Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Nell Sloane's daily comments


    Monday Apr 11



    GOLD: With the Dollar breaking out to the downside, it is not surprising that gold has come alive again. However, in order to manage a true breakout, June gold will have to manage a rise above $430.5 and manage to hold above critical support of $428.4. Apparently the gold market is capable of discounting the potential negatives off the IMF gold sale effort and that is mostly because of the consistent declines in the Dollar. It would seem like the US is against the sale but that issue certainly has the ability to limit the gold market, especially in its current marginally bullish setup. The weekly COT report with Options showed the Large Trader to be holding a net long position of 118,016 contracts, which is up 3,247 from the previous report. The Small Speculator position was down 3,675 contracts for a total net long position of 31,301 contracts. Therefore, the net spec and fund long in gold is roughly 149,000 contracts, which is only a moderately overbought condition. With US Trade numbers due out on Tuesday, we suspect that even more Dollar declines are ahead and that could give June gold the chance to rise above the late March consolidation high of $431.4 but with significant overhead resistance coming off the bottom of the early March chart formation around $432.5, the gold market could have a difficult task forging big gains this week. In short, the market has an upward bias but will need some significant from the fundamental front in order to entice broad based buying.


    SILVER: The silver market would appear to be poised to rise toward the critical pivot point of $7.25 but like gold, silver also has significant overhead resistance off the bottom of the February and March consolidation pattern. Fortunately silver wasn't overly spec long, as the April 5th Commitment of Traders with Options report showed the Large Trader to be holding a net long position of 35,300 contracts, which is up 1,621 from the previous report. The Small Speculator position was down 1,293 contracts for a total net long position of 23,650 contracts. Therefore, the Spec and fund long position was only 47,000 contracts long and that is an average long for the recent trade. Critical pivot point support comes in this week at $7.112 and thin resistance is seen at $7.225.


    METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 4/11/2005


    SILVER (MAY) 04/11/2005: The market now above the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The near-term upside target is at 728.0. The next area of resistance is around 724.0 and 728.0, while 1st support hits today at 709.1 and below there at 698.1.


    GOLD (APR) 04/11/2005: Rising from oversold levels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices, especially on a close above resistance. The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 428.9. The next area of resistance is around 428.1 and 428.9, while 1st support hits today at 425.7 and below there at 424.0.

    @ Schwabenpfeil


    Kann ich nun die Urlaubsvertretung fuer GATA news an dich zurueckgeben ? Dein Urlaub ist nun vorbei :))


    Den mache ich noch,ok ?



    GOLD


    COMMENTS:


    1. Now here is a piece of news with VERY significant implications for gold, silver, oil as well as other markets: I quote from the FT of Friday, April 8:


    " The US Senate will vote no later than July on legislation that would slap across the board tariffs on imports of Chinese goods unless China agrees to revalue its currency ".


    OK, IT'S SHOWDOWN TIME and there are two and a half months for the Chinese to act. I frankly don't see any other viable option but for the Chinese to revalue BY AT LEAST 15% TO 20% against the US dollar ( anything less than that would be seen as trivial as many economists/analysts have come to the conclusion that the yuan is 40% undervalued ) as a first step measure. How precisely the Chinese decide to revalue is an open question ( all at once or in a step ladder fashion and against a basket of currencies including the US dollar or just the dollar ) but revalue they must, in my opinion, and I think they will do this before the debates begin in the US Senate since once that starts the results may be far more damaging for them then to act preemptively. I believe investors/traders will agree with my thinking and act NOW on the assumption that revaluation is in the cards in the near term. Here are some of the potential ramifications as I see them:


    i. Anything denominated in US dollars in the world markets becomes immediately less costly to the Chinese by the amount of the revaluation and that means GOLD, SILVER, AND OIL among other commodities. This would be happening just as the Chinese banks are opening up the cash/bar gold market to the Chinese public in an unprecedented fashion. This is so important that I will quote directly from an article in the Shanghai Daily News of April 4, 2005:


    " The China Construction Bank will lead the other Chinese banks in entering the gold trade. The bank has announced a plan to start its own bullion sale next month in eight of its branches nationwide, including Shanghai, the Youth Daily reported. Previously, banks only helped gold manufacturers to sell their products. CCB has branded the new product as " Long Ding Jin " in Chinese and is having Shanghai Gold Exchange member companies produce the bullion, the same report said. THE BULLION WILL COME IN A SERIES OF SIZES, SUCH AS 50 GRAMS AND 100 GRAMS. TO ENSURE A SUFFICIENT SUPPLY FOR INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS, CCB WILL SELL THE BULLION OVER THE COUNTER RATHER THAN RECEIVING BOOKINGS ( I hope they set up a branch here soon since I would love to buy over the counter too ). Seeking to create new profit sources, and MOTIVATED BY THE DOMESTIC ZEAL FOR THE NEWLY OPENED GOLD TRADE , China's banks are eager to start the individual gold trade, analysts said. As well, THE OTHER THREE OF THE COUNTRY'S ' BIG FOUR ' STATE-OWNED BANKS HAVE OBTAINED CENTRAL BANK APPROVAL FOR GOLD SALES AND ARE PREPARING TO UNVEIL THEIR OWN GOLD BUSINESS PLANS. While China Agricultural Bank is still considering introducing its own branded gold business, the Bank of China has said it has a plan to start gold sales this year. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China will create a gold trade product in cooperation with the Shanghai Gold Exchange. "


    In conclusion, the fastest growing economy on the planet with no material slowdown in sight, whose population has revered gold for millenia, is going to revalue its currency sooner than later making gold that much less expensive and, at the same time, allowing the purchase of gold over the counter in small bar sizes and coins accessible to the general public over a wide distribution area. This has to be one of the most bullish set of fundamentals to enter the gold market in a very long time. As Bill Murphy would surely comment, who cares about expensive Italian gold jewelry design when you have this mega tsunami demand coming from the East. How do you say " Hello " in Chinese ?


    It is now Monday morning 10:08 ET and I started to write this Saturday evening but have been interrupted from completing this essay due to circumstances beyond my control and I want to get it to you immediately in view of its importance and urgency. I will finish in detail my analysis of gold, silver, and the US stock market this evening and will post it then. Many have asked me to post more often and I plan to do so twice weekly on a minimal cost subscription basis and if you are interested please email me at royalpalmtrading@adelphia.net and you will be notified shortly.


    Wishing you successful investing,


    Michel de Chabert-Ostland

    Gold Doesn't Depend on the Dollar. The Dollar Depends on Gold!


    What everyone is going to be shocked to find out is that gold and the dollar will rise together as the Kondratieff winter gets underway. That is when the real gold bull market will begin and it will begin because confidence in debt money will begin to mount. And a symptom of declining confidence in "debt money" will be widening credit spreads. Bob Hoye does quite a lot of work analyzing this matter and he suggests that another symptom then will also be a steepening of the yield curve as investors flee out of the long end of the yield curve into short term lenders in order to gain liquidity. We will watch that carefully. We note that during the 1930's, early in that decade of deflation, treasury interest rates shot up. Then they slowly declined until about 1940. A rising interest rate could be in fact the straw that breaks the back of inflation which would then cause the establishment to lose control. :rolleyes:


    *******************
    April 10, 2005


    Jay Taylor, Editor of J Taylor's Gold & Technology Stocks

    China allows online gold sales to boost demand



    Mon April 11, 2005 10:11 AM GMT+02:00
    SINGAPORE (Reuters) - China has said private investors may buy and sell gold through the Internet, its latest move to boost demand for the precious metal, industry sources said on Monday.


    From late March, individuals have been able to buy gold for investment online from the Bank of China and other selected banks which are members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, they said.


    Earlier this year, China cut the import tax on jewellery to 21.3 percent from 23.3 percent in 2004 to help encourage foreign investors to set up jewellery factories as well as to boost consumption in one of the world's largest buyers.


    "Investors in China can now buy and sell gold through Internet banking with certain banks which provide the service," said Albert Cheng, managing director Far East for the industry-backed World Gold Council.


    Through Internet banking, investors can transfer money from their bank account into a gold saving account, making gold trading more convenient, said Cheng.


    An official at the Shanghai Gold Exchange said China now allowed online gold transactions.


    China is gradually liberalising its gold market but a few restrictions, such as the import tax, remain. Beijing still imposes a 17 percent Value-Added Tax that local dealers have to pay to import gold jewellery into China.


    But gold is now traded freely at world prices on the exchange, which began operations in 2002.


    "Starting March 28, individuals in China can buy and sell gold through their PC. It is similar to buying and selling stocks," said one dealer in Shanghai. "I think this is a right move."


    Dealers said China's gold demand was expected to have risen 15 percent last year to around 314 tonnes as the country liberalised its bullion market.


    "I'm not sure about March 28, but I can assure you this has taken place in China," said the official at the Shanghai Exchange, referring to online gold dealing.


    The Bank of China has issued gold bars called "2008" in the run-up to hosting the 2008 Olympics, the official said, adding the bars may be bought by local investors online.


    Spot gold was trading at $426.90/427.65 an ounce by 0654 GMT, versus $426.60/427.30 late in New York on Friday.

    @ Gmorning Peter (heute bitte weniger fragen,lese mal mehr) ;)
    Are you lonely ??? :(


    The Coming Deflation Scare


    Steve Saville


    Below is an extract from a commentary originally posted at http://www.speculative-investor.com on 6th April 2005:


    In the 5th January Interim Update we said: "...if the various markets do roughly what we expect them to do then another big deflation scare is probably on the cards for 2005-2006. In particular, if a) gold and gold stocks experience normal mid-cycle corrections over much of this year, b) the stock market peaks during the first quarter of this year and then declines into the next 4-year cycle bottom (due in the second half of 2006), and c) commodities trend lower between the second quarter of this year and the third quarter of 2006 in synch with reduced global growth expectations and a strengthening US$, then deflation fears will once again begin to dominate the financial landscape. However, it's a very good bet that the end result of the 2005-2006 deflation scare will be the same as the result of every other perceived deflation threat of the past 70 years -- more inflation, one of the main effects of which will be currency depreciation."

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A