meters) of mineralized skarn could be much more significant that all the other news. In the last few years, hundreds of samples of skarn were assayed for gold and silver and only one returned a value above background, namely 7 g/t silver. Now, we have several samples that returned values for gold and silver with some copper, lead and zinc. The logical geological explanation is that we are getting closer to the mineralized contact between the intrusive and the host rock, those contacts generally host the ore deposits in this type of geological environment.

Truly yours,

Michel Roy

011-52-871-727-1061 cell Mexico
1-450-771-8652 cell Canada (until March 16th)
819-797-1210 off

ECU Silver closed at 64 cents Cdn., up 3 cents.

The gold shares were hammered. The XAU dropped 3.24 to 97.74 and the HUI was clobbered, falling 8.84 to 220.47. My take on this retreat and poor action lately is hedge funds short the dollar, long gold/shares, long high tech stocks are running for the hills. Money management rules have them selling portions of their portfolios in all categories.

It’s only a matter of time before gold and silver follow platinum’s lead.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Derivatives losses fuel doubts over Fannie Mae

By Stephen Schurr in New York

Financial Times

Tuesday, March 9, 2004

Fannie Mae paid a net $25.1 billion on derivatives transactions in under four years -- nearly all of which may represent losses that cannot be recouped, in turn depressing future earnings.

The potential scale of the liabilities, which have yet to be recognised in the company's earnings or in the minimum capital adequacy required by its regulator, raise fresh doubts about the financial health of the mortgage finance giant.

Regulation of Fannie Mae and its sibling Freddie Mac is rapidly moving up the agenda in Washington, amid concerns that the two goverment-sponsored entities have grown so big that they pose a systemic risk to the U.S. financial system. The two entities own or guarantee mortgages totalling $4,000 billion.

How the $24 billion losses estimate is reached

On Tuesday John Snow, U.S. treasury secretary, renewed the criticism, saying: "We don't believe in a too-big-to-fail doctrine, but the reality is that the market treats the paper as if the government is backing it."

His comments follow similar warnings from Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Gregory Mankiw, chairman of George W. Bush's council of economic advisers.

Fannie Mae acknowledges it has taken losses in its derivatives trading that have not yet been recognised it its earnings, but declines to disclose the amount. The reason, said Jonathan Boyles, vice-president of financial standards and taxes at Fannie Mae, is that "we don't believe it's all that meaningful."

A Fannie Mae spokeswoman added that the company typically held its positions to maturity and as such it did not see the losses as material.

Next Monday Fannie Mae is due to release its annual "fair value disclosure" -- a statement of the current market value of its derivatives positions. Observers will be watching to see if the gap between the company's regulatory capital and fair value has widened further than the $6 billion shortfall of a year ago.

A Financial Times analysis of Fannie's accounts suggests it may have incurred losses on its derivatives trading of $24
billion between 2000 and third-quarter 2003. That figure represents nearly all of the $25.1bn used to purchase or settle transactions in that period. Any net losses will eventually have to be recognised on Fannie Mae's balance sheet, depressing future profits.

Fannie Mae maintained that the losses from cashflow hedging will have no bearing on the capital adequacy required by its regulator.

However, critics increasingly question whether Fannie Mae's financial disclosure offers a complete picture of its fiscal health.

"They have used the derivative accounting rules for cash-flow hedges to defer some losses that they have taken," said John Barnett, senior analyst at the Center for Financial Research & Analysis, an independent research firm. "They may not be as
well-capitalised as they appear to be for regulatory purposes."

*************

Kauft noch etwas zusätzliches physisches Gold und Silber !!

Es geht bald los. ich kanns schon richtig spüren.

Falls Fanny Mae, oder Fredy Mac den Bach runter gehen sollten, stehen wir vor Problemen die wir uns gar noch nicht richtig ausmahlen können.

Falls beide Firmen aus ihrem Derivativ Chaos nicht mehr herauskommen, und Konkurs gehen sollten, betrifft das nicht nur die Amis, sondern auch uns Europäer, ja die ganze Welt.

Das war jetzt keine Panikmache, sondern ein Rat sich nicht nur in Calls, und Aktien auf Gold und Silber zu investieren, sondern auch echtes Gold, oder Silber, oder noch besser gleich beide Edelmetalle zu kaufen. ich glaube viel Zeit verbleibt uns dazu nicht mehr sich zu diesen vom Cabal manipulierten Tiefpreisen einzudecken.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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Do 11.03.2004

Anleger im Goldrausch, doch Vorsicht: Lieber auf Fonds setzen

Schwacher Dollar treibt den Preis - Starke Nachfrage aus China
München - Goldene Zeiten für Goldanleger. Der Preis für das edle Metall steigt und steigt. Wurden je Feinunze Anfang 2001 noch rund 260 Dollar gezahlt, waren es zuletzt um die 400 Dollar. Und zahlreiche Argumente sprechen für eine Fortsetzung der Goldrallye.

Dass die Nachfrage nach dem Edelmetall in den vergangenen Jahren zugenommen hat ist wenig verwunderlich. Gold ist ein klassischer Indikator für wirtschafts- und geopolitische Spannungen. Und davon gab es in den vergangenen vier Jahren mehr als genug. Die Terroranschläge vom 11. September, der Irak-Krieg, Bilanzskandale, eine schwache Konjunktur und nicht zuletzt ein weltweiter Abschwung an den Aktienmärkten sorgten dafür, dass Anleger zusehends in sichere Häfen wie festverzinsliche Wertpapiere und Gold flüchteten.

Verkäufer von Gold warten auf noch höhere Preise

Zwar mehren sich inzwischen die Zeichen für einen nachhaltigen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung. Dennoch ist die Nachfrage nach dem gelben Metall ungebrochen. Und dies liegt keineswegs an dessen Funktion als Krisenbarometer. Derzeit steht einer jährlichen Produktion von gerade mal 2700 Tonnen eine Nachfrage in Höhe von rund 3500 Tonnen gegenüber. Und daran dürfte sich vorerst auch wenig ändern. Ein großer Teil der Nachfrage kommt aus dem boomenden Wirtschaftsraum China. Und das wird nach Expertenansicht auch in diesem Jahr so bleiben. Die im Zuge der wirtschaftlichen Dynamik entstandene Mittelschicht von rund 200 Millionen Chinesen hat einen enormen Bedarf an Gold - vor allem für Schmuck. Gleichzeitig ist das Angebot begrenzt. So hat sich zum einen das Verhalten der Produzenten verändert. Diese hielten sich in Erwartung eines weiter steigenden Goldpreises mit Verkäufen immer mehr zurück.

Zu einer Belebung des Interesses an dem seltenen Metall: Der US-Konjunktur ist nicht zu trauen

haben aber auch die niedrigen Zinsen beigetragen. In Folge des massiven Konjunktureinbruchs rund um den Erdball, haben die Notenbanken, allen voran die US-Zentralbank, ihre Zinsen zum Teil kräftig gesenkt, um die Konjunktur zu beleben. "Damit sind die Opportunitätskosten von Gold im Vergleich zu Zinsanlagen gesunken", erläutert Wolfgang Wilke, Rohstoffexperte der Dresdner Bank. Gold hat also gegenüber sicheren Zinsanlagen an Attraktivität gewonnen. Einer der Haupteinflussfaktoren auf den Preis des Edelmetalls aber ist die Dollarentwicklung. "Gold wird in Dollar notiert", erklärt Wilke. "Fällt der Kurs der US-Währung, dann steigt der Goldpreis." Und so trieb insbesondere der schwache Dollar den Preis für das glänzende Edelmetall zuletzt nach oben.

Dass die Dollarschwäche vorbei ist, daran glaubt Experte Wilke nicht. "Die amerikanische Konjunktur ist keineswegs so stark wie allgemein angenommen." Vor allem der hochdefizitäre Staatshaushalt und das hohe US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit machen ihn skeptisch. "Anleger investieren ihr Kapital dort, wo sie die höchsten Renditen erzielen", so Wilke. Und derzeit sei Euroland attraktiver. Da die Wechselkursentwicklung im Wesentlichen von den Kapitalströmen bestimmt wird, geht der Analyst von einer Fortsetzung der Dollarschwäche aus.

Wilke hält eine Abwertung der US-Währung auf bis zu 1,40 Dollar gegenüber dem Euro für möglich. Und das werde sich auch in einem weiter steigenden Goldpreis niederschlagen. Zwar geht er davon aus, dass der Kurs des Edelmetalls in diesem Jahr durchschnittlich um die 420 Dollar schwanken wird. "In der Spitze sind aber bis zu 480 US-Dollar erreichbar." Wer auf Gold setzen möchte, sollte vorsichtig sein. Schließlich hat der Goldpreis bereits einen steilen Anstieg hinter sich. Rückschläge sind möglich. Vorsichtige Anleger sollten deshalb auf Fonds setzen, die in Goldminenaktien investieren.

VON GERD HÜBNER

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http://www.welt.de/data/2004/03/10/249746.html

Donnerstag, 11. März 2004 Berlin, 07:26 Uhr

Bahn hat 2003 im Fernverkehr 470 Millionen Euro Verlust eingefahren.

Abwärtstrend in Sparte im Februar aber erstmals gestoppt. Hauptursache war das neue Preissystem des Unternehmens

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Seit dem Fahrplanwechsel 2003 hatte die Bahn auch mit großen Verspätungen zu kämpfenFoto: dpa

Düsseldorf - Die Deutsche Bahn hat im vergangenen Jahr nach einem Bericht des "Handelsblatt" im Fernverkehr einen Verlust von 470 Millionen Euro eingefahren. Grund für das Minus sei vor allem die Pleite mit dem neuen Preissystem, berichtete das Magazin unter Berufung auf Unternehmenskreise. Auch die Korrektur der Tarife habe dann 2003 keine Verbesserung mehr gebracht.

Dies wird dem Bericht zufolge von der Bahn mit der schlechten Konjunktur begründet. Hinzu seien katastrophale Einbrüche bei der Pünktlichkeit der Züge gekommen. Seit dem Fahrplanwechsel im Dezember 2003 seien die Verspätungen jedoch kontinuierlich zurückgegangen. Mehr als 90 Prozent aller Fernzüge würden heute weniger als fünf Minuten verspätet sein.

Bahn-Chef Hartmut Mehdorn wird am Freitag dem Aussichtrat die vorläufige Bilanz seines Unternehmen vorlegen. Dabei seien „wesentliche Eckdaten“ der Planung auch im schwierigen Konjunkturumfeld erreicht worden, zitiert die Zeitung die Bahn-Kreise. Im Februar diesen Jahres sei auch die seit Mitte 2003 anhaltende Talfahrt im Personenfernverkehr erstmals gestoppt worden. Mehdorn werde in der Aufsichtsratssitzung von einer „deutlichen Bewegung“ nach oben berichten können. Der Umsatz im Fernverkehr habe bis auf die Stelle hinter dem Komma das Niveau des Februar 2003 erreicht, liege allerdings knapp unter den Planungen. WELT.de/AFP

Argentinien droht ein weiteres staatliches Zahlungsversprechen von 3.1 Milliarden US Dollar, gegenüber dem IWF zu brechen, und noch den allerletzten kleinen Rest an Glaubwürdigkeit zu verlieren.

Argentinien kann, oder will nicht zahlen, ausser der IWF ermöglicht den Argentiniern eine weitere Kreditaufnahme in genau der gleichen Höhe von 3.1 Milliarden US Dollars, den sie zurückzahlen müssen, und verkauft dann der Presse und der Oeffentlichkeit, obendrein alles noch als wirtschaftliche Fortschritte Argentiniens.

«Wir haben die volle Summe erhalten»

Schreibt der IWF in der untenstehenden Pressemeldung!

Für wie blöd halten die uns eigentlich beim IWF?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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IWF gibt grünes Licht für Milliardenkredit an Argentinien

Washington (dpa) - Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) hat Argentinien in letzter Minute einen Milliardenkredit gewährt, der alte Verbindlichkeiten abdeckt. Der IWF habe grünes Licht für die Auszahlung von 3,1 Milliarden Dollar gegeben, teilte die geschäftsführende IWF-Direktorin Anne Krueger in Washington mit.

Exakt diese Summe war am Dienstag aus alten Verbindlichkeiten Argentiniens beim IWF fällig geworden. Die Tranche ist Teil einer Kreditlinie, die im vergangenen Herbst ausgehandelt worden war. Sie deckt ausschließlich die Verbindlichkeiten Argentiniens gegenüber dem IWF ab. Formell muss der Exekutivrat des IWF der Auszahlung noch zustimmen. Das soll nach IWF-Angaben in den kommenden zwei Wochen passieren.

Damit verhindert das schwer verschuldete Land einen Zahlungsverzug, der die Kreditwürdigkeit sowohl Argentiniens als auch des IWF schwer beeinträchtigt hätte.

Der IWF lobte die wirtschaftlichen Fortschritte Argentiniens. «Besonders die hohen Steuereinnahmen und die strenge Ausgabenkontrollen haben 2003 zu einer besseren fiskalischen Position geführt als geplant», teilte der IWF mit. Er mahnte Argentinien zu weiteren Strukturreformen, vor allem bei den öffentlichen Versorgungsbetrieben, und einer Stärkung des Bankensektors größeren fiskalischen Einnahmen.

Er forderte Argentinien auf, «vernünftige Verhandlungen» mit den privaten Gläubigern zu führen. Zu diesem Zweck habe Argentinien sich verpflichtet, einen Zeitplan aufzustellen. Die Einzelheiten sind nach Angaben des IWF in der Absichtserklärung enthalten, die Argentinien zur Freigabe der Kredittranche unterzeichnete. Es liege im Ermessen der argentinischen Regierung, dieses Papier zu veröffentlichen.

Argentinien musste dem IWF bis Dienstag 3,1 Milliarden Dollar aus einem alten Kredit zurückzahlen. Die Regierung hatte mehrfach gedroht, die Frist verstreichen zu lassen, sollte der IWF die neue Tranche nicht freigeben. Der Durchbruch kam in einem klärenden Gespräch zwischen Krueger und dem argentinischen Präsidenten Néstor Kirchner am Dienstag.

Die nötige Absichtserklärung, mit der Argentinien sich verpflichtet, die Bedingungen für den neuen Kredit zu erfüllen, wurde am Mittwoch in Buenos Aires unterzeichnet. «Wir haben die volle Summe erhalten», sagte IWF-Pressesprecher Tom Dawson.

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erschienen am 10.03.2004 um 18:26 Uhr
© WELT.de

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http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=473356&section=news

Restriktive Kreditvergabe droht Aufschwung zu gefährden

Berlin (Reuters) - Die deutschen Unternehmen sehen sich angesichts der vorsichtigen Kreditvergabepraxis der Banken vor anhaltend großen Finanzierungsproblemen, die den beginnenden Aufschwung in Deutschland beeinträchtigen könnten.

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Eine Umfrage unter rund 4600 Firmen aus 24 Branchen, die von der KfW-Gruppe und einer Reihe von Wirtschaftsverbänden am Mittwoch in Berlin vorgelegt wurde, ergab, dass die Kreditaufnahme für gut 43 Prozent der Firmen im vergangenen Jahr erneut schwieriger wurde. Kleinere Unternehmen seien davon weit härter als große betroffen. Von ihnen habe jedes Zweite über Probleme bei der Kreditaufnahme geklagt. Rund zwölf Prozent der Firmen seien Kreditanträge für Investitionen abgelehnt worden. Auch Kündigungen von Geschäftsbeziehungen mit Mittelstandskunden durch die Kunden seien nicht selten. Industrieverbandspräsident Michael Rogowski warnte: "Wird den mittelständischen Unternehmen der Boden unter den Füßen weggezogen, hätte dies gravierende Auswirkungen auf unsere sowieso schon niedrigen Wachstumserwartungen".

KfW-Chef Hans Reich erklärte: "Die Finanzprobleme der Unternehmen sind dramatisch". Sie spiegelten den Strukturwandel im Finanzsektor wieder, der sich mit hoher Geschwindigkeit fortsetze. Inzwischen gebe es aber Indizien dafür, dass viele Banken die Potenziale des Geschäfts mit den über 3,3 Millionen Kunden im Mittelstand wieder deutlicher sähen und ihre Strategie anpassten.

Rogowski forderte: "Die Banken müssen bei der Stange bleiben". Er kritisierte, oft genug sei es nicht die Bonitätsbewertung eines Kunden, die zu negativen Kreditentscheidungen führe, sondern die geschäftspolitische Strategie der Banken selbst. Nur über bessere Finanzierungsbedingungen für die Wirtschaft könne es die Investitionen geben, die für einen Aufschwung unverzichtbar seien, mahnten Reich und Rogowski.

weiter....

http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=473356&section=news

Der Währungs-Interessen-Krieg!

Die Aussagen könnten nicht gegensätzlicher sein

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Laut einem Bericht der "Time of London" werden die Kosten, die die japanische Regierung zur Schwächung des Yen an den Währungsmärkten im Geschäftsjahr bis Ende März in Kauf nehmen werden muss, auf 7.8 Billionen Yen (entspricht US$73 Milliarden).

© BörseGo

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Interventionen bescheren Japans Notenbank billionenschwere Kursverluste

(Bernd Weiler)

Experten warnen vor den Folgen einer anhaltenden Dollar-Baisse

mehr....

http://www.welt.de/data/2004/03/11/249581.html

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Weitere Presse Meldungen zum "Währungskrieg":

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Japans Interventionen belasten Bank Austria

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US-Finanzminister Snow bekräftigt Ablehnung von Interventionen

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Japan/Tanigaki sieht keine US-Kritik an Japans Interventionen

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Snow: Interventionen tragen nicht zur Währungsstärke ...

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IWF: Japans Interventionen sind "positiv"

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DEVISEN/EZB sollte Euro-Kurs mit Interventionen unter ...

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EZB-Interventionen wenig wahrscheinl.

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Neue verbale Interventionen verfehlen Wirkung